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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
traveler
post Posted: Jul 29 2007, 12:25 AM
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Some of you who have been following tanning news for awhile will remember Cutanix, the US company that had the rights to Dr. Brian Fuller's tanning technology for awhile before he left the company.

Cutanix said they would come out with a tanning product (a real tan) around 2004. They later had some legal squabble with Dr. Fuller (MelanX) and Cutanix just sold a roceasa product.

Well, the Cutanix company bit the dust. They no longer exist.

There was big talk around 2001 on how Cutanix was going to beat Epitan to the market with their tanning lotion.

I guess we're lucky Epitan/ Clinuvel is still around.

Babs Gilchrest promised a tanning product (based on pTpT), Brian Fuller promised a tanning product (MelanX), and others have as well, but Clinuvel is the only one to get this close.

And to think it's trading at .75.

I don't know about anyone else, but I had to buy more at this level. It's like buying a good suit for 1/2 the suggested retail price.

 
Benjammin
post Posted: Jul 27 2007, 10:37 AM
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Based on my life experiences, I am almost certain of one thing... If I sold all my stock today, this stock would rise significantly, for one reason or another, within a month. ohmy.gif



 
tanman
post Posted: Jul 27 2007, 09:27 AM
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In reply to: traveler on Thursday 26/07/07 11:24pm

"Same thing is going on with SPL. Despite very promising news, the stock is way undervalued, and those who had faith in the technology for years have not been rewarded. I was an early bird over there as well, and the fickle players will jump on that in the home stretch of the project and still see large gains."

I am an owner of SPL, also. You are right, their stock is in a holding pattern with no end in sight for at least a year or two. weirdsmiley.gif

But, SPL is a little different than CUV in that they are receiving tens of millions periodically from the NIH to fund their trials. Free funding, fast track status and no share dilution. Their market cap is only $53 million with a whopper drug (Vivagel) that has a potential market at least as large as CUV1647 and a host of other fundamental nano-biotech patents and drug pipelines to keep SPL attractive for a while.

As far as CUV goes, I am looking forward to a little SP run up and a healthy buy out. I'll be satisfied with a final sell price of 5x current levels.


Tanman


 
traveler
post Posted: Jul 27 2007, 06:05 AM
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QUOTE (KRD @ Thursday 26/07/07 02:40pm)

One thing I definitely do agree with you on is that it does appear "the increase in share price will be compressed within a shorter window as we approach 2009 completion of trials and registration."

That is very frustrating for anyone who hoped to cash out a small percentage of holdings before the drug completes trials (assuming it does).

One thing I'm interested in knowing is whether there's any chance Clinuvel could start their US trials in Phase III. Last I heard, I think they were to start a Phase II trial (bypassing Phase I), but it's been at least a year since I heard anything on that, and a lot has changed since then.

Seems reasonable to me for the FDA to allow CLinuvel to start the US trials in Phase III for PLE or EPP, but the FDA is anything but reasonable.

 
KRD
post Posted: Jul 27 2007, 05:40 AM
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In reply to: traveler on Thursday 26/07/07 11:24pm

I'm not suggesting CUV will have $1 billion in revenue by January 2010. They may not have any at that point. But, here is where my reasoning comes from:

Should the trials proceed without a hitch and the submittals be made for marketing approval in the 3rd quarter of 2009 (a real possibility particularly with the orphan drug strategy) by January 2010 the market may anticipate sales of $1 billion+ with its release.

There are several factors working to CUV's advantage:

1. A very dry pipeline for the big pharmaceuticals. This is common knowledge and a topic that has received lots of press in recent months. These are public companies with constant pressure to improve earnings and feed the machine. They are clearly looking for new product. If they can market a drug for "restless leg syndrome" they'd go hog wild with a drug that tans.

2. So far, at least, a new drug that does not appear to have any major side effects

3. Pent up demand from recreational tanners many of whom are becoming concerned about skin cancer risks from tanning salons.

Let's assume the analysts believe this drug can ramp up to annual sales of $1+billion in its first few years and CUV works out a royalty agreement of 18%. CUV's anticipated gross revenue would be $180 million plus. You may recall one of the analysts earlier reports a year or two back that projected net revenue to be 65% of gross revenue since R&D expenses would be minimal at that point and the company could just sit back and collect checks.

With that assumption earnings would be $117million/300 million shares or $0.39/share. Use a P/E of 21 and the share price could be $8.19.

If CUV sold the company in January of 2010 at a 2.5 multiple with the same earnings expectations the value could be $8.33/share.

