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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Jul 22 2021, 11:47 PM
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Three days into the week… and we’ve seen a 1% decline, a 1% gain, a bearish pattern triggered, a bearish pattern negated, a bullish pattern threatened, the 50 Day MA successfully tested and a key uptrend line respected.



2

Indicator-wise, the 14-Day RSI held in the low 40s again. And while the odds suggest an eventual return to overbought territory at some point, if the same pace is repeated from earlier this year, that may take a bit longer to play out.



3
The Williams %R indicator, however, gets pushed around with more ease on big moves. And that’s nearly back to overbought already. This may mean things could slow down again over the short-term, too



4
From a pattern perspective, it was close, but the most recent breakout held again. The 4,460-target now is just 2.3% away.



5

There were a number of marginal head fakes in March, May and June before those patterns worked.

If the action repeats what we’ve seen over the last few months, another trustworthy breakout may take some time to materialize.



6

So far, the back and forth price action has continued to fit into the YTD upward sloping channel. That, too, was threatened on Monday but never gave way.



7

If/when the SPX does make new highs again, we’d like to see the Cumulative Adv-Dec Line breakout, too, at relatively the same time. The last two days have helped, which was especially important after last week’s 70% negative reading and this Monday’s 15% day.

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so. SPX gonna targeting 4600ish!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 22 2021, 08:45 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jul 21 2021, 05:58 AM

market snap back from it's 50 day's ma

buy the dips still work, until it is not!! blush.gif
seems all time high for SPX [ target of 4600ish] more likely.

so as asx200. looks gonna over come 7400ish in near term!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 21 2021, 05:58 AM
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As we know, the SPX spun at its 50-Day MA yesterday, but when the index has dropped back to (or even through) the line over the last year and change, it often tested the moving average AGAIN soon thereafter.
NO pullback (not even last September’s 10% correction) has shaken the SPX loose from its uptrend just yet. And a major reason for this is that bearish chart patterns have failed to play out. There is another chance to change this now, as yesterday’s early break below the 4,290 zone triggered the latest bearish pattern (target 4,185).
The SPX’s 14-Day RSI finished at 43.7, which is near the lower part of its range since April, 2020. The SPX got close to the Lower Bollinger Band discussed yesterday, as well.
SPX: 28% stocks > 20 Day MAs: This is near the lower end of the range, but still is not extreme. The % got lower this past June and January and a handful of times last year, too.
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SPX tested it's 50 day's ma and bounced right back up -----AGAIN !! I CAN see shorts on the run!! [include me]
but the one day sell off that shake the "bulls" i reckon!!


as for asx200, . stay aside , until things clearer......

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 20 2021, 09:30 AM
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Indices: US advise against travel to UK
Bond yields were broadly lower as investors remained concerned that the rise of the Delta Variant will weigh on growth. Global stock market indices were broadly lower as investors rushed for the exit, which saw the S&P 500 shed -1.5% with all sectors in the red, led by energy and financial sectors. The Dow Jones fell -2% and cut through its 50-day eMA to a 4-week low whilst the Nasdaq 100 held up relatively well at -0.9% after gapping lower.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) is on track to break a 9-month bullish streak, unless it can recoup the -7.8% lost this month with the 8 trading sessions remaining in July. At the current rate of volatility, it is about 1-2 trading days away from testing the January low, but the 200-day eMA is also in the vicinity so there is potential for technical support, even if only briefly so.
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SPX is right on 50 day ma at it's current level, if it go under 4250 next two session, then bulls should give it up .imho

asx200----- the future is under 7225, more likely more selling for our market when our cash market opens, the down side target is 7025ish for near term.
if one try to scalping trade ---the it might bounce at 7100ish!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 19 2021, 10:03 AM
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keep eye on 7225ish for asx200, it is sort of key level for investors and traders for near term . imho!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 15 2021, 08:27 AM
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https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/delta-lo...20210714-p589m0

Delta lockdown will shrink GDP, cost thousands of jobs
John Kehoe

Sydney’s prolonged lockdown for an anticipated two months will cause the national economy to shrink in the current quarter and cost thousands of jobs according to economists, stalling momentum in Australia’s bounceback from the virus recession.

