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PROPERTY
early birds
post Posted: Mar 29 2017, 06:15 PM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Mar 29 2017, 01:08 PM

see my true colour?? cool.gif don't you worry

'chinks", "chinaman" eg even been called worse funny part is when visit china, Friend, family call me "aussie pumpkin' eg.
you know what?? i don't gives a f$%^& anymore
not like you, i don't judge people by their colours, races , instead i judge people by their behaviour, their mind eg..
sorry to other readers, i dragged into this B S topic .

back to property
didn't know Fed, and most other central banks print money day and night none stops TILL NOW after GFC.
if i know that i'd leverage to my throat put it all on the housing market---like some other did. i'd be really rich by now since GFC.
i had wrong analysis about how much and how deep Govt willing to go ............and have to hang my head eat the humble pie weirdsmiley.gif

however i read some figures -----about over 100k of apartment gonna hit sydney market this year alone, we can see the massive supply is coming
the situation now is
1 chinese Govt is trying really hard to control their "[capital out flow" that means money will really hard flow out from there
2, local govt, gonna put special tax on empty apartment----that will put huge pressure on rental market
3, big banks is raising rate without RBA move


people can do the math i guess!!



 
bg99
post Posted: Mar 29 2017, 01:08 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 28 2017, 06:02 PM

I see your true colour... shining through

 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 28 2017, 06:02 PM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Mar 28 2017, 02:38 PM

and reduce population growth is other key
=================

don't flattering yourself because you have "white skins". i've been here longer enough to see so many trashs had same colour as you. cool.gif

you seems misinformed
don't you know chinese Govt try hard to control "capital flight"?? that means a lot less money will flow in from there start from now.

5 million is high enough bar for "investment immigrants", i guess whoever can afford 5 mil to invest here that would be good for aussies.
all Tbull need to do is to cut down other type of immigration, and reduce support for other population growth, and let them build more apartments..



 
bg99
post Posted: Mar 28 2017, 02:38 PM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Mar 25 2017, 10:41 AM

I doubt that will work, it's all about scale.... the scale of the Chinese population and economy dwarfs Australias..... the overcrowding in China will just be transferred to here..... having lots of money or assets based here will get you into the country. I dont care where you come from and arent about to turn this into another "racist" discussion..... but the reality is I dont want to see our cities turned into the overgrown smog bound cities that abound in China. Prices will keep going up whilst the demand increases..... the markets will never stay oversupplied for long with a world pop of 7bn

 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 25 2017, 10:41 AM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Mar 25 2017, 08:57 AM

the children of Australia wont stand a chance of owning homes against the China flood without due protection.
===============

there is a really simple solution,
lower the barrier for all the develops, from china, america, brits whatever. once you have big over supply then we can have 20 years plus housing market downturn [like what Japs did till now}
and reduce population growth is other key
if govt do that two things, then sure we will have big crash. that will solve the affordability issue.
but do we have the will to bear the big and long duration of economic down turn??? i much doubt!! cool.gif
if Tbull smart enough, he should use our AAA rating to issue as much as long bond {10--30 years} as he can , because we need a lot more of infrastructure up grade to keep up that much of new apartment been built. that will cushing the economic downturn caused by housing market crash.
if we have housing market crash, the one who will be hurt most is developers ---in this case , most of them are chinese. and once they build things here they can't move it out , they just have to sell it cheeper and see their wealth creation dreams down the pips . our kids can have olenty cheep house to buy.

ps. don't have anything against chinese {i'm from shanghai myself}. just don't like to see these greedy action to our housing market. hope this Gpvt. is smart enough to give them a good listen

EB



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bg99
post Posted: Mar 25 2017, 08:57 AM
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Referring to the article below I can only conclude that this country is being run by dumb and dumber or scheist and scheister

How does cracking down on investor loans here stop foreign buyers of Australian property, they dont fund their purchases from here. Either Scott Morrison is as thick as two planks or
he is quite happy to keep letting the country being taken over. Comments from TBull last night in the media strongly suggest the latter, in fact he was encouraging it. The govt will sell all to the highest bidder. Sometimes Trump looks smart compared to our scheisters, the children of Australia wont stand a chance of owning homes against the China flood without due protection.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/...324-gv5sx1.html





 


nipper
post Posted: Mar 24 2017, 08:54 AM
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coming to a locality near you

https://onbeyondinvesting.com/blogs/blog/i-...u-didnt-have-to
QUOTE
I attended the top of the Canadian Housing Market, so you didn't have to

Originally, I thought this would be a bit of a joke. There were billboards in all the Toronto subway cars advertising the Canadian Real Estate Wealth Expo - learn how to become a millionaire. I thought this was so ridiculous, it may be fun. What better way to experience the top of the housing market than watching Tony Robbins and Pitbull along with a bunch of US real estate professionals explain how Toronto real estate is the path to riches....

the promotions or the location? ... probably both!

