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joules mm1
Posted on: Today, 04:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167


this entry refers directly to Australia

very useful, instructional, educational, give yourself a clue kinda video
it's a straightforward video, easy to digest

you should watch it to see it you can pull it apart with common sense
of course, common sense is the very thing that causes the challenges we have, common sense was once referred-to as "lazy thinking"which is nowadays confused with normal thinking

https://youtu.be/t0x46-enxsA
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

almost ground me out my short, stop 2301 level as it's really the final level above which it's obvious the trend remains fully intact

meanwhile i stumbled across interesting read

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-magic-...et-in-2020.html

excerpt:

"Why post all those links? Just to demonstrate that I know a little bit about this stuff. As opposed to the army of "analysts" on Twitter,
I didn't just stumble onto the monthly chart last week and now feel compelled to author an opinion.
Additionally, most of this new analysis and opinion misses the most important point:
The situation in palladium is unique, and it holds the possibility of exposing...and even threatening...the entire LBMA/COMEX fractional reserve and digital derivative pricing scheme.
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ene...60b1_story.html

#trade persepctive, odds are balanced for a larger rotation in palladiumonline chatter and hype surrounding the demand for palladium is fairly easy to find compared to several weeks and months ago
typically at a major swing high metals attract the most attention as "investors" decide to finally give in an join the ride
#repeatable

#patterns
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 19 2020, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

hat tip Kid Hustler for the find

https://www.longtermtrends.net/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

Stocks vs. Gold and Silver
1896 > 2020
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

observation, eb: something diff, $BTC looks like it's on a break out move

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

thanks for the prompt, alonso smile.gif
2019 capped world’s hottest decade in recorded history
It also marked the second-warmest year ever. “What happens in the future is really up to us," one scientist said.

By Brady Dennis ,
Andrew Freedman and
John Muyskens
January 15
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Source: NASA’s Goddard's Global Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...ld/?arc404=true


========================
<li class="css-i49r68">here's one from Feb. 26, 2019<li class="css-60hakz">
LONDON — Two days of unseasonable sunshine in Britain this week have resulted in more than the shedding of hats, scarves and winter coats: They have also brought the highest temperatures ever recorded in the country in winter.

Temperatures peaked on Tuesday at 21.2 degrees Celsius (70.16 Fahrenheit) in Kew Gardens, London, the hottest February day in Britain since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office, the national meteorological service.

Warmer than an average summer day in Britain, the record set on Tuesday ended a short-lived run for Porthmadog, Wales, which had laid claim earlier in the day with a high of 20.8 degrees Celsius (69.44 Fahrenheit).

February’s new maximum temperature record was also snatched from the rural community of Trawsgoed, Wales, which had set a record on Monday with a high of 20.6 degrees Celsius (69.08 Fahrenheit).

The run of unusually hot days smashed the previous record of 19.7 degrees Celsius (67.46 Fahrenheit), set in the Greenwich area of London in February 1998.

“To get more than 20 degrees Celsius in May would be a very pleasant day. So to get that in February is obviously very significant,” said Grahame Madge, a spokesman for the Met Office. “Whether we will see that again next winter remains to be seen.”

The weather could not have been more different from a year ago, when Britons found themselves up against a polar vortex nicknamed the “Beast From the East.” On one of the coldest days in the U.K. for three decades, snow and high winds closed schools, stranded drivers and disrupted flights and trains.

The subzero temperatures extended far beyond Britain last winter. Norway recorded temperatures of minus 43 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 42 Celsius) at the start of March, and snow fell in Rome for the first time in six years.

The unseasonably balmy temperatures that sent Britons scrambling for sunglasses and T-shirts this week also broke records in Ireland, where the national meteorological service declared the February temperatures to be the hottest since 1960.

On the Continent, the Netherlands beat its oldest record for the warmest February day with a temperature of 17.8 degrees Celsius (64.04 Fahrenheit).

In France, temperatures were as high as 22 degrees Celsius (71 Fahrenheit), far above the average temperature for the time of year, and a number of towns in Sweden also experienced their hottest ever February days.

But as moods lifted with the unexpected taste of summer, some voiced a creeping sense of concern at such a dramatic shift from the norm.

The record temperature in Britain is “concerning, given what we known about climate science,” Leo Hickman, the director of a energy and climate fact-checking website, wrote on Twitter.

“This unseasonably warm weather is part of a global trend of record temperatures and unprecedented extremes,” Caroline Lucas, the former leader of Britain’s Green Party, wrote on Twitter. “This is what climate breakdown looks like.”

The Met Office tied the warm conditions to a vast high-pressure area centered over Germany. Warm air is being drawn up to Britain, prompting the record-breaking heat. Mr. Madge, the Met Office spokesman, said the same weather system was also the cause of last year’s freezing temperatures — but because that high-pressure area was centered over Scandinavia, cold air was drawn from the Arctic.

The meteorologists said they could not definitively link the extreme heat to climate change until a full study had been carried out, but Mr. Madge said: “We would expect temperatures in winter to be influenced by global warming and for temperatures to be warmer on average.”

“Simplistically, it does fit the pattern,” he added.

(no links were provided in the article to check the data)

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/world/eu...est-day-uk.html

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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

some kahuna testing against the wind there, eb ?
uber bully indexes at the mo
China news due at 1pm today AEST
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

holding at resistance overnight aussie time, looks like price may still need to go back down to get enough bids to break thru
not enough impulsive kick
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 17 2020, 01:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

have closed this STO

the bid has held up against resistance

silver is also looking resilient

following the money, above 1558 in the front month contract it's a signal the bulls want to go for a run

there's no right or wrong just bids n offers
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 16 2020, 03:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xauusd on its way to completing a pullback, before another strong upleg, most likely the zone 1520-1504

falling below 1470 in the front month contract would be a trend signal that the upside is completed already
the back ground is uber optimism from retail bulls but commercials are extreme opposite postion....again, buyer beware
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 16 2020, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

" How they arrived at these estimates, we have no idea."
nail on the head
any blog, vlog, post, editorial or chat sheet that offers data is all-but worthless unless it supplies a link-to or assigned-to where the data and/or the originating author(s) work can be verified
numbers, stats and approximations are worthless without the ability to verify wholly because the editorial cannot have the context of the work checked and the context needs to be checked because the editor(ial) does not specialise in the science they are quoting, or offering as evidence, for their own opinion

there are a lot of theists around: pro climate change theists and anti climate change theists ...and we have enough religions !
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 09:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Pendragon, the part in bold may be of interest

" Now, with the country experiencing one of its worst ever bushfire seasons and facing criticism for his pro-coal policies, Morrison is acknowledging climate change is real. He is also talking about “adaptation” and “resilience”.

“I think we want to have a high level of confidence that as a nation we are improving our resilience and our adaptation to respond

to the reality of the environment in which we live,” Morrison told reporters in Canberra on Wednesday.

Australia’s Science Minister Karen Andrews told the Sydney Morning Herald in an interview that climate denial was a waste of time, as she echoed Morrison’s “adaptation” mantra.

As bushfires tore through New South Wales state in December, Morrison avoided drawing a link between the unusually

early and ferocious fire season and climate change, saying the time was not right for such discussions. Just last week he said Sydney

radio 2GB it was disappointing that people were conflating the bushfire crisis with Australia’s emission reduction targets.

While the softening of his stance is significant, scepticism remains over whether it will translate to a stronger climate policy as large swathes of the country continue to burn.

“It’s much overdue for the government to seriously engage on climate change adaptation,” said Frank Jotzo, a professor at the Australian National University’s Crawford School of Public Policy.

“But what also needs to happen is for the Australian government to take a proactive stance on climate mitigation, that is, to reduce green house emissions. And there is still no clear signs that’s about to happen.”

Blazes burning since September have claimed the lives of 28 people, killed more than a billion animals and ripped through forests and farmland the size of Bulgaria.

The hazy skies in Australia’s major cities have become a common occurrence, denting the country’s clean and green image, hurting tourism and consumer sentiment.

KING COAL
The mood in the country is also changing.

A poll from the Australia Institute on Wednesday showed the country’s bushfire crisis has intensified concerns about climate change with almost seven in 10 Australians wanting the government to lead on climate action.

Morrison, whose popularity has sunk to its lowest levels since he took over leadership in 2018 over the government’s bushfire response, continues to espouse the merits of coal.

“Our resources industry is incredibly important to Australia,” he reiterated on Wednesday, adding coal “is worth A$70 billion ($48.3 billion) to Australia and it is important to communities across the country.”

Mining jobs account for just under 2% of all employment in the country, miniscule in comparison with construction, retail, healthcare and tourism-related sectors.

Morrison repeated his government will “meet and beat” a 26% global emissions reduction target agreed in Paris, “without putting taxes on people, putting up electricity prices and pulling out the rugs from regional communities who depend on the sector for their livelihoods.”

Academics and climate scientists say 26% is a lowball reductions target especially if as planned Australia uses its old carbon credits from the 1992 Kyoto Protocol - another sore point for activists.

Australia’s reliance on coal-fired power makes it one of the world’s largest carbon emitters per capita and last year it approved a huge new coal mine by India’s Adani Enterprises.

U.S. climatologist and geophysicist Michael Mann told Reuters that Morrison’s position was “ridiculous”.

“If we continue to warm the planet, then we will in all likelihood exceed our adaptive capacity,” he said in an email.

“In other words, there is no amount of adaptation that will allow Australians to contend with the impacts of climate change if we allow for a further escalation of the problem.”

