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nipper
Posted on: Today, 07:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Chairman Chris Vonwiller has sold two million shares for "a number of personal reasons" and delivered himself a $58 million payday after selling at $29 a share. He remains the company's largest shareholder with approximately nine million shares, or around 7.5 per cent of issued capital. His remaining stake is worth around $272 million.

Appen chief executive Mark Brayan sold 95,535 shares, pocketing $2.9 million, to satisfy tax obligations and diversify his personal investments. He sold at $30.60 a share.

Non-executive director Bill Pulver sold 275,000 shares, delivering a windfall of around $8.4 million. He sold at $30.68 a share

Appen's share price closed at $30.48. Shares have rallied from a low of $17.14 on March 12.
  Forum: NZX

nipper
Posted on: Today, 02:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Magellan hails new era for active ETFs with Airlie launch
QUOTE
Funds management giant Magellan has heralded the arrival of the Quoted fund era with the listing of its Airlie Australian Share fund on the stock market.

The Australian equity fund has existed as an unlisted fund but it is now concurrently available for investors to buy and sell on the exchange in addition to the traditional application and redemption process.

Quoted funds have been billed by some as a potential game changer in funds management as it allows managers with open ended unlisted funds to raise money on the exchange.

Magellan chief executive Brett Cairns told The Australian Financial Review that quoted funds were the "next evolution" in accessing funds management products following the advent of listed investment companies, unlisted funds, exchange traded funds and active exchange traded funds.

"It's a logical extension and simplifies access for investors and provides more choice," he said.

Fund administrator Mainstream said it invested heavily in creating the single system that could handle listed and unlisted funds in a repository with a share registry allowing exposures to be interchanged.

"An investment manager of an unlisted unit trust can now also have access to listed distribution channels without paying for dual fund structures or bespoke messaging systems, said Martin Smith, the chief executive of the fund administrator, Mainstream.


The Quoted Fund structure has been speculated as being an integral part of Magellan's future plans to deliver retirement products.

Magellan also reported on Thursday that its assets under management had grown from $96.9 billion to $98.45 billion in May, of which Australian equities account for $7.09 billion. In May, the group experienced net outflows of $288 million.

The Airlie Australian Share Fund will trade under the ticker AASF as of Thursday
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

wow, nearly a decade since people sensibly didn't comment on this plaything.
Takeover offer at 80c may put it away, or even a second bidder emerge?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

HAS has signed up a German auto company
QUOTE
binding Master Agreement (MA) with one of the leading German automotive Tier 1 supplier, Schaeffler Technologies AG (Schaeffler) for the targeted supply of its MREC, being the product mined and processed from the Company's Yangibana Project in the Gascoyne region, Western Australia.

This Master Agreement governs in general the purchasing, scheduling, quality compliance and regulations, and ethical business conduct between Hastings and Schaeffler.

With the signing of this Master Agreement, Schaeffler also continues to support Hastings in its eligibility for the German government's untied loan guarantee scheme (known as UFK) in its project financing for the construction of its mine and processing plant in the Upper Gascoyne of Western Australia.

Since the announcement of the MOU in June 2019, Schaeffler and Hastings have expressed their joint commitment to work together on a long term partnership to enable Schaeffler to develop an independent supply chain for its e-motor business for the emerging Electric Vehicle industry. Neodymium and praseodymium are critical raw materials used in the manufacture of permanent magnets, the key component found in electric motors.

Schaeffler is a global automotive and industrial supplier of high-precision components and systems in engine, transmission, and chassis applications, as well as rolling and plain bearing solutions for a large number of industrial applications, primarily focussed on the automotive industry.
now the hard part
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

AUD safe haven?
also Trade tilting our way?
And no Aussie tourists leaving for Nth Hemisphere to spend Kids Inheritances.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Copper trading in New York jumped more than 2% to $2.4775 a pound ($5,460 a tonne) in afternoon trade, bring the bellwether metals gains since its mid-March low to more than 25%.

CNBC reports Bank of America analysts increased their price forecast for copper in 2020 by 5.4% to $5,620 per tonne.

Given its widespread use in industry and construction, the expected contraction in the global economy this year could translate into double digit declines in copper consumption according to BofA:

However, they questioned whether falls in purchases to such a degree were realistic, and suggested that while Western economies may not completely mirror the rebound seen in China, the easing of lockdown measures would likely facilitate a rise in raw material purchases around the world.

QUOTE
We also note that the current recession is different to the usual downturns on various other metrics: the epicenter is in services, not manufacturing; governments are gearing up to implement remarkable fiscal stimulus packages, reflected in Chinas NPC and Europes Next Generation EU initiative, the note read
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 09:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Not sure self loathing is an admirable trait.

To me, if the world has to split, and we do seem to polarise, then the division would be along the lines of Aspirational and Entitlement based. I align with the former, not the latter.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 06:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Magellan Financial Group co-founder, Chris Mackay, has quietly turned extremely bearish on equities, switching almost half the holdings in his $1.6 billion global equities fund, building a 46.4 per cent cash position as of May 29, mostly held in US dollars.

At the start of the year, the fund's cash levels were just 2.2 per cent, implying the manager sold nearly half his equities holdings over 2020. Through May, Mr Mackay's fund sold $192.8 million worth of assets with purchases of less than $1 million in a near all-in bet on another market correction.

He suggested the market was too optimistic over the likelihood of a COVID-19 vaccine.

"Business owners, political leaders and the general public appear to be more optimistic, around the world, as are recipients of fiscal payments travelling hundreds of miles to queue for hours for gaming venues reopening."

Mackay further justified the sale by arguing the virus will have long-term economic consequences.

"Heavily populated cities, globalisation and widespread global travel are crucial for ongoing economic growth and economic sufficiency for billions of people, but they are the fuel for future airborne viruses spreading. "Longer term, even if this pandemic is promptly brought under control, conditions for ready transmission remain."

He went on to attribute the shock rise in global equity markets over May, which included a 9.1 per cent return for the Nasdaq, partly to the rising influence of exchange traded funds (ETFs). "ETF trading is almost never associated with fundamental analysis of the underlying values compared with market prices of the individual components."

Mr Mackay also argued the unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy response to the pandemic may have long-term consequences that the short-term focused market has not priced in.

"Cyclicality may be disguised and underestimated during the heaviest phases of fiscal and monetary stimulus," he told investors. "Historically there have been eventual limits, for example to massive bond issuance, although relatively unconstrained issuance and central bank buying may go on for extended periods. "The implications for US markets are unknown if, for example, 10-year bond rates move to say 2 per cent from 0.6 per cent. The last 30 years in Japan do not support a favourable thesis for sustained economic earnings and market growth, although the economic and market differences between leading US companies and Japan are meaningful."

Under the fund's investment limits, no single investment in a company should exceed 10 per cent of the NAV, or 20 per cent given permission from the board. MFF Capital has not publicly disclosed any hard limits on cash holdings.

Mr Mackay told investors at the end of financial 2019 that higher market prices, and sustained low-interest rates, meant that his expectations for future medium-term returns were lower.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Brickworks fining the present environment tough

QUOTE
In response to the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic:
We have reduced production to control stock levels.
In the United States we have used this opportunity to accelerate plant rationalisation activities that were already planned.
Since the start of the year, we have let go over 200 employees. These redundancies represent around 10% of our workforce, and an annualised
reduction in our cost base of around $20 million.
We have delayed all non-contracted capital spend indefinitely.
During the past two months we have accelerated various initiatives across the Group, including digital sales and marketing efforts, new product development and online training and development programs.
We are re-assured by the response of Governments in Australia and the United States ... both have indicated that construction is integral to the post COVID-19 recovery.
we believe that the construction and housing sectors will emerge as one of the stronger and more resilient sectors within the economy.
note this construction sector is only about 30% of BKW , with SOL holding and Industrial Property Trust the rest
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Jun 2 2020, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961


QUOTE
CSL is searching for plasma from recovered coronavirus patients as companies across the United States turn to higher payment rates and free rides to lure donors into collection centres.

The exact going rate for this plasma is not known, with CSL saying the value depends on a number of factors, including location and demand. However, plasma donations tend to pay as much as $US50, or up to $US70 to first-time donors and those with in-demand antibodies.

"Recovered COVID-19 donors are compensated at the same level as other speciality plasma programs (such as Anti-D and Rabies), which is at a slightly higher rate than normal donors," a CSL spokeswoman said....

Over the past month, collectors across the US have been urging donors to return to centres, assuring them coronavirus safety measures are in place. The sector has also launched a campaign for American donors called "The Fight is in Us" to encourage those that have beaten COVID-19 to donate.

"In support of those donors, the Global Plasma Alliance (which CSL is a member of) has partnered with ride sharing service, Uber, to provide complementary rides to and from plasma collection centres for those who are potentially eligible to donate convalescent COVID-19 plasma," a CSL spokeswoman said.

CSL is also collecting recovered donor plasma in Australia, though these donors will not get paid. It needs about 10 per cent of the 6000 Australians who have recovered from the virus to donate at least once so it can start research into a hyperimmune treatment. It said while early donations have been promising, more are needed.



  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Iress IRE has launched a takeover bid for Onevue Holdings at 40c per share. The offer values the company at $107m.

The price is a 66.7 per cent premium to the wealth managers last closing share price of 24c.

The friendly deal sees Iress, a financial software business, gain access to OneVues wealth management software.

Iress will raise $170m to help fund the transaction, with Goldman Sachs underwriting a $150m placement at $10.42, a 7 per cent discount to its last closing share price.
The deal is expected to conclude in late September.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 03:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I was planning to go fishing in my new Zegna suit, but you seem to imply they are mutually exclusive.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

One of the biggest shake-ups in the influential global indices operated by MSCI in years has triggered a flurry of share moves on the ASX as fund managers in Australia and offshore scramble to readjust their portfolio.

The index shake-up is being blamed for the massive volume of shares changing hands on Friday with nearly 10 per cent of companies including Boral and Incitec Pivot changing hands in the last few minutes of trade. The changes, which has seen buy now pay later company Afterpay and gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star emerge as the biggest winners, is expected to be felt over coming days.

The index changes, which occur twice a year, took effect from the close of trade on Friday.

The MSCI is one of the most followed indexes in the world and billions of dollars follows what they do, said Bell Potter director of institutional sales Richard Coppleson. He noted that with over $US1.6 trillion benchmarked on MSCI indexes by global fund managers, small changes could often have a significant effect.


Under the changes outlined by MSCI last month, three stocks were added to the key MSCI Australia index and eight were removed.

Afterpay, Evolution and Northern Star were added to the main country index. Key removals were Alumina, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Boral, Challenger, Flight Centre, Harvey Norman, Incitec Pivot and Worley
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

After cap raise, a SPP. I took part in it; I committed the full amount which was dialed back to $11k seeing the trading price was well above $2.20 offer. There was a limit and like other offers, scale back loomed.

The decision was to accept all money so $1.85 mill taken in rather than the original $750k.

... Trading has held up and closing on $3.70 which is a new high. ....so I can't complain.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Jun 1 2020, 01:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Took part in the SPP; I committed the full $30k seeing the trading price was well above $9.50 offer. But, as with prior offers, scale back loomed. Ended with less than 25% or $6772.

Oh, well. Trading has held up and closing on $14 again so I can't complain
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 31 2020, 10:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Home of the hateful, fearful and heavily armed

(pt 1)
QUOTE
The rise of militias and armed protesters across the US is sometimes seen as a fringe right-wing issue, but it is much broader. Armed groups have formed across the political spectrum, worsening divisions the coronavirus has exposed in American society.

As I write, there are 1.7 million coronavirus cases in the US and more than 100,000 deaths. The little county where I live only a half-million people, in a part-urban, part-wilderness area of the Rocky Mountains has a death toll higher than Australia and New Zealand combined. And this is one of the safe places, positively benign compared with hot spots such as New York or New Jersey with deaths in the tens of thousands.

Second to its health impact, the economic crisis wrought by government-imposed lockdowns has grabbed the most attention: 40 million Americans were forced on to the dole in the past 10 weeks. The job market, strong until mid-March, has fallen off a cliff. A flood of bankruptcies is sweeping US business; analysts expect a wave of municipal bankruptcies as tax revenue collapses. Congress has committed $US2 trillion ($3 trillion) in crisis spending, even as public debt nears $US30 trillion, or roughly 120 per cent of gross domestic product. If the first wave of the coronavirus tsunami was its health effect, the second economic devastation may be worse. But there is a third wave coming: the possibility of armed conflict towards the end of this year, when the combined health and economic impacts of the crisis will peak amid the most violently contested presidential election in memory.

Protesters, some heavily armed, are out in force to demand reopening of the economy. The husband of one leader posted a Facebook video this week expressing his readiness to take up arms against the government to prevent a "new world order" being imposed through lockdowns.

There were already many militia of varying political complexions across America; one pro-militia website lists 361 groups across all 50 states. Membership surged after the 2008 financial crisis, then accelerated as thugs from both political extremes fought each other with baseball bats, bicycle chains and pepper spray in the streets of Washington DC, Settle, Portland and Detroit. The deadly "Unite the Right" rally in normally sleepy university town of Charlottesville VA in August 2017 bought the danger home to many Americans, but the trend was longstanding.


Rioting


Rioting among groups such as Antifa (on the anarchist left), Patriot Prayer and the Proud Boys (on the alt-right) and mass demonstrations by issue-motivated groups such as Black Lives Matter, Extinction Rebellion and the Women's March kicked into high gear after Donald Trump's election.

Far-left militias such as Redneck Revolt and the John Brown Gun Club emerged, copying the methods and military-style weapons of right-wing militias while opposing their politics. Both far-right and far-left armed groups were at Charlottesville, with cadres of gun-carrying militants guarding protesters on both sides and a third-party "constitutionalist" militia, the Oath Keepers composed mainly of military and law-enforcement veterans standing by as self-appointed umpires.

In the west, a separate rural militia movement had already coalesced around "sovereign citizen" groups that rejected federal authority. Despite media portrayals of its leaders as racially motivated, in fact the sovereign citizen ideology is neither left nor right in a traditional sense it might better be described as a form of militant libertarianism with roots in the self-reliant cowboy culture of the old west. In April 2014, a dispute over grazing rights in Nevada triggered an armed stand-off between militia and federal agencies including the Bureau of Land Management and the FBI. This dispute over federal attempts to impound the cattle of a rancher named Cliven Bundy brought hundreds of militia members from across the country to Nevada where they surrounded federal agents, trained weapons on them and forced them to back down.

The 2014 stand-off ended in a bloodless militia victory, but almost two years later Bundy's son Ammon led an armed occupation of the headquarters of a federal wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. This time, things went the other way. The occupation prompted a six-week siege by federal and state agencies in January-February 2016. It resulted in the death of LaVoy Finicum, a charismatic Arizona rancher whose killing, captured on government aerial-camera footage that appears to show him with hands raised in surrender before being shot, made him a martyr.

Though Trump is as much a symptom as a cause of America's toxic polarisation, the passions he inspires among friend and foe alike have exacerbated it: during the 2016 election campaign, Arizona militias mounted armed patrols to support his border wall. In response, Redneck Revolt held a heavily armed show of force in Phoenix, Arizona, later posting a YouTube video showing members shooting semiautomatic rifles at targets displaying alt-right symbols. A few months later, Antifa convened an "anti-colonial anti-fascist community defence gathering" near Flagstaff, Arizona, that included weapons training and coaching in anti-police tactics. Today, far-left and far-right groups operate within close striking distance of each other in several border states and in "contested zones" including the Pacific Northwest, parts of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and the Carolinas.

The pandemic and the grievances inspired by heavy-handed responses to it have brought these tensions to a head. Camouflage-clad militia sporting semiautomatic rifles and body armour and riding in military-surplus trucks joined an armed protest against the governor of Pennsylvania in April. Similar protests took place in Ohio and North Dakota. A week later demonstrators, some carrying AK-47 rifles, swarmed into the state capital in Lansing, Michigan, to confront politicians. A racial edge also emerged: a week after the Lansing incident a group of African-Americans, armed with AR-15 rifles and automatic pistols, mounted a show of force outside the Michigan State Capitol building to support a black member of the legislature. Class inequities, which track closely with racial disparities here, have prompted socialist groups notably Antifa but also traditionally nonviolent Trotskyist and anarchist networks to arm themselves for an incipient revolutionary moment.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 31 2020, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Home of the hateful, fearful and heavily armed
(.....pt 2)
QUOTE
In Minneapolis, the killing by white police officers of an unarmed black man, George Floyd, brought thousands of protesters on to the streets for several nights of rioting, with multiple buildings and cars burned and shopping malls and restaurants looted. By Thursday, militarised police were on the streets firing tear gas and rubber bullets against vociferous opposition. At least one person has been killed in the riots and the Minnesota National Guard is expected to join the police in attempting to restore order.

Thus, far from being a purely right-wing phenomenon, rifts within US society that are most stressed by the coronavirus urban versus rural interests, racial and class tensions, state overreach versus anti-government militancy, far left against alt-right, "collectivist" coastal elites versus rugged individualists in "flyover country" align with pre-existing grievances. And heavily armed actors across the spectrum are poised to exploit them.

One reason for the overemphasis on right-wing extremism, I believe, is that analysts often mischaracterise armed actors as "hate groups". It is absolutely true that the intense hatred from right-wing extremists dwarfs most other groups. But the focus on hate is a misunderstanding of what drives violence in internal conflicts.

As Stathis Kalyvas demonstrated a decade ago in The Logic of Violence in Civil War, the worst atrocities are driven not by hate but by fear. Fear of other groups, encroachment of those groups into one's territory and collapse of confidence in government's ability to impartially keep the peace are the key factors that provoke communal violence. Hate follows and rationalises fear, not the other way around. And fear of the coronavirus, alongside the demonstrable inability of government to keep people safe, is driving today's growth in armed militancy.

Like Iraq, like Somalia

To me, current conditions feel disturbingly similar to things I have seen in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia and Colombia. Indeed, the theory of guerrilla and unconventional warfare fits today's situation all too well.

If we visualise an armed movement as a pyramid, then the thousands of protesters on the street (and the tens of thousands who support and sympathise with them but stay home) represent the mass base. A smaller group of organisers and support networks (physical and virtual) plays an auxiliary role further up the pyramid. The armed, gun-toting element is smaller still, but higher in skill, weaponry, organisation and motivation. It's worth remembering that almost three million Americans served in Iraq and Afghanistan, coming home familiar with urban and rural guerrilla warfare to a country where 41 per cent of people own a gun or live with someone who does.

The US has no national firearms register, so only estimates are possible, but analysts believe around 100 million firearms are in private hands in the US, and hundreds of billions of rounds of ammunition. Given widespread combat experience from the war on terror, this reservoir of military potential sets the US apart from any other Western democracy.

The pandemic has seen a surge in gun purchases, with background checks spiking to their highest number. Many of these are first-time buyers from the progressive end of politics, who traditionally shun firearms and have little knowledge of weapon safety.

Racial war, class war

More worrying, on left and right, are underground groups including so-called "accelerationists". These tend to be small, secretive and far more violent than the militias or mass movements. They follow a decentralised command-and-control philosophy known as "leaderless resistance" that was pioneered by far-right groups in the 1980s but has since been taken up by terrorists across the political spectrum, including jihadists. Their goal is to accelerate the collapse of a social order they see as doomed, by bringing on a racial war, a class war or both.

Underground networks operate using a clandestine cell structure, and communicate via the deep web and tools such as Telegram or RocketChat, secure-messaging apps that have become havens for extremists as more open channels, including chat rooms such as the neo-Nazi forum Iron March, have been shut down.

Language policing on social media has not only pushed accelerationist groups underground; it has created a whole new language.

The term "Boogaloo" is widely used for the coming civil war. Variants coined to avoid Twitter censors include "The Big Igloo" or "The Big Luau", the last explaining why Hawaiian shirts are popular among militias. Memes from television ("Winter is Coming", "Cowabunga") are popular, as are meme-based references such as "Spicy Time" or acronyms such as BAMN ("by any means necessary") and BFYTW ("because f..k you, that's why"). Some call the urban guerrilla aspect of the Boogaloo "Minecrafting": Twitter threads seeming to discuss the game may actually refer to the coming conflict context is everything. Some discussion hides in plain sight on social media: more open, practical and gruesome conversations are left to the deep web, Telegram or neo-Nazi sites such as Daily Stormer, which resides on the orphaned former Soviet ".su" internet domain as a way to avoid censorship. Doctoral dissertations could be written on the kaleidoscope of visual symbols used by groups, left and right, to signal allegiances.

