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mminion
Posted on: Oct 27 2010, 12:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Loop... at what point does it get to / stop ?

It's most likely a driver issue and hence making it load into Safe Mode will prove the point.

Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 30 2010, 12:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

I saw an interesting comment (elsewhere) the other day,

QUOTE
Australia's population is growing by nearly 2% each year. Fact is, its going to be pretty hard for any asset bubble to deflate under those circumstances. The only other OECD country with population growth near 2% is Israel, and funnily enough, the only OECD country with asset prices still 300% higher than they were 10 years ago is Israel.


Anyone that's followed this topic for the last couple of years knows I'm big in the idea compare apples with apples, not apples with oranges.

I also came across the following comments, the RP data blog (in response to Jeremy Grantham rolling into Australia last month pushing the line that prices had to fall 42 per cent to revert to trend)

QUOTE
The big difference between Australia and most other parts of the world is that we are a highly centralised society with only six states and two territories. 60 per cent of all home sales take place across 0.5 per cent of the land mass. Based on ABS figures to June 2009, the capital cities account for an estimated 14,039,373 persons of a total of 21,955,256 persons nationally. This means that about 64 per cent of the Australian population lives within the capital cities with an estimated 55 per cent of the population living within the four largest cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth).

When you compare this to other countries you can see there are fundamental differences not just in the size of Australia's population but the fact that it is so heavily centralised. As some examples:

In 2007 the USA had an estimated population of 302.2 million persons, the 20 largest cities in the country, in terms of population, accounted for just 10.7 per cent of the population. The 50 largest US cities account for only 15.5 per cent of the population. Sydney makes up an estimated 20.5 per cent of Australia's population.

There are similar results in some European nations. Although the data is a little older, 2001 Census data shows the United Kingdom had a total population just over 49 million persons. Whilst London accounted for 14.6 per cent of the total population, the 20 largest cities accounted for 27.7 per cent of the population. Sydney and Melbourne combined account for an estimated 38.7 per cent of Australia's population.

In Germany, 2002 statistics show the estimated population was 82.4 million persons. The capital Berlin accounted for 4.0 per cent of the country's total population whilst the 20 largest cities accounted for 17.8 per cent of the population.

Finally, 2002 statistics for France show that the 20 largest cities in the country account for 11.7 per cent of the total population.

Getting the idea? As a population we spread ourselves very thinly across the country. Obviously we can't all move to the desert in the middle of Australia but there are plenty of habitable regions of the country which are under populated. 64 per cent of the country's population on 0.5 per cent of the land mass is completely nonsensical. The capitals are also experiencing the highest increases in population, which creates a major strain on infrastructure in these regions and leads to higher property prices (particularly when new housing construction is in such short supply). As an outsider looking in you can understand why international experts believe we are in a housing bubble but when you look beneath the surface the fundamentals of the Australian property market are very different here.

We are also yet to mention the fact that Australia's population grew at a rate of 2.1 per cent during the year to September 2009. With an addition of almost 452,000 residents to the population during the last year where do you think they are going? They go where the jobs are… and where are the jobs? The jobs are where 64 per cent of the population is, in the capital cities. More accurately, most jobs are in Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Perth.

Add to the mix the fact that unemployment has peaked much lower than forecast and continues to improve, the Australian resources sector is once again warming up, mortgage arrears remain well under 1 per cent and, as a nation, we remain undersupplied in housing by more than 178,000 dwellings. With all this in mind, the outlook for Australian home values doesn't appear to be anything like a 42 per cent correction. Our view is that home value growth is likely to moderate, tracking household income growth which is likely to be circa 5 per cent over the coming year


This just yet again shows that one has to "look beneath the surface the fundamentals" if you wish to predict how Australian housing prices will act.

Back 7 months ago I predicted 4% growth for 2010, the above comments are predicting 5%... the media swings from boom to bust monthly (it sells papers) as they say time will tell.

Anyhow all something to think about

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jul 13 2010, 04:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

I'd call your broker's IT suppport and have a chat.

There have been a number of recent PDF security issues and maybe they have coded WebIress to "act" like this (that said if that was the case I'm surprised there aren't more people complaining). It could be they have coded it to act that way IF a earlier version was installed i.e 9.1 or 9.2 (and hence a greater security risk)

Before downgrading, I'd make sure your using the lastest version of Reader (9.3.3)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 13 2010, 12:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Brierley,

Couple of Q's first...

"Go offline" please explain this in a little more detail, does the connection drop (have a look at the debug screen) or does it simply look like it freezes ?

Does the PDF open up in Adobe Reader or the browser (i.e. FireFox) window ? (e.g. do you see Adobe Reader in the bar across the bottom of the screen).

Open Adobe Reader, Click "edit" (in the menu at the top), Preferences, Internet... is "Display PDF in browser" ticked ? (unlick it, click OK at the bottom, and try to recreate the issue and see what happens)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: May 18 2010, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Arty,

Looking at long term support lines is little simplistic, especially if you also look at volume (which is well below normal). There's no doubt it's in a down trend, but then again so is most of the market.

As for the financials I can see.. Increasing revenue & decreasing Costs. It's no poster child but financially it's at least moving in the right direction, slowly. Trim some costs, promote a little better and you may even start to break even.

Cheers

Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: May 18 2010, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

The whole etrade site is generally slow... given what happened yesterday, I'd suggest today will be another shocking (and hence busy) day on the ASX.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 11 2010, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Duster,

I have the 500D (the earlier version of the 550D). The major difference between the 450-1000 and the 500-550 is the ability to record 1080 HD video and some better ISO levels. If she is doing graphic design I'd suggest HD video is really useful (I'd suggest she would do alot of multi media in projects).

The big thing with SLR's is the len/s are just as important as the camera body, so if you get a 500-550 get the dual lense kit (or the body only and buy a 18-200mm lens)

As for duty free, Australian duty free is simply 10% off... you'll get big price savings (i.e. 1/3+) if you buy it duty free in a OS airport (like Singapore or Hong Kong). Further to that I can point you to a number of good HKG camera shops that sell online via ebay and paypal (long term gold ebay sellers, they don't rip people off as they live and die based on a 99%+ feedback score) and if you go that way it's closer to almost half the price (the price difference is simply Canon trying to make more $ from the Australian market, it all is the exact same product).

If you want a hand give me a IM

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: May 6 2010, 09:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Duster, man you really piss me off... the wife loves that site
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 6 2010, 07:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Guys this is what gets me.. is it really that hard to give a source ?

"Ok. Median wage in Adelaide $38,000 P.A.
Average house price? $405,000:

All the figures (including ABS) show income for Adelaide above $50K
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Pr...;num=&view=

The Demographia International housing affordability survey shows this for Adelaide: Median house price was $363,000 and the median income was $50,900 (this survey is now 12 months old, and it's based on even older information so I am more then happy to accept the house price has moved upwards 10-15% in around 2 years, but whats the chances the income dropped by 20%+ ??)

"First home buyer does need 15% deposit (I believe CBA is 20% for first home buyer), unless mummy and daddy are going guarantor. Then they can still borrow 110%."

Lots mummy's and daddy's are happy to go guarantor... it gets the kids OUT of the nest our days and/or give them a helping hand (some I know give the deposit they are so sick of the young adults.. err kids) so lets be real for a second, I'd say most rock upto the bank with WELL less then 20% (infact I hear about it all the time).

As for flower, I'll look tonight.. I really love the idea that a couple require a nice HOUSE 3br and not a semi nice FLAT 2br.

Anyhow as I said everyone keeps focusing on FHO... they are less then 1/4 of all buyers yearly, and if you look at those that either bought in the last 12 months OR want to buy in the next 12 months as a % they are a drop in the bucket if you compare with all home owners, it's like trying to suggest that someone buying $100,000 of a $1 share effects the SP, sure they do for a short period of time... but moving a stock up or down 0.05 means little to all the holder that bought at 0.90 or below (with most having an average price of half that amount)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 6 2010, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Flower,

Your sums don't add up... lets not make up numbers to try to make a point.

"Min deposit $80K (that rules 90% out as non starters)"
20% deposit. What world are you living in? 5-10% is the norm

"Max Loan 3X both salaries = $240K"
Dual Income of $80K, Just checked and it would seem they can borrow $386,087 and $514,783

Lets go back to basics, LIST the suburb you keep refering to. I'd personally like to double check the that $400K is the starting price for a house and that $40K is the average income (I hate round numbers, normally means someone made them up)

I'm sure that after you LIST the suburb I'll find cheaper housing and discover the average income isn't 40K.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 6 2010, 04:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Matt--surely affordability is THE key to house prices?"

Affordability effects price, but it's not the key to price (employment is). Affordability has a greater effect on the MAX price, then the on MIN price (hence it effects the upwards swing of the curve). It's also worth pointing out "affordability" wise, the media mainly focuses on FHB, affordability isn't a big issue for the other 6/8+ of the market unless they are trying to trade upwards.

The 6/8's of the market would be effected IF unemployment rises (as some would default) but that said most Australian lenders go out of their way to make sure "default" doesn't happen (as they have a keen reason to keep the market from falling more then 5-10%).

"$400,000 for a starter house in an area where full time wages dont exceed $40,000?"
So that's $80K of income (people need accept dual income is the norm for FHB) all that said, people need to also accept that NOT everyone can/should/will be the owner of their own home.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 6 2010, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Worth also posting the retort..

House price implosion claims ridiculous, says local economist
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/money/house-pr...f-1225861515696

""The story about house prices falling tends to be pushed pretty strongly from overseas groups in particular because they don't understand the growth outlook here and the under-supply of dwellings," he said.

"They tend to transpose what's been going on in the US and the UK to the Australian housing market and they are not applicable.

"The stories make a good headline but they just don't apply."

Mr Workman said Australia's unique situation of strong population growth, a housing shortage, low unemployment and historically low interest rates would keep house prices high"

But Mr Workman said it would take high unemployment and people defaulting on loans to puncture house prices - both of which were "unlikely".

Our jobless rate will inch toward 5 per cent – not the 10 per cent in the US and UK – and Australia has "an extremely low" rate of late debt payments, even when mortgage rates hit 9 per cent recently, he said.

"We just went through a period where interest rates were quite high here and that did slow the housing market down, it stablised it," Mr Workman said.

"But these large price falls people talk about really need a rise in unemployment to occur and at this stage the markets are heading in the other direction.

____________________________________

The "local economist" is Michael Workman, he works for Commbank so one has to factor that into the comments.

That said, Edward Chancellor (or the media, we all know how they do blow stories up and out of context) makes a number of contradictory points.

i.e. He attributed Australia's "luck" to a comparative lack of competition among local banks, enabling them to avoid much of the reckless lending that occurred in the US. He also points out that the unemployment rate in AUS is half that of the US/UK

So on one hand he compares US/UK with AUS.. and on the other lists all the differences between the two (no crazy lending, low unemployment, growing economy). It's a little like claiming apples and oranges are the same because they are both "round" and then noting that they are different colours and taste completely different.

Unemployment is the key to all housing prices... until the needle turns the other way I don't see AUS housing prices changing direction.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 23 2010, 10:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Woman: Oh look John the Chinese are bidding on this house, we have no chance
Man: Yeah
A couple of minutes later…
Auctioneer: Sold to the gentleman in the red top, congratulations
A couple of minutes later… I walk over to the man, in the red top, who is also the man referred to by the first woman as "Chinese"
Me: Congratulations, nice house, welcome to the neighborhood
Man in the red top: Thank you, we love the house and we really like the neighborhood, see you around (ALL SAID IN A PERFECT ENGLISH WITH AN AUSTRALIAN ACCENT)

Because someone "looks" Chinese doesn't mean they are a Chinese national, foreign buyer and so on
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 21 2010, 10:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"It's outrageous that our uni graduates move overseas for experience and the better wages, only to find that they CAN NOT afford to move back to Australia due to it's ridiculously large rises in living costs, but mostly the house prices."

Better wages OS, would you like to back that up with some proof ? When the AUD was trading @ 0.60 to the USD maybe but our days with the AUD doing a lot better the shoe is on the other foot. I have more then one friend that earns more now in AUS then they did in England 2 years ago (when you convert Pounds to AUD).

As for house prices, everyone I know has a house (and I'm in my 30's). The issue is about down sizing Gen-Y's dreams, they all want their first house to be the same as their parents (or in most cases better then their parents). Houses ARE affordable, prefect houses aren't.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 12 2010, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

It's REALLY unlikely it's AVG causing the issue, otherwise you'd be hearing complaints left, right and center.
It's also REALLY unlikely it's a virus or spyware (spyware can't spy if you can't enter information into the PC).

The issue is most likely newly installed software (so whats changed on the PC in the last week) or failing hardware.

So lets all go back a set and ask the most important question, what are you doing just before the crash ?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Apr 1 2010, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Pilko3,

I suggest you READ the act and the regulations, your suggestion violates them.

If your suggestion DIDN'T violate them you would see press release after press release informing the Australian population about how a product worked, how a product looked and so on in a different country (and hence side steping both the act and the regulations).

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Apr 1 2010, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Pilko3,

"why wouldn't SLA here post such details in a hyped up press release announcement"

It's been covered in this topic, multiple times, before… both "Therapeutics Goods Act 1989" and the "Therapeutic Goods Regulations 1990" restrict how you can promote products like Ropren within Australia.

All biotech's in Australia walk a very fine line between informing the market and breaking the Therapeutics Goods Act

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Mar 31 2010, 01:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Wolverine,

Grange... no, no, no, its a good example of how PR can overtake taste.

Pssss... If you want something really good go hunting for a bottle of Rockford's Basket Press. You can only buy this cellar door (and they only allow you to buy one per person) but every once and a while I do see a bottle or two popup at good wine shop.



Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Mar 31 2010, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

While personally I like to drink the stuff.. it would seem someone has created a index to watch the stuff

QUOTE
From 2005 to 2008, the General Wine Index (GWI) doubled. Since mid-2008, it has fallen 17 per cent as a result of the global financial crisis. The Russell 3000 index (which measures the performance of 3000 publicly held US companies) lost 47 per cent in the same period.

Wines selling below $US200 a bottle saw a steady increase over the 13-year period and yielded a return of 120 percent, while those selling for under $100 a bottle generated a 170 per cent return.

Wines selling for more than $200 and especially those over $400 a bottle, such as Chateau Petrus or Chateau Haut-Brion, had a three-to-four-fold price increase.


http://wine-economics.org/workingpapers/AAWE_WP57.pdf

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Mar 29 2010, 12:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
"They want to send their children to the best schools and think property here is cheap compared to the big cities in China, where you don't get freehold ownership over land, just a 99-year lease."


Most people don't realise that the idea that Australia has some of the world's most expensive housing markets is based largely on a single report, Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.

The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey only samples 265 markets and if you look more deeply at the 265 markets you'll note the survey doesn't really take many European and Asian markets into account (it pretty much focuses on the "English" speaking countries)

If the survey took Asian countries and more of Europe into account, Australia would not rate quite so highly.

I'm not saying Australia is cheap or undervalued, but Australia isn't as expensive as the press makes out.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 10 2010, 02:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

A minister dies and is waiting in line at the Pearly Gates. Ahead of him is a guy who's dressed in sunglasses, a loud shirt, leather jacket, and jeans.
Saint Peter addresses this guy, "Who are you, so that I may know whether or not to admit you to the Kingdom of Heaven?"
The guy replies, "I'm Joe Cohen, stockbroker."
Saint Peter consults his list. He smiles and says to the stockbroker, "Take this silken robe and golden staff and enter the Kingdom of Heaven."
The stockbroker goes into Heaven with his robe and staff, and it's the minister's turn. He stands erect and booms out, "I am Joseph Snow, pastor of Saint Mary's for the last forty-three years."
Saint Peter consults his list. He says to the minister, "Take this cotton robe and wooden staff and enter the Kingdom of Heaven."
"Just a minute," says the minister. "That man was a stockbroker-- he gets a silken robe and golden staff but I, a minister, only get a cotton robe and wooden staff? How can this be?"
"Up here, we work by results," says Saint Peter. "While you preached, people slept; his clients, they prayed."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Mar 3 2010, 03:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Balance,

The issue is format based, i.e. NTFS, FAT32 & FAT16.

Get a 2GB USB stick (can't be larger then 2GB, Officework have them for $8.88 )
Format it Fat16 (Stick it into a XP/Vista machine, My Computer, Right Mouse Click it, Format)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Feb 24 2010, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mistagear

It may pay to "read" the topic before making a comment. Dan's simply asking about how to start trading... it has nothing to do with starting a career in trading.

QUOTE
Over the years i have literally seen thousands of contributors to stock market forums come and go, many leaving with less than they arrived with.


I do smile when I see comments like the above (you made the same point in another topic), as they seem to imply that forums cause people to make bad investments. The real question is.. How many would have made bad investments even if they never used a forum ?. Forums aren’t the problem, nor are they the solution… they are simply yet another tool that can be used to hopefully make informed decisions.

Dan, when you read a few books you’ll (hopefully) learn the below…

The truth is around 55-60% investors lose money. This is due to a number of reasons but the top 5 are:

  • People buy on the way down. If a share was good value at $1.00 it must be a bargain if it’s only $0.80 now.
  • People don’t like buying stock breaking into new highs. In reality a stock making new highs has a higher probability of rising than one at new lows.
  • Newbie’s want huge profits and have little capital. Half a dozen trades later and they exit the market and swear never to trade again.
  • Newbie’s buy stocks because their dividends are high or they have a low P/E. History has shown no correlation between low P/E ratios and winning stocks.
  • No stoploss.
Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Feb 24 2010, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"I am 17" & "in school"

All,

Think everyone needs to stop for a second review Dan's current position before giving advise.

What's more important... focusing on getting a good education OR day trading (in or between classes) a few thousand?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Feb 23 2010, 04:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"I am 17"

That's your first issue, most T&C will state you must be 18 or older to use this product.

Without wanting to sound rude but you really need to start with more cash.

At most $1500 will only buy you two positions.