In fact, Mann said, Australia could become so hot and dry that its residents could join the ranks of the world’s “climate refugees.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australi..._source=twitter
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

this is not climate, but, if the link between them is ever made this graphic (see link) will be high in the department of "something needs to be done"
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1217296456819736576
The smoke from Australia's bushfires has circumnavigated the globe
Australian news 52 minutes ago
Smoke from bushfires burning across southeastern Australia has travelled around the earth and back to Australian skies, NASA said on Wednesday (AEDT). Scientists using data from the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite traced the movement of the smoke, which has also triggered an unusually large number of fire-induced thunderstorms.


excerpt from graphic
you can see smoke above New Zealand as it journey's full circle to Australia
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 02:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

am currently long the $xjo

the RSI is useful when applied in two different ways
preamble is; the 14day setting is of itself arbitrary, so you need to observe what works best depending on the time frame you are trading
so that leads to specific context, that is, the setting you use versus the time frame youre in versus the phase of the trend/congestion zone
there is a lot to go thru, so this is a brief looking into my thoughts, it's diff for each player
keep in mind RSI does not inform you of the health of a trend it can only give you a frame work of conception in advance but you need to do two things
in my humble opinion: know the context and the relative size at playthis also requires some experience or at least some time in observation of the "personality" or "propensity" of the action of the RSI relative to the phase youre trading .....keeping in mind youre trading the right hand side of the screen, the weight of your observation is going to effect your risk decision
but not necessarily your ideas of the trend or the larger phase youre in, it is somewhat lateral and cannot be applied as a linear approachkeep in mind the ideas applied TO the RSI are different to the ideas applied FROM the RSI ....this is a trap many fall into as they apply risk on a linear approach to (any) this indicia
also keep in mind that the RSI is "boxed" so it cannot be default give insight into trend
thus, I say, it is like russian dolls in effect in some time frames, keep in mind that these are time-frames within a phase of tradeso, the price precedes and drags alone the RSI, i use 9day setting, too close too many whips, it is far too easy to misinterpret the RSI setting with the context of price (price has it's own context and it is distorted within the RSI) so in this instance price + RSI is its own context but does not relate to the phase directly so
it is easy to see a divergence and incorrectly apply that divergence when the context of price action is not itself correctly understood by the trader

this last sentence is most critical to understand, so, reread it......
maybe a doodle thread is in need here, Mick .....am happy to contribute so long it's not energy into dead air .....maybe we could call it the non-CUV technical doodle thread !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 15 2020, 11:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo making new altime highs
cfd retail is 92% short today
that, is very bullish
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 14 2020, 11:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

todays downswing is prob a solid shake out, i am happy to be STO (short) while the southrn momo remains intact to about 52% of the prior upswing

keep in mind this picture that's painting what the commercials are selling
the question is not are they selling to distribute what they dont want the question is are they selling to short agressively
clearly retail and trend chasing managers are rampantly bidding prices
buyer beware
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 9 2020, 05:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

https://www.vaneck.com.au/funds/GDX/snapshot/
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 9 2020, 10:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo
how can you tell the bull is midstream ?price opens on an impulse and goes flat at the HOD with no swing
tough going for a daytrader trying to force a trade out of that !
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 8 2020, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo

generic cash chart daily basis looking a fairly orthodox bull
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 8 2020, 12:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

the one in the middle, eb
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biggrin.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 8 2020, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Mick
what do you consider the lag time between BDI trend decline and major equity indexes peaking ?
how far does the BDI have to decline to use as an indicator to support a peak in mei's ?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 8 2020, 11:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

STO palladium
BTO $xjo

btd .....
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 7 2020, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

have to trade the trade
is a hippopotamus really a hippopotamus or is it really just an O'ppotamus that's very, very cool (!) ?
context
swings within swings
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 6 2020, 04:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Australia
Zack Labe‏Verified account @ZLabe 11h11 hours ago Just to reiterate, 2019 was the hottest (and driest) year on record for Australia... [Data from @BOM_au: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ ]
air temp

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exceptional rain
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as fire seasons go....
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 6 2020, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

is that ladder in place yet, EB ?
social media is on peak panic mode, the bulk of "technical" posters are in bear mode on tradingview

and the bids keep coming $xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 5 2020, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

+ what the other posters had to say
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 4 2020, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

abc.net.au/news/2019-12-06/how-climate-change-has-impacted-your-life/11766018?pfmredir=sm
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 4 2020, 01:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

bunnings sell a great range of ladders

for climbing walls of worry


tongue.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 3 2020, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

depends on which bull youre talking about .......it's a buy the dip oppo for indexes
and a good get-out spike on gold
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Jan 2 2020, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$hsi long only play at the mo, very strong
locals not wanting to make price discovery?....indexes look zonal


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 31 2019, 11:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

30p wasted !
no bids all selling
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 31 2019, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

longtail day today $xjo
BTD
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 30 2019, 01:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

weather

#Victoria

stunning footage from

Bureau of Meteorology, VictoriaVerified account @BOM_Vic · 4h4 hours ago A fire near Mallacoota began generating its own weather last night, the dots indicate lightning from a pyrocumulonimbus cloud with plume to 14km. More dangerous fire behaviour is expected across #Victoria today. Stay up to date with forecasts and warnings:


https://twitter.com/BOM_Vic/status/1211425755680387078








  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 29 2019, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

different ...and relevant

https://youtu.be/YKZN-hBTBUE
Dara O'Briain On ALTERNATIVE SCIENCE https://youtu.be/0kPINNhHGNw deGrasse Tyson
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 28 2019, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#potholer54

https://youtu.be/-QCBDnJU2sQ
worthwhile watching, how to inspect false claims
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 27 2019, 03:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Environment
December 27, 2019 / 9:11 AM / Updated 7 hours ago
Alaska set to finish 2019 with record warm year
Yereth Rosen
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - Alaska is set to finish 2019 with a record average high temperature after a year of extremes ranging from a sweltering summer and rampant wildfires to vanishing sea ice and winter rains where heavy snows were once the norm.

Wildlife also suffered from the state’s chaotic weather, with mass die-offs of seabirds and marine mammals struggling to cope with ecological upheaval.

The turmoil is part of a rapid warming pattern in which Alaska - at the leading edge of climate change due to its proximity to the Arctic - is heating at twice the rate of the planet as a whole, researchers say.

“Even with the current cold snap, I don’t see any way that 2019 is not the warmest year on record,” Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist with the University of Alaska at Fairbanks’ International Arctic Research Center, said in a tweet on Thursday.

“Will every year be as warm as this? No. But the escalator is going up,” said Rick Thoman, a scientist with the university’s Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy.

Alaska’s warmest year on record was 2016, when annual temperatures averaged 32.5 degrees Fahrenheit, or just over 0 Celsius. That was the first time the benchmark crept above freezing, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

For 2019, the statewide average through November stood at 34.5 degrees, a year-to-date high that tops nearly a century of record-keeping.


THE BIG THAW
The spring melt on major rivers came earlier than ever and the uppermost layer of permafrost across the Seward Peninsula was thawed the entire year.

Summer temperatures soared to 90 or higher in several locales, including Anchorage, in the midst of a severe drought. Wildfires destroyed homes, triggered evacuations and fouled the region’s air quality for weeks.

Unusually high ocean temperatures spawned toxic algae blooms in the Arctic’s Chukchi Sea.

The Arctic coast city of Utqiagvik - the predominantly Alaska Native settlement formerly known as Barrow and the northernmost city in the United States - recorded its most extreme thaw conditions on record. Stretches of the sea coast, once frozen solid by October, had yet to ice over by mid-December.

“It’s December 20, and we’re finally getting some ice on the shore,” said Billy Adams, who posts climate observations to a community network managed by the Arctic Research Center.

Vanishing sea ice causes ocean waters to absorb more heat, creating a kind of thermodynamic feedback loop that triggers a cascade of wide-ranging climatic consequences that extend around the globe, Thoman said.

In the Bering Sea, where fish populations were dislocated and carcasses of seabirds and seals littered shorelines, the effects of warming are notably acute, Thoman said.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alaska-c..._source=twitter





  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 26 2019, 11:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

let's try that post again
if you want to delete my posts at least tell me the reason !
most the of the narration should be clear in this jpeg
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chart courtesy timingcharts.com
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 25 2019, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

the words science and rock solid do not belong in the same sentence, all science carry a caveat of "currently" or "todate"

science is the art of testing an idea, finding data to test that idea, testing data to invalidate the idea, as the idea itself cannot be cemented as the data (of nature in this instance) is always fluid

clearly, mechanical piece-meal efforts to ameliorate what is going on around us is incremental and taxes are inline with an effort to stave off what needs to be done
taxes only benefit the person demanding the tax

the antigen disposition of nothing-to-see-here-move-along, opined without evidence, versus the evidence of global warming doers not stand up to any rigourous test (that i have seen)
in other words, the evidence todate, that global warming is a non-issue does not stand upto rigorous testing or validation, again, that i have seen

nothing has been placed within this thread to show data that clearly defines global warming to be non-existent

there is ample evidence, readily available, from scientists who make it their full attention, that global warming exists and is increasing
there is ample evidence that we are contributing to that warming - that we are soley responsible; i'm not convinced

that i am not convinced we are soley responsible for this warming ("cycle") leads me to say that all the verbal hysteria is great for advertising and manufacturers who can ride the "idealogical" wave
but in reality spraying buildings with red paint and laying naked in the middle of a highway makes the fence-sitters wanna go back their old side of the fence, the hysteria,
from "pro-climatists" whatever that actually means, does not advance anyone

in truth the slow climb in earth warming is merely an excuse for "believers and deniers" to believe or deny with more and more extreme beligerence toward each other
it's that old nugget of any excuse will do, but, oh boy, it's a good one .....no it's not! yes it is ! no it's not! oh, yes it is!


if the bath water gets colder the longer you sit in the bath the water will continue to get colder, you can empty some cooling water out and pour more hot water in, but, eventually, you know
you must get out of the bath

the inverse analogy applies, we're getting hotter, we cannot just get out of the bath

if i can pull the blanket (argument) over my eyes and say global warming doesn't exist,
am i pulling the scientific blanket over my eyes to say it does exist?

what exactly is it i am not seeing?

if i use the scientific blanket to provide data that global warming is increasing and we need to take steps, then, who is it that does not benefit, who is it that is having something taken away from them?





  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 23 2019, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

"..That is significantly higher than the peak earnings multiples achieved before previous crashes — 18.86 of October 1929 and 18.69 in October 1987 — and is only surpassed by the massive spike of the Dotcom bubble."
Colin Twiggs


Attached Image


(if you are not on the email list, commend you receive the letters, free, a decent summary of data and market concepts)
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 22 2019, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

most of you are familiar with the Tall Building Index
when there's a brand new 'tallest building of the world' it marks the end of a bull period
has not been a true correlative marker recently
interestingly in gold, when major governments bought and central banks loaded up,
gold ATM's issued bullion and landlords only accepted bars for rent saw a major top in 2011
recently central banks loaded up even more (excepting Canada, eh) and Japan and China went on a bantering spree of Asian exchange with Asia currenciesand now we have this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia...s-idUSKBN1YP04C
Muslim nations consider gold, barter trade to beat sanctions
Liz Lee

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Iran, Malaysia, Turkey and Qatar are considering trading among themselves in gold and through a barter system as a hedge against any future economic sanctions on them, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Saturday.

...pretty sure uber perma bulls will make hay with thisthe counterintuitive bear in my head says believer beware
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 21 2019, 10:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Walter Murphy‏ @waltergmurphy 9h9 hours ago I'm sure somebody noticed this, but if not: the NYSE all-issue a-d line has been up for 12 straight days. That is the best run since June 2003. You have to go back to early 1991 (before decimalization) for a longer run.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 20 2019, 06:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

How we know
global warming is real



https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/201...climate-change/


" Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath
Calculating global temperatures requires digitizing old records, accounting for changes in measurement techniques over time, and
filling in the gaps between measurements. Today's @washingtonpost
has an amazing interactive feature digging into how we do it: "

about Zeke: Climate Scientist with a focus on instrumental temperature data and model/observation comparisons.
Affiliations: @TheBTI@CarbonBrief@BerkeleyEarth
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 20 2019, 06:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

i'm reading that sentiment a lot lately

mostly it is due to the lack of assignment, where the editorial fails to offer the originating author(s) and/or fails to cite a link where we can go and find the original data

also this sentiment is a pushed preference of approach, tinfoil stuff, to cast doubt on what is a well studied science, but how do you prove a negative?

my thought is that i have to trust the author, in which case i take time to find out if the author is the scientist (and if not) where did that author get that science from and is it peer reviewed

otherwise, as we now have, we get all these reports and attachments of any event to climate science, such as, ancient sea wall discovered off Israel assigned to ancient world fighting climate change
bush fires assigned to climate change without any depth of proof, freezing storms in north America evidence that climate change is false without any proof, no supporting data, no context, no peer review

graphs are essentially picture-book gossip unless they are attached to a data source where that data can be studied, it is often not a case of intentional misrepresentation than it is that the author is unintentionally misrepresents because they are in a rush to make their case, at best misleading, at worse lazy!

rather than making the default position "all things i disagree with are untrustworthy" making the default position "all things need to be fact checked" has a greater advantage
....and a lot of hard work......therein lays the rub
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 19 2019, 03:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

been that kinda week for the Americans

(Reuters) - The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) removed the fictional country of Wakanda from an online list of nations that have free trade agreements with the United States on Thursday.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 18 2019, 12:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

in the (US) overnights palladium has taken out several key levels with only the 1889 to go to complete a major swing high
not necessarily the trend high but it would def bring in larger risk:reward for longside players
same levels apply per prev post

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 18 2019, 01:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

speaks for itself

risk defined (..even when trapped!)

