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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: May 6 2021, 09:14 AM
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, hopes are high heading into this week’s NFP Report, with potential to see over 1,000,000 net new jobs for the first time in eight months as the country gradually opens up amidst widespread vaccine distribution. In addition to the strong headline jobs reading, economists are also looking for the unemployment rate to tick down to 5.8% and average hourly earnings to come in flat month-over-month:

NFP forecast

As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report:

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 58.8, up a point and a half from last month’s 57.2 reading.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component printed at 55.1, down more than 4% from last month’s 59.6 reading.
The ADP Employment report came in at 742K net new jobs, an improvement over last month’s upwardly-revised 565K reading, though still below the 872K reading expected.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to 612K, down sharply from 719k last month.

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a gyration for SPX tonight


asx200 going to pop up again at our cash market again?? unsure.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: May 5 2021, 11:43 AM
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finally asx200 hit through 7100,
now it aim at all time high 7220ish, but i can't see it clearer as market start to prepare for the rate rise sooner.

have to just trade the way . my bet is asx200 gonna over come all time high!! it's just me ---biased!! tongue.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 30 2021, 09:09 AM
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ASX 200 Market Internals:
We’re expecting a soft open looking at futures markets. Although the ASX 200 found resistance at the April high anyway, so the bias is bearish early on in the session. However, PMI data is released for Japan, China and Australia over the next few hours, so we could be in for some volatility around current levels to be on for a break either way, which makes 7094 – 7100 a pivotal zone today (and potentially next week).
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still bullish like me.! lmaosmiley.gif

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SPX had scary start, but it did well to rallied back above 4200----i guess it is end of the month thing.



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 29 2021, 10:16 AM
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The Fed left policy unchanged as widely expected, although added that inflation has risen due to “transitory factors” such as the “basing effect”. This basically means the fed will continue to look past inflation overshoots, so there will be no change of policy.

The S&P 500 printed a new intraday record high but failed to hold onto earlier gains, closing the day with a bearish Rikshaw Man Doji pattern (on a closing basis, the index has effectively closed flat for the past three days). The Nasdaq 100 fell to a four-day low but found support at its 10-day eMA. The Dow Jones fell to a three-day low but ultimately remains rangebound between 33,678 – 34,256. Its hard to build a bear case, there is also a hesitancy to break higher imminently on Wall Street.

Yesterday’s weak CPI print helped send the ASX 200 to a two-day high, and Tuesday’s bullish hammer reaffirmed support at 7,000 which suggests a swing low is in place. So, whilst our bias remains bullish above 7,000, we need to see a break above 7,100 to confirm trend resumption.

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ASX200 will the price over come 7100 or just make a double top??? unsure.gif
i for one think it will overcome 7100 and hit all time high within a week!! it's just me!! lmaosmiley.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 28 2021, 10:19 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 28 2021, 10:16 AM

The ASX 200 printed a large bearish pinbar last week, and prices have remained soft for the past three sessions. Whilst there was a mild recovery yesterday, they remain beneath 7036 resistance which could prove to ab a pivotal level this session.
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DYOR.

 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 28 2021, 10:16 AM
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The SPX continues to make marginal new highs, but so far, the index has been unable to punch through the top of a tight two-week trading range. This has defined the price action for the second half of April.



2

That’s not a negative, of course; in fact, the bobbing and weaving has been needed to take at least a little bit of pressure off some of the more stretched indicators.

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another solid day for SPX LAST NIGHT.

asx200 seems in the selling mode since last friday. thought it would follow SPX go a lot higher by now. might be strong AUD did hold index back?? unsure.gif



 


early birds
post Posted: Apr 27 2021, 12:16 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 27 2021, 09:38 AM

i for one think it will test that 7100ish again today!! imho though!!

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weirdsmiley.gif , it went opposite to my " prediction". test 7000 and bounced so far. bought few weighing stocks see how it goes !!
asx200 index long has been stopped out!! might go long again if it can close above 7025 by end of cash market!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 27 2021, 09:38 AM
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So far in 2021, seasonality has worked well. A trading high was notched in February; a trading low was etched in March and so far, April has been decidedly higher, which all has lined up with the 20 year “average” intra-month movement.



2

Another trend that we’ve seen since last June that is NOT talked about as much is the appearance of late month weakness. While this hasn’t happened every month, it’s something to monitor, as some of those weak periods have resembled topping patterns, as well.



3
Even as the uptrend has persisted in 2021, there have been a few scares (late January, February and March). We wouldn’t exactly label last week’s digestion as a “scare,” but it was the first slowdown we’ve seen since the March lows.



4
Now, if/when a bigger drawdown happens again soon, let’s remember how the prior tops played out… they didn’t. The downside break attempts were temporary, which only resulted in bear traps – and ultimately new highs yet again.



5

Among others, the R2k IWM ETF and the Small Cap Growth IWO ETF both punched through two month downtrend lines last week. Those were necessary FIRST steps.



6

The US Dollar is holding where and when it needs to – near a three-month uptrend line. Seeing how it does if/when it reencounters the 50 Day MA near 91.66 will be telling.

The 10 Year Yield is bouncing near the 50 Day MA and challenging an important multi-week downtrend line.



9

Uranium is trying to bounce near its 50 Day MA for the third time this year. Prior attempts led to strong multi-week rallies.

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another solid day for SPX last night session. the bulls in USA seems unstoppable .

asx200 future still weak from yesterday, not sure why it has not follow the US market?? unsure.gif
i for one think it will test that 7100ish again today!! imho though!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 23 2021, 10:07 AM
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ASX, we doubt US tax news will weigh on it much today. Yesterday, the ASX 200 broke above Wednesday’s hammer high from the get-go, which further suggests the ‘buying tail’ above 6900 has conviction. Barring a sudden shift in sentiment (locally or globally), the bias remains for a run for, and beyond, 7100. However, also take note that like its European counterparts, the ASX 200 is also forming a large bearish hammer, so it would need to close convincingly above this week’s highs to help eradicate that technical warning next week. Ultimately, today’s bias remains bullish above yesterday’s low.

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it is Friday, traders will close their positions [long or short].

SPX looked bearish -----at least for a short term pull back?? unsure.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 22 2021, 10:40 AM
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ASX 200 was on track for its worst close in two month’s yesterday, dragged down by technology and energy stocks. Yet it managed to recoup losses in the second half of the session to close just -0.3% down for the day, leaving a bullish hammer in its wake. Given the positive lead from Wall Street overnight and recovery on the ASX 200, we could be in for less severe start to today’s session.

Whilst the bullish hammer is larger than we’d like, there are key levels nearby which may help splice it up into a more manageable size. Note the lower wick (buying tail) pushed prices back above the 20-day eMA, prior record high and 6957 swing low, which provides a potential support zone between 6938 – 6957. It also suggests strong buying demand above 6900.

A break above 7018 confirms yesterday’s bullish hammer.
Our bias remains bullish above the 6938 – 6957 support zone.
The initial target is 7100, followed by the previous record high (just below 7200).

====================
lot of TA stuff. bullish price action as yesterday, it could carry asx200 to all time high soon enough imho.



 
 


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