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Gold, Discussion
Mags
post Posted: Jul 20 2018, 09:23 AM
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QUOTE
so, this time it's different?


I finally got around to watching the big short, and yes of course it's a hollywood dress up.

But the thing I completely missed/forgot about, was even though the shorter's were right, the market kept pricing bonds dearer, the complete inverse of what should really be happening.

And that's been a good lesson for me: As a small investor, I often can't believe what I see going on around me. And I used to get angry, confused, question myself.

But what the market does, and logic reality are two very, very different things. So I need to embrace that me thinks.

I find my thought process is like the two young fella's in the big short:
A: Either we are wrong, and we're toast or
B: We are right, even though the market disagrees, so I'd better go in harder.

If you're right, and have the financial means to go in harder (safely), I'm gonna do that.

People dumping PM's 10 years into a Yanky bull market: It's highly likely they are WRONG.


Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 20 2018, 01:18 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jul 19 2018, 08:25 PM

QUOTE
But then again, in this era, a lot of the old rules have been discarded
- so, this time it's different?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Mags  mullokintyre  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 19 2018, 08:25 PM
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Gold is looking like it will have an 11 in front of the price soon.
Some fairly hard selling of PM's is a little surprising.
Giving the rising interest rates, expected inflation, currencies awash still with cheap money.
These are the classic signs of a an expected run up in PM's.
But then again, in this era, a lot of the old rules have been discarded.

mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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nipper
post Posted: May 18 2018, 09:38 AM
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Gold was flat after sliding to a fresh 2018 low on Thursday as another rise in US bond yields held the US dollar index near its 2018 peak.

The precious metal has fallen more than two per cent this week on gains in the US currency and a rise in US 10-year Treasury yields to seven-year highs. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

But gold got some support from geopolitical strife in North Korea. Spot gold was flat at $US1,290.51 per ounce, off an earlier four-and-a-half- month low of $US1,285.41. US gold futures for June delivery settled down $US2.10, or 0.2 per cent, at $US1,289.40 per ounce.

The US dollar has climbed nearly four per cent this quarter on expectations the US Federal Reserve will lift US interest rates further this year to curb inflation, at a time when othercentral banks are still keeping monetary policy loose.

“The dollar and the interest rates are what’s really driving gold,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at Everbank.

“Gold has further down to go, because the dollar has room to go higher.” The euro remains under pressure, hovering near a five-month low on concerns that political developments in Italy could cause wider disruption in the common currency bloc.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  lgrif  
 
marketwinner
post Posted: May 13 2018, 05:19 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ May 2 2018, 06:37 PM

Sanctions will impact on Iran’s trade in gold and other precious metals, graphite and coal, metals such as aluminum and steel, the country’s automobile sector and luxury products such as Iranian-origin carpets and caviar etc. ‘In 2016, Iran was the fifth-largest buyer of gold jewelry. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold jewelry purchases in Iran during the first three months of 2017 rose 27 percent. (four-year high). There could be some pressure for gold prices as a result of trade restrictions on above commodities and items.

 
triage
post Posted: May 2 2018, 06:37 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 2 2018, 04:43 PM

Mick, I generally have the opposite problem to you. When I'm drafting comments up they all make perfect sense but then I hit the submit button and the message gets all vague and garbled. rolleyes.gif

That Egyptian bloke sounds as dodgey as. Firstly, sorry but being dodgey would have been a prerequisite to get into the telecommunications business in North Korea. And how is it possible that he has half of his $5.7b fortune sitting around so as to be available to buy bullion with. If not tied up in his own businesses surely it would be invested in other ventures and in property?



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 


mullokintyre
post Posted: May 2 2018, 04:43 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 2 2018, 09:47 AM


QUOTE
a spectacularly wrong bit of chat reading!

One of the problems with sharescene is the small font that your typing appears in as you type.
The submitted message appears in a larger readable font ok.
My tired old eyes struggle to read what I have typed.
And spell check is of little use if you leave out a letter from a word such as Chart, and end up with another correctly spelled word!
Mick




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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
blacksheep
post Posted: May 2 2018, 11:40 AM
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This Billionaire Has Put Half His Net Worth Into Gold
May 1, 2018, 2:07 PM GMT+10
[quote]Egypt’s Sawiris has put half his entire net worth into gold
He’s been waiting 10 years for North Korea stakes to pay off

Some big investors see warning signs ahead for markets but are holding their positions. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris is taking action: He’s put half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold.

He said in an interview Monday that he believes gold prices will rally further, reaching $1,800 per ounce from just above $1,300 now, while “overvalued” stock markets crash.[/quote]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...forecasts-crash



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
early birds
post Posted: May 2 2018, 11:04 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 2 2018, 09:47 AM

yeah guys
don't forget we still have north Korea balloon in the air and trade war between USA and China { never know it might develop into something esp trump keeps play Taiwan card}
keep some gold for insurance might be a wise move.




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nipper
post Posted: May 2 2018, 09:47 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 2 2018, 07:59 AM

QUOTE
a spectacularly wrong bit of chat reading!
talk about it, Mick!



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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