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Commodities, General discussion of commodities
early birds
post Posted: Jul 16 2021, 09:30 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/15/oil-markets...uel-stocks.html

Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses as investors braced for increased supplies after a compromise deal between leading OPEC producers and as U.S. fuel stocks rose, raising concerns over demand in the world’s largest consume

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isn't it too obvious that oil price gonna going down, regardless of "deal or no deal" from OPECD meeting??
now finally they had agreement , that might put limited down side on the oil price
if there is still no deal, oil price might collapse as everyone pumping out oil as much as they can!! imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 15 2021, 08:37 AM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/oil-markets...de-imports.html


Prices fell earlier in the session after the two Gulf producers agreed for the UAE to increase its baseline production in an output deal that members of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, reached last year, an OPEC+ source told Reuters.

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reached agreement of production rise?? market seems think there will be more oil and less demand in oil market going forward!! imho!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 14 2021, 09:57 AM
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Oil prices defined the stronger dollar to rise 1.5% following a report from IEA (International Energy Agency) forecasting a tight oil supply. WTI futures rose to 75.21 which places intraday support at 73.68 whilst brent rose 0.6% to close at 76.44 and retest its broken trendline.
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my thoughts is OIL price will go down likely as OPEC and others failed twice for the meeting as to how much production increase they will have
that will lead to wild production increase at near future , thus will push down the oil price as the result!! IMHO



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 3 2021, 09:07 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jul 1 2021, 02:18 PM

Commodities Price Index Jumps 40% for Year

If you looked at the performance of key commodities in the year to June, it’s no wonder the Reserve Bank’s Commodity Price Index surged a record 40% to an all-time high last month, capping off what was a remarkable 12 months for Australian trade and the economy generally.

That 40% rise and the factors behind it help explain part of the Australian economy rebound story over 2020-21.

The RBA said the index reached a reading of 131.2, up from a reading of just over 93 in June 2020. The previous high was a reading of 123 in October, 2008, as the GFC was imploding – then it was driven by oil and coal prices.

A 9% rise in the value of the Aussie dollar against the greenback over the year 9clipped in June by around 2%) restricted the gain to the still stunning 40% in Australian dollar terms.

The index reflects the 100% plus surge in iron ore prices (114% for 62% Fines), 84% for oil, 55% for copper, 38% for wheat and rises in many other commodities over the year.

But the main driver has been the surge in iron ore prices – besides the jump in 62% Fe fines prices which reflected the rebound last month after a selloff in late May (after record highs were reached around May 12).

That saw the index rose 6.8% in Australian dollar terms in June, to cap a record year. A 2% drop in the value of the dollar against the greenback added a bit of last-minute cream.

The RBA said in its brief commentary on the index that preliminary estimates for iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal and LNG export prices are being used for the most recent months, based on market information.

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with endless money printing, think 40% up is not enough one would say!!!!

 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 1 2021, 02:18 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 3 2021, 09:00 AM

the EoFY rundown on Commodities

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/07/01/com...une-30-edition/




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2021, 09:00 AM
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Chinese Whispers Send Ore Prices Skyrocketing

Reports that authorities in Tangshan, one of China’s major steel producing centres, are talking about relaxing tough rules brought in last April to cut pollution and smog emissions from the city’s huge steelmaking sector have sent iron ore prices soaring for a second day.

FastmarketsMB said the price of all three grades of ore – 62% Fe fines 58% Fe fines and 65% Fe fines rose more than 4% on Tuesday after similar rises on Monday.

That saw the prices of the three big iron ore exporters enjoy a good day and help drive the ASX 200 up by 1% to a new closing high.

BHP shares rose 3% to $49.30, Fortescue shares rose 2% to $23.28 and Rio shares closed at $126.96, up 1.8% but were over $128 at one stage in the session.

Other reports suggested that some capacity cut ideas might be eased, while other reports said the operation of Basic Oxygen Converters (BOS) operations at steel mills (which convert the pig iron into crude steel) might be exempted from the crackdown on pollution as they are not big emitters.

Sintering plants, coke ovens and blast furnaces emit more pollutants, according to reports.

Reuters reported that pollution and capacity cuts are still being discussed in the government.

Iron ore prices reached $US208.67 ($268.72) tonne for 62% Fe fines. That was a rise of $US9.84 a tonne or more than 4.5%. The price of 58% Fe fines rose $US8.15 or more than 5% to $US181 a tonne. The price of 65% Fe fines were up less than 3% (or $US7.10 a tonne) to $239.90 a tonne.

That still leaves prices $US25 to $US30 a tonne short of the all-time highs reached on May 12.

The production cuts were in response to the Tangshan government’s crackdown on steel mills, with the aim of cutting pollution levels and halving China’s emissions.

Fastmarkets and Reuters reported that the municipal government of Tangshan – China’s steelmaking hub in the north of the country – is reported to have suggested that basic oxygen furnaces no longer come under production restrictions due to the low level of pollutants that they emit.

In a notice released late on Monday May 31, it also suggested a relaxation of the rates of emissions cuts by steel mills in the city to 20-30% from the more stringent 30-50% currently in place.

