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China the monster.
nipper
post Posted: Today, 10:17 AM
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There was an article by Lingling Wei in The Wall Street Journal, published on 20 September:

Xi Jinping Aims to Rein In Chinese Capitalism, Hew to Mao's Socialist Vision

The following is a brief extract from the article.

QUOTE
Underpinning Mr. Xi's actions is an ideological preference rooted in Mao's development theories, which call state capitalism a temporary phase that can help China's economy catch up to the West before being replaced by socialism.

An ardent follower of Mao, Mr. Xi has preached to party members that the hybrid model has passed its use by date.


A 2018 article in the party's main theoretical journal, Qiushi, or Seeking Truth, laid bare his belief:

Chinese practise shows that once the socialist transformation is completed, the basic socialist system

with public ownership as the main body is established(and) state capitalism, as a transitional economic form,

will complete its historical mission and withdraw from the historical stage.






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
plastic
post Posted: Sep 17 2021, 04:59 AM
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Looks like Evergrande and their US$305bn of debt is going to be the first brick to fall to precipitate what will become known as the Great Fall of China.

A major correction coming. Margin call time.

Remember Japan at the end of the eighties?

Watch out for the banks and don't forget the old adage; cash is king.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 3 2021, 04:24 PM
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The Chinese economy stalled this month as the country tried to stamp out a surge in coronavirus cases and contended with the ongoing shipping crisis.
An official survey of manufacturing activity fell to 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July. That was just above the 50 point mark indicating expansion rather than contraction, but still the slowest rate of growth since the start of the pandemic.

Service industries, which now account for a larger slice of the world's second biggest economy, fared even worse. The non manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index plunged to 47.5 from 53.3 in July, the first contraction since February 2020.

China's economy initially coped with the pandemic much better than many of its peers, recording growth last year as others shrank. But fallout from the Delta variant and their zero COVID approach has wrought havoc in recent weeks. The country's worst coronavirus outbreak in a year spurred authorities to take dramatic measures to stop new infections, including locking down cities, cancelling flights and suspending trade. The aggressive and uncompromising strategy appears to have contained Delta ... at the expense of economic activity.

The latest surveys suggest that China's economy contracted last month as virus disruptions weighed heavily on services activity, Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a Tuesday research note. He added that the non-manufacturing PMI drop was driven entirely by disruption in the services sector as movement restrictions were reimposed and consumers became more cautious amid the renewed virus flare-up.

Ongoing problems with the global supply chain have worsened matters. Global trade has been in chaos for months as manufacturing picks up and consumer demand explodes, and supply chains have been further snarled by container shortages, coronavirus related factory shutdowns in Vietnam and the lingering effects of port closures in China. ...........

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-...58-9acb25fdae33



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 27 2021, 07:53 PM
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The old spectre, of an overloaded electricity grid and high demand, could be leading to brownouts at their factories in China. Was chatting with a rep from a large multinational that is having problems getting their products made, let alone out the door, into a box, onto a ship and through the logistics chain to either the shop or distribution centres, both here and in other markets (N Am and Europe).

A response by his company has been to move machinery elsewhere, Vietnam and India mentioned, but each of those throw up challenges.

Going to be an interesting peak consumer season leading up to XMas.... (and it is still August)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: May 13 2021, 03:52 PM
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https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/13/chinas-agin...pply-chain.html

The trend of the old age dependency is going to rise … This is a warning not only for China, but also across the whole world, as China is the core of the supply chain,” Raymond Yeung, Greater China chief economist at ANZ, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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aging problem will hit most of the country!! that is sure thing, that is the reason i bought those aged care sector years before. but i did wrong timing---too early!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 5 2021, 11:16 AM
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https://www.thewirechina.com/2021/04/04/boxed-in-on-china/

Balance-of-payments deficits, not the so-called China problem, are the macroeconomic source of America’s overall trade deficit.

.....

===========================

i can't open up the whole article -----------but i can have guess what STEPHEN S. ROACH brag about!!

he is right or wrong, there is one thing for us everyday little people-------the world needs peace , keeps tit for tat innocent people will be hurt the most, not those scumbag politicians in the end. imho



 


nipper
post Posted: Mar 26 2021, 03:59 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 26 2021, 02:47 PM

he is a diplomat ... and talking about diplomacy.

Trade; a different story ....always been everyone for themselves.





--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 26 2021, 02:47 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Mar 26 2021, 12:24 PM

He also said the escalating pattern of trade punishment had generated "sympathy" for Australia and hardened attitudes towards China around the globe.

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sympathy???
canadian had a lot of sympathy for aussies, but they try to take a cuts for chinese coal markets as aussie been pushed out!
french had a lot of sympathy for us too, but they are in full force to take up the wine market that was for aussie wine maker worked so hard for 8---10 years..
list goes on. sympathy?? yeah right!! wink.gif

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The unusually blunt comments from Mr Fletcher were first reported by The Australian newspaper
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my guess is -----there is no way to repair this damage, so why not just keep shooting!!

as i said before when trust is lost------ it is really hard to gain it back.

give you a figure ------more than 30% of steel used for------------- from bullets for ak47---ballistic missile----fight jat....... battle ships....... aircraft carrier .....
what is % of iron ore we sell to china now??


Said 'Thanks' for this post: indeficit  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 26 2021, 12:24 PM
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Australia's ambassador to China says Beijing's trade behaviour is 'vindictive'

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Australia's ambassador in Beijing has labelled China's campaign of economic punishment against Australia "vindictive" as the diplomatic relationship between the two countries remains stuck in a rut.
Last night, officials from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade confirmed that Australian trade with China had plummeted across almost all industries, with overall figures propped up largely by Beijing's strong demand for iron ore.

In the last nine months, China's government has targeted several Australian industries — including barley, coal, timber and lobsters — as it tries to force Canberra to give ground on a wide range of disputes.

No new sanctions have been unveiled this year, although the wine industry believes tariffs on Australian wine first introduced last year will be locked in — and possibly increased — within days.

And yesterday, Australia's ambassador to China Graham Fletcher delivered a caustic assessment of China's behaviour while speaking to Australian businesses via a video link from Beijing.

QUOTE
I'm not sure China realises the damage that is occurring both in Australia and internationally, Mr Fletcher told the Australian China Business Council. It's been exposed as quite unreliable as a trading partner and even vindictive.
The unusually blunt comments from Mr Fletcher were first reported by The Australian newspaper.

The ambassador also warned Australian businesses which rely too heavily on the Chinese market could be left exposed to campaigns of economic coercion directed by the government.

QUOTE
You've just got to imagine that, unexpectedly, you may lose your China market for no good reason other than that Beijing has decided to send a message to Canberra," he said. "Now that's a very unwelcome situation, but I think frankly that's where we are at.
He also said the escalating pattern of trade punishment had generated "sympathy" for Australia and hardened attitudes towards China around the globe.

QUOTE
We hear a lot of sympathy and support quietly from a lot of countries you might not necessarily expect around the world who can see what's going on, and say, 'Look, we don't want to live in a world either where China is behaving like this and is able to set the agenda', he said
...https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-26/australian-ambassador-to-china-says-trade-behaviour-vindictive/100030700

.
.and you can bet this has been cleared with DFAT and the highest levels of Government



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 17 2021, 07:12 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Mar 13 2021, 05:20 PM

hi triage
please tell me what do you think of this link.!!!!!!
i know the guy is biased , but he did point out some facts.......
i'm not against or for this link, but it did make me think........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32UKBOJN0Eg




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