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post Posted: Oct 11 2020, 08:19 PM
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A mate of mine sent me the following,

The correct way to see the betting markets is as follows….

Bookmaking works on the notion that the bookie can take total bets in such a way that the potential liability on either competitor is less than the total which is bet, thus ensuring a profit on either result. Example: Competitor A is at $1.45 and competitor B at $2.90. If $2 million is on A and $1 million on B then a win for a will see $2.9 million paid out and a win for B will also see $2.9 million paid out. As there has been a total of $3 million bet then the bookie keeps $100,000 profit in either case

In reality it’s difficult to balance it this exactly and usually the punters rush the favourite in such a manner that, in the above example you may get $2.2 million on A and only $800,000 on B. which means that a win for A will see the bookie pay out $3.19 million (a loss of $190,000) and paying out only$2.32 million on B ( a profit of $680,000). such a large disparity is not usual, but in general the bookie wins more on outsider upsets….The famous catch-cry from racing commentators when an outsider comes steaming home in the straight is “and now the bookies are cheering”! = they will win bigly.

Ok, so in the current election Betfair has taken $213 Million thus far. Joe is $1.50 and Donald is $3. there is $85 million on Joe and $113 million on Donald. this is flat out “wrong”. How can the hot fav have so much less money on it than the longshot? The payout for a Joe victory is very little, while the liability on Donald is huge. Wrong, wrong, wrong. “Why is it so?”, asked the Professor of Puntology!

Hmmm. the answer is that Betfair pits punters against punters. There is no bookie directing the odds. Dumb-ass democratic punters are being taken to the cleaners by the Donsld crew.

At big bookies the stupid punters are known as the “squares” and the smarties as the “sharps”. The bookies are also “sharp” and they will limit any punter whom they recognize as being sharp too. However at a betting exchange the sharps are not limited, and have free reign to be just like bookies and are able to cream the squares at their leisure. And here’s where we are at: leftists and dopes are flocking to get a thrashing. you could call the local zoo and ask them about lemmings and lemming behaviour if you feel like it.

Finally, a few extras. A) At Betfair the also-rans have prices and some money on them from when the primaries etc all began. Betfair will be keeping all that dough unless Donald or Joe drop out before election day. That’s about $15 million; nearly all on Dems. B) This is a race with no form, (except that Donald won easily last time, of course) so the only guide is the polls. That they are manipulated to try to dispirit Donald voters is obvious, but a pleasant side benefit is that Democrat punters believe them and are now the classic Turkeys lining up for thanksgiving. C) When someone puts $1 on Joe at $1.50 this means a Trump supporter is putting up the 50 cents theycould win. When someone puts $1 on Donald a Joe-supporter is offering the $2 that that bettor will win. Thus…on average the Donald lovers are in the hole for around $45 million should Joe come home first, and the Joe supporters are owing about $200 million to Donald backers. The Democratic faithful are nuts!


sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

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post Posted: Sep 25 2020, 12:11 PM
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In Reply To: jacsar's post @ Sep 25 2020, 11:09 AM

Certainly interesting viewing.
As an example of the difference between causation and correlation, it is instructive to note the correlation of the suns 22 year cycle with Howes cycles.

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post Posted: Sep 25 2020, 11:09 AM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Sep 24 2020, 06:59 PM

Hi triage, here is a fascinating little clip made by Neil Howe co author of the 4th Turning that runs 15 min on human cycles.... ..cheers

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post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 06:59 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 24 2020, 11:16 AM

I gave up looking for sensible investment analysis from Bill Bonner and Daily Reckoning over a decade ago. I'm hardly likely to take heed of any political analysis from them. Anyway to focus on Joe's mental deterioration and ignore Trumpy's who is keen on "herd mentality" and recently argued that the flu epidemic of 1918 caused the end of WW2 does suggest a certain bias.

