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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Aug 4 2021, 02:29 AM
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The SPX has traded in a 1.3% range (4,372 – 4,429) since gapping higher on Friday, 7/23 – its second 1% gain of that week. And while it’s failed to extend that pop, the index has been doing its best to digest that quick and fervent bounce from the 50 Day MA.



2

That’s been kind to its pattern work up to this stage. Below we take a closer look of each of the SPX’s live and potential bullish and bearish variations.



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First, the most recent breakout through 4,375 (which took place on that same day of 7/23) was quickly tested 7/27. It held. The 4,515 target remains in play.



4
The 6/24 cup and handle breakout was threatened on Monday, 7/19, but that downturn was short-lived. It now has a good deal more wiggle room, and the upside target of 4,4600 is about 1.6% away as of last night’s close.



5
That particular pattern breakout is reminiscent of the April 1st version; it took 11 weeks before that target was achieved. Ironically, that finally happened on 6/24, the SAME day that the June breakout occurred.



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By holding in place since 7/23, a potential bullish flag has developed. That target would be above 4,600 if we do, indeed, see a breakout that’s extended upon in quick order.

7

As is frequently the case, a consolidation phase can often result in a bearish formation, as well. This happened again now. While a break wouldn’t result in an aggressive downside target, it could BEGIN to alter momentum…

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which eventually could make a pattern like this a reality. There’s a while to go before this happens – and the biggest bearish formations have not been successful for over a year now - but it’s something to monitor if the bullish flag isn’t’ completed soon.

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do think "buy the dippers" still alive at this stage


 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 3 2021, 09:48 AM
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S&P500: Keep the bigger picture in perspective with the recent moves as this chart suggests there is a lot more room to move with the overall bullish run. However, this does not discount the odd pullback along the way as trends do not travel in straight lines forever; they tend to zig and zag their way along either bullish or bearish paths. Note how the recent Covid dip does not even figure on this chart!

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jump start then pulling back action last night, gives bearish feeling, for scalping trade. but over all picture is still bullish.


so as ASX200 TODAY. more likely bit of pull back, given strong performance triggered by MA activities.



 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 2 2021, 09:18 AM
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The S&P 500, one of the most widely followed US stock indices, closed the week within a whisker of record highs the index has consistently found support at its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a strong, healthy uptrend. That said, the RSI indicator is showing a bearish divergence, forming lower highs at each of the last three price peaks; this divergence signals waning buying pressure and elevated odds of a near-term top, especially if this week’s earnings report come in soft or the highly-anticipated US infrastructure bill encounters a hiccup.

Regardless, traders are likely to buy any short-term dips in the index unless and until support at the rising 50-day EMA is conclusively broken.

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SPX STILL BULLISH. bet for the upside, but with the stops little tighter .

as for ASX200 cash
think it will have a battle at 7400, there will be no surprise to me that bulls win the battle. imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 29 2021, 12:01 AM
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The NDX, XLK, IWF and OEF made new highs after last week’s bounce back, but their respective 14-Day RSI indicators did NOT. Those are clear negative divergences.

This isn’t a huge surprise given how extended the momentum indicators had gotten through the middle of July: each RSI reading hit the mid-70s. At some point the pace just has to slow. That may have begun to happen again now.
Best case, this just gives the NDX (and others) now time to consolidate, regroup and construct fresh bullish formations. Worst case, a bigger drawdown could materialize. We’ll see it in the pattern work over the next few days and weeks.

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big tech name looks ok!"! so as SPX , plenty peoples out there try to "buy the dipper" these days!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 28 2021, 09:19 AM
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The ASX 200 rose to a record high overnight to finally see it break out of its 1-month range, in line with its bullish trend. However, futures point to a soft open around 7400 and its prior record high, which could prove to be a pivotal level this session.
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asx200 looks firmly in the uptrend.....

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 28 2021, 04:58 AM
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The SPX logged its fifth straight advance on Monday, which has arrived within a month of the seven-day advance from 6/24 – 7/2.
There have been various “clusters” of five-day winning streaks since 2009.



