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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Sep 23 2021, 03:29 PM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20210922-p58tzk

Why $US100 is the key price for iron ore’s fortunes


=============

What do you consider to be your best or worst investment in the sharemarket in your life?

The worst was back in 1999 when I invested in a speculative technology stock called Davnet. It doubled in price and I sold the position to buy a car. The share price subsequently rose a further 5x in the months after I sold, before collapsing back over the next 18 months. This provided me with lots of lessons regarding the momentum of share prices, market sentiment and reversal.

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lmaosmiley.gif ..... i traded that DVT [Davnet] many times back then!! what a crazy time that was!! i'm a rookie back then. lmaosmiley.gif
time is flying and market still the same .

 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 23 2021, 08:44 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 23 2021, 06:31 AM

about evergrande

===================
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/heres-why-t...man-moment.html


Let’s face it, this is not Lehman’s, this is not LTCM,” Carnell said, referring to American hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, which failed in the 1990s. and spurred a panic. “It’s not a hedge fund with massive leveraged positions or a bank whose financial asset prices are hurtling towards zero. It’s a property development firm with quite a lot of debt, you know, 300 billion plus thereabouts in dollar terms.”


At a press conference last week, a National Bureau of Statistics spokesman said the department is monitoring the difficulties of some large real estate companies and the potential impact on the economy.

China’s real estate market and related industries such as construction account for more than a quarter of national GDP, according to Moody’s estimates.


=================

i stick yo my view-----worst case ---share holder will be wipe out, but won't have big affect on chinese financial system. IMHO though.

seems market future think the same as price level rebound big time for the major markets around world.
the US debt ceiling is more of major event i reckon!!




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nipper
post Posted: Sep 23 2021, 06:31 AM
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Another storm , this one Evergrande, averted. Australian share are poised to rise amid gains in US stocks as investors took in stride the latest statement from Federal Reserve policymakers which met expectations that the US central bank will soon begin to taper asset buys.

ASX futures up 13 to 7289

AUD +0.2% to 72.43 US cents
Bitcoin on bitstamp.net +3.4% to $US43,422.52
On Wall St: Dow +1% ; S&P 500 +1% ; Nasdaq +1%
In New York: BHP +0.8% ; Rio +1.9% ; Atlassian +0.1%
In Europe: Stoxx 50 +1.3% ; FTSE +1.5% ; CAC +1.3% ; DAX +1%
Spot gold -0.4% to $US1768.05/oz
Brent crude +2.1% to $US75.90 a barrel
US oil +2% to $US71.93 a barrel
Iron ore +17% to $US108.70 a tonne
2 year yield: US 0.24% Australia 0.00%
5 year yield: US 0.85% ; Australia 0.62%
10 year yield: US 1.30% ; Australia 1.25% ; Germany -0.33



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Sep 21 2021, 04:09 PM
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China conundrum in AusNet bidding duel
Chanticleer

As the supplier of electricity to 1.1 billion people in 26 Chinese provinces, State Grid Corporation of China understands the benefits that come from economies of scale.

But when it comes to takeover offers in Australia – in times of heightened geopolitical tension – this rational approach to business can be abandoned in the interests of preserving the status quo.

The bidding duel for AusNet Services, which pits Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management against local pipeline operator APA Group, presents State Grid and the board of AusNet with a conundrum that is not easily solved.

In fact, it’s possible the solution to this problem might well suit State Grid while being against the interest of other AusNet shareholders.

As a 20 per cent shareholder in AusNet, State Grid was happy to be a passive investor collecting its distributions and having a seat at the AusNet board table with access to valuable intelligence about the evolution of Australia’s electricity network.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20210921-p58tdd

==========

make sense that APA comes in, hope APA can get it!! tongue.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 21 2021, 10:35 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 17 2021, 06:44 AM

looks buyer or bargain hunter move in for our market, 7100 seems a real strong support!! tongue.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 17 2021, 06:44 AM
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Iron ore still on its way down.


ASX futures down 14 points or 0.2 per cent to 7428

AUD -0.5% to 72.96 US cents
Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -1.6% to $US47,408.99
On Wall St: Dow -0.2% ; S&P 500 -0.2% ; Nasdaq +0.1%
In New York: BHP -3.7% ; Rio -4.7% ; Atlassian +2.4%
In Europe: Stoxx 50 +0.6% ; FTSE +0.2% ; CAC +0.6% ; DAX +0.2%
Spot gold -2.2% to $US1755.56/oz
Brent crude +0.4% to $US75.76 a barrel
US oil +0.2% to $US72.76 a barrel
Iron ore -8.1% to $US107.21 a tonne
2 year yield: US 0.22% ; Australia 0.00%
5 year yield: US 0.84% ; Australia 0.61%
10 year yield: US 1.34% ; Australia 1.26% ; Germany -0.30%



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Sep 12 2021, 11:34 AM
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U.S. Market


The U.S. market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled back for three straight sessions, with each staging a downside reversal to close the week. The S&P 500 is now sitting just above its 50-DMA (4,424), a level that has acted as consistent, but now obvious support over the entirety of the year. The Nasdaq is now trading just above its 21-DMA (15,081), with the next level of support at 14,896, which may coincide with a rising 50-DMA (14,826). The distribution day count stands at two and three, respectively, with no expiration next week.