$730 in CBA (the other $20 is required to cover brokerage)
$730 in NAB (the other $20 is required to cover brokerage)

To make a profit both will have to increase by more the 5% (and that's forgetting that UP isn't the only direction shares move).

Save you money, paper trade, buy a couple of books on trading and apply the lessons learnt to your paper trading and see if it improves your return.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Feb 17 2010, 06:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Mosaic

It's a BIOS setting. Just after turning on the PC (well before Window's loads) you'll see a "Hit F1" (it will be one of the F keys) to edit BIOS settings (it will flash up for under 5 sec so you'll need to be quick)

In BIOS you'll have something about "Boot Order" and one of the settings will be "USB". You'll need to turn it to off/disabled for USB.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Feb 17 2010, 05:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

I thought the wife was a ball breaker and then I saw this.... This guy takes a 500kg kick to the balls blush.gif

http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2010/02/the-scie...k-to-the-balls/

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mungo,

Yes it was a simple question and my answer is not simple enough to be pigeon holed into one of only two options, hence I suggested you review the topic. I’ve made my viewpoints in the month long debate, I even did a quick one line summary in my reply to your question, which it would seem you didn’t like it as it didn’t fit into your black or white approach.

I don’t think you’ll find a single educated person that believes “man is the culprit”, the science clearly shows there are background cycles at play, the real question is “What level of effect is man causing above and beyond the natural cycle?”

Once that question is answered the next is "What are the results, both short and long of those effects?"

As I said multiple times, we can't really for sure answer either question. We have ideas and theories but the only factor that will prove/disprove them is time.

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Review the topic, that idea that your on the left or right ignores that there's a WIDE gap in the middle

The same way IMO it's silly to believe that 6.5 billion don't have any effect on the world's climate. As I've said multiple times, there are systems at work that we (humans) don't understand, that said that doesn't mean we shouldn't try and minimise our impact on those systems.

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 12:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Also interesting that they all but totally ignore the impact of volcanoes on climate"

Thats something I've touched on before... the below talks about a BIG eruption that until now we had no idea about. There are theories that eruptions like this are from underwater volanco's. The so called "jockey stick" may not be part of a pattern, it maybe just a group of random events.

"Previously Unknown Volcanic Eruption Helped Trigger Cold Decade"

The discovery, published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, offers an explanation as to why the decade from 1810 to 1819 is regarded by scientists as the coldest on record for the past 500 years.

“If you look at the size of the signal we found in the ice cores, it had to be huge. It was bigger than the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, which killed hundreds of people and affected climate around the world.”

Led by a chemist from South Dakota State University, the team of scientists made its discovery after analyzing chemicals in ice samples from Antarctica and Greenland in the Arctic, where the scientists visited and drilled ice cores three years ago.

“We found large amount of volcanic sulfuric acid in the snow layers of 1809 and 1810 in both Greenland and Antarctica,” said professor Jihong Cole-Dai of SDSU’s Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry.

Cole-Dai said climate records show that not only were 1816 — the so-called “year without a summer”— and the following years very cold, the entire decade from 1810 to 1819 was probably the coldest for at least the past 500 years.

Scientists have long been aware that the massive and violent eruption in 1815 of an Indonesian volcano called Tambora, which killed more than 88,000 people in Indonesia, had caused the worldwide cold weather in 1816 and after. Volcanic eruptions have a cooling effect on the planet because they release sulfur gases into the atmosphere that form sulfuric acid aerosols that block sunlight

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 31 2009, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
"I take your post to be a civilised "nah, nah, nah-nah-nah" at those of us, like me, who feel that Aussie housing prices should have been heading down. smile.gif Yeah, fair enough, winners can be grinners."


Nothing of the such, the post is simply in response to a calendar alert I placed (FHOG boost end) and a reflection on the year/last 6 months (something I've done before a number of times in this topic). If I was wrong I would have made the exact same type of post.

Firstly, the blog talks about shorting Kodak, buying another OR avoiding the full photo sector.... what he fails to suggest is buying into one of electronic companies in which would mostly be making the digital devices (sorry but the smart guy in the room would be thinking that IMO)

As to making money, the Australian mortgage market and the Big Four are closely linked (so even if you’re not buying/selling property you can trade its future success/failures)

I saw this the other day...
“On Wednesday (2/9) the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) released data showing that the Big Four banking groups in July, captured almost 100 per cent market share of the new mortgage market, valued at approximately $7 billion. Prior to the freeze in credit markets last year, the majors controlled roughly 60 per cent of the new mortgage market.”

I don’t know of another market in which only 4 players have such control (while not good, that’s how it is)... any move in housing prices / mortgage defauls etc will be reflected in some way in the big 4’s SP.

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Dec 31 2009, 12:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/

Sovereign and inflation risks on the rise:
Fifth, but not least, we think that sovereign risk and inflation risk will be a major theme for markets in 2010. The current issues surrounding Greece's fiscal problems are only a taste of things to come in many other advanced (note: not emerging) economies, in our view. We note that fiscal policy looks set to remain expansionary in all major economies next year, as it arguably should be, given the ‘triple B' recovery which still requires support. However, markets are likely to increasingly worry about longer-term fiscal sustainability, and rightly so. Importantly, the issue is not really about potential sovereign defaults in advanced economies. These are extremely unlikely, for a simple reason: most of the government debt outstanding in advanced economies is in domestic currency, and in the (unlikely) case that governments cannot fund debt service payments through new debt issuance, tax increases or asset sales, they can instruct their central bank to print whatever is needed (call it quantitative easing). Thus, in the last analysis, sovereign risk translates into inflation risk rather than outright default risk. We expect markets to increasingly focus on these risks in the year ahead, pushing inflation premia and thus bond yields significantly higher. Put differently, the next crisis is likely to be a crisis of confidence in governments' and central banks' ability to shoulder the rising public sector debt burden without creating inflation.

> I don't dispute it’s a risk, more globally then locally... but at the same time inflation is the bigger risk

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Dec 31 2009, 10:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

We end 2009 with an unemployment rate 5.7% and housing prices up 6-7% YTD.

We didn't even get close to the double digit unemployment rate predicted by some, nor a housing price bust.

FHOG Boost halved at the end of September and disappears completely at midnight tonight... just like in October I don't think the drop in FHOB will have much effect given the increasing population and existing home owners upgrading.

So 2010? I'll stick my neck out and predict housing prices will increase around 4%. Interest rates will have the greatest effect, in that FHOB will be squeezed into single digits. IMO Existing home owners will weather increasing rates very well... no mass panic selling, just a increasing number of foxtel disconnections and a drop in blue ray disc sales.

Happy NYE
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: Ironing
mminion
Posted on: Dec 29 2009, 12:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Forrest,

I think it's time you came out with it... given the results of the poll, who in the household was right ?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 29 2009, 12:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

FF and IE are very different beasts with how they hit a webserver.

IE Request 1, Response to Request 1, Request 2, Response to Request 2, Request 3, Response to Request 3.
FF Request 1, Request 2, Response to Request 1, Request 3, Response to Request 2, Response to Request 3.

All that said, "server not found" is a more basic issue.... First thing would be to disable any Add-On's in FF. If that doesn't work (10-1 it's a Add-On) I'd be looking at disabling Anti-virus/Anti-Spyware software (i.e. it may have an exception for IE but not FF). If it's a AV issue you'd most likely have the same problem with Chrome (as it to would be missing the exception)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 23 2009, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Geoq,

Climategate IMO shows what we have always known, there are people within any system that stretch the truth to suite their personal opinions/goals.

The exact same issue occurs in the medical profession... doctors that fudge trial results, doctors closely linked with drug companies (conflict of interest) and so on. What about local government councillors? If you believe the press they all on the take.

Quickly on Wiki, all moderation is public... there are thousands of people with admin rights hence ask the question... why did no one question or reverse his actions (barring people) IF they didn't agree with them? Could it be they agreed with his admin actions, i.e. the "barred" contributors failed to follow Wiki's TOU or past warnings? Wiki is a wild place and if you review some of the reverses (rewrites) they are simply taking the page BACK to where it was before someone came and posted something without citing any references. Try it out, I could for example edit pages on nuclear weapon stockpiles and increase Russia's number by 100. The fact it's so easy to edit means no Australian UNI will accept wiki as a reference source.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 23 2009, 02:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Worth the read IMO,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009...ange-mark-lynas

"This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to."

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 23 2009, 12:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Darth Vader, R2-D2 and several stormtroopers rang the opening bell on Wall Street today, kicking off the New York Stock Exchange.

LOL, that's kind of funny. What does it say about Wall Street, when the most evil Lord in the galaxy is invited to kick off the trading?

BTW The image is real, Google it and you'll see it really happened yesterday on NYSE

Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Poll: Ironing
mminion
Posted on: Dec 23 2009, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Forrest,

There is another factor.... what is being ironed. i.e. For shirts I point the board to the X but for things like pillow covers I find it doesn't matter which way it's pointed.

I smell a multi million dollar research study here tongue.gif

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 09:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mosaic,

Given the context (and my previous posts on population) it's not too hard to see I was being sarcastic when I said "....Nice".

If the rising human outputs of CO2 isn't warming the planet (as per the models and lab experiments suggest) then one could easily suggest it's been absorbed elsewhere within the ecosystem and at a greater rate than expected (which is good news for everyone)

I'd be pointing the finger at the oceans/seas, they are a wonderful CO2 sponge….but like all sponges, they act differently depending on temp and furthermore there is a max absorption point.

Research is starting to show the CO2 soaked by a square km of ocean can vary from year to year from 18 to 41 million metric tons. The variation is caused by sea surface temperature & the thickness of the surface waters that had been thoroughly mixed by winds, waves and turbulence during the previous winter (The deeper that mixed surface layer is, the more nutrients are available for surface-dwelling, CO2-gulping phytoplankton during spring and summer months)

It's worth pointing out the mean ocean temperature difference between the year that recorded 18m and 41m was 0.2 of a degree centigrade. And that's the point… what we think is only a small change (i.e. 2 degrees over 50 years) can have massive effects we are yet to understand.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 04:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"he understands that you need to do a cost benefit analysis in order to et the best bang for your efforts."

I hear the exact same issue weekly but in relation to health spending... that said it's amazing the number of people that change position when faced with the care of a loved one. CBA works best when it effects someone else... humans really are a funny bunch

"To date, actual temperatiures are falling further and further below the IPCC projections. So it is likely that the model projections are wrong = brings into doubt the impact of human CO2 gases."

The model projections are wrong because we don't understand all the systems. Not understanding how something currently works doesn't mean you're not impacting it's future ability to function.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Got to love the tag "ex-environmentalist"... he believes in climate change.

His own words... "Climate change is a 100-year problem — we should not try to fix it in 10 years." "he opposes the Kyoto Protocol and other measures to cut carbon emissions in the short-term, and argues that we should instead adapt to short-term temperature rises as they are inevitable, and spend money on research and development for longer-term environmental solutions, and on other important world problems such as AIDS, malaria and malnutrition."

"Lomborg spent a year as an undergraduate at the University of Georgia, earned a master's degree in political science at the University of Aarhus in 1991, and a Ph.D. in political science at the University of Copenhagen in 1994. He has no training in climatology, meteorology, or the physical sciences, but is trained in the use of mathematics and statistics in the social sciences."

So instead of trying to fix the issue, he is proposing we live with it and focus on further increasing the world's population.... nice.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 18 2009, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mosaic1996

I saw the question but after seeing your fine example of cherry picking questions to answer earlier in the week I decided not to answer it (sorry but you can't have it both ways). We can either bog the topic down and demand each answers every question, or we move on... just like I did days ago.

"our current dams are coping reaonably well even with the hugh increases in demand from an increasing population"

Can anyone say Water Restrictions? Didn't they only just end (and in some places still remain in force) Yes the dams are higher now than last year.. but that alone shows the levels go up and down all the time. Flooding even more large areas and cutting off existing water flows VS creating a second system that you can turn off/on depending on existing dam levels. That's the point, desal is a second system... mass storm water storage could easily be a third. Just relying on one system IMO is simply asking trouble.

"I suspect that the current process (including COP15) is about as good as we can get. There have been a lot of smart people working on it to date, and this is the best that they can come up with (in the real world).I have had enough trouble in the past managing the complexities of relatively simple multi-million dollar multi-discipline projects in the past to know that there are no simple solution to the questions that you pose."

Some people are dead against the current process, hence posing the question. I've asked the same question personally and when asked "How else do we then" the argument defaults back to climate change is a myth.

Cheers
Matt

BTW Focus, dreging active water supplies creates a number of issues (i.e. cloudy tap water for a number of weeks)
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 18 2009, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mosaic,

Flash clearly pointed out he doesn't want "another beauracracy at the global level"

I'm not hot on the idea either that said I'm not sure how else we tackle the issue... hence I posed those 3 questions. It's nice to see your trying to lower your impact, but it doesn't address my posed questions on how we globally set, enforce and encourage.

Cheers
Matt

BTW Quickly on Dams VS Desal. Forget the environmental impact for a second... dams only work IF rainfall patterns remain the same.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 17 2009, 09:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Flash

"I know you're not accusing anyone of this directly but this is the kind of thing which really gets on my tits"

I'm simply quoting US focus group research (word for word) in an effort to help show the NRO's opinion may not be totally objective.

"The setting up of another beauracracy at the global level to, at least initially, manage climate issues, takes it even further."

Lets go back a step, it seems almost everyone here agrees that we should reduce the human "impact" on the environment. What's up for debate is how much that should be reduced AND/OR the effects of that impact on other natural systems (such as global warming).

So I pose the question... if we want to reduce the human "impact" on the environment;
How do we workout/set global targets ?
How do we get all countries to do their "fair" share ?
How do help the poorer countries do their fair share ?

Personally I think the whole issue needs to be spilt up into smaller, easy to measure sections, i.e. Coal/Oil, Closure of all coal power plants by 20XX, Phasing out the petrol engine by 20XX.... and so on. Plans to simply cut reducutions by X% by 20XX leave it all to open to failure.

Cheers
Matt

BTW I saw a interesting comment today, Russia is happy to agree to a 20% CO2 reduction (based on 1990 levels) because it's ALREADY under that level due the collapse of the communism.... just goes to show that setting a single global target just doesn't work.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 17 2009, 03:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Macca2,

"Until very recently they would not have run that story"
Sorry a quick google shows thats not correct. CBS is a well respected news source BECAUSE it often reports/allows on both sides of the story (it's not like FOX).

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 17 2009, 01:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Finally, the media is starting to realise that perhaps it is all less than honest"

The media? "By Mona Charen: Reprinted with permission from National Review Online."
Go google.... "National Review Online", it's a very right wing political (Republican) opinion magazine. "National Review carries little corporate advertising and has never turned a profit. The magazine stays afloat by donations from subscribers and black-tie fund raisers around the country" (No surprise about the opinion piece when you understand who paid for it)

A US think-tank American probed a little deeper to the levels of scepticism. It split citizens into six categories depending on how they felt about man-made climate change, from "alarmed" through to "dismissive".

The genders were roughly equally represented in the middle groupings, but at the margins the divide was absolutely stark: "Almost two-thirds of the Dismissive are men (63%), the largest gender split among the six segments," the report concluded.

What else did the survey reveal about the "dismissive" group?
"More likely than average to be high income, well-educated, white men... much more likely to be very conservative Republicans... strongly endorse individualistic values, opposing any form of government intervention, anti-egalitarian, and almost universally prefer economic growth over environmental protection... have a specialized media diet, with a higher than average preference for media sources that reflect their own political point of view."

We all need to (BOTH SIDES) spend the extra moment or two and try and find out who's behind the viewpoint, statistic and so on..

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 15 2009, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

The graphs need to be overlaid with the global volcanic activity (one of the main reasons for sudden direction change, both ways).

How many here would base a trading decisions on BHP using 1 year old data ? what about 5 year old data ? 10, 20, 50, 100 ? I'm sure all will admit BHP has changed massively in the last 50 years (moved in and out of different ores, countries etc). Yet it still amazes me how many are willing to accept predictions/comments/opinions based on a planet that had 100 million, 500 million, 1 billion people.

Half of the world's forests have disappeared at the hand of humankind, three quarters of these in the past 300 years and the majority within the past century. 22% of the total planet land mass is now agricultural areas. Go back 100 years and that figure drops in single digits.

At some point the game changes so much that the old rules simply don't apply (or fit). The warm/iceage cycle would simply repeat if the global population was under 100 million people.

I'm also surprised (given we are all investors) we don't accept the idea of bargaining. I don't believe in the alarmist ideas... but am happy to see them being raised as I know they will be watered down, if you start with only moderate ideas you end with cat piss agreement.

IMO (as I said last week) we can stick with the current global population IF we lower the impact of it (i.e. take 6.5 billion people back to effects caused by 3-4 billion).

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 14 2009, 06:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mosaic,

Read my post again (including those from last week). Nowhere I have proposed we have reached the world’s population capacity. What I am proposing is the rapid population growth affects the usefulness of the historic data when trying to create models.

A system with 1 billion people VS a system with 6 billion people.. will both systems act in the exact same matter? The idea we can predict how the world works now is based on how it worked when it only had 1/2, 1/3, 1/6, or even 1/1000 of its current population.

As to acid rain, “I don't understand why it will become a problem if it isn't already”

It’s about time between gas release and rainfall. Most of the sources of nitrous oxide aren’t in the tropics, hence the time between gas release and rainfall can be days (or even weeks). Within that time the nitrous oxide dissipates into the higher atmosphere (above the rain clouds). If you increase the rainfall (side effect of warming) you decrease the time for dissipation and also trap it at the lower altitudes.... aka more acidic rain near nitrous oxide sources.

Mark,
“Knowing a bit about solar and costs your estimate of the cost is I suspect about 10% of the actual.”

8 million households, 22 million Australians, Economy of scale for ordering 8 million systems + Technology advances due over the next 10 years. Feel free to do the sums.

