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FMG, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD
nipper
post Posted: Feb 16 2021, 08:04 PM
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Fortescue Metals Group Ltd said on Tuesday Chief Operating Officer Greg Lilleyman and two other executives have resigned as part of a review of its Iron Bridge Magnetite project in Western Australia. The $2.6 billion high grade ore project, which is key to Fortescue's growth strategy, was on track to start exports in the first half of 2022, it said last month, after the Australian newspaper reported the project faced a cost blowout of as much as 25%.

Higher ore grades would mean Fortescue could blend the material with that of its lower grade products to get better prices and potentially win market share from peers BHP Group, Rio Tinto Ltd and Vale SA.. The project is expected to deliver 22 million tonnes when fully ramped up.

The world's fourth biggest iron ore miner said Lilleyman along with Don Hyma, director of projects, and Manie McDonald, director of Iron Bridge, have left the business.
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At Fortescue, our commitment to our values and culture is our highest priority. What we've learned through our review of the Iron Bridge project to date, is that we have lost sight of that critical focus," Chief Executive Officer Elizabeth Gaines said. Core to our values is ... doing what we say we are going to do, she told media after the announcement, adding there had been some evidence of a breakdown in communication. "This is about the culture of the team.

Magnetite iron ore projects are notoriously difficult to develop, with China's CITIC Pacific Sino Iron project in Western Australia arriving years late and billions of dollars over budget.

"The history of these kind of projects in Australia is pretty poor," said Shaw and Partners mining analyst Peter O'Connor. The project will still likely go ahead," he said, adding that Lilleyman was a very experienced operator.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Dec 3 2020, 03:12 PM
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In Reply To: Danville's post @ Dec 3 2020, 01:22 PM

but there again, other miners have several other strings to the bows.

from the ShareCafe front page:

New Vale Cuts Push Iron Ore Above 2013 Highs

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Iron ore prices have hit new seven-year highs on emerging fears of a shortage in early 2020. The fears were sparked by the surprise move by big Brazilian exporter, Vale, to trim its 2020 production estimate for a third time this year and set a smaller than expected first estimate for 2021 output....

And there is also the very interesting institutional reaction, of selling down because of the China thing. A fundie yesterday stated that Simandou is 18 months away from first shipment, and then what has been happening to TWE, barley, lobsters etc may well happen to the major miners. But that is not next week, nor month, nor even next year. Realistically, 3+ years before the Guinea monster has an impact on supply.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
Danville
post Posted: Dec 3 2020, 01:22 PM
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FMG is on an absolute tear today. I love it when all the analysts are wrong. Up almost 14% today with 5 times the number of buyers over sellers lined up in the queue. Possible could be a glorious short squeeze, unless Twiggy has something up his sleeve. The other big miners are only up a respectable 4-5%


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nipper
post Posted: May 19 2020, 03:04 PM
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I have the solution; why doesn't Forrest buy it?
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WA is the state hardest hit by China’s decision to impose a tariff on Australia malting barley, with almost 90 per cent of the barley exported to China grown in the state.

Ms MacTiernan said tensions between Australia and China over the proposed inquiry into the origins of coronavirus had influenced the outcome.

”While we have every confidence that Australian barley is neither being dumped nor subsidised, this final outcome is not surprising, given the Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s conditional ruling less than two weeks ago,” she said.

“It would appear Western Australian barley growers have been caught up in a much larger issue.”

The 80 per cent tariff is expected to all but end the shipment of Australian malting barley to China. Farmers are expected to instead sell the product as lower-value feed for cattle and plant other crops instead.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 14 2020, 11:19 AM
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Someone's optimistic
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“The Chinese government has reaffirmed recently their growth targets and one of the levers at their disposal to achieve those targets is to stimulate the economy through infrastructure investment. And that infrastructure investment tends to be steel-intensive... which means strong demand for steel and strong demand for iron ore”

Elizabeth Gaines, CEO, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd

China also going in big on 5G.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 11 2019, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE
Shares in Fortescue have nearly trebled this year, surging from $3.86 to a record $10.45 during trade on Wednesday as prices for iron ore gallop past $US93 per tonne.

