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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
mullokintyre
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 05:51 PM
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QUOTE
China's export effort appears to have finally cracked under sustained pressure from US tariffs and a slowdown in global trade
QUOTE


Key points:

China's trade surplus with the US halved as tougher tariffs took their toll
Weak imports point to a domestic economy cooling rapidly
China's appetite for iron ore hit a 10 month low
Exports in US dollar terms fell 20.7 per cent in February, far worse than a 5 per cent drop the market had forecast.

Imports fell by 5.2 per cent, which was also far weaker than expected.

The collapse in both domestic and external demand is bad news for Australian exporters relying on China, and the region, as their most lucrative source of income.

China's overall trade surplus for the month came to $US4.1 billion — wafer thin by its usual standards, and far narrower than the almost $US30 billion forecast.

The impact of US tariffs can be seen in the politically sensitive reading of the bilateral trade balance.

China's surplus with the US almost halved from $US27.3 billion in January to $US14.7 billion last month.

It is a sudden turnaround given data released by US customs earlier this week reported the deficit with China blew out by 19 per cent in December.

Overall, the US recorded a $US621 billion trade gap with China in 2018 — the largest since 2008.



Now thats interesting!
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  nipper  
 
Mork
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 04:26 PM
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With yesterday looking like some type of short term top, i've attached my medium term Elliot Wave count for the SPASX200.

Attached File  WaveABCDE.pdf ( 216.66K ) Number of downloads: 10


I believe we are in Wave D of a large ABCDE Wave that started in 2015.

Wave D should unfold as a simple abc correction similar to prior A B & C waves.

As best as i can tell wave b of D has not completed, so we can expect either a shallow pull back or a complete retrace back to the December 2018 lows. We should then go back above yesterdays high to complete wave b of D.

Five waves down for c will then complete the whole of wave D some time near the end of this year or earlier next year.

After wave D is complete we should see a final wave E to complete the whole sequence from the 2009 lows. I fully expect this Wave E to be large relative the current Wave D which would take the market to ATH around the 8,000 level sometime in 2021 - 23.

Incidentally the SP500 looks to be following a similar pattern so i can see it eventually getting to approx 3,400 in the 2021 - 23 timeframe.

I'll post an update when it looks like Wave D has completed.


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early birds
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 09:02 AM
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eory-is-garbage

BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said he’s not a proponent of modern monetary theory.

“That’s garbage,” Fink said in an interview with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “I’m a big believer that deficits do matter. I’m a big believer that deficits are going to be driving interest rates much higher and it could drive them to an unsustainable level. ”

=======================

i tent to agree with him. people need to understand what is the "live with your means" these days.




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nipper
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 11:03 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 7 2019, 10:43 AM

QUOTE
Camry in the coal mine
... it is very plausible that new car sales are an early warning sign of impending doom. Buying a brand new car is generally the biggest discretionary purchase a household makes.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:43 AM
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US trade deficit hits a 10-year high amid Donald Trump's trade war
By business reporter Stephanie Chalmers, wires
QUOTE
US stocks lost ground after the country's trade deficit widened in December and the shortfall with China worsened, despite US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

The trade deficit increased by nearly 19 per cent in December, leading to a $US621 billion gap for 2018 — the largest since 2008.

Despite Washington imposing tariffs on $US250 billion worth of Chinese goods, the goods deficit with China rose to all-time high last year.

"Perhaps Donald Trump will now discover that tweets and bluster alone won't dramatically shrink the trade deficit. The administration's fiscal policies have helped to boost the trade deficit," the Alliance for American Manufacturing president Scott Paul told Reuters.

Markets are struggling for direction as traders await any update on negotiations between the US and China on a trade agreement.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, its regular report on economic conditions.

The Fed said slowing global growth and the government shutdown weighed on the US economy at the start of the year but that it continued to grow.

However, the central bank said the manufacturing sector cited concerns about the trade tensions, including "weakening global demand, higher costs due to tariffs, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty".

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/us-t...ection=business

On the home front.......

Australia's GDP shows we're in a type of 'recession' and car dealers are bearing the brunt
By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated about 3 hours ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/car-...ection=business



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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nipper
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:36 AM
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People are struggling to define the New Normal. Probably because it's all abnormal, uncharted territory. Scary.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 


early birds
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:31 AM
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It's hard to think of a scenario where interest rates would need to go up this year. The inflation pressures are very benign, wage growth remains low and the current rate of wage growth is unlikely to generate an inflation rate of 2.5 per cent," Dr Lowe said.

"There are quite a lot of things weighing on the rate of inflation at the moment so I think it's quite unlikely that inflation is going to be a problem any time soon. And if it's not, then we can keep with the current setting of monetary policy for some time."

He also disputed that low rates fuelled the growth of property prices to unsustainable levels, conceding that while interest rates played a small part this was overshadowed by the inflexibility of housing supply to meet the groundswell of demand supported by population growth.

Supply eventually caught up, but arrived later, he said.

https://www.afr.com/markets/rba-defies-the-...y_Sent=07032019

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rate is too low -----so. no plan to cut it RBA
wondering .what if housing price down another 15% this year?? don't think rate cut will help much IMHO.



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early birds
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 03:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 6 2019, 10:52 AM

Please loosen monetary policy before things get even worse.
==================

the rate already at historic low, how you gonna loosen it???? HOW??

RBA screwed the rates up alright. they should raise it when they had chance two years ago. now RBA almost run out bullets.

i guess we have to whethering this down tern without the medicine from RBA----witch will running longer and deeper i'm afraid !! cool.gif



 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 11:27 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 6 2019, 10:52 AM

For anyone interested, here is the RBA's - The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Chart Pack | March 2019
https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart...-03-06-12-24-40




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 10:52 AM
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Australia's economy is cooling rapidly, growing at just 2.3pc last year
QUOTE
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Posted 12 minutes ago

Australia's economy hit the brakes at the end of last year, growing at just 0.2 per cent over the fourth quarter.

The weak result dragged down Australia's economic growth over 2018 to 2.3 per cent, well below the Reserve Bank's optimistic call of 2.8 per cent and beneath even the more pessimistic analyst forecasts.

More to come.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/gdp-q4-2018/10874592

Some interesting comments from Stephen Koukoulas - https://twitter.com/TheKouk

"I wonder if Mr Morrison and Mr Frydenberg will still bang on about the "strong" economy?"
"These are the weakest back to back GDP figures since 2006 - dreadful"
"Annualised GDP growth in second half of 2018 a dismal 1%..."
"Bye bye budget surplus"
"Per Capita GDP last 2 quarters: -0.1% and -0.2% - Ouch!"
"Whoops - absolutely horrible GDP data"
"Big hint from Lowe - get set for upside: AUD 0.7085 +++"
"So we have a per capita GDP recession:
Two quarters were GDP per capita goes backwards:
A rare event:
Other times:
2006
2000
1991"
"Dear RBA
You screwed up.
Economy on cusp of a very hard landing; inflation below target; record wealth destruction; labour underutilisation just off record highs.
Please loosen monetary policy before things get even worse.
Sincerely, TheKouk"
Attached File(s)
Attached File  D074q9lVAAAk3GY.png ( 38.13K ) Number of downloads: 2

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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