Meantime, the regulators are blaming the banks, while the unregulated market, the shadow banking, is where the pain will come. Canadians call it second lien, here its "securitised" residential mortgages bundled up and sold to yield chasing risk-unaware 'investors'





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Mar 6 2017, 08:32 PM
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Soon to IPO - comsec flogging them

Investments exposed to urban renewal regeneration – URB is the only listed invested company in Australia investing solely in Equity Assets and Direct Property Assets exposed to urban renewal and regeneration;

Alternative asset class – URB’s unique focus on urban renewal and regeneration investments provide an opportunity for diversification and growth of an investor’s portfolio;

1. Equity investments – access to investments within the Urban Renewal Universe which is made up of 89 stocks from ASX All Ordinaries Index of 500 stocks and has a combined market capitalisation of almost $350 billion. URB’s Equity Portfolio will seek to complement more mainstream equity portfolios as URB does not intend to hold banking or resource stocks;

2. Direct Property Seed Assets – If the Offer is successful, URB will acquire a 49.9% interest in three Direct Property Seed Assets which have a value of approximately $59 million. The Direct Property Seed Assets are located in New South Wales in Kingsgrove, Prestons and Penrith. URB considers that all Direct Property Seed Assets have potential for valuation uplift through income and capital growth; and

3. Co-Investment Agreement – through the Co-Investment Agreement, URB will have the right to co-invest, on an equal basis with Soul Pattinson, in all Direct Property Assets originated by PSRE that are presented to Soul Pattinson. Direct property investments will therefore be made alongside Soul Pattinson, one of Australia’s oldest and most respected investment houses.

Note'; a listed invested company is not a LIC. Hoping to raise $300 million, with 1:1 options taking to possible 600m down the track

,.... From the Australian: " Contact Asset Management, owned by Soul Pattinson and ­executives Tom Millner and Will Culbert, will manage URB Investments.

Contact now manages the $1 billion BKI Investments portfolio and the new company will co-­invest with Soul Pattinson in all direct property opportunities originated by the firm’s well-­credentialed real estate advisory division, Pitt Street Real Estate Partners.

Mr Milner said that the company was an “alternative asset class” that differed from an A-REIT sector or a property developer as it also offered liquidity through the share portfolio.

The group is being pitched to investors looking to gain alternative exposure to unlisted properties likely to benefit from a change in use, and is aiming to appeal to self-managed super funds. The company wants to buy more properties in the $10m to $40m range that could be converted into alternative uses.

Mr Culbert said the company was targeting properties in a range “which is too expensive for individual investors but too small for big institutions”. ..."



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 6 2016, 05:17 PM
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The number of cranes in Australian cities jumped 20 per cent at the end of March as residential construction activity boomed across the eastern seaboard.

Sydney alone accounted for two-thirds of the 114 new cranes that rose across Australian skylines from six months earlier, quantity surveying firm Rider Levett Bucknall's latest crane index shows.

The national total of 647 cranes shows the construction industry's strong appetite for residential housing, which increased as high-rising housing projects grew to 81 per cent of the total from 79 per cent at time of the last count, at the end of September.

Commercial construction, the second-largest sector, accounted for just 45 cranes, three fewer than six months earlier.



Crane count by city (number)

"We are disproportionately weighted towards the high-rise residential... so the market gravitates towards it without necessarily thinking what's next," said RLB director of research & development Stephen Ballesty. "The value of the crane index is it puts a number on how high that proportion is."



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
sabretoothed
post Posted: Oct 9 2005, 11:17 AM
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Game over the docklands?


All that glisters is not sold
October 8, 2005

www.theage.com.au


Melbourne
Photo: John Donegan

Inner-city high-rise apartments have hit buyers in the hip pocket. Cameron Houston and Aileen Keenan report.