$450 X 22 Million = $9,900,000,000 (factor a little population growth and round up to $10 billion)
$10 billion X 10 years = $100 billion
Based on the size of the order, the Australian government simply buys the Chinese factory/company (cutting out all the middle men cost and profit margins). Now you can’t tell me the base cost price to produce, ship and install panels is more than $12,500 per household.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 14 2009, 02:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mosaic,

It's pretty clear which side of the fence you sit, care to justify why you believe 6.5 billion are having no major effect on the world at large ?

Being a man of the land what happens when you double the number of cows in a paddock? Now tripe or quadtripe the number of cows... what happens now? What happens to a over farmed paddock, does it recover straight away or does it take a long time?

All the models are based on past events... the past when the world population was 1, 2 or even 3 billion. Compare apples with apples, not apples with oranges.

Earth has some very complex and wonderful systems that for the large part balance everything out... over time. What the world took a millennia to do (locking away CO2 in oil), we reverse in two centuries (the combustion of that oil). At some point we unbalance the system, we can either find out where that point is... try to stop just before we hit it.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 14 2009, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

If we increase the levels of methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide & ozone we increase the temperature. Increase temperature and you increase the % of water vapour. Then you get a runaway effect, the saturated air allows you to trap even more heat and so on... aka the Tropics.

Now I hear you say the Tropics aren’t that bad... the increased rainfall and heat will help plant life which in turn helps coverts and capture CO2. This is all very true but we are forgetting what’s in the rain, when the water vapour combines with these gas molecules (especially nitrous oxide) you get drum roll... acid rain.

Start changing the PH of the soil too much and that plant life will die. So now we have the Tropics... minus the plant life (btw did I mention that rotting plants release CO2 ?)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 14 2009, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

“Other things despite being a believer I am sceptical about the whole process. After recent scares from Y2K which was bunkum to SAR's then birds flu then swine flue to any other scare mongering they can conjure up .... what are the real impacts and what is the relative importance of any of this.”

Y2K didn’t occur BECAUSE we spent millions of dollars rewriting the code, if we did nothing... squish, the truck would have hit us
SARS didn’t kill millions BECAUSE we took action and increased hygiene levels, quanteened, etc if we did nothing... squish, the truck would have hit us
Swine flu... well happy to admit that was just hype, it was nothing more than a normal strain of the flu
Just quickly on SARS and Swine flu... the real issue was if both combined, if they did you would get a highly lethal (SARS part), highly contagious (Swine part) flu.

Because we dodge a bullet doesn’t mean the bullet wasn’t deadly. Global warming is a bullet... we can argue all day “who” fired the bullet OR take steps to try and dodge it.

$450 per Australian, for 10 years would cover the cost to make every Australian household 100% solar powered. Out of sunlight hours the load would easily be covered by wave, wind, hydro and geothermal.

That’s coal and gas power emissions removed, for a mere $450 per year. Given the panels last 20 years, if you spread the cost over the product life time... $225 per year. Forget global warming for a second, how much does the pollution caused by our coal and gas cost our health system?

The only reason why Australia isn’t serious about solar is it would hurt our coal industry....

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 11 2009, 02:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Is the world getting warmer ? Yes
Is this just one of the natural cycles ? Unknown
Do 6 billion people have a impact on the natural environment ? Yes

1000 = 275 million people
1500 = 450 million people
1804 = 1000 million people
1900 = 1600 million people
1950 = 2550 million people
1999 = 6000 million people
2006 = 6500 million people

For me it’s a no brainer, humans should try and lower their impact on the natural environment. You can’t go from 1.6 billion people to 6.5 billion people in around 100 years and not have any effects on the world at large (including temp). How can ANY data from 1950 be compared with data from 2006 when the human population has doubled within that timeframe? It’s like comparing Apples with Oranges. We’ll know 50 years IF the world could handle 6.5 billion people, but in the mean time why not try and bring the effect of 6.5 billion people back to 1960’s levels ? The earth seemed to handle 3 billion people ok based on what we know now.

As to the ETS, again it’s a no brainer and I’ll explain why... petrol excise tax.

Within 10 years the petrol engine will have gone the way of the dinosaur, good for the environment... bad for the government UNLESS it plugs the 16-18 billion dollar petrol excise hole. The Australian working population is 10.6 million (within another 10 years based on the aging population this maybe below 10 million).

So to plug the hole from petrol excise tax you need to increase taxes by around $1600 per year. There are also other tax income holes that need plugging, i.e. the effect on coal exports and so on.

Now depending on who you believe the ETS “cost” varies widely... it also depends on the level of cuts that are “yet” to be agreed. Based on all the info I can gather and process a figure seems to be around $2000-2100 per working Australian.

$1600 vs $2050... add in some other holes that need plugging and we get closer and closer to 1:1.

If a ETS was introduced tomorrow are the government double dipping ?.. sure, big time
Jump in the time machine and go to 2020 are the government double dipping ?.. no

The amount of hurt caused by this double dipping really depends on how quickly we change the economy (from burning to absorbing). The issue shouldn’t be ETS or not... the issue should be HOW do we help speed up the change the economy... using those double dipped funds would go a long way (and that should be what we are asking the Government... what are you planning to do with those extra funds?)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

“Don't assume that because members don't post here on other stocks that this is their only holding”

One word... “Image”
If you post over and over again about only one share what “image” do you think your projecting to others that read your posts ?
If a group of people do the same what “image” do you think is projected about the stock ?

Right or wrong “image” is an important factor that should be managed.

“Many stocks barely get a mention here, certainly some of the other one's I hold”
If no one is willing to light the spark and toss the odd log in then guess what happens, nothing.

Anyhow I won’t say anymore on the subject as this is drifting into off topic.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Sorry I meant Shareholder Info session, either-other the core of the message remains the same.

Tocs, Chicken and the Egg, Someone has to start the discussion for there to be a discussion.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Dec 7 2009, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"SLA's going to be commin home strong by 9 December...."

I really shouldn't but some here really need some perspective.

Those that have played this game before know that AGM's very rarely live up to the hype. Discloser rules make it very hard for companies to release anything "new" at AGMs (as you have to release the information to those at the AGM and the market at large at the exact same time). Excluding that most don't release anything new in the week before the AGM as they are focused on preparing for the AGM itself (you can't do too many things at once).

People should be asking what happens on the 10/12 and not 9/12. What happens when nothing "new" is released the day before? Even if "sales" are announced between now and the 10/12 it's almost a sure bet that a selloff will occur, people seem to forget the level of stale bulls in this stock and furthermore the normal nature of buy on rumour, sell on fact.

How many here have a trading plan for SLA? There must be some point in which you would sell or buy more. I wouldn't be surprised if most had no plan other than "Hold for a 10 bagger"

SLA isn't the only ASX share with a "possible" profit shattering product. A high level of "blindness" seems to have occurred on this topic, this can be seen in the simple fact that if you look at the last 20 or so posters you'd be surprised to find more than an couple that post about another share. Don't get me wrong this type of "blindness" occurs on many other topics (it's normally caused by being overweight in the stock) that said it's never wise to make blind decisions.

I challenge everyone here to spend an hour or so this week researching ANOTHER stock and after that make a post on its topic. The action will either help justify your current position, or give reason to change it. Don't want to take the challenge, no problems... but it's worth highlighting that a lot of people would class a number of posters here as "rampers" as they post over and over again daily about the same stock.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Nov 20 2009, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

While not 100% on topic, very useful hence the FYI

Google yesterday released their updated "Real Estate" Google maps menu.

Go to http://maps.google.com.au/ and then simply search on the word "Real Estate"

As you scroll around it will automatically update the listing for each area

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Nov 18 2009, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Without wanting to sound rude, you can work that out very easily by trying yourself (but the short answer is yes you can upload .doc)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Nov 18 2009, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"(I do understand though, some readers need to be protected from themselves when they haven't configured Excel's safety features...)"

Bingo... On another forum, many years ago someone uploaded a .xls containing a macro virus and it caused some serious issues.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Nov 18 2009, 02:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Csv’s don’t contain macros hence there’s no issue with them. The issue with XLS’s is they may contain macro based viruses.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Nov 16 2009, 10:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

I have been watching small caps for over a decade and throughout that time I’ve learnt one major lesson, people expect too much from small listed companies.

Put the SP & Technology aside for a second and look at a company from the headcount/workload point of view. These small caps are nothing more than well funded small companies. Headcounts under a dozen full time people aren’t uncommon, more so people often share multiple job tasks and/or aren’t professionally skilled in those tasks (i.e. they work on preparing company reports but don’t hold degree in finance or accounting). With that mind mistakes are made and targets of often missed.

Furthermore experience comes at a cost and with that in mind you’ll often find experience lacking in small companies (i.e. they don’t have the money to hire a team that has obtained FDA approval before, completed phase 2 trials before, etc). It’s a case of “On the job” training and hence steps are missed, forms aren’t submitted correctly and more importantly timelines are overly ambitious.

All that said, it’s worth remembering you’re an investor not a customer (investors want results, customers want service). It is also worth remembering that you can sell now and buy again later. The idea you may miss out buying again at a low price ignores that gaps normally always close, shares are lucky to change by more than 20% per day and that you could be making profits elsewhere in the meantime.

Anyhow enough from me, I’ve bit my tongue for a long while but after seeing the same issue over and over again (with multiple small caps, especially biotech’s) I had to say something.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Nov 13 2009, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Power Point – UPS – PC Hardware

Power flows from the power point into the UPS, then out of the UPS into the PC Hardware.

If the power flow from the power point is cut, power still flows out of the UPS into the PC Hardware if the PC hardware is on.. if it’s off the power remains in the UPS.

A UPS is just like the battery in a laptop, to be honest most people don’t have a UPS anymore because they have a laptop has their main PC (hence they have power for an hour or so if a blackout occurs)

Also UPS’s die over time (i.e they normally last 3-5 years) as they are basically just a re-chargeable battery, a motorbike battery to be exact.

With that in mind I think a really important question has been missed, why do you want a UPS ? If it’s for trading, even if the ADSL router is connected to the UPS you may still lose internet connection (as the upstream connection may be effected by the same power outage)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Nov 11 2009, 08:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Forrest,

Sorry I forgot the easiest and quickest fix, run one account via IE and the other by FF (from memory your a Chrome user, so try one account via Chrome and the other via IE)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Nov 11 2009, 06:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Run as" should resolve that issue the exact same way Forrest, that said you'd have to make sure all the HKLU registry keys exist for that user aswell.

Either that or just run a VM

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Nov 3 2009, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Japan, how about India ?

China's export-led manufacturing boom is largely a creation of foreign direct investment (FDI), which effectively serves as a substitute for domestic entrepreneurship.

The "Made in China" label obscures an important point, few of these products are made "for" (when you trace it back) indigenous Chinese companies. In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a single homegrown Chinese firm that operates on a global scale and markets its own products abroad... Anyone ?

The FDI gap has a side effect in India, it seems to have spawned local strong entrepreneurship. All of the top 10 Indian firms are wholly private initiatives, while most of the Chinese companies have significant state involvement.

India displays every bit as much dynamism as China... but the major difference is the level of FDI (it's like 9:1) but this is changing... and hence the idea that Chinese growth is a given, seems to ignore India's position. It is worth remembering that India's economic reforms only began in 1991, more than a decade after China began liberalizing. Also the financial and legal system in Indian operate with greater efficiency and transparency than do China's.

IMO when the FDI ratio is 1:1 (or even well before that) you'll see the effects of the above on China's growth

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Oct 2 2009, 11:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Its not a "touchy" subject, its a simple case of here we go again (the same issues get raised over and over again).

So you own 2.4 (residential / commercial), first off you can't live in "commercial" property so it makes no sense to include them in a housing supply debate. Now exclude holiday houses (long debate, search for past posts on the subject). Now how many of those "residential" properties are empty? Why are they empty, is the requested rent too high, is there employment chances in the areas around them and so on.

"The reason why I'm asking for feedback from folks from the lack of 'non' supply side story, is I would like to hear the opinions from that side of the fence, that as of this point, has not been forthcoming."

2 of the 3 reasons I listed had nothing to do with supply/oversupply, so I'll repeat them again but in even more basic terms.

Households in the last two decades have gone from (on average) single to dual incomes. More money, more ability to service debt. Housing prices are effected by two main factors... supply and ability to service debt.

Ability to service debt is controlled by three main factors, income, employment and interest rates.

Incomes are increasing (not only that more households are becoming dual income)
Employment is steady (we are unlikely to see US/UK levels of unemployment)
Interest rates are low (and unlike the US/UK, banks here priced increased rates into peoples ability to service debt)

The press go on and on about how people couldn't handle rate increases but if you did a audit of their spending I' sure almost all could (push comes to shove, people give up the foxtel, eating out and so on)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Oct 2 2009, 07:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"If your prognosis has to do with a housing shortage, please do not bother to respond. "

So you only want an answer that already agrees with your limited understanding ? LOL. I wish that worked on my wife.

While it may take a good 2 hours (there's around 900 posts), browse back to the begining of the topic and start reading from there, make note of anyone making a prediction or claim (so you can see with hindsight if it came true or was right).

As to answering your question with one hand tied by my back...

  • Australia’s population is growing at a rate of 2.1% per year (compared with growth rates from five years ago of 1.2%).
  • Very long hours has become more common for full time workers in the last two decades, 30% of men and 16% of women now work 50 hours or more per week.
  • The proportion of women who participate in the work force has increased, from 48% in 1992 to 55% in 2006 (it is suggested the 2009 figure is now over 60%).

So population growth has almost doubled in 5 years (oh sorry can't suggest increased demand and hence a possible shortage), real wages have increased due to people working longer hours (median wage doesn't include overtime/bonuses hence it doesn't correctly reflect income) and lastly the ever increaing effect of dual incomes.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 14 2009, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Analysis by researchers from South Australia's Flinders University has revealed home ownership in the 10 years from 1996 rose only 0.8 per cent despite strong economic growth and low interest rates in that period."

They fail to disclose home ownership in Australia is still well above that of most western countries (it's like complaining that a SP rose only by 0.8% and failing to point out that the SP is at record highs)

"Dr Flood and his team assessed Census data to conclude that Australia's housing market is in "a very dangerous and unstable situation which has received little adverse attention"."

First off the census data is two and a half years old (if I quoted from source 2.5 years ago most people would tell me the world has changed) but more importantly the census data has a number of key issues i.e. holiday houses and how they are counted as empty dwellings within the census.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 11 2009, 08:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hovercars here we come....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090909/sc_livescience/micelevitatedinlab ://http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience...levitatedinlab

Scientists have now levitated mice using magnetic fields.

Other researchers have made live frogs and grasshoppers float in mid-air before, but such research with mice, being closer biologically to humans, could help in studies to counteract bone loss due to reduced gravity over long spans of time, as might be expected in deep space missions or on the surfaces of other planets.

Scientists working on behalf of NASA built a device to simulate variable levels of gravity. It consists of a superconducting magnet that generates a field powerful enough to levitate the water inside living animals, with a space inside warm enough at room temperature and large enough at 2.6 inches wide (6.6 cm) for tiny creatures to float comfortably in during experiments.

The researchers first levitated a young mouse, just three-week-old and weighing 10 grams. It appeared agitated and disoriented, seemingly trying to hold on to something.

"It actually kicked around and started to spin, and without friction, it could spin faster and faster, and we think that made it even more disoriented," said researcher Yuanming Liu, a physicist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. They decided to mildly sedate the next mouse they levitated, which seemed content with floating.

A plastic cage was also designed by physicist Da-Ming Zhu at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, to keep the mice in during levitation. Its top remained open to let in air, food, water and video surveillance, and its bottom was filled with small holes to allow waste removal.

From time to time, mice would kick the walls of the cage, causing it to briefly drop off from the levitation zone before re-entering it and floating again.

Although the researchers could levitate mice with or without the cage, "it's easier to house a mouse in a cage when you bring it to the levitation zone," Liu explained. Also, if you want to run an experiment comparing mice living inside and outside the levitator, you want to set up exactly the same living conditions to match results up as best as possible.

Results

Repeated levitation tests showed the mice, even when not sedated, could quickly acclimate to levitation inside the cage. After three or four hours, the mice acted normally, including eating and drinking. The strong magnetic fields did not seem to have any negative impacts on the mice in the short term, and past studies have shown that rats did not suffer from adverse effects after 10 weeks of strong, non-levitating magnetic fields.

"We're trying to see what kind of physiological impact is due to prolonged microgravity, and also what kind of countermeasures might work against it for astronauts," Liu said. "If we can contribute to the future human exploration of space, that would be very exciting." They are now applying for funding for such research with their levitator.

The researchers also levitated water drops up to 2 inches wide (5 cm). This suggests the variable gravity simulator could be used to study how liquids behave under reduced gravity, such as how heat is transferred or how bubbles behave.

Liu, Zhu and their colleagues detailed their findings online Sept. 6 in the journal Advances in Space Research.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Sep 10 2009, 02:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Tylergold,

A mate and I did the exact same thing (selling drinks at high school). We started for one simple reason.. the drink vending machine was dodgy and ate dollar coins (we complained but nothing came of it). We also got creative, people wanted COLD cans hence one day after school we wired two spare lockers to power two little car fridges (this also allowed us to sell cold choc bars).

It may sound funny but that lead to the creation of a BBS (Bulletin Board System, we are talking 15 years ago... back in the dark ages of the internet). I had 50 phone lines running into my bedroom and 256k ISDN link to the internet. The BBS became an ISP and after a year or two I sold it all for a profit.

That profit was invested into the market (and a car) and after a couple years those funds grew to large house deposit.

Cheers
Matt

BTW As Balance said.. don’t get caught.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Sep 9 2009, 05:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

As they say "Location, Location, Location"

The "Sydney CBD" market was flooded with new construction in 2007 (hence the sudden jump Jan 08). 9.1% rental vacancy is double that of the Sydney norm (4.4%)

Lets break Sydney apart..
Canterbury-Bankstown 2.3%
Eastern Suburbs 6.3%
Inner West 5.3%
Liverpool 1.3%
Lower North Shore 8.8%
Parramatta 3.6%
South Western Sydney 2.1%
Upper North Shore 5.7%
Western Sydney 1.9%

For those that understand the Australian property market is bigger then one city..
Canberra 1.5%
Darwin 1.8%
Brisbane 2.3%
Adelaide 1.7%
Hobart 1.2%
Melbourne 4.2%
Perth 1.8%

QUOTE
If someone is going to make the plunge then they need to do a massive amount of research from unbiased and independant sources first as there is a lot of spin out there..


