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TESLA, The Ambitions of Musk
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 19 2019, 06:55 AM
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Musk a little less bullish??

QUOTE
The Elon Musk who announced Tesla Inc. job cuts sounded a lot less bullish than the Musk investors have read or heard from lately.


Elon MuskPhotographer: Robyn Beck/Pool via Bloomberg
The chief executive officer warned “the road ahead is very difficult” and said in a blog post early Friday that the company had no choice but to reduce headcount by about 7 percent. He prefaced his statement that Tesla may make a “tiny” profit in the first quarter with the word “hopefully” and said it could be achieved “with great difficulty” and “some luck.”
he comments sent Tesla shares plunging as much as 11 percent, the biggest intraday drop since the Securities and Exchange Commission sued him in September over his tweets about taking the company private.

Here are some of the more-positive statements Musk has made since last fall about Tesla’s earnings prospects:

3Q earnings shareholder letter (Oct. 24)
“Our earnings profile has flipped dramatically. Sufficient Model 3 profitability was critical to make our business sustainable -- something many argued would be impossible to achieve.”

3Q earnings call (Oct. 24)
“We expect to again have positive net income and cash flow in Q4. And I believe our aspirations I think will be for all quarters going forward.”

“I think we can actually be positive cash flow for all quarters going forward, leaving aside quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment; for example, in Q1 next year. But I think, even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter.”

2Q earnings call (Aug. 1)
“I really want to emphasize our goal is to be profitable and cash-flow positive for every quarter, going forward.”

“I feel comfortable achieving a GAAP income positive and cash flow positive quarter every quarter from here on out. That’s a -- there may be occasional quarters, where we pay back a big loan or something, where there may be just because we paid back a big loan. But absent that, it would be cash flow positive.”


TESLA WHIPLASH

The less than enthusiastic response he received for his "thought bubble" re spending a billion bucks to bore a 40 km tunnel under the blue mountains is perhaps a further indication that people are starting to look a little more critically at the wunderkid.
Mick



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blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 16 2019, 12:09 PM
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Volkswagen to drag Tesla, making EVs in Tennessee
extract
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Watch out Elon Musk, Herbert Diess is pulling up beside you at the light.

Most North Americans have never heard of Volkswagen’s CEO, but he may be getting more face time after announcing on Monday that his company is planning on building an electric vehicle in the United States.

Germany’s Volkswagen said it will invest $800 million to construct a new electric vehicle – likely an SUV - at its plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

The announcement is part of a greater strategy to become the most profitable manufacturer of electric vehicles (EVs). In December Volkswagen said it will spend $34 billion on “e-mobility initiatives” including electric and self-driving vehicles, and $57 billion on battery procurement, for an eye-popping total of $91 billion. That includes 50 battery-electric and 30 hybrid-electric models by 2030, including 12 electric models for Audi. It plans to eventually offer electric version of all 300 of its models, among the 12 brands it owns.

Volkswagen is also holding exploratory talks with Ford about cooperating to develop self-driving and electric vehicles, possibly by using Volkswagen’s MEB EV platform.

Reuters reported that VW will sell 150,000 EVs by 2020 and 1 million by 2025. But Diess reportedly told German car magazine Automobilwoche that Volkswagen has acquired the batteries to produce 50 million electric vehicles!

To put that in context, last October sales of electric vehicles in the United States reached 1 million - versus around 4 million worldwide.


read more - http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2019/...n-Tennessee.htm





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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 12 2019, 12:06 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 3 2019, 03:13 PM

In China, Elon Musk Felt the Love That Was Missing at Home
By Angus Whitley
January 11, 2019, 6:12 PM GMT+11 Updated on January 11, 2019, 9:10 PM GMT+11
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

The China "love" Musk is feeling wouldn't have anything to do with Chinese taxes/subsidies by any chance biggrin.gif



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 03:13 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 3 2019, 02:34 PM