Accelerationism has a long history on the Marxist left and among environmental activists such as Earth Liberation Front or Earth First! It has since been embraced by right-wing extremists including 2019 Christchurch killer Brenton Tarrant, whose manifesto included environmentalist ideology and was celebrated by neo-Nazi ecoterrorist group Green Brigade.

Other right-wing accelerationist groups include Atomwaffen Division (which has a presence in Australia) and The Base, a white-supremacist group founded in mid-2018 whose name is a play on al-Qa'ida ("the base" in Arabic). FBI agents targeted The Base after its members allegedly sought to attack a massive pro-gun rally outside the Virginia State Capitol building in Richmond in January. In a classic accelerationist move, they planned to infiltrate the rally, start shooting both protesters and law enforcement officers, provoke a massacre and thereby convert a peaceful (albeit armed) demonstration into a militant uprising.

The group's leader, until recently known by his nom de guerre "Norman Spear", was unmasked in January as Rinaldo Nazzaro, a New Jersey native based in St Petersburg, Russia, from where he directed cells in Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. There is no public evidence of any relationship between Nazzaro and Russian intelligence, though his presence in Russia triggered speculation in the media and within The Base itself. But this highlights another risk factor for 2020: the possibility of foreign interference astride the upcoming presidential election.

A new cold war

The US and China are fast descending into a new cold war, as recriminations over the pandemic heighten conflicts that were already acute. Each is seeking to improve its military position against the other: the Chinese navy has ramped up activity in the South China Sea, for example, while US forces mounted more incursions into the area in the past three months than in all of last year. China's history of sponsoring agents of influence in the US and other Western countries (including Australia) and its track record of cyber-espionage and technology theft make it a reasonable assumption that some (with or without official backing) may be considering ways to exploit America's internal tensions. Indeed, it would be intelligence malpractice if they were not.

Likewise, Iran which lost Qassem Soleimani, head of its Revolutionary Guards covert action arm, the Quds Force, to a US drone strike in January has been on a path of military confrontation with the US for years. A series of incidents in the Middle East and the increasing pain of US economic sanctions motivate Tehran to create internal distractions for the US, relieving pressure on itself. The regime has a history of sponsoring lethal covert action inside the US most recently in 2011, when Quds Force members recruited a criminal gang in an attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador by bombing an upscale Washington, DC, restaurant.

Again, there is no public evidence of such activity at present, but Iranian operatives watching the US today would be remiss not to consider it.

If interference does occur, US armed groups probably would not know it. Just as members of The Base were dismayed to discover their leader living in Russia, militant groups in the US many of which are patriotic, albeit opposed to the current character of government would likely spurn any overt foreign approach. But anonymous funding, amplification of online messaging, offers of training or equipment through "cut-outs" such as tactical training companies or non-government organisations, or "false flag" operations (where agents of one organisation pretend to belong to another) would allow hostile foreign actors to inflame tensions.

It is, of course, impossible to say with certainty whether significant violence will occur this year. All we can conclude from the available evidence is that the risk is real and growing. We can also make some judgments about where and when violence might break out and what form it might take.

Given the pandemic health crisis, widespread economic disruption over the northern summer, then a predicted second wave of infection in October-November, peak compound impact when the combined health, economic and security effects of the coronavirus will be at their worst will likely run from late October until March-April next year, astride the next election and transition to the next presidential term.

Even without the virus, the election was already set to be a flashpoint; the combined health, economic and security effects of the pandemic could make it far worse. If Trump is re-elected, mass protests are a given, while factions within the militant left might undertake what they term "direct action". As The Base's targeting of January's Richmond rally showed, street protests are fertile ground for provocations. If Trump is defeated, elements of the militia movement or street protesters might also engage in violence.

In "contested areas" where the territories of left and right-wing militants overlap we can expect violence irrespective of the outcome. Whether it spreads will depend on level-headed political leadership and today's hyper-partisan coronavirus debate offers little hope of that. If violence does spread, it will not be a re-run of the American Civil War. Rather, given the multiplicity of groups involved, their geographical overlap and loose structure, we can expect something much more diffuse.

Remember Colombia

Perhaps the best analogy is Colombia, which saw 10 years of amorphous conflict from 1948 to 1958, a decade known as La Violencia. Starting as rioting in Bogota driven by pre-existing urban-rural, left-right, class and racial divisions violence spread to the countryside as the two main political parties, the Colombian Liberal Party and the Conservative Party, mobilised rural supporters to attack each other's communities. Local governments weaponised police to kill or expel political opponents. Extremists joined in and "conflict entrepreneurs" emerged to prolong and profit from the violence. In the end 200,000 people were killed, two million were displaced and the Colombian Army after initially staying out of the conflict eventually stepped in to end the violence, seizing control in a coup in 1953. External actors, including the Cold War superpowers, also interfered.


Colombia is not the only precedent. Last month marked the 25th anniversary of the Oklahoma City bombing, the deadliest domestic terrorist attack in US history. The bomber, Gulf War veteran Timothy McVeigh, claimed to be enraged by government overreactions at Ruby Ridge (1992) and Waco, Texas (1993), which between them saw law enforcement kill 78 civilians including 26 children. He bombed a building that housed the federal agencies he blamed, along with a childcare centre. His comment after his trial that the 19 children killed, of 168 dead and 680 injured, were "collateral damage" highlighted his military mindset and intent to trigger an anti-government uprising. There was indeed a huge rise in militia activity. But the callousness of McVeigh's attack made most militias condemn him, and by tarnishing the self-perceived righteousness of their anti-government cause undermined the movement he hoped to inspire. He was executed a few months before 9/11.

In retrospect, the risk that Ruby Ridge and Waco would trigger a terrorist backlash seems obvious. Analysts warned this year that extremism poses as much risk today as it did in 1995. Ahead of time, McVeigh's attack was far harder to foresee and its specifics impossible to predict. But far from a fringe issue of neo-Nazi nut cases, the pandemic has made the risk of violence in 2020 far more widespread, larger in scale and more militarily serious than we might imagine. America may well be in a "pre-McVeigh moment.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 31 2020, 10:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

there's a long article in The Australian about modern USA, written by a 'national security' analyst

Home of the hateful, fearful and heavily armed

Coronavirus is threatening to ignite a tinderbox of grievances in the US. The growing parallels with Iraq, Lebanon and Somalia are real and disturbing.

By DAVID KILCULLEN


https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer

- it's hard to disagree with the conclusions, in some ways. Definitely the possibility of social disintegration looms more likely than before. The portraits of the militia, gangs and extremists is as we all thought, or worse, (IMO).
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 30 2020, 03:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

The Case for Gold
QUOTE
...physical gold has zero credit risk, is highly Iiquid, has generated strong long-term returns and has proved to be an effective hedge against a range of unpleasant economic outcomes, of which high inflation is just one.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/gold-...-inflation-myth

plus; Key similarities (4) and differences (7) between the GFC and COVID-19
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: May 30 2020, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Covid-19 has ruffled office sector of property. There was a 40% drop in A-Reits from Feb to late March, though most have clawed the way up a bit.

Are offices a thing of the past and the collegiate way of working now replaced by working from home?

Listed funds with a high exposure to office property include Charter Hall Long Wale, Dexus Property Group, Abacus Property and GPT Group. Australian Unity and Centuria Capital Group are among the managers offering specialist funds.

Listed property conglomerate Mirvac, which is known for its residential expertise, manages more office space than some of the specialist trusts.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 29 2020, 08:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Pent up stress. Barely subsumed social divisions. Toxic politics. Lack of opportunity. Hunger.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 29 2020, 10:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
missed lots of names, geez, i even miss Flower
for a while it was the Lower and Farty show (in my warped way of seeing things)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 29 2020, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

fatigue... now there's a thought. The concept of chatrooms and forums is probably more than 20 years old, and things are moving on.

I'd reckon contributors are getting on a bit, too. We probably fit a certain demographic, and gender. But that's self-selecting, and includes the stayers, those that have found a way to negotiate the market minefields, through highs and lows. Have a bit of time on one's hands is helpful.

I've found the forum useful for storing information. Handy reference points. But then I'm in it for the long term, never felt at ease just trading and prefer the macro overview. Compounding a winner is the way to go. (sell the losers)

I like the collegiate nature of forums. Definitely don't want to go to Twitter or Wordpress or some one-way look at moi site. HC sounds daunting yet infantile and a bit overwhelming. I put stuff up on aussie Stock Forums as well.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 28 2020, 06:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Or black hole
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: May 28 2020, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Last few days have been amazing
QUOTE
JP Morgan financial sector analyst Andrew Triggs says the impressive surge in Australian bank share prices this week is "long overdue", with the sector having underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 by 19 per cent from February 21 to May 25.

After a further rise of between 3.8pc and 6.1pc today, the four majors are currently up almost 20pc this week, so it could be said that its underperformance versus the index has been broadly corrected.

Mr Triggs says reasons for the recent strength include:
... reduced tail risk on the domestic economy;
... positioning is light, with domestic institutional investors net sellers of the banks in the three months to March 31 and heavily underweight financials;
....valuations are "undemanding" with unprecedented discounts to book value; and
... Quant fund rotation (from Growth to Value).

"Whether the recovery continues remains to be seen but 1x price-to-book value may be a "ceiling" in the short-term (ex-CBA) given ongoing uncertainty and structural headwinds the sector faces," Mr Triggs says.

In his view NAB is best positioned to benefit from a "less bad" domestic economy, he has an overweight rating on the stock. Westpac is preferred over ANZ in his major bank pecking order, with CBA the bottom pick at Underweight.

... wow, no-one banging on about 'overweight mums and dads"

....
QUOTE
It's been a long time since the financial media in Australia have used words like stunning, staggering and astonishing in the same sentence as Australian banks.

[Yester]day's Chanticleer column in the Australian Financial Review used all three of these adjectives.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 28 2020, 12:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

here's a Corporate Action we don't see too often:
QUOTE
AXE will raise up to $3,000,000 at an issue price of $0.60 (60 cents) per new Share. The funds raised from the SPP will be used to increase the pace of our current work programs and to start hiring additional staff to do this work.
At Archer, we are proud of our high level of engagement with shareholders and regularly update shareholders through online platforms and in-attendance events. We have also offered shareholders the opportunity to visit our offices and laboratories and will continue to find more ways to make shareholders feel part of the Company. As part of this strategy, we have decided to undertake a SPP rather than a broker sponsored placement as an SPP gives shareholders an opportunity to participate at a price discount normally reserved for sophisticated and professional investors.
In 2017 AXE completed an SPP at a share price of $0.075 (7.5 cents) per share.
Then completed a subsequent SPP in 2019 at a share price of $0.13 (13 cents) per share.

The Archer closing share price on the last trading day prior to this announcement was $0.685 (68.5 cents) per share
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 27 2020, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Talga Resources Ltd is pleased to advise the Company has entered an agreement with Farasis Energy Europe GmbH, a subsidiary of Farasis Energy Inc, one of the world's leading manufacturers of lithium-ion batteries.

Talga is building a European anode production facility for lithium-ion batteries using the Company's proprietary material technologies, wholly owned Swedish carbon source and 100% electricity from renewable energy sources.

As part of the agreement between Talga and Farasis, Talga will supply coated ('active') anode products for evaluation in Farasis batteries and assessment of potential business development opportunities, primarily in Europe.
But, still at evaluation stage.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 27 2020, 01:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

And in Forbes, though the correspondent is familiar and local

https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v...ron-ore-boom%2F
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: May 27 2020, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Twitter tags Trump tweet with fact-checking warning
QUOTE
QUOTE
A post by US President Donald Trump has been given a fact-check label by Twitter for the first time.

President Trump tweeted: "There is NO WAY (ZERO!) that Mail-In Ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent."

Twitter put a warning label under the post and a subsequent tweet under its new policy on misleading information.

Mr Trump responded by tweeting again, saying the social media giant "is completely stifling free speech".

Twitter's notification displays a blue exclamation mark underneath the tweets, suggesting readers "get the facts about mail-in ballots
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52815552
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 27 2020, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Iron ore shipments from Brazil have fallen by almost a quarter in May because of the country's coronavirus crisis, which is one of the worst in the world, said Macquarie analyst Serafino Capoferri. Brazil exported 15.27 million tonnes of iron ore in the first three weeks of May, he said. That is down from 19.4 million tonnes in the comparable period of 2019, when exports were already lower than normal following the fatal dam collapse at Vale's mine in Brumadinho.


"The situation in Brazil is pretty much out of control," said Mr Capoferri. He said the pandemic had caused difficulties at the country's mines, which are more labour-intensive and require people to work closer together than mines in Australia.


Vale has said the coronavirus will reduce the amount of iron it is able to produce this year. The company said in late April it will mine between 345 million and 370 million tonnes of iron ore powder and pellets in 2020, around 40 million tonnes less that it previously expected. Brazil as a whole mined 480 million tonnes of iron ore in 2019, according to the US Geological Survey, a fifth of global production and second only to Australia

Pilbara companies are the biggest beneficiaries
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: May 27 2020, 08:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

What's the old saying; "never waste a crisis".

The CCP playing tough guy when other countries are preoccupied. Shows the true colours.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 26 2020, 04:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Properties and Uses of Boron
Essential Micronutrient ...needed by plants, and used to increase quality and crop yields
Cleaning ... Improves performance of cleaning products
Nuclear Shielding ... Captures neutrons, making it useful in nuclear reactor safety
Spectroscopic ... Absorbs infrared lights, and can be used for energy efficiency purposes
Biostatic ... Limits growth of bacteria and fungi on wood products
Buffering ... Can help to balance acidity and alkalinityGlass FormingMakes glass resistant to heat or chemicals
Anticorrosive ... Can prevent corrosion in many settings
Material Making ... Can be used to make advanced materials such as boron halides or hydrides
Fire Retardant ... Used in materials and coatings to suppress or extinguish flames
Metallurgical ... Can be added to steel and aluminium, or used to make supermagnets
Cross-linking ... Can link alcohols and carbohydrates as part of oil recovery

... There appears to be a huge range of uses, and some are useful. Often cited as used in energy saving appliances, ceramics, electronic devices as well as agricultural enhancement.
American Pacific Borates Limited ABR is an ASX listed company focused on becoming a globally significant specialty fertiliser producer.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 26 2020, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Street Talk understands the Capital Raising would be strucured as an $18 million placement and a $40 million accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer and would be fully underwritten.

The offer would be priced at 29 a share. NOVONIX shares last traded at 66. Morgans was sole lead manager on the deal.

The $86 million NOVONIX supplies materials, equipment and services to the global lithium battery market. It counts ex-Dow Chemical chief executive Andrew Liveris as a board member.

NOVONIX's shares are trading up 112 per cent this month, after the company announced it had filed patent applications for a new method of manufacturing materials used in lithium batteries midway through May


- that's the way to get the money in the door, just after the rapid run-up in price. Hefty discount, though
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 26 2020, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Graphene-enhanced Face Mask


SKU: GrapheneMask0010 $24.95 (pack of 3)


DESCRIPTION
planarTECH & IDEATI's 2AM graphene-enhanced face mask is a patent-pending design that employs a unique coating containing a combination of graphene and other carbon nanomaterials. This coating leverages both the antistatic and known antimicrobial characteristics of graphene to create a unique cotton fabric face mask.

FEATURES:

Anti-Static/Anti-Dust/PM2.5 ... The graphene coating is anti-static, repels dust, and is effective against PM2.5 airborne particulate matter;
Bacteria-resistant Surface ... The graphene coating provides a bacteria-resistant surface, keeping the mask clean and fresh;
Washable 10x ... Cotton fabric is washable and reusable up to 10 times without color fading or loss of the graphene coatings properties;
Thermal Distribution & Water-repellent Inner Layer ... The graphene coating spreads heat evenly across the mask; the inner cotton lining includes a water-repellent coating for additional comfort
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 25 2020, 12:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
FGR has gone into a trading halt
and the announcement states this "Trading Halt has been requested by the Company in anticipation of an update on its arrangements with planarTECH"

So what is this planarTECH?
QUOTE
planarTECH is a global leader in providing process and analytical equipment for graphene and 2D materials synthesis, as well as the integration of graphene into everyday products, such as our collaboration with Thailand-based IDEATE on a graphene-enhanced face mask.

Having gained extensive insight into a variety of graphene applications, planarTECH is now poised to enter a new phase of growth. To be part of this, learn more about our crowdfunding campaign at planartech.seedrs.com.
Website is touting the "graphene-enhanced face mask". Relevant and of the moment, yes. But.

There's an office in an industrial estate in Texas, and a street address in Cambridge UK (associated with the Graphene Centre), links to Korea, Singapore, our Deakin Uni.... but I can't help but get the feeling it's small time.

Crowd-funding !!!
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 25 2020, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Last year the Chinese Premier said this in his 2019 NPC speech:

QUOTE
We will uphold the one-China principle and the 1992 consensus, promote the peaceful growth of relations across the Taiwan Strait, and advance Chinas peaceful reunification




This week he said:

QUOTE
We will adhere to the major principles and policies on work related to Taiwan and resolutely oppose and deter any separatist activities seeking Taiwan independence and we will encourage them to join us in opposing Taiwan independence and promoting Chinas reunification.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 25 2020, 10:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
"On Thursday, the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, and Xinhua, the state-run news agency, ran commentaries calling for the "tumor" of pro-independence sentiment in Hong Kong to be excised.

Neither specified how this might be done."


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/world/as...kong-china.html


Chinese press also referred to Australians as dogs.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 24 2020, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Tim Boreham banging the drum on LGP
QUOTE
By Tim Boreham | More Articles by Tim Boreham
With dozens of medicinal cannabis plays now listed on the ASX and with many pretenders along for the ride, the serious exponents need to offer investors more than opaque promises about exploiting the healing herb.

This is ever more the case given the so-called 'green gold' is at risk of becoming a commoditised market especially in jurisdictions such as the US where recreational pot is widely legalised.

So how do the genuine players stand out above the canopy of chancers?

Little Green Pharma (ASX:LGP) has some genuine pioneering notches on its belt. The Perth-based outfit was the first to produce a home-grown medicinal cannabis product for patient use (in August 2018) and it was also the first to export when it became legal to do so.

"Even today we are the only local producer among the 130 products available," says LGP founder and CEO Fleta Solomon. "There are lots of licences issued and a lot of people growing, but no-one has actually produced the finished medicines."

LGP is also generating meaningful revenue: a unicorn-type rarity in the sector. LGP can also claim another quirky milestone: it was the last stock to list in the pre COVID-19 bull market, with its February 20 ASX debut sneaking in ahead of the record peak the next day.

"People have expressed sympathy that we listed when we did," says Solomon. "But I say it was amazing because if we didn't list then we may never have listed. "We were so fortunate we got the window we did."

Solomon founded LGP in 2016, tapping her entrepreneurial skills honed from building up (and then selling) a workplace health outfit. Along the way LGP acquired precision drug dosing technology from an elderly inventor who was keen to retire.

Under its vertically-integrated model, LGP grows the cannabis hydroponically at its secret licensed facility in WA's south west. The plant material is processed at a third party facility, albeit with help from LGP staff using their equipment.

Currently, the company produces four variants of bottled oils containing various ratios of CBD (cannabidiol) and THC (tetrahydrocannabinol).

CBD is one of approximately 140 cannabinoids which has renowned therapeutic properties dating back thousands of years. THC is the famed intoxicating cannabis component, but also the requisite component to treat conditions such as pain and anxiety.

LGP's operations have all the requisite licences and its manufacturing partner is GMP (Good Manufacturing Practice) certified which enables the company to export to countries within the European Union. Only a handful of other providers are able to do so.

This month, the company received a manufacturing permit from the federal Office of Drug Control (ODC) which allows the company to perform extraction at its own processing facility onsite.