Overall breadth narrowed with all sectors closing down this week led lower by six sectors that declined 2% or more, including Transportation, Health Care, and Technology. Consumer Cyclical and Retail led, with declines of less than 1%. Transportation and Energy are now trading 2-3% below their respective 50-DMA. The best performing industry groups over the past week included Coal, Oil & Gas E&P, Lodging, Leisure Svcs, Home Furnishings, Ships, and Super Regional Banks. The worst performing groups included Jewelry, Cannabis, Generic Drugs, Miners, Super Markets, Plastics, and Rails. 49% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA and 72% are trading above their respective 200-DMA, compared with 66% and 79%, respectively, last week. 62% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are trading above their respective 50-DMA, compared with 79% last week.

We recommend a patient approach to increasing risk given Friday’s action. Look for indices to hold and rally from near-term levels of support first before adding risk. Thus far, the majority of leading ideas remain above individual levels of logical support, though many did pull back sharply to close the week and may begin forming new bases.

Developed Markets


Twenty-two developed markets lost 0.6% on average during the week. Twelve markets are in a Confirmed Uptrend, eight markets are in an Uptrend Under Pressure, and two markets are in a Rally Attempt.



The iShares Developed Market Index (EFA) lost 1.1% this week, closing lower in the last three days of trading. It pulled back from all-time highs, and after being moved a Confirmed Uptrend from a Rally Attempt in the prior week. The index continues to trade near all-time highs and added two distribution days this week.
Key Developed Markets



EMEA



The Stoxx 600 closed 1.1% lower this week, falling for a second week from all-time highs. It is approaching 50-DMA support. This week, Norway was upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend, while Germany, Belgium, and Switzerland were downgraded to an Uptrend Under Pressure. Of the 17 indices we cover, seven are in an Uptrend Under Pressure and the remaining are in a Confirmed Uptrend.



This week, the 16 European markets traded mostly negative and lost 1.0% on average. The only gainers were Israel (+1.8%) and the Netherlands (+0.4%). Top losers included Portugal (-3.2%), Belgium (-2.5%), Switzerland (-1.8%), Denmark (-1.7%), and Spain (-1.7%).

Emerging Markets


Twenty-four emerging markets lost 0.4% on average during the week. Nineteen markets are in a Confirmed Uptrend, including three in an Uptrend Under Pressure. Three markets are in a Rally Attempt, while two are in a Downtrend.



The iShares Emerging Market Index (EEM) lost 1.2% this week, reversing after two weeks of strong gains as it ran into resistance near the 40-DMA. It is 10% off highs and in a Rally Attempt.

Key Emerging Markets



APAC



This week, APAC markets traded in a mix and gained 0.1% on average. Top gainers were China (+3.6%), the Philippines (+1.1%), Pakistan (+0.50%), and India (+0.30%). Top losers were South Korea (-2.40%), Thailand (-0.90%), Malaysia (-0.80%), Indonesia (-0.50%), and Taiwan (-0.20%).
=====================

from WILLIAM O’NEIL+CO!!! DYOR as always!!


 
early birds
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 08:42 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 9 2021, 07:42 AM

Every day seems to bring a new record as equities race to the heavens while the economic picture on the ground looks significantly less cheery. Since late last year when the Dow recovered its pandemic crash losses, records have been broken like clockwork. But every once in awhile, the sound of growling bears echoes through the woods, a sign that some on Wall Street are betting the party is about to end. This is one of those times.


flashed yellow lights??? unsure.gif




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nipper
post Posted: Sep 9 2021, 07:42 AM
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ASX futures down 35 points or 0.5 per cent to 7478 near 7am AEST
  • AUD -0.2% to 73.68 US cents
  • Bitcoin on bitstamp.net -0.2% to $US46,247.93
  • On Wall St: Dow -0.2% ; S&P 500 -0.1% ; Nasdaq -0.6%
  • In New York: BHP -1.5% ; Rio -1.4% ; Atlassian +0.02%
  • In Europe: Stoxx 50 -1.1% ; FTSE -0.8% ; CAC -0.9% ; DAX -1.5%
  • Spot gold ; down 0.1% to $US1792.63/oz
  • Brent crude +1.3% to $US72.61 a barrel
  • US oil +1.3% to $US69.21 a barrel
  • Iron ore ; down 4.2% to $US132.19 a tonne
  • 2 year yield: US 0.22% ; Australia 0.00%
  • 5 year yield: US 0.81% ; Australia 0.68%
  • 10year yield: US 1.34% ; Australia 1.29% ; Germany -0.33%




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Sep 8 2021, 02:51 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Aug 31 2021, 09:44 AM

Warren Buffett's favourite market indicator has surged to a record high of 142 per cent, signalling US and international shares are heavily overpriced and could plummet in the months ahead.

The global version of the Buffett indicator takes the combined market capitalisation of the world's publicly traded shares and divides it by global gross domestic product. A reading above 100 per cent indicates the global stock market is overvalued relative to the world economy.
QUOTE
BOOM! Global stocks have gained another $US1.6 trillion [$2 trillion] in market capitalisation this week, an analyst tweeted on Sunday. Equities now worth $US120.3 trillion, highest in history. Global stock market cap now equal to 142 per cent of world GDP, an alltime high as well, he added.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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