Interesting article from Ahead of the Herd re taxes/subsidies, etc

QUOTE
At the Beijing Auto Show this year, 7 out of 10 “new energy vehicles” (NEVs) on display were by Chinese automakers. While EVs only accounted for 17% of the 1,022 models showcased, 124 of the 174 NEVs were made by domestic (Chinese) manufacturers. New energy vehicles in China refers to both battery-operated vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

The numbers are proof of the trend towards electrification of transportation in China, whereas in North America, we’re being left behind choking on diesel and gasoline fumes. Here are some more startling stats. In 2017 less than 200,000 EVs were sold in the US, versus 777,000 in China. That’s up 53% in China compared to 2016, and down 13% in the US. EVs are still a minuscule part of the massive US auto industry, accounting for just 1.2% of the 17 million vehicles sold last year. (Numbers courtesy of the South China Morning Post).

There are a few reasons why EVs have achieved so much greater market penetration in China versus the United States. The first, unsurprisingly, is cost. The most popular range of EVs sold in China can be purchased for between USD$11,500 and $14,500 - around the cost of a used Subaru in North America. Most EVs for sale in China are produced domestically, which keeps costs down. The price tag is also considerably less than a North American model due to subsidies. The Chinese government - which wants EVs to account for 12% of all sales by 2020 - offers buyers a subsidy of up to 100,000 yuan per unit, or nearly USD$16,000. The subsidy increases, the longer the EV’s range.

US News ranked the 9 cheapest electric cars in the United States, and found the least expensive model was the 2017 Smart Electric Drive, at $23,800 before tax credits. Still a considerable sum for the average wage earner. If you want to go high-end, the 2018 Tesla S can be mortgaged for between $74,500 and $135,000+.

The second reason is infrastructure. In the US they have 48,000 charging outlets with most, 15,000, in California. China has 213,903, according to the Environmental and Energy Study Institute. The Chinese government plans to build 120,000 public charging stations by 2020.

The last reason is government support. Tax credits in the US range from $2,500 to $7,500 depending on battery capacity. While the US is using tax credits, tax exemptions and rebates to encourage EV buying (and the Trump administration wants to discontinue most), in China the subsidies are much more aggressive. Since 2014, Chinese EV buyers haven’t had to pay any tax. And local governments are supportive. Beijing and Shenzhen for example match the subsidy amount provided by the central government. The Zuzhou municipal government partnered with Singulato Motor to establish a 10 billion yuan (about USD$1.5B) fund for investing in EV research, according to the South China Morning Post.

All of this has resulted in China being the undisputed leader in the electric-vehicle market. The country currently accounts for half of the world’s EV production and sales.


http://aheadoftheherd.com/N

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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 02:34 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 3 2019, 08:36 AM

And how many experts/analysts/companies involved in battery raw materials are relying on/spruiking inflated (by subsidies) EV sales growth figures. Have been cautioning this for some time.





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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 3 2019, 08:36 AM
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QUOTE
Tesla reported Model 3 sedan deliveries that missed Wall Street’s estimates and said it would cut prices on all its vehicles, news that drove shares of the electric car maker down more than 8 per cent.

Tesla cut prices by $US2,000, moving the starting cost of the Model 3 -- the vehicle it is banking on to reach the mass market -- to $US44,000. The move, in part, was to make up for the elimination of federal tax incentives for Tesla vehicles that begin to phase out this year, it said.

The company has been working toward offering the Model 3 compact sedan at $US35,000, part of chief executive Elon Musk’s bet Tesla can make a more affordable vehicle as part of his vision for broader adoption of electric vehicles in the auto industry.

The car maker said total deliveries, fuelled by increased production and sales of the Model 3 sedan, more than tripled to 90,700 in the fourth quarter, from 29,870 a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, though, had expected total deliveries, including the more pricey Model S large sedan and Model X sport-utility vehicle, of 92,000 vehicles...
- business models incorporating subsidies often come unstuck.



