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LIM, LIONORE MINING INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
jojosydney
post Posted: May 27 2007, 10:07 PM
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In reply to: Visionary on Sunday 27/05/07 07:54pm

Hi visionary,

Well I hope you will still get some more out of LIM, not impossible imho and I would have been holding myself if it was not for the ASX delisting.

The directors of LIM have a lot to answer for and I find a total disregard for the Australian shareholders that even now in the middle of the takeover they still go ahead with the delisting.

But thanks to the market forces I can not complain and got more then the A$30 per share that I always hoped to get from LIM.

So Visionary lets hope that the same market forces will give you another few dollars, I will keep watching with interest.

And it was my pleasure having you on board and keep the drinks cold for the day our roads cross again.....lol

Good luck

jojo

 
Visionary
post Posted: May 27 2007, 07:54 PM
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In reply to: jojosydney on Friday 25/05/07 11:15am

Thanks jojo,

All of my LIM positions are on CFD contracts on the ASX, TSX & LSE exchanges. I too got out of my smaller position on the ASX CFDs on Friday (after I read your post) as I'm not sure how the CFD provider would treat the transition arrangements, so rather than the hassle I sold out and tried to pick up the same quantity on the TSX Friday night session - no luck though as the price didn't retreat any to my pickup point. I'll try again on Monday evening.

Analysts are mixed in their opinions of counter offers from Xstrata but at an 80c premium with the ride so far I'm still willing to chance another round.

Good on you and thanks again jojo, I certainly owe you a drink or two as this run so far on LIM has gone a long long way towards my retirement from full time work.

Regards,
Visionary

 
jojosydney
post Posted: May 25 2007, 11:15 AM
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QUOTE (Visionary @ Wednesday 23/05/07 06:23pm)

Hi visionary,

I have today sold my LIM holdings as there are just to many bargains popping up in the ASX.
The thought of not being able to trade my LIM on the ASX after monday makes me nervous and to see my funds being tight up when other good bargains arise would be irresponisble in this scenario.

I know your situation is different since you are already trading on the TSX and can easily transfer your holdings.
Imho I believe that you still have upside in LIM, as still could go up to the C$30 mark.

I wish you good luck and hope, and expect, that you will get some more profits out of them.

jojo

 
Visionary
post Posted: May 23 2007, 06:23 PM
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In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 23/05/07 05:33pm

jojo,

A welcome announcement - another bottle of the fine stuff to be removed from the world tonight, I'm glad plonk is a renewable resource!!!!!!!!! At least our current profits are now locked in - roar roar%&*^#@#$%^$%#

The small increment probably means Norilsk are trying to put the 'brakes on' the bidding war and their probably good for another lift in the bid price if Xstrata comes back with C$28 or C$29. This scenario will auger well for us - I'm glad you pulled your sell order the other day.

The only problem is nickel has come off nearly $2 in the last 24 hrs. The chinese announcement about substituting chromium for nickel has spooked a few traders. I don't think its a realistic metallurgical material and the chinese are trying to cut corners that wont past the longevity test.

Cheers,
Visionary

 
jojosydney
post Posted: May 23 2007, 05:33 PM
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In reply to: jojosydney on Wednesday 23/05/07 03:45pm

Hi visionary,

Here is the bid C$27.50 now we have to get the C$30 from Xstrata...

jojo


May 23, 2007 2:30 AM ETNorilsk Nickel Increases its Offer for LionOre to Cdn$27.50 per Shareadvertisement

Related information E-mail this article Print-friendly version Discuss this articleStocks mentioned in this articleJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (ADR) (NILSY) Stock Quote, Chart, News
All PR Newswire NewsMOSCOW, Russian Federation and TORONTO, May 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel ("Norilsk Nickel" or the "Company") announced today that it will increase its offer to purchase all of the outstanding common shares of LionOre Mining International Ltd. ("LionOre") (Toronto Stock Exchange and Australian Securities Exchange symbol: "LIM"; London Stock Exchange symbol: "LOR"; Botswana Stock Exchange symbol: "LIONORE") to Cdn$27.50 per common share. Norilsk Nickel expects to mail the Notice of Variation of its offer to LionOre shareholders on or about May 24, 2007. The offer will be open until 8:00pm (Toronto time) on Monday, June 18, 2007, unless extended or withdrawn.