They also need to question those that seem to be selectively picking statistics to backup their viewpoint

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 24 2009, 11:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"This explains how the ABS can list 800,000 dwellings as vacant, but we still have a "housing shortage""

I hate to repeat myself so I'll simple say... scroll down the page to Aug 10 2009.

It all boils down to requirements, a vacant holiday house in Nelson Bay isn't a practical living location for anyone thats working in Sydney's CBD.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 24 2009, 12:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Not surprised...

ASX loses supervisory powers to ASIC
http://business.smh.com.au/business/asx-lo...90824-evlt.html

After the blow-outs of brokers Opes Prime and Tricom, the Federal Government has moved to take away supervision of Australia's largest licensed brokers from the Australian Securities Exchange. In a statement today, the Federal Government announced the Australian Securities and Investments Commission will in the future be responsible for supervising brokers who trade in financial markets.

This includes brokers trading in all listed and unlisted securities - including those trading on the Australian stock exchange and the Sydney Futures Exchange.

These last two markets were previously the domain of the ASX's market supervision arm....

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 12 2009, 11:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Her spree added up to more than the listed retailer's pre-tax earnings in the 2008 financial year of $17.3 million."

I could understand BHP, CBA, etc not noticing a missing $20m but a company who's pre-tax earnings was $17.3m...sorry management have big case to answer.

If it was over 10 years one could partly understand... but 18 months, thats an average of $1.1m per month.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Aug 10 2009, 10:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
And just on the note about the scepticism about the number of vacant homes. Head down to the mornington peninsula in the depths of winter. The number of empty hoiliday homes is somewhat higher than 10% in the backblocks of Rye it would approach 25%. There would be other holiday areas throughout the country with a similar level.


QUOTE
Similarly in some country areas. In the area in which I live, farms that have multiple homes on them, often with at least on empty, is not an uncommon occurrence.


Hi Mick,

As I said "I've covered this before (i.e. listed multiple factors that account for this figure)"... yes one of the factors was holiday properties.

The issue is IMO people use the 830,000 vacant dwellings figure in an effort to argue against further urban construction (i.e. why build 100,000 houses when 830,000 are vacant). Most holiday houses, would be useless as primary living location as they are located nowhere near major employment.

Take NSW for example, 300 vacant dwellings in Wollongong would have little to no TRUE effect on dwelling demand in Parramatta. Both locations are separated by around 1.5 hours travel time (hence living in Wollongong but working in Parramatta isn't really viable).

I've raised multiple times that country wide or even state wide statistics are almost useless for showing suburb based property supply/demand.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 10 2009, 07:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

First off Mick, "If your mortgage goes up by $20 a week, your wages may need to go up by $40 a week or more just to break even."

Sorry but IMO your making the same error lot of people in this topic make, single income vs dual incomes. The Australian family structure has changed in the last 10-15 years hence people need to factor that into their models (once you do the property prices start to make more sense, those that don't still can't work out why the bubble hasn't already popped)

QUOTE
1. Check with the ABS, 800,000 vacant homes in Australia. FACT!


Mags, spend a couple of minutes and discover how the ABS come up with that statistic (just like unemployment I believe you will be shocked at how the data is obtained).

To quote from the ABS
"The 2006 Census also identified 830,000 vacant dwellings, representing 9.85 per cent of the total dwelling stock."

I've covered this before (i.e. listed multiple factors that account for this figure) but IMO it's worth posing the question… 1 in 10 dwellings, how many here truly believe this figure? Mags ?

On any given Saturday, find an average street with houses on both sides, walk down the odd side of the street starting at number 1 and stop at number 11. Did you pass a house that looked vacant ? Walk down to number 21, did pass 2 houses that look vacant ? What's more likely… 1 in 10 houses are vacant OR 1 in 10 houses failed to complete the 2006 Census ?

QUOTE
2. Persons per residence has continued to fall over the last x number of years.


Care to back that with some sources? The average data (excluding VIC) I've seen shows an increase in "people per dwelling" over the past 10 years.

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jul 28 2009, 12:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

It's TA like that, that IMO gives TA a bad name.

The whole thing reads like he's been locked in a room for months with market data but nothing else. What’s more important to a company’s SP… profit/loss or index drag?. With this in mind IMO it’s important to at least review the news and/or perform simple FA on those companies that make up the index (McHugh doesn’t seem to factor the general business news and/or government policy).

QUOTE
Back in the Great Depression of 1929 through the 1930's, we saw a similar Zig-zag pattern. There was a crash in 1929, followed by a nice rally, but then the most devastating part of the market collapse followed into the 1930's. That Bear Market was a Supercycle degree wave (IV). This one is one degree larger, which means it should be worse.


IMO a prime example of looking at the numbers and not the news. The major difference between 1930 and 2009 is government intervention. The debt caused by this intervention will have its own effect, but not in any of the timeframes McHugh seems to be looking at.

TA works great if most the factors remain the same…

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Macro Factors

mminion
Posted on: Jul 27 2009, 10:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
Next week will be the real key, month end and TA wise (happy for other TA views, Arty ?) if we can hold these highs until then I think its "all on"


27-07-2009 4139.60 4,171,086,644 996,753,458
24-07-2009 4089.80 5,280,990,499 1,185,100,549
23-07-2009 4064.10 6,101,109,857 1,190,213,440
22-07-2009 4068.50 4,757,045,872 1,047,096,742
21-07-2009 4050.70 3,909,542,528 915,770,813
20-07-2009 4050.30 3,345,698,325 818,167,644
17-07-2009 4000.80 3,503,318,159 846,357,955
16-07-2009 3995.60 5,092,259,521 1,103,972,917
15-07-2009 3924.50 3,787,024,282 926,942,838
14-07-2009 3867.10 3,582,922,435 794,070,067
13-07-2009 3737.50 3,048,830,346 744,299,894

16 & 17 (within 5 points)
20 & 21 (within 5 points)
22 & 23 (within 5 points)

Looking back to me it seems VERY controlled, that said today seems to have run a little to hard (I'd suggest tomorrow a close between 4130-4150)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Macro Factors

mminion
Posted on: Jul 24 2009, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Blueice,

The Dow Futures are improving (wouldn't be surprised to see it go positive around lunch time here)

Microsoft is down (IMO) because they are between main product launches hence low sales (Windows 7 is launched next month)
Amex is down (IMO) because people are paying cards late. Worth nothing AMEX has been a bright star on Wall Street for the last 6 months hence people have been looking for anything slightly negative to pull it back.

Next week will be the real key, month end and TA wise (happy for other TA views, Arty ?) if we can hold these highs until then I think its "all on"

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Macro Factors

mminion
Posted on: Jul 21 2009, 12:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

http://twitter.com/reliveapollo11

Minute by minute (plus 40 years) transcription of the radio chatter (including links to the photos they took at that exact time)

BTW, It's not been well reported but Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) took a number of high-resolution photos of the Apollo landing sites (this between July 11 and 15, 2009). Maybe final proof to those that believe it was all filmed in Hollywood.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/LRO/mult...pollosites.html

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 14 2009, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
All of the above support those "positive vibes" from the index options series expiring on the 16th that I've explained earlier,
suggesting XJO should open above 3850, possibly close to (but unlikely above) 3900.


And what after ? if it opens at 3850 and closes 3900 we talking a run to 4000+ ?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Macro Factors

mminion
Posted on: Jul 6 2009, 09:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In the real world it’s a risky suggestion to ignore ANY statistic, ignoring the ABS because you don’t like what your hearing… well that your decision.

Jobs Ads.. So we are now following the ANZ job index? Two words, the internet. As I said back in April

QUOTE
ANZ job index, it's based on the number of jobs "listed". It's old world thinking that a job is "listed" only once when these days a single job can be listed by multiple recruitment companies as it costs next to nothing to place a AD on the internet. The lost of a single job can be reflected by a drop of 3,4 or even 5 "listings".

The world's changed, it amazes me how many people are sticking to 20, 30 year old models.


QUOTE
As i said, " I have no doubt that the Housing Market will crash within the next few years." then we will see who is right and who is wrong.


No problems, how about quantifying that the above means to you (to most people the above means, 30%+ in 3-4 years)

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jul 5 2009, 09:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
Equally, if you are not shorting the stock market now you will be missing out on a lot of gains.


Ditto on the above...

markco2 seems to believe “Armageddon” is still yet to happen. The ASX (and other world indexes) bounced in Feb, but if you read the papers you would never know it (because armageddon sells papers hence that’s how the issue is still being reported).

QUOTE
If casual employment continues to decrease at its current level there can only be a few places left for them.


“Australian Labour Market Statistics, Jul 2009” (released last Friday by the ABS)

Part-Time employment INCREASED this quarter (0.6%). Now Part-Time employment as a proportion of total employment increased as well (0.2%) but a rate less than therefore it can’t be claimed that the employment increase is only due to jobs changing from “full” to “part” time.

QUOTE
Therefore Australia becomes an even higher geared welfare country relying on government handouts whilst racking up colossal debt to pass on down to our future generations.


Colossal ? When you compare debt to GDP, Australia's debt isn't that great. If you want to see colossal debt, compare America’s debt to GDP.

Markco2 we’ll see who’s right in 6 months time.

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jul 4 2009, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
If we are talking about housing affordability, then really, we should be no more than 3.5 times avge annual income for a house.
That figure is for a single income family. Not dual income.

Most REIT's use the argument that it should be based on dual income because in many households that is the case to pay of the mortgage.

Well, all i can say is a future reality check on Dual Income will become far less the "Norm" with rising unemployment.


A extra 2% increase in unemployment (i.e. to the predicted 7.5-8.0%) would be far from effecting the "norm". If anything the predicted 7.5-8.0% from early this year is starting to look a little off the mark (i.e. high) given speed of correction in most world economies.

QUOTE
Whilst the unemployment figures are not particularly high at this stage, its the hidden unemployment in the way of casuals that are a real alarming concern for the future.


Without wanting to sound rude, casuals can't afford to buy houses. Any increase in casual unemployment is more likely to affect rental prices/demand (which is already high). Both the rental & FHO on average share the same property sector (low price housing) hence FHO are currently IMO soaking up any drop in rental property demand. As the FHO grants finish, demand for rental will increase… it's see-saw.

It's worth browsing over the last 12 months of this topic, based on the claims of some… unemployment should be double digits now, housing should be down 15-20%. We also had to follow the US/UK housing price fall…. just because.

As I've said a number times, the Australian housing market is controlled by two major factors, employment and interest rates. It looks more and more unlikely that unemployment will spike this year, and interest rates look to remain steady (bar banks increasing to maintain profit margins).

At some point people will accept dual incomes into their pricing models… until then I suggest buying a pillow (to lower the damage caused by head banging)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jul 2 2009, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Australian Median House Prices Recouping Losses, Review Reports

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s median house price has recouped almost all of last year’s losses and is nearing a new high, the Australian Financial Review reported, citing RP Data.

The median national house price rose to A$468,819 ($378,337) in May and is A$520 short of the peak reached in February 2008, the newspaper said. Prices in all capital cities except Perth have risen since January, the report said.

__________________________________________________________________________

Back in Feb I posted a Four Bears graph, it's worth noting its been updated and the picture is worth a thousand words (focus on the blue line)



Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jun 23 2009, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

$10m to buy and another, $15-20m to support over the next 12 months.

I'm surprised a VC hasn't picked up the pieces, with an aim to on sell within the next 1-2 years.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Jun 23 2009, 03:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

The below is from Wikipedia

QUOTE
The ex-dividend date is the date, preceding the "owner of record date" allowing for the settlement period. The ex-dividend date is typically two trading days before the record date. Therefore, in order to receive the upcoming dividend payment payout, you must own or must purchase the stock prior to the ex-dividend date. In most countries, when you buy or sell any stock, there is a three trading-day settlement period on your order; if you purchase a stock on Thursday, the purchase does not settle until Tuesday. The same applies when you sell a stock.

Example of how a company would announce its dividend payout: Company XYZ announced today that its quarterly cash distribution of $0.10 per share will be paid on April 15, 2009 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 31, 2009.

From the example above, the record date is Tuesday March 31, 2009, and the ex-dividend date is Friday March 27, 2009. To be a shareholder of record on Tuesday March 31, 2009, you must purchase the stock before the ex-dividend date. In this case, you must have purchased XYZ stock on or before Thursday March 26, 2009 and not have sold it until or after Friday March 27, 2009.

You must be a stockholder on the record date to receive the dividend payment and you only have to own the stock for one day to be entitled to receive the dividend payment. The dividend payout will be deposited into your account on the payout date. In the example above, that date would be April 15, 2009.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jun 23 2009, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Gibraltar Airport's single runway is one of very few in the world (and certainly the largest example) to intersect a public road. That's correct: a public road. Operating similarly to a train crossing, traffic travelling along Winston Churchill Avenue in Gibraltar is brought to a halt each time a plane either lands or takes-off.

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 18 2009, 04:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Snatch Wars

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDKiQfBs9lo

P.S. Take your mind out of the gutter, it's not what you think.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 18 2009, 10:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Canava (and others)

To be blunt, if you want to ride on the results of 621 (and other AAH IP) you could buy some Cephalon shares.

If "compulsory acquisition" fails there's other plays (asset strip, merger etc)... the game was "really" over at 51%.

As to other opportunities, given my position I don't publicly post like that anymore.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Jun 17 2009, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Do yourself a favour, It's over... accept it and move on.

Any challenge will take a lot of time, cause stress and burn money. Even if the challenge is successfully it's highly likely the decision will be appealed by the other party. Legal action like this takes YEARS to resolve.

The market is full of opportunities, don't miss them by stewing over the past in court.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Jun 17 2009, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"I mean who calls up brokers these days to do transactions when you can simply do it online quicker"

It's a risk thing..
Trader: Buy XXX, 10000 @ 13.20
Operator: Placing Buy XXX, 10000 @ 13.20
Operator: Sorry the SP is @ 1.32
Trader: Yeah sorry, I meant Buy XXX, 10000 @ 1.32
Trader: Bought XXX, 10000 @ 1.32

If the SP is REALLY 1.32 and not 13.20 the back and forth normally points that out. Also points out incorrect codes and volumes.

When your doing dozens of trades per day, the numbers start bluring together.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jun 17 2009, 11:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Disappointed with last night episode (the final).

The whole series IMO focused too much on the personal issues.... and too little on trading/making money.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jun 11 2009, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415



One day, in line at the company cafeteria, Joe says to Mike behind him, 'My elbow hurts like hell. I guess I'd better see a Doctor.'

'Listen, you don't have to spend that kind of money,' Mike replies. 'There's a diagnostic computer down at Bunnings Hardware.Just give it a urine sample and the computer will tell you what's wrong and What to do about it.

It takes ten seconds and costs ten dollars .... . . A lot cheaper than a Doctor.'

So, Joe deposits a urine sample in a small jar and takes it to Bunnings.

He deposits ten dollars, and the computer lights up and asks for the urine sample. He pours the sample into the slot and waits.

Ten seconds later, the computer ejects a printout:

'You have tennis elbow. Soak your arm in warm water and avoid heavy activity. It will improve in two weeks.
Thank you for shopping @ Bunnings.'

That evening, while thinking how amazing this new technology was,

Joe began wondering if the computer could be fooled.

He mixed some tap water, a stool sample from his dog, urine samples from his wife and daughter, and a sperm sample for good measure.

Joe hurries back to Bunnings, eager to check the results.

He deposits ten dollars, pours in his concoction, and awaits the results.

The computer prints the following:

1. Your tap water is too hard. Get a water softener. (Aisle 9)
2. Your dog has ringworm. Bathe him with anti-fungal shampoo. (Aisle 7)
3. Your daughter has a cocaine habit. Get her into rehab.
4. Your wife is pregnant. Twins. They aren't yours. Get a solicitor.
5. If you don't stop playing with yourself, your elbow will never get better!
Thank you for shopping @ Bunnings
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 5 2009, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Moosey,

Are you watching a HD (High-definition), SD (Standard-definition) or Analog channel ?
Do you have SS (surround sound) ?

In short the issue is SS verse plain stereo and the switching between the two.

Most HD/SD shows are broadcast in SS. Most Australian commerical are broadcast in stereo. You can get the same issue when you flick from TEN HD (now called "One") to ABC 1 or SBS 1.... as 9-10 times you are flicking from SS to stereo sound.

To "hear" SS audio better on TV's that only have two speakers people turn the volume up..... bang comes a stereo AD and yes it's louder then the show.

If you have SS setup (or you have a TV that "auto adjusts" volume) you won't notice the issue.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 3 2009, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
Loved the 65 year old who put in a phone order to buy 800 shares and 10 seconds later says...." Oh did I say buy... I meant sell 800"

He made a nice little loss for the group in his 10 second brain explosion...


Started to think he was averaging down when I heard "Buy 800"... poor fellow.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jun 3 2009, 09:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Forest & BSA,

Have to agree it was interesting viewing. Did you also catch "Million Dollar Traders" on SBS last night ?

In short they gave group of people a million dollars, fortnight of training (many TA) and the show follows them for two months, of which just happened occur at the height of the credit crunch.

http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?showtopic=13052

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jun 3 2009, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
"Eight ordinary people are given a million dollars, a fortnight of intensive training and two months to run their own hedge fund. Can they make a killing?

Watch this video online at SBS: http://player.sbs.com.au/programs#/program...ar-Traders-Ep1/


Anyone else watch it last night? (the link above will start last nights show) At one point I was screaming at the screen, "Just buy something"

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 28 2009, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Sorry without wanting to sound rude, comparing "Housing Debt" with the GDP doesn't really show anything.