The $10 million raised in LGP's IPO will fund this facility and the company is currently waiting for its expanded ODC cultivation and production permit for its expanded growing facility which will produce enough material for 110,000 bottles a year (compared with 15,000 currently).

In the first six months to 31 December 2019, LGP recorded revenue of $716,000, up 188 per cent on the 12 months to 30 June 2019. The March quarterly statement the first financial results post listing showed receipts of $630,000 and operating cash outflows of $2.23 million.

The number of patients treated with LGP's therapies swelled to 3,175 growth of 1,119 new patients during the quarter.
In the month of March the company sold a record 1,580 of the 50 millilitre bottles, taking the accrued bottles sold to more than 10,450.

The backdrop to the Little Green Pharma story is the gradual acceptance of medicinal cannabis, which is legal in Australia but heavily regulated. Currently, the Therapeutic Goods Administration has approved only one cannabis therapy (Sativex, for multiple sclerosis spasticity). Otherwise, patients need to access the medicine via the regulator's Special Access Scheme, or via a network of authorised prescribers.

While it's up to the doctors to determine the best treatment, "approved indications" include anxiety, cancer-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), epilepsy, insomnia, and wasting.

Solomon says LGP's current products are similar to those that have been around for thousands of years. "We deliberately made it so, because the extensive real-world evidence that exists about how these oils are used makes it easier for doctors to prescribe." She says while the current products are important for building revenue, "down the track the differentiator for us is how the medicines are delivered."

In an exclusive partnership with Curtin University the company is working on ARISE, "a precision dosing methodology that could potentially make cannabis ingredients more bioavailable for the human body."

In the meantime, offshore markets beckon for LGP, via distribution agreements with Germany's CC Pharma and DEMECAN and Astral Health in Britain.

The company recently dispatched Australia's first medicinal cannabis export winning the praise of federal health minister Greg Hunt who is advocating Australian medicinal cannabis as a new export sector. This shipment was sent to Astral Health under a five-year contract which involves supplying product to the fast emerging UK medicinal cannabis market, which adheres to a similar regulatory framework as Australia's. Germany is especially appealing because while cannabis cultivation has only recently been legalised there, it's one of the world's biggest medicinal cannabis markets and prescriptions are generally rebated by health insurance companies.

Despite LGP's progress, the stock remains below the 45c a share IPO price but Solomon says the company's performance should take care of the valuation. "The market has taken a hit but we don't focus on that," she says. "We just know what we are doing and we know we have some really great news coming out."

The company has no debt, $6 million in cash and increasing sales month on month which provides a strong business case.

Solomon says it's rare to come across a business that presents both a commercial opportunity and the ability to make a
social impact. "By that I mean changing the life of patients," she says. "That's the reason the team at LGP gets out of bed every day."
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 24 2020, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Boron/ Borate is one commodity that the Chinese don't dominate.
80% of the market is derived from 2 countries (Turkey and USA)

BORATES Duopoly market with very few global sources of borates
.. The global boric acid equivalent market is around 4.5m tonnes per annum. Around 20% of this market is for fertiliser application with boron being the second most consumed micro nutrient in North America by value.
.. Turkish Government owned Eti Maden controls the marginal unit of supply and will continue to meet demand.
.. Eti Maden appears to be the only borate producer with meaningful additional capacity capable of meeting additional supply requirements.
..Rio Tinto Borates (majority of US production; approx 20% of global prod) appears to be operating at full capacity with flat supply for over eight years.


Of the ASX listed hopefuls
ORE has borate as a sideshow to lithium
ABR has been getting a move on. Production is targeted for CY21 with construction activities commenced. Shareprice recently ran upINR Ioneer is getting its Nevada project up to speed, but needs a truckload of money to bring it to reality
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 22 2020, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

FGR has gone into a trading halt in the middle of the 1;:10 rights issue . It would have to be "material" though the announcement doesn't say anything


(Currently little upside in it as the trades have all been around issue price 13c, though the oppies FGROC are carrying a cent or 2 ... though that may disappear when new ones issued)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 22 2020, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Over 70 now


In the vulnerable category, for Covid, so getting away from the madding crowd makes sense. Only issue with looking for a bolthole is the services ... healthcare and specialists loom front of mind.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 21 2020, 07:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Archer Materials Limited (AXE, formerly Archer Exploration Limited) has focus on the development of the Group's advanced materials with a key focus on integrating graphite and graphene in three key growth areas of reliable energy, human health and quantum technology and exploring our mineral exploration projects.
QUOTE
In early May, the stock doubled when it became the first Australian business to be admitted into IBM's Q network, the group of global organisations that are collaborating to develop quantum computing: outfits like Daimler, ExxonMobil, JPMorgan, Samsung and Accenture.

Archer has a board of three, a staff of eight, $2.2m in the bank and costs $150,000 a month to run. Nevertheless, CEO Mohammad Choucair and technology chief Martin Fuechsle appear to be leading in the global race to build a room-temperature quantum computing chip, based on a 2016 idea by Choucair, which is why this tiny Australian firm with almost no money was invited to join the giants in the IBM Q Network....
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 21 2020, 06:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

they're graphite



AXE is the gun
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 21 2020, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

and SVY having a bit of a rebound today, as well. Copper gets the runs, Gold is just a bit on the side?

Investor Presentation out today has cheered up the punters; back above 60c after languishing fo a few months
QUOTE
✓ First-mover position in a potential new world-class copper province
✓ Recent discovery of structurally-controlled high-grade lode-style copper-gold-silver mineralisation similar to the Magma (Arizona) and Butte (Montana) deposits
✓ Intercepts across three structures ranging from 62m to almost 1,000m drill depth "tall' system
✓ Shallow resource drill-out underway targeting ~20% of one of the three potentially mineralised structures identified to date
✓ Outstanding potential for additional discoveries from regional targets
✓ Likely to be driven by a late-stage porphyry that is yet to be identified it's still out there.


and NML getting a bit of nearology 'mentioned in dispatches'?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 21 2020, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

DRO is back ... big lift today (some 60% lift but only to 17c) after ts DroneGun TacticalTM product was selected as the preferred solution by the European Union police forces.

QUOTE
The process was run by Belgium Police, with an EU-wide framework. Sales, training and local support will be managed by DroneShields Benelux region partner ForcePro BV
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 21 2020, 06:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Peter Schiff had a similar argument recently in Kitco

https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco...ow%3DKitco-NEWS
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 20 2020, 06:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

we wouldn't be a Commonwealth if it wasn't for Federation,

and that involved so much pre-1901 compromise, just to get it across the line. Just think about the Island continent if it was a bunch of pissy little states. Some would be speaking Japanese now.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 20 2020, 02:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

gee whillikers, who'd have thought this would be the case?
QUOTE
Shoppers who spent March panic buying tinned food, toilet paper and pasta shut their wallets in April, sending retail sales plunging last month.

Key points:
  • - Preliminary figures show a 17.9 per cent plunge in retail turnover in April
  • - Sales of non-perishable groceries dropped by nearly a quarter, as coronavirus stockpiling subsided
  • - Transaction data shows an improvement in May, but Diana Mousina from AMP Capital says the recovery remains shallow for now
Preliminary figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show a 17.9 per cent drop in retail turnover .... the steepest monthly fall on record.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-20/reta...allets/12266788
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 20 2020, 02:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

a pretty optimistic update from Clover today - and up to $2.50
QUOTE
Following the first half results, Clover Corporation has experienced strong demand from customers globally, with an increase in forecast demand coming in the fourth quarter from infant formula manufacturers, which the company believes is primarily driven by the market’s reaction to COVID-19. It is believed consumers are buying additional products which has depleted the pipeline fill into distribution warehouses and retail outlets. This is likely to have been exacerbated by company and country isolation activities.
also getting a one-off benefit from currency movements.
QUOTE
Clover believes that much of the increased demand reflects China re-filling a depleted pipeline post the COVID-19 impact, as well as other countries experiencing higher demand as end consumers stockpile product during isolation. It is too early to state the full impact of the above market movements as the current forecast-to-order placement is very fluid. The situation driven by COVID19, the depreciation of the Australian dollar and high existing Clover inventories are mostly one-off events, and we expect demand patterns will return to a more normalized pattern in the next financial year.
Previously, the company had indicated that performance in the second half of FY20 would be similar to the results in the second half of FY19 (which is seasonally stronger than the first half). The Board now expects a stronger second half FY20 performance, assuming forecast demand results in fulfilled orders and the global situation remains in the current state.
The Board added that it will consider reinstating company dividends at the end of the financial year in line with results.

  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 20 2020, 11:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

maaate

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 20 2020, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Elders is making a bit of a comeback
QUOTE
Elders chief executive Mark Allison says it will be on the hunt for distressed assets to acquire as the economic fallout from COVID-19 causes some players in the industry to stumble.

The benefits of a disciplined rebuild of the company over the past six years under Mr Allison, along with drought-busting rains which fuelled higher demand from farmers for fertilisers and chemicals, delivered a robust rise in first-half profits which pushed Elders shares to a 10-year high.

"We're actively assessing distressed assets and we're actively assessing the economic fallout and the opportunities that will bring,'' Mr Allison said.

He said Elders was in a strong position even though there was uncertainty in some parts of the business, with rural property sales expected to be softer because of the impact of COVID-19, and wool prices weakening further as demand from fashion houses in Europe and N America drops.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 19 2020, 06:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Cows seemed to like it , but it was s a bit finicky for my liking. ...
Yeah, I guess if it was easy, we'd be doing it already
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 19 2020, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I have the solution; why doesn't Forrest buy it?
QUOTE
WA is the state hardest hit by China’s decision to impose a tariff on Australia malting barley, with almost 90 per cent of the barley exported to China grown in the state.

Ms MacTiernan said tensions between Australia and China over the proposed inquiry into the origins of coronavirus had influenced the outcome.

”While we have every confidence that Australian barley is neither being dumped nor subsidised, this final outcome is not surprising, given the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s conditional ruling less than two weeks ago,” she said.

“It would appear Western Australian barley growers have been caught up in a much larger issue.”

The 80 per cent tariff is expected to all but end the shipment of Australian malting barley to China. Farmers are expected to instead sell the product as lower-value feed for cattle and plant other crops instead.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 19 2020, 02:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

topped up my CXL holding today.
-------
In waste water treatment, the pathway has been established; Magnesium Hydroxide facilities are likely to be positioned closer to demand. At present, there are 7 established (2 AUS, 1 SE Asia, 4 US). Two more are planned for US and 1 planned for market entry EU

I'm hoping the US acquisition bears fruit, and it seems like it should. Successful completion of US acquisition is set to deliver 5-fold sales revenue uplift
.• First US plant upgrade completed and more stable product achieved
• Second US plant upgrade underway
• First new US plant under construction for market expansion

With the other equal highest priority, LEILAC, Calix’s technology is being piloted with the world’s largest cement and lime companies to mitigate their carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions dramatically without significant energy or capital penalty. A year or so to see the results from the pilot plant. ----

-
CXL only sold off a bit during the March meltdown. There seems to be steady buying, a few bots nibbling away, and Buy/ Sell ratio is favourable
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 19 2020, 01:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Harris Technology Group Limited (HT8) is involved in technology distribution and online retailing. The Company is engaged in online e-commerce destination in Australia.

Between its own e-commerce site and its presence on Amazon Australia, Catch, Kogan and eBay, Harris generated $1.6 million in sales in March 2020, compared to $716,000 in March 2019. Higher demand has been driven by the establishment of home offices and home schooling by consumers as a result of the current government requirements (Covid lockdown).

QUOTE
“Total revenue for the March 2020 quarter is $3.4 million compared to the March 2019 quarter of $2.3 million,” said Harris CEO Garrison Huang. "Management attributes the increase in sales to strategically leveraging off the marketing and distribution power of the major e-commerce platforms such as Amazon Australia, [and] higher demand driven by the establishment of home offices and home schooling by consumers as a result of the current government requirements.”

As well, by April, the group established its Pro-Hygiene range of products including facemasks, hand sanitiser gels and alcohol wipes. The company sold an initial 30,000 face masks in March, and a new shipment of 200,000 TGA approved face masks were imported for sale in late April.

Sales of Pro-Hygiene products alone for April 2020 were $1.05 million (unaudited) with strong gross margins of 20%. ..in just one month Pro-Hygiene sales have exceeded the June quarter guidance by 150%.

Harris has expanded its product range by securing the non-exclusive Australian distribution rights for the “Tender Kiss” brand of alcohol tissues from Guangzhou Baihua Sanitary Products Co. The tissues are being imported from China and sales of the brand will commence this month.

Harris is confident that supplies of products in China should continue, and the distribution rights are ongoing with no specific termination date. A national network of sales agents to sell Pro-Hygiene products has been established, and one agent has been appointed for each state of Australia.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 19 2020, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I wonder if this is a winner? Could well be.
QUOTE
Lupin is devoid of starch, which is very unusual for a species of edible bean.
Lupins have a thick seed coat (25%) which consists mainly of cellulose (insoluble fibre-bran) and its removal is the first step in lupin processing.
The kernel (split) of lupin is rich in protein (40%), dietary fibre (37%) and moderate in fat (7%) made up largely of unsaturated fatty acids.

Intensive plant breeding programs have ensured that modern lupin varieties have relatively low levels of the alkaloids found in their ancestral genotypes.

Lupins also contain moderate amounts of carotenoids; beta carotene, lutein, zeaxanthin and tocopherols (Vitamin E)
soy as a protein has it's limitations (if the average canine is a guide, flatulence is a major problem)

and .... 60% of global production occurs in Western Australia !
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 19 2020, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

This company has made a leap in the last few days, more than doubling in price, as it moves into Plant-based Protein Agriculture
WA based, it listed in 2018 and started out as
QUOTE
.. a food and agricultural company seeking to regenerate ecosystems and communities in the Western Australian Wheatbelt by operating a vertically integrated, consumer driven business to maximise long-term, sustainable financial returns.

In implementing this strategy WOA intends to apply a "4 returns" framework on seeking measurable outcomes on each of financial returns, natural returns, social returns and inspirational returns.

The Company currently has and is developing three business streams being:
(a) protected cropping and associated open field operations to grow premium vegetables;
(b) a "Food for Reasons"â„¢ food brand to market and distribute food produce; and
© a regenerative farmland management business.


Since IPO at 20c it bounced along,, struggling to get runs on the table. By June 2019, initial domestic sales of regenerative, grass fed beef and lamb were turning over about $9000/week. It then launched an online presence.
Also, it was involved in trials for industrial hemp, gaining a licence and developing a pilot shade-house


And now, sudden surge, from 15c to now 32c in two days

WIDE OPEN AGRICULTURE SIGNS OPTION FOR EXCLUSIVE GLOBAL LICENCE TO PLANT-BASED PROTEIN TECHNOLOGY

QUOTE
HIGHLIGHTS

• WOA signs option to a exclusive global licence to create a novel plant-based protein for human consumption

• Plant-based protein derived from lupin. Licence signed with Curtin University which has proven experience in legume innovation and commercialisation

• Plant-based protein market is growing at 14% p.a. and forecast to reach USD$40.6 billion by 2025

• Plant-based proteins are the key ingredient of Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods and other plant-based alternative meat, dairy and egg products

• Provides WOA with first mover advantage to launch a lupin-based protein for human consumption into a high growth sector

• Lupin is a super high protein, regenerative legume. 60% of global production occurs in Western Australia

• Completes WOA’s trilogy of regenerative products including livestock, oats and lupins

  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 17 2020, 09:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

it's worse than that. As I understand it, the salaries of most UN (and presumably other IntOrg) employees are included in a country's aid budget. Bugger all gets to recipient nations ....
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 17 2020, 02:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I think everything the 'contemptible' trump does is to get re-elected. Poor man, boxed himself in a corner.

Meantime, strong words from The Lancet concerning the lack of leadership
Lancet editorial blasts Trump's 'inconsistent and incoherent' coronavirus response
QUOTE
One of the world's oldest and best-known medical journals has criticised US President Donald Trump's "inconsistent and incoherent national response" to the novel coronavirus pandemic and accused the administration of relegating the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention to a "nominal" role.

The unsigned editorial from The Lancet concluded that Trump should be replaced. "Americans must put a president in the White House come January, 2021, who will understand that public health should not be guided by partisan politics," said the journal, which was founded in Britain in 1823.

The Lancet published the editorial as the death toll in the United States surpassed 85,000 and many states moved to reopen businesses and ease coronavirus restrictions that experts say are necessary to contain the virus....

QUOTE
The authors accused the administration of undermining some of the CDC's top officials, saying the agency "has seen its role minimised and become an ineffective and nominal adviser."
They noted that the agency, which is supposed to be the primary contact for health authorities during crises, has been hamstrung by years of budget cuts. The editorial said the administration left an "intelligence vacuum" in China when it pulled the last CDC officer from the country in July 2019.

The Lancet also took the CDC to task for its botched rollout of diagnostic testing in the critical early weeks that the virus began to spread in the United States. The country remains ill-equipped to provide basic surveillance or laboratory testing to combat the disease, the journal said.

"There is no doubt that the CDC has made mistakes, especially on testing in the early stages of the pandemic," the editorial said. "But punishing the agency by marginalising and hobbling it is not the solution. "The Administration is obsessed with magic bullets - vaccines, new medicines, or a hope that the virus will simply disappear," it continued. "But only a steadfast reliance on basic public health principles, like test, trace, and isolate, will see the emergency brought to an end, and this requires an effective national public health agency."...

originally in The Washington Post
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/lancet-...516-p54tj4.html
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 16 2020, 04:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Iron Ore Rises As Coronavirus Spread Threatens Brazilian Supplies
QUOTE
Global iron ore prices leapt a surprisingly strong 5% on Friday as doubts re-emerged about the security of Brazilian iron ore supplies in the wake of the continuing spread of COVID-19 across that country. The Metal Bulletin price for 62% Fe fines delivered to northern China jumped $US4.25 a tonne on Friday to end the week at $US88.60. That pushed the price of iron ore up by more than 5.4% for the week.

Traders reported that the rapid spread of the virus to the northern iron ore producing Para state of Brazil triggered concerns late last week. There have been no reports as yet of infections near the iron ore mining areas and port, but concerns are rising.

The Brazilian national and Para state governments have decreed mining, processing, commercialisation, and shipping essential operations, so they will continue if there is a lockdown.

QUOTE
Chinese trade data for April revealed a jump in shipments for last month. Customs data showed that 97.27 million tonnes were imported last month, up from 85.91 million tonnes in March and 80.77 million tonnes a year earlier, when shipments from Brazil’s top miner Vale were disrupted after a tailings dam disaster on January 25.
In fact imports in April of 2019 hit an 18 month low because of the shortfall from Brazil. In the first four months of 2020, China imported 360 million tonnes of iron ore, up 5.8% from 340.21 million tonnes in the same period last year, according to customs.


https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/05/11/iro...ilian-supplies/
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: May 15 2020, 02:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Avi Schiffmann has been procrastinating on his school work, but he has a good excuse. The 17-year-old high schooler is the creator of one of the most visited coronavirus trackers in the world, ncov2019.live, which he says now takes up “100 per cent” of his free time.

The coronavirus pandemic doesn’t look like it will be over any time soon, and Schiffmann plans to continue actively tracking it until the end. As long as the site is up, he says he will keep working at it and adding new features. Once the pandemic is safely over, he’ll take the servers down, and maybe make a page that compares COVID-19 with SARS or the Spanish flu. He thinks it might be a historical piece of the coronavirus people can look back on.

Avi Schiffmann’s coronavirus tracker is a one-stop shop for all the information about COVID-19 the average person might want to know. It constantly updates with statistics for countries around the world on infections, deaths, recoveries, and rates of change using data scraped from the WHO, CDC, and other government websites. The site often offers new features, like the new survival rate calculator. It also has infections broken down on a map, and pages with some basic information about the virus, including tips for hand hygiene and a list of symptoms.

Although Schiffmann is proud of the work he’s done, he doesn’t want to become a model for how to make a name for one’s self during a pandemic. “In the future, I hope pressure is on the WHO” to make a tool like this, he said, “The responsibility shouldn’t be on some random kid, but it’s obvious that people want to know the statistics.”
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 15 2020, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

been a long time between drinks. NVX saw a big jump in price today; up some 40% but that's off 4 year lows and only clawing back the market's Covid selldown that punished the small caps, especially those cash starved.

