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Gold, Discussion
henrietta
post Posted: Aug 19 2021, 09:40 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 19 2021, 09:05 AM

Well thanks Nipper ! Wonder how i missed this thread ....... I did look .... really ....... and was a bit surprised I couldn't find one. Then again, my wife tells me all the time that I have had " a boy's look " . I'll try to find some answers. biggrin.gif

Cheers
J



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"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 19 2021, 09:05 AM
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oh, that gold thread

QUOTE
In the absence of a Gold thread, I'll put this question here.
It used to be that when stocks in general went up, gold went down, and when stocks dived , gold went up.
Now, gold just seems to follow the indices.
Why is it so ?
Julius Sumner Miller!!
There are lots of indices.


Nobody knows what a safe have is? We have had so much financial repression, and free money and now a pandemic. Bitcoin may have become the fear proxy, is another theory.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 9 2021, 04:59 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Aug 9 2021, 11:57 AM

QUOTE
........... after the much better US jobs report for July saw bond yields and the US dollar both rise sharply, factors which always batter gold prices lower, we saw Comex gold futures suffer their largest fall in months as the price slid 2.6% to settle at $US1,763.10 an ounce .... a fall of $US45 on the day. Silver futures also slumped on Comex, down 3.8% to $US23.30 an ounce at the end. But Comex copper resisted the panic selling and only dipped less than 0.4% to $US4.33 a pound.


https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/08/08/com...utters-is-gold/


It was a short sharp selloff. Some rebound, as is usually the case, but now the pundits are wailing ... Is gold a store of safety after all??






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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Aug 9 2021, 11:57 AM
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how come gold has fallen out of bed?


(Olympics over??)




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: May 21 2021, 01:14 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 20 2021, 06:57 PM

The Case for Gold

I have been making the investment case for gold since 2005. That was the point that the first physical gold ETF was listed, and I bought some. Then I bought some more, then I bought some more, and now I have it coming out of my ears.
You could skip this note and just read Alan Greenspan's 1966 essay Gold and Economic Freedom, but his is a little more dense and ideological. His goes something like this: A Treasury bond is a claim, and as you issue more bonds, eventually you have more claims than assets.


That's when inflation happens. We are there.
How We Got Here

Gold has been going up, in fits and starts, since the year 2000.
Y2K was a special time in monetary history .... interest rates were high and currencies were strong. Financial conditions were tight. And the price of gold dropped below $300 an ounce and stayed there for a while.

I remember listening to the financial market report ... and hearing that gold was two hundred-something an ounce. That sounds cheap, I thought.

Fast-forward two decades, and you'll see that the last six months have been unkind to gold.

What's interesting about it is that we've had a boatload of positive gold catalysts : unlimited deficit spending and unlimited monetary easing, not to mention some civil unrest thrown in—yet gold has been the worst-performing commodity.

  • The reason is that lots of people have been attracted to digital gold—Bitcoin.
This is impossible to measure, but it's my belief that Bitcoin has drawn billions of assets away from gold. And in recent weeks, gold and Bitcoin have been negatively correlated. As Bitcoin has gone down, gold has gone up.
Winners & Losers
Bitcoin has proven that it is no store of value, after being so easily manipulated by a temperamental billionaire, in an elaborate pump-and-dump scheme. Nice asset you got there.
You can't do that to gold ... it's simply too big. Even the Reddit jerks who tried to manipulate silver sustained heavy losses. These markets are large and liquid, and it just cannot be done.

Cryptocurrencies are very young. A good analogy is the internet bubble of the late 1990s when there were thousands of (mostly unprofitable) dot-com companies. Fast-forward 20 years, and all of them are gone except for four.

If you had correctly picked those four companies, you were rewarded with unbelievable returns. But if you invested in Webvan's grocery-delivery business, for example, you got a zero.

It's not easy to pick the winners, and that's what we're being asked to do with crypto.

Bitcoin might not be around in five years. Maybe not Ethereum, either. Maybe the winner will be something else. Maybe it will be central bank digital currencies. I put this one in the too hard pile, but I'm pretty sure of one thing. That is…

  • Gold is going to be with us five years from now, and I think the price is going to be a lot higher.
.... Adding gold to a portfolio improves its risk characteristics and dampens volatility.

And no asset class has a greater propensity to disappoint, to sell off at the most inopportune and inconvenient times, and rally when people least expect it.

...I've been dealing with the arbitrary and capricious nature of gold for 16 years, and I've reached the point where I just have a great deal of patience with it. It will go when it goes.

But gold does have a tinfoil hat element to it, though gold investors seem downright sane next to the Bitcoin investors.


The Bitcoin people took [holding] to an extreme, and they're now sitting on a pile of losses. The older I get, the better I feel about taking profits, especially in the trades I like the most.

  • But in gold, there is no reason to take profits until the day that we start running balanced budgets in the United States.
If we get a fiscally conservative president and a hawkish Fed, the jig will be up, and markets will discount that well into the future. So, I am always on the alert if the political winds start blowing in a different direction.

Until then, I will be rolling around with my 30% precious metals position. It does not have a great deal of volatility (at the moment), so it does not cause me a great deal of stress.

And gold appears to be breaking out to retest the old highs of $2,070 or so.

....

from Jarad Dillion. The 10th Man



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 21 2021, 09:01 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ May 20 2021, 06:57 PM

Nipper said
QUOTE
Is the recent lift in Gold for real or will it fade (again)?


Have no idea. I have been bying the dips selling the pops for the past two years.
Happy to just keep doing it.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 


henrietta
post Posted: May 20 2021, 08:37 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 17 2021, 03:14 PM

If the internet goes down ............. ???? The whole world stops !!! blink.gif

Cheers
J



--------------------
"Sometimes I sits and thinks, and sometimes I just sits." Satchel Paige

"No road is long with good company." Traditional
 
nipper
post Posted: May 20 2021, 06:57 PM
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Is the recent lift in Gold for real or will it fade (again)?



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 17 2021, 03:14 PM
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Gold a smidgin below the 2400 handle.
Should mean that the miners can still get good prices for bullion trades.
Most goldies up big time today, silver not far behind.
Inflation on the march,the universe awash if Central Bank largesse. not surprising there is a retreat to hard assets.
One word on digital currencies.
What happens if the internet goes down?
Mick



--------------------
sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Feb 26 2021, 12:24 PM
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All of my goldies opened at low prices almost down to the early March covid dips.
I had a number of lowball bids in, but only one of them, for RMS, was filled.
Since this mornings open, there has been a massive turn around.
Gold and silver prices barely moved in that time, yet there have been intraday swings of 5 and 15 %.
Not sure what is going on apart from the usual manipulation, will have to wait and see what happens in US markets tonite.
Micik





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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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