Obviously, these are very back of the envelope numbers and by no means am I'm saying this is going to happen for sure. It's an interesting discussion topic and there are lots of opinions of where CUV is headed. I for one believe that sales will exceed expectations once this hits the market. It's very frustrating how long this whole process has drawn out but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic if you are a patient investor.

 
traveler
post Posted: Jul 27 2007, 12:40 AM
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QUOTE (traveler @ Thursday 26/07/07 08:24am)

Just to follow up, the company still won't have revenues in January 2010. Big money, especially big institutional money - mutual funds, pension funds, etc., will not touch this company without it having any revenues. And for this to increase 10 fold over 2.5 years, there would have to be huge players involved with this.

I think it's a very real possibility that we will not see any revenues until 2011. Even under Wolgen, the timelines have been pushed back. A year ago at this time, he was saying the trials would be completed BY 2009.

Now they hope to finish them IN 2009. But, they still haven't even gotten approval to start Phase III in several Euro countries yet.

And even if they finish in 2009, it will take another year for regulator review and approval, and then even after it's approved, it will take several months to get the production/ distribution/ dermatology sales chain rolled out and into the market.

Not trying to be a spoil sport, just calling it as I see it.

I'm happy the drug is doing well in the trials so far, but I think we can all agree that this stock has been a huge disappointment so far. Four years ago at this time, it was at about .90. Four years later, we're at .78.

None of us would have predicted that I don't think. Historically, reality has never come close to matching enthusiasts' share price predictions with this stock.



 

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traveler
post Posted: Jul 26 2007, 11:24 PM
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QUOTE (KRD @ Wednesday 25/07/07 07:47pm)

$8/ share by Jan. 2010?

Did you by any chance write that old Intersuisse analyst report? He predicted $8.63 in about a 4 year time frame from whent the report was written. If you contact Intersuisse to ask him to follow up on his comments, he'll run and hide on you. That analyst was a joke.

I'll go on record as saying this stock will never hit anywhere near $8.

It's been diluted to the hilt.

Sadly, those of us who bought in several years ago have not been rewarded for our faith in the project. What's going to happen now is people will be able to jump in right before it's almost a sure thing and still see significant gains and in a much shorter investment timeframe.

They'll end up playing this right and they're the fickle crowd. I've made about 6 figures on this stock, but I would have done much better the past several years if I hadn't gotten in so early and would have put more money on other stocks that I targeted as well.

That's the way it goes, I guess. Great technology. Dog of a stock.

Same thing is going on with SPL. Despite very promising news, the stock is way undervalued, and those who had faith in the technology for years have not been rewarded. I was an early bird over there as well, and the fickle players will jump on that in the home stretch of the project and still see large gains.

It usually doesn't pay to get in biotechs in the very early days of the venture - even if they end up bucking the odds. Lesson learned.

Unfortunately with stock such as this, it pays to be more fickle and just pile on later in the project. It will be the last time I burn years sitting with so much cash on a bio like this.

 
atsasx
post Posted: Jul 26 2007, 10:06 PM
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In reply to: KRD on Thursday 26/07/07 11:47am

biggrin.gif Now that's a post!

 
Mel N O'Tan
post Posted: Jul 26 2007, 05:45 PM
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I don't think we are going to see any significant price movements prior to the release of trial information and that is still a long way away unfortunately. The only other thing which will help the price along is the confirmation of patents which has been a long time coming. I think the only thing to do for the next 6-12 months is sit back and accumulate. When the price does go up, I think it will move up pretty quick - but as I said, I think that will be a while till we see that happen so wont be quitting my day job just yet.

 
KRD
post Posted: Jul 26 2007, 10:47 AM
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In reply to: endymion96 on Thursday 26/07/07 12:00am

You certainly may be right. God knows all the false starts we've seen before. However, should the final trial results confirm that the drug is effective and has little side effects investors will know marketing approval is right around the corner. At that point we may see additional analysts jump in with various opinions of projected sales revenue which to date have been quite conservative and clearly omit the scope of the recreational tanning market.

I believe some time ago I posted my opinion that the stock price should fall in the $6 - $10 price range for every $1 billion of revenue based on a royalty somewhere in the mid to upper teens. Lot of "ifs" here but if this holds true we might expect to see a runup from its current $0.80 level to say $8.00 by January 2010. That averages out to a $0.24 a month gain starting today. Each additional month of little activity would translate to a higher per month average rise to hit the $8.00 mark in January 2010. Should the trial results prove to be overwhelmingly good the $8.00 could rise significantly. Should CUV sell out to a big Pharma the same could hold true if the sales price fell in a 2 to 4 times multiple of projected revenue (although I believe other biotechs have sold at higher multiples).

A lot of assumptions on my part but it does help to relieve the boredom as we sit and watch the (CUV) paint dry.

 
 


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