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mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I have lived in the tropics both here in OZ and in the Pacific for a few years of my working life, and been unfortunate enough to have been through three cyclones of varying intensity over the years.
Last year, This Article from ABC news made me sit up and take notice.
QUOTE
Cyclones have been notoriously hard to predict over decades, but a new scientific model could prove to be a circuit-breaker, particularly in the cyclone-battered Pacific.
Cyclone modelling has traditionally been difficult due to complex interactions between the sea and atmosphere
A new Australia-New Zealand forecast model now synthesizes these interactions simultaneously
This could strengthen the Pacific's preparedness for its annual cyclone season
The University of Newcastle, in collaboration with New Zealand's National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, has released a new predictive tool call Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP), which can forecast cyclones up to four months in advance.

Current modelling only produces forecasts one month in advance, while actual cyclone paths may not necessarily follow predicted paths.


At the time of reading, I was a little sceptical, especially the last bit about modelling can only produce forecasts one month in advance. The reason for my scepticism was that I cannot recall the BOM predicting any cyclones a month in advance, it was highly unusual to get even a weeks notice
much less a month. I thought that four months was pushing it up hill a bit.

We have had two cyclones this season , neither was predicted to occur within a week of their forming. Indeed in the case of tropical cyclone Kimi, it seemed to pop up out of nowhere with no warning. There was no mention of a tropical low even forming. The monsoon trough hanging over northern Australia has a good chance of producing another one next week of the northern coast of WA. But not a word from these new found models.

Once again, the press releases seem to be of more import than the actual science.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Problem is, who do you replace him with?
No obvious choice.
As great a batsmen as he is, I don't think Smith was ever a great captain, he was just too wrapped up in his own game, certainly not in the mould of Tubby Taylor or Steve Waugh.
There is no one else demanding the role (at least not among current players).
test players perhaps need to be given time in the shield ranks in positions of responsibility as part of a breeding ground.
But test players hardly ever play shield cricket these days.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Elektrek

QUOTE
Electrek has learned from sources familiar with the matter that Tesla has instructed employees to sell all Model S and Model X inventory in stores across all markets.

Tesla aims to have absolutely no Model S or Model X in inventory by the end of the month.

It should be achievable since Tesla hasn’t produced new Model S and Model X vehicles in almost a month due to a production shutdown of the lines for its flagship electric sedan and SUV.

The move is unusual at the beginning of a new quarter and it intensifies rumors of a design refresh.Over the last few months, we have been extensively reporting on rumors of a possible Model S and Model X design refresh have been increasing lately — especially since Tesla announced that the Model S Plaid is going to require several important changes.

In December, we also reported on Tesla significantly increasing the delivery timeline and price of Model S and Model X going to Europe in March.

Furthermore, we learned that Tesla has extended the Model S/X production holiday shutdown through early January, leading some to believe that the automaker is updating the production line to produce a new version of the electric sedan.

As we previously reported, Tesla has a ‘secret project Palladium’, which included working on new production lines for Model S and Model X last year.

Back in 2018, we reported on Tesla working on a significant interior design refresh for Model S and Model X that was at the time planned for the summer of 2019.

It is worth noting that Elektrec is a generally pro tesla blog.
There may be other reasons for the above, namely that the NHTSA had asked Tesla to recall about 158,000 Model S and Model X units that could potentially suffer from failing display consoles. Tesla has already resisted the recall request, suggesting it was an over reaction. It would seem that perhaps dumping all of the Model S and X unsold vehicles is another way to wipe their hands of the problem.
It should also be noted that like then reported " Tesla working on a significant interior design refresh for Model S and Model X that was at the time planned for the summer of 2019" being already nearly two years late, the electric semi (truck) and the roadster that were promised just prior to that announcement is over two years late. Its all vapourware.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

There is a tropical low brewing in WA just to the NW of Dampier.
Might well be a Cyclone by end of next week.
Even if it does not form, likely the Iron ore shipping will be suspended for a while as there will still likely to be some servere marine warnings.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 16 2021, 06:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I am happy to give you ten to one.
But I need to see the colour of ya money first.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 16 2021, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Nobody knows whats going happen, despite all their credentials.
If there are enough pundits being quoted, someone, somewhere will get it right, but it will be a complete fluke.
History is great teacher, and we could get an inkling of what might happen if we look at past events.
But there are a couple of caveats.
Firstly history is told by the victor, and facts or interpretation of events can be distorted to produce varying "outcomes".
This is especially true of the inability of participants toi understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Secondly, the dreaded phrase "this time its different" just keeps popping up.
Society is different today, we have the 24 hour news cycle, the WWW and improved communications means that very little gets hidden away, its all out there. It is so difficult for a person or group to remain hidden away from the world, we are all exposed.
Attitudes have changed, we are more global than local.
But that does not change fundamental rules on the velocity of money, on the distorting effects of greed and corruption, or the glacial pace at which those in charge react to events.
But apart from that, everything is fine.
Take a positive view - namely no matter what happens, there will be good people who survive and prosper and the world WILL keep on turning.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 05:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The injection of cash into the US economy shows no abatement.
Biden's proposed 1.9 TRILLION package brings the total amount of cash support to over 5.2TRILLION.
Moody's rating agency , the same one that downgraded Victoria's credit rating to AA- a few months ago, sees this latest splurge as a good thing.
From sharescene's own research pages HERE


QUOTE
Credit rating group, Moody’s has given an upbeat and thumbs up approval for the Biden package.

In analysis released before the speech was delivered – but obviously based on an extensive briefing, Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi reckoned it will boost US growth this year to 5% or better, and the same in 2022.

“This (the Biden package) would bring total support since the pandemic hit to $US5.2 trillion, equal to an astounding 25% of GDP—approximately three times the fiscal support during the financial crisis, and substantially more than provided by any other country in the world. (Japan is second and Australia is third in the ranking of size of stimulus to GDP)

“With this additional boost, real GDP should be robust at just over 5% this year and the same next, bringing the economy back to full employment by early 2023.”

He sees economic growth in the current first quarter of 2021 at 4%, rising to more than 5% for the year by year’s end.

“That is nearly a full year sooner than we had anticipated when assuming the Republicans would maintain control of the Senate and stymie the Biden administration’s efforts for additional fiscal support,” Zandi wrote on Thursday.

He also forecast that the US would return to full employment by the end of 2022 early 2023.

“With the economy projected to achieve full employment by early 2023, we expect the Fed to begin normalizing short-term rates by fall 2023. By then, inflation should be firmly above the Fed’s 2% target and inflation expectations even higher.

“It will take approximately three years for the Fed to increase the federal funds rate target to its 2.5% long-run equilibrium rate.”

“Long-term rates will rise sooner as the Fed tapers its quantitative easing by early 2022, and bond investors anticipate a full-employment economy with higher inflation.


To paraphrase someone else, theres some heroic assumptions in that analysis.
The chances of the US returning to full employment by end of 2022, early 2023 seem more than a little optimistic.
With the latest BLS data showing 6.7%, and new jobless claims have been stuck above 700,000 for the past three months.
This compares with around 225,000 average before the virus hit.
The real unemployment rate according to shadow stats is closer to 7.3%.
the Fed in their annual report HERE has unemployment rates coming down to 5.0% in 2021. I guess if everyone got a lucrative position at the FED it might work.
But the biggest problem is that people in Government assume that once the virus is brought back to a level where no state has any restrictions, all will be well again and all those businesses will just up again.
Sorry guys, the playing field turned into a mine field.
Nobody knows how many of the closed small and medium businesses will open again,
And if people can get welfare instead of having to work, guess what will happen?
You only have to look at the huge amount of fresh produce that is not being harvested here in OZ to see the inevitable result.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 04:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

What an embarrassment.
4 out of 5 wickets to poorly judged attacking shots on the on side.
Oz batspersons have lost the art of patience in test cricket.
Mohammad Siraj in his third test.
Natarajan in his first, Washington Sundar in his first.
Shardul Thakur in his second test.
Navdeep saini has injured his groin in his 8th over of his second test, so they are a bowler down.
India already have whole teams worth of Injured players.
And Oz limps along to 5 for 218.
Imagine what might have happened had the Indian team been able to pick the missing players.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 02:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Have not seen any announcements to warrant such behaviour, but REE up 22% today.
Thats nice.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

If I hear one more politician utter the words "I make no apology for " (fill in the name of latest cluster F%$$#), I am going to tear out what little hair I have left.
Martin Foley, the Vic health Minister who replaced the last person who made no apology despite the hotel quarantine fiasco, is the latest to make no apology for not allowing Victorians back into their home state, while happy to welcome a 1000 foreigners who happen to be part of the tennis troupe that tours the world making millions.
A pox on their heads (and a few other parts of their body as well).
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

And play straight he did - straight into the hands of the man standing at square leg.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 01:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The Rich will get richer, no matter who is in charge.
They will be out with their cups looking for boondoggles to filter through their hands before clipping their bit.
Its the once profitable middle class that has been decimated , with many joining those at the bottom.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 01:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

So out I go, can't see any point in keeping them.
20% profit is fine with me.
Makes up for some other duds.
Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

QUOTE
What then is it due to?
A dollar coming up shortly.