The news is that its research partners at Dalhousie University in Canada have developed a breakthrough method that can be applied to the manufacturing of both anode and cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries called dry particle microgranulation (DPMG).

From the announcement:
QUOTE
DPMG provides a method for synthesizing highly engineered particles through the consolidation of fine materials, that may otherwise be waste, into particles that can be tens of microns and suitable for use in lithium-ion batteries. The recent publication outlines methods of making spherical graphite for use in lithium-ion batteries with 100% yield where current methods have significant yield losses which increase the cost of manufacturing.

Patent applications protecting the DPMG process have been filed by NOVONIX under the commercialization arrangements with Prof. Obrovac and Dalhousie University.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 15 2020, 02:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

you beat me to it, Mick wink.gif

But urban amenity will always have a pull factor. We all know how long it can take to find a buyer for regional properties.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 15 2020, 02:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Not taking it all as gospel, there's some elements of truth in this story.

Australians seek regional affordability, as research shows 30 per cent price plunge possible with coronavirus second wavehttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/aust...avirus/12242252
QUOTE
Key points:
  • - The option of living further away from big cities has become more appealing for some Australians after the pandemic
  • - The city exodus has yet to play out and comes as CBD rents dive and national house prices are expected to take a big hit
  • - Whatever happens to the housing market, COVID-19 has shifted the way people think about where they live and work

It's going to take a while for the implications to flow through

CBDs; what purpose?
- hub and spoke mass transit, with rush hours?
- NSW is basically saying; don't take pubic transport for now
- bikes offer freedom; cars could choke the
- expensive office space with high allocation per person? Hot desking, gone!

Home life
- More sprawl, but perhaps a bit more community in each cluster? Or even cluster in each community!
- Broadband and 5G gotta get efficient.
- And for those not able to benefit from
- and what about age-care homes/facilities? Independent living?

Distribution channels
- The 'gig economy .... e-bikes and scooters. Another subset of day labour, except its crumbs off the table, job lots (not lots of jobs)
- More packaging
- The mall. A curious 20th C model (I hope)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 15 2020, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Delusional, most of them
QUOTE
Residential Property

“Do I think real estate will plunge? No chance. While interest rates are low the sector will remain sound. I have no doubt the market will come off…but with interest rates so low it’s just as affordable to pay off a mortgage as to pay rent”
James Symond, CEO, Aussie Home Loans

“We saw a trough in residential inquiry in late March and since then we have seen a very substantial increase back to pre-crisis levels”
Mark Steinert, CEO, Stockland Ltd

“In an environment where most people have been working from home, we have seen an increase in buyer activity for layouts that offer extra study/office space”
Harry Triguboff, CEO, Meriton Group

Ton of trouble
QUOTE
Retail

“When experts write about the demise of old world retail, they will mean, the retail behemoths that had come to rely on the physics; how fast, how big and often how cheap, but did not develop their magic chemistry. They were already out of touch before. It’s not taken a global pandemic to reach this realisation, they were in the retailer emergency ward and were terminally ill, COVID-19 has simply accelerated the inevitable”
Shaun Bonett, CEO, Precision Group [AU/NZ commercial property management group]



And this sector is in for a big shakeout
QUOTE
Workplace

“There will be a long-term adjustment in how we think about our location strategy...the notion of putting 7,000 people in a building may be a thing of the past”
Jes Staley, CEO, Barclays plc

“I think it would be fair to say demand for physical office space will reduce”
John McMurtrie, CEO, Link Group

“What we've learned through this experience is in fact that there is a different way of working open to us now. We’re not going to move 46,000 people back to work. We’re going to move some back and have some work from home”
Chris Ashton, CEO, Worley Parsons

So glad my only investment in property is my own home, and that I consider a lifestyle option, equity share that allows for lumpy equivalent relocation, but not an investment
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 14 2020, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Can the Chinese mess with this market?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 13 2020, 11:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Here on SS, there is actually a NZ thread, for NZX companies; that's where I found it. (FORUMS, then to right NZX not ASX on left). It's not a well curated list.


And yes, I hesitated to post for fear the deluded one would claim ownership.
  Forum: NZX

nipper
Posted on: May 13 2020, 08:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Came across this, Covid-19 is affecting food production, especially in USA

QUOTE
Only a handful of companies manufacture meat-processing robots. This list includes:

- KUKA (KUKAY), a German company owned by a Chinese parent company
Yaskawa Electric Co. (YASKY), based in Japan
- ABB Automation Co., part of Switzerland-based ABB Group (ABB)
- FANUC Corp. (FANUY), a Japan-based robotics company

The largest protein-processing company in the world is Brazil-based JBS S.A. (JBSAY). It produces factory processed beef, pork, and lamb. Its US operations are overseen by JBS USA Holdings Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary. JBS is a vertically integrated meat producer, which means it handles the entire process from farm to freezer.

In 2015, JBS completed a deal where it purchased a 50.1% controlling interest in Scott Technology. The investment brings the technology in house. And this will enable JBS to expand the use of automated meat processing across its 150 plants worldwide. JBS said it will provide the capital needed for Scott to scale up its production.

JBS has sufficient idle capacity at its Brazilian and Australian plants to export meat to the US to close any shortage gaps. JBS looks set to raise its sales to meet global protein demand. Its acquisition of Scott will accelerate the use of meat-processing robots, and that will lower costs and raise efficiency, which should boost profits
  Forum: NZX

nipper
Posted on: May 12 2020, 09:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

and herein lies the conundrum (there are other crypto's)
QUOTE
Bitcoin has just gone through a much-hyped adjustment that reduced the rate at which new coins are created. The world's biggest cryptocurrency's so-called "halving" happens roughly every four years.The digital currency relies on what are known as "miners", who run software that races to solve complex maths puzzles in return for Bitcoins.

Monday's halving event means that the reward for unlocking a "block" has been cut from 12.5 new coins to 6.25.

Halving was written into the cryptocurrency's code by its creator, who is known as Satoshi Nakamoto, to control inflation.

This is the third halving since Bitcoin's creation in 2009. The first took place in November, 2012, and the second in July 2016. The next halving is due to take place in May 2024.

Bitcoin's code also means that rewards to miners will continue to halve every 210,000 blocks until they reach zero in around two decades' time, limiting the total number of Bitcoins that will ever exist to 21 million. This is because - unlike currencies such as the dollar, pound or euro - digital currencies have no central banks to regulate their supply.

Supporters of the cryptocurrency say that this scarcity is part of what underpins its value and makes it a potential safe haven against currencies that are vulnerable to devaluation during times of economic crisis.

The digital currency has gained more than 20% since the start of this year, touching $10,000 last week. That came after a report that hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has backed the cryptocurrency as a safeguard against inflation. However some investors have highlighted that halving could make the cryptocurrency less attractive to miners. "The incentive is less for miners now to mine Bitcoin. Miners will probably switch to more profitable cryptocurrencies," Stephen Innes from AXI Corp told the BBC.



- and what about inflation? What does that mean?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 12 2020, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Not a problem
I posted another good read, from Paul Tudor Jones, as well; I quite like it in terms of 'safe havens". Of course that is based on the Coming Inflation, though there are many that may not agree is a given (hasn't emerged in last 10-12 years)

https://www.docdroid.net/H1fuimX/the-great-...y-inflation-pdf
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 12 2020, 08:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Get ready
QUOTE
Futures traders are pricing in the possibility of negative US interest rates within months.

Contracts on the fed funds rate extended this week's rally as price levels shot through the 100 level across futures referencing the first quarter of 2021, indicating negative yields attached to benchmark US rates.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has consistently pushed back against the idea of taking interest rates negative
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 11 2020, 03:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
What does the U.S. see today?



  • - one of the greatest pandemics to reach us since the Spanish Flu of 102 years ago,
  • - the greatest economic contraction since the Great Depression, which ended 80 years ago,
  • - the greatest oil-price decline in the OPEC era (and, probably, ever), and
  • - the greatest central bank/government intervention of all time.


The future for all these things is clearly unknowable. We have no reason to think we know how they’ll operate in the period ahead, how they’ll interact with each other, and what the consequences will be for everything else.

In short, it’s my view that if you’re experiencing something that has never been seen before, you simply can’t say you know how it’ll turn out.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 11 2020, 11:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Paul Tudor Jones has come out with a worry list about THE GREAT MONETARY INFLATION

QUOTE
COVID-19 is a one-of-a-kind virus that has triggered a one-of-a-kind policy response globally. The depth and magnitude of the economic drop-off took modern monetary theory, or the direct monetization of massive fiscal spending, from the theoretical to practice without any debate.

A. Debt Addiction
B. Money Printing is a Hard Habit to Kick
C. Seeking Refuge from the Great Monetary Inflation

There is a host of assets that at one time or another have worked well in reflationary periods:
1. Gold ... A 2,500 year store of value
2. The Yield Curve ... Historically a great defense against stagflation or a central bank intent on inflating. For our purposes we use long 2-year notes and short 30-year bonds
3. NASDAQ100 ... The events of the last decade have shown that quantitative easing can rapidly leak into equity markets
4. Bitcoin ... There is a lengthy discussion of this below
5. US cyclicals (long)/US defensive (short) ... A pure goods’ inflation play historically
6. AUD-JPY ... Long commodity exporter and short commodity importer
7. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) ... Indexed to CPI to protect against inflation
8. GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) ... A basket of 24 commodities that reflects underlying global economic growth
9. JPM Emerging Market Currency Index ... Historically when global growth is high and inflationary pressures are building, emerging market currencies have done quite well.

https://www.docdroid.net/H1fuimX/the-great-...y-inflation-pdf

In seeking refuge, he grades these "Stores of Value" with 4 characteristics
1. Purchasing Power
2. Trustworthiness
3. Liquidity
4. Portability

and Bitcoin does surprisingly well. Of course, assuming THE GREAT MONETARY INFLATION
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 10 2020, 05:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
US intelligence agencies are reportedly examining mobile phone data suggesting there could have been an emergency shutdown in October at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
According to a report, obtained by NBC News, there was no mobile phone activity in a high-security part of the Chinese laboratory complex from October 7 to 24. Previously, there had been consistent use of mobile phones.
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/nort...510-p54rid.html
now, this isn't a smoking gun, and etc.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 10 2020, 01:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Can of worms, Mick

there's a RF2 report from France suspecting the first Covid-19 case in France on 16 Nov. (looking at 2500 thoracic scans from the time)
https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/sante-scien...sace-1588830642
and that the virus's development in eastern France was slow at first.

How this sits with the adamant position taken by the Chinese that it emerged in Hubei at a certain time; will they try to say its not of Wuhan origin?

And of course there's a difference between exhibiting symptoms and being diagnosed after tests. Both the uncertainty and the dates attributed.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 10 2020, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Ha. Good one
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 9 2020, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

There is ongoing debate about whether Australia's recession will look like a V, W, L or U. But its profile is clearly not going to fit any simple alphabet shape.

Those sectors of the economy which had to close down were very substantial and we knew the initial hit would be huge. But the Reserve Bank was quick off the mark in responding to the crisis, with its policy initiatives in mid-March.

No matter how effective the stimulus, the productive potential of the economy has been reduced, debt burdens will be higher, some businesses will not revive and precautionary behaviour will persist.

As restrictions are relaxed, there could be a reasonably rapid return towards normality. But the opening-up process was always going to be tentative and experimental.

We already had a good reading of the Reserve Bank’s thinking from governor Philip Lowe’s speech on April 21: output down 10 per cent in the first half of this year, with recovery starting in the September quarter. Unemployment would register 10 per cent, with many more hidden by the JobKeeper wage subsidy.

Friday's Statement on Monetary Policy provided alternative scenarios that were evenly balanced between optimism and pessimism. Even the optimistic scenario has normality "a couple of years away".

It’s not surprising, then, that the RBA hasn’t seen the need to tweak the March policy package much.

Conventional policy, the short-term interest rate, was set at effective-zero in March. Forward guidance assured financial markets that this would stay for the duration. Nothing more to do here.

The March package had two more objectives. First, to encourage the banking sector to play a shock-absorber role by funding the cash-flow consequences of business hibernation and recession. Second, to ensure that the government could fund the huge deficit in prospect.

Stephen Grenville is a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia and a non-resident fellow of the Lowy Institute
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 9 2020, 01:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

the direction taken by AXE has morphed; it changed name to reflect new realities in November 2019.
QUOTE
Archer Materials Limited (AXE, formerly Archer Exploration Limited) has focus on the development of the Group's advanced materials with a key focus on integrating graphite and graphene in three key growth areas of reliable energy, human health and quantum technology and exploring our mineral exploration projects.

- and may well change again. (here's hoping the 'graphene' bit rubs off to other stocks)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 9 2020, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Mr Kohler has a piece in the Weekend Oz about the company.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/a...726c05ce561da7a

QUOTE
..on Tuesday the stock doubled when it became the first Australian business to be admitted into IBM’s Q network, the group of global organisations that are collaborating to develop quantum computing: outfits like Daimler, ExxonMobil, JPMorgan, Samsung and Accenture.

Archer has a board of three, a staff of eight, $2.2m in the bank and costs $150,000 a month to run. Nevertheless, CEO Mohammad Choucair and technology chief Martin Fuechsle appear to be leading in the global race to build a room-temperature quantum computing chip, based on a 2016 idea by Choucair, which is why this tiny Australian firm with almost no money was invited to join the giants in the IBM Q Network....


Not sure what to make of it.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 8 2020, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

It's hard to get a resource up to measure. Lots of exploration needed, and that takes time and money.
SVY has been in retreat since the Sept 2019 news catapulted the SP from 20c to touch $1.30 by end-Oct. Since then, it has been low volume as sellers trickle stock into an uncaring market. For the last 6 weeks, it has been 30-40c and bouncing along the bottom.

Today and announcement of continued good grades and structural definition. Up 20% but that's to 47c
QUOTE
Strong Progress with Resource Drilling as Cayley Lode Delivers More Standout Intercepts and Grows to 1.5km.

Very broad copper-gold mineralised intercepts and good widths of high-grades in latest drilling,

  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 8 2020, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Wesfarmers chief executive Rob Scott said the conglomerate’s hardware chain Bunnings started from scratch with an online shopping platform just two years ago but was now “leading the way” in retail as customers gravitate to online in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

Following the demerger of Coles, Bunnings now generates just more than 50 per cent of Wesfarmers’ annual earnings and with the deteriorating performance of the conglomerate’s general merchandise chain Target and its industrials and safety divisions, the hardware chain’s contribution to profit is set to grow.

Mr Scott said Bunnings was leading the way in its roll out of online shopping. “Kmart and Target … achieved very strong growth in online sales and if I look at Bunnings, it is worth remembering that two years ago Bunnings didn’t have an online transactional capability and now in many ways I think Bunnings is leading the way around innovation in this area,’’ Mr Scott told a Macquarie conference. “The drive and collect model has been a fantastic initiative that has been adopted by Bunnings and Officeworks which essentially allows a customer to drive their car to a Bunnings warehouse store and one of our team members will drop the order off at the back of the boot.” Wesfarmers had also converted three Kmart stores to “dark stores” (distribution centres) to help support the lift in online demand. “It is worth noting that we have been able to win a number of new customers through this, so we are seeing that this is driving incremental sales and incremental customers to our business, not just cannibalising sales that would otherwise occur in the store.’’



Wesfarmers was also learning new digital skills from its recent acquisition of Catch.“We have seen very strong growth in sales in the Catch marketplace and we have also learnt a lot about the digital experience within the Catch business that we have been able to roll out in some of our other businesses,’’ he said. Wesfarmers, which is sitting on more than $2bn in cash following the partial sell down of its stake in Coles, would look to invest in online. “In terms of online investment we will very much be led by the divisions, and by the customer I guess, in how much we spend and how quickly we spend, we are seeing some great opportunities to invest in the digital space. “Interestingly, because a lot of software is cloud-based solutions, the upfront costs associated with a number of these are materially lower than they were five to 10 years ago. So a lot of the investment we are making is more opex (operational) than capex (capital) and you can get quite a lot of bang for your buck in terms of the investment you make.” Mr Scott said he expected more significant online investments to be made in its Bunnings, Kmart and Catch businesses.
Turning to trading, Mr Scott said “I would be very surprised, I think it will be unlikely to see the strong growth in sales that we have experienced in the last couple of months to continue. It would be great if they did, but I think realistically we would expect some moderation."
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 6 2020, 10:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

clear this up
Antibiotics don't work on viruses
Complications can develop when the immune system is suppressed, that are bacterial, such as pneumonia
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 5 2020, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

there are lots of floats still happening. We do, after all live in an age of transformation, and also where failure can be loaded on to other mugs. Some call it animal spirits
Just dropping this in as a handy reminder (hat tip to knobby22)
QUOTE
....in general why the raising? For Fundamental Investors this is very important.

You tend to have 4 different types:

Government e.g. CSL, Tabcorp, Telstra, - Government wants cash while making offer good enough to not lose votes. All the money goes to the Government.

Private Equity/ Merchant Bankers raising is selling an existing business that you have dressed up to make as much money as possible, e.g. Dick Smith, Myer etc. Usually the businesses are loaded up with debt and most of the money raised goes straight into the promoters pockets.

Smaller firms of chancers smelling an opportunity and getting the cash from the public. Mining explorers, biotech, sometimes dodgy brother type startups which are more about conning the punters.

Finally, real businesses being built up from foundation investors that go public to:
Get capital to enable faster expansion and allow the company to grow while cash flow negative, enable the founders to have a market to sell into once they have made their fortune (hopefully). e.g. Afterpay, Polynovo and this company.

If you look at an IPO and can't see the real reason for the float then stay away.

Its all about Risk versus Opportunity.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: May 5 2020, 11:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

It could be Friday (lost track)


Coronacoaster: The ups and downs of your mood during the pandemic. You’re loving lockdown one minute but suddenly weepy with anxiety the next (i.e., an emotional coronacoaster).

Quarantinis: Experimental cocktails mixed from whatever random ingredients you have left in the house. The boozy equivalent of a store cupboard supper. These are sipped at “locktail" hour, which seems to be creeping earlier with each passing week.

Blue Skype thinking: A work brainstorming session which takes place over a videoconferencing app. Such meetings might also be termed a “Zoomposium." Naturally, they are to be avoided if at all possible.

Le Creuset wrist: It’s the new “avocado hand” - an aching arm after taking one’s best saucepan outside to bang during the weekly ‘Clap For Carers.’ It might be heavy but you’re keen to impress the neighbours with your high-quality kitchenware.

Coronials: As opposed to millennials, this refers to the future generation of babies conceived or born during coronavirus quarantine. They might also become known as “Generation C” or, more spookily, “Children of the Quarn."

Furlough Merlot: Wine consumed in an attempt to relieve the frustration of isolation. Also known as “bored-eaux” or “cabernet tedium"

Coronadose: An overdose of bad news from consuming too much media during a time of crisis.

The elephant in the Zoom: The glaring issue during a videoconferencing call that nobody feels able to mention (e.g., one participant has dramatically put on weight, suddenly sprouted terrible facial hair or has a worryingly messy house visible in the background).

Quentin Quarantino: An attention-seeker using their time in lockdown to make amateur films which they’re convinced are funnier and cleverer than they actually are.

Covidiot or Wuhan-ker: One who ignores public health advice or behaves with reckless disregard for the safety of others can be said to display “covidiocy” or be “covidiotic." Also called a “lockclown” or even a “Wuhan-ker"

Goutbreak: The sudden fear that you’ve consumed so much wine, cheese, home-made cake and Easter chocolate in lockdown that your ankles are swelling up like a medieval king’s.

Antisocial distancing: Using health precautions as an excuse for snubbing neighbours and generally ignoring people you find irritating.

Mask-ara: Extra make-up applied to one's eye before venturing out in public wearing a face mask.

Covid-10: The 10 lbs.that we’re all gaining from comfort-eating and comfort-drinking. Also known as “fattening the curve
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: May 4 2020, 07:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Tricky times, but so far so good
QUOTE
The banks are battening down the hatches for a hard slog out of the crisis and boards have had to delicately balance the interests of retiree shareholders reliant on dividend income with banking regulator's demand that they maintain capital strength.