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 18 2019, 01:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

the phone chimed several times

booted out of BTO

opened small STO

price has broken several ratios and basic structural levels with an impulsive leg down

in the cfd the 1899 level is key

price is holding the 1905 1:1 ratio as i type this
(that's the symmetric move of the previous largest swing against the larger uptrend, by holding it confirms the trend remain intact, by breaking it offers a clue to structure)

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 17 2019, 05:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

free to join ASF, free to go into the comp

" entries in the Full CY 2020 Tipping Competition are now open and close at midnight on 31 December. With $1,850 in cash to be won you'd have to be crazy not to enter. Please post your entries in the Tipping Competition for Full CY 2020 thread in the ASX Stock Chat forum. Good luck!"
read the rules, post to one of the forums on your top stock pick .....eezy peezy !!
aussiestockforums.com/threads/tipping-competition-for-full-cy-2020.35079/#post-1048530
smile.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 17 2019, 03:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

pricing for a front month cfd contract is different to a cme forward contract

very impulsive trend remains underway, retail cfd players have been keen to sell yet lack of volatility suggests the trending is accumulation rather than early sellers being trapped

the channel method may give an insight to when the current bull phase ends, i think it more likely price will exceed the orthodox channel roof and trend
rotation is unlikely to give an easy signal so breaking the roof of the larger channel is what i'm looking for to exit the BTO'scurrently that means price exceeding 2060, maybe a blow-off move maybe not, without any distribution period it is difficult to get a measure on where a terminal swing is likely to pivot

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 17 2019, 03:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo
today another bullish day albeit flat after yesterdays stellar move took indicia into overbought (the good overbought)
as Elliotticians like to rave on we're in iii of 3 of III (depending on your own nonmenclature)
so more upside to come and retail cfd's have gone back to 60-70% sell to open positions, picking those elusive (trend) tops
$hsi is also signaling a clean set of buy signals and i'm holding longs on that after the major ABC's fell into a substantial support zone
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 17 2019, 10:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#COTreport #GVZ #volatility

there are two ways to interpret gold thru the lens of volatility
the volatility should rise sharply when have-to-be-in exchanges with get-me-out
the question is can we interpret the context correctly, not always, at least we can know how close we are to a fulcrum of exchangewhich is likely very close now
the current compression favours the bid and volatility as trend support is much lower relative to the oct 2016 low, overall, lower peaks and lower troughs, suggesting the need to own is less than the desire to distributeand while the drive to own has been consistant the need to distribute has not had to have the same urgency because the bids are there to support selling, the golden tenet of sel strength buy weakness has been applying very well
this implies the GVZ is worth the watch to see if/when gold can muster a new run up we should see a very sharp rise to higher highs relative to the Oct 2016 high if the resumption of multi decade run is to continue
along with the (Commercials positioning) COT report the volatility index should shed some light on direction, todate both suggest more downside than up
I think it pays to be nimble here rather than complacent while the volatility is so low, it's counterintuitive to me and surprises are only surprising cause we are lulled into not being ....surprised......
if nothing else, the GVZ is worth the watch to support or dispel and idea, while it's just another "pretty chart" it carries significant data within, while it's also subjective context it still prints intent

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
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"There's only one thing certain in life, Blondini, and that's doubt .. I think.". GoodBye PorkPie
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 16 2019, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

how big exactly is the China market for Aussie exports
"China data surges"


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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 14 2019, 09:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Eric Steig
@ericsteig

I'm getting very tired of answering this question.

No, it's not the sun.


https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-...global-warming/

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The above graph compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun's energy received by the
Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square meter since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly
levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the
year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious.

The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no
net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. It is therefore extremely unlikely that
the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century.
No. The Sun can influence the Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few
decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in the
Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the
last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity.

One of the “smoking guns” that tells us the Sun is not causing global warming comes from looking at the amount of the Sun’s
energy that hits the top of the atmosphere. Since 1978, scientists have been tracking this using sensors on satellites and what
they tell us is that there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching Earth.

A second smoking gun is that if the Sun were responsible for global warming, we would expect to see warming throughout all layers
of the atmosphere, from the surface all the way up to the upper atmosphere (stratosphere). But what we actually see is warming at
the surface and cooling in the stratosphere. This is consistent with the warming being caused by a build-up of heat-trapping gases
near the surface of the Earth, and not by the Sun getting “hotter.”

Q: How do we know recent warming is NOT caused by the Sun?
A: Scientists have been measuring the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching the top of Earth’s atmosphere using sensors on satellites since 1978. Since that time, global temperatures have risen sharply, while there has been no trend in the amount of the Sun’s energy reaching Earth.

https://youtu.be/SuVX8z80Fvg


https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/...rgy-budget.html
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 13 2019, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Zack Labe‏Verified account @ZLabe 24h24 hours ago Cheers to @NASA's incredible Earth observing (satellite) network, which is critical for understanding the weather & climate system. Animation as of December 2019. Graphic by @NASAHyperwall: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4772

(video) https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a0047..._HD_1080p30.mp4


https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4772




This animation shows the orbits of NASA's fleet of Earth observing spacecraft that are considered operational as of December 2019. The clouds used in this version are from a high resolution GEOS model run at 10 minute time steps interpolated down to the per-frame level.

Changes to this version include: removal of Jason-2 and Jason-3 and the camera does not show DSCOVR within its view.




Spacecraft included:
Aqua
Aura
CALIPSO: Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation
CYGNSS-1: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 1
CYGNSS-2: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 2
CYGNSS-3: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 3
CYGNSS-4: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 4
CYNGSS-5: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 5
CYGNSS-6: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 6
CYGNSS-7: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 7
CYGNSS-8: Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System 8
Cloudsat
GPM: Global Precipitation Measurement
GRACE-FO-1: Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On-1
GRACE-FO-2: Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On-2
ICESat-2
ISS: International Space Station
Landsat 7
Landsat 8
OCO-2: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2
SMAP: Soil Moisture Passive Active
SORCE: Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment
Suomi NPP: Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership
Terra
------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.c...p;button=recent
For ten years from 2009 to 2019, the planes of NASA’s Operation IceBridge flew above the Arctic and Antarctic, gathering data on the height, depth, thickness, flow and change of sea ice, glaciers, and ice sheets.

Designed to bridge the gap between NASA’s two Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellites, ICESat and ICESat-2, IceBridge made its final flight in November 2019, one year after ICESat-2’s successful launch. The fleet of aircraft carried more than a dozen instruments, from ice-penetrating radar and elevation-mapping lasers to optical and infrared cameras.

This visualization shows the flight lines of each yearly campaign from 2009 to 2019, created from navigational data obtained from the flights.
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 12 2019, 06:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

nipper !
that's an outstanding find
I watched the video twice, the second time i watched with eyes centered between the year dates on the left and glaciers on the right- pun intended - quite an eye opener
larger screen version https://youtu.be/E4Zc_KuXMkA
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 12 2019, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

along with this Lake Suwa post https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...p;p=904317these
both posts are best viewed on a tablet or large screen as the pictures are "active" and take time to scroll thru
if you've seen The Terror* (highly commended viewing for mine!) then you'll enjoy this read
excerpts:
" Thousands of miles away, and 138 years later, the Jeannette’s logbooks sit in a climate-controlled room in the

U.S. National Archives in Washington, D.C. Every page has been digitized and uploaded to the web,

then transcribed by an eccentric group of citizen-scientists called Old Weather.

For the past decade, its far-flung volunteers have shown that the Jeannette’s logbooks, and others like them,

are more than what Melville called “the records … of our two years of toil and suffering.” They are rich repositories of


data that can help us understand how profoundly the Earth’s climate has changed and what might happen to it in the future. "

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" ....extracted millions of observations about barometric pressure, wind speed, air temperature and ice from the old logbooks.
These are fed into a huge dataset at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
creating what NOAA calls “a dauntingly complex, high-resolution, four-dimensional reconstruction of the
global climate that estimates what the weather was for every day back to 1836.” "
" ...start digitising its 80,000 or so logbooks from U.S. Navy and Coast Guard ships. .."
"...about 20,000 people have contributed to Old Weather over the years..."
" ...pack ice that destroyed those old ships now retreats enough during the summer to allow luxury cruises through Arctic waters.
A New Zealand company called Heritage Expeditions makes regular voyages to Wrangel Island, near where the Jeannette was
first trapped, its desperate crew surviving by eating the polar bears and walruses that today’s tourists come to see.Those tourists are rarely disappointed. Polar bears gather on Wrangel Island in ever-increasing numbers, possibly driven
ashore by the loss of sea ice, say researchers. The “measureless frozen ocean” that Captain De Long described is no more,
and his era’s obsession with conquering the North Pole has been replaced by the graver challenge that drives so many Old
Weather volunteers: ... climate change.
For those volunteers, the logbooks are a reminder not only of how much the world has changed...."
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/specia...e-ice-shiplogs/

( great 'Weather Time Machine' https://graphics.reuters.com/CLIMATE-CHANGE...E2FC/index.html )

* https://putlocker.win/series/the-terror/
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 8 2019, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#process #repeatability #stickability

https://twitter.com/TexasTechMBB/status/1201631062943645698
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 7 2019, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

video https://twitter.com/i/status/1203174797112434688
#ice #melt #anecdotal #glacier

excerpt:
" Lemon Creek Glacier in Juneau, where records go back to the 1940s,
had its second consecutive year of record mass loss, with 3 meters erased from the surface,


U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Louis Sass told Reuters.

Melt went all the way up to the summit, said Sass, one of the experts who travel to


benchmark glaciers to take measurements in the fall."

... Taku is melting, said Mauri Pelto, who heads the North Cascades Glacier Climate Project.