Its been falling since the 2.50 highs of September last year.
I don't know why.
The fundamentals seem pretty good for the company, but the market is never wrong.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Another 52 week high today, and significant numbers of buyers over sellers above 10 cents.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

RMS announces it has divested the Coogee gold project to the minnow Victory mines for the addition of 321million shares in Victory.
Not sure if it is going to make much material difference to either share price, though RMS is down again today, I doubt it is due to this transaction.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 15 2021, 09:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

According to The Economist
based on the Big Mac Index, the Russian Rouble is the most undervalued currency in the world.
Based on the cost of a Big Mac, which is essentially the same thing in every country, there are only three currencies, the Swiss Franc, The Swedish Krona, and Norwegian Krona that are overvalued against the US dollar.

QUOTE
The big mac index was invented by The Economist in 1986 as a lighthearted guide to whether currencies are at their “correct” level. It is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), the notion that in the long run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalise the prices of an identical basket of goods and services (in this case, a burger) in any two countries.

Burgernomics was never intended as a precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. Yet the Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economic textbooks and the subject of dozens of academic studies. For those who take their fast food more seriously, we also calculate a gourmet version of the index.

Just as a side note, the index suggests that the AUD is 12% undervalued compared to the USD.
What more do we need to work out that the USD still has a long way to fall before some level of evenness is reached.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 09:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Yeah, so where have I heard that story before?
Oh thats right, it was the SEGWAY.
It was gonna revolutionise transport, put everything else into the shade.
None other than Bill gates endorsed it as the next big winner.
I think I recall that the company went bust last year.
As Yogi Berra once said, "making predictions is really difficult, especially predictions about the future".
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Business Insider
QUOTE
People are watching Bitcoin prices rise as some struggle to recover millions of the cryptocurrency, according to The New York Times.
Those who lost access to their Bitcoin are given 10 guesses before the content of their digital wallet is seized up and encrypted for good.
Around 20% of the existing 18.5 million Bitcoin are in stranded wallets, worth roughly $US140 billion.With Bitcoin prices increasing by over 50% since it reached its all-time high of $US20,000 last month, those locked out of their cryptocurrency wallets are becoming desperate as they calculate how much wealth they would gain if only they remembered their passwords.
Around 20% of the existing 18.5 million Bitcoin — worth a total of $US140 billion — are in stranded wallets, according to the cryptocurrency data firm Chainalysis, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Wallet Recovery Services, a firm that helps recover lost digital keys, told the Times that it received 70 requests a day from users who are trying to access their digital wallets — a number that is three times higher than it was a month ago.

In an interview with the Times, Stefan Thomas, a programmer living in San Francisco, said that his strategies to remember his password continue to fail, leaving him with only two guesses to figure out his password before being permanently locked out. His 7,002 Bitcoin is worth around $US220 million as of this week.

The password should allow him to unlock an IronKey, a small hard drive containing the private keys to a digital wallet that holds his Bitcoin.Former Facebook chief security officer Alex Stamos, tweeting about the story on Tuesday, appeared to offer to help Thomas access his wallet — for 10% of its value.

Um, for $220M in locked-up Bitcoin, you don't make 10 password guesses but take it to professionals to buy 20 IronKeys and spend six months finding a side-channel or uncapping.

I'll make it happen for 10%. Call me. https://t.co/dTumE8Cw65

— Alex Stamos (@alexstamos) January 12, 2021

Gabriel Abed is another Bitcoin owner who lost access to his Bitcoin wallet since 2011 when his laptop was reformatted, losing 800 Bitcoin that are now worth a total of $US25 million, according to the Times.With the rise and fall of Bitcoin value, hackers have been trying to access Bitcoin wallets with large amounts of Bitcoin, including a wallet containing 69,370 Bitcoin worth around $US690 million, Vice reported in September.

Bitcoin owners have accidentally lost their passwords or thrown out the hard drives storing their Bitcoin ever since it was introduced in 2009.

In 2017, James Howells, an IT worker living in the United Kingdom, lost the physical drive where he stored 7,500 Bitcoin that he mined in 2009 after mistakenly throwing it in a waste bin in 2013, The Telegraph reported. The city council refused to help retrieve the drive that was buried in a local landfill site in Newport, South Wale, saying that it is against the law. Howells’ cryptocurrency was worth over $US127 million at the time.

Bitcoin owners have long attempted to regain access to their digital wallets. These attempts include using a marketplace called All Private Keys where people can purchase, download, and try to hack into Bitcoin wallets that needs cracking, according to Vice.

Coinbase, an app-based cryptocurrency wallet that’s planning to go public this year, generates a 12-word recovery phrase or a “seed” that can be used to access Coinbase wallet, according to its website. Although Coinbase added a safeguard feature that allows users to backup their recovery phrase on encrypted Google Drive and iCloud, it still requires users to write down and remember their “secret seed” and store it in a secure location.


The scary bit is the number of orgs that offer to help recover lost passwords. What they offer "legally" to legitimate owners can just as easily be applied by hackers and crooks.
BTC was always touted as super secure. Which is fine if you don't forget your [assword!
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 11:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

How many of us remember the PIGS crisis in Europe a few years ago?
Well , it seems that perhaps the "I" part of PIGS is having a sense of Deja Vu.
From ABC News

QUOTE
Italy's former prime minister Matteo Renzi has yanked his small party out of government, stripping the ruling coalition of its parliamentary majority and triggering political chaos amid a resurgent COVID-19 epidemic.

The dispute centres on Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's spending plans and leadership style
Italy is in the worst recession since World War II as a result of the coronavirus pandemic
If the coalition can't agree, it might trigger an early election
The move could lead to a revamped Cabinet, a different coalition leader or the early election eagerly sought by right-wing opposition parties.

Mr Renzi had been chafing for weeks at what he saw as Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's heavy hand in deciding how to spend billions of euros promised by the European Union to relaunch Italy's battered economy.

"Italy Alive didn't provoke the political crisis," Mr Renzi told reporters, lambasting Mr Conte's style of leadership.

"We won't allow anyone to have full powers."

But Mr Renzi left open the possibility of rejoining the Cabinet if his demands for a policy revamp and greater accountability were acted on.

Mr Renzi has been accused by critics of playing politics in an effort to revive the fortunes of his tiny Italia Viva party, which is floundering in the polls.

His coalition partners said his decision would hurt the country, which is mired in the worst recession since World War II as a result of the coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than 80,000 Italians — the second highest toll in Europe.


An early election won't fix things. The structural problems in Italy will not go away.
Wonder at what interest rate was the Euro Bank providing the funds to the "i" section.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 11:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Yeah, probably too late for the rest of us.
PE of 46 says most of the gains have already been priced in.
I presume the construction of a REE plant will require a cap raising of some sort.
perhaps I will look at it again then.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Up 10% today, looking to pass thru the 52 week high.
Somebody likes it!
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 09:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Sounds like the same side effects that I get due to old age.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 09:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Trumps gone Plastic.
And he ain't comin back.
His supporters on the other hand ....

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 14 2021, 05:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Is it possible that the wall street banks may at last get someone in a regulatory position who will not do their bidding??
From Wall street on Parade
QUOTE
On January 7, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee, released a statement indicating that he is to become the new Chair of that Committee. The announcement came as the Democrats are set to take control of the full Senate from Republicans as a result of the Georgia runoff.

Yesterday, Brown went a step further and held a conversation with major media outlets to discuss the agenda he will set as the new Chair of Senate Banking. The formal appointment process making Brown the official Chair has yet to occur, thus Brown is the “presumed” Chair.

We get the feeling that Senator Brown took the very wise and preemptive step of getting mainstream media to announce his Chairmanship yesterday because he clearly understood that Wall Street’s mega banks would be fighting behind the scenes in an effort to prevent him from advancing to Chair.