The $5 billion in government support payments to businesses and households, however, will cushion the blow and help the economy to follow past lockdown and reopening trends by swiftly rebounding once restrictions are eased, market economists said.

The spread of the highly infectious COVID-19 delta variant, Melbourne on edge over the discovery of seven new virus cases and Western Australia restricting the entry of Victorians has exacerbated uncertainty over the outlook for businesses, investors and consumers.

After 97 locally acquired COVID-19 cases took NSW’s total active community cases to 785, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian on Wednesday extended the greater Sydney lockdown for at least two weeks to July 30, taking the total shutdown to five weeks at a minimum.

The intensifying downside risks as a consequence of the virus lockdown could force the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider delaying a planned tapering of its $200 billion government bond-buying program from September to November, ANZ economists said.
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but from RBNZ to some others central banks start to tapering,
i don't think they are aggressive enough though!! ohmy.gif

 


early birds
post Posted: Jul 14 2021, 09:44 AM
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The Russell 2000 (small-cap) value stocks fell -2.03% compared to the Russell 2000’s -1.74% decline. The Nasdaq 100 printed a pinbar reversal after failing to hold onto its intraday record high, effectively closing flat. The Nasdaq banks index fell -2.00%, biotech sector was down -1.09% whilst FAANGS escaped the pressure by closing -0.01% on the day. The S&P 500 printed a bearish outside day and closed at a two-day low, falling -0.35%. 10 of its 11 sectors closed in the red led by real estate (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary (-1.17%). Still, these are not terrifying numbers overall and there is plenty of earnings reports to mull over before we see if equities extend their downside or break to new highs.

The ASX 200 is expected to open 4-poijnts higher (effectively flat). Take note of yesterday’s bearish pinbar which reaffirmed its sideways range around 7216 – 7370, which is basically within the bearish engulfing candle on June 21st. That said, bulls may need to wait for a break above 7403 before popping open the champagne. Until then, range-trading strategies are preferred between 7216 – 7403.


====================



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 12 2021, 09:58 AM
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On a closing basis the ASX 200 has been confined at an 87-point ranger over the past three weeks. Promising breakout patterns have failed to be confirmed and breaks have instead reversed, providing range trading strategies with optimum conditions. So, if prices can hold above the 7216.6 low then perhaps we may see another bounce back inside its range today.
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with sydney virus situation..... i'm more bearish than 7216 low. think asx200 might dip through that level. imho though!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 5 2021, 08:51 AM
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It’s a fairly quiet week for economic data, albeit with a couple of highlights worth watching. For AUD and ASX200 traders, Tuesday’s RBA meeting will be worth watching, though Governor Lowe and company are unlikely to make any immediate changes with Sydney locked down on COVID fears. We’ll also get an more details on what prompted the big hawkish shift from the Fed last month in Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. Finally, the G20 Meeting on Thursday and Friday will garner some headlines, though the immediate market impact may be limited.

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to me----- RBA will keep jaw boning "loose monetary policy" . thus , asx200 might pop up little towards to 7400ish!! imho though!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 2 2021, 09:45 AM
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Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in July 55/93 years (59% of the time), with an average move of +1.6%.
Over the last 20 years, the biggest July advance occurred in 2009 (+7.41%); the worst in the last 20 years took place in 2002 (-7.90%).
The SPX has advanced in July 13/20 years, with an average move of +1.2%. And it’s been a lot better lately, with the index having been higher in July six straight years starting in 2015. It’s been higher 7/9 since 2012, as well. The average move over that time frame has been +2.5%.
The 20 Year track shows a pretty consistent upward path for the month, which then typically has led to a sub-par August.
With the SPX’s 2.2% gain in June, the index logged its fifth consecutive monthly advance. This marks the SEVENTH run of at least 5 straight positive months over the last decade.
Three of the prior six stopped at five. The longest monthly winning streak since 2010 was 10 from April’17 through January’18. In the 1950s, there were THREE 11-month win streaks.

The SPX concluded the quarter with its fifth straight DAILY gain, as well. This is the THIRD streak of at least five in 2021.

Since 2017, there now have been 23 winning streaks of at least five. Of the past 22, the SPX was higher 10 trading days later 73% of the time, with an average move of 0.70%.

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they gave the stats , bullish as it is.

we might see some up side for asx200 today or tomorrow. imho.

 
 


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