My own view is that it is a sign of American weakness that so many of their leaders are in their 70's and over - that judge that recently died should have retired long ago. I would not totally disregard the views of Pelosi and the turtle (is it McConnell?), Trumpy and Biden etc but as good as they are now they were better 10 or 20 years ago. Which means they are taking the jobs of others who are better than them. Anyway I'm not a yank so they will do what they will do.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 11:16 AM
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Jim Rickards, in his Daily reckoning newsletter reckons there may be some election wilddcards coming up.
here are some he suggested.
Investors need to be on guard against one or more surprises that can come without warning. I call these the “wildcards” in the election season. It’s hard to know which one might emerge, but it’s not hard to forecast that at least one of them will. Investors should prepare accordingly. Here they are:

The Replacement of Joe Biden
The first wildcard is the potential that Joe Biden will be removed from the ticket soon and replaced by a more acceptable candidate, possibly New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. This is not as far-fetched as it sounds.

Biden is suffering acute cognitive decline. Whether this is dementia, early-onset Alzheimer’s Disease or the result of Biden’s two aneurysm-related neurosurgeries in the 1970s is hard to say without direct medical examination. Still, the cognitive impairment is obvious based on Biden’s vacant stare, confused demeanor and his inability to form sentences, complete thoughts or stay on topic.

The Biden campaign strategy so far has been to keep Biden under wraps and stuck in his basement. He does not do press conferences and his few interviews involve soft-ball questions and pre-scripted answers. Policies aside, the thought of Biden having to react in the midst of a crisis or a war will embolden America’s enemies and should chill Americans to the bone.

The crunch will come on September 29. That’s the date of the first presidential debate. Trump is an underrated debater with more command of the facts than critics give him credit for. He did well against Clinton in 2016 and will do the same if he faces Biden.

The real problem is not whether Biden can win a debate; it’s whether he can stand on the stage and speak and act coherently. Even with rehearsal and medication, this will prove exceedingly difficult.

The Democrats’ options are to replace Biden before the debate (which can be done at the DNC level without new primaries or a new convention), cancel the debates or go ahead and hope for the best.

The candidate replacement option doesn’t just solve the debate problem, it also gives the Democrats a better chance of a win in November. Canceling the debates (no doubt by playing the COVID-card) is a solution but it carries its own costs and highlights the problem (cognitive decline) it was meant to solve. Letting Biden go onstage live with Trump may be the riskiest choice of all.

There are no good solutions to having a mentally impaired candidate. In a normal election against a conventional Republican incumbent, Biden wouldn’t stand a chance. Of course, Trump’s not a conventional Republican incumbent, so a Biden vote is really an anti-Trump vote.

Any of the above choices set the race up for an unexpected shock, especially since Biden’s condition has been largely covered-up by a compliant media. Investors should brace for a shock on this front in the coming weeks.

Mail-in Ballots
Another shock-in-the-making is election day chaos resulting from the surge in mail-in ballots. These are not traditional absentee ballots that have long been used and have proved useful. This involves tens of millions of mail-in ballots intended to replace polling places and voting booths.

We can leave aside the issue of fraud in mail-in ballots (that’s a big issue but will likely not arise on election day itself; it can take weeks or months to identify and investigate such cases). The immediate problem is counting the ballots. Many mail-in ballots arrive at the last minute or even after election day. There will be issues concerning postmarks, matching signatures, timely delivery and the sheer time it takes to open the mail and visually inspect each ballot.

This mail-in ballot chaos won’t matter in states such as California or New York where Trump has almost no chance to win. The mail-in ballots will affect the final vote count, but they won’t affect the election winner because those states are solidly in the Biden column.

But, it could be crucial in swing states such as Michigan where Trump won in 2016 by 10,700 votes, and where millions of mail-in ballots are expected to be cast. What this means is that the election will not be decided on election day; it may take days or weeks to count the ballots and announce the winner in key states that will determine the electoral outcome.