Wall Street despises Brown because he has an institutional knowledge of their patterns of crimes against the public and the regulations that they have succeeded in getting the Trump administration to gut in order to make those crimes evermore opaque and lucrative.
Brown reserved his harshest criticism for Brian Brooks, the Acting Comptroller of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks, which includes the mega banks on Wall Street. Brown told Brooks the following:

“One West, the bank that you and [Treasury] Secretary Mnuchin and Joseph Otting [former head of the OCC in the Trump administration] worked at, was known as a foreclosure machine. It makes no sense that the outgoing President handed the wheels of the economy to so many people who had a hand in crashing it in 2008.

“Even though you’re running the OCC without the approval of the Senate, you’ve made sweeping changes to regulation to benefit the same corporations you used to lobby for. It’s exactly this kind of self-dealing that’s eroded so many Americans’ trust in their government and the economy. And last week, 80 million American voters rejected that thinking.”

I don't like his chances, but Trump was no better than his predecessors in reigning in the crims that run the wall street banks.
Maybe this time.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 13 2021, 06:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Catallaxy
QUOTE
Wikipedia:
.
• Assassination of John F. Kennedy: 12,064 words, 180 footnotes.
• General relativity: 20,549 words, 214 footnotes.
• World War II: 24,672 words, 415 footnotes.
• Jesus Christ: 25,735 words, 466 footnotes.
• 2021 storming of the United States Capitol: 38,829 words, 631 footnotes.


Not bad given the timelines involved.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 13 2021, 04:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

No one ever went broke taking a profit.
Yes, I am sure I have missed out on some windfalls, and this stock may well be another one.
But I have also avoided some big duds.
I have always taken the view that if I am in a profit of 15% or more, I sell half and hopefully sell the other half when profit reaches 30% or sometimes more if I am feeling good about a stock.
The fact that a drilling campaign is in the offing is no guarantee of further profit, as I have found out many times. (see recent GAL postings for Instance).
And in this particular stock, there are some question marks about management's motives and there are plenty of spivs and charlatans about.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 13 2021, 03:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

No one seems interested in this stock.
Nothing posted in 7 years, very much unloved.
Well, today I have given it some love.
Pe of 12, similar forecast PE, 5% div yield.
Strong revenue growth over last 18 months, although future forecasts not so strong, but still positive.
The company produces household names of soaps, cleaners, detergents etc.
The covid has increased demand for these products, hence its sales increases, though they were on the up prior to the pandemic.
Worth a punt for me.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 13 2021, 02:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Today I have added PRN to the portfolio.
The former Ausdrill co is one of those companies that still have not reached its pre covid SP.
Not sure why, they are very busy, no lack of exploration going on (both here and in Africa where they also operate).
PE of 12, as is the forecast PE for next year, so does not seem overprice.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 13 2021, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Up 11% today.
Sold the other half, I'm out.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 13 2021, 12:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Well, the trading halt was rescinded after (a) getting a speeding ticket from the headmaster
and (b) releasing some less than outstanding results from the Fraser Range soil sample testing.
Guess the word on the streets got this one all wrong.
Down 14% today, so I have taken my losses and moved on.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 13 2021, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

In a trading halt today.
A bit of a build up of buyers over sellers, so maybe the leaks have been positive.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 12 2021, 10:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I noted that Germany's largest lender, Duetsch Bank will pay $120 odd million to avoid US prosecution on charges it "engaged in foreign bribery schemes and manipulated precious metals markets".

Every time I hear some US govt rep bleat bout the currency manipulators in other countries, I laughs me head orf.
The US manipulates everything financial, and now they want to manipulate everything digital.
Gold has lost over 200 bucks and silver over 2 bucks since last Friday.
So what financial or economic news might cause such a thing?

Biden has already stated that there will be at leat two more stimulus packages, and given the financial baggage slung on the last one to appease the special interests groups, the printing presses will be going over time.
Initial Jobless claims sill going up, the November Trade deficit at 68 billion was 5 bill higher than October.
The Fed were talking about more QE less than a month ago, yet Fed govenors Clarida and Evans both spoke this week about the timelines for tapering QE. The FED have put out bullshit forecasts about no rate hikes into 2024, but only complete suckers will believe that.
Average hourly earnings rose rose from 03% in November to 0.8% in December. That will only feed into inflation, which is of course what the FED really wants.
So what causes these sudden losses when all the financial data points the other way?
The great manipulators strike again.

Anyone who falls for the leftist crap about the dems caring for the poor should consider this:
With all the demands for lockdowns, stay at homes, no dining out, who suffers the most? It ain't privileged white elites. It is estimated that about 40% of all jobs are in the low paid hospitality/ service industry. Guess who inhabits those jpbs, mostly poorly educated non white citizens, both legal and questionable. And guess who loses out in the loss of jobs?
Big business elites and the well paid public officers who inhabit the federal, state and local governments demand everyone else suffer, but not them. They can work from home, self isolate , lecture everyone else, and not lose a dime in the process. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer, no matter who is in the Whitehouse, Congress, or senate.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 12 2021, 04:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

That must have been a very productive lunch.
LKE reached a 52 week high today.
Had a sell order triggered that I had forgotten about, so I am happy that I offloaded half at a good profit.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 12 2021, 11:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From China Power
QUOTE
As China’s economy has developed over the last several decades, its leaders have sought to transform the country into a key player in strategically important industries. Toward this end, Beijing has established China as the dominant global supplier of rare earths, a collection of 17 minerals that are indispensable to the manufacturing of smartphones, electric vehicles, military weapon systems, and countless other advanced technologies.

Beijing has demonstrated a willingness to leverage its weight in the global rare earth industry in pursuit of its political objectives, raising alarm bells in several major countries. However, China’s influence within the industry is likely to be eroded in the coming years as changing market dynamics empower new actors to compete.
Despite their name, most rare earth elements are relatively abundant. The process of mining rare earths and transforming them into usable materials is, however, expensive and damaging to the environment. For years, Beijing exploited its relatively low-cost labor force and lax environmental laws to gain a competitive edge in the global market and become the leading supplier of rare earths. From 2008 to 2018, China exported nearly 408,000 metric tons of rare earths, which amounted to 42.3 percent of all rare earth exports over the period. The United States was the second-largest exporter, supplying roughly 9.3 percent of the global total. Malaysia (9.1 percent), Austria (9.0 percent), and Japan (7.1 percent) rounded out the top five.Among these major economies, only Japan has achieved some success at reducing reliance on China. From 2008 to 2018, the share of Japanese rare earth imports from China fell from 91.3 percent to 58 percent. As of 2018, the US still imported 80.5 percent of its rare earths from China. The EU and South Korea have successfully diversified their imports of certain compounds, like cerium, but they remain almost completely reliant on China for imports of rare earth metals and alloys.2 For example, the EU imported 7,105.9 metric tons of cerium compounds in 2018, of which less than one-quarter came from China. However, nearly all (98.5 percent) of its imports of rare earth metals and alloys came from China.
[/While China maintains a commanding presence within the global rare earth industry, Beijing’s capacity to unilaterally disrupt supply chains is likely to be eroded in the coming years. A number of initiatives are underway that may prove successful at establishing new rare earth suppliers outside of China. Shifting market dynamics are likely to aid these efforts.

There are already signs that other players have started to chip away at China’s dominance in certain areas. Mining of raw rare earth materials outside of China has ramped up significantly in recent years as the US’ Mountain Pass mine, and other mines around the world, have increased their output. China’s share of global mining production has slipped as a result, from a high of 97.7 percent in 2010 to 62.9 percent in 2019 – the lowest point since 1995. China’s share of global rare earth reserves has likewise fallen from 50 percent to 36.7 percent over the same period.