It's like walking into coffee shop, asking all the staff what they owe on their home and then comparing that against the shop's yearly turnover.

Debt isn't a "bad" thing, the issues is (IMO) the ability to service that debt. A better stat would be to compare "Housing Debt" and "Household income" between the two countries.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 28 2009, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Home mortgage debt outstanding" & "Housing Debt" are two different figures, it's just one of the many differences between how the Federal Reserve & the ABS collect/display data.

I've highlighted this before in this topic.

Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 25 2009, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Dave_vic_ozz,

"Not at 5km underground. I asked an expert."

What makes you think it was 5km underground? The USGS is showing the quake at 0.0km (they note it's "shallow" so it's not a instrument error). Shallow means hundreds of metres, not thousands (so it's under 1km).

The last "test" occured in the same location and measured 4.3 (and they claimed it was over 1 kiloton).

Anyhow it's a nice way to celebrate the return of short selling..

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: May 25 2009, 02:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"after North Korea apparently conducted a nuclear test"

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recent...baf.php#details

A quake of 4.7 seems to strongly suggest it's no fake. A 5 kiloton nuclear weapon produces a 4.5 quake.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 29 2009, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"Get real mminion, there was no property bubble in Germany."

I'm not talking about bubbles, I'm talking about DIFFERENCES. German property has been flat for 10 years...I'm dead sure if you visit a number of German forums you will find people claiming the property prices will fall simply based on the argument that US, UK, Ireland fell.

Please go and re-read the post I make very clear different factors will effect different markets differently. It's one thing arguing that Australian property prices will correct based on the increases over the past 15 years, it's something totally different arguing that Australian property price will correct because of the US, UK, Ireland property markets.

Based on a simple "increasing price" argument this so called "Australian property bubble" should have popped long before the GFC.... it didn't. The GFC is well and truly here and the "bubble" didn't pop.

The question IMO is simple, will the bubble pop or will the prices hold with little to no growth for a couple of years. With low interest rates, dual incomes etc IMO the answer is simple, the prices will hold will little to no movement.

The only "real" movement we'll see over the next 5-10 years will come from baby boomers

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 29 2009, 11:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
About 20,000 mortgage-holders were more than 90 days behind on their loan at the end of December, compared with 13,000 the year before.

With 8.5 million households (sorry can't find the total number of which are mortgaged) there will always be a % that can't make ends meet. Even if only 1/4 of all households are mortgaged (and I'd suggest the figure is higher), we are only talking about 0.9% are 90 days behind on their loan. Yes the number doubled but it's not at a % of which really has any great effect.

QUOTE
The problem that I see later, is that the "pick" of the properties will be gone.

Duster be careful making such comments, I argued that the quality of what's on offer decreases as the price drops and got told I was plain wrong (I also got told dry grass was sand but that's a different story)

QUOTE
Half the people on this thread don't even own a property - guaranteed. They are praying the arse falls out of it, thinking they can PUNT their way there on a few spec shares.

Totally agree couldn't have said it better myself.

QUOTE
I just believe at this point in time that it is historically overvalued and is due for a correction, especially now that we are in recession and having seen the bubble burst in the US, UK, Ireland, NZ etc.

US, UK & Ireland property markets are all very different to Australia. I could list all the differences again but why bother, the differences are simply ignored in an effort to backup simple comments. I'm sure if we visited a German forum you'd find the same debate (the German property market is holding up nicely compared to US, UK, Ireland).

It's the old saying "Location, Location, Location"... no two properties are the same, no two suburbs are the same, no two cities are the same... no two countries are the same. Different factors effect different markets differently, as share investors we should ALL understand that. The general market mood effects all shares but the macro factors are more important. i.e. If gold is running it can counter act the general market mood when looking at gold based listed companies.

I still shake my head... there's an elephant in the room and everyone keeps ignoring it. It's not about picking the top or the bottom, its about working out what the baby boomers will want (property wise) in 5-10 years as they retire.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 29 2009, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2009/04/best_vid...ou_smile-2.html

QUOTE
This cover of Stand By Me was recorded by completely unknown artists in a street virtual studio all around the world. It all started with a base track—vocals and guitar—recorded on the streets of Santa Monica, California, by a street musician called Roger Ridley. The base track was then taken to New Orleans, Louisiana, where Grandpa Elliott—a blind singer from the French Quarter—added vocals and harmonica while listening to Ridley's base track on headphones. In the same city, Washboard Chaz's added some metal percussion to it.

And from there, it just gets rock 'n' rolling bananas: The producers took the resulting mix all through Europe, Africa, and South America, adding new tracks with multiple instruments and vocals that were assembled in the final version you are seeing in this video. All done with a simple laptop and some microphones.


Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Apr 27 2009, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
Interesting....the suburbs with the least available properties to rent is also the cheapest to rent in. Dents the price/demand theory a bit doesn't it.


LOL... North Shore 8% vs. East Suburbs 5.3% (Last time I checked the East Suburbs on average was more expensive then North Shore). IMO It's just a reflection on the sectors that experienced high job loses in 2008 and where the average worker lived (i.e. Finance sector).

Also I have two issues with these statistics, there are no listed "sources" or description about the "sampling method", furthermore it's all based around "Number of listings". It's not clear what they define a "listing" but one could easily imply they are simply counting the number of properties "listed" on the market for rent and making the assumption that they are current "vacant" (which I'm sure the intelligent reader can see is flawed). I know from experience the RE's hit the phones late last year trying trying to drum up business, listing properties with more then one RE is now the norm... all in a effort to get the best rental price. I'll stick with the ABS figure (the same one the RE are quoting from)

It's the same issue with the ANZ job index, it's based on the number of jobs "listed". It's old world thinking that a job is "listed" only once when our days a single job can be listed by multiple recruitment companies as it costs next to nothing to place a AD on the internet. The lost of a single job can be reflected by a drop of 3,4 or even 5 "listings".

The world's changed, it amazes me how many people are sticking to 20, 30 year old models.

I know many people TRYING to rent, at the coal face it looks very different Jasonjeroo. Even in the eastern suburbs of Sydney it's not that easy, 5.3% isn't the coal face figure.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 27 2009, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Jasonjeroo,

Other then Sydney & Melbourne what's the average % vacancy rate (IMO you're being a little selective trying to prove your viewpoint)

From the same "non-realestate agent sponsored site."
"the vacancies had increased in all capital citires in the year to December, but the rises outside the southern capitals were limited"

http://fantasticone.com/clients/sqmresearch.com.au/pdf/theaustralian230109.pdf
://http://fantasticone.com/clients/sqm...109.pdf

On Sydney, % vacancy rate
Vaucluse 11.4%
Bankstown & Liverpool = 2.0/1.4%

It's yet another example that:
~ High end of the market is under stress YET the medium/low is powering on.
~ Not all cities (or even suburbs) are effected the same way

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 23 2009, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"no better place than Perth where the RE went ballistic up and is now going ballistic down"
LOL.. Stats by themselves NEVER paint the "true" picture

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21...5013244,00.html
THE average price of Perth homes sold at auction has dropped more than $170,000 in the first three months of the year - more than any other capital city.

Shock horror !! But then if you read all of the quotes you hit this one....
"House prices have dropped because more sales are happening in the lower end of the market."

Take 20 houses, 10 over $1m, 10 under $500K.
If you sell 5 over $1m & 3 under $500K the average price moves UP. Average house price of $812K
If you sell 1 over $1m & 7 under $500K the average price moves DOWN. Average house price of $562K

What's a better way of gauging movements ?
Compare all the sales WITHIN a city over a X month window, work out the % change.
Compare all the sales WITHIN a suburb over a X month window, work out the % change. Take all the % change and then average them on city wide level.

Now I'm not saying the ass isn't falling out of the Perth market, what I am saying is people are playing with the stats to sell papers.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 30 2009, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Forrestgump,

Have a watch of this...
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2009/03/24_solid..._seconds-2.html

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Mar 30 2009, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Forrest,

It's nothing to do with writing or erasing... it's flow based (i.e. it's easier to write new data verses accessing old data and rewritting it)

Needless to say it's like comparing a out of tune Ferrari F40 to a tuned Toyota Corolla... yes the F40 isn't going to work as good as it's designed to but it's still going to win hands down.

Cheers Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Mar 30 2009, 11:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Mosaic,

Sorry but it's not a good idea for two reasons, USB bottle neck & wear and tear on the SD.

Now without knowing the exact details of your laptop's HD (IDE/SATA and the rpm of your HD) the odds are it's still quicker then the USB bus. The other issue is wear and tear, SD cards are only rated for couple hundred thousand writes, in most cases you wear out the camera before the the SD (but using it as a HD would wear the SD out very quickly)


SSD are the way to go... you can pickup a 64GB for $239 They are SATA based connections, so there's a good chance you could walk down to the PC shop and have it all installed within 15mins

Cheers

Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Mar 30 2009, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Flower

Unlike the other competitions running, ShareScene's one has on distinct difference... it asks for a reason behind each choice.

Given you have to list a reason, it rules out people are simply "guessing" with no reason at all.

Go back and have a look at the reasons and see if 1. they came true, 2. they had any effect on the SP. I think that would answer a number of your questions.

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 27 2009, 12:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

I have to agree with Arty, your account was short.

If you bought & sold on the same day no issue but your +1 and hence have a day in which you have no funds to settle the buy order.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 25 2009, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/stor...5013951,00.html

Over the top in language (as I keep saying they have to sell papers) but the stats are worth looking at.

"an estimated 7300 new dwellings will be built in Sydney this year, the lowest rate of growth in more than 50 years and roughly a third of the homes built in 2003"

"Melbourne, where an estimated 23,000 new dwellings will be built this year. Across the border in Adelaide - a city boasting a population one quarter of the size of Sydney - about 7500 new homes are scheduled, while Brisbane expects 13,450 new homes to be built"

"With Sydney's population expected to rise by close to 23,000 this year and rental vacancies already running at a mere 1.1 per cent"

As I said it's over the top, BOTH sides are playing with the stats but this article shows something... (I've added the average people per dwelling and popluation growth for Melb)

Sydney
Population increases by 23,000
7300 new dwellings
Now in 2008 the Sydney average people per dwelling figure was 2.61
To maintain that figure 8813 dwellings would need to be constructed, the shortage is 1513.

Melbourne
Population increases by 40,000-41,000
23000 new dwellings
Now in 2008 the Melbourne average people per dwelling figure was 2.4-2.5 (sorry I can't find the exact ABS figure)
To maintain that figure 16,000-16,667 dwellings would need to be constructed, the excess is around 7000.
___________________________________________________________________

Now "scheduled" construction can always been cancelled or stopped if the financials don't work, that said the excess in Melbourne again shows the issues effecting Melbourne (especially the north-west) and how the market conditions are DIFFERENT in each state/city.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 23 2009, 02:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

db,

I give Keen some credit, he sold his house and is now renting (so unlike some he's putting his money where his mouth is).

"the 2007 western consumer mindset transferred to the billions of people in china/india is not sustainable - is it?"

What's your timeframe, 5, 10, 20, 50 years ?
The consumer mindset has only really started for 2.4 billion people, the growth caused by it will sustain the world for decades to come. Ecological the world can't sustain it but one has to hope over the next 10-20 years we work out lot of our environmental issues (or we're all stuffed).

The dark horse IMO is India not China. China is facing the same issue we are facing... a large aging population (it's not the baby boom that caused their issue, it's the one child policy)

We can go around in circles, sustainable or not I think we can agree their consumer mindset will be the driving issue for the world economy over the next 10 years ?

As to, JITP. JIT Production works IF the production is local. People won't want to order then wait 3 months for the product to go from Japan to Australia.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 23 2009, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"he basically says that growth over the past 20yrs has been fuelled by debt rather than productivity"

Are we talking about Australia, the Western World or the whole World ?
What fuelled the Australian economy over the past 20 years (especially the last 10).... resource demand.

Did debt (i.e. from the US/UK) start that demand... Yes
Is debt (i.e. from the US/UK) the only cause for that demand... No

China/Indian account for 1/3 of the worlds population.. their economies may have been kick started by western debt but to say it's currently fuelled by western debt is a little one eyed.

China/India's internal demand is IMO the main reason why GDII didn't start last year, it's also the reason why any resource based economies (AUS) will fair better then financed based (US/UK).

IMO To paint US, UK & AUS all with the same brush shows a lack of accepting what drives each economy and the new world order... China & India (and not the US of A)

Cheer
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 23 2009, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Professor Steve Keen.

First off how many people here looked at his background? Checked his past theories/predictions?

"property prices were likely to fall by 20 per cent in some cities"
The article doesn't cover half of what Prof Keen said on TV. His prediction are based on a unemployment rate of over 15%.

So to accept the 20% drop in property you need to also accept that unemployment rise above 15%.

The two go hand in hand, the issue is I don't think you'll see to many people predicting unemployment OVER 15%

TheFerret (in reply to Friday's question)

QUOTE
So just to make sure I'm clear in what your overall point is, is what your trying say is because of dual incomes house prices will never retrace! is that correct?


No, I'm saying when you take into account "dual Incomes" it part explains the increase in prices over the past 10-20 years (i.e. explains why people have been able to service the debt when single income couldn't). It also lends to how they could service even more debt in the future if prices increase.

QUOTE
My second question is that, if you were in the market to purchase a property, would you do it at the commencement of an economic downturn or would you make that purchase when you believe that the economy is coming out of that downturn?


First off can we agree calling the bottom is next to impossible? Say the market falls 15%, is it better to buy after it falls 10% or 5% after the bottom... it's the same price the only difference is which side of the U you bought on. What if the bottom wasn't really the bottom (i.e. dead cat bounce) and it falls 15%, bounces 5% then falls another 10% ? What if the bottom is only 10%? You could in theory miss the bottom totally by holding out.

Long term is an extra 25K (i.e. $500K, you bought at -10% and not -15%) really that bad? In 10 or 20 years time, will that extra $25K really matter when you look at the worth of the property?

Then there's building, during the next 12 months building costs will drop. It's cheaper to build on this side of the U then the other (so any loss in not waiting for the land to drop in price could be cancelled out by lower building costs). People that have never built don't seem to understand how long it takes, if you believe the market will pickup mid 2010 then you would have to buy the land within the next month or two.

For some time said I'd be waiting until later this year (i.e. spring) before buying... by then employment will be 7-7.5% IMO. I don't believe we will see double digitals unemployment as we started at a lower figure this depression vs last one.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 20 2009, 02:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Duster,

I have no problem with people voicing negative options but when they just repost someone else's material (i.e. a graph, article) I question if they "really" understand it.

The "Median House price for capital cities" graph is missing the average wage line. It's also missing important information like population increase (country to city, O/S immigration & birth rate +20-30 years). It also doesn't take into account how society has changed, dual incomes, the increase in single parents etc.

Lets focus on just ONE of the missing pieces of information from that graph, Dual Incomes

Now before people start going on and on about dual incomes, it's not the 1960s, 70s, 80's... dual incomes are the norm and that's not going to change.

2008
The average male wage in Australia is $62,556 per annum
The average female wage in Australia is A$52,520 per annum.
The average house price in Australia is just over $450K.

Even if you buy a $500K house right now... that's 4.4 times the average DUAL income wage.

By 2019 @ 3% increase (which is low I think we'll agree)
The average male wage in Australia will be around $84,070 per annum
The average female wage in Australia will be around A$70,582 per annum.

In ten years time that $500K purchase will be 3.2 times the average DUAL income wage.

Now try 20 or 30 years as that's the normal loan time frames... That's the thing with property even if it doesn't increase in value, over the years it gets easier to pay it off.

Back to the graph,
Plot the population increase
Construction of new dwellings
Average Wage

If we are going to simply post a graph and say "look at this, this shows why" then let's make sure it shows all the required data to make an informed decision.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 20 2009, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
I can only go off the information you have provided, as usual it was insufficent (I learnt to expect that)


A link that included photos, street address and a map at the bottom... sorry I forgot to vividly describe what was in the photos incase someone couldn't tell the difference between grass and sand, again sorry my mistake.

QUOTE
You think $980,000 is fair value for a property in the middle of nowhere on a coast line with hundreds of kilometers of vacant land.


You've shown more then once a total lack of understanding the SA property market. It's a north facing beach, something that's rare in SA and if you understood how weather/tide worked in SA you'd understand the appeal of a North facing beach. I've never seem someone try so hard to dig themselves out of a hole.... you made a error accept it.

Why do I get the impression you've never owned property? (you've talked about Mum & Dad and a Brother but seemed to ignored any question about if you currently own property)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 20 2009, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Duster,

The water is fine, never seen a shark but have seen lots of dolphins (and the crabbing on the point is very good)

Free standing starts $800-900K... that's just a shack (see below link) and there's a big catch.. you have to knock it down within 10 years and move it back from the water.

They passed a by-law a couple of years ago that means if you sell the buyer has 10 years to move the property back from the water line (everyone else had something like 25 years). All part of a plan to try and move the houses back and open the beach up a little more, around half the properties have been moved back and give it another 10-15 years and they all will be moved back.

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsear...p;tm=1237503212

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 20 2009, 08:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Jasonjeroo,

Thanks for the insightful comment (I've learnt to expect them). What you think is a "massive sand plain" is just a paddock of dry grass.

A little research and you would have discovered Black Point is north facing beach (which is rare in SA) and hence it's extremely calm.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 19 2009, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"The point is that I have no debt, so I do not need to service a huge Loan, if it was not my home but an investment property and I had a huge debt on it, I would of sold probably in the first 2 quarters of last year."

Debt or no debt if you believe an asset is doing to fall 20-30% you'd be silly not to sell? If it was shares you'd think nothing of it, click, click, click... order placed.

The point I'm making is either A: You don't really believe a fall like that will happen, B: You understand the issues with selling property (costs, paper work and emotional) .

TheFerret I hope you understand I'm not really aiming this at you, I'm more using you as an example. You could sell but you won't because you don't have to (correct me if I read you wrong). How many other people feel the exact same way ?. As barnymauler pointed out, the market needs to drop between 10-15% for the sell now, buy in 12-24 months plan to "break even".