Ratings agencies have backed the banks' focus on stability and strength. After the Westpac result, S&P Global Ratings said a “strong capital base, its decision to defer its interim dividend and the strength of its domestic banking franchise provide a good buffer for the Australian major bank to absorb higher loan loss provisions".
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 4 2020, 11:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

On 4 April 2019, GrainCorp announced its intention to demerge its international malting business, United Malt, subject to shareholder and other approvals. The proposed Demerger will result in two independent ASX-listed companies:
  • United Malt, an international malting and craft brewing distribution business; and
  • GrainCorp, an domestic and international grain handling, storage, trading and processing business focused on grains, oilseeds, pulses, edible oils and feeds.
United Malt is the fourth largest commercial maltster globally, with approximately 1.25Mtpa of capacity and more than 95% average utilisation across 13 processing plants in Canada, United States of America (US), Australia and the United Kingdom (UK). UMG also operates an international distribution business, which provides a full service offering for craft brewers and distillers, including malt, hops, yeast, adjuncts and related products.

UMG generates earnings along the malt supply chain, from barley procurement and handling, malt processing, and sale and distribution of value-added malt products. UMG benefits from having high quality, low operating cost processing assets that are strategically located in premium barley growing regions, allowing it to source high quality barley and access a diverse range of customers, including global brewers, craft brewers, distillers and food companies.

It listed in late March 2020 .... took a year to get the demerger working
As 4th largest malt company in the world, it is essentially operating in English -speaking countries: Australia, USA, Canada and the UK.
QUOTE
...and the criteria for entry to new markets
 Craft beer consumption growth rates;
 Ease of doing business;
 Established logistics infrastructure;
 Level of competition and brand establishment;
 Disposable income levels to support consumption of higher-priced craft beer; and  Beer drinking culture
CUB have said beer sales are way down, no pubs so no kegs, and cans/bottles not taking up the slack, by any means
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 4 2020, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961


Three snippets on the declining US=China relationship

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...us-retaliation/


https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archiv...trategy/609088/


https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.c...61-916C6DD56395
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 4 2020, 12:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
prepared for the market to retest recent lows


When this thing started, I made a "sort of" plan for 12 months. Basically pull enough money out to live on for the while, and not be in a position of having to sell good assets at bad prices. That was in the bull market, and as it was, by 24 Feb I got to where I wanted. Hold a bit of gold for insurance, trim some holdings, maintain diversification and sit it out.

Now 2 and a bit months in, it's tricky just sitting, could have sold more earlier to clip a few SPPs coming along but in I didn't.

Still got nine months to go. Interesting times.

And that has happened. Now, how to position for the future, cos it isn't going to be like it was.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: May 1 2020, 10:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

raising capital at $4.75, from institutions ... a total of $134mill. There's also a SPP now open, up to $30K per application. Currently EOS trading at $4.44 but the VWAP calcs should see the offer price for retail fixed at lower that 4.75

Key points of the capital raising:
  • Backlog and pipeline expectations unchanged, with increased momentum of acquisition activity in key customer programs.
  • Logistical issues causing delivery and payment delays under some existing contracts despite full funding with irrevocable letter of credit.
  • Award of a material new contract from an existing customer expected within weeks, with no delivery or payment disruptions and on prompt payment terms.
  • FY2020 EBIT guidance revised to $27 million representing EBIT growth of 25%, reflecting decision to defer $9 million of EBIT relating to contracts with assumed disruption to delivery and payment.
  • Raising ~$134 million via a fully underwritten institutional placement of new fully paid ordinary shares to fund working capital for inventory expansion, investments to maintain growth, additional liquidity and transaction costs.
  • Upon resumption of payments under delayed contracts, expectation of significant funding flexibility to continue to pursue growth opportunities.

Clime Asset Management (CAM); it maintained its conviction in EOS and had this to say:

"
Defence and Space technologies developer Electro Optic Systems (EOS) was also unfairly caught in the sell-off, in our view, with shares falling
from over $10.00 in February to a low of $3.00 in March. EOS contracts to allied governments globally and as such we believe demand will be largely
unaffected by the economic downturn.

With cash of $78m, no debt, and a contract pipeline for its Defence products of $3bn, EOS is well placed over the medium term. At $3.00 per
share, the enterprise was trading at less than 10x EBIT, a remarkably cheap price for a company forecast to grow earnings at 45%+ in the coming years.

The long term opportunity in EOS is potentially immense. Presently, the Defence segment drives the company’s financial results. In the future
we think the Space and Communications segments may be the primary earnings drivers. These divisions were available as free options during March."
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: May 1 2020, 01:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

some weekend perusals:
Media worth consuming - April 2020
A monthly look at dozens of local and global media articles that often do not receive mainstream coverage in Australia. "It's sceptical, fun and revealing, often challenging consensus and accepted wisdom."


https://www.firstlinks.com.au/media-worth-c...ming-april-2020
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
high hopes that Trump would do the swamp cleaning
the morass became a quagmire

( Doesn't matter who you vote for, you always end up with a politician )
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 04:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Corporate Socialism: The Government is Bailing Out Investors & Managers Not You

(With Mark Spitznagel) Nassim Nicholas Taleb

1. If It’s Bailed Out, It’s a Utility

2. Second, these corporations are lobbying for bailouts, which they will eventually get thanks to the pressure they can exert on the government

3. Buffers, not debt

4. Not a Black Swan
QUOTE
Furthermore, some people claim that the pandemic is a “Black Swan”, hence something unexpected so not planning for it is excusable. The book they commonly cite is The Black Swan (by one of us). Had they read that book, they would have known that such a global pandemic is explicitly presented there as a white swan: something that would eventually take place with great certainty. Such acute pandemic is unavoidable, the result of the structure of the modern world; and its economic consequences would be compounded because of the increased connectivity and overoptimization.

https://medium.com/incerto/corporate-social...ou-3b31a67bff4a
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Is Private Equity Having Its Minsky Moment?

Matt Stoller Apr 17

QUOTE
Welcome to BIG, a newsletter about the politics of monopoly. If you’d like to sign up, you can do so here. Or just read on…

Today I’m going to write about how private equity is reacting to the pandemic and the bailouts. PE is heavily indebted, and therefore is at high risk in a shock. I’m going to explore PE’s vulnerability, and how the industry is engaged in a political strategy to repurpose the Federal Reserve to its ends. I’ll also explore whether their strategy can work....


https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/is-priva...ving-its-minsky
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 30 2020, 01:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Australia's grid could handle a huge leap in renewable power by 2025

QUOTE
Australia's main electricity grid will be able to accommodate up to 75 per cent renewable energy as soon as 2025, a higher share delivered sooner than the most optimistic previous assessments. Such a leap in renewable power on the grid could be managed by changes in market rules and regulations, the Australian Energy Market Operator, which manages the nation's energy system, has said in a new study.

“Australia has the technical capability to operate a power system where three-quarters of our energy at times comes from renewable energy resources," Audrey Zibelman, AEMO's chief executive, said. The tumbling cost and speed of building new solar and wind farms has already helped expand clean energy's share to about a quarter of the National Electricity Market. As recently as February, the Energy Security Board was predicting clean energy's share of supply would be 40 per cent by 2030.

On Easter Saturday, renewables' share of the NEM - which provides power to about 80 per cent of the population - topped 50 per cent. There have been concerns that Australia's grid, which was designed to connect to a handful of large scale generators, would not cope with the array of solar panels and wind turbines.

But in the new report, AEMO says it believes careful regulation of power generation can overcome these concerns. Achieving the three-quarter share will need changes in markets and regulation otherwise AEMO will have to impose curbs on renewable energy to ensure grid stability, Ms Zibelman said. If such adjustments don't happen, "AEMO will be required to curtail the contribution of these wind and solar resources to 50 or 60 per cent of their potential even though they are the lowest cost way of providing electricity", she said.

Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said Australia was installing renewable energy at 10 times the global rate on a per capita basis but AEMO's report highlighted challenges of maintaining that pace. Mr Taylor said renewables had to be complemented by instantly dispatchable energy "such as a gas-fired power station [that] will be crucial to maintaining the security of any large power system".

AEMO earlier this week revealed more about its view of the future grid in a note to stakeholders about the role technologies such as pumped hydro and batteries will play. The cost of building new transmission lines has risen about 30 per cent compared with initial estimates in its Integrated System Plan (ISP). For new gas-fired plants, the cost blowout is in the order of 30-60 per cent, AEMO said.

Pumped hydro, which is seen as an important back-up for renewable energy, could turn out to be 50 per cent more expensive than estimates in its draft ISP.

"[I]t was recognised that there are higher risks and barriers to investment in pumped hydro compared to other forms of storage, as evidenced by the higher number of utility-scale battery projects currently being planned across the NEM," AEMO said. Big battery costs may be 30 to 40 per cent cheaper than earlier forecast.

Despite those revisions, an AEMO spokesman said they did "not apply to the Snowy 2.0 project", the $5 billion-plus plan announced by the Turnbull government to expand Snowy Hydro's existing capacity.

"[T]he pumped hydro cost increases referred to in the ‘progress update on 2020 ISP’ only apply to future, and as yet uncommitted, pumped hydro projects in mainland Australia," he said. "The [AEMO] changes suggest a scenario or sensitivity without Snowy 2.0 is even more worthwhile to investigate than it already was," said Dylan McConnell, an energy expert at Melbourne University. "The 2018 ISP essentially showed Snowy 2.0 crowded out other storage options," he said. "Assuming this is the case - and the cost updates are accurate - then Snowy 2.0 is more unlikely to be the least-cost solution."

Mr Taylor, though, defended his government's support for the giant project: "Snowy 2.0 is the cheapest option to deliver both the necessary firm capacity and large scale storage within a single project."


http://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-s...54obe.html?btis
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 29 2020, 06:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

haven't really paid attention to this (yet another) biotech
QUOTE
Memphasys Limited (MEM) is primarily involved in the development and manufacture of cell and protein separation devices, and associated consumables, for use in Healthcare, Veterinary and Biotechnology market sectors.
the Felix device seems to be the latest story (see Sharecafe article from mirrors; below)

Market cap around $14mill, SP up and down, yes a cap raising is likely
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

triage (and others)
hat-tip to Investoboy
Contagion in Oil futures. Paper buyers and Physical sellers.

when storage tanks are full, what happens? (= the May anomaly of negative prices likely to occur again)
Retail is piling in to ETPs like USO; producers have buyers BUT futures have an end date. Normally, settlement of paper and rolling forward is achievable, but the imbalance is pushing out into following months

https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collec...with-jim-bianco
ETPs not necessarily capped at zero. .... a loss that won't be covered, so who carries the loss. Broker, manager, exchange? And the squeeze. 130,000 July contract. 100,000 Aug contracts. (June should be OK as Cushing may absorb)
USO owns 1/4 of market, broker can't liquidate if there are no buyers of physical oil. (no wonder trump wants to kick start economy)

But how do you buy a failed market??? Are ETPs a flawed structure? will this bring everything down like mortgages did in 2008?
Financial incentive to continue to produce oil that has no place to be stored. Producers have binary choice, to keep pumping or shut down (and trigger widespread defaults which are already junk status)
When?
there is a sequence of events. By early June (July contracts) out of storage; .... rinse, repeat
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 28 2020, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

aa bit old (two weeks). I'm finding it hard to work out the implications of what is happening, other than the outcome would be worse if governments didn't intervene

https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1248359832199090182

4'30" interview; Paul McCulley basically saying Fed Treasury and congress working together to save the system, and that the U.S central bank has decided to defend and protect the economic and financial system of the United States and damn the consequences of such trifling concerns as the size of its balance sheet.

Is there moral hazard? Yes
Has Price Discovery been smashed? Yes
Will it end in tears? Maybe not.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 06:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

you'd have to think those arguing against the COVIDSafe App would be happy to maintain the status quo; that they have jobs and secure income and don't need the economy to restart sooner rather than later.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 05:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Haha.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 04:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I know 3 'grumpy old men' with mobile phones (not smart)
QUOTE
father still uses a flip up mobile phone that I gave to him about 10 years ago.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

.
QUOTE
the OPEC deal and other cuts deal isn’t enough, not with a 29 million barrels a day drop in demand this month, according to the International Energy Agency which reckons total demand this year will be around 89 million barrels, down from 101 million a day in 2019.

The 9.7 million barrels a day cut by OPEC only lasts till the end of June, then it drops to 8 million a day.
QUOTE
Reuters reports that there are suggestions from Russia that it might start burning oil in the open because it can’t store its surplus. That will be great for global warming. More gas is also now being flared as well around the world.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/27/can...the-oil-market/
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

triage said elsewhere, about the current price shakeout
QUOTE
I have read one argument that even if many / most US oil shalers go broke then someone else will buy the assets for a really low price and the US will become able to be competitive even with oil staying supercheap.

With the shale oil drilling, the swing producers, one challenge is if drilling is stopped, it is quite likely impossible to return to previous output. Shale has short timeframes and needs fraccing, horizontal drilling, etc. If the pumps are halted, formation may close off, collapse.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/Wor...-At-31-Oil.html
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 27 2020, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

they're probably anti-vaxxers, as well. Groupthink, without much thinking
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 26 2020, 06:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

congrats, brett,

yes, its a pity the sheer inanity distorts/ destroys any meaningful discussion
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 25 2020, 08:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Lithium metal polymer battery

https://electrek-co.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/...oves-forward%2F
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 24 2020, 08:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
We have seen demand for hair clippers go through the roof, right, as people are now involved in home hair care”
Frans Van Touten, CEO, Philips Electronics NV


And I'd reckon Breville's gadgets are doing ok in this homestay environment
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 24 2020, 07:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

and NO reporter interjects "Are you insane?"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 24 2020, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

A 1 for 10 entilement offer at 13c, plus ine right for every new share, same as FGROC


Raising $6million
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 23 2020, 09:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

this time it's actually coming.

Australia’s inflation has been dipping below target for months, but it now looks like inflation is reversing altogether, even just for a period.

QUOTE
[“In terms of inflation, we are also expecting a significant decline in the June quarter. The large fall in oil prices, combined with the introduction of free childcare and the deferral or reduction in some price increases mean that it is quite likely that year-ended headline inflation will turn negative in June,” RBA Governor Philip Lowe said.

“If so, this would be the first time since the early 1960s that the price level has fallen over a full year. In underlying terms, however, inflation is expected to remain positive.”]


The interesting thing will be the skew of components. Some parts of the economy ticked along (staples) but others have fallen in a heap. Petrol prices have dropped considerably, and consumption patterns must have altered dramatically. Purchases are likely to be deferred because of job uncertainty / unemployment; the likelihood of deflation may see more deferrals.


While price falls might seem like a good thing for the hip pocket, it’s a general sign that things are going badly, any signs of broader macroeconomic collapse that will ultimately be bad for everyone.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 09:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

another 52 villagers massacred
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52381507
QUOTE
Islamist militants have killed around 52 people in northern Mozambique, police say. The police say that the villagers in Cabo Delgado province were "massacred", with some beheaded, after some people refused to be recruited into the militant group.

Hundreds have been killed and thousands displaced during the three-year insurgency in Cabo Delgado.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 08:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Covid toes
QUOTE
Doctors identified a new symptom of COVID-19, caused by the novel coronavirus, informally dubbed “COVID toes.” The presence of purple or blue lesions on a patient’s feet and toes puzzles infectious disease experts.

“They’re typically painful to touch and could have a hot burning sensation,” said Dr. Ebbing Lautenbach, chief of infectious disease at the University of Pennsylvania's School of Medicine.

What doctors said is most interesting about "COVID toes" is that they appear in COVID-19 patients who don’t exhibit any other symptoms. Similarly, the loss of taste and smell was found to be associated with COVID-19 among otherwise asymptomatic patients by the American Academy of Otolaryngology ~ Head and Neck Surgery and ENT UK in late March.

“This is a manifestation that occurs early on in the disease, meaning you have this first, then you progress,” Lautenbach said. “Sometimes this might be your first clue that they have COVID when they don’t have any other symptoms.”

“COVID toes” in some people can disappear in the course of a week to 10 days, but others progress to respiratory symptoms, he said.​


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/...ple/2994930001/
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 22 2020, 01:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
i smashed piggy bank to bought heaps more.

As long as it's not the kids' piggy banks smile.gif

Sophisticated thinking ....make a plan and stick to it.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 09:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Analysts at Macquarie have warned that Sydney Airport's earnings may be hurt by Virgin's collapse into administration, but said a restructuring of the collapsed airline may allow domestic flight slots – which airlines book for landings and take-offs – to be opened up for international flights, which make more money for airports.

Aeronautical services accounted for nearly half of the airport's 2019 group revenues, contributing $739.3 million.

A Virgin restructure could also allow Sydney Airport to reorganise its terminals, Macquarie analysts said.

"Virgin’s potential restructure may allow for a reconsideration of T2 [the current Virgin hub] and its use with scope for Virgin moving to T1 [the international terminal] and Qantas using T2/T3 along with a down-sized T4 [a proposed new terminal] as the additional capacity is reduced."

Analysts do not expect most domestic flights in Australia to resume until October, and are forecasting international flights will not restart until January 2021.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 09:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
The Chinese experience perhaps offers a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel for the world. Activities in China are fast returning to a degree of normalcy ... streets are full of cars again, people are strolling in parks, returning to shopping malls and travelling domestically. School is finally restarting, and they may even do away with their masks soon. Economic activities are picking up after a dismal month in February when the country was effectively shut down for business.


The Purchasing Managers’ Index, an indicator of future economic activity, bounced back from a low of 36 in February to above 52 in March (source: FactSet). A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in economic activity and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. E-commerce volume and express parcel delivery volumes have both fully recovered and are likely to see growth this year compared to last year. Property sales for listed developers have normalised, as sales offices have re-opened and potential buyers have returned. The authorities have loosened property policies at the margin to give it a helping hand.

Construction at most building sites has restarted, with many labourers working extra hard to make up lost ground and meet apartment completion dates. Most shopping malls and restaurants have re-opened and customers have started to return. KFC in China has re-opened most of its previously closed restaurants and sales are recovering, particularly in the delivery business. Chain supermarket and convenience stores have mostly re-opened and their sales have exceeded levels recorded for the same period last year, as more people are dining at home.

The China experience is somewhat illustrative of what can be expected if the pandemic can be controlled. Activity can improve to some degree of normalcy, even though a vaccine has not yet been discovered. Over the medium-to-longer term, one can be optimistic. The global effort to develop a vaccine is in earnest and such an intense global scientific effort to find the solution cannot be underestimated.
Platinum Asia PAI Quarterly
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 08:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

don't want to rub your noese in it, eb, but the current oil collapse is remarkable

In the US (and likely replicated worldwide)
Diesel demand down 20%
Gasoline demand down 50%
Aviation fuel/kero down 80%

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/cru....html?optid=425
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 07:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Yes, too true.

(I had the malicious thought, that her lovers would probably have shorter life expectancies than her brother's doctors)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 02:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
The move by Virgin extinguishes its current foreign ownership, leaving expectations that would emerge from administration as a scaled-down, low-cost, domestic airline once the skies are opened up again post-pandemic.

Several serious bidders are believed to be in play, including Australian-run private equity firm BGH and another consortium involving existing shareholder Etihad Airways. Virgin’s other key existing shareholder Singapore is also expected to be eyeing a continued stake in the collapsed airline.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 02:37 PM


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Rocket Boy in poor shape


(market barely moved)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 02:25 PM


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Posts: 6,961

PKS will acquire software-as-a-service healthcare business Pavilion Health, in an all scrip deal that values the target at $8.5 million. Pavilion shareholders will be issued 65.2 million new PKS shares as part of the deal, about 35 per cent of the company post acquisition.

Pavilion is a cloud-based software company that provides audit, risk and consulting software services to hospitals and health bodies. Its customers include 550 hospitals in Australia (owned by the likes of listed giant Ramsay Health Care and private player Healthscope). Established in 2007, Pavilion generated $4.37 million in sales in the 2019 financial year and earnings of $1.66 million.