Its a much longer article than what I can post here, but worth the full read for those interested in the REMs.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 12 2021, 09:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

You forgot to add celebrities who think their opinions on any matter at all is of any importance to the rest of us.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 12 2021, 09:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Full drilling results out today.
Its a dud.
Mck
`
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 12 2021, 08:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

India played magnificently, helped to a great deal by some poor catching.
Pain the main culprit.
Felt sorry for Lyon.
he created the oportunities, but they were not taken.
But India showed tons of intestinal fortitude to see the draw out quite easily in the end.
Ashwin stood up to a brutal barrage from the Aussie quicks.
Had some luck, but you need luck in test cricket.
It was almost as good as a win.
Lambshanks needs to just shut up.
I found his constant yapping pain.
Gave me another excuse to watch the TV with the mute button on.
Wade was no better.
On the other hand, I had distinct question marks over the way India used Pant.
Were able to sub him out and replace him with a much better keeper in Saha, and Pant rested for the day while the OZ team batted.
Then comes out to bat and plays quite brilliantly.
I couldn't see much evidence of the injury after the first twenty balls or so as he got his eye in.
With a three day turn around for this match, the OZ bowlers will have little recovery time, and if India bat first at the Gabba, may be struggling a bit.
When you consider the quality of the players missing from this Indian side, and the strength of their bench, the fact that they are playing in a foreign country under vastly different conditions, I think this Indian side is significantly superior to that of OZ, and is well placed to dominate cricket for some time.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 11 2021, 07:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Yeah, thats the way things go sometimes.
I was always in for the long haul.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 11 2021, 07:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The Earl claimed a "prior use' patent defence.
mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 11 2021, 06:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The absurdities of life.
Teletubbies ARE REAL!!
QUOTE
Bradford Council have recruited people to walk around with Tvs strapped above their heads to warn people of the dangers of Covid.

Completely normal.

Works for me.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 11 2021, 09:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

GML released dome "outstanding" drill results.
Sifting thu the company hyperbole, there are some pretty goof intersections.
Should at least hold its own today when most of the PM miners/explorers will be down.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 10 2021, 06:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Nah, the Indians wouldn't be that underhand!
They were never going to play a second game in Sydney, the curator ruled it out last week saying there had been no preparation of another pitch, and it takes weeks to get them ready.
I have no idea as to whether the Melbourne curator has been preparing another pitch, just in case.
Don't think it will worry the OZ bowlers much where the game is played.
Not so sure about the OZ batsmen though.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 8 2021, 03:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

DCN hit 55, up 3% when all my other goldies down.
Somebody wants a piece of the action, RSI booming up on the chart.
Question is, how far will it go before it gets chomped like the other gold stocks??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 8 2021, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

UOz suffering another collapse.
Lost 5 for 72 so far today.
At least this time there have been two fifties and a century this time, after Pucovski 's lucky day yesterday..
Smith and Labuschagne to the rescue.
Green looked a little vulnerable in his 21 ball duck, and Wade played an almost identical shot to the one that Jadeja got him in last test.
OZ still look brittle, and despite the good day yesterday, they are a long way from being on top in this test.
Mick


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 8 2021, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I have in the past subscribed to the Daily Reckoning, particularly when it took a contrarian stance to so many commentators on the economy, and offered an alternative viewpoint to the mainstream fools.
Just recently, I re subscribed to it to see what they are up to.
Well, today I unsubscribed.
What used to be a well reasoned if slightly biased newsletter has turned into another right wing conspiracy laded click bait piece of junk.
It has joined Jo Ane nova as a once good source of alternative views to lunacy.
There is not much non mainstream quality out there these days.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 8 2021, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

sold the last of my GNC yesterday.
I think any gains are fully priced in, its on a forward PE of 176, so I think most of the gains are done.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2021, 04:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Indians obviously keen for Pucovski to get a good start in his test cricket career.
Dropped twice and a runout chance muffed before he got his fifty.
And he has not been hit in the head.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2021, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

When I saw the following, my internal alarms starting going off.
QUOTE
Money3 is a well run, profitable and rapidly growing niche automotive lender that is only just appearing on many investors’ radars. As a provider of car loans largely for customers with a less than perfect credit history, the company has managed to grow its loan book at a CAGR of more than 32% over the last 5 years, benefiting as the big banks pulled back from this segment of the market to focus only on the most credit-worthy car buyers.

What was it that contributed so nastily to the GFC??
Lenders dropping standards and just lending to anybody.
As for "Compassionate process for dealing with customers arrears", well thats great for the customers, but theres no way I would put any of my money into it.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2021, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Yeah, risk benefit analysis.
Living in regional Victoria, where the cases have been very much lower, we don't feel terribly vulnerable.
The Pharmacist is very much a pro vaxer, but experience in Africa, Asia and pacific countries has given her a bit of a jolt about what can go wrong when things are done in haste.
Perhaps if case numbers start to rocket here, she would reconsider.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 7 2021, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I have two members of my household who are a respectively a pharmacist working in community pharmacy, and one who is an Occupational therapist working in a regional hospital.
Both have said they will wait for as long as possible before getting the jab.
The pharmacist in particular is wary about the lack of long term phase three testing.
I am deferring to her judgement.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 6 2021, 09:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

NZ have played 4 tests this summer. won them all.
They now sit at the top of the test table, for the first time ever.
This is probably the best NZ side ever put on the field.
Yes, they have all been at home, and yes they were thrashed last time they came to OZ, but they have the best batsmen in world rankings, Kane Williamson, an outstanding bowling attack (perhaps lacking a little in the spin department), and tend to not get into any aggro games on the field with their opponents.
Well done to them.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 6 2021, 04:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

QUOTE
May be a Trump supporter

You mean the Ohio governor who said about 60% refused the vaccine or one of the refusers??
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 6 2021, 03:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

from Todays OZ

It seems that US health care workers have some reservations about the COVID vaccines.
QUOTE
Healthcare workers reluctant to have the coronavirus vaccine may have added to delays in the nationwide effort to immunise Americans.

Those working on the front line of the battle against the virus are meant to be among the first to receive the jab.

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine said about 60 per cent of nursing home staff in his state had declined an initial dose of the vaccine when it was offered to them.

Similar concerns have been raised in California, where hospitals in several counties have reported staff declining the vaccine. At a health district in a northern county and in another county east of Los Angeles, about half of those offered a first dose refused it, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Reluctance among healthcare workers to take the vaccine has surprised US officials.

A nurse at a hospital in the city told the paper that she had refused the vaccine because she was pregnant. Though the Centres for Disease Control has said the vaccine is unlikely to pose a risk to pregnant women, April Lu, 31, said she was choosing between “the risk of having Covid, or the risk of the unknown of the vaccine”.

Ms Lu added that some of her colleagues calculated that they had managed for months without contracting the virus. “I feel people think, ‘I can still make it until this ends without getting the vaccine’,” she said.

About 15 million doses of the vaccine have been distributed and more than 4.5 million doses had been administered by the start of this week according to the CDC — far short of government aspirations to vaccinate 20 million people last month.

Hesitancy among healthcare workers has surprised officials, who presumed that the take-up would be higher among hospital workers than the general public.

The spread of misinformation about the vaccine allegedly drove a pharmacist in Wisconsin to try to spoil 500 doses by removing them from refrigeration over two successive nights. Steven Brandenburg, 46, who was arrested last week, told police he had been attempting to render the vaccine inert because he believed it could alter people’s DNA, a prosecutor said.

False claims to this effect have circulated about the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine, as well as the Moderna vaccine, apparently because they use a relatively new technique.

Anthony Fauci, the top US expert on infectious diseases, predicted that despite the sluggish start the country could soon be handing out at least a million Covid vaccinations a day,

Not sure how accurate the statement about false or mis information being spread has been the major cause for the reluctance of health workers to take up the vaccine.
I would have thought it be the opposite. if anyone knows about the false or misleading crap coming from social media, one would assume that health professionals would be the most literate.

perhaps they have good reasons.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 6 2021, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From OFX Daily


QUOTE
The Australian Dollar rallied back through 0.77 US cents Tuesday, pushing through the December 31 high and resistance at 0.7750. Having slipped below 0.7650 in the latter hours of trade on Monday, the AUD regained the upper hand late in the domestic session before rallying strongly overnight and in the lead up to this morning’s open. Having tested resistance at 0.7740/50, the AUD surged upward after China’s central bank, the PBOC, elected to set the official Yuan midpoint value at 6.4760, one percent higher than the previous fix and the largest single adjustment since China moved away from a fix peg valuation in 2005. The Australian Dollar is often seen as proxy to the Yuan, and it certainly benefited from the PBOC’s aggressive correction, advancing to mark fresh highs at 0.7779.


I was surprised at that last sentence, I have never heard of the AUD as being seen as proxy to the Yuan. New one to me.
Not sure why the CCP wanted a higher YUAN, unless they were planning a buying spree.


Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 11:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

SLR is an interesting stock.
I have been in and out a few times as the gold price gyrated.
Bought some a few weeks ago at 1.80, up to 1.97 today and tempted to sell.
The thing is, it is sitting on a big pile of cash, currently sitting at $270 mill, and only 53 mill in debt.
Ibn the past they have funded growth and capex via debt, but they have reduced debt and increased net cash.
So what are they going to do with it??
Acquisitons?
Return some to investors?
Invest on other goldies?
Will be interested to see the half yearly report and see what the free cash generated is.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 09:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

NCK another to have benefitted from the COVID lockdown.
People buying furniture because they couldn't go out or travel.
After that April low of 3.44, has powered up to almost 11 bucks.
Over 300% increase in 8 months.
Up 8.5% again today.
Still on a PE of only 12.5
Seems like a reasonable investment if they can keep up that sales growth(and thats where the headwinds might lie).
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

In the most recent run of COVID cases in OZ, there has been one glaring event missing.
No one has dies from it for some time.
I think the last death was one back in late November.
perhaps the latest strains spread easier, but is not quite as virulent.
Or perhaps they are keeping it out of the homes of elderly residents a little better.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 07:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

DCN put out another solid quarterly.
Still on track for the top end of the yearly production guidance.
Would be good for a change to see this company surprise on the upside rather than the downside as has been the case for a the past two years.
Hedge book now down to half a years production, debt reducing so that the total cash and gold on hand would pay it down.
Things should look a little brighter in a years time, assuming the gold price keeps higher (or even better if it goes higher!).
Regret that SP did not get back to my price of 30 cents, has now gone nearly 50% higher than that buy in price, but that's the way things go sometimes.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 07:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

RMS puts out another good quarterly, with production slightly above the top end of guidance, always a good sign.
With the previous quarter also above the top end of guidance, the year so far is looking good.
Good cash flow again, with a net increase even after royalty payments, dividends, the spectrum acquisition, debt repayments and planned exploration and capex expenditure. Unless they go on an acquisition hunt, may see some cash returned to investors.
I like a well managed profitable cash generating business.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 07:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Should be even better today.
AUD fell against the USD, but precious metals still went up.
Gold up $70 in AUD, and silver up nearly a buck to go above $35 AUD.
And from Kitco News comes the stats that in 2020, there was a 455% increase in gold coin sales from US mint,
Sales of silver coins were up a mere 100%.
it seems that Joe Public is a little smarter than the experts give them credit for.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 5 2021, 06:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Interesting prospectus issued yesterday.
A 31 page doc that seeks approval to issue 100,000 shares at 0.09 and thus raise the princely sum of $9,000.
Would hardly buy lunch for the board!
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 08:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

EB, do not take medical advice from the internet.
If you are not happy with your doctor, go see another one.
And if you are unhappy about the medications, talk to a pharmacist, especially one who is accredited to do home medication reviews.
They tend to hone in on overprescribing where extra meds are prescribed to treat adverse reactions.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 01:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Myshares, not sure if this is what you actually meant to say, but i read your response as suggesting that statins are a treatment for blood pressure (the BP in your response?).
That is incorrect.
Sartans (also called ARB ) , as well as Ace Inhibitors such as ramipril and lisinopril , are used to treat High Blood Pressure.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I was one of many people prescribed statins in my early 50's due to elevated cholesterol levels.
My wife who is a pharmacist, explained that some people have an adverse reaction to these drugs, and i very quickly found out I was one of the them.
Muscle soreness was the biggest issue. I was a gym junkie, and the statisn made it almost impossible to even moderate exercise.
In consulattion with my doctor, I ceased taking statins.
Side effects disappeared, and my cholesterol did not change.
The following article European Scientist
highlights the problems with the Framlingham Study that first bought the concept of Cholesterol being associated with heart disease.
Another article from Acedemic ou makes the case that the otherwise brilliant work by Brown and Goldstein in discovering the link between genetics and cholesterol, is soured by the incorrect conclusion in causal effects of cholesterol.
There are plenty of heart specialist who contend that the plaques that are built up in artereosclerosis deaths are the real cause rather than the levels of cholesterol.
There can be plenty of papers that argue the opposite of course, but so many are funded by Big pharma, who are looking for a predetermined outcome.

The jury is still out on this one.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 10:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

It would seem that the us defence forces suffer from creeping bureacratic truism of there being too many chiefs and not enough Indians.
From Todays OZ


QUOTE
The Australian Army has 29,511 regular personnel, plus 18,738 active reservists. It could field a division-minus sized force, or the field command of a major-general. Notionally, however, we have the structure for two divisions.

The Australian Army’s 1st Division comprises a deployable headquarters, while 2nd Division under the command of Forces Command is the main home-defence formation, containing Army Reserve units. The Australian Army has not deployed a division-sized formation since 1945 and does not expect to do so in the future.

The Australian Army currently has 86 regular officers of general rank, while the Army Reserve has 98.

By comparison, size-wise, with the Australian Army, the US Army had (in December 2019) 472,595 active-duty personnel, with another 191,007 in reserve, and an Army National Guard of 331,881. The US Marine Corps is a separate service with 180,958 active members.

In the US military, the total number of active-duty general officers is capped at 231 for the army and 62 for the Marine Corps.

This means that the US Army has one general for every 2045 soldiers and the Marine Corps one for every 2919 marines.

By contrast, the Australian Army has one regular army general for 345 regular soldiers. If you add the Australian Regular Army and the Active Reserve together, you get around 50,000 personnel and 184 generals, or one general for every 271 soldiers.

The US has managed to keep the number of generals down by having lower-ranking officers performing tasks that in the Australian Army would be performed by a one-star or above.

A US brigade, for example, is headed by a full colonel, not a brigadier. It’s also not uncommon for a senior officer to be working for a more senior officer of the same rank.

Australian “rank bloat” comes at some expense, given that a brigadier has a minimum annual salary of $200,000 and a three-star has a maximum salary of around $500,000.

If we brought our rank and responsibility structure into line with that of our major ally, the US, we would need no more than 15 regular army generals for an army of 30,000, and perhaps 10 reserve generals for an active reserve of up to 20,000 personnel.

In conclusion, Australia could probably afford to lose more than 150 army generals and be none the worse for it!


The current defence force Chief, Angus Campbell has seen no active military service ( i don't count the East Timor peace keeping as active duty).
I wonder how many of the generals are in a similar position?
People with no service in a wartime precinct making decisions for and about those who do.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 4 2021, 10:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Gold jumped through USD1900, silver about to hit USD$27.
Good day for me.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2021, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Malcolm Kendrick has always been a bit of a maverick.
Heres his bio from Rational Wiki
QUOTE
Malcolm Kendrick is a GP, conspiracy theorist author, cholesterol denialist and low-carb diet advocate. He is best known for his controversial claim that high blood cholesterol does not increase the risk of heart disease. Kendrick dislikes the medical community and argues against the use of statins.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Nothwithstanding that bio (or maybe because of it?), I went ahead and read a an article by him on Covid.
The article can be found HERE!
Its far too long for me to copy and paste, but I would recommend its reading.
He graphs the actual data as distinct from model data, and comes to some rather surprising conclusions.
I will leave it up to others as to whether they agree or disagree with theses conclusions.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2021, 01:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

from ABC NEWS

QUOTE
New South Wales Acting Premier John Barilaro says it is up to the Queensland Government whether the SCG will host back-to-back Test matches, with Indian officials reportedly expressing concerns about having to play under quarantine conditions in Brisbane.

Acting NSW Premier John Barilaro says Sydney is open to hosting the fourth Test
Reports suggest India is not happy to enter a hard quarantine in Queensland for the fourth Test
Australia has not lost a Test at the Gabba since 1988 and India has never won a Test there
The Australian and Indian teams are set to fly to Sydney on Monday to continue preparations for the third Test, before flying to Queensland for the fourth and final match.

However, a source in the Indian camp has reportedly expressed concern over the team being forced into a hard quarantine upon entry to Queensland, saying they would rather the final — and possibly deciding — Test be played elsewhere.

The speculation about a venue change comes as both Cricket Australia and the BCCI investigate whether five of India's players broke biosecurity protocols in Melbourne on Friday.

A video on social media appeared to show Rohit Sharma, Rishabh Pant, Shubman Gill, Prithvi Shaw and Navdeep Saini eating inside a restaurant.


A cynic might suggest it was more of a case of preferring to play at the spin friendly SCG venue instead of a seaming Gabba Wicket, rather than any real concerns about quaranteening. Especially with two world class spinners in their team.
And of course the second wicket will likely be a bit underprepared in the interval between the two games, helping the deterioration, and thus their spinners.
Especially as there has been a bit of video proof of half the team eating in a restaurant seemingly behind closed doors in breach of the agreed protocol.
Nah, the Indians are not that underhand.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 3 2021, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Nomenclature at its finest
QUOTE
The long-suffering residents of the small Austrian village of Fucking have confirmed that, from January 1, the town will be known as Fugging. Fans of unusual place-names will mourn the loss.The small Austrian village of Fucking will get rid of the unfortunate name that has seen a brisk tourism trade and frequent thefts of the town sign, the town council announced Thursday.

