CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

[KRD]

One topic (of many) I'd like to see discussed in a year-end update from management is the total number of EPP patients currently receiving treatment and the projected total for FY20. FY19 revenue of $32m would imply that there are currently only about 500 patients receiving implants. Roll out commenced in 2016; a slow intake of patients to say the least. With many EU treatment centers now firmly in place when will there be a significant jump?

[IntiRaymi]

In Reply To: mrdax's post @ Yesterday, 08:10 PM

They have 4 locations highlighted in the UK on the map of their distribution model. Is this just their original intentions or do they think they’re confident that NICE will yield?

[mrdax]

In Reply To: seeva222's post @ Yesterday, 06:18 PM

Check the answer to the question @ 8:55
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39O8oxM1Cn8#t=8m54s

[seeva222]

In Reply To: landrews's post @ Yesterday, 05:47 PM

That would probably put the adult population at at least 2,500. > $270 AUD

[landrews]

In Reply To: seeva222's post @ Yesterday, 05:38 PM

He mentioned it in his interview with Alan Kohler a day or two after FDA approval.

[seeva222]

In Reply To: landrews's post @ Yesterday, 05:01 PM

4,500 EPP patients in the US? Where did you see that?

[landrews]

In Reply To: investek's post @ Yesterday, 01:12 AM

Thanks Investek, very interesting to re-read over the pricing strategy details from the 2010 AGM (i'd forgotten most of it).

So they knew well in advance that annual pricing above 15k Euro was possible, but would require "clear evidence of significant improvement in Qol" and that it "may require long and costly negotiations". The ability to show "clear" evidence of Qol was obviously an issue, but regardless they introduced a price level 4 x this. Thankfully Germany finally approved it, although the roll out there since seems to be restricted, and we all know about the ongoing drama's with NICE.

So why set the price so high? I guess it easier to distribute to 350 patients at 60k Euro, than 1400 at 15k. Also, this pricing research was just for the EU. The US has and will pay much more, and Clinuvel's research would have also indicated this (although they haven't released any details). I doubt they would have ever set the price this high to begin with, if they expected "long and costly negotiations" in the US. The price was always set for the US market, and roll out there should be much easier, and therefore far more lucrative.

Wolgen commented recently that there are 4,500 EPP patients in the US, and the slide from 2010 indicates >4,000. I'd be surprised if they can't be treating 800 - 1,000 of them in the next couple of years, at about $100,000 AUD p/a each.

Who knows, if interest rates in Oz drop to .25% and the RBA start QE, it might exchange to $120,000 p/a!

I agree with your comments about there being plenty of (potentially very positive) trial data, that has been strategically withheld - SU, AK, HHD to name a few. I don't hold great hopes for PLE but who knows.

I'd doubt the shorts will maintain a 7% position into June quarter next year..... which means the SP only has one way to go after Xmas!

[KRD]

In Reply To: Johnny H's post @ Yesterday, 06:56 AM

With full market penetration EU receipts will likely be $40M to $50M. US sales will take off much faster. Combined, EPP sales alone will exceed $100M within 3 years. In FY2018 and FY2019 profit was equal to 56% of Receipts from Customers. That % should increase over time particularly with a more uniform approach to sales in the US. Using a conservative 56% profit and $100M in revenue EPS should rise to approximately $1.15 from its most recent $0.38, triple where it is today. In 3 years the company should be close to getting sales for vitiligo treatment off the ground, will have some revenue coming in from the OTC cosmetic line, and should be close to one or more other indications. The share price should be a minimum of $60 in December 2022 using very conservative projections and certainly could be significantly higher.

[LJS]

In Reply To: polyphemus's post @ Yesterday, 08:22 AM

Correct. As I remember PW indicative price per implant quoted at an earlier AGM was $7000 AUD per implant. After all the negotiations and pharmacovigilance requirements, he negotiated a higher price.

[polyphemus]

In Reply To: Johnny H's post @ Yesterday, 06:56 AM

The graphic displays EPP when the annual cost was unknown - it was expected to be between 15k-20k Euro per annum, although at the time Italy was indicating 32K Euro.

As we now know that PW was able to organise a 70k Euro per annum uniform price. This is expected to be carried over into the US.

So double or quadruple the graphics estimate of $ market size for EPP.