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Australian Housing Crash, Has the bubble burst?
Mags
post Posted: Sep 23 2021, 10:50 PM
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In Reply To: Mags's post @ Apr 8 2021, 09:38 PM

QUOTE
Anyways, I believe we are on the home stretch for the global fiat economic system as we recognise it. We are going to continue to see housing scream skywards. Here in Adelaide stuff is regularly selling for multiple millions.... average house price is well >$400k, in a city with a median wage of $40k... it's absolutely mental. MENTAL.
And it's going to get worse.
Once scomo finally gets the removal of responsible lending through, it's gonna be a debt fuelled orgy like no one alive has seen. We learn nothing of history.
I honestly feel bad for those who don't have a good foothold in the RE market ie. 40%+ equity. But like I say, it's just gonna keep going up.
The housing market has nothing to do with fundamentals any more. The only thing that matters is credit. credit credit credit.


Well, yep. Got it right. We bought in 2019. Place down the road from us, far less desirable position (we in circuit, no passing traffic) on a busy corner, 500m2 less than us, missing a shed compared to us, with 3 vs our 2 bathrooms... sold for 65% more than we paid.... not even 20 months later...
Credit, credit, credit...
BS talk of taper, which is impossible. Inflation jumping out of it's cage. 50 years of off-shoring manufacturing has lead to deflation across the entire economy, now that the supply chains are shot to smithereens, while governments pump their economies full of fresh cash, guarantees inflation is here, and probably gonna get ugly: real ugly.
I stand by my call, that the USD$$$ is done by 2030. Toast. MIA. Useless. And by that I mean the fiat dollar. China wont take on global reserve status: Why would they? The reserve loses it's manufacturing, and must turn into a war machine to grease the gears of GDP and credit growth.
I don't know, and can't see, what it's gonna take to get the sheeple to wake up to the scam that fiat is: Over the last 20 years we've totally destroyed the Aussie dream of home ownership. Ordinary families with debts that simply can never be paid of. And we're not talking a fringe of society, we are talking a huge chunk. It's destroyed retail, as the banks hoover up all disposable income (I still hate that people believe that term means money left over after cost of living... NOPE: it's all the money left after your boss takes tax out!!!!).
But I've stopped screaming that the aussie housing bubble isn't sustainable: It's gonna take a currency collapse to finish this baby off.
And that's far closer than most imagine. By 2030, it's done. We've had plenty of time to prepare: did you?



Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 12 2021, 09:42 AM
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In Reply To: tombeet's post @ Apr 10 2021, 03:02 PM

here is my argument tombeet

this is what RBA siad
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Looser lending standards could lead to “overexuberance” in Australia’s property market and trigger debt to rise, the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned on Friday.
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if RBA want higher housing price then stop BS to our face and blame commercial bank .
this is my point , you want something, that is ok but just straight to the facts, stop BS and think us as stupid!! weirdsmiley.gif



 
tombeet
post Posted: Apr 10 2021, 03:02 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 9 2021, 04:15 PM

RBA unable to raise rates until the promised 3 years time frame got to keep the economy and housing market hot..........only way out of coved resession?

Tom.


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nipper
post Posted: Apr 9 2021, 08:10 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 9 2021, 07:07 PM

I think housing is ridiculous, the disparity just gets wider. A telling reflection of winners versus losers is the Bank of Mum & Dad up there in the top 10 lenders.

But the interrelationships are more complex. ..get out of synch with global currencies and the economy would be crueled. And let's not start on planning or site availability issues.

But that said, the realities keep making the forecasters look hopeless.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Apr 9 2021, 07:07 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Apr 9 2021, 04:39 PM

lmaosmiley.gif

nipper , if RBA raises rate 2%, i reckon the current property market would be down over 30% within a month. i reckon!
want bet with me!!??? lmaosmiley.gif i'm a such gambler... i know it is impossible for RBA to do that.

but i disagree with you on this point, i think rate hike can fix the problem, don't need up much, little bit from current level will be enough !! imho

hi peoples come in to discuss with us, either against or for it [ rate rise], love to hear you guys voice on this thingy!! tongue.gif






 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 9 2021, 04:39 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 9 2021, 04:15 PM

If it was that simple, eb, they probably would



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


early birds
post Posted: Apr 9 2021, 04:15 PM
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https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/rba-warni...-050059377.html

Looser lending standards could lead to “overexuberance” in Australia’s property market and trigger debt to rise, the Reserve Bank of Australia has warned on Friday.

=====================

lmaosmiley.gif ...... man!! c'mon RBA , just simply lift rate, stop talking with your backside hole. problem will be fixed for sure...... 100% sure!! lmaosmiley.gif

everyone just BS to your face these days!! weirdsmiley.gif



 
Mags
post Posted: Apr 8 2021, 09:38 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Apr 8 2021, 08:47 AM

We're way past a controlled 'levelling'. Even those falls through 2017/18 or was it 18/19, I can't remember, any way they were the steepest on record: and there was no real reason for that: Idiots say it was the banking royal commision, but the falls started before that was EVEN announced...
Anyways, I believe we are on the home stretch for the global fiat economic system as we recognise it. We are going to continue to see housing scream skywards. Here in Adelaide stuff is regularly selling for multiple millions.... average house price is well >$400k, in a city with a median wage of $40k... it's absolutely mental. MENTAL.
And it's going to get worse.
Once scomo finally gets the removal of responsible lending through, it's gonna be a debt fuelled orgy like no one alive has seen. We learn nothing of history.
I honestly feel bad for those who don't have a good foothold in the RE market ie. 40%+ equity. But like I say, it's just gonna keep going up.
The housing market has nothing to do with fundamentals any more. The only thing that matters is credit. credit credit credit.
And the world is awash with the junk, and it gets worse every day. There's not one sustainable central bank on the face of the planet.
I just refuse to get caught up in the games of keeping up with the Jones'. They're all fake, up to their necks in debt. Go speak to a corner shop, privately owned accountant. Ask them about the financial position of their clients... You will feel sick.
Anyways: As Australia's most bearish housing dude, I waved my white flag probably in early 2019... Only thing that matters is credit. Fake money, that never existed, entered into a ledger, against an asset the bank now owns. Credit.. credit... imaginary, but real.
By 2030, I believe all these financial games will have stopped: The central banks will be gone, the financial markets will be in chaos, and those who were wise enough to avoid the debt trap will eek through. Those who believed the last 50 years would be like the next 50, are going to be financially slaughtered.Lovely isn't it.



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early birds
post Posted: Apr 8 2021, 08:47 AM
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/las...317-p57bfc.html

“If you don’t get wages growth, then people will be stuck with these mortgages for much longer and that’s going to have an impact. If people are stuck with low wages then they can’t pay off these mortgages,” he says. “A 25 or 50 basis point increase in interest rates will be really felt, especially by first-home buyers. It’s going to have a big impact on debt repayment.”

==============

to be honest, can't just blame RBA , you have waistful jobkeeper, all major central banks drop rate like end of day is coming, and people all wash with "free" cash.
just not sure how this will end???????????????? from the economic101----- it will end with disaster [ like JAPS, lost three decade] or something even worse. cool.gif

but we in the new era, might end with good out come, who knows!!! weirdsmiley.gif



 
plastic
post Posted: Nov 17 2020, 07:31 PM
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Don't know about Au. but years ago OECD put out a report saying NZ was cutting its nose off to spite itself by being a low tax nation. They then held up the teal estate industry as the lowest taxed sector relative to value in the world.

No prizes for guessing their recommendations were to increase taxes.

When that happens, watch out for the banks. Its just like the Japanese bubble economy of the eighties.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
 


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