This year, the summer melt reached as high as 1,450 meters, 25 meters above the


previous high-altitude record set just last year, he said. "

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-...e-idUSKBN1YA19N
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 7 2019, 09:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Excerpt:"For nearly 600 years, priests have observed ice cover on the lake here in the Japanese Alps,
diligently recording it by hand. These documents represent one of the world’s oldest continuous measurements of climate change, written long before the priests knew what they were providing. "

#observational #anecdotal #ice #retreat #Japanhttps://www.reuters.com/investigates/specia...nge-japan-lake/

"Shinto priests at Lake Suwa have been observing a mythic ice phenomenon since the 1400s.


Now, the ice is getting ever thinner and the lake is slowly vanishing from the everyday lives of the people who surround it. "

By MARI SAITO in SUWA, JAPAN
Photographs by ISSEI KATO

Filed: December 06, 2019, 12 p.m. GMT

(it's a very long article and some pictures take a few seconds to load.....worth the effort, i say it's an engaging article)
Excerpt:"During the entirety of the 17th century, there was only one year without a sighting of the omiwatari.

Between the end of World War II and 1988, the ice ridge failed to form 13 times.

Since then, the omiwatari has become rarer still. The crossing finally appeared last year after a four-year absence. "
Excerpt:" Annual air temperatures in Suwa have warmed at a rate of 2.4 degrees Celsius over the past century,
double the national figure, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Between 1950 and 2014, Lake Suwa failed to freeze 17 times. In comparison, between 1443 to 1700,


there were only three instances in which the lake didn’t freeze over completely.


And when it comes to the omiwatari, the absences have grown more common: In the 1990s, it once disappeared for six consecutive years."




https://www.reuters.com/investigates/specia...nge-japan-lake/
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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 6 2019, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$hsi
so far very clean structure in bids v offers, impulsive bid with choppy pullbacks.....trendy
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 6 2019, 08:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

looking for flat > up day $xjo up more so spesh if honkers goes green
12.30am aest news whip https://www.forexfactory.com/
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo
promise to stop p!ssing around with this ....
"xjo wedge fights bull symmetry 051219"

note the text in the daily insert:
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 02:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

HTL high to low
BTO buy to open
BTC buy to close
STO sell to open
STC sell to close
LOD low of dayHOD high of day
GMTFO GTFO please sir may i exit
symmetry (a ratio of 1:1 this swing is the same size as last swing in the same direction, tending to be confirmative of/for directional trade)
-------------------------------

$xjo :
one point of note should not be overlooked the Dec 12 sell down is a 1:1 ratio of the downswing we are retracing today - going by my above comment that implies a very bullish idea which tended to be correct most oft than not, a good directional trend signal, hard to fudge trend construct....
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$hsi lack of sell probably a good sign of accumulation/consolidation holding the index in a large buy zone
have started BTO positions on that, uber small
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 12:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

we are below a basic 33% retrace HTL since the end of month sell (which waited for the thanksgiving cue)
and we saw that rollover december 2nd late arvo so all the hallmarks of large rotation are there and not clear that resumption of the uptrend is printing today despite the bid

....xjo is rarely this active mid session, looks like distribution to me, the switch in sentiment from retail cfd's from extremely bearish to mildly bullish fits the tenet that retail cfd players are largely on the wrong side of the gig

ideally we need to see a bid into $xjo cash close and a bullish signal in the SPA into 4.10pm for the longs to resume the upside
for mine, best trade today from a positional trade is : dont care about and have no need for - any trade - unless the signal is screaming an ah-ha signal
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 11:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

like your thinking
alternatively take some off the table when it suits, raise stop to zone around break-even (+/-), let the momentum carry you

when we make new highs i'll have a perfect hindisght call : the end of month window dressing (fees) allowed a fake sell set-up to trap sellers
and flush out weak holders
rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 5 2019, 11:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

had to close out at the open, day looks like it's holding the bid, if we're up overnight and no rollover the longs will be best risk
sentiment is fairly even 55% BTO printing for all clients 59% for top clients front month contract cfd
when it's clean bid and no chop like this i tend to think the previous larger trend up has a lot more legs..follow the money
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 11:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

tight stop huh

reduce size and allow some heat

keep in mind the large % drop from the high so players are wound up looking for the elusive lotto move and late comers get flushed

lack of liquidity locally can whip more than the day sesh
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

overnight players like to run the boundary of the zones so you may get a decent sell level
if there's good news for couple of aus companies listed on the LSE then that'll lift it too
generally i want to sell the lifts rather than raise risk by riding them
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

a lot of players thinking theyre wearing butchers gloves....
all the overlapping chop with on 25% bounce achieved today (exc yesterday), good signal price is directional down
sellside liquidity dominating

closing above 6626 $xjo and get a bid at tomorrows open might change that perspective but right now buying the dip carries greater risk
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 11:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

on a 123 p swing down we've bumped 25% retrace, confirming the downtrend when the bounce is so shallow......the next decent bounce should retrace that % for the whole swing since the sell down of 6894


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 10:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

when price pops, like today 11.19am, you want to see if the length of the pop is the same as the previous swing
a 1:1 ratio is a continuation signal, a fake lift, very easy to pull on late arrival STO's weak shorts
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

i'm holding and adding to sells
min target is 6545
suggest much lower than that, xjo has a very big channel to retrace within the larger bull cycle
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

not even a taxidermist can lend a hand today
swift impulsive sells like this, daily basis, need to be respected when in position

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 4 2019, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

trend is your friend
if that's true, where's the most risk, with the impulsive sell or with the bounce?
look to see how hard and how long it takes for the pause in major direction to resolve, that should give a clear indication of the coming/continuing directional strength
which is down
and here's the double wedge throw over, very rare in any market but big signal when it arrives
see if it makes sense, the structure is there, repeatable pattern

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 3 2019, 11:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$BEAR
local etf +2.4% today
v.
$xjo -2.1%

xjo had a reversal, on an repeatable pattern, a diagonal wedge* with a ....bonus throw-over for the technicians
*also referred to as an ending diagonal wedge
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Dec 2 2019, 12:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

china data
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 27 2019, 11:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Another year, another record

Geneva, 25 November 2019 - Levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached another new record high, according to the World Meteorological Organization. This continuing long-term trend means that future generations will be confronted with increasingly severe impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, more extreme weather, water stress, sea level rise and disruption to marine and land ecosystems.

The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin showed that globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) reached 407.8 parts per million in 2018, up from 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017.

The increase in CO2 from 2017 to 2018 was very close to that observed from 2016 to 2017 and just above the average over the last decade. Global levels of CO2 crossed the symbolic and significant 400 parts per million benchmark in 2015.

CO2 remains in the atmosphere for centuries and in the oceans for even longer.

Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also surged by higher amounts than during the past decade, according to observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch network which includes stations in the remote Arctic, mountain areas and tropical islands.

Since 1990, there has been a 43% increase in total radiative forcing – the warming effect on the climate - by long-lived greenhouse gases. CO2 accounts for about 80% of this, according to figures from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration quoted in the WMO Bulletin.

“There is no sign of a slowdown, let alone a decline, in greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere despite all the commitments under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,» said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “We need to translate the commitments into action and increase the level of ambition for the sake of the future welfare of the mankind,” he said.

“It is worth recalling that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago. Back then, the temperature was 2-3°C warmer, sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now,” said Mr Taalas.
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Emissions Gap

The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Emissions represent what goes into the atmosphere. Concentrations represent what remains in the atmosphere after the complex system of interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, cryosphere and the oceans. About a quarter of the total emissions is absorbed by the oceans and another quarter by the biosphere.

Global emissions are not estimated to peak by 2030, let alone by 2020, if current climate policies and ambition levels of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are maintained. Preliminary findings from the Emissions Gap Report 2019 indicate that greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise in 2018, according to an advanced chapter of the Emissions Gap Report released as part of a United in Science synthesis for the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Action Summit in September.

The United in Science report, which brought together major partner organizations in the domain of global climate change research, underlined the glaring – and growing – gap between agreed targets to tackle global warming and the actual reality.

"The findings of WMO's Greenhouse Gas Bulletin and UNEP's Emissions Gap Report point us in a clear direction - in this critical period, the world must deliver concrete, stepped-up action on emissions," said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). "We face a stark choice: set in motion the radical transformations we need now, or face the consequences of a planet radically altered by climate change."

A separate and complementary Emissions Gap Report by UN Environment will be released on 26 November. Now in its tenths year, the Emissions Gap report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions; they compare these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” is known as the emissions gap.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the Summit had delivered “a boost in momentum, cooperation and ambition. But we have a long way to go.”

This will now be taken forward by the UN Climate Change Conference, which will be held from 2 to15 December in Madrid, Spain, under the presidency of Chile.

Key Findings of the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin

The bulletin includes a focus on how isotopes confirm the dominant role of fossil fuel combustion in the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

There are multiple indications that the increase in the atmospheric levels of CO2 are related to fossil fuel combustion. Fossil fuels were formed from plant material millions of years ago and do not contain radiocarbon. Thus, burning it will add to the atmosphere radiocarbon-free CO2, increasing CO2 levels and decreasing its radiocarbon content. And this is exactly what is demonstrated by the measurements.


Carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide is the main long-lived greenhouse gas in the atmosphere related to human activities. Its concentration reached new highs in 2018 of 407.8 ppm, or 147% of pre-industrial level in 1750.

The increase in CO2 from 2017 to 2018 was above the average growth rate over the last decade. The growth rate of CO2 averaged over three consecutive decades (1985–1995, 1995–2005 and 2005–2015) increased from 1.42 ppm/yr to 1.86 ppm/yr and to 2.06 ppm/yr with the highest annual growth rates observed during El Niño events.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index shows that from 1990 to 2018 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 43%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of this increase

Methane

Methane (CH4) is the second most important long-lived greenhouse gas and contributes about 17% of radiative forcing. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (e.g., wetlands and termites), and about 60% comes from human activities like cattle breeding, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning.

Atmospheric methane reached a new high of about 1869 parts per billion (ppb) in 2018 and is now 259% of the pre-industrial level. For CH4, the increase from 2017 to 2018 was higher than both that observed from 2016 to 2017 and the average over the last decade.

Nitrous Oxide

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%), including oceans, soil, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes.

Its atmospheric concentration in 2018 was 331.1 parts per billion. This is 123% of pre-industrial levels. The increase from 2017 to 2018 was also higher than that observed from 2016 to 2017 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years.

Nitrous oxide also plays an important role in the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer which protects us from the harmful ultraviolet rays of the sun. It accounts for about 6% of radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-relea...et-another-high
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 23 2019, 02:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$spx " Stock Market Commentary 11/22/2019

By Lawrence G. McMillan The broad market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has continued to rise, making new all-time intraday or closing highs on six consecutive recent trading days, culminating (so far) with November 19th. This move has not been reflected in some of the technical indicators, however, and so there are some divergences, sell signals, and extremely overbought conditions arising.
For now, though, the $SPX chart is positive. There are higher highs and higher lows, accompanied by strongly advancing trend lines. There is minor support in the 3065-3070 area, with strong support at 3025-3030 (the area of the previous highs).

Equity-only ratios continue to decline, as call buying has remained heavy and steady.