Years in which the SPX had clusters of five-day winning streaks: 2021, 2020, 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009



Years in which clusters of five-day winning streaks did NOT occur: 2018, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011

In other words, MULTIPLE long winning streaks only occurred in years that the SPX experienced long periods of uptrending price action. The more volatile years had trouble establishing consistent demand, thus, long winning streaks rarely appeared.
Post March’20, it’s safe to say that the index has been in an uptrend once again. And while we know it won’t persist like this forever, clusters of five-day winning streaks have not led to immediate market crashes since the 2009 market lows.
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early birds
post Posted: Jul 26 2021, 11:50 PM
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34% of the SPX and 38% of the NDX are reporting over the next five days, with many of these components being held by both indices – 33 in total.



2

The focus will be on those high profiled shared names. The reason is obvious – those 33 largely have been responsible for the extension of the Large Cap Growth space and its clear relative strength over the last few months. Clearly, the reactions to earnings will tell the story this week, with the obvious question being how much of a “good number’ is already priced in for many of the biggest names.



3
The NDX just logged its ninth weekly advance in the last 10 weeks, which prompted overbought readings in both its 14-Day AND Weekly RSI indicators as of Friday’s close.



4
27% of the NDX’s stocks now above their Upper Bollinger Bands (UBB), as well, the highest % since early April. The number got even higher over the last year and a half a few times, but the NDX, itself, was lower in the near future each time. This suggests that the short-term risk-reward scenario is challenging again now.

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SPX keeps going, so as whole US market. so bullish from chart point of view!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 22 2021, 11:47 PM
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Three days into the week… and we’ve seen a 1% decline, a 1% gain, a bearish pattern triggered, a bearish pattern negated, a bullish pattern threatened, the 50 Day MA successfully tested and a key uptrend line respected.



2

Indicator-wise, the 14-Day RSI held in the low 40s again. And while the odds suggest an eventual return to overbought territory at some point, if the same pace is repeated from earlier this year, that may take a bit longer to play out.



3
The Williams %R indicator, however, gets pushed around with more ease on big moves. And that’s nearly back to overbought already. This may mean things could slow down again over the short-term, too



4
From a pattern perspective, it was close, but the most recent breakout held again. The 4,460-target now is just 2.3% away.



5

There were a number of marginal head fakes in March, May and June before those patterns worked.

If the action repeats what we’ve seen over the last few months, another trustworthy breakout may take some time to materialize.



6

So far, the back and forth price action has continued to fit into the YTD upward sloping channel. That, too, was threatened on Monday but never gave way.



7

If/when the SPX does make new highs again, we’d like to see the Cumulative Adv-Dec Line breakout, too, at relatively the same time. The last two days have helped, which was especially important after last week’s 70% negative reading and this Monday’s 15% day.

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so. SPX gonna targeting 4600ish!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 22 2021, 08:45 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jul 21 2021, 05:58 AM

market snap back from it's 50 day's ma

buy the dips still work, until it is not!! blush.gif
seems all time high for SPX [ target of 4600ish] more likely.

so as asx200. looks gonna over come 7400ish in near term!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 21 2021, 05:58 AM
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As we know, the SPX spun at its 50-Day MA yesterday, but when the index has dropped back to (or even through) the line over the last year and change, it often tested the moving average AGAIN soon thereafter.
NO pullback (not even last September’s 10% correction) has shaken the SPX loose from its uptrend just yet. And a major reason for this is that bearish chart patterns have failed to play out. There is another chance to change this now, as yesterday’s early break below the 4,290 zone triggered the latest bearish pattern (target 4,185).
The SPX’s 14-Day RSI finished at 43.7, which is near the lower part of its range since April, 2020. The SPX got close to the Lower Bollinger Band discussed yesterday, as well.
SPX: 28% stocks > 20 Day MAs: This is near the lower end of the range, but still is not extreme. The % got lower this past June and January and a handful of times last year, too.
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SPX tested it's 50 day's ma and bounced right back up -----AGAIN !! I CAN see shorts on the run!! [include me]
but the one day sell off that shake the "bulls" i reckon!!


as for asx200, . stay aside , until things clearer......

 
 


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