PKS said it would be looking to combine its software products with Pavilion's to create a more compelling value proposition to potential customers and also facilitate cross-selling and upselling.

PKS offers its customers a clinical decision management system, which uses patient data and clinical expertise to deliver patient-specific reports, recommendations and alerts.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 02:14 PM


Group: Member
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QUOTE
In addition to [BHPs] record iron ore production in the Pilbara, production was 7 per cent higher year on year at 60 million tonnes, there was record production at the Caval Ridge coal mine in Queensland and record average concentrator throughput was delivered at Chilean copper mine Escondida.

Full-year guidance remains unchanged for iron ore, metallurgical coal and petroleum, while minor trimming of guidance in other commodities is mainly due to COVID-19 putting the brakes on some operations.

Crucially, full-year cost guidance remains unchanged, suggesting the lower Australian dollar has helped to offset the increased costs associated with running mines and other operations in a socially distanced way.

With production strong and costs contained, the final piece of the puzzle is price – and it’s here where BHP has really good news for investors, and Australia.

One of the surprising features of the COVID-19 crisis is the resilience of iron ore, which has stayed above $US80 a tonne throughout. To put this in perspective, BHP’s full-year cost guidance for iron ore is for unit costs of $US13 to $US14 a tonne – that’s a hell of a margin in anyone’s language.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 01:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Regional Express (Rex) has today signed a Commonwealth Grant Agreement under the COVID-19 Regional Airline Network Support program announced by Deputy Prime Minister, the Hon Michael McCormack, on 28 March 2020. Under the program, regional airline carriers will be provided assistance to maintain a minimal weekly schedule to regional and remote ports. The RANS program will provide funding for up to six months with an initial approval for six weeks.

Under the Grant Agreement, Rex will receive funding to operate 1-2 return services a week to most destinations on the Rex network.


If you look at the announcement, of the 76 service requests, some 38 were approved.

WA (services regulated by state govt) gets one flight a week ex-Perth to Albany, Esperance and Carnarvon.
Qld (services regulated by state govt) gets a mix, but all One flight a week on Northern routes ex Cairns and Townsville, as well as ex-Brisbane. Most are multi-stop routes out west.
Qld (unregulated): one a week Townsville-Cairns, Cairns-Mt Isa, Cairns-Bamaga
SA (unregulated) get most services, one flight a week; Pt Lincoln, Mt Gambier, Broken Hill, Ceduna, Whyalla, Kangaroo Is.
Vic (unregulated) get all services, 1-2 flights a week: Mildura, King Is/ Burnie, Albury/ Wagga, Merimbula
NSW (unregulated): 1-2 a week to most places, Cooma, Moruya/Merimbula, Broken Hill/Dubbo, Orange, Bathurst/Parkes, Grafton/Lismore, Wagga, Albury, Griffiths/Narrandera,

(Glaring exception Armidale .... tough luck Barnaby ?)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 12:27 PM


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Aurizon and Linfox have increased the number of weekly intermodal [rail]services by 20 per cent but an Aurizon spokeswoman said the health and wellbeing of workers remained a priority.

“We continue to book train drivers in for the required health assessments,” the spokeswoman said. “We have not had any issues to date but we welcome the rail industry being given the flexibility by the Queensland Government should the need arise.”

Australian Rail Track Corporation CEO John Fullerton recently said national general freight movements on its 8500km network had increased 14 per cent in March.
QUOTE
“The COVID-19 outbreak has sparked an unprecedented challenge for Australia’s freight and transport industry, with the country’s demand for critical supplies prompting a surge in rail freight,” Fullerton said.

“Moving freight to cities and regional towns across the country has never been so important, which is why the government has deemed our industry an essential service.

“This puts a lot of responsibility on our shoulders; but in collaboration with our rail freight customers, government and industry partners it’s been wonderful to see our teams rise to the challenge to keep Australia’s supply chain intact and our economy moving."
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 11:35 AM


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I've always thought Don Stammer was a sensible viewer of the macro implications. Looking forward to his next contribution. 👍
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 11:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Rationally, no one's going to make money selling oil at sub $20 a bbl, at least not for long.

But when there's a 30% drop in demand (imagine the price for Avgas ?!) with lockdowns and economic slump, then two of the three biggest producers, Saudi and Russia, go head to head while the third player USA has a lot of high cost producers, then what have we got.

Volatility. and a real shake out.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 21 2020, 06:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Energy traders bailed out of the expiring May US oil futures contract in a frenzy on Monday, sending the contract to a record of -$US35.20 (-$55.38) a barrel or a fall of 292.7 per cent at 4.34am AEDT as few buyers are willing to take delivery of actual physical barrels of oil because there is no place to put the crude.

Benchmark US crude oil for June delivery, which shows a more "normal" price, fell 16.5 per cent to $US20.90 per barrel.

With demand down 30 per cent worldwide due to the coronavirus pandemic, and the main US storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma expected to fill up in a matter of weeks, very few want to be stuck with oil barrels that they have to take delivery on at some point during May. Major oil-producing nations have agreed to cut output and global oil companies are trimming production, but those cuts will not come quickly enough to avoid a massive clog.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 08:33 PM


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Posts: 6,961

This is the endgame for VAH, but it's now in the hands of the receivers = Voluntary Administration (Hopefully)

The administrators will shop it around, hoping to keep it intact, hoping another configuration will take it over. And, there's a very good reason, one aligned with the fact VA has been flying once a day SYD-MEL-SYD, just to keep operating

A question was asked elsewhere: is there some legal, regulatory etc thing that to be considered as an airline and maintain the relevant licenses and so on they have to actually be running a regular service somewhere?

Answer: (hat-tip Altron 57)
QUOTE
Yep, the AOC - Air Operators Certificate - the final one-page approval document from CASA to start operating your airline. They take years of work and millions - even tens of millions - of dollars of setup costs to get.

Only granted after everything else is in place and signed off by the regulator - training systems, ops manuals, safety management systems, approvals of key personnel (CASA have to personally approve the candidates for CEO, head of flight ops, head of maintenance, head of flight training, and some others, to make sure they have the requisite experience and respect for safety), multiple practice operations (trial flights of proposed routes, using real aircraft and crew, but carrying no passengers, with CASA inspectors in the cockpit and on the ground monitoring everything that happens), maintenance training, inspections of spare parts stores, parts record-keeping, dangerous goods, pilot training standards, audits of baggage handlers, refuellers, pushback drivers... it takes years.

Then, finally, one day the boss of the CASA team of 20 people who oversaw your three years of work, and who had to approve thousands of your documents and procedures, walks in and plonks down your shiny new AOC and now you're an airline.

An AOC is one of the most valuable assets an airline has and if they completely stop flying it is at risk. Once it's gone you have to go through the whole multi-year startup process again, so even if an airline is on the point of insolvency they will keep flying enough to keep the AOC valid. Otherwise there is no airline to rescue.

So, going on for a while is a giant game of bluff. Who blinks first? We need 2 airlines (3 doesn't work, think Compass) for competition where the regulator can 'encourage' competition. But if one falls, completely, we'll only have ONE until a new entity emerges, in a year or three. But we don't want the commies to take over, so who's it going to be. SQ? Maybe in with Air NZ? Private bloody equity?The pissant super funds won't get involved, they're too gormless to run a Mr Whippy van.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 08:14 PM


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Officially. In the receivers' hands..... Been running a poor second for years.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 04:14 PM


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And then there's Covid-19

QUOTE
Australia’s biggest gateway, Sydney Airport, will borrow $850m and scrap its half-year dividend after recording a 97 per cent fall in passenger numbers this month, and warning of more of the same to come.

But in a surprising move, the airport has given its employees a “six month job guarantee” promising to preserve all jobs on full pay until October 1.

Domestic passengers plunged 97.4 per cent and international travellers were down 96.1 per cent in the first 16 days of April compared to the same period last year.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 02:24 PM


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Posts: 6,961

A fundie holding EGH has a view that independent living is coping OK, even if the shareprice hasn't picked up since Covid-19 impact hit
QUOTE
• EGH have seen no changes in occupancy levels to date.
• Systems and processes have been put in place to minimise risk across all EGH villages.
• Total asset value is $0.34 per share with net debt of circa 40% as at 31 December 2019.
• >90% of cash flows are through contracted rental accommodation agreements.

Got to 40c but now hovering around 28c, with little rebound
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 01:00 PM


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Posts: 6,961

Oil production in the USA, as well as the marginal shale gas producers, may well take a hit if the latest rig numbers are factored in. With the current volatility, Covid-19 as well as OPEC falling apart with the Russia/ Saudi standoff game of bluff, there's a lot happening.
QUOTE
A collapse in US oil production is coming; it could continue to trickle out, as it has been doing in the past three weeks, or it will arrive quickly in a couple of weeks in May with a rush of cuts from companies large and small. These will be in addition to the 9.7 million barrels a day cut announced by OPEC, Russia and several smaller producers, and on top of cuts already factored in for the US, Norway, Canada

But it is coming in the US; last week’s near-record plunge in the number of rigs looking for oil in the US guarantees it.

In its regular report on Friday, Baker Hughes reported that the number of active rigs drilling for oil in the US dropped by 66 to 438 last week. That was the fifth straight weekly declines and suggests that oil production is headed for a sharp and early fall. The number has fallen by 126 in a fortnight. In fact, the number of rigs at 438 is down 205 from March 20 this year and 415 or nearly 50% from the year-ago figure of 853 oil rigs.

Including gas rigs, the fall is more dramatic.

US production is already down around 600,000 barrels a day according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to 12.4 million barrels a day

According to Reuters, US and Canadian energy companies have lopped around 730,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the past couple of weeks, with the largest coming from ConocoPhillips last Thursday with a cut of 200,000 boepd.

Along with Chevron, which slashed its output in the Permian basin by 20% or 125,000 bpd, and Occidental Petroleum, which reduced 2020 output by 85,000 boepd, the three companies account for 410,000 boepd of the reductions announced by US and Canadian companies, Reuters reported.

As well, other cuts have come from BP of about 70,000 boepd this year, (a 14% drop from its 2019 output of 499,000 boepd) and Cenovus Energy, one of Canada’s largest oil companies, which has revealed production cuts of 40,000 to 45,000 bpd.

The EIA says US production could drop as much as 1.7 million bpd from fourth-quarter 2019 to the fourth-quarter of this year. However, the EIA expects production for the year to average 11.8 million bpd in 2020, down 500,000 bpd from 2019. Daily production at the end of this year could be as low as 10.5 to 10.6 million barrels a day.

Reuters said Canadian production cuts already amount to at least 325,000 bpd, and analysts estimate that 1.1 million to 1.7 million bpd could be shut in eventually; the country currently produces roughly 4.5 million bpd, most of which is in the oil sands of the western province of Alberta.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/20/rig...oil-production/
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 20 2020, 07:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
chief executive Graham Chipchase has clearly had plenty on his plate. In the group’s CHEP pallet business, the rush of buying seen in supermarkets around the globe has been great news for a business unit that derives 80 per cent of its revenue from moving consumer goods around the place.

But despite demand soaring to record levels, Brambles has trimmed sales and earnings guidance slightly.

Not only is it being hit by the shutdown of the automotive and hospitality industries – where a stop on beer deliveries means Brambles' Kegstar business is struggling – but meeting the increased demand from the consumer goods sector has come at a price.

Chipchase says the increase in demand and changes to network flows created by COVID-19 “have driven short-term increases in supply chain costs” that are eating into margins


The market update underscores just how hard it is to read the pandemic’s impact..... even the upside has costs
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 19 2020, 02:14 PM


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Its an Israeli guy, Yuval Noah Harari. He wrote Sapiens and Homo Deus.


Google name and there are lots of links to his talks and articles, as well as website https://www.ynharari.com/

Most recent articles are:
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/05/827582502/a-...-pandemic-world
https://amp.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11...9-1fe6fedcca75#
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 19 2020, 11:39 AM


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Posts: 6,961

There's a good joke going around: MT on the hustings; "Run out of toilet paper? Buy my book."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 18 2020, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Most landlords are already losing money on their investment, which may explain the hesitance to cut rents for struggling tenants, experts say. Landlords who own a negatively geared property – where the rental income is not enough to cover the associated costs of owning the property, such as home loan repayments – have to personally make up the shortfall.

At tax time, the amount that landlord has lost is deducted from their income tax bill, often delivering them a windfall by way of tax return.

Since the shutdown of non-essential industries and the restriction of movement due to the coronavirus outbreak, a potential rental crisis has emerged.

Renters, more likely to be on lower incomes and employed in the industries first hit by the shutdowns such as hospitality, the arts and tourism, became concerned about how they’d pay rent, and landlords became concerned about how they’d manage repayments, interest and insurance without rents coming in.

Australian Tax Office data from 2016-17 shows 58 per cent of investment properties are negatively geared.
OK, we know that. But isn't there a lot of pain everywhere?
QUOTE
But experts argue landlords who negatively gear are usually richer and are in a better position to take the financial hit.

Because these arrangements could usually be intentional, these landlords should be prepared to take a hit on their rental income, Domain economist Trent Wiltshire said.

“People that negatively gear properties are not using the rental income as an income support as such,” he said. “Mostly these people have deliberately set up their arrangements so they can reduce the amount of income tax paid. Landlords who negatively gear are typically high-income earners; they probably have higher savings so they should be able to deal with the rent reduction, but that’s on average, not everyone’s like that.”
https://www-domain-com-au.cdn.ampproject.or...nants-948993%2F
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 18 2020, 01:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

"megadrought" in California and the West

https://www-mercurynews-com.cdn.ampproject....new-study-finds
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 18 2020, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

"Who said it first?"

The person with the lesser mind?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 07:49 PM


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Posts: 6,961

While China has begun reopening large parts of its economy after a country-wide lockdown, its gross domestic product (GDP) data released today showed a 6.8% year-on-year plunge, China's first economic contraction since it began reporting in 1992.

Beijing has responded to the coronavirus with significant monetary stimulus and we expect further fiscal and monetary stimulus to follow. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has cut the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) for all banks and Total Social Financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, rose to a record 5.15 trillion yuan (USD 732 billion) in March. As our largest trading partner, Chinese fiscal stimulus will benefit Australia...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 03:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Bob Marley with Sly and Robbie @ Festival Hall in, I think, 1981. One of the best shows ever.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
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Ok okay. bit early today. smile.gif

actually a well constructed pun
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 09:27 AM


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we're talking about Mali? If so, then some of the best music around. At least from the 70's through to the 90's. Gone a bit overproduced since then.


Favourites include Ali Farka Touré (Talkin' Timbuku, with Ry Cooder) and Rokia Treoré, but best was the 1970's band of the Bamako Railway Band (officially Super Rail Band of the Buffet Hotel de la Gare, Bamako) with Salif Keita on vocals. Also Orchestra Baobab but they're more Senegalese, and if you want wild, get into Tuareg bands such as Tinariwen.


Isis insurgency and Libyan instability hasn't helped the sub-Saharan / Sahel region though
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 17 2020, 06:02 AM


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Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Looks a bit violent after further reading...
good music, though 🎶
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 02:16 PM


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Posts: 6,961

maybe this thread could be renamed
QUOTE
"Seeking shares with any dividend yield, (but I'd be wary of dividend reinvestment)"

QUOTE
UBS says so far, 38 stocks in the ASX 200 have suspended, deferred or cut dividends and a further 60 have seen dividend per share forecasts fall by more than 20 per cent. This is at a time that companies, such as those in the financial services space, abandon their payouts to conserve cash on the back of the coronavirus crisis.

UBS have selected Aurizon, Ausnet Metcash, Coles Group, APA Group and Woolworths as having the best prospects for investors focused on dividend payments.
They believe AGL Energy, Amcor, Brambles, Bunnings landlord BWP Trust, CSL, Inghams, Kogan, Magellan, ResMed Rural Funds, Wesfarmers, Telstra and Clover Corporation will provide reliable earnings streams.

Their analysts highlight SkyCity, Sydney Airport, JB Hi-Fi, Scentre Group, Challenger and Vicinity Centres as having dividend payout expectations that are too high. Other companies likely to pay a smaller dividend in the year ahead, or no dividend, are Alumina, ANZ, NAB, Northern Star, Oz Minerals, QBE, Servcorp, Stockland, Western Areas and Westpac.


Note earnings streams and dividends aren't the same
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Imo people are blind to whats really going on....
Indeed. Cast your mind back a month or so, and the uproar about people putting up with cockroaches in a facility, in care and maintenance, where they're to be quarantined for 2 weeks, after getting off a vessel in Japan where transmission was shown to be happening.

Fast forward to today; we have real data from Italy, Spain, UK, USA and elsewhere that is truly frightening.

Now think how we might be viewing the current news of an outbreak in NW Tassie, if this thing gets out of control (which has a high likelihood)


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 16 2020, 08:37 AM


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Posts: 6,961

Some numbers (just for record, and ASX looking lower -117)

AUD -1.9% to 63.21 US cents (overnight low 62.84)
On Wall St: Dow -1.9% S&P 500 -2.2% Nasdaq -1.4%
In New York: BHP -4.8%; Rio -4.1%; Atlassian -0.7%; Tesla +2.8%; JPMorgan -4.9%; ExxonMobil -4.6%

In Europe: Stoxx 50 -3.8%; FTSE -3.3%; CAC -3.8%; DAX -3.9%
Spot gold -0.4% to $US1719.72 an ounce
Brent crude -5.2% to $US28.06 a barrel
US oil +0.6% to $US20.22 a barrel
Iron ore -0.2% to $US86.86 a tonne
Dalian iron ore +0.3% to 606.5 yuan
LME aluminium +0.1% to $US1505.50 a tonne
LME copper -1.1% to $US5106 a tonne
2-year yield: US 0.20% Australia 0.22%
5-year yield: US 0.34% Australia 0.44%
10-year yield: US 0.63%; Australia 0.90%; Germany 0.47
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 15 2020, 07:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

But then, there's distinct and changing usage since the virus became an issue. A view is, as we go longer in lockdown, that this has "driven business and entertainment online, but left telcos spending to service surging demand, and, with fixed pricing structures, no quick way to monetise the investment."

"At the same time, roaming revenue has dried up as people travel less, and telcos are bracing for a slump in new contracts accompanying a wave of unemployment as businesses shut."
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 15 2020, 11:32 AM


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Significant nickel-palladium discovery confirmed at Julimar ​

New wide high-grade palladium-nickel-copper zone intersected ~60m east of the discovery hole, plus wide palladium intervals in all six drill holes assayed to date.

This discovery is 70km NE of Perth; there's also exploration in Vic and in Quebec. Spread a bit thin for my liking (but up nearly double this morning; was 20c in late Feb but is now $1.00)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 03:06 PM


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Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
... while investment markets are suffering the adverse impacts of the pandemic, at the end of March, over 57% of your Alternatives Fund’s portfolio is in cash (25.4%) and Water Fund investments (32.1% on an aggregated basis). This is serving you well in the current crisis. The Agricultural and Water investments within the portfolio (approximately 42% of the overall portfolio) have felt little to no impact to date, with Water having a strong month. Demand for farm produce has not fallen, and all of the export channels remain open.

The portfolio also has a number of unhedged investments across the broader portfolio, in particular investments into the US (esVolta, Cove). These were insulated to a degree by the 13% or so fall in the Australian dollar over the last quarter (6% fall in March). However, there are certainly significant negative impacts in the other parts of the portfolio, and the portfolio managers and the Board have been taking action to mark down carrying values as a result.

Following the asset review, the Board confirms that the pre-tax NTA of the Alternatives Fund decreased by 1.94 cents per share, or 1.73%, to $1.1033 per share in March. The decrease was the result of a combination of manager valuation adjustments as well as additional provisions introduced by the Board. The Growth Capital and Venture Capital portfolios (comprising 26% of the overall portfolio) were most significantly impacted, with investments adjusted anywhere between 0% and 37% downward. The expected outlook remains wide-ranging from severe to neutral and in some instances positive. Healthcare and consumer staple exposures are obvious examples of sectors that have held up comparatively well.