These ratios are at their lowest levels in over a year and are thus very overbought but still bullish.

Market breadth has been our most negative indicator. Both breadth oscillators rolled over to sell signals recently.

So, the above paragraphs have laid out some pretty negative data, from extremely overbought put-call ratios to sell


signals in mBB and breadth. But the one area that is not turning negative is volatility.


$VIX remains at low levels and hasn't even peeked its head up on recent down days. As long as that is the case, it's bullish for stocks.

In summary, short-term bearish positions are in order, but the intermediate-term remains positive as


long as the $SPX and $VIX charts continue to remain in the bullish camp.

charts:


https://www.optionstrategist.com/weekly-cha..._eid=c5d2a13444
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 12:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

in the mail from www.thechartist.com
if youre new to trading/investing, commend you take a gander at Nick's work (successful funds manager and top educator, free stuff too)
50 Bite Size Trading Tips and Tricks

1. Don’t try to read into other people’s trading decisions.
2. By all means like a stock, but don’t try to be best friends with it forever. Instead, spend time nurturing positions that are being kind to you.

3. Beware the Beginner's Cycle. The want to be right will cause you to collect courses and books and will only be a costly and frustrating exercise. The secret is elsewhere.

4. Actually, there is no secret. It’s all in the maths.

5. Losses when trading are inevitable, but losses should always be limited.

6. Have a prepared trading plan so you don’t rush into bad decisions. Time spent planning will help you avoid catastrophic losses, riding the emotional roller coaster, and other unnecessary headaches.

7. Get off your high horse. Your ego will eventually cost you dearly.

8. Validate your strategy before you risk your capital.

9. Don’t waste your time on other trader’s successes. The only person you’re competing against is yourself.

10. Ignore any broker that tells you to buy when there is blood in the streets. You can be sure it’s not theirs.

11. Outsource to people who do the stuff they’re better at so you can do the stuff you’re better at.

12. Make haste slowly. Ensure you have a validated strategy that has an edge and ensure you have a full understanding of the journey ahead of you. The markets will always be there. What won’t be there if you’re in too much of a hurry is the capital in your account.

13. Understand positive expectancy. When you see it, you’ll get it.

14. Ask someone you trust if you are unsure.

15. Risk a small amount of capital on each trade.

16. Sentiment will drive the market, or a stock, a lot further than logic ever will.

17. Only fools claim to know the future.

18. Don’t be a dick for a tick. Saving a few cents here and there will only cost you dollars later on.

19. You can’t control the market. Don’t waste your time by watching every trade tick along.

20. Find a strategy that makes sense to you.

21. Be curious and keep a trading diary. Don’t be scared to learn something new.

22. Explore new ideas and opportunities often.

23. Let go of things you can’t change. Concentrate on things you can.

24. There is no point questioning the market.

25. The market will pay you when it’s ready. You just need to be there when it does.

26. Find a strategy you actually enjoy following.

27. Realize that the harder you work, the luckier you will become.

28. Risk not thy whole wad. There is a reason why compounding is the 8th Wonder of the World.

29. However good or bad a situation is now, it will change. Accept that positive expectancy sometimes takes time to show its hand.

30. Realize that being right does not equate to profits.

31. 45% of trades will tend be profitable. 45% will tend be losses. 10% will be breakeven. Your job is to make the winners count.

32. Make mistakes, learn from them, laugh about them, and move along.

33. Successful trading is not a sprint. Buffet didn’t earn his reputation in a single year �" or decade.

34. The only thing you can control is the amount of money you’re willing to lose on each trade.

35. Don’t over think things. Simple works best. Complex will eventually break.

36. Understand why your strategy makes money.

37. If you can’t pull the trigger it’s usually because you don’t trust the strategy you’re using. Stop and re-evaluate.

38. Trends can’t not exist.

39. The biggest hurdle to overcome is between your ears.

40. Don’t fear the market. It can’t actually hurt you. You can hurt you though.

41. The object of gaining a trading education isn’t knowledge; it’s to enable action.

42. Never move a stop backward. You’re mind is screwing with you.

43. Rules you can’t or won’t follow are of no use to you.

44. Your initial reaction to any adverse situation is usually wrong.

45. Risk and volatility are not the same. Volatility can increase returns. Risk can increase losses.

46. Think long term with regard to strategy application. Performance and trade outcomes in the short term are random.

47. The keys to success are consistency, discipline and patience. They cannot be bought.

48. Every stock that goes bankrupt exhibits a sustained downtrend first.

49. Any strategy is only as good as the person using it.

50. Take responsibility for every decision you make.

Good trading!


Nick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 12:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

2 of 2
$xjo price needs to close below 6651 to confirm the resistance has held ......not looking likely at this time
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 22 2019, 11:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo needs to break thru this 2 x ratio resistance to cull the sell side view
thus far today has been a very clean bid so my sell-up is looking a tad suspectstill worth the effort to hold

STO's while running small longs against the bigger view
#jackbeveryfriggingnimble
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 03:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

nearterm, offers have a better look than bids,

the bigger picture has not revealed a burning uptrend, tends to fill a picture of more consolidation if a new uptrend is to kick off
the down arrow=STO with stop just above

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

am holding STO's on $xjo and $dax but very small size, awaiting a bounce to give a larger signal, if the bounces struggle we can look for a larger sell
all the high beta US indexes + the DJTA are major laggards v. the $SPX .....no need to rush but i'd be uber cautious on longs
keep in mind "news fits the trend"
keep an eye on the $BEAR etf, liquidity flowing into the $SPXU (US) and $BEAR funds are a good sign of sellside expansion

liquidity has to be put to work, the question is where?
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 11:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

def not a bid set-up for mine $xjo
we have initial trend rotation on a "minor" level but given the back ground trade o'seas you'll need a decent pair of butchers gloves to buy this
also bware the false -positive signals in the generic indicia
$hsi cfd closed at 80% bids (buy to open) ......yeah, that's not a good look for bids either !!
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo buyer beware
may reach for 62% but sudden bids on a sell set-up rarely good for more than a few mins

Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 09:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

mate, you win the personality stakes biggrin.gif

careful on size, it easy to get a burst against you especially designed for the early movers (weak shorts) to have to buy back what the smart money wants to sell

in $dax (cash) , we may see an outside-down weekly bar if we stay below 13135's thursday/friday





  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 08:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

it's a common refrain "youre losing me"

the acceptance of an idea that when given other data points confuses

what this is, is, a pattern....simply put....and i agree that weather, cycles, weather cycles, climate cycles, interglacial, ice ages, solar irradiation, warbling n what-have-yous(e)...the whole thing is not and can not be linear

and i dont know the future .....i only know that patterns once repeating take time to. well. un-repeat, the question is are they repeating in intensity, not rapidity, just intensity

the point of this thread is and has been to post data points that offer validity to the climate activity and put away gut feel

and yes i agree it is easy to post based on bias

which is the reason that the majority of posts carry little commentary other than the original authors and that most the authors have vast study, they are not gurus or personas. most have a multi year singular study in the subjects of geo(earth) sciences or physics

as a reader one must first ascertain if their own bias cherrypicks to the bias they want in exactly the the same way a poster should be aware they are cherrypicking to fit their (my) own bias

in any conversation it is as much an onus on the speaker to know the person listening has understood them as much as it is the onus of the listener to hear correctly

the trick is to know how to listen (and conversely) to know how to speak

todate, the more concise the data, provided by studied authors, the more i am inclined to think the trends and patterns eventing carry significant consequence

and that is emotive as i'll get on the subject

the point of this thread is at least to go, in some small way, to answering questions that most people (like me) do not know the right questions to ask in the first instance

i get your frustration

posting in the effort to ensure there is some light on what is useable or workable

we have integrity and honesty as hallmarks of life because they are workable not because they are righteous

gossip and guru opinions are not workable regardless of which side of the debate we are on

in that regard if climate and weather are not linear then we can agree they are (at least) interconnected albeit in different scales of time and impact
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#patterns ...few of my fave things ...except these
https://www.news.com.au/national/sydney-smo...4cb5c8b4e485632
" More than a dozen temperature records have been broken across South Australia today.

The state sweltered through a day of catastrophic bushfire danger, with blazes burning at emergency levels.

The Bureau of Meteorology said multiple areas broke their maximum November temperature records, including:

  • Hindmarsh Island 40.7C
  • Nullarbor 46.6C
  • Murray Bridge Airport 44.0C
  • Kingscote Airport 39.1C
  • Stenhouse Bay 40.1C
  • Robe Airfield 38.0C
  • Parafield 44.3C
  • Keith 44.3C
  • Padthaway South 39.9C
  • Clare 40.8C
  • Strathalbyn 43.1C
  • Lameroo 44.0C
  • Naracoorte 40.2C
  • Parndana 38.1C
  • Nuriootpa 42.1C
Attached Image

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1196964481768644608

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 06:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

didnt even get tto post that last one before $dax banged thru 13110's !!
momo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 06:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

i think it prudent if youre looking for positional trade to await the boundary to be broken, and then take the signal, i mean, all this choppy sludge uphill is clear in the chart but it doesnt give a clean enrty/exit signal, there's always a lag for me, a confirming signal offers less getting chopped out than if the signal is taken too early, again, that's from a positional trade perspective
the "throw-over" is a clean call but it too required a confirmation signal which we havent seen in the cash...yet
am also STO $dax but need to see 13110's taken out to call a larger trend swing there .....it's easy to mix the idea of buyers holding back versus sellers dominating when there's not enough data (time) to give the nod
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 03:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo $cash

this is a probable look, up in 3's + a throw-over qualifies under the EW orthodox count for mine
may need another upswing, price has to close below the lower boundary to confirm a larger pattern rotation,

the bid/offer boundaries are very close giving the smallest risk length

am currently with the offer overnight small size
the daily chart asks the question if the Australian equities requires a sizeable reset in value terms (meaning we need to retrace a decent % to attract new liquidity, to establish a level that is seen as decent bargain value for capital risk + yield

if the wedge plays out the lower daily high would = a truncated pattern (failed higher high) which would fit well with a wedge rotation

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

4 of 4
#risk #portfolio #bond #liquidity

follow-up to previous post on this as a lens of risk

$spx v CCC
as with the $rut and $sml high beta indexes the speccy end of town has decided the CCC rated bonds are just too much risk
keep in mind this "high yield corp bonds at the speccie end of town, fast money jockies

sure, it's naff pov for timing but for bias, it's a beaut !!
https://us.spindices.com/indices/fixed-inco...-bond-ccc-index
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#idea

$xjo
another lens to view the xao/xjo is an etf
$BEAR
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 11:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo the constant recent (few weeks in the tri shape) distribution suggests the breadth has been weak relative to recent incline making the local indexes prone to sells with o'seas indexes
retail buying the opens and pros selling the session
breadth in US indexes has been thin, the high betas are still way below their altime highs as the $spx charged uphill, it sets up a "shoulda seen that"

better to at least be tight with size than naive about price lengths
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

HSI seems getting up again atm.
the cfd swing high at 27940 is the level to beat to confirm a longerterm low has printed for mine, altho closing above 27735 on an impsulsive leg would satisfy
i think we can distrust moves in both directions still as the cfd positioning is simply too early, eager movers BTO are wrong for an index that's been under constant pressure ....at least the risk levels are clearly defined
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 03:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

and another kick up in the arvo Asian session
pattern is very clean since yesterdays take-off ....bids have a very good look

silver confirms gold move, little lag and only a few hours adrift
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 02:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Sustainable Business
November 19, 2019 / 1:01 PM / Updated an hour ago
Neoen to expand world's largest lithium ion battery in Australia
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hornsdal..._source=twitter
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1196521211410305024
Attached Image


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 19 2019, 12:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

both $xauusd and $silver caught decent rotation bids (clean structure), likely we're headed to at least halfway back up the current downchannels

..or better

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 17 2019, 08:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

The oldest & thickest #Arctic sea ice is disappearing 2X as fast as ice in the rest of the Arctic Ocean according to new research in
@theAGU's GRL.