The cash offer represents an increase of Cdn$6.00 per common share over Norilsk Nickel's previous offer of Cdn$21.50 per common share, and a premium of 10% over the Cdn$25.00 price per share offered by Xstrata plc ("Xstrata") in its increased bid for LionOre. Assuming that all common shares are tendered, Norilsk Nickel's increased offer represents total cash consideration of approximately Cdn$6.8 billion, and provides around Cdn$620 million more cash to LionOre shareholders than the Xstrata offer.

Recent investing newsARM Holdings Holds Analyst and Investor DayKentucky Gov Wins 2nd Term NominationSenate to Debate Immigration MeasureNew York's yellow taxis to go greenUS 'impatient' at pace of China talks

 
jojosydney
post Posted: May 23 2007, 03:45 PM
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In reply to: jojosydney on Tuesday 22/05/07 10:15pm

Hi visionary,

Here it is we will be on the money , the offer is on the way from norilsk and our waiting will be rewarded.

Time for another celebration I believe......

jojo biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

UPDATE 1-Norilsk board votes to raise LionOre offer -report
Wed May 23, 2007 1:05AM EDT
Market View
GMKN (Mining & Metallurgical Co Norilsk Nickel)
Last: $192.80
Change: -1.70 (-0.87%)
Revenue (ttm): 185 530,1р.M
EPS: 293.33
Market Cap: 833 761,10р.M
Time: 8:00pm ET



Stock Details
Company Profile
Analyst Research

Company News
Norilsk board votes to raise LionOre offer -report
UPDATE 2-Norilsk examines options on LionOre bid
Canadian dollar rises on M&A flows as data loom
Norilsk bids C$5.3 bln for Canada's Lionore
UPDATE 1-Norilsk revises up 2007 nickel output
At the Helm:
Denis Morozov
Member of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer

Salary: -
Bonus: -
Age: 34


Mr. Morozov worked for Ingosstrakh Insurance Company OAO from 1992 to 1994. From 1994 to 1998, he worked for the joint stock commercial bank Alfa-Bank... Full Bio

Full Management Team
Insider Trading Email This Article | Print This Article | Reprints[-] Text [+] (Adds background, detail after paragraph 3)

MOSCOW, May 23 (Reuters) - The board of Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM: Quote, Profile, Research has voted to raise its offer for Canadian miner LionOre (LIM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Vedomosti newspaper reported on Wednesday, citing an unnamed source close to the Russian nickel producer.

Norilsk said last week it would decide whether to continue the chase for LionOre after London-listed Xstrata Ltd. (XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research raised its offer for LionOre, the world's 10th-largest nickel producer.

Xstrata offered C$6.2 billion ($5.6 billion), trumping a bid of C$5.3 billion ($4.8 billion) made by Norilsk on May 3. But the Xstrata offer also included a break fee of C$305 million payable to Xstrata if LionOre accepted a rival bid.

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Vedomosti said the board voted 8-1 in favour of a revised offer, with only billionaire co-owner Mikhail Prokhorov, who is selling his share to partner Vladimir Potanin, voting against. Its source declined to give the size of the new bid.

A Norilsk Nickel spokesman contacted by Reuters declined to comment on the report.

Norilsk, which mines a fifth of the world's nickel and is the world's largest palladium miner, has a market capitalisation of $36.1 billion.

It would become the world's first 300,000-tonne-plus producer of nickel should it acquire LionOre, whose 2007 forecast output of 40,000 tonnes is expected to double by 2012.


© Reuters 2007. All rights reserved.