Shareholders seem to be offloading still. Was mid-60's prior to this Ann, but has lifted to 73c. Wilson hasn't managed to stop the outflow (Covid cashing out a likely contributor, as the buybacks offer a liquidity that may not be found elsewhere)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 02:57 PM


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Posts: 6,961

no-one is immune
QUOTE
Due to the unique nature of this external market shock, global infrastructure stocks proved less defensive than might be expected and modestly underperformed broader equity markets.

With transportation-related businesses particularly vulnerable to the effects of severe travel restrictions and reduced economic activity, airport stocks plunged -29.2% and toll roads fell -24.5%. Midstream energy stocks also tumbled -26.8% as the unparalleled collapse in global oil demand coincided with OPEC oversupply issues. However, roughly two thirds of infrastructure sectors are less-economically reactive with communications tower companies holding up much better in a relative sense, as did water, gas and electricity utilities.

In March, while the Australian share market fell -20.7%, Argo Infrastructure’s portfolio returned -8.5%, ahead of the benchmark Index (down -11.0%) with positions in communications towers, data centers and water utilities contributing to performance.

NTA is $2.35 at end-March, so ALI is trading well below at $2.01 ..... (Of course, the rights issue was pulled)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 14 2020, 01:54 PM


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Posts: 6,961

um, tricky. The wonderful wacky world of retirement post Covid-19 (whenever that may be) is probably due for a shake-up. There has been a fair bit of wealth destruction and I'd reckon caution will reemerge with respect to asset protection. Less money to spend, less frivolity.

There's likely to be far fewer participants, so charmingly referred to as 'wealthy geriatrics', heading off anywhere,and they'll be sht-scared to go on a cruise (let alone, will there be some/ any form of insurance for OS travel?).

In fact, there may be far fewer participants, full stop. It depends on any success in current/ future efforts to halt the spread. Life expectancy tables may show a plateauing or even a dip in years to come.https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3302.0.55.001

The bucket list will probably be reconfigured. Travel will probably take longer to recover than many are thinking. I can see easing of measures that are now in place being wound back only incrementally. First, intra-state, to revive some of the regional economies. Then interstate, when state governments (that control the Health Departments) think its OK. International flights ... even longer, and those deemed essential in nature, only. Quarantine may last longer than we think.

And of course the cheap airfare structure that allowed this may be in for a shake-up. Inflexible arrangements a year out - who's going to go along with such structures. And, again, the mickey mouse 'insurance' offering needs revisiting. All of this is going to man more expensive tix, IMO.

So, what will we have? It may all get back to normal, but probably only after 5-10 years. Until then, "short stays" up and down the coast? The other observable sub-group, the almost ubiquitous 'grey nomads', could roar back with a vengeance .

Am happy to see the cruise industry rust away. Decimation is only 10%; I'm hoping for 90% evisceration.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 13 2020, 04:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
.. parasitic law firms are lining up in droves to start the COVID-19 based class action suits....
and we all know how they operate.


Now, with the (otherwise delightful) consequence that cruise liners may not be around for much longer
QUOTE
Flags of convenience make the cruise ship industry one of the world's least regulated, with owners and operators able to skirt more stringent workplace, health, safety and environmental rules........

Carnival Corporation is headquartered in Miami, as are the second and third biggest cruise corporations, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian. But Carnival is incorporated in Panama, Norwegian in Bermuda, and Royal Caribbean in Liberia. Now these "incorporations of convenience" threaten their survival. Their revenue has been cut to zero. The US Government is offering no assistance because they're foreign companies and their employees are spread across the world. Other governments are unlikely to do more.

Industry analysts say the big cruise operators have enough reserves to last six months. After that, if they don't secure funding, they face going out of business.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coro...-ships/12141140

and if the operators have no money, then the ghouls will come after the health, immigration, port authorities; anyone with deep pockets (US as taxpayers). Going to be a bunfight.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 09:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
There will be inequality in winners and losers.
- the sheer randomness (on the most part) is a feature. Sliding doors stuff.
- Travel last year and have a great time; go this year, get stuck and, in all likelihood, be out of pocket, or sick, or worse
- Do a degree, get a job and you may still have it; do another degree and work in a cafe for cash, and it's tough.

The sheer speed of the virus impact meant it may have been almost impossible to change tack (buying a house, changing work, etc) but I haven't much sympathy for people who travelled after 9 March, or stayed OS and are now stuck.

QUOTE
The only thing you can really do is to spread your risk.
too true. And manage your risk. Eggs and baskets. Again, the SMSF with only 2 assets, both properties, both now untenanted. Really!!

If mark-to-market is too uncomfortable, then only look once a month.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Oh well, with markets down, they'll inherit less.

(But in reality, boomers are a cohort slightly behind this cruel cull)
(and likely miffed their grey nomad wanderlust is curtailed)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: The Banks
nipper
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Lower dividends and no capital management look very likely in 2020 and beyond for banks, listed insurers and other financial groups for the rest of 2020

QUOTE
APRA, the financial regulator, has told banks, insurers, and other financial groups to think carefully about deciding whether dividends can be paid to shareholders over the rest of this year and into 2021.

Companies will have to be sure that paying a dividend won’t damage the company’s financial strength and when a decision is made to greenlighted a payout, it will have to be lower and dividend reinvestment plans will have to be used to lower the cash outflow wherever possible

The statement means APRA has joined the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of England and European Central Bank in telling banks and financial groups to limit or suspend dividends and capita management plans such as buybacks.

The RBNZ, Bank of England and ECB have gone as so far to tell banks not to payout dividends, while APRA’s advice is less firm, but it is obvious that it is directed at the major banks, three of which ... NAB, ANZ, and Westpac .... balanced their half years on March 31 and would now be starting to look at interim dividends.

Those banks will now either not pay dividends, or reduce current payout levels and try and encourage shareholders to take up the DRPs.

Macquarie Group balanced its 2019-20 financial year on March 31 as well and would fall into the same target group, while the Commonwealth doesn’t escape even though its 2019-20 financial year doesn’t balance until June 30 with the final dividend set in August.

Bendigo and Adelaide is a regional bank in a similar position, while Bank of Queensland, Suncorp (with Metway Bank), and insurers such as QBE, IAG and Suncorp’s brands are all in a similar target group to the bigger financial groups.

In a letter to ADIs, general insurers, life companies, and private health insurers, APRA outlined its expectations that these institutions limit discretionary capital distributions in the months ahead, including deferrals or prudent reductions in dividends.

APRA said in its letter that because banks and other financial groups play an important part in the economy, it “expects ADIs and insurers to limit discretionary capital distributions in the months ahead, to ensure that they instead use buffers and maintain capacity to continue to lend and underwrite insurance.”

“This includes prudent reductions in dividends, taking into account the uncertain outlook for the operating environment and the need to preserve capacity to prioritise these critical activities.”

“Decisions on capital management need to be forward-looking, and in the current environment of significant uncertainty in the outlook, this can be very challenging. APRA is therefore providing Boards with the following additional guidance.

“During at least the next couple of months, APRA expects that all ADIs and insurers will:
- take a forward-looking view on the need to conserve capital and use capacity to support the economy;
- use stress testing to inform these views, and give due consideration to plausible downside scenarios (periodically refreshed and updated as conditions evolve); and
-initiate prudent capital management actions in response, on a pre-emptive basis, to ensure they maintain the confidence and capacity to continue to lend and support their customers.

During this period, APRA expects that ADIs and insurers will seriously consider deferring decisions on the appropriate level of dividends until the outlook is clearer.

However, where a Board is confident that they are able to approve a dividend before this, on the basis of robust stress testing results that have been discussed with APRA, this should nevertheless be at a materially reduced level. Dividend payments should be offset to the extent possible through the use of dividend reinvestment plans and other capital management initiatives.

APRA also expects that Boards will appropriately limit executive cash bonuses, mindful of the current challenging environment.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/08/apr...s-to-dividends/
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 11 2020, 09:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

finally a bit of recognition for a story I've been in and out of, making money as the stock has gained .

MP1 went down during the Covid-19 sell off but has rebounded. Only issue, as with most data storage and connectivity stories is that growth needs funding. Now there's another capital raising going on, with retail getting a SPP, which is fine except it dilutes the non participants.... Likely to be scaled back as it has been in earlier actions. So I'm glad I've traded it on the way up, and taken profits along the way.

QUOTE
The surge in working from home as a result of the coronavirus crisis has meant Megaport ((MP1)) has benefited from an increase in connections via virtual desktop infrastructure and cloud-based applications. Telecommunications companies and data centres are typically considered critical infrastructure and remain in “safe mode” operations despite the lock-downs.

In its third quarter update the company achieved the acceleration in uptake that UBS was looking for, particularly in terms of the number of ports added and the incremental monthly recurring revenue.

Port and services sales accelerated by 11% and 12% respectively in the the third quarter. A weaker Australian dollar also provide benefits as around 60% of revenues are generated offshore. Third quarter revenue grew 10% to $15.2m.

The business is now moving closer to a maiden positive operating earnings outcome, expected in the fourth quarter of FY21. This is perceived as a major turning point by UBS and, with growth momentum accelerating, the broker’s rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

The broker recognises the current market volatility and the flight-to-quality that has underpinned the share price but considers any near-term weakness remains a good buying opportunity.

Goldman Sachs agrees there is a defensive earnings outlook relative to other companies under its coverage and Megaport is on track to achieve FY20 revenue forecasts. Still, the broker, not one of the seven monitored daily on the FNArena database, retains a Neutral rating and $10.85 target, believing the earnings and balance sheet are reflected in the current valuation.

The broker believes the company’s solution is relevant for corporates that are likely to be accelerating the migration of infrastructure to the cloud. Ord Minnett agrees and anticipates further opportunities after the crisis has passed.

Morgans points out Megaport had already employed mobile extensively as around 60% of its staff were already working remotely before the crisis. Hence, moving to 100% was relatively smooth.

Moreover, the broker notes, in February, Megaport flagged events in China and, concerned about potential delays in the supply chain, ordered networking equipment required to fill plans for 380 connections to data centres by June 2020.

The business is not yet generating cash so its balance sheet and access to capital remain the focus in the current climate. Morgans reports, at the end of February, there was more than $100m in cash which equates to around two years of funding based on the company’s last quarterly cash burn rate.

Future In The Cloud

UBS is comfortable around expectations for the shift to the cloud amid continued growth in both Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. The broker expects compound growth of 18% in 2017-21 for global public cloud business.

UBS has its own survey data which shows increasing expenditure from existing users on the cloud, along with 40-45% of respondents planning to use multiple cloud products. The broker believes an age is looming where data will dominate new technology and the company’s software-defined-network provides the path for this data to move between the cloud and lower-tiered data centres.

Morgans also expects that the outcome of the coronavirus crisis will result in existing customers consuming more services and it may well be the tipping point whereby Megaport crosses into the mainstream, helping individuals with their network connections to the cloud and making remote access available to many other dedicated point-to-point solutions.

New customers are typically medium to large organisations with the ability to embrace technological improvements but Morgans is optimistic that Megaport’s offering may become a mass market solution.

FNArena’s database has two Buy ratings and one Hold (Ord Minnett). The consensus target is $11.98, suggesting 8.0% upside to the last share price

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/07/a-b...s-for-megaport/
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 10 2020, 09:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
After such a body blow [Coronavirus], is it really possible that we dust ourselves off and move on? Or will it be that when some kind of normality returns, everything will look unfamiliar – even unsettling?

But
QUOTE
Health officials know they are caught in a catch-22. The lockdowns and health departments' detective work have slammed the brakes on transmissions.

But only a small number of Australians are probably now immune, because almost no one seems to have been infected. Success hasn't fortified society against the virus. It's just saved the hospitals from being overrun.

If no vaccine is found, or it takes a long time, and social restrictions are lifted, the virus could flare up again. Round two could be more demoralising – and therefore politically potent – because of lockdown fatigue.


Until this, we have been living in a time of transformation and rapid change. I don't imagine it will reset to what it was. I'd like to see people.less self-absorbed but that's a big challenge. It was a good article, even if it answers nothing.

Meanwhile ... how are you going? OK I trust.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 10 2020, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Bought a jigsaw puzzle the other day. Thought it could keep me busy over the next few months. Opened it up, and it said; "Suitable for 3 to 5 years"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 05:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Absolutely. Families together. Keep the kids close.... and away from the lurgy
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 05:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

common name in Spanish speaking cultures . Bit like Mohammed and variations in Arab lands
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
be finished on strong note this week..


.... but Friday, weekend, Monday; that's closed markets for 4 days !


(By the way, today is Blursday, for those losing track of time)
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 10:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

More guffaw
QUOTE
Citi has labelled Treasury Wine Estates' plans to demerge its Penfolds business into a separate ASX-listed company a "distraction", valuing the company at almost half of what other broker had valued it at.

The broker held its 'neutral' rating on the stock but reduced its price target on the stock from $12.30 to $11.05 after valuing each of the two businesses. Citi said the "New Treasury" which would worth $2.9 billion while the demerged Penfolds business would be worth $6.5 billion.

On March 5, Bank of America had valued Penfolds at between $10 billion to $13 billion as a separate entity.

"Penfolds could be appealing and trade at 25x PE but needs to prove-up French and US sourced product, in our view. New TWE is likely to be a ~14x PE stock given falling volumes," said analyst Craig Woolford. "Unfortunately, the combination of valuation for these two contrasting businesses leads to an overall value of $11.06, near the current share price."

The broker said the Penfolds business would need to prove it can successfully create a French and/or US label to extend its growth, while its operating costs may also need to rise. It said the New Treasury had a more clouded outlook however, with volumes and sales falling and low single digit EBITS growth likely.

"Loss of Penfolds is a concern for its scale economies and clout with customers," said Mr Woolford.


Sadly this smells of throwing in the towel. The good bits will disappear in a foreign takeover.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
is really hard for peoples stay at home lost most of freedom in this country , it is really hard...
You're allowed to exercise. Just keep a distance. In fact, the "Covid sway" is just that, a neat move away then back while maintaining momentum, when passing on a footpath.

In my suburb, I've never seen so many people out, some purposefully striding, some just strolling. As the old Bjelke-Petersen era joke went "Hesitating with intent to loiter." A mate in Melbourne said he's seen old codgers jogging (using that word loosely) in gear that hasn't seen the light of day in ages.

But I haven't been out of the suburb for weeks.There's a fair amount of comment that our suburban lifestyle, with low settlement densities, is a great factor in being able to control the virus. A couple of cop cars, and most states can be locked down.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 9 2020, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

The simple mathematics of social distancing

As we continue to batten the hatches in response to the coronavirus threat, we have all become familiar with the term 'flattening the curve'. Most of us have seen illustrative curves and have a grasp of the basic concept. And in particular, we accept the need to flatten the curve to control the spread of the virus, which we are told is best achieved by 'social distancing'.

But what exactly is the curve, and what is the maths behind the social distancing theory, in layman’s terms?

Let's look at some simple calculations

A key determinant of the curve is the 'basic reproduction number'. This number is usually denoted by R. It is an estimate of the average number of people who will catch the virus from a single infected person at the outbreak of an infectious disease.

It has been estimated at between 2.0 and 3.0 for COVID-19, meaning each infected person infects between two and three others in a largely-uninfected population. A figure greater than 1.0 gives rise to exponential growth in the number of infected cases, whilst a figure of 1.0 or less means the virus will quickly run out of puff.

And so to contain the virus in the absence of a vaccine, R must be significantly reduced. The corresponding figure for influenza is about 1.3, above 1.0 but not out of control, and besides, we have a vaccine to help keep it under control.

But what drives the reproduction number, R? Let’s use some simple numbers to explain.

Assume someone who unknowingly has the virus, has on average, four and a half close interactions with uninfected people in a day (that is, an average nine interactions every two days). Assume also that there is a 10% probability that each interaction will pass on the virus. That means on average, the carrier of the virus will infect,

4.5 x 10% = 0.45 people per day.

Assume also that the average duration that an infected person remains infectious is five days. Then on average,

0.45 x 5 = 2.25 people will receive the virus from the carrier.

Which is within the range of where the COVID-19 R factor is estimated to be.

The value of R in turn drives the exponential growth rate, the rate at which the number of infected cases grow. The maths is complex, but under certain modelling, we can determine the growth rate approximately from the basic reproduction number R.

Now, if someone with the virus remains infectious for five days, then the inverse must be the removal rate of the population exposed to the risk of contracting the virus. What that means is that for every person who becomes infected, after five days there is one less person in the population who can become infected, or 0.2 people per day (0.2 being the inverse of 5).

We have then 0.45 infection-transmitting contacts per day, and 0.2 contacts removed per day, leaving a growth infection rate of,

0.45 - 0.2 = 0.25 per day.


That is, a growth rate of 25% per day would see case numbers double approximately every three days, which is a rampant virus. In fact, that was approximately the exponential rate of growth we were experiencing in Australia just a couple of weeks ago.

Where does 'social distancing' come in?
Without a vaccine, the 10% probability of passing on the virus with close contact, and the five-day duration of being infectious, cannot really be altered behaviourally (though quarantining high probability carriers can reduce how long people can spread the virus).

The one parameter that we can materially manipulate is the number of interactions that people have with each other.

Suppose that with social distancing restrictions put in place, the number of close daily interactions between people has been reduced by a third to three. Then a virus carrier will infect on average,

3 x 10% = 0.3 people per day.

And the R factor has reduced to,

0.3 x 5 = 1.5, implying a less rampant virus.

And significantly, the growth rate of infections has been reduced to,

0.3 - 0.2 = 0.1 per day.

That is, 10% growth in the number of infections per day, which slows the rate at which the number of cases doubles, to 7.25 days.

In this instance, the growth curve has indeed been flattened, and that may be enough to avoid an overwhelmed hospital system. At an R of 1.5, the virus continues to spread, but not at unmanageable proportions. Since social distancing restrictions were ramped up in Australia two weeks ago, we have actually seen the growth rate fall to less than 5% per day, so the early signs of enforcing distancing strategies are encouraging.

And if close people interactions could be reduced to just two, then R becomes 1.0 (= 2 x 10% x 5) and an important threshold would be reached. The growth rate would be zero (= 0.2 - 0.2), so there would be no increase in cases per day, and the virus would quickly fizzle out.

The significance therefore, of controlling the exponential growth rate cannot be underestimated, and is the key to dampening the speed of the spread of infectious diseases.

Without social distancing, the virus would not be subdued, and the hospital system would not cope. Infections would still taper off at some point, as the virus runs out of population to infect, but not before damage to the health system has been incurred.

It is so important therefore, that we adhere to the government’s restrictions on socialising, with the health and economic costs of the virus already substantial, running into trillions of dollars globally.

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/the-simple-ma...65ac2c-83781601
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 8 2020, 02:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

it moved up and is back where it was a year ago.
non-invasive medical imaging software. .... but may be underperforming from lack of referrals due to reduced elective interventions
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Covis-19 lockdown in India... how does an economy with 80% of the workforce in day labour function, when the curtain comes down.

QUOTE
India has some 7,500 big wholesale farm markets and another 25,000 small weekly markets. "Some of them have begun reopening and they are trying to figure out how to operate and transport produce and maintain social distancing," says Dr Krishnamurthy.

.... the winter crop has been bountiful. India has a robust food stockpile - some 60 million tonnes of food grains - and the world's largest state-run food distribution programme. Food shortages are unlikely. But the challenges are in supporting farmers, sharecroppers and labourers until things return to normal; getting food to the poor and securing the harvest for the next season.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52176564
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 06:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I suspect the 'senior banker' was talking somewhat tongue in cheek; in his (I assume) eyes, the industry funds ate their lunch, and this is a bit of mischievous nose rubbing.

More seriously, the liquidity issue is a worry if, as could be the case, many thousands want to take out the $10,000 now and a similar amount next FY. Most of these people need it.

The past may be another country but the future is a set of unknowns.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Reserve Bank of Australia has left the nation's official cash rate on hold at the historic-low level of 0.25 per cent.

After an extraordinary March period – which included an emergency out-of-cycle rate cut to 0.25 per cent – RBA economists decided current quantitative easing measures were being effective.

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe in his monetary statement said the virus is as much an economic crisis as it is a health crisis.

"The coronavirus remains first and foremost a very major public health issue, but it is also having very significant effects on economies and financial systems around the world," wrote Mr Lowe. "Many countries are expected to experience large economic contractions as a consequence of the public health response. Large increases in unemployment are also expected.