Watch the old ice disappear via a visualization that uses NSIDC DAAC data

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/11/wat...lowly-disappear


" Researchers have identified what they’re calling the “last ice area,” a 2000-kilometer stretch of ocean northwest of Greenland where the Arctic’s summertime sea ice might survive for a few more decades.

As reported in Geophysical Research Letters and depicted above, sea ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean has declined, on average, by more than one-third from 1984 through 2018. Only in two portions of the last ice area—one patch immediately north of Greenland, and another swath centered more than 1300 kilometers to the west along Canada’s northernmost islands—does near-total sea-ice coverage persist from year to year, the researchers say.

Unlike the rest of the Arctic Ocean, ice thicknesses in these two regions range up to a maximum of 4 meters or so. But the team’s new analysis also reveals that ice loss there is occurring at twice the rate it is elsewhere in the Arctic Ocean. These two areas of persistent (for now) sea ice may be the final northern realms where wildlife largely dependent on sea ice for survival, such as polar bears, walrus, and narwhals, can hold out in a warming world, the scientists say. "

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi...29/2019GL083722

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 03:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

smooth move above the 2buk level, no blazing signals, this move will have a lot of attention about the possibility of a longer term low
  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 15 2019, 11:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

honkers still carries hallmarks of lower lows, the jumps are early bids, retail still too keen for a downswing suggesting still too early for BTO's
beware the pop in $xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 10:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

another (Brit) Lewis chrissy add

https://twitter.com/i/status/1194884227004809216

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 07:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Tom
Modeled reconstruction of October #Arctic sea ice volume since 1901
- comparison between PIOMAS-20C and PIOMAS data sets
now updated through October 2019



Attached Image



" The y-axis limit is intentionally selected for comparison with our paper using

a volume threshold of 1000 km³ for "ice-free" conditions in future projections"
some great insight here:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11...CLI-D-17-0436.1

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 04:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

ah, got it
" Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group (BABA - Get Report) is looking to kick off a Hong Kong share offering to raise as much as





$15 billion later this month, despite ongoing protests in the China-controlled city-state that have been marked by months of protests.

The U.S.-listed online marketplace known as the "Amazon of China" is expected to seek approval from Hong Kong's listing committee as early as next Thursday. The listing process and book-build would then proceed during the week of Nov. 25, according to Reuters.

Alibaba had been working on an August listing in Hong Kong but put the effort on hold amid anti-government protests and general economic uncertainty in the region.

However, expectations have been that it would eventually move forward, as Alibaba views the Hong Kong deal as a way to diversify its access to capital markets, according to analysts.

If it proceeds, the transaction would be the world's largest cross-border secondary listing. Alibaba currently holds the record for the biggest initial public offering for its $25 billion float in New York in 2014.
https://www.thestreet.com/video/alibaba-is-...unrest-15160009

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 04:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#bitcoin


https://www.elliottwave.com/Free-Events/Fre...1112sub%22catch


free actually means free


#fillyerboots


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Join in now,
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

what a beast
Alibaba has been approved for a secondary listing in Hong Kong and aims to raise up to US$15 billion.
(Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.)

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3037469/stocks-blog-alibaba-approved-list-hong-kong-selling-us15-billion
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

try this

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech...sn-t-need-money
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 12:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

lol, thanks, even Pat Boone has renditioned

still one of my fave top bathroom hits

ahem
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 11:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#that'sinteresting #cycle #idea

since the last significant swing high there has been a high-to-low-to-high symmetry in time
the bounce has thus far been even less than grinding and xauusd has not fared much better at 30% bounce
if we were in a trend rotation i think we'd see a better kick, so price is hinting by its construction that we're in a relief bounce
tell me quando you see ?
Attached Image






(true story, Tom Jones sang "tell me quando quando quaaaandoah" because quando means "what" in English so...
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 14 2019, 11:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

holding the bod $xjo
honkers still on its way to the lower value zone
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 09:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

COMMODITIES
NOVEMBER 13, 2019 / 5:04 PM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Lithium producers hit by first big downturn of electric vehicle era

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lithium-..._source=twitter
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 01:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

https://youtu.be/WsSlPBf43AI
retails doesnt have to be on the wrong side but when it opens at 84% bid ......$hsi
you can take the sucker out of the market .....but ya just cant take the sucker out of the market....
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 12:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$hsi cfd opened pre-cash with 84% buy to open by top holders and 69% buy to open by all-clients
small hint long is wrong, snapped the symmetry, we're going lower to retest 25300 zone best guess,
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 10:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Mick
both silver gold caught bids at their lows this morning, probably a grind uphill for a few days before the next tough questions gets asked
1472 appears near term target for xauusd, 17.27's silver front month contract (cfd)
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 13 2019, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo losing it's structure, lifting in 3's failing to hold onto bids struggling with 6780 .....still in distribution mode, a limp biscuit!
wide swings in the overnight cash implied cfd (front month contract), lots of scouting stops both directions
keep your eye on the BEAR (BETASHARES AUSTRALIAN EQUITIES BEAR HEDGE FUND) to see if you can see a bully signal there



  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$dax $spx (and rest of US indexes) look like melt-up mode
but high beta $sml still lags

i have an overhead resistance 3108 for $spx

PM's are selling off in convincing impulsive trend so far
have to respect the system that gets me out of trub, otherwise, follow the money
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 12 2019, 05:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#idea
$HSI
bullish interpretation
#cash

Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

oh, you mean:
"yes, mister customer, we'll fix it soon, it was (cough) just bad data...."
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 11 2019, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

cross check with this site, Mick
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 10 2019, 03:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

more data and horror fodder for you, @tombeet
the bulk of posts are extracts from scientists or peer review studies, so they can tend to be reductionist and require some context, although, in toto,they all carry similar messages or insights


https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
Zack Labe is worth following for ice/heat maps


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  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

https://weather.com/en-IN/india/science/new...l-warming-study

Red Deer are Evolving Within Decades to Adapt to Global Warming: Study

The Weather Channel IndiaVerified account @weatherindia November 7, 2019

Red deer on the Isle of Rum in Scotland
are displaying one of the first evidences of wild animals evolving by altering their birthing patterns in order to adapt to global warming. And this evolution is happening in decades, not centuries! " In the new research published this week, a team of scientists, led by Dr Timothée Bonnet of the Australian National University, has “documented evolution in action” using field records and collecting genetic data on rum deer over a 45-year period, dating back to 1972. "
===========
" Red deer on the Isle of Rum in Scotland are displaying one of the first evidences of wild animals evolving by altering their birthing patterns in order to adapt to global warming. And this evolution is happening in decades, not centuries!

Charles Darwin believed that evolution is a slow and gradual process. And until 1972, when Stephen Jay Gould proposed the theory of Punctuated Equilibrium, this was true for the scientific community. As per Jay’s theory, species stayed structurally similar for millions of years, followed by rapid bursts of change that result in a new species. However, both the models of evolution showed that it takes hundreds and thousands of years for organisms to develop different characteristics.

However, the shift in the red deer’s birthing pattern is one of the very rare instances of evolution occurring in nature over such a short period of time�"that too because of anthropocentric warming acting as the environmental trigger. "

" The shift in birth timings is down to the effects of warmer temperatures on the deer’s behaviour and physiology. Now, researchers hope that this new adaptation may very well help the red deer population thrive as the climate continues to warm. "

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" Previous studies have shown that since the 1980s, red deer repeatedly began giving birth to their young ones earlier than normal. Data shows this date has been shifting backwards at a rate of about three days per decade.

In the new research published this week, a team of scientists, led by Dr Timothée Bonnet of the Australian National University, has “documented evolution in action” using field records and collecting genetic data on rum deer over a 45-year period, dating back to 1972.

In this study, the researchers observed that the deer that give birth earlier in the year experience more reproductive success. Female red deer, called hinds, are known to give birth to a single calf each year. However, those that give birth earlier in the year produce more calves over their lifetime compared to the hinds that give birth during the latter stages of the year.

Subsequently, as the deer that give birth early have multiplied faster, the gene that causes birth earlier has become much more common among the rum deer population over the past few decades�"in line with the natural selection process from Charles Darwin’s Theory of Evolution. "


The study is published in the journal PLOS Biology.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 12:54 PM


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Posts: 1,167

a follow-up Q&A for the post this post is replying to
Q
@matsfreedom
2 weeks ago
" Since CO2 is the issue, what percentage is optimal? How little is too little? How much is too much? Is 0.04% the ideal amount for life on Earth? Without this understanding, the arguments regarding its presence in the atmosphere are incomplete, if not utterly pointless. Perhaps more is better. Perhaps a lot more is better. Perhaps less is disastrous. So, how much is just right? In addition, the current narrative is that we're all going to be dead or under water in 12 years, so why isn't the West fighting China and India with bombs and missiles to force them to comply with net zero emissions guidelines? How much of our atmosphere will be polluted with CO2, causing world wide, mass extinctions? If it's going to kill all of us, certainly the "scientific community" "
A
potholer54 2 weeks ago " @matsfreedom wrote: "Since CO2 is the issue, what percentage is optimal?" Nature doesn't care, it is whatever it is, whether the Earth is frozen over or in a hothouse. The issue is what matters for the global economy. Our civilization and our modern economy grew out of the temperature and sea level and ice quantity we have. Radically changing that will mean a hugely expensive change of economic structure. "
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 12:46 PM


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Posts: 1,167

and next flying climate airways we have the US Federal Reserve...if this is fanaticism theyre going all in.....

EnvironmentNovember 9, 2019 / 3:52 AM / Updated 6 hours ago<h1 class="ArticleHeader_headline">Fed sees climate change shaping economy, policy</h1>
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank signaled on Friday it may be getting ready to join international peers in incorporating climate change risk into its assessments of financial stability, and may even take it into account when setting monetary policy.

“To fulfill our core responsibilities, it will be important for the Federal Reserve to study the implications of climate change for the economy and the financial system and to adapt our work accordingly,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in remarks released at the start of the Fed’s first-ever conference on climate change and economics.