"I don't think you or I are silly enough to think that our posts can influence house prices."
There's a number of first home buyers reading this topic... it would be silly not to think we don't have "some" effect in their decision making process. It's also been shown before the media float around forums to get ideas, guage viewpoint etc... it's all butterfly theory effect.

Anyhow... any South Aussie want to go halves in the below at Black Point ?
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsear...p;tm=1237420960

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 18 2009, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
My house, which I built is not an investment, it's my home

If someone REALLY believes an asset is doing to loss 20-30% in the next 12-24 months they would be silly not to sell it.. right ?

But to quote someone I think we all know "It's not a house, it's a home" and that's the point people are missing. Even if prices dropped by 10% overnight people aren't going to panic and sell as A: Everyone needs somewhere to live B: The kids school, memories etc.

QUOTE
But on the sidelines I'm after a Beach House, at the right price of course - no banks involved.

I think this shows you have a self interest in "believing" the market will/should fall.

I'd love for a 20-30% fall.. I'd pickup the house on the coast I keep promising my wife, the difference is I keep looking at the stats and I can't see it occurring.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 18 2009, 03:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

73.5% of the market in January was not FHOG based.
The question is how many of the 26.5% would purchase (or be able to) their first home without FHOG ? That's something worth polling but no one seems to be bothered.

The idea that FHOG stops and the whole thing falls apart seems to plain ignore that 3 out of 4 property transactions have nothing to do with FHOG.

IMO the government will scale back FHOG to pre October 2008 levels (it gives something to both sides of the debate)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 18 2009, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE


Done... and your point is ?

1 July 2000 to 8 March 2001 = $7K
9 March 2001 to 31 December 2001 = $14K
1 January 2002 to 30 June 2002 = $10K
1 July 2002 to 13 October 2008 = $7K
14 October 2008 to Now = $14K (Established homes)
14 October 2008 to 10 November 2008 = $21K
11 November 2008 to Now = $24K (New construction)

So depending on what time you bought in the last 9 years you may have received $7K, $10K, $14K, $21K or $24K. You seem to imply everyone got today's grant rate... which isn't correct.

Now top 20 suburbs in NSW.. they all have large amount of new home construction so there's no surprised they have large amounts of grants awarded to them, is it ?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 17 2009, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

thresher,

Stamp Duty is state based and therefore it differs state to state... and the exemptions only started 2007 from memory.

i.e.
TAS has a concession of up to a maximum of $4000
QLD $8,750 (property less then $504,999.99) that reduces to nil (property more then $550,000)

I've looked at all the states and I can't see any duty rate that would amount to an 18K exemption ?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 17 2009, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"However, a sub-prime equivalent has been created with the first home buyers grant. The grant allowed borrowers who normally wouldn't have qualified, to borrow big sums of money to buy a house without having saved any of their own money for a deposit."

Sorry but that made me LOL. That grant was $7K and only last year was it boosted to $14K ($21K for new construction)

The average house price (national) last year was just over $400K

At 7K it's not even a 2% deposit
At 14K it's a 3.5% deposit
At 21K it's a 5.25% deposit

The grant doesn't in most cases even cover the cost of stamp duty. At $400K most FHO's needed to amass between $20-30K.

The media seems to swing between, "the deposit required now make housing out of reach" to "anyone can buy with the FHOG"

It can't be both...

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 16 2009, 06:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"I have listed a couple of material suppliers - they are not doing well because? I reckon they are not doing well because demand is weak, construction is down. Is it mainly due to slowdown in the commercial property and/or the residential sector?"

Demand and supply don't have to be 1:1

Demand can remain static (or even grow) while a market over supplies... the end result is a excess (which is where we are now IMO). The real question is, is demand falling or is supply simply falling to match demand ?

Personally based on the stats I've seen supply is falling to match demand while demand remains pretty much static.

I don't see any major new excess being created (most planned projects are now being canned) and that IMO is being reflected in the SP of the material suppliers.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 16 2009, 05:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Nohoper,

Without wanting to sound rude, try reading the last couple of posts. They part explain the conditions that caused the US/UK to crash and why the same type of crash didn't occur in Australia. It's not a case of simple lag either, if the Australia market does crash it will be due to a different set of factors (i.e. high unemployment)

I don't think you'll see anyone claim the market is booming and there are areas (like the NW of Melbourne) that have serious over supply issues. That said it's about averages, the serious over supply in one area doesn't equate to the whole state or country market.

"probably suffering from debt over hang, poor demand, poor result and generally are starved of Vitamin M(oney)..."

I think you've summed it up nicely. IMO a number of these projects where borderline uneconomical from the start. It's worth remembering that poor management and bad lending practices can cause projects to fail even in a growing market.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 16 2009, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Triage,

"somehow is supposed to mean that there can be no price tension is quite specious IMO"
I'd have to agree. The other issue is how many of those 60% have been used as credit guarantees against other investments (including property)

"Problems in the residential real estate in the US was a leading indicator this time around because unusually it was the banking real estate connection that initiated the problems in the US, but not quite the same here"

That IMO is a very important point, it's something I've been trying to highlight for months. The conditions that effected the US/UK property market didn't occur in Australia. IMO If the "supportive effects" remain (low interest rates, FHOG) the market will drift gently downwards until the equity markets improve (early 2010).

As I've said many times before... mid April will be the real indicator, we'll know then what big business are planning on doing over the next 6-12 months.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 16 2009, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Well worth a read...
http://business.smh.com.au/business/safe-a...hk.html?page=-1

I've copy/pasted a couple of IMO keypoints...

'Between June 1990 and June 1992, full-time employment fell by 7%, and then took a full three years to get back to where it started. So, how far did home prices fall? Actually, they didn't. Average house prices across Australia's state capitals rose - not fell- by about 2% per annum in nominal terms as that early-1990s recession and jobs disaster unfolded.

''It turns out that the downward pressure on home prices from shrinking employment in the early-1990s recession was more than offset by upward pressure on home prices from the halving of mortgage rates, from a record 17% in 1989 to 8.75% in 2003.

''I have no idea if average Australian house prices will fall somewhat or rise over the next five years. But those with their eyes wide open can see that sharply lower mortgage rates this time around - lower than most Australian home buyers ever dared to dream - already are having a strongly supportive effect on housing markets.'...

''Now that mortgage rates suddenly are nearly 400 points lower, the ratio of household interest payments to disposable income has dropped from about 15% to near 10%. That is, Australian households on average now devote about $1 of every $10 of after-tax earnings to interest payments, down from about $1.50 about 10 months ago.

''Australian households' debt burden just dropped dramatically, something that didn't happen in the US or the UK when it mattered.''.....

"To help keep a little perspective on the average Australian home, it's worth remembering that more than 60% of households are mortgage free - even unemployment can't see a bank repossessing them."....

"That's perhaps not the impression you might get from the general media - especially if your local paper is the Mosman Daily."

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 13 2009, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Standalone stats are nothing but dangerous

Sydney House Prices (Commsec) How about something that shows past 2000 ? (if you find it, it will show the down turn that occurs 2 years after the end of that graph)
Compound Annual Growth Rate graph is displaying the creation rate not the total number of still vacant houses (nor how long they were vancant)
Real Home Price Index. Now show it adjusted with forex in mind (as the base line is 119 years old)
Household Debt, again adjust it with forex in mind. (we have covered this before in this topic if you look back)
The next two graphs now factor dual incomes... the idea that dual incomes will stop anytime soon is unrealistic.

Alot of this has been covered in depth on this topic before, Jasonjeroo take a hour and have a look back thru the last 25 pages. You'll see the past debate about the US vs UK vs AUS household debt and how when you adjust it to take into account forex (and how that the three countries measure the figure) AUS is below the US & UK

When you see the same figure by three different researches and they are all different you'll start to understand that each country has a slightly different way of measuring (it's just like how TheFerret was amazed at how the AUS unemployment is measured)

15+ posts and you still haven't answered 3 basic questions... so I'll repeat them:
So your 100% cash ATM?
Your parents renting ?
Your renting?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 13 2009, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Jasonjeroo,

"it's tip for tap on answers (i.e. I'm not answering you because you didn't answer me)"
Not this again. How about replying to my 3 questions ? (if you carefully read my post you'll see I didn't claim you personally attacked me)

Here's a selection of your claims that are based on past events
"Supply is NOT drying up. The exact opposite is the case"
"At the bottom of the market the quality is not low"
"Guess what? Prices are getting cheaper." (compared to prices in 2003/2004)
"I say supply is increasing. It can be proven statistically."
"Adelaide? It only started to rise after all the other "investors" got priced out of the other states."
"average earnings there are too low to support any serious cap gains" (Adelaide)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 13 2009, 01:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

jasonjeroo,

I shouldn't be replying as yet again you've posted with no real stats or sources to backup or even lend support to your viewpoint.

If you read my posts you'll see I'm not predicting any short term house price increases. What I am saying is the statistics don't point to 20-30% falls as per your claims (or the other claims like Adelaide)

As to your "personal circumstances" you made clear;
You told family to sell 3 years ago
You believe the market will fall 30%
You believe the share market has further to fall.

It's very "on topic" to ask if you are following your own advise, it would be hypocritical not to.

As to quality you again seem to selectively quote or read the post so quickly you miss complete lines, I don't know how many times I've said at the bottom and not now.

Just like my last post, Awaiting a reply with stats and sources.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 12 2009, 10:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

This is getting childish now, any disagreement is meet with a personal attack, it's tip for tap on answers (i.e. I'm not answering you because you didn't answer me). There's 3 direct questions in the last post you seem to have ignored.

"crystal ball advice" ? Please point me to it… it must be a big ball as it fits RMIT, ABS, Aus Gov etc in it.

"You say "Supply is falling, it can be proven statically". I say supply is increasing. It can be proven statistically."
Please supply it, I've been posting on this topic for months now, lots of stats and sources for those stats. In reviewing your posts I'm yet to see any major stats and/or source to backup a viewpoint.

Quality isn't just about price, supply is a factor… because you can afford something doesn't always mean you can obtain it when you want it.

As to Adelaide, your comments show a lack of research (and something else but we're being nice now). Adelaide started to move based on the mining boom, defense contracts, etc. We come back to stats, it's easy to measure when "investors" from other states move in (i.e. the address of the title holder, it's all recorded by the State Title office) and the stats show what you claim "started" the rise... occurred 3 years after it (funny that). Average earnings, ABS will clear that up (have a look and then compare against average state based property prices) as to cap gains whats better, 500K to 600K or 1m to 1.2m ? .

Awaiting a reply with stats and sources.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 12 2009, 08:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

jasonjeroo

Your handing out lot of "hindsight" advise.

The market is more than just Sydney (try expanding your view point), based on your "advise" I should not have bought my last property (2005)
I should have also sold all my shareholdings in October last year.

So your 100% cash ATM?
Your parents renting ?
Your renting?

Supply is falling, it can be proven statically. You've claimed "There are more properties on the market now than a couple of years ago". The stats don't support that, they do support that your getting confused with "number of days on market" as that is increasing.

The past shows at the bottom of the market quality is low. I'm talking about the "bottom" not the last 12 months unless your claiming it's bottoming now. What's been on offer in Mosman in the last 12 months may not be quality when you compare it AGAINST other Mosman properties. Like for Like, Mosman vs Mosman, Bondi vs Bondi, at the bottom of the market the quality on offer in each suburb is below its normal par.

As to missing out, if you quoted me correctly you'll see I talk about risk. You claiming it is better to buy at the bottom, so when is that ? I see people call tops and bottoms on shares all day and more often they miss them by a clear +10%.

Anyhow, again the property market is more than a single city or state. Sydney prices topped out more than 5 years ago (again statistics show this clearly) but other markets like Adelaide grew up to the last quarter (if you do a little research you'll see Adelaide was a little slow, it didn't run like Sydney did in the early 00's and hence it was "catching up")

Cheers
Matt

BTW If I followed your advice I would have missed on a 54% increase on my last property.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 12 2009, 04:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

jasonjeroo,

Duster's question is very valid and you last post seems to imply the answer is no. With that in mind the second part of the question should be then "why ?"

Forgetting the liquidity issue for a second the other major difference between shares and property is no two parcels are the same.

Supply will and is drying up... It's the simple fact people put off selling into a depressed market unless they are forced to. It's a little like trading, at the top or bottom of most rallies volume is very low.

Anyhow back to no two parcels being the same, at the bottom of any property market the "quality" on offer is always low, it's part caused by the average "type" of person thats forced to sell.

It's like any market based system (i.e. a fruit market), the specials come at the end of the day when the seller is forced to sell. Normally by that time anything of quality has long gone and the supply is low... if you plan to only buy then you need to accept the risk that you may simply "miss out".

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 12 2009, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

TheFerret,

Don't laugh, Tri Incomes households are coming (children can't afford to buy themselves and hence living with the parents longer).

Tri/Quad income households are common in Asia.

Anyhow while a little off topic you'll laugh at this...



While you will never see a trillion dollars in person (nature's way of protecting your sanity amidst the bailout), computers can do the job without breaking a sweat—or worrying about retirement.

Measurements were taken of a $US10,000 stack of $US100 bills and pretty much multiplied from there using simple geometry. In that trillion dollar shot, each pallet holds $US100 million...and the pallets are double stacked.

As for that red blob on the left? It's a human.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 12 2009, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

jasonjeroo,

"You think 10X wages house prices are sustainable? My older brother bought his first house at 3X average wages. Houses have seen a massive rise in a fraction of a generation."

I've commented on this before (4th Feb 2009) the stats don't paint the full picture.... two words "Dual Income"

QUOTE
Decade / Avg Mortgage/ Avg Weekly Wage / Avg House Price (% increase difference)
70's vs 00's /830.43% / 809.23% / 924.37%
80's vs 00's /243.95% / 254.85% / 380.89%
90s vs 00's /199.59% / 135.32% /246.64%

Shock horror... now factor how many household where dual full time income in the 70's, how about the 80's ?

When you factor that dual incomes are now the "norm" the average household income starts to keep up with the mortgage repayments and the average house price (my point is stats by themselves don't paint the full or correct picture)


It's also worth pointing out "other" daily products cost less now verse then when you factor inflation (i.e. cars, petrol). The "good old days" approach seems to falter when you sit down and work out what really changed.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 11 2009, 11:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mags,

This will come across rude but it has to be said, your showing your age a little.... it's your first down turn in the labour force.

I'm reading a lot of panic and lots of media quotes in your post but one has to ask what have you seen happening around you?

Oh but it's not a recession it's GD2 (Great Depression II).

Sept 2001, GD2 talk.
2000 (Tech Bubble popped), GD2 talk
Early 1990's (our last recession), GD2 talk
1987 (Wall Street), GD2 talk was very loud then

I can go on and on... every downturn since GD1 you'll see talk about GD2 starting. The media reports what sells papers, the truth comes second.

Job stability, If you know 100 people (of working age) statistically 2 of them will become unemployed this year.

If you live in a state other then WA or QLD you'll be lucky to know 1 out of 100. That's reality and anything more is just media hype.

Recessions are a part of life, will housing prices drop this year... sure... but so will supply. It's not one for one and there's a lag but it will happen.

Based on RMIT modeling only 4% of Australian 8.5 million households will face "negative equity" this year. 97-98% of that 4% will be able to service the mortgage and/or refinance, 2-3% will default. Lets talk numbers that meants there will be around 7,000-10,000 properties sold onto the market. Sounds like a big number but the reality is 600-800 properties per month mainly focused around WA & QLD. SA wise based on the stats there will be less than 50 "fire sales" per month mainly focused to the north and south.

If you want something really scary to think about...try the aging population and the effects on the economy

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 11 2009, 03:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

wren

"In Florida,prices peaked in 1927 and did not recover (in dollar terms--not inflation adjusted ) until 1957.
There are many reasons for home ownership:not sure if "as an investment" is one."

wren it's worth pointing out WHY Florida prices peaked 1927..

The 1920's Florida real estate bubble bursting was caused by a number of factors:

The railroads couldn't handle the demand (food and building supplies)
1925 the rail demand was so high they embargoed all goods other then food.
1926 the Prinz Valdemar sank in the mouth of Miami harbor (blocking it)
Now also add 2 major hurricanes that destroyed a number of industries

With the above in mind the cost for building supplies skyrocketed, projects collapsed. Wall Street didn't come into the issue until 1929.

As to AFTER the great depression... the arrival of the Mediterranean fruit fly destroyed both the tourist and citrus industries upon which Florida depended (so the state didn't recover like many other states recovered after the great depression)

So my point is trying to compare what happened then vs now is drawing a long bow.

Cheers
Matt

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Mar 10 2009, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Bam

Most large companies announce bonus, pay increases, staff levels and project budgets early April (they close the books 31st March as it normally takes 3 months to finalise)

With this in mind I think by late April, early May you'll see how bad it's going to get for the next 6 months.

As to the grants and all that... try thinking about them as %

So your question is (based on $400K) buy now and get 3.5% in grants or buy later and get 1.75%. IMO really don't see the markets droping 1.75% between June and July.

For example the last house we bought, we drove by the open inspection on the way to another open inspection (this house wasn't even on our radar). After looking at the house I said to the better half "I love you but no" as it was out our price range. 3 weeks later I bought the house at action (it sold for less then we expected)

I think the point I'm making is long term a 2% difference is NOTHING... the bigger issue will be finding the right house.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Feb 25 2009, 08:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

The Four Bad Bears
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Feb 20 2009, 09:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Why girls model cars... enough said
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Feb 19 2009, 01:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Sad but true...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics...-false-leg.html

Man has electronic tag fitted to false leg

Bret Ravenhill, 29, was given the tag to ensure he obeyed a curfew after being convicted for the possession of cannabis.

He said a Group 4 security worker failed to notice that his left leg was made of metal and detachable.