Prices lifted earlier in the year as mine closures in Brazil and Cyclone Veronica closing ports in Western Australia. But the rally is being sustained as global economic conditions lift and speculation mounts in China over increased stimulus measures and greater infrastructure spending.

The rally has lifted Rio Tinto 9¢ to $98.80, it's highest level since mid-August. BHP gave up earlier gains to slip 0.4 per cent to $38.29. Fortescue shares are up 150 per cent this year while BHP is up 12 per cent.

In a note to clients, Macquarie analysts said the strength in iron ore spot prices was in line with its forecasts and as a result there "was no material earnings upgrade potential".

But it said there was significant upside earnings potential for Fortescue in fiscal 2021 of about 70 per cent and between 20 per cent and 30 per cent for BHP and Rio respectively.

"We retain our positive view on FMG with the stock boasting strong medium-term earnings upgrade potential under a spot price scenario," Macquarie told clients. "The gap between RIO and BHP has narrowed with RIO retaining slightly higher free cash flow yields at spot of 9-10 per cent vs 8-9 per cent for BHP. The further recovery in premium iron-ore prices should benefit both Champion Iron and Mount Gibson Iron."

Swelling cash flows for Fortescue have delivered a dividend bounty in recent years...




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 2 2019, 07:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 28 2019, 11:23 AM

FMG breaks through the $10 mark for the first time since May 2008

Iron ore -0.7% to $US87.46 a tonne so what is the reason for FMG's rising SP? According to Citibank

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Citibank itself cited the widening disparity between iron ore prices and FMG’s share price action as a potential problem for the pure-play miner. Peaking iron ore prices and peak Chinese steel output potentially further compounds this issue.

FMG’s potential dividend is the final piece of this bearish puzzle, says Citibank. With the investment bank noting that a large dividend payment around the US$0.96 per share mark in FY20 – equating to a dividend yield of 14.8% – could result in a significant ex-dividend share price reversal.

In saying that, Citibank expects this yield to moderate significantly in FY21 and FY22 – as potentially weaker iron ore prices lead to weaker top and bottom-line figures.

For reference, FMG paid a total of $1.14 per share in dividends during FY19.

In line with all this, Citibank currently has a neutral rating and a bearish share price target of $8.50 on FMG.

https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/...e-highs--191127

Total short positions as at 26th November, 2019 = 4.92%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=fmg

Fortescue Metals Group stock rally sends Andrew Forrest’s stake beyond $10b
https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/fort...-ng-b881399260z
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 28 2019, 11:23 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 26 2019, 09:45 AM

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Must be time for a breather?


Morgan Stanley seems to think so also

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Morgan Stanley anticipates big falls for Fortescue
Shares in high flying iron ore miner Fortescue Metals are likely to experience some turbulence over the next two months, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

“We believe the share price will fall in absolute terms over the next 60 days,” the investment bank told clients.

“This is because the stock has traded up recently, making short term valuation much less compelling. While iron ore is now trading in line with our forecasts, we expect the price to fall next year. At spot, FMG is currently pricing in an iron ore price of around $US85 a tonne, around 40 per cent higher than our long-term price estimate of $US60 a tonne.”

Morgan Stanley estimates there’s a 60 to 70 per cent chance of its call being correct, odds it describes as “likely”.

FMG shares closed at $9.79 on Wednesday.


Iron ore -1.9% to $US87.56 a tonne
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
bg99
post Posted: Nov 26 2019, 09:57 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 26 2019, 09:45 AM

the price of iron ore doesn't look extended..... it could rally off a recent support level here
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blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 26 2019, 09:45 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 15 2019, 03:27 PM

IO price continuing to rise - Iron ore +3.2% to $US90.92 a tonne - FMG's SP following - currently $9.80/share 52 week high. Must be time for a breather?

Total short sales @ 19th November, 2019 = 4.79%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=fmg
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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