The Fed, she said, will need to look at how to keep banks and the financial system resilient amid risks from extreme weather, higher temperatures, rising sea levels and other effects of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

And increasingly, she said, “it will be important for the Federal Reserve to take into account the effects of climate change and associated policies in setting monetary policy to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability.”

Brainard’s comments mark a shift for the Fed, which lags other major central banks that have made climate change an explicit part of their financial stability remits. Her talk, the first she’s given in her five-year tenure at the Fed that even mentions the subject, suggests she and her colleagues are taking the risks and costs of global warming seriously.

The U.S. central bank’s attention to global warming comes even as President Donald Trump’s administration denies it exists. Trump on Monday notified the United Nations that the United States will in 12 months leave the Paris Climate Accord, under which 195 nations agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a bid to prevent catastrophic planetary warming.

Scientists are in broad agreement that carbon dioxide from cars, power plants and other human sources are behind the climate change that’s already making powerful hurricanes, severe drought, and other weather extremes more frequent.






RISING RISKS, SLOWING ECONOMIES
The San Francisco Fed’s conference, so oversubscribed that a webcast has been created to meet demand, gave policymakers a crash course in research that could change how the Fed forecasts economic growth, regulates banks, and even sets interest rates.

Papers presented at the conference showed how climate change has crimped growth and presented ideas on how policy, including monetary policy, can be used to mitigate harm.

University of Southern California professor Hashem Pesaran showed that rising average temperatures and volatile precipitation - both effects of climate change - have already slowed U.S. economic output in recent decades.

Meeting Paris Accord goals, the paper found, could limit losses to per capita U.S. GDP from planetary warming over the next 80 years to 3% or less, versus 14% if goals are not met.

Swedish central bank economist Conny Olovsson used an economic model to show losses to economic growth from imposing a carbon tax - an objection often raised by politicians and industry - would be dwarfed by the economic losses projected if carbon dioxide remains largely untaxed and global warming continues unchecked.

In a third paper, Nicholas Muller, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, outlined how the Fed might factor environmental circumstances into monetary policy by, for example, keeping rates lower when pollution levels were increasing, to encourage consumption before they got worse, and higher when pollution was declining, to depress spending until the environment improved.





ed policymakers appeared receptive to the ideas.

“Climate change is an issue we can’t afford to ignore,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said at the start of the conference, a day that also marked the one-year anniversary of a fire 150 miles north of San Francisco that killed 85 people and destroyed 14,000 homes, a conflagration blamed in part on climate change. “This is not a hypothetical risk of the future...the risks are here, we have to deal with them.”

Reporting by Ann Saphir and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Additional reporting by Jonnelle Marte in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci




https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-..._source=twitter


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 9 2019, 09:13 AM


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Posts: 1,167

smash n grab a sell full
weekly bars:
Attached Image


in the above view, do we have an analogue for mid 2017 sell with a bid "hook" ?of course there's no way to know that but it does warn that even tho we have a clean trend construct south there's enough bids to cause a rip


below view, price respects prior swing symmetry, confirms trend construct.......so far
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$spx $sml $rut $nya $nyad $spxadp $ndx

Dow Theory: The DJ Transportation Average made its closing high back on September 14, 2018 at 11,750.84. Yesterday it broke out after 9 months of consolidation. This is very encouraging. A close above this peak will reconfirm a primary bull market a la Dow Theory.
Ralph Acampora CMT
@Ralph_Acampora
·
21h
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 10:25 PM


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Posts: 1,167

Mick

more discounted stocks to come monday

very orderly decline, trend construct $xauusd

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 04:12 PM


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Posts: 1,167

https://youtu.be/CcmCBetoR18
a decent enough video to give an insight on how, at least, that non-scientific examples are but rebuttles alone and not much more
..not to put too finer point on "it"
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 04:00 PM


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yeah, expected better momo that we're currently seeing even tho we've had clean heels on many sessions
did a larger study this arvo for this as it's been buggin me most of this week $HSI :
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 02:11 PM


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Posts: 1,167

kiwis, doing it for themselves, slice of heaven n they wanna keep it that way

https://twitter.com/i/moments/1192521833490214917
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 12:34 PM


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Posts: 1,167

getting there, wherever that is
XGD0.0000.0006,535.400-372.100 -5.40%
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 8 2019, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

huh ?

XGD

0.000

0.000

6,659.600

-247.900

-3.60%

huh.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 7 2019, 05:36 PM


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Posts: 1,167

diiing !
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 7 2019, 02:55 PM


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amp on the bid, keeping a clean impulsive construction...needs to close above 1.99/2.00 to get buyer conviction


refer this post:
https://boards.sharecafe.com.au/index.php?s...st&p=901948
  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 10:11 PM


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Posts: 1,167

$xauusd looks like it wants another slalom run, bids have been lacking, other recent downswings were at least active enough to display intent to buy the dip, this time it's very quiet
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 12:20 PM


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Posts: 1,167

$xauusd trip downhill looks similar to recent trips downhill, cfd players 73% long at the low, they think rinse repeat, i think more downside to come once this move to correct yesterday completes
a decent shake-up
good call on the $xgd components .... - 2.6% so far and prob not enough to drag in the money that'll swing it north
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 6 2019, 12:14 PM


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Posts: 1,167

suggest allowing decent width for a decent swing on honkers, still room for a retest of the low zone
meanwhile, local xjo is currently having amber poured on it so it doesnt have to move at all.......SFJ excl.gif
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 04:18 PM


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adding to sells $XAUUSD this arvo, bid construct has fallen to bits...so now it's how much are the BTO have their STC set at 1500 as is normal for weakhands
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 03:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Reuters‏Verified account @Reuters 2h2 hours ago

President Trump said he hadn’t heard reports that smugglers were cutting through the U.S.-Mexico border wall. ‘One of the reasons we did it the way we did it, it's very easily fixed. You put the chunk back in,’ he said.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 02:57 PM


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Posts: 1,167

#China
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 5 2019, 02:11 PM


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#RBA $xjo
kept rates on hold.......oh the yelling n screaming n....... yawning....lots of yawning ......not so much yelling or screaming
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 11:45 PM


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Posts: 1,167

Mick

seems like every session has been a do-or-die for either side and the STO's (sell to open) have been a large % of all open positions at 45% (55% Buy To Open)

typically the XAUUSD carries a 60% long bias in cfd's

I'm currently STO stop at 1519's

the sell-side has more to prove than the bidside when this stop pops at which point the minimum move is at least an equal high around 1556's

my main sell reasoning are all technical and currently tenuous as most of the technical bias have already eroded by persistant bid pressure but the construct is a mess

clear as mud ........as is this post
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 07:11 PM


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$spx overnight implied cash cfd are 98% sell to open
....the quants are back....in retail....lol
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 02:10 PM


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another glaring distribution day $xjo ....still highs to come next cupla weeks? likely

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 4 2019, 12:17 PM


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whether scaled or not the margin of risk on the $hsi overnight is considerably less upwards thru 27400's
it's a hint not to have a trailing stop too close, still some bot opportunities to test the strength of bids
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 3 2019, 11:56 AM


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https://twitter.com/i/moments/1190622427052695552
uk bans fracking #gas
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 05:04 PM


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Posts: 1,167

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-macquari..._source=twitter


November 1, 2019 / 8:59 AM / Updated an hour ago
Australia's Macquarie posts record first-half on trading, asset management gains
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 11:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

xjo volatility made for a good morning, in distribution mode, likely much higher on a weekly basis but i wouldnt take a hailmary bet on this either way
compression in hsi another good sign of step upwards
as i type spx overtnight top clients cfd pos' are 95% sell to open, all clients are 65% STO, dax 73% tops clients STO and all clients 77% STO
.......someone gettin squeezed

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Nov 1 2019, 11:31 AM


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Posts: 1,167

AMP attempting to break out of the channel + break out above the last swing high at 1.90
it would need to show some momentum to attract more than short covering liquidity

  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 31 2019, 12:26 PM


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no window dressing into end of month .....we have some ways to get lower $xjo
some divergences in the CCC junk bond relative to the S&P500
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 06:20 PM


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Posts: 1,167

no particular reason:

The Motley Fool Australia‏Verified account @TheMotleyFoolAu Sep 22 Did you know billionaire Warren Buffett made 99% of his current wealth after his 50th birthday?

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 30 2019, 02:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Walter Murphy's post suggests no deterioration of internal markers, more of the same expected with a cupla headfakes
unusually large % of retail traders are short most markets.....all trying to pick a top....more squeezing
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 10:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

Walter Murphy
@waltergmurphy
S&P 500: 1) index at a record, 2) breadth at a record, 3) OBV at a record
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 29 2019, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

in the instance of actual systemic failure the correct question is :

got a bag of salt .....several bags of salt ?
lol
if you have gold the only person buying from you is someone with a bag of.....lemme guess......gold ?
here i'll give you a bar of gold for one of your bars of gold, what for, what are we gunna do with it? .....ask the guy with the salt, he's in most demand
rolleyes.gif

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 28 2019, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

ending diag wedge thingy in the $spx (all hours cash implied cfd)
Attached Image


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 25 2019, 12:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xauusd had a pretty good run at the overhead channel

...after several hours of stagnant price action a group came in to bid it up squeez STO's and cause a run

breaking thru would be very bullish

printing a hyperbolic type move today supported by similar swing in silver, $dxy appears to have found a swing low too creating headwind

Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 24 2019, 01:17 PM


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Posts: 1,167

signs we're still some ways from a major top: retailers hitting new highs
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 24 2019, 11:54 AM


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on the bid $hsi
PMI #'s tonight from euro zone tonight wont affect Asia but likely give metals a stir
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 24 2019, 10:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

trend days...driving a parked bus.....wet paint in a fist fight.....
sad.gif
$xjo
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 07:37 PM


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Posts: 1,167

thanks
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 05:44 PM


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Posts: 1,167

if people can only get the simple concept of two streams of liquidity
bid or buy to open
sell or sell to open
a healthy market is increased by both forms of liquidity travelling thru it
players who are short are forced to cover by bids overwhelming the offer, this forces more liquidity thru the auction
the bottom line is there must be competing liquidity flows
the bids compete to get available supply forcing price up
the offer competes to get available short-sale supply forcing price down
there is no morality to this effort
it is simply supply and demand
the biggest issue is the understanding of this effort, this is a businesslong-only traders and investors have been slowly bled into the knowledge of the two different streams of liquidity
so that's the other issue of a lack of knowledge
most investors forget the work required to be fully informed on buying stocks (etc) but not of how to best utilise the selling of stocks (etc)and while it can be argued that sell-to-open provides no benefit to society (like securitised derivatives)one cannot hide behind naivety of the whole exercise which is to sell something or buy something to make money
...if its ok to buy something (bigger fool theory) to sell onwards to someone else and make moneythen selling something to someone to buy back from someone else and make money, surely, these two things are equal in their practise ?
in the very early days of the Bourse, trading was considered like jazz music was considered, like the anti-horse motor vehicle was considered
people fill in the blanks of ignorance with subjective ethics that have nothing to do with the operation of buying and selling
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 02:13 PM