Ravenhill, a forklift truck driver who lost the leg in a motorcycle crash six years ago, told The Sun: "Two friends were at my house when she came round and were killing themselves laughing.

"I thought she would realise straight away - but she never bothered to turn up my trouser leg or look underneath my sock. I just left things as they were for a joke."

Ravenhill was given probation by a judge but barred from going out at night for three months.

Despite security workers checking his tag every four weeks, none noticed it was attached to the metal leg.

He said: "I didn't break my curfew once - but I could have been out living it up every night. I'm no danger to the public - but what if they'd done the same thing to an armed robber?"

David Hanson, the justice minister, told the newspaper: "I am very concerned."

A spokesman for Group 4 added: "It would appear that in this instance the procedure has not been followed."
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Feb 13 2009, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

"As an example :we should be the world leading country in solar and we're not."

Totally agree onefineday

Using the 42 billion we could convert 10-11% of all Australian households to grid connected solar power.

Become the world leader in Solar power usage
Meet all of our "carbon" targets
Kick start the "Green" industry (which would have long term effects)
Keep the building sector going (someone has to install them)
Drop the base load demand by 10% and hence fix all the power supply issues

Want to spread the wealth ?
Match dollar for dollar then… we would then convert 21-22% of all Australian households to solar power.

Don't like power, we all know water is a issue in this country, $42 billion on water based infrastructure would go a long way in trying to fix the issue.

We need to start thinking outside the box and not token handouts that may help now but after a month or two are simply forgotten in the big picture.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Feb 4 2009, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

A little something in the paper today...
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/files/stepback.pdf

Year (Decade), Avg Interest Rate, Avg Adelaide House Price, Average Monthly Mortgage Repayment, Average SA weekly wage.

Decade / Avg Mortgage/ Avg Weekly Wage / Avg House Price (% increase difference)
70's vs 00's /830.43% / 809.23% / 924.37%
80's vs 00's /243.95% / 254.85% / 380.89%
90s vs 00's /199.59% / 135.32% /246.64%

Shock horror... now factor how many household where dual full time income in the 70's, how about the 80's ?

When you factor that dual incomes are now the "norm" the average household income starts to keep up with the mortgage repayments and the average house price (my point is stats by themselves don't paint the full or correct picture)

Anyhow if you want a laugh compare 40's with 00's.
The average weekly wage has increase by 7900.68% yet the average house price has only increased by 6953.22%

So over a 60 year point of view, housing has increased less then wages tongue.gif

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Feb 4 2009, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
One would think that it is a Govt collated figure, that is how many folks are collecting unemployment benefits and that is my understanding of how the figure is determined.


I don't disagree. When I heard how it was collected I almost feel off my chair but after hearing all the reasons it did make sense (i.e not all unemployed people collect benefits, some people work without telling the ATO, part time vs full time etc).

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Feb 4 2009, 08:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE
Do You honestly believe that, I know a few folks that are unemployed that the stats ignore, they are not included in the stats because of the intrusiveness of the Govt into their lives, they just say shove it - I don't blame them as I would behave exactly in the same manner.


TheFerret,

Sorry but your wrong there. The unemployment rate statistic is collected by a "sample poll", i.e. they interview a sample group and ask them questions on their employment in the last fortnight.

If the "few folks" you know told the interviewer to "shove it" they would be excluded from the poll (not counted as employed or unemployed).

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jan 29 2009, 08:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Best AD I've seen for a long time... Scroll down to the bottom of the attachment
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Veet.pdf ( 1.32MB ) Number of downloads: 233

 
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jan 6 2009, 03:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (TheFerret @ Tuesday 06/01/09 02:06pm)

"They have in no uncertain terms told me to stay out and wait and watch"

I'd have to agree, that said if you're bearish there is the odd long term bargain out there. Based on their advice I'd say they are sitting on their investment properties (verses selling them all now) ?

Worth noting I was at a open house for quick look on the weekend, it was interesting to note there was a hint of "hush" in the sale (no one sells xmas-new year unless you have to).

Being a little stickybeak I noticed two UNI degrees on the wall, engineering/geo… this was also backed up with the hard hats and dusty work boots in the garage. Very quickly got the opinion both worked in the resource sector (waiting now for db76 to comment) and wanted to get out now and sit on the cash.

The point I'm making is if your cashed up there are some "rushed" / "forced" sales starting to enter the market. Long term view points come into play (the buy/reno/sell idea is way too riskly at the moment).

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jan 6 2009, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (db76 @ Tuesday 06/01/09 11:08am)

db76,

"30% deposits", "Housing prices have fallen by as much as 50 percent"

Without wanting to sound rude I think you need to get out into the real world a little more, papers sell on hype.

Yes housing may have dropped 50% in Ireland (I never like round numbers it normally means someone is "rounding") but if you dig into the facts you'll discover the figure effects one suburb only and isn't the national average by a long shot.

Good friends of mine 2 weeks ago purchased a house, $430K with a 10% deposit. Banks aren't worried, first they are covered by mortgage insurance and second in Australia they loan based on your ability to service the mortgage.

That's the issue here, the US and UK offered 95%, 100% and even 105% mortgages to people who couldn't afford to service the mortgage. They got the mortgage on honeymoon rates (well below what they offer in Australia) on the idea that they would "refinance" or "quickly sell for a profit" once those rates expired. It all worked IF housing prices rose wink.gif

If you go back through this topic you'll see a lot of discussion about the differences between mortgages in Australia verses the US/UK... it's apples and oranges (i.e. Interest only loans were common in the US, yet in Australia they are very rare)

All that aside the "spending wave" theory is well worth a read… there is logic in the theory.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/stor...470-462,00.html

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jan 2 2009, 01:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: db76 on Friday 02/01/09 12:08pm

"reality beats statistics"

If you know 100 people statistically 2 of them will become unemployed this year. That's reality and anything more is just hype.

If you live in NSW or VIC you'll be lucky to know 1 out of 100.

If you look at Sharescene's poll (If 'cash equivalents' plus 'shares' = 100%, what percentage of shares are you holding?) there are a lot of people sitting on piles of cash. I've also seen this first hand as a number of people I know have recently asked me if I think it's a good time to buy back into the share market.

As I said below only 4% of the 2% will be facing negative equity. The idea that most will be forced to dump their assets in a fire sale isn't reality.

Those that due will move into the rental market... that in turn drives up rental demand and hence effects investment property prices.

The debt/income (as I showed below) IMO shows why we won't have the same RE issues that US/UK have.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jan 2 2009, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: Mags on Thursday 01/01/09 10:03pm

"I had heard household wealth dropped by 9%"
IMO you'll find most of that is "super" related.. If anything super has taken more then a 9% hit but that's been cancelled out by the housing price increase.

db76,

It's easier to keep to just "household" debt for the discussion. From what I understand "Unincorporated enterprises" & "Nonfinancial business" are the same thing (so while it maybe $1269 Billion in AUS, it's $24.9 Trillion in the US"

Flowers point is valid..
"Surely for your figures to be meaningful, each country's average personal debt has to be directly linked to each country's average wages, and then only directly compared using that countries individual currency?"

US $45.5K
UK $30.4
AUD $22.5K

United States $45,725
United Kingdom $35,634
Australia $36,226

^ Data refer to the year 2007. World Economic Outlook Database-October 2008, International Monetary Fund. Accessed on October 8, 2008.

While I'm not debating household debt is in uncharted territory, the point I'm trying to make is Australia isn't as bad off as they (the Australian media) keep painting. People seem to be forgetting "hype" sells papers !

"However this didn’t quite work out as planed. As more and more two income households came into the picture, all this did was push house prices up. Today, prices are so high that in the majority of cases two incomes are a mandatory requirement to service the mortgage. If one member of the household loses his or her job, then it’s more than likely than not, they will default on the mortgage. "

Unemployment is currently 4.4 . The average prediction is that rate will rise to 6-7%. We are talking about an average 2% increase.

The real question is how many of that 2% are sitting on "real" household equity? Based on RMIT modeling only 4% of Australian 8.5 million households will face "negative equity" this year. The idea above that "it’s more than likely than not, they will default on the mortgage" is nothing more then hype... most will be able to walk into a bank and refinance.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Dec 31 2008, 02:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: mminion on Wednesday 31/12/08 01:48pm

Further to the below

Average household debt in the UK is £21,000 for every man, woman and child.

If you convert that from GBP that's $30400 USD

So to keep score in USD
US $45.5K
UK $30.4
AUD $22.5K

I'll happily concede that the AUD has dropped dramatically in the past 3 months, that said even at it's highs we still would have placed 3rd in this ranking.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Dec 31 2008, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: Duster on Wednesday 31/12/08 12:39pm

Duster,

The value of the land it sits upon is priced (to a large part) into the housing cost. To recoup that cost they build higher in HKG vs SYD. That aside I do get your point.

Db76,

"Australia's total household debt is currently approximately $650 billion – about $32,500 for every man, woman and child."

First lets convert AUD to US. $32,500 AUS = $22,500 US

America's household debt is currently $13.91 trillion. America's population is 305 million.
By my maths that's $45,500 for every man, woman and child (lots of big numbers happy to be corrected if there is a mistake in the maths)

$45K vs $22K ... that figure alone show the s**t the US have got themselves into.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Dec 31 2008, 11:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: db76 on Wednesday 31/12/08 10:22am

"australians are the most over-leveraged across all types of debt"

Want to supply some facts/figures to back that up ? I think it's yet another example of twisted statistics and media hype.

Worth repeating part of a post I made back on the 01/08/08

QUOTE
Further more, Australian property is not the most expensive in the world… again it’s about twisting statistics. That headline is based on the "Median Multiple" statistic. (average household price / average household income)

Australia = 6.3
Canada = 3.1
Ireland = 4.7
New Zealand = 6.3
United Kingdom = 5.5
United States = 3.6

Now I'm sure people have seen this statistic, but how many know how it's gathered ? One of the first issues in this statistic is they don't count areas under 50,000 people (there goes a lot of Australia and New Zealand towns), the second issue is the not all countries are surveyed (i.e. Hong Kong) for the simple reason, it gets too hard to gather statistics "world" wide. (the above report didn't even include European countries for that matter)

Just compare Hong Kong to Sydney as an example… 2 Bedroom unit, CBD district. It's a simple 2:1 ratio…

$530,000 - $545,000
303 CASTLEREAGH STREET, SYDNEY
- Size: 110 sqm Approx (I've converted this to 1184 ft² )
- Lock up garage: 16 sqm Approx

HK$ 7,980,000 (I've concerted this to $1,089,000 AUD)
15, Arbuthnot Road, Central, Hong Kong
780 sq.ft.
2 Bedroom(s), including 0 Ensuite 1 Bathrooms
Combined Living and Dining Room

Google both if you want to look at each (neither have nice views so it's not a "view" your paying for). Do the same for Paris, London, New York… the idea that Australian property is super expensive is based on twisted statistics.

Size is the other issue, the average Australian block is one of the largest in the world, if you focus on flats/units (so plain square meters of living space) you start to have something to evenly compare with… and once you start comparing with that in mind you see figures like the above (Hong Kong VS Sydney)

Anyhow back to work… got to pay off the mortgage

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Dec 31 2008, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (wolverine @ Tuesday 30/12/08 07:01pm)

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27...756-462,00.html

Melbourne Business School professor Mark Crosby.
"In a gloomy new year outlook, economists are predicting unemployment could rise through 2009 from its current 4.4 per cent level towards 8 per cent, costing a further 400,000 people their jobs"

Citigroup economist Paul Brennan
"Citigroup economist Paul Brennan expects the RBA to cut to a historic low of 3 per cent in its published cash rate, citing his bank's forecasts that Australia's economy would record nil growth over next year and unemployment would peak at 6.7 per cent in 2010."

The Australian Government
"Treasury has forecast that number to creep upwards to 5 per cent next year and 5.75 per cent in 2010."

Not surprising the story focuses on the "worse" of the 3 predictions, you have to sell papers I guess wink.gif

________________________________________________________

So three predictions... high 5's, 6's or 7's (the story states "towards 8 per cent" which really means high 7's). If you take the average figure of high 6's you are talking about 200,000 jobs. 200,000 jobs doesn't equally "the sky is falling" journalism that's occurring now does it ?

Lets kill two birds with the same stone...

In 2007 there were 285,200 births registered in Australia (to make things easy lets round that up to 300,000)

Government fund 6 months maternity leave (Australia women have been demanding this for years, and it's a vote winner)

While I accept it's not a 1:1 ratio, the scheme will create a employment hole. This hole will at least half fill the predicted rise in "unemployment".

As for the other half of the hole… well we need to accept the good times and the bad.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Macro Factors

mminion
Posted on: Dec 4 2008, 08:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

OK cancel Christmas... Santa has been arrested by Imperial Storm troopers.

SANTA'S FACTORY, North Pole (Agencies) - An Imperial Stormtrooper commando broke into Santa's Factory on the North Pole yesterday evening, killing an undetermined number of elves, arresting the owner and confiscating his sled. Joe Kwazansky, local spokesman for the Evil Galactic Empire in Los Angeles, appeared in a press conference this morning confirming the rumors of an Imperial takeover of Christmas' celebrations. "The Emperor wants to assure His subjects that Xmas will continue as planned. The pug-nosed fatso, however, will pay for his crimes," Mr. Kwazansky said amid the palpable shock in the press corps. Apparently, the arrest has occurred in connection with earlier reports on the manufacturing and stealth placement of Weapons of Mass Destruction:

Answering questions about the causes of this assault and Santa Claus' detention, Mr. Kwazansky pointed out that Imperial Intelligence had undeniable proof of Santa's production of WMDs at his factory located near the North Pole. "He is also a perv, you know," he added, "a guy who goes around his house clad in red velvet and has underaged boys assisting him all day long. Illegal sex? Forced labor? You gotta be kidding. We have the patent on forced labor too. Ask the wookies."

Later in the press conference, Mr. Kwazansky, 48 years old and still living with his parents, revealed that Santa may have been stealing industrial secrets from Imperial-exclusive defense contractor Sienar Fleet Systems. "And what's with the bloody flying reindeers anyway?" he said, "how the Force do they fly? I bet they have Twin Ion Engines up their butts. That's classified technology, people. Fatso is finishing his days in the Great Pit of Carkoon, I tell you." The spokesperson left the stage laughing maniacally, muttering something about how Santa was going to suffer for all those years of coal back at the Imperial Orphanage.

Commenting on the strike, UN's North Pole representative Kalle Jugercømmandersson said that "we don't understand this act of unprovoked agression. The North Pole has been weapons-free since 1959, when Timmy the Polar Bear was killed by a drunk seal using a 38." Then, he started sobbing, crying "and we are not little boys! We are little grown men!" out loud.

Lord Darth Vader was unavailable to comment at the time of this report.

Cheers
Matt
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Nov 12 2008, 09:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

It makes me wonder if the guy is very smart or plain dumb
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Sep 19 2008, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Nothing to worry about, the U.S. Financial Meltdown is all part of their plan.. lol
http://io9.com/5052047/did-aliens-cause-th...ancial-meltdown

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Sep 19 2008, 11:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (nohoper @ Friday 19/09/08 11:42am)

Thanks for that Nohoper...

"Goldman Sachs economists' optimistic scenario is a couple years of mild recession or painfully slow economy growth."

I think India and China the real X factors, if they can keep their s**t together and encourage internal growth that may offset any major drop from decreased US demand. If this occurs then "slow economy growth" will be US based (and not a global one, aka Japan 1990's)

In 20, 50 years time I don't believe this will be referred to as GD2 (Great Depression II), it will be seen as the "shift" in power from the US/Europe to China/India.

On a side note, I saw Billy Boy (Bill Gates) is top of the heap again as the markets have hurt Warren... as they say the geeks will inherit the earth biggrin.gif

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 19 2008, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: nohoper on Thursday 18/09/08 07:01pm

Hi Nohoper

Your question yesterday
"Ok, the question I have for you and others is this - if you are in their position, what would you do? What are the alternatives? They can't let the whole thing just crushing down on everyone?"

Sorry took the night off...

Think of the issue as a medical emergency.
1. Get the patient out of immediate danger (Temporally ban shorting)
2. Stabilise the patient (Support the system by boosting liquidity)
3. Work out a short term treatment plan (Change the mortgage laws in America)

So steps 1 & 2 have occurred (British & Russian) but it's all useless unless they change the mortgage laws in America… they need to change the laws to match the British system (which inturn is the same system as we have here in Australia)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 18 2008, 05:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: nohoper on Thursday 18/09/08 05:08pm

Agree Citigroup seems to scream "watch out below"

At 81.7 Billion IMO it's too big for someone to takeover... for the moment.

There's a really good post over on the "Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?" topic by mullokintyre that explains one of the "quirks" of the US real estate system (I don't think he'll mind me reposting it)

QUOTE
In considering the US market, there are a number of natable differences to AUs.

First of all, US loans are generally longer term - as in 30 years.
Secondly, interest payments are tax deductible in the US.

Thirdly, the loans use their basis as the LIBOR rate (the London interbank rate), plus a margin. Thus, although the FED was cutting rates like there was no tomorrow, the LIBOR rate was going up, so the homeowners in difficulty got no relief.

Finally, in a quirk of the US system, if one defaults on a loan, you can just walk away with a lousy credit rating, but the lenders can't come after you to cash in your other assets to repay the loan Thus, there is a very large market in mortgage insurance. It is these mortgage insurance bonds that are currently under great scrutiny.

There have been examples of people with high incomes who are quite financially capable of paying of their loans, but with the fall in home prices, their equity had dropped to a level below the loan. Hence, they decide to walk away.


The above really shows how the US banks / mortgage insurance brokers are stuffed....

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 18 2008, 03:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

user posted image

Interesting but very valid way of showing before and now snapshots.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 18 2008, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (nohoper @ Thursday 18/09/08 12:09pm)

What came first, the chicken or the egg ?

Is the fear causing people to short, or is the shorting causing the fear ?

To me it's a bit of both and you then need to throw in the internet. The rate and speed that fear spreads has increased dramatically with the net. I think the point I'm trying to make is while we can compare past and now, now has a number of factors unseen in past events.