Mayor Andrea Holzner told Austrian broadcaster Oe24 that the name would be changed to Fugging from January 1, 2021.

The small community in Upper Austria of around 100 people has been pushing for a name change for years, the German Press Agency reported. The name of the town, which lies north of Salzburg near the German border, has no meaning in German.

Locals have grown frustrated by the thefts of the town signs by tourists and of people photographing the sign.


Probably a good idea.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 2 2021, 10:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The really interesting question is, what medical quals to the wankers hold that allows them to make the decisions in the first place?
Bureacraps (no, not one of my regular spelling mistakes), making decisions about matters beyond their level of expertise, assuming they have ANY expertise, is a hallmark of governments and bean counters.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 2 2021, 10:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Goldmoney

QUOTE
The most important event in the new year is likely to be the Fed losing control of its iron grip on markets. The dollar’s declining trend is already well established against other currencies and commodities, leading to this outcome.

Events in 2021 will be the consequence of a developing hyperinflation of the dollar. Foreign holders of dollars and dollar assets — currently totalling $27.7 trillion — are sure to increase the pace of reducing their exposure. This is a primal threat to the Fed’s policy of using QE to continually inflate assets in the name of promoting a wealth effect and continuing to finance a rapidly increasing federal government deficit by supressing interest rates.

Bubbles will then pop, leaving establishment investors exposed to a combined collapse of fiat currencies, bonds and equity markets, which could turn out to be very rapid. The question remaining is what will replace collapsing fiat currencies: limited issue distributed ledger cryptos, such as bitcoin, or precious metals, such as gold?


The above quote is but a synopsis of the rather long article, but well worth a read IMHO.
I am not convinced about the conclusions , that Gold will be paramount over the other asset classes, I think there is an equal chance that Bitcoinn or some other VC will be paramount, I just don't know.

QUOTE
To be forced to raise more through monetary inflation than by taxation in one year is unfortunate, but to have to do it two years on the trot is venturing down the path to hyperinflation


One of the interesting charts is the increases in commodities and other asset classes since the trigger point in March.
The cryptos have been many timers more successful than anything else.
The Commodities choses have all outstripped gold in the time frame, and gold has in turn outstripped the other major currencies.
If the CB's decide to all go down the crypto path, I can't see how they will not be tempted to merely make them a digital fiat currency.
I can see bigger increases for both gold and BTC.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 2 2021, 10:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Nothing like a the bureacracy to make things difficult in an emergency.
Mate of mine in UK who works as an Orderly in a regional hospital sent me this gem.

FromTwitter
QUOTE
Recently retired doctors are being prevented from helping administer COVID-19 vaccines because the NHS requires them to have “diversity training” and knowledge of “radicalisation.”

Yes, really.

40,000 doctors and nurses applied to return to the NHS back in March at the start of the pandemic but only 5,000 had been given jobs by July, according to a report in the Telegraph.

Similar bureaucracy is also hampering the vaccine rollout, with doctors having to fulfil the requirements of the Equality Act.
This means that when they wade into the minefield that is the application process for helping to administer the vaccine, they have to provide 20 pieces of evidence, including documents on Equality, Diversity and Human Rights, Fire Safety, Conflict Resolution, and Preventing Radicalisation.

“Reached this page on my application and have given up for now. Can’t see many retired clinicians wading through this lot – or having all required docs,” said Professor Maureen Baker.


Radicalisation?
Think it might be too late.
mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 30 2020, 10:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Another profit downgrade from IRI.
I guess you can blame anything on COVID, but I think they have done their dash.
The market will dump them.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 30 2020, 10:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Travis Head has had enough chances.
After 19 tests, his average is still below 40, and just does not seem to have the temperament for test cricket.
May as well play Marcus Harris with Warner (assuming he is fit), and let Pucovski make his debut at No 5.
Mind you, I am not sure either will make a lot of difference.
If India play the two spinners , then win the toss and bat first in Sydney, they will be very hard to beat, Kohli or no Kohli.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 30 2020, 11:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

All currencies are fiat currencies, so the AUD is not alone there.
The AUD is the fifth most traded currency in the world.
The level of trading far exceeds the level of trading of goods in Oz.
For many external investors, the AUD is a proxy for commodities.
It matters little what the reality is, its all about the market.
As someone once said,bthe market can remain irrational fR longer than an individual can remain solvent.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 29 2020, 04:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Things going peZr shaped quite rapidly.
China has added timber products and wheat to its list of banned products.
Perhaps its time that the FEDs put a bigger royalty payment on iron or e to china to help pay the industries the bastards have screwed.
What I dont understand is why the AUD has not tanked, given our largest trading partner is going out of its way to damage pretty much every industry it can.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 28 2020, 08:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The main difference between the two teams is the catching.
I don’t recall an Indian player dropping a catch, and some of the ones they did take were very good.
Rahane was drooped three times in getting to his century, with two others going down.
The bowlers must feel mighty pissed off.
They do all the hard work, andthe fielders let them down.
Stark must have felt well and truly aggrieved, he had three of the five off his bowling.
India thoroughly deserve to win this test , which is even more creditable when you consider how badly they beaten in the last test, and given the quality of players missing.
We will hear all the platitudes about sticking with the players, but so far, Wade is the only batsman who can hold his head up.
Players like Renshaw, Handscombe, Cameron Bancroft and even Glen Maxwell must be wondering why they never got as many opportunities as either Burns or Head.
The outer players must feel miffed, the inconsistencies of selectors is astounding.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 28 2020, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

To paraphrase some body else , “ Well they would saybthat would they not.”
Fund managers rely on suckers believing that the said managers know what they are talking about and can improve returns.
You are already behind the eight ball because the managers take out their fees anything comes the way of the punter.
When was the last time a fund manager said get out of the market?
Never, because they would be cutting off their lucrative income streams.
Mick the cynic
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 24 2020, 03:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From ABC News

QUOTE
A woman who arrived in Cairns on a super yacht is one of two people who have tested positive to COVID-19 in Queensland in the past 24 hours, Health Minister Yvette D'Ath says.
The superyacht arrived in Cairns from the Maldives sometime in the past two weeks.
She said the super yacht crew were not being helpful with contact tracing.

The infected crew member is now recovering in hospital and the remaining ship's crew have been placed in quarantine.


Geez, how bad is our so called gold standard border force protection is a super yacht waltzes in and no body knows exactly when, and the crew are being uncooperative. All vessels in international waters are supposed to have GPS trackers. Was theres turned on??
Put em in the slammer and see how long it takes for them to be cooperative.
What about the quarantine, customs, and immigration checks? Were none of them done?
Queensland should be asking the feds what the hell is going on.
As is usual, wealthy and privileged seem to think that laws and regs just don't apply to the,
Reminds of the saga of pistol and Boo, another set of wealthy egos.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 24 2020, 03:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Yeah, probably true, however, I doubt that the army of his loyal supporters care about "the other presidential stuff" either.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 24 2020, 02:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Was more than a little surprised at the rally of the USD in recent days.
Its not like the fundamentals are anything to write home about.
Apart from the massive deficits the US government is running (and about to increase by 2 trillion if congress gets its way), the COVID induced decline in jobs, US consumer confidence taking a battering, and US home sales declined last month, everything is rosy.
Just can't seem to work out reasons for the love for the USD.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 24 2020, 11:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

QUOTE
2 For necessary expenses of the Office of Ethics,

Well, ya need desks, swivel chairs, a coffee machine, a fridge, nice boardroom table, plenty of hand sanitiser., it all adds up ya know!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 23 2020, 09:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I know its not ok to offer any praise at all to that Bloke trump, but i couldn't really fault his comments below
QUOTE
President Donald Trump demanded Tuesday that Congress amend the coronavirus rescue package and government funding bill before sending it to his desk.

The massive 5,593-page bill was passed by both the House and the Senate on Monday night but immediately drew criticism for only sending $600 of direct aid to each American.

Trump criticized the bill for extending direct coronavirus relief payments to family members of illegal aliens, getting up to $1,800 each.

“This is far more than the Americans are given,” Trump said.

The president did not say he would veto the bill but demanded that Congress amend it before sending it to his desk.

“I am asking Congress to amend this bill and increase the ridiculously low $600 to $2000, or $4000 for a couple,” he said.

The also president lamented that the bill also failed to provide substantial aid to restaurants and small businesses.