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Posts: 1,167

it's very good news to fit the retracement, honkers should go like a rocket on a higher high 26850's
locally a big fat yawn on the news, selling dried up super quick just after 11am $xjo
markets still hold bullish
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 12:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

scratch that trade !
$hsi
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 23 2019, 12:33 PM


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Posts: 1,167

buy invitation on honkers low post carrie lam replacement annoc
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 12:53 PM


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Posts: 1,167

review, weekly basis
cyclical pump-it/sell-it within a channel, breaking that cycle and breaking the channel a + for the stock, which has gone "quiet" in the public domain of angsty chat
Attached Image


  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 10:27 AM


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Posts: 1,167

are we getting some blow-off type moves as US $spx heads into ratio resistance 3030-3035's ...getting thru there would be uber

bullish if the high betas such as $sml back it up and $xbd shows some upward trend, otherwise,

asking who's doing all that selling to the latecomers ?
Asian zone bid is coming from a low, North American/Euro bid is coming from a high

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 22 2019, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

nipper (looks up thesaurus, it says look up dictionary: "nipper" to be an anti-hero, to post against the consensus, to go against the herd)
true story
retail cfd's moved from 66% Buy To Open pre dump this morning to 73% BTO currently, less fear more "bargains"
the "cheaper" it gets the more retail is persuaded to go all in bidside
both metals back well within their initial downchannels, heading for the middle ground as the the channels slope down
the impulsive sells are being ignored by retail and probably a few money managers too
at this point the auction can still considered balanced from a levels-only perspective, for mine the STO appears the least risk

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 21 2019, 09:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

churn higher, $xjo
yep
riding the back of the honkers horse
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 20 2019, 01:43 PM


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Posts: 1,167

eb
#ideas #bond #junk #CCC #asapercentage #asaratio

am watching junk bonds for divergence, while both major equity groups and junk bonds remain in an incline it it clear on a % basis theyre no longer in sync
the breadth on NYSE remains healthy enough but the difference between junk bonds and equities is flat as a ratio
https://us.spindices.com/indices/fixed-inco...-bond-ccc-index

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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 20 2019, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

trade ideas
the trending thing is not happening for either BTO's or STO's
friday looked like it held a sell but immediately recovered but that recovery had no follow-thru, but, clearly, there was intent to accumulatethe question is now what signals are there that there is enough liquidity to flip from sideways sell to break-out bid

we appear to be on a large chop fest which is good when adjusted-to, within what is a standard bullflag, falling thru the "initial" channel or breaking above the channel will probably bring some momo but i think more likely downside than up, given how hard it is to attract new money to all the money that is already in the BTO game it would require the extreme hedgers short to reverse, what's more likely is a chop thru the roof of the channel to retap and make a secondary high giving major hedgers to get set again and convince the BTO crowd an "incontrovertible" trend (this has already been declared recently by an in-house guru)

....cough

if we revisit the simple ABC where C only just over-extended the 1:1 ratio of A (100% same-length price swing) then we have two larger ideas that favour the BTO's
what does favour the STO's is the extreme positions in the COT which is still being pared back, the more it's pared back the more this favours the BTO's
if we look back as an analogue we can see other occasions when the orthodox idea of a simple ABC pullback appears bullish but simply falls to bits and on those occasions the COT has not had such an extreme positioning of hedgers who are in STO's and managers who are in BTO's, this implies, from my perspective, either we are in for many more weeks of this sideways to down chop, which is fine now i've moved to a open-it/close-it mindset, or, we are about to get a major sell signal, the strong bounce high is in, the sell trend from sept 2011 is back underway
there is no point in putting up a chart that everyone already sees, the game currently is beyond what everyone sees on a multi hour or multi day basis as is the way with a chop trade


"incontrovertible" or not there is no set-forget signal for trend that is absolute, we need a continuation signal for that, small size to get the whips without unnecessary risk is the way to go for now
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 05:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

while avoiding "adjusting" my open positions i thought i'd doodle some posts on ....oh, nuthin spesh
....except
never do i recall, thru 58 years, of banks saying "hey, we'll pay YOU to borrow money from US !!"
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  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 04:58 PM


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Posts: 1,167

good prob $spx will take another bite at 2900's before re-heading to resistance....starting to get congested
honkers still showing clean set of heals so far

xauusd bids struggling lots of fake lifts being sold and silver rolling over within similar large channel
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 01:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

didnt swing much ...lol....needed a defibrillator !!



  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

#swings
#resistancebetter as a tradable instrument than an investment instrument..until

Attached Image


  Forum: By Share Code

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 18 2019, 09:41 AM


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Posts: 1,167

#China #gdp at 1pm
expect some decent volatility on $xjo + $hsi
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 07:27 PM


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Posts: 1,167

$xauusd is clearly stair-stepping lower
techno traders will see several nestled head n shoulder patterns levels failing to remount prior highs = trending
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 16 2019, 01:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xjo
early sellers, way too early sellers have been 85%-90% short most of todays session
a new batch of learner drivers getting their collective crown jewels reshaped

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 15 2019, 01:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

https://twitter.com/ZonePhysics/status/1183348191204388864

see above video for below explanation

YannC‏ @YannCPhoto Oct 13 darker colours absorb all or a part of the light (including infra red), heating up the balloon's surface where the sunlight is concentrated, causing its rupture white colour reflects (and scatters) most of the light (incl. IR) > no heating up > no rupture.

8 replies 36 retweets 449 likes
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 14 2019, 12:04 AM


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Posts: 1,167

news fits the trend
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 03:03 PM


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Posts: 1,167

yep, the WW mostly best fit the usual ABCDE fourth wave construct when it's a broadening wedge (megaphone thingy)
the question is what is the most reliable length once the move is confirmed, there does not appear to be an agreed orthodox price length as a multiple
typically in a triangle, prior to a 5th, the E will travel to 38.2 or 61.8 of C but in a broadening wedge there has never been enough sample size to back test
(not for indexes of this size) and the WW set-up does not guarantee price will travel to the lower down-line, so the 4th of one lessor degree trend appears best target
if price makes new impulsive highs we can probably discount the broadening concept ...at least now we have some boundaries to work with for larger swing


  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 11:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$XBD #equities #indexes

2 charts

broker dealers have been in get-out mode since ist quarter 2018
$SML is the scout, $SPX is the general ....more signs the current rolling top formation is setting up for a swing south as the US elections near
Attached Image


i am working on this theory as it's a repeatable pattern - forming

"sells below here" critical level likely to confirm the pattern
Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 12 2019, 08:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

gold has had a longterm high printed ?
what is golds " Tall Building Index "
try this: This gold card really is a gold card
This hallmarked payment card made of 18-carat gold has been unveiled by the Royal Mint.

However, to acquire one, you'll need £18,750 ($23,547 US).
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1182702648451055622
Attached Image



the gold toilet seat (recently stolen) obviously not enough.......
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

that's an evil knievel look-at-me move by honkz
stunning 600+ sesh not inc the overnights
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

some decent summaries in this, nipper :
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1182354080594685952
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

https://twitter.com/i/status/1182264515078938624
.and we're in .....HSI breaks thru all the ratio resistances on a very strong momo impulsive bid
it would have to fall back thru 25600's given the recent accumulation it's ahrd to see it go and retest the low

...lifting off from the congestion vpoc is a very good sign the low swing is complete daily/weekly basis
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 12:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

...and
$hsi that 26130 level is the risk level for STO's

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 12:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

eb
$hsi
breaking the auction swings upside would be a good sign the slump is over and there are no more bargains or even less supply to get
todays and last widest upswing both have the best accumulation signals, getting thru that 26130 level on impulsive bid would be an invite to hold overnights
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 11 2019, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$xauusd
lacking in momentum but "respecting" the basic initial channel boundaries,

price tried to impel on the fractional deflationary m/m #'s then sold on the hype

Attached Image


USD
CPI m/m
actual 0.0% forecast 0.1% previous 0.1%


USD
Core CPI m/m
actual 0.1% forecast 0.2% previous 0.3%
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

by breaking the overhead down-channel roof pricing would signal bids have won
by passing thru midline confidence of price moving to the lower channel line raises the sellside liquidity
both metals have symmetric channels typical of trend but the whipsaws will disguise the structure, nice volatility!!

arrows=STO
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  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 02:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

if venus have clear proof of a confidentiality agreement,

that cannot be misconstrued, then them waiting for spectrum to find decent size resource is extremely shrewd
if they do not have a concise unequivocal agreement that pre-existed the whole thing is going to get very messy and costly for s/h's

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191010/pdf/...clpcz1ltjrf.pdf
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 01:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

the point of observing bid chase is you know size funds are being committed, but, no one wants to go to price discovery when they dont have to
a decent break out tells us the supply is thinning out and size has to chase...right now the only good news is that the size committed needs to be protected so the downside is limited but a 1k downside is still a decent punch in the mouth if long

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 01:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

i'm only interested in buying the low swings and scaling out on strength ......until we see a decent follow-thru i think there's plenty of price lengths on both sides
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 11:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$hsi
nice aggressive bid chase......good signs of accumulation and compression
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 10 2019, 10:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

yeah, the positioning of retail is a tell currently and it's the wrong way for an uptrend after such a severe sell and literal blood in the streets
majority of cfd "combined" retail are printing 63% BTO (long) so only 37% are sell to open ......really, only 37% !!
the top holders are 54% BTO so that's pretty balanced albeit a small group of cfd traders
so i dont think the low i am looking for is anywhere near in, likely the puke i was looking for wont arrive either
i think there is a strong probability the major US indexes are playing out a very large rotation and we need to see them (at least the $spx)
retest the highs and fail again, at which point, some recognition of the deterioration of the underlying numbers wont be disputed and
we'll get some pretty fast declinesright now i suspect most auctions are allowing smart money to exit longs and mount up shorts so that means churns n burns for the overly eager early movers

both seller and buyer beware
self talk says keep sizes small, wait for trend to get established
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 09:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

back into the upper half of the initial downchannel

in the larger picture we're still printing lower lows and lower lows

breaking the top of the channel would completely alter the outlook, todate most run-ups have been opportunities to sell-into

Attached Image



  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 08:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

hello

my name is jim rickards

i want you to tell me how long this piece of string is

for any doubters this string is real

we know string is real because most of have used some before, it's an everyday thing, so it's validity cannot be questioned

the only thing that can be questioned is - how long is a piece of string

is it soon

is it eventually

is it pending

is it massive

is it huge

is it long in the making

is it going to hold everything together something something when armageddon

just how long is a piece of string
  Forum: Investment Discussion

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

$hsi

with $dax leading a smash down we're on the way to strong lower low and what should be a final low for honkers


https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-vi...-blinks-faster/


Attached Image

  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 02:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

price rallied well today, unlike recent buy-up that were sold into todays run has held up well on added volume
closing at or near the HOD would be a top sign the test of the auction conviction is complete
  Forum: Macro Factors

joules mm1
Posted on: Oct 8 2019, 02:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 1,167

maybe one more whip to come south to make a solid base
....sizing to suit
  Forum: Macro Factors

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