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jojosydney
post Posted: May 22 2007, 10:15 PM
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In reply to: jojosydney on Monday 21/05/07 09:52pm

Hi Visionary,

I appreciate your thoughts and feel much the same right now.

Last night I did put a sell order in for my LIM holding and I was thinking about if this morning and pulled it.

My thoughs are as follows, we are in the middle of a takeover battle between two companies who really want LIM.

We have the Nickel price at an all time high and the LME stocks extremely low and not much in big new projects untill end 2008 if all goes well.

So we could not wish for a better scenario to see a premium for LIM emerging.
Norilsk is cashed up and do not want to loose face in their first real big takeover of a western mining company.

And Xstrata, after losing WMR do not want to lose LIM as being the last jewel in Nickel available on the market.

My instinct tell me we get the C$30, but how we are going to get there could be a suprise.

BHP is always good in coming in at the last minute.

time will tell and any day now could be the day.

good luck and yes I will be holding this one out till the end.

jojo



 
Visionary
post Posted: May 22 2007, 08:24 PM
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In reply to: jojosydney on Monday 21/05/07 09:52pm

Hi there jojo,

Its all very interesting but Xstrata can relax a bit and let Norilsk plan its strategy before they need to readjust.

The killer is the C$1.40 break fee. If Norilsk bid C$28 its cost to them is effectively C$29.40. Xstrata needs only to match the C$28 and it becomes the preferred bidder. So in that sense Norilsk are 'always playing catchup'. I don't think Norilsk if they decide to bid again can afford to go in at C$28, they really need a 'killer bid' at this stage and that as you say is at least C$30. There are some rumours in the market that Xstrata at these levels will baulk not so much that LIM is not value but because of funding issues that will arise.

Will Norilsk pay C$30 that is the question remembering to them its really C$31.40. At that price I think, even us with rose coloured glasses, would have to consider it to be getting fully priced. Having said that nickel is over $US24 lb so that aspect comes into play as well.

Will Norilsk counter, I hope so! They have the money especially with the flagged energy division spin off for an esimated $7B. If they don't SP will fall. Will Xstrata get the 67% @ C$25, I reckon thats not a lay down massiere either. Shareholders could opt to dump the directors and keep the cash machine churning.

Currently we are sweating on Norilsk stepping up to the plate. A lot of analyists are purely looking at 2007 earnings multiples for the T.O. which is not correct considering the ramping of production over the next 3 years for LIM to its double output!

I live in hope that BHP is sitting on the sidelines to take up the battle at the 11th hour.

We have up to Friday this week for Norilsk to counter. Let the ride continue.

jojo, your thoughts on my ramblings would be appreciated.

Cheers,
Visionary


 
jojosydney
post Posted: May 21 2007, 09:52 PM
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In reply to: Visionary on Wednesday 16/05/07 07:02pm

Hi Visionaire,

What do you believe is going to happen next???

I am trying to sort my trading live out after LIM and anticipate selling my holding.
But I still believe that we get some more upside imho.

I expect the bidding to stop somewhere above the C$30 which should give us a good 10% return on top of where we are today.

Would like to hear your opinion.

jojo

 
Visionary
post Posted: May 16 2007, 07:02 PM
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LionOre suitor 'shocked' by rival's terms

May 16, 2007

The Russian nickel giant stalking LionOre Mining International Ltd. is not retreating, but said it is outraged that the company agreed to such an unusually large break fee as part of a sweetened $6.2-billion takeover bid from Xstrata PLC.

MMC Norilsk Nickel warned yesterday the controversial measure could have a chilling effect on the auction for the Toronto nickel producer.

"We're serious about this acquisition and we were shocked by the announcement of the break fee," said Tav Morgan, Norilsk's deputy chief executive officer, in an interview from Moscow.

Mr. Morgan said Norilsk is now carefully considering its next move after Xstrata, based in Switzerland, trumped the Russian company's $5.3-billion unsolicited bid by 16 per cent with a $25 a share offer for LionOre.