MELBOURNE restaurateur Jimmy Siu was one of hundreds to queue at a glitzy Docklands showroom in March 2002 as a team of sales staff worked the room. Tower Five was to be the crowning glory of the Yarra's Edge development and Mr Siu said he was assured the building would be sheathed in shimmering gold; a traditional symbol of prosperity and positive feng shui in Chinese culture. In just four days, listed developer Mirvac sold more than $140 million worth of off-the-plan apartments in Tower Five, including two apartments to Mr Siu for $3.5 million.

More than three years later Tower Five has lost some of its sparkle, with almost 30 apartments yet to settle, amid claims of misleading and deceptive conduct by Mirvac's sales staff.

"I showed him my gold watch and the salesman said that was the colour of the tower I would be living in," Mr Siu said. "It's not even close to gold or bronze, it's more shitty brown."

While investors and developers quibble over the colour of gold, Melbourne's CBD apartment towers have become the public face of the nation's overheated property market, with everyone from the Reserve Bank of Australia to the federal Treasurer taking aim.

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In December 2003, RBA governor Ian Macfarlane said some inner-city apartments in Sydney and Melbourne had fallen in value by 40 per cent, and expressed concerns for over-leveraged investors. RBA consultant and Residex founder John Edwards went further and described the Docklands buildings as "the ghettos of the future".

Yet inner-city apartments represent just 1.3 per cent of Melbourne's total housing stock, while the much-maligned Docklands precinct accounts for only 0.2 per cent of the market.

Between 1999 and 2002, Melbourne's burgeoning high-rise market seemed invincible, with an annual average of 3850 off-the-plan sales. Developers invested billions on the basis of demographic forecasts that predicted a torrent of young professionals and ageing baby boomers would swap their traditional suburban plots for an apartment in the sky.

Swept up in the gold rush, some investors staked their children's inheritance on Melbourne's mushrooming skyline, many using deposit bonds to leverage themselves to the hilt.

The Age commissioned research from property analyst Cityscope on the CBD, Southbank and St Kilda-Queens Road precincts, and it provides a comprehensive profile of the state of the market.

With just 96 off-the-plan apartments now on offer in the CBD, the downturn has been swift and painful for many investors, many of whom have been forced to refinance and brace for some lean times ahead.

Slater & Gordon partner Lisa Nichols is representing 12 Asian buyers in Tower Five, including Mr Siu, and says their class action against Mirvac is definitely not about money.

"They (Mirvac Group) can either rescind the contracts or make the building gold," Ms Nichols said.

But would apartment buyers be looking to slide out of contracts if the underlying value of their properties had increased over the past three years? Were they duped by silver-tongued sales staff who made promises the market could not deliver on? Or were they simply victims of their own poor investment decisions?

Mirvac has adopted a hard line and has stoutly refused to allow buyers off the hook. Victorian state manager Brett Draffen says the company will pursue specific performance from every buyer who can afford to settle.

"We'll vigorously defend these matters and we're determined to ensure that all buyers fulfil their contractual obligations," Mr Draffen said. He also said independent valuations by two firms had come in "at or about" the original purchase price, but conceded that the market had shifted since the halcyon days of 2002.

Determining the exact value of Docklands apartments is difficult due to the paucity of sales data, but analysts estimate apartments bought off-the-plan at the height of the boom had fallen by up to 20 per cent by settlement.

Charter Keck Cramer research manager Robert Papaleo says the falls need to be placed in context. In the firm's biannual State of the Market Report, Mr Papaleo says the declines followed an initial blip that was created by unbridled demand in an undersupplied and immature market.

Critical of the doomsday predictions, Mr Papaleo describes the current adjustments as an orderly correction rather than the calamitous collapse predicted by several pundits.

The Cityscope data reveals that buyers who chose their rooms with a view wisely profited, but overall, Melbourne's nascent CBD apartment market has proven to be a mirage for many investors.

Analysis of 9655 apartment sales in 170 inner-city developments reveals an average median return of 3.39 per cent — hardly stellar, but well short of the "blood on the streets" forecasts of BIS Shrapnel in 2003.

The Star Apartments project in Flagstaff Lane, West Melbourne, was the standout performer with a median annualised return of 17.63 per cent, while investors in Southbank's Flinders Wharf apartments have lost 5.72 per cent on an annualised basis.

Fifty-three developments achieved median returns of less than 2 per cent.

The St Kilda Road-Queens Road area has done best, with a median annualised return of 4.51 per cent, with nine developments ranking in the top 15 for annualised returns.