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"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2018, 02:43 PM
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Not what some of our politician are saying, but then rolleyes.gif
QUOTE
South Australia's big battery has outperformed expectations in its first year of operation, saving almost $40 million in grid stabilisation costs, helping prevent blackouts, and generally restoring confidence in energy supply in the state, according to project backer Neoen.

The 100 megawatt Hornsdale battery, the idea for which sparked from a famed Twitter exchange between tech billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Tesla's Elon Musk, has had a huge impact in reducing prices in the grid stabilisation market, known as the frequency control and ancillary services (FCAS) market, according to an independent report released on Tuesday by engineering and advisory firm Aurecon.

Aurecon's analysis showed that the sharp spikes in FCAS prices during bottlenecks on the network seen in 2016 and 2017 were markedly absent in 2018 despite similar instances of grid constraints, while prices overall were about 75 per cent lower on average.

https://www.afr.com/business/energy/solar-e...up.com/advisory



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 27 2018, 01:55 PM
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Tesla appears to be in trouble again - according to the WSJ/zerohedge - just when the market was delighted/stunned by their Q3 results

FBI Is Investigating If Tesla Misstated Info About Model 3 Production
QUOTE
While we already knew that a second SEC investigation was taking place in relation to Tesla's Model 3 production, the Wall Street Journal dropped a bombshell this afternoon stating that a DOJ investigation into Model 3 production numbers was also not only was taking place, but was also intensifying.

Tesla shares quickly dropped almost $25 off highs on the news before bouncing after releasing its own response, stating it has only received a "voluntary request for documents" and not a subpoena:

According to the Wall Street Journal, the FBI is examining whether Tesla misstated information about production of its Model 3 dating back to early 2017. Action in the criminal investigation is reported to have intensified since Musk settled with the SEC last week.

The Journal also reports that the FBI has contacted former Tesla employees for testimony in the criminal case. Many former employees have received subpoenas and have been interviewed by the FBI. The investigation is said to focus on the following timeline:

In February 2017, after reporting fourth-quarter 2016 results, Tesla laid out an aggressive production plan to bring out the Model 3, with plans to ramp up to 5,000 vehicles a week in the fourth quarter. On a conference call that month with analysts, Mr. Musk said he was pushing suppliers to be ready for a weekly run rate of 1,000 vehicles in July to 2,000 in August and 4,000 in September.

A few months later in July, Mr. Musk sounded confident that Tesla would be producing 20,000 Model 3s a month in December 2017, in line with his previous pledge of having 5,000 vehicles a week by year’s end. “Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec,” he tweeted on July 2, 2017, days before the first Model 3 rolled off the production line.

In the early weeks of production, the company’s body shop, where the skeleton of the cars would take shape, wasn’t fully functional, according to an October 2017 article in The Wall Street Journal. Tesla was still hand-building parts of the Model 3s, and the body shop wasn’t fully installed until September, according to people quoted in the article that were familiar with the situation.

Tesla ended up producing 2,700 Model 3s for all of 2017, and 793 in the last week of 2017

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-26/f...el-3-production
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-faces-de...age=1&pos=1



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 24 2018, 02:43 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Oct 24 2018, 02:05 PM

No, not all hot air - they've been working on it for some time - for memory they mentioned it about a year ago and have been doing their R&D from their technology center located in the UK.

Funding wouldn't be an issue either.

Singapore is an attractive place to do business, thanks to low tax rates there - just ask BHP & RIO.

I think this one could get off the ground - unlike some others.

The more competition the merrier smile.gif





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
triage
post Posted: Oct 24 2018, 02:05 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 24 2018, 09:50 AM

According to this article there are plans for a new competitor to Tesla to begin constructing electric cars in Singapore. I'm not sure whether this story is all hot air or whether the new venture actually has a chance of cleaning up...

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45950377








(sorry, rolleyes.gif )



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"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

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