Trump berated members of Congress for failing to even read the massive bill before passing it quickly in the last hours before the Christmas holiday.

“It’s called the COVID relief bill, but it has almost nothing to do with COVID,” he said.

He criticized the billions appropriated for aid to countries like Cambodia, Burma, Egypt, countries in Central America, and even $25 million for “democracy and gender programs” in Pakistan.

The president also ridiculed the bill for including $40 million for the Kennedy Center, $1 billion for the Smithsonian, and $154 for the National Gallery of Art.

“Congress found plenty of money for foreign countries and lobbyists and special interests, while sending the bare minimum to the American people who need it,” Trump said.

Trump demanded that Congress send a better coronavirus aid package, suggesting that he might not sign it.

“I am also asking Congress to immediately get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items from this legislation and to send me a suitable bill or else the next administration will have to deliver a COVID relief package, and maybe that administration will be me and we will get it done,” he concluded.

Not sure about that last line, wishfull thinking or just plain bullshit.
But the rest makes sense to me.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 23 2020, 07:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Polling suggests that the Georgia Congress runoff elections will give victory to the democrats over the Republicans.
This will give the Dems the ultimate control - the presidency, the senate, and the House of reps.
If this happens, be prepared for some big changes in policy.
it remains to be seen whether these changes are for the good or the bad, but I guess that is very much a matter of opinion.
From an investment perspective, it will be interesting to see what affect it has on the USD, Gold prices, on Oil (down for sure), on commodities, on the stock market , on relationships with China, Iran and Russia among others, immgration both legal and illegal, and a few other things I have not thought of.
Interesting times in the US ahead, with a flow on to other regions.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 22 2020, 08:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Well, if you can believe Breitbart News, quite a lot of things have been included in the omnibus bill.
The big question is , how much of it is true??
From Breitbart news

QUOTE
American taxpayers still reeling from coronavirus lockdowns will be shelling out billions to foreign countries if Congress passes a $2.3 trillion spending bill unveiled Monday.

The 5,593 page budget-busting bill was posted online Monday afternoon, only hours before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said a vote would be held.

For some countries, Christmas came early:

$169,739,000 to Vietnam, including $19 million to remediate dioxins (page 1476).
Unspecified funds to “continue support for not-for-profit institutions of higher education in Kabul, Afghanistan that are accessible to both women and men in a coeducational environment” (page 1477).
$198,323,000 to Bangladesh, including $23.5 million to support Burmese refugees and $23.3 million for “democracy programs” (page 1485).
$130,265,000 to Nepal for “development and democracy programs” (page 1485).
Pakistan: $15 million for “democracy programs” and $10 million for “gender programs” (page 1486).
Sri Lanka: Up to $15 million “for the refurbishing of a high endurance cutter,” which is a type of patrol boat (page 1489).
$505,925,000 to Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama to “address key factors that contribute to the migration of unaccompanied, undocumented minors to the United States” (pages 1490-1491).
$461,375,000 to Colombia for programs related to counternarcotics and human rights (pages 1494-1496).
$74.8 million to the “Caribbean Basin Security Initiative” (page 1498).
$33 million “for democracy programs for Venezuela” (page 1498).
Unspecified amount to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Curacao, and Trinidad and Tobago “for assistance for communities in countries supporting or otherwise impacted by refugees from Venezuela” (page 1499).
$132,025,000 “for assistance for Georgia” (page 1499).
$453 million “for assistance for Ukraine” (page 1500).


Thats a fair bit of pork barelling in anyones language.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 22 2020, 01:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Much has been spoken about the 900 billion USD support package that has finally passed the US congress.
The problem with these sort of omnibus bills, is the crap they tack onto it, or hide in the entrails.
From Yahoo news
The most significant aspect of Congress' omnibus spending bill is the $900 coronavirus relief package embedded within it, but there are a few surprising add-ons — as there usually are in such legislation — tucked into the nearly 6,000-paged text.
QUOTE
One item that snuck in there was the proposed creation of two new Smithsonian museums, one focused on women's history, and the other for the proposed "National Museum of the American Latino." Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) had previously blocked standalone bills that would have funded them.

The package also contains proposed legislation that would change how drugs are regulated in horseracing, a murder hornet eradication program, and a continued ban on federal funding for the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, an organization that hasn't existed for years. That language has apparently appeared quite frequently in bills over the last few years, and some Republican lawmakers reportedly think it may just keep getting copy-and-pasted by aides.

The sovereignty of Tibet, Taiwan, and Hong Kong also received frequent mention, which, in other words, means the bill includes language hinting at opposition to potential Chinese encroachment on those places. One item that's been garnering a lot of attention concerns the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. Several observers pointed out that while that may seem unnecessary or even silly at first glance, especially because it seems out of place in a bill primarily focused on pandemic relief, it actually addresses a significant geopolitical issue.


6,000 pages of text. I wonder what else is in there that they have not even found yet.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 22 2020, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Chuck Butlers daily email
QUOTE
I read last week that Twenty-five percent (25% or 1/4 ) of all US Dollars to ever be in existence were created in the last nine months. And that’s before they added another $900 Billion!


I decided to check on this one, and the closest I could get to was the graph at The Street that suggested 23.6% of all USD in history were created in the past year.
Reasonably close to Chucks claim.
MIck
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 22 2020, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The article at ABC News
has a headline that blames Climate Change for the death of Dolphins in the Gippsland lakes.

QUOTE
Australian scientists for the first time have determined climate change as the cause of deadly skin lesions found in two species of extremely endangered bottlenose dolphins in Australia.
Researchers have, for the first time, identified and defined the condition, which they have called 'Fresh Water Skin Disease (FWSD)
With dolphin numbers on the decline, experts are worried for the future of Burrunan dolphin in eastern Victoria
Since September, six dead Burrunan dolphins have been reported in the Gippsland Lakes and all of them showed similar discoloured ulcers on the skin's surface.

Finally after decades of research, Australian marine animal experts have been able to fully characterise the lesions and come up with a name for the condition — Fresh Water Skin Disease (FWSD).

So what is it?

Equivalent to human 'third degree burns'
Fresh Water Skin Disease occurs when there is a sudden increase of fresh water in a usually salty water system.

It then causes skin lesions on marine dolphins that can only survive in saltwater conditions.

So how does the climate change part come into it?
The good Vet Doctor Stephens goes on to say

QUOTE
Over time, the Gippsland Lakes have become more saline, due to a range of factors including years of drought.

Lead Researcher and Lecturer in Veterinary Pathology at Murdoch University, Nahiid Stephens said dolphins usually presented with the disease after heavy rain or a major storm.

"The Gippsland Lakes is a brackish to marine environment because it's open to the sea so although its source is a river, because of marine water mixing its actually quite salty," Dr Stephens said.Common to all FWSD discoveries globally, is a preceding extreme weather event like that seen in the United States after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

"What we know from comparing to similar situations across the world, is that these outbreaks always occur after sudden heavy rainfall, which makes us very concerned that we’re going to see an increase of FWSD in dolphins that live in low-lying areas and are vulnerable to worsening climate change," she said.

"If they're pushed to the brink we may lose them and they'll completely die out.

"We have to tackle the wicked problem of climate change which is multi-faceted and we also have to alleviate other threats to dolphins, because how many more wakeup calls do we need before it's too late?"