The larger cuts were announced in April amid a lot of song and dance from local and central government departments and officials and the reports of backsliding might indicate the changes are not written in stone in Beijing and some slippage could happen – which could be bullish for iron ore prices and demand.

It suggested the rate for Chunxing Special Steel, Tangshan Plate, Donghua Steel, Xinda Steel and Songting Steel to be lowered to 30% from 50%, and for another 15 steel mills’ emissions reduction rate to be lowered by 20%, instead of 30%.

This is in line with the central Chinese government’s proposal of using market-oriented methods to cool down red-hot commodity markets, including steel, Fastmarkets reported.
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from our own sharecafe




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early birds
post Posted: May 20 2021, 09:46 AM
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Commodities: Oil weaker on multiple fronts, gold shaken at its highs
Well, there was no major announcement of US rejoining the nuclear Iran deal as speculated by a Russian Ambassador. Yet it didn’t prevent oil from falling due to several drivers; broader risk-off sentiment, a stronger dollar, concerns of a potential Iran deal, falling demand from China and rising coronavirus cases in Asia.

WTI futures fell over -3% and to a three-week low before finding support at $62.00. Brent futures fell -3.25% and closed beneath trendline support on the daily chart.

It was a volatile yet, ultimately, directionless session for gold after a false break above 1875 resistance was quickly reversed and the day closed with a wide legged Rikshaw Man Doji. The stronger dollar certainly played its part but its failure to close above key resistance should warn bulls that a corrective phase could be due – just one day after Silver.

Silver’s bearish pinbar on Tuesday was confirmed with yesterday’s sell-off back towards 27.0. It remains within a bullish channel, in line with our core view, but we need to see volatility subside before reconsidering longs.

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only silver is my bullish bet. think of silver will out perform all other majors next few months!! imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 30 2021, 09:13 AM
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Commodities: Oil extends its lead, gold falls from 200-day eMA
Oil extended its lead to a six-week high on higher oil demand forecasts and positive economic data. WTI currently trades around 64.80 and its next resistance levels are 66.40 and 67.98, whilst next major resistance for brent is 70.0.

It was a volatile session for gold, initially rising to test its 200-day eMA but falling over 1% due to rising yields and stronger economic data. Whilst our core view remains bullish, yesterday’s bearish outside candle pierced 1760 support, so we’d prefer to step aside until volatility subsides.

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oil looked strong even with weekly chart.... ... shake my head.



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 28 2021, 10:10 AM
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The boom in iron ore prices continues and South Korean steelmaker Posco on Monday provided a good explanation as to why that is happening – business is going very well indeed for one of the world’s major steel companies.

The company confirmed updated guidance issued in March that it earned $US1.39 billion in the March quarter on revenue of more than $US18 billion. That was almost double the $US635 million earned in the first quarter of 2020.

It was the company’s highest quarterly profit since the second quarter of 2011, as steel prices rose sharply due to demand outpacing supply and the surge in iron ore costs as well.

The world’s fifth-biggest steelmaker said first-quarter operating profit surged 120% as “profit from all sectors, such as steel, global and infrastructure, and new growth, improved”, including a 12% sequential jump in the price of its basic carbon steel product.

Posco buys a lot of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and hasn’t been averse to paying the near record prices of more than $US180 a tonne for the 62% fe fines product from Australia or the 65%.

It owns 12.5% of the Roy Hill project in the Pilbara (now the world’s fifth largest iron ore company) and buys more than 6 million tonnes of ore a year based on its shareholding.

It buys millions of tonnes of metallurgical coal from Australia as well – more than 25 million tonnes a year.

It has invested close to $5 billion in mining operations in NSW and Queensland (met coal) and iron ore in WA (Roy Hill). In 2019-20 it bought around $8 billion worth of mostly coal and iron ore (the value is running much higher this year because iron ore prices have more than doubled in the past year).

In an earnings call, Posco said it expected steel supply from Australia, Brazil and South Africa to rise in the second half of the year after falling in the first quarter.

It said steel prices were likely to stabilise gradually compared to the first half as demand was expected to fall slightly because of output cuts in China due to tougher environmental curbs.

Global steel demand is expected to grow by 5.8% this year, higher than the 4.1% estimate from last October, as economies recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuelling demand from the rebounding auto and construction sectors, the World Steel Association said this month.

The story is the same in China – strong demand, high economies of scale and solid pricing means record or near record profits and the ability to pay more for iron ore from Australia and Brazil, which means big profits for BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals, Roy Hill and Vale from Brazil.

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from our own sharecafe....

 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 27 2021, 09:47 AM
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Commodities:
Oil prices are refusing to break higher, yet both WTI and brent futures have reaffirmed their support levels. Rising coronavirus cases in India are weighing on prices, but not by enough to send prices lower. Perhaps the US supplying vaccine doses could help prices break higher in due course.

Gold produced a small bullish hammer yesterday and prices remains above the untested 1760/65 support zone. Our bias remains bullish above this level and the next target remains at 1835, projected from the double bottom pattern from 1676.

Silver remains in a corrective phase in a bullish channel and printed a small bullish engulfing candle yesterday. Our bias remains bullish above the 25.50/62 support zone.

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wondering where is all these bullish steam come from?? unsure.gif

 
 


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