The executive wouldn't say whether Norilsk planned to file a complaint with securities regulators or launch a legal challenge to the $305-million break fee, which represents 4.9 per cent of the value of Xstrata's higher offer. Break fees are typically in the range of 3 per cent of a transaction's value.

"At this point we're gathering information and developing our options and evaluating them," Mr. Morgan said. The executive argued that the rich termination fee was "inconsistent" with the trend toward improved corporate governance, particularly in North America.

"It almost has an auction-chilling effect to it," he said.

Barry Weir, managing director of JP Morgan Cazenove, which is acting as LionOre's financial adviser, conceded the break-fee is at the "high end of precedents."

However, the investment banker said the LionOre board accepted the rich break fee because the fresh bid significantly increases the amount of cash paid to shareholders.

"They're not trying to create an unfair advantage or an unfair disadvantage on either side. They're trying to maximize value for shareholders in the best possible way that they can," Mr. Weir said in an interview from London.

Mr. Morgan declined to comment on whether Norilsk was prepared to table another bid, only that the company was evaluating its options.

Analysts and investors said despite the substantial increase to Xstrata's offer and the new higher break fee, the likelihood of another bid from Norilsk remains strong.

"[The break fee] is pretty big, but I don't think it's big enough to stop Norilsk in its tracks," said Orest Wowkodaw, an analyst at Canaccord Adams in Toronto.

"I think there is a strong possibility they are coming back."

Indeed, sources close to LionOre described Norilsk as a very committed buyer and said the potential is high for an increased offer.

The battle for the firm, which began in March when Xstrata tabled its original $18.50 a share or $4.6-billion bid, is indicative of the dramatic shift in nickel miners' fortunes. LionOre put itself up for sale more than a year ago when its shares were trading for as little as $5 a piece. Initially, the company failed to attract serious interest. However, with the disappearance of industry stalwarts Inco and Falconbridge and the continued increase in nickel prices to record levels, LionOre and its suite of mines have become hotly sought after.

"I would not be surprised to see Norilsk come out and make another bid, these companies are just generating such huge amounts of cash flow," said Charles Oliver, manager of the AGF Canadian Resources Fund, which owns roughly 5.5 million LionOre shares.

John Hughes an analyst at Desjardins Securities in Toronto, said the valuation LionOre is now fetching has moved the motivation for buyers from an economic decision to a strategic one.

"I think this is Xstrata wanting to rule the world of nickel, [Xstrata CEO] Mick Davis specifically. I think he has a very pragmatic and optimistic view of the world of nickel," he said. Mr. Hughes believes the question now is whether Norilsk shares a similar view.

"We will see. Certainly, I would suggest things are getting expensive."

LIONORE MINING

CLOSE: $26.86, up $3.16

The need for feed

If Norilsk was to win the battle for LionOre, Xstrata could lose a substantial fraction of its nickel feed. Concentrates from the Canadian miner's Nkomati and Tati projects are refined at Xstrata's Nikkelverk facility and make up 23 per cent of its total feed, or 17 per cent of its entire nickel output. Norilsk has something to lose as well; its Harjavalta refinery get 23% percent of its feed from LionOre's Lake Johnston and Black Swan mines.

Xstrata's needs

LionOre could help Xstrata secure at least one-third of the feed needed for Nikkelverk over the long term.

LionOre is relatively cheap compared to other pure play nickel producers or diversified miners and would provide Xstrata with a consistent source of the metal. Costs to develop new mines have increased substantially.

Norilsk's needs

Ownership of LionOre would guarantee Norilsk continued feed supply.

Owning LionOre would diversify Norilsk's asset base - it owns 20 per cent of LionOre's Black Swan and Honeymoon Well projects.

Norilsk may be particularly interested in LionOre's 'Activox' technology, which is being developed to leach nickel from sulphide deposits.



 
 


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