On a different note, was watching Dateline last night caught a bit about the new oil boom in North Dakota.

"This is T. Boone Pickens. He made millions drilling for oil and turned that into billions as a corporate raider. Pickens says America must face reality and end its reliance on foreign oil. And he's funding a $58 million campaign to convince America.

T. BOONE PICKENS COMMERCIAL: Did you know, back in 1970 we imported 24% of our oil, today it is almost 70% and climbing every minute. Over 700 billion dollars are leaving this country to foreign nations every year. Four times the cost of the Iraqi war."

I think this current market drop has one positive... Americans are waking up a little, $700 billion reason to fast track "non-oil" tech and I've seen one weird example of that, "US Military Wants Airplanes to Run On Coal" (yes coal) http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/sto...s/COAL09128.xml

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 18 2008, 09:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (nohoper @ Wednesday 17/09/08 12:54pm)

Well it broke through that 10800 but at 10609 it's still within a percent or two (so within tolerance)

Lets be frank, in my opinion the issue is shorting.... 1987, Tech Bubble, 911 shorting didn't play any big role but it sure is at the moment.

Saw this quote today:
"The fear is, 'Who is next?'" said John O'Brien, senior vice president at MKM Partners. "It almost feels like people scour the books and say, 'Who is the next likely target that we can put a short on?' and that spreads continuous fear."

In past falls it was all about "risk minimisation" but today it seems more about "still making money"

Danville's comment about his brother seems to ring true. It seems half of America is pretending this isn't happening and the other half is trying to short and make money from the fall.

10000 here we come….

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 17 2008, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (nohoper @ Wednesday 17/09/08 12:54pm)

Hi Nohoper,

Thanks for the chart, 10800 does look to be the low this time but the gut is telling me otherwise (i.e. it's going to drop below that)

Cheers
Matt

BTW Someone emailed two interesting photos today... One has to wonder what the NYSE will look like in 70 years from now.

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  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 16 2008, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

I see Bank of America was down -21% but Merrill's was steady at +0.06%

From Washington Post 15/09
"Both boards approved the deal and it was being reviewed by lawyers late last night, the sources said. Bank of America will pay about $29 for each share of Merrill Lynch stock, which closed at $17.05 on Friday. A formal announcement is expected this morning."

From Yahoo today (11mins ago)
Bank of America shares fell $7.19, or 21 percent, to $26.55 on Monday, and Merrill shares rose just a penny to $17.06. Under terms of the transaction, Bank of America would exchange 0.8595 shares of Bank of America common stock for each Merrill Lynch common share. Based on BofA's closing price of $26.55 Monday, the deal was valued at less than $40 billion, or $22.82 a share.

Given the deal is based on a % exchange (0.8595) and not a fixed price why do I get the impression it's in BOA's interest to keep the fall going?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Sep 5 2008, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: Damon22 on Friday 05/09/08 09:40am

Hi Damon22,

"Superb boutique beers tasted recently in New Caledonia were the Blonde, Braun and Ambree brewed there (Brasserie, Noumea)"

I'd have to agree with that, did you try the food upstairs ? The pizza's with crepe like bases go down just as good as the beer biggrin.gif

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Sep 5 2008, 07:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

user posted image

Cheers and bottoms up
Matt

PS It's not too early to be thinking about beer right ?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Sep 3 2008, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: henrietta on Tuesday 02/09/08 07:08pm

Hi Henrietta

Chrome uses the same rendering engine as Safari (so your not missing much)

And forrestgump, I agree… I'm using Chrome right now as well

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Sep 2 2008, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

God, feel like this some days
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Aug 20 2008, 04:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Within 48 hours, we closed the gap and now surging ahead biggrin.gif

http://www.compareshares.com.au/vote_forum.php

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 19 2008, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (mminion @ Monday 18/08/08 11:04pm)

"I've sure over the next week the gap will close"

It seems I've totally misjudged the community spirit, from 4% to 21% in less then 24 hours biggrin.gif

http://www.compareshares.com.au/vote_forum.php

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 18 2008, 10:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: arty on Monday 18/08/08 06:11pm

The gap is closing fast, from 4% to 16% in under 4 hours

It takes alot of blood, sweat and tears to run ShareScene so it's really nice to see the community giving something back.

http://www.compareshares.com.au/vote_forum.php

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 18 2008, 05:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: Danville on Monday 18/08/08 06:00pm

Hi Danville,

ShareScene was only alerted today about the vote, I've been told it started last week.

I've sure over the next week the gap will close

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 11 2008, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Upload

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  Forum: Moderators Forum

mminion
Posted on: Aug 7 2008, 05:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Hi Guys

If you haven't guessed already Geoff / myself have been busy on other projects

If you want to look at what we have been up to have a look at:

http://www.ecolivingscene.com.au

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Moderators Forum

mminion
Posted on: Aug 5 2008, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Mar Qtr 08 to Jun Qtr 08 / Jun Qtr 07 to Jun Qtr 08
Weighted average of eight capital cities -0.3 / 8.2
Sydney 0.3 / 4.4
Melbourne –0.3 / 14.1
Brisbane 0.6 / 14
Adelaide 0.4 / 16.2
Perth –2.4 / –0.9
Hobart –2.0 / 3.0
Darwin 1.9 /7.0
Canberra –1.4 / 7.2

It's worth noting that "Economists" had expected a fall of 1.0 per cent for the June quarter (so they aren't totally in touch with what's happening)

The same "Economists" are predicting "Nationally, house and unit values are expected to dip by 10% over the next 12 months". So based on past performance that figure maybe anywhere from 5-10%.

BTW I did like the headline
"Overall capital city house prices declined by the sharpest rate in more than three years."

3 years? What happened 4 years ago? That's right the Sydney market peaked in 2003 and between 2003-2005 we had declines greater then this one.

While I don't hold views like Kevin Young (he's too over the top positive) I do agree with how he is painting the media... the headlines don't match the facts

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 1 2008, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: bam_bamm on Friday 01/08/08 02:00pm

Hi Bam_bamm

I can show a number of examples that go the other way (offered more to work in Adelaide vs Sydney). I'm sure if your family member told their current employer about the job offer that 25% difference would decrease very quickly (i.e. they would be offered a raise to stay in ADL).

It's about averages,
http://www.payscale.com/research/AU/City=Sydney/Salary
http://www.payscale.com/research/AU/City=Adelaide/Salary

Housing maybe cheaper but if you exclude that factor it's not really any cheaper to live in Adelaide (in fact a recent report showed Adelaide's grocery's are more expensive then Sydney/Melbourne) it's simple economies of scale.

Anyhow I think you missed my point... two years ago the housing price difference between the two cities was 62.9%, it's now 33.8% and I showed why IMO the "gap" closed (wage difference)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 1 2008, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

I'll get to the below in a second, but it's worth noting the Sydney average house price peaked in 2003.

Difference between 2006 (June) and 2008 (March)

Houses
Sydney 5.16%
Melbourne 25.85%
Brisbane 29.50%
Adelaide 28.04%
Perth 12.75%

Units
Sydney 2.25%
Melbourne 25.09%
Brisbane 26.07%
Adelaide 28.78%
Perth 17.32%

Lets take Adelaide as an example. In the last 2 years the average house price has increased by 28% but if you look into why IMO it's a story about catch up...

Software Engineer / Developer / Programmer
Sydney $56,301
Adelaide $50,412

The difference in pay is 11.6% yet the housing price difference between the two cities is currently 33.8%.

Back in 2006 the housing price difference between the two cities was 62.9%. Now I can't dig up the pay figures for 2006 but I can tell you from personal experience the difference wasn't much more then it is currently (11.6%)

It's a simple game of catch up… Sydney grew harder and faster then Adelaide over the past 10 years but Adelaide is now catching up. The 33.8% difference in wages still allows for positive movement in places like Adelaide IMO.

Now when you take into account inflation Sydney is moving backwards and has been for the past 2 years… Yet if you listen to the media, depending on which day in the week it is, Sydney's housing prices are either "Out of Control" or "Falling like Rocks". The truth is something very much "in between" and it depends a lot of which suburb your talking about.

No two stocks are the same, the same goes for suburbs, cities & countries, search BEHIND the media headlines…. Being investors and traders we already do so for shares, I can't see why property should be any different.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Aug 1 2008, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

“according to Gerard Minack, senior economist at Morgan Stanley in Sydney. Prices dropped in all of Australia's major cities last month for the first time since just before the Great Depression.”

“Today we hear on the radio in Adelaide that all major cities fell, except for Adelaide. Not quite sure where those figures are from. I don't believe them though......”

“I'm surprised at how people can expect that Australian property can hold given it's the most expensive in the world, and the world as a whole is revalueing.”

With a little “word smithing” you can make twist statistics to show what you want. Focus on the words “Australia's major cities”… worked it out yet ? Gerard Minack doesn’t class Adelaide as a “major” city.

Further more, Australian property is not the most expensive in the world… again it’s about twisting statistics. That headline is based on the "Median Multiple" statistic. (average household price / average household income)

Australia = 6.3
Canada = 3.1
Ireland = 4.7
New Zealand = 6.3
United Kingdom = 5.5
United States = 3.6

Now I'm sure people have seen this statistic, but how many know how it's gathered ? One of the first issues in this statistic is they don't count areas under 50,000 people (there goes a lot of Australia and New Zealand towns), the second issue is the not all countries are surveyed (i.e. Hong Kong) for the simple reason, it gets too hard to gather statistics "world" wide. (the above report didn't even include European countries for that matter)

Just compare Hong Kong to Sydney as an example… 2 Bedroom unit, CBD district. It's a simple 2:1 ratio…

$530,000 - $545,000
303 CASTLEREAGH STREET, SYDNEY
- Size: 110 sqm Approx (I've converted this to 1184 ft² )
- Lock up garage: 16 sqm Approx

HK$ 7,980,000 (I've concerted this to $1,089,000 AUD)
15, Arbuthnot Road, Central, Hong Kong
 780 sq.ft.
2 Bedroom(s), including 0 Ensuite 1 Bathrooms
Combined Living and Dining Room

Google both if you want to look at each (neither have nice views so it's not a "view" your paying for). Do the same for Paris, London, New York… the idea that Australian property is super expensive is based on twisted statistics.

Size is the other issue, the average Australian block is one of the largest in the world, if you focus on flats/units (so plain square meters of living space) you start to have something to evenly compare with… and once you start comparing with that in mind you see figures like the above (Hong Kong VS Sydney)

Anyhow back to work… got to pay off the mortgage

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jul 31 2008, 03:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

USA vs AUS... It's like comparing apples with oranges when it comes to home loans.

First off the "Media", it's in their interest to stir up "fear" as it sells papers (facts sometimes take a backseat), lets just keep that in the back of the mind.

"Interest Only" loans, 100-105% Lending & Large "Honeymoon Rate"s created the issue in the USA.... These issues don't effect the Australian market to anywhere near to the same extent.

Up until recently people in America borrowed 100-105% of their home value, on a "Interest Only" arrangement and more so on a "Honeymoon Rate". After the Honeymoon rate finished the shit hit the fan and people suddenly discovered they borrowed more then they could service.... further more they also had no equity to draw on as the loan was interest only.

Now in Australia almost all the loans are based on your ability to pay "principal + interest on the principal", interest only loans are not common here.

Add into that 100-105% loans aren't common in AUS, most are 90-95%... The only place you normally see 100%+ loans in Australia are brand new developments in the outer suburbs. Not surprisingly prices in these suburbs have dropped, those that couldn't afford the inner suburbs (so those already struggling) borrowed more then they could service and when interest rates rose the trouble started.

There's also a "Generation" issue... Gen Y want their first house to be their "dream" house but that’s a issue for another day.

Anyhow the short of this is both markets (America Vs Australia) are very different...

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Jul 9 2008, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: swuzzlebubble on Wednesday 09/07/08 12:49pm

Weight falls under "Indirect Discrimination"
"A party may be able to lawfully discriminate indirectly where they can show that the policy or practice is reasonable in all the circumstances."

You can have a rule based on weight, but it has to be applied "in all the circumstances".

You can't waive the fee for a 75 year old female confined to a wheel chair AND then charge a 35 year old male weighing 145kg (but otherwise healthy)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 9 2008, 11:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (Roberts5 @ Wednesday 09/07/08 11:01am)

Roberts5

Yes there is a human side, but you can't throw economics out the window because it doesn't suit your issue.

If you personally drove her in your car from point A to point B you would be "directly" paying for that "extra cushioning". I don't see you suggesting that the government should be issuing you with a fuel rebate to cover that "extra" cost.

In some cases weight is not controllable (as you highlight), but in most cases it is. The issue here is anti-discrimination laws mean you can't have "two rules".

I am all for allowing exceptions in cases such as your mother in law but in doing so it's only a matter of time before some 35 year old male weighing 145kg (but otherwise healthy) sues the airline for charging him extra.

A flight from Sydney to London (using a 747) there's an aprox 15 to 1 ratio. For everyone 1kg of person, you need 15kg of fuel.

Two people, one is 80kg the other is 115kg. At 15:1 and the cost of Jet-A the second person costs a couple of hundred dollars more to transport.

Jet-A has increased by 40% in the last year... the per kg model is coming, either suggest a change in anti-discrimination laws (to allow for cases like your mother in law) or tell her to expect to pay more.

Cheer
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 8 2008, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Roberts5 & Sirob

How about reading the topic before making comment ?

A person's "Age" does not effect fuel economy... What is being discussed is charging ALL passengers based on weight as "mass" as a direct effect on the energy required to move it from point A to point B.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 8 2008, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: Damon22 on Tuesday 08/07/08 02:18pm

The Frequent Flyer annual weigh-in is a very good idea, that way it allows for electronic check-in

As for everyone else, it's as simple as building a "stand on" weigh plate (i.e. when you walk upto to the check-in counter your standing on a 6 x 6 weight plate). It weights everything including luggage and you then get presented a visa card receipt to sign.

The whole "weight" non-discrimination idea IMO won't last too much longer. As a society we can't afford a total anti-discrimination policy on weight (the health care costs are too great)

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 8 2008, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: Damon22 on Tuesday 08/07/08 09:46am

Anti-Discrimination laws are based around the idea of having one rule for all (i.e. you can't have one rule for people under 100kg and another for people over 100kg)

With that in mind you can put in place a single rule that is "legal" from an Anti-Discrimation point of view….ALL passengers are weighted and charged a set rate per kilogram per kilometre travelled.

Don't laugh the airlines have already looked at this model, it does have two major draw backs:
~ Check-in times.. Not only would it take a lot of time to weight people you then have to charge them (so online check in goes out the window)
~ Variable cost/profit models (they don't now how much they are going to earn until you arrive at the airport)

It's only a matter of time before they apply a per kg model…. They just need a more automatic way to weigh & charge you

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jul 4 2008, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Bats
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 24 2008, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (alonso @ Tuesday 24/06/08 11:06am)

Hi Alonso

IMO it's not the end of "mass air travel"... It's the beginning of the end of "mass air travel powered by oil"

Have a look at the below link, they are already playing with the idea of planes powered by fuel cells.

http://www.horizonfuelcell.com/aerospace.htm

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 12 2008, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

A dust storm appears over Mali, Sahara Desert - 6/6/2001 (Image courtesy of the Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, NASA Johnson Space Center)
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 12 2008, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

A cloud wake appears on the downwind side of Isla Socorro, Mexico - 2/12/2000 (Image courtesy of the Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, NASA Johnson Space Center)

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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 12 2008, 04:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Stumbled over some really nice photo's… Photo's from space often seem very "flat" as they are normally looking directly down, but the angle of these ones just seem to highlight the "thin" atmosphere that covers this big rock

Cumulonimbus Cloud over Africa - 2/5/2008 (Image courtesy of the Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, NASA Johnson Space Center)
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: Jun 6 2008, 10:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

Bumper sticker around Sydney hah hah
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mminion
Posted on: May 8 2008, 11:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: wolverine on Thursday 08/05/08 10:57am

"they are retaining the brand and staff"

The 300 or so Westnet staff "should" improve iinet's support. Skilled IT staff in WA (especially at the moment) are worth their weight in gold. Forgetting Westnet's business for a second this increase in staff levels will help iinet support/grow their business.

The question now is.. Who's Next ?
  Forum: By Share Code

mminion
Posted on: Apr 9 2008, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (forrestgump @ Wednesday 09/04/08 02:04pm)

Hi Forrest

I've PM'ed Wolverine asking him to make comment on this topic, from memory he is masochist like yourself wink.gif

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 2 2008, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: mosaic1996 on Wednesday 02/04/08 01:17pm

http://business.theage.com.au/a-nightmare-...2zx.html?page=2

"A few observations; the original storyline that the bulk of Opes exposure was Top 200 Australian shares would appear to be calculated on alphabet, or perhaps in view of the small mineral resources index, rather than on market capitalisation.

Many of the holdings are substantial and some more than 19.9%, which is the trigger for compulsory acquisition.

This means that ANZ may technically be forced to make takeover bids. Clearly that hasn't happened and there would be little trouble in getting a waiver from ASIC on this one.

Still, substantial shareholding notices have failed to materialise for recent changes in 5%-plus holdings."

Hi Mosaic,

See above, It seems TerryA, Directors of SLA & Myself aren't the only ones suggesting that ANZ may need to fill in some paper work.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 2 2008, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

QUOTE (BSA @ Wednesday 02/04/08 12:26pm)

Hi BSA,

IMO it's getting to the point in where I believe the ASX needs to place ALL effected listed companies (around 700 of them) into a trading halt.

That way everyone has 3 days (or longer if needed) to contact ANZ/Merrils and therefore work out the issues.

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mminion
Posted on: Apr 2 2008, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 2,415

In reply to: TerryA on Wednesday 02/04/08 11:24am

Hi TerryA

That's a very good point. More so since ANZ are "new" owners of the shares why haven't we seen a bucket load of "Substantial Holder" announcements ?

Cheers
Matt
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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