The top five annualised median returns in the area were achieved by Robsart in St Kilda Road (11.06 per cent), Mode Apartments in Queens Road (10.62 per cent), The Domain in Albert Road (9.83 per cent), Lancaster House in Queens Road (9.70 per cent) and Queenscourt in St Kilda Road (8.90 per cent).

Apartment projects in Melbourne's CBD area have yielded an annualised median return of 3.38 per cent and the CBD had six developments in the top 15.

The overall annualised median return for Southbank developments is substantially lower at 2.54 per cent. The precinct's leading development is The Melburnian, which achieved a median annual return of 6.4 per cent.

However, the precinct is likely to receive a fillip from the high-profile Eureka Tower and Freshwater Place developments aimed at owner-occupiers.

But what happens now as the market deals with the aftermath of a debt-financed binge?

Macquarie Bank's head of property research, Rod Cornish, says it will be about four years before the market awakes from its torpor, although there are already signs of resilience at the top end.

Mr Cornish says Melbourne's inner-city apartment market had been the worst affected nationally, but is already over the worst of the pain, despite a record 3090 units settling this year.

Melbourne's residential property market reached its nadir last year, and apartments are now benefiting from renewed confidence in the broader housing market.

But Mr Cornish has issued an important caveat: generic investment stock, with few owner-occupiers in the market, could experience further declines in value.

Mr Papaleo says purchaser sentiment has progressively improved over the past year and a hiatus of new supply in 2007-08 will allow the overhang of new stock to be absorbed and create demand for the next construction cycle.

In June this year there were 1605 unsold apartments, the lowest stock surplus since the second half of 2001.

Several Docklands developers saw the writing on the wall and have already modified or shelved development plans.

Lend Lease cancelled its $50 million Park Terrace project at Victoria Harbour, while ING Real Estate's Waterfront City has made a "concerted shift away from high-rise development in favour of an East Melbourne-meets-the-water approach", according to managing director Mark Broomfield.

Mr Papaleo estimates there will be 20,000 contemporary inner-city apartments by the end of 2005 and this will increase to 22,500 by end of next year, with 23,500 by 2008.

But speculators hungry for another bull run should take a cold shower, according to Mr Papaleo.

He says the market is unlikely to experience similar rates of growth, as there is now a large and varied supply of apartments that will absorb sudden demand spikes.

Exactly when prices begin to rise will be determined by the demand for high-rise living and subsequent upward pressure on rents. Property analysts point to an upswing in rents by next year, but they are unlikely to substantially offset low investment yields.

Mr Cornish says high building costs have helped to underpin the value of new apartments, and generally fall at the end of a construction cycle.

He says construction costs have not fallen, but the rate at which they are increasing has eased and, with demand for construction in the commercial property sector strong, he does not expect building costs to decrease substantially.

Developer Morry Schwartz was less sanguine regarding Victoria's construction costs.

"I'll tell you one thing, they're (building costs) not going to go backwards and the market would need to stage a significant rally before further apartment towers appear on the Melbourne skyline," Mr Schwartz said.

He says resales in his Watergate development are still happening, but prices are coming back, while the rental market has improved dramatically, with almost full occupancy and rents rising by up to 10 per cent over the past year.

But Docklands developers continue to lament that the $8 billion precinct has become yet another victim of the dreaded tall poppy syndrome.

While specific warnings from the Treasurer and RBA governor were intended to quell investment demand, MAB Corporation's general manager of development, Rod McDonald, says their comments are unreasonable and misguided.

"When you go over the Bolte Bridge, the Docklands is highly visible, which made us an easy target," Mr McDonald said.

Unperturbed by the gloom, MAB Corporation is close to completing its fifth residential building, Conder Tower, which brings the total number of apartments in their New Quay development to almost 1000.

Mr McDonald says most of their apartments have recorded double-digit growth since coming on line, while vacancy rates have been below 2 per cent for the past 18 months.

"Only a handful of apartments have fallen in value and that's usually where there's been a forced sale, but the idea there was going to be this hard landing with thousands of people in distress has not eventuated at all," Mr McDonald said.

While a widespread collapse seems to have been averted, it remains to be seen whether Melbourne's sparkling skyline will once regain its lustre with investors.





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I confirm that am not a licensed investment adviser , or have any formal training, to give investment advice. Therefore you must seek professional advice. I may hold this stock. Jesse Livermore is my Hero. Australia is the next Iceland!
 
 


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