"Once the virus is contained, a recovery in the global economy is expected, with the recovery supported by both the large fiscal packages and the significant easing in monetary policy that has taken place".


And so say all of us
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 03:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

One beneficiary of vol.

QUOTE
The ASX facilitated $12 billion in cash equities trades a day in March, which was two-times the daily average in March last year, and 57 per cent higher than the prior peak. That's according to Citi analysts, who provided some context around the ASX's monthly trading data released on Monday.

The $12 billion a day average easily eclipsed prior peaks in 2007, and even prompted the ASX and ASIC to ask brokers to scale back client trading.

The huge spike in trading was prompted by market volatility, as investors reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic and a sharp fall in the oil price.


And Chi-ex as well
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 01:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Chinese for lunch? .... they look like chopsticks !
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Covid-19 response
QUOTE
Clinical trials of unbranded hyperimmune serum could begin ­“within months”, CSL chief scientific ­officer Andrew Cuthbertson said. An effective vaccine able to protect the entire population takes at least 12 months to ­develop.

Professor Cuthbertson said well-designed trials would guide decisions about who would be first in the queue for serum treatment, which is based on “borrowing” the antibodies of patients whose immune systems have fought off the viral illness.

“Probably people who are very high risk, maybe people who are infected and getting worse and heading for the ­intensive care unit, possibly in the ICU. “It could also be used as a preventative treatment if someone coughed right into the face of a health worker.”

Debate on priorities

He said priorities for eligibility in trials and for treatment would involve “great debate”.

“It’s a matter of how do we best use these precious initial vials of this medicine, because we won’t be able to make enough to protect the entire population — you need a vaccine to do that.”

The global pooling of expertise and resources for the manufacture of the hyperimmune treatment was announced on Monday night, with CSL subsidiary CSL Behring and Takeda joined by the German-headquartered Biotest, LFB (France), Octapharma (Switzerland) and Bio Products Laboratory (Britain).

The humanitarian alliance between commercial rivals is open to other firms and plans to work with governments.

“Unprecedented times call for bold moves,” said Julie Kim, president of Takeda’s Plasma-Derived Therapies Business Unit.

Professor Cuthbertson said he expected clinical trials in the northern hemisphere and Australia could start in parallel, with sharing of data and insights speeding up progress.

He said local trials might require 100 to 500 donors, and would require the development of tests enabling identification of the best donors and the potency of antibodies against the illness.

CSL was in talks with the federal Health Department, regulator Therapeutic Goods Administration, research partners including the Melbourne-based Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunology, and plasma collection agency the Australian Red Cross Lifeblood to get trials on foot as soon as possible.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 7 2020, 12:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

What goes around, comes around
QUOTE
One senior banker points out that one way in which cash-strapped super funds can solve their short-term liquidity problems would be to borrow funds from the banks, using their funds' assets as security.

"A lot of super funds are happy to lend out their shares to short-sellers", he says. "This is just the other side of the equation."

[Unisuper, which has $85 billion in funds under management, called for an industrywide clampdown on short-selling last month, but this was resisted by other large super funds.]

The banker says any liquidity pressures are likely to be temporary because super funds will continue to see cash inflows from people who remain in employment, and who'll continue to make their regular super contributions....

A few Super funds with large allocations to unlisted assets, such as property, infrastructure and even venture capital, PE, have been rather embarrassed by liquidity . Tide's out, and unclad
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 06:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Anything geared gets hit more. REITs carry debt, and the higher the LVR the better the returns ... until they aren't.

Another yield trap. Saw it in GFC and not surprised it's happened. Again..
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 06:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I was reading about Airbnb. A couple of anecdotes.
- mate in Tassie says Hobart (pop. 240,000) real estate has U turned; the hot mainland money looking for yield has lost both the overseas students and the tourist/ backpacker influx.
- a family member, sth coast beach side, getting 25% of all cancelled booking until 30 Apr.
- saw a blog on Canada; was getting $120 a night, going rate now about $30
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

general FOMO , stage 1?

QUOTE
At the start of the crisis, high frequency investment crowd (risk-parity, CTAs, hedge funds etc) got out and many went short.

When the governments and central banks unleashed shock and awe they covered their shorts and the market went up like a rocket.

What happens next will be driven by the more traditional long-only investment community and by the institutional and retail clients that they manage money for.

Will they hold on, buckle down and continue to say that this is a once in a generation opportunity to buy equities?

And if so where will they get the money from?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 11:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961


QUOTE
"..Because of the rain at the start of the year, we've done more spraying with our business in the last two months than in the last four years — it's a big difference." "The biggest issue for ag at the moment is how hard it can be to find weedkiller," Ms Coupe said. "I don't think the suppliers of glyphosate in Australia anticipated that the entire eastern seaboard would have a spray round and use up all the spray in the country." "Now we've got places that need spraying and they can't get chemicals, and supplies are hard to get as well.". .
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020...tural...o-life/12106688


Nufarm, anyone?
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 6 2020, 11:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I saw an article for the polloi along the lines this is vindication of Einstein's general theory, in that the c bit of E = mc2 was a constant, or that the speed of light doesn't change. Some of the newer theories were challenging this (whipper-snappers, the lot of them).
I think.
(trying to find the article)

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 5 2020, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Catching 'em early is really important in exponential cases. 2 to the power of 3 is 8 but 8 to the power of 3 is 512. 8 infected people is manageable but 512 is starting to become a problem. Even if one asymptomatic carrier infected someone else who also became an asymptomatic carrier we are not talking exponential rates but geometric rates. ....


Aha, yes, the ol' Grains of rice on a Chessboard challenge.....
If someone gave you a chessboard (which has 64 squares on it) and asked you to put one grain of rice on the first square, two grains of rice on the second square, four grains of rice on the third, eight grains on the fourth, and so on, how many grains of rice would end up on the 64th square?

It sounds like an easy question ... it's simply asking you to double the number of rice grains from one square to the next, from 1 grain to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 to 32 to 64, and so on, until the 64th square.

What's the answer? You'd need 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice for the 64th square. That's nine quintillion, two hundred and twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred and seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, etc, grains.

And the amount of rice you'd need to cover the entire board, from squares 1 to 64, would be 18.4 quintillion grains.

.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-05/coronavirus-exponential-growth-explained-by-rice-on-a-chessboard/12122214
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 4 2020, 09:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Hiding in full sight? a positive article that looks dispassionately at CUV

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/04/01/the...up-in-the-rout/

The Business Models holding up in the Rout
QUOTE
CLINUVEL
The drug developer has achieved what the world wants a COVID-19 vaccine maker to do: get a treatment to market ahead of the expected timeline.

In Clinuvel’s case it’s a treatment for a rare light intolerance condition called EPP. The drug, Scenesse, was ticked off by the US Food & Drug Administration last October. The company expected to be selling the drug in the US by the end of calendar 2020, but as it happens the first commercial patients .... those with private health insurance ... will be dosed in April.

Clinuvel chief Philippe Wolgen attributes the swift progress to the company’s previous legwork in negotiating with the insurers. Post approval, the insurers’ pharmacy benefit managers had the paperwork in the bottom drawer.

About 80% of the 4000 EPP sufferers in the US are covered by private insurance. The next step is to seek Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement for the remainder. Dr Wolgen won’t be drawn on how many patients are likely to avail of the treatment, given some may be reluctant to go near a hospital while COVID-19 rages.

But the life changing nature of Scenesse means that most will try to access the drug, having endured a life of tissue damage and severe pain when exposed to even weak sunlight.

Dr Wolgen is also coy about the likely price of the drug but it’s not hard to work it out. To avoid accusations of price gouging, the company plans to maintain consistent pricing globally and in Europe the drug costs €55,000-85,000 ($US62, 000-96,000) a year (depending on the number of injections required).

Dr Wolgen said some investors had urged the company to spend more research and development to expedite development, but the board decided to preserve the cash (currently $58m) for a rainy day. The company spent about $185m developing Scenesse, which compares with $400m-plus for a typical drug that gets to market (and the majority of them don’t).

Amazingly for a biotech, Clinuvel is profitable from initial sales in Europe, where Scenesse was approved in 2014. In the 2018-19 the company reported a net profit of $18m on revenue of $18m ...and even dispensed a 2.5c a share dividend.

As always for a drug company, the US is the main prize. Even though EPP is a tiny ‘orphan’ market, the company stands to generate more than $US300m ($500million) if it reaches just half the US patient market.

The company is currently worth around $900m, having retreated from a peak value of $2.2bn after the US approval.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 3 2020, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Thanks Roger . Why don't you post that in the 'pollution' thread?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Suddenly it's not a dangerous substance
QUOTE
... Walgett resident Enid Coupe said the rain had saved her family business from the brink of collapse. She and her husband, Hunter, have a spraying business and also run a small farm in Walgett in north-west NSW.

Ms Coupe says the last quarter's rain came just in time, after almost a decade of extremely difficult conditions for the entire region.

"We've struggled from month to month for the last eight years," she said. "It's nice to actually have a bit of solid work to get some money in our back accounts for a little while.

"Because of the rain at the start of the year, we've done more spraying with our business in the last two months than in the last four years — it's a big difference."

Ms Coupe said "inches" of follow up rain were still needed for farmers to re-establish a full soil profile after such a long dry period. Supply shortages, however, could curb efforts to make the most of last quarter's rainfall.

"The biggest issue for ag at the moment is how hard it can be to find weedkiller," Ms Coupe said. "I don't think the suppliers of glyphosate in Australia anticipated that the entire eastern seaboard would have a spray round and use up all the spray in the country.

"Now we've got places that need spraying and they can't get chemicals, and supplies are hard to get as well.". .


https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-02/n...o-life/12106688
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 01:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Can usually cope with the first wave, it's the second one, when still winded, that can do harm.

https://mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.o...s-idUSL4N2BM042
QUOTE
China's ports and shipping firms are bracing for a second wave of supply chain disruptions that may be deeper and more prolonged than during the country's coronavirus lockdown as the global spread of the virus chokes off international demand....
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 2 2020, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

From being an optimist 11 days ago,
QUOTE
Given the price drops and selling we've seen so far, I believe this is a good time to invest, although of course it may prove not (to) have been the best time. No one can argue that you should spend all your money today ... but equally, no one can argue that you shouldn't spend any. The more you want to garner potential gains and don't mind mark-to-market losses, the more you should invest here."
Howard Marks has gone bearish again. A summary and link to full paper can be found here.

https://www.firstlinks.com.au

His conclusion:
QUOTE
In the Global Financial Crisis, I worried about a downward cascade of financial news, and about the implications for the economy of serial bankruptcies among financial institutions. But everyday life was unchanged from what it had been, and there was no obvious threat to life and limb.

Today the range of negative outcomes seems much wider, as described above. Social isolation, disease and death, economic contraction, enormous reliance on government action, and uncertainty about the long-term effects are all with us, and the main questions surround how far they will go.

Nevertheless, the market prices of assets have responded to the events and outlook (in a very micro sense, I feel last week’s bounce reflected too much optimism, but that’s me). I would say assets were priced fairly on Friday for the optimistic case but didn’t give enough scope for the possibility of worsening news. Thus my reaction to all the above is to expect asset prices to decline. You may or may not feel there’s still time to increase defensiveness ahead of potentially negative developments. But the most important thing is to be ready to respond to and take advantage of declines."

Howard Marks is Co-founder and Co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, the largest investor in distressed securities worldwide.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 06:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Multi factor, evolving. Not fully understood. The asymptomatic issue is, I tend to agree, a big one.

No-one and no country has a clear way through to the end.

New FT graphs up https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

from April last year
QUOTE
Idronoxil Confirmed as New Immuno-Oncology Drug

  • New class of immuno-oncology drug identified
  • Activator of NK cells and CD4+ immune cells
  • Potential to boost function of current immuno-oncology drugs.

SYDNEY, April 16, 2019: Noxopharm (ASX: NOX) releases data from the first series of pre-clinical studies confirming that idronoxil (IDX), the active ingredient in the Company's anti-cancer drug candidate, Veyonda®, activates the immune system. The studies confirm that IDX activates cells associated with both the innate and adaptive immune systems, increasing functional natural killer (NK) cells and CD4+ (T-helper) cell numbers. The studies involving human cell and animal test systems are part of a coordinated collaboration between the Company and a number of prominent universities and research institutes in Australia and overseas.

and today:
QUOTE
NOX has an announcement that their drug candidate idronoxil, being used in other investigations, has some potential in the Covid-19 pandemic, in that it may block the inflammatory progress of the cytokine storm/ cascade that is causing tissue damage and the need for progressively more intense hospitalisation, to ICUs.

This is a potential third path, they claim; other than
1.development of vaccine (month or years away)
2. block viral reproduction once infection gas occurred (hydroxychloroquine, etc)


Needs to be investigated, of course. NOX has put in provisional patents and looking for funding and clinical trials.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 10:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

good refresh, Mick
and Bob Dylan has a brooding powerful 17 minute Murder Most Foul reflection on JFK and many many other things. Can be found on the link

http://www.openculture.com/2020/03/bob-dyl...assination.html
QUOTE
What is he up to in this track? Is "Murder Most Foul" a summation of Dylan's career? Dylanologists will be puzzling it out for years. But the last line of his Twitter announcement sure sounds like a cryptic farewell wrapped in a warning: “Stay safe,” Dylan writes, “stay observant, and may God be with you.”

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Read and heed
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/...ting-angry.html

QUOTE
I regard the current course of English speaking democracies (other than New Zealand) as mass murder by the political elite. I think history will regard it that way too

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Apr 1 2020, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

You can now buy a barrel of Western Canadian Select Crude Oil for less than a beer!


Last trade: $3.90 not sure $C or $US. - probably the latter. Does it matter?
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 08:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Because of the speed of the falls (we'll ignore the sharp but unconvincing rallies), the Market has no ability to factor in widespread dividend cuts and deeply discounted capital raisings, though it's highly likely these will come thick and fast in coming months after the unprecedented mass withdrawal of corporate earnings guidance in recent weeks.

With so much uncertainty about the corporate earnings outlook, any faith in current downgrades of the consensus earnings per share estimates (-8%) and consensus dividend per share estimates (-7%) are rearview mirror fantasies.

Even more so, the consensus-based price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 times and dividend yield of 5.1 per cent (which are near their long-term averages) are illusory.

Much more whipsawing to come.... try PEs of 8 or 9 as in the GFC
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 07:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

There's a bit of a tug of war going on. I see 10+% changes on stocks on my watchlist (run about 100 at any one time, though it's a watch and learn not watch and act list in the most part).

These extreme ranges are often on no news, and can be for minnows right through to large caps. Another feature has been big jumps or drops at open, and large / huge volumes at close 4:10 matchings:- Some say these are the professionals, I think it's just "those mandated to manage others' money".

Volatility will continue. Interesting times.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

MMT .... Fasten seatbelts, because we're going to find out. What's going to go up faster than everything else that's going down?

But first, gotta throw this little big we seem to have picked up.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 31 2020, 09:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
The most puzzling downgrade came on Thursday when Northern Star said the coronavirus had hampered gold production in the three months to March 31 by between 10 per cent and 15 per cent.

Travel restrictions to slow the spread of the virus were not enforced in Northern Star's operating jurisdictions – Alaska and Western Australia – until March 25, but Northern Star said it had started voluntarily changing rosters and reducing the size of its teams to adapt to the virus in mid-February.

Northern Star said those changes, which were not disclosed to the market at the company's half-year results in early February nor during its presentation at the BMO conference in late February, had made it harder to move people to its mines.

Northern Star insisted those measures were entirely responsible for gold production being between 10 per cent and 15 per cent lower than expected in the March quarter.
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 06:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

iWesfsrmers s selling a $1.1 billion stake in supermarkets group Coles in a trade being handled by UBS and Goldman Sachs on Monday night, sources told Street Talk.

The brokers bought the stake at $15.39 a share after market on Monday and were seeking institutional buyers to take the stock.

The deal was at an 8.5 per cent discount to the last close and represented 69.4 million shares or 5.2 per cent of Coles' equity on issue.

- now holding under 10% ...., give up the director seat. Keeping 50% of Flybuys
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 05:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Yeah, not having a go, mate.

The country is bringing forward outlays. It will be recouped over time, from the only ultimate source. US

Sometimes a bit of tough love averts greater catastrophes.
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
make good profits these days


as long as you pay your taxes. Now and in the future
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Ansell Chief executive Magnus Nicolin said the company was ''experiencing very strong demand'' for its AlphaTec hand and body protection products, which provide protection against infective agents.

The group's single-use examination gloves sold under the Microflex and TouchNTuff brands, used by medical professionals, have also had ''very high demand.

- & maintained guidance
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn has warned of a 10 per cent contraction in the economy in the March quarter, as Australia weathers a “substantial demand shock” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mr Comyn said he had revised down his expectations from a week ago, when he expected a 5 per cent or 6 per cent slump in output, given the notable decline the nation’s largest retail bank was seeing in transaction data.

“There is no question there is going to be a substantial demand shock, and you’ve seen that particularly across a number of different sectors,” he told a live-streamed event on Monday
(today)

- definitely no point in using rearview mirror numbers that may come out this week, though Chinese PMI may be interesting in a curious way.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

One of the better Covid-19 sing-alongs. Done to Bohemian Rhapsody, and with a coherent and sensible message... (Just Stay Inside)

https://youtu.be/lr_tEdQvFcc
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 30 2020, 06:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
The disproportionate impact of the virus on Europe’s south has revived the European Union’s north-south divide rivalry, with Italy and Spain pleading for European Union help.

“It is the most difficult moment for the EU since its foundation, and it has to be ready to rise to the challenge,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said in a televised address Saturday night.

Mr Sanchez warned them that a lack of solidarity to share the enormous financial burden of the health crisis and the imminent economic slowdown will put the future of the bloc in danger.

“Europe must provide a united social and economic response. We must have evidence that Europe listens and that Europe takes action.”

There has been some European solidarity - the EU has pledged billions in aid while Germany has taken some patients from Italy and France.

However, critics say that not nearly enough as China and Russia have made a point of sending medical aid to Italy, making some Italians question where their allegiances should lie. Cuba and Albania have sent medical teams too.


(Well done Boris)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

nipper
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 02:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
....supply disruptions were announced from a slew of mines along with the Perth Mint, Australia’s official bullion-making operation, and South Africa’s Rand Refinery, the world’s largest metals processing outfit.

That appeared to blow out the “delivery risk premium” as the spread between spot gold and the front-month futures contract ballooned in the latter’s favo(u)r

from The Perth Mint:
BULLION - LIMITED STOCK AVAILABLE
Due to overwhelming demand for our products during this time we are out of stock of many items and some will be subject to considerable delays before they become available again.
https://www.perthmint.com/covid19.aspx

- it's time to worry when the gold market seizes up. Equities, pshaw; credit & Bond markets; throw cash at it; but GOLD!!
  Forum: Macro Factors

nipper
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

I thought medication delivery was an 'essential service' and supplies still get through? Maybe she just forgot to take hers ? (again?)
  Forum: By Share Code

nipper
Posted on: Mar 29 2020, 12:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 6,961

QUOTE
Under water reforms, the environment and permanent crops, such as almonds, grapes and citrus, get water allocated before annual crops such as rice, cotton and cereals.


QUOTE
"One of the reasons the irrigation community supported the reform process was the concept of property rights, transparency of process and a framework of water entitlements that give the sector confidence to invest to world's best practise," [a spokesman for rice growers] said. "Some of those have been delivered and some have demonstrably not been delivered."

"The government now holds 28 per cent of all the allocations in the Basin, so they are enormous users, and I believe they have the ability to correct the situation. "There are a number of big reports on water reform policy due in the coming months. They include reviews of the water market, water sharing, socio-economic impacts and water for the environment.

New Minister for Water, Keith Pitt, said the reports would provide important insights into water reform and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. "I am committed to ensuring the Government acts on their findings and that the time for reviews is coming to an end," Mr Pitt said. "Irrigated agriculture underpins the Basin economy. The Government will work with the industry through these challenging times and ensure it is well-placed to respond when we are through the current health crisis."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-29/rice...verina/12094436
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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