Both sides are gearing up for this. The Trump and Biden campaigns have hired over 600 lawyers each to fan out across fifty states on election day demanding court orders on extended voting hours, impoundment of mail-in ballots and mandatory injunctions against certifying results.

Neither side will concede the election until these legal contests are resolved. A similar stalemate ensued in the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. But, that was confined to a few counties in a single state, Florida. This stalemate will involve perhaps seven to ten states, all crucial to the outcome.

Two-time presidential loser Hillary Clinton added fuel to this fire by telling Showtime: “Joe Biden should not concede under any circumstances because I think this is going to drag out.”

This reveals the Democrats are already preparing for election day chaos.

The recent hoax about supposed efforts by the U.S. Postal Service to remove mailboxes to frustrate mail-in ballots is laying the predicate for election day charges of malfeasance. The reality is that mailboxes are routinely relocated for normal logistical reasons and the vast majority of mailbox relocations were done during the Obama administration.

The Chaos After Election Day Is Coming
Is there anything on the horizon worse than chaos on election day? Yes. It’s the prospect of chaos on the day after.

The one certain forecast is that the next two months will be a wild ride.

The Black Lives Matter and Antifa factions are preparing for a possible Trump victory. For them, it will be a vindication of their view that American democracy is inherently flawed, and the only solution is to destroy the system and start over.

The destruction will begin within 24 hours of a Trump victory in cities all over America. The riots and looting in Portland, Seattle, New York, Chicago and other major cities are just a warm-up for what will happen in the aftermath of a Trump victory.

The bottom line for investors is that the next 70 days will be among the most volatile in U.S. political history. An uncertain election outcome with extreme differences between the candidates would be enough to cause market volatility.

When one factors in a possible candidate switch, Biden’s cognitive decline, a delayed result due to mail-in ballots, refusal to concede the outcome, coast-to-coast election litigation and widespread riots, investors are facing a minefield of hidden dangers and catastrophic outcomes.

Reductions in equity allocations will reduce investor exposure to this litany of unexpected and shocking outcomes.

Cash will preserve wealth and reduce portfolio volatility. Gold will also provide a built-in hedge to adverse outcomes.

The last line is the most critical for me.
The rest is just just navel gazing.

sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
post Posted: Sep 20 2020, 09:30 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 19 2020, 12:48 PM

Yes, RBG's death has had a profound impact on many people.


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post Posted: Sep 19 2020, 12:48 PM
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News that Ruth Bader Ginsberg has died will make a push to get another conservative on the SCOTUS really quickly.
Not sure if Trump and the republicans will be able to pull it off, there is a veru good argument that says wait till the election is over.
But then again, it might be argued that there needs to be an odd number so as to negate the prospect of a "hung judiciary of 4 all.
This may be pivotal given the very likely possibility of there being numerous court challenges in the aftermath of the election.

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post Posted: Sep 19 2020, 11:34 AM
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Six weeks to go until the election. Three for NZ's.

Trump reckons there will be a vaccine before it.

The political management handbook stipulates that if you have an ace up your sleeve, play it two weeks before the election date. That way you can catch the undecided voters before they firm up in their minds what way they will go.

So we might have to wait another four weeks before we get clarity on anything.

If Trump wins, he will unleash the military against all the rabble I expect . Watch the career politicians scurry like rats from a sinking ship.

What did Uncle Mel do to us?
post Posted: Sep 5 2020, 12:03 PM
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In Reply To: henrietta's post @ Sep 5 2020, 11:52 AM

I suspect there are more than a few faceless Republican players, quite happy to let the orange buffoon open up various agendas, allowing them to slip through (and profit).

It is hard to be optimistic about many things, these days.

"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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post Posted: Sep 5 2020, 11:52 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Sep 5 2020, 11:25 AM

At least we know what we've got, and where we are with Trump, and I don't think he is senile.

Biden will just do as he's told by possibly faceless men. Not sure I want that.


"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional

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