I don't know what quals a Vet doctor has in Climate science, but he obviously does not know a lot about the ecology of Fresh water lakes systems.
Firstly, the we have been constantly told that climate change has reduced the amount of rainfall along the eastern seaboard. So you would expect less fresh water to be coming down if that claim is correct.
Secondly, up until 1800, when the dredging started to permanently open the entrance of the lakes to the ocean, the lakes would have been almost always fresh unless there was a flood significant enough to gouge out a new entrance. The dolphins have most likely only made the lake their home after the entrance was made permanent, and the lakes became more saline because of it.
Thirdly, if we believe that the oceans are going to rise by metres, the lakes will be far more likely to be brackish than fresh, and thus be of benefit to the dolphins.
The science of determining the cause of lesions may well be correct.
The "science" of blaming climate change for causing these lesions would not pass grade three science lessons.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 22 2020, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The enquiry was designed to do that.
Have lots and lots of documents that say nothing.
mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 21 2020, 09:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Costello, like so many politicians , advocates for the changes after he left politics.
He had ample time and resources to fix things, but did not.
I can only speak for Victoria, but we have huge buildups of suburbia with little or no infrastructure.
Costello argues from an economic perspective, but like the other great treasurer, Paul Keating, was so far removed from the consequences of their decisions or lack of decisions, that they provide little re@l progression of the argument.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 21 2020, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

So we go down the path of increased immigration.
Unfortunately, in the past this idea has been poorly handled.
Firstly, we already have the vast majority of the population along the Eastern seaboard, within 100 kms of the coast.
So the overcrowded cities are going to spread further out to the suburbs.
The burbs already have a chronic lack of services - communications, adequate roads, schools, hospitals and specialised health services, public transport, higher education, and access to the movers and shakers in the cites.
The infrastructure needs to be built and ready first, not after the need becomes acute.
Secondly, you are going to further alienate the conservative types in the bush who see their culture and lifestyle being scorned as not worth keeping and being forced to embrace the "worldview" of humanity, rather than the Australian view (whatever that is!).
Thirdly, with the emphasis on skilled migration, it squeezes out lots of unskilled citizens already here.
Population growth needs to be planned in significantly better way that the haphazard schemozzle we have had in the past.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 21 2020, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Inequality.com via CBSNEWS
QUOTE
The nation's 644 billionaires have enjoyed a staggering rise in wealth since the pandemic shuttered the economy in March, with the group gaining almost $1 trillion in total net worth, according to a new analysis. The spike in wealth coincides with what some economists are calling a K-shaped recovery, with the rich regaining their footing while poorer Americans struggle with lost wages and jobs.

The wealth of the nation's billionaires rose to $3.88 trillion as of October 13, a jump of $931 billion from March, an analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness and the Institute for Policy Studies, two left-leaning groups, found. That's almost twice the $2.1 trillion in wealth held by the bottom half of the U.S. population, or about 165 million people, they added.
Other billionaires whose fortunes have risen during the pandemic include Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates, whose wealth has jumped 20% to $118 billion since March, and Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg, with an 85% gain to $101.2 billion, the analysis found.

Much of the billionaire wealth spike stems from a rise in the stock market since March, with investors betting that the economy would rebound once stay-at-home orders lifted. But the recovery tide hasn't lifted all boats, with low-income workers struggling to regain their footing.

"It shows how delinked the stock market is from the real economy and the experience of most people," Chuck Collins of the Institute for Policy Studies and a co-author of the report, told CBS MoneyWatch. "I would argue that it has a social cost [because] it undermines the solidarity we need to get through the pandemic."


So the people who demand the lockups, the tightening of the grip on the plebs , the censoring of anything not on their schedule, are never adversely affected by the policies they promote, indeed they tend to benefit from them.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 21 2020, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

You could of course ask him to pay for his meals, or the electricity he uses playing games ....

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 21 2020, 02:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

ALK lagging all my other goldies.
PE still above 40, lots more sellers than buyers.
Will probably keep lagging.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 21 2020, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

It was only Dec 14th I said
QUOTE
ASM, the gift that just keeps on giving.
Approaching 5 bucks now.
Just sitting back enjoying the ride

Well here we are 8 days later and ASM has gone through 6 bucks.
The punters just can't seem to get enough.
Still holding on though.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 21 2020, 12:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Gold approaching 2500 in AUD once again, Silver having a boost and now approaching USD26.
No reason for this run not to keep right on going.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 20 2020, 08:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

My apologies for the rather poor typing of that last post.
I have now switched my view on the IMAC to very large fonts.
Now, I can actually see and read what I have just typed.
May not result in any better sense being made.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 20 2020, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
Yesterday we asked if it was time to start worrying about food inflation while discussing recent notes by both Goldman and SocGen's Albert Edwards, who highlighted the current burst in food inflation across the globe and especially emerging markets, pointing out troubling similarities to the period of soaring food inflation in late 2010 - sparked by QE2 - and which culminated with the Arab Spring which led to numerous governments being toppled across the MENA region.
In his conclusion, Edwards urged readers to "keep a very close eye as to whether we see a repeat of the 2010/11 surge in food prices" because "on the 10th anniversary of the start of the Arab Spring, and with poverty having already been made much worse by the pandemic, another food price bubble could well be the straw to break the very angry camel’s back."

In this context it becomes immediately clear why the topic of inflation is as much about politics (and geopolitics) as it is about economics and capital markets (we will spare a discussion here of why the CPI is purposefully distorted to stay as low as possible - readers can catch up here, here and here), and according to many analysts the biggest risk for record stock prices is a burst higher in inflation.

It's also why so many establishment economists are desperate to convince both markets and consumers (and perhaps, themselves) that despite surging food, housing, education and healthcare costs (and stagnant wages)..... deflation will dominate (we will have more to say on the topic of inflation in a subsequent report).

One such hot take comes this morning from UBS' chief economist Paul Donovan (who as a reminder was suspended by UBS over his "Chinese pigs" comment last year), who argues that there is no inflation and consumers are just imagining it.


I guess if consumers were all like Paul Donovan, in that they are extremely well paid, didn't lose any income during Covid, and have sufficient income to invest in the stockmarket, his statements would be true.
Butunlike the lucky Paul, there are millions of people who struggle to put enough food on the table. For them, education, health care, rent, food, utility prices, transport and clothing take up all their meagre income. So any increases for them are magnified.. As can be seen from THIS graph, for them inflation is real.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 20 2020, 12:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The cots are probably not thinking this through.
I suspect that the EU,. especially the French, will be happy to foment the idea that Scotland becomes independant, becauase
(a) it weakens the UK size wise,
(b) makes the ability of th UK to control its borders that little bit more difficult.
© it will give French Fisherpersons acess to the North Sea fishing grounds offf dcotland (currently a stocking point in Brexit negotiations).
(d) Similarly for North Sea oil and Gas. Who would own it, get royalties etc.

The French would be happy to see heaps of those troublesome North African refugees that hang around the French ports trying to get to England, be able to get to Scotland instead, and give the English another headache in keeping them out of its borders.
But long term, Scotland will not have the same issues as the Spain, Greece, Italy Portugal etc where the Euro will increase costs significantky, without the ability to deflate, change interest rates etc.
Scotland does not have enough industry and retail to support themselves, and will struggle wore than they might by staying in the EU

All in all, I would estimate they would be worse off.

Just my opinion of course.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 19 2020, 03:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

triage said
QUOTE
"It seems that it is a common thread for NSW authorities to overstate their abilities."


You can swap the NSW bit for just about any other government, state, federal or local.
All have a deep and fundamental level of overconfidence in their abilities at just about anything, except perhaps for making life as easy as possible for themselves.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 19 2020, 03:51 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Pat cummins gets to 150 wickets in his 31st test.
Imagine how many he would have if he did not lose out all those years to injury.
Only Clarrie Grimmet amongst the Oz bowlers got there quicker.
Grimmet, Lille and Cumins, all around the 5 wickets per match.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 18 2020, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Those of us interested in things a little on the older side, may find the following archelogical type offerings a useful source of study.
Stoned

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 18 2020, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Well, that was quick.
India lose 4 wickets for 11 runs in 4.1 overs.
Went down to check the mail, I get back and its all over.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 18 2020, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Really surprised no one has posted in this stock.
Pretty stable, good dividend, abd Almost up 100% since its low in the early COVID sell off.
PE is a little high at 17, but it has a few friends there.
Looking to add this stock if it has a retrace below 45
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 18 2020, 09:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Howdy EB, I think they name the Swiss as currency manipulators because of the constant intervention of the Swiss bank in buying and selling reserves to keep the Franc down.

Big deal I say, tell me a country that doesn't??

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 17 2020, 08:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Hoping that the AUD Vs USD can get to 80 cents.
Now above 76, so is on the march.
Will be buying a few thou USD as a hedge, or as spending money to the US if international travel ever gets going.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 17 2020, 08:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

On a similar note to theone below, comes an equally bizarre outcome from a US court.
From ZeroHedge

QUOTE
A California sheriff is refusing to comply with a judge’s order to release 1,800 inmates from Orange County jails, including individuals who have been imprisoned for murder, due to the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic.County Superior Court Judge Peter Wilson on Friday ordered the release of 50 percent - or 1,858 inmates out of 3,716 - to curb the transmission of COVID-19, the disease caused by the CCP virus.

“I have no intention of releasing any of these individuals from my custody,” said Sheriff Don Barnes, pushing back against the order. “We are going to file an appeal and we’re going to fight it and if the judge has any intent of releasing any one of these individuals, he will have to go through line by line, name by name, and tell me which ones he is ordering released.”Barnes told “Fox & Friends” that he has no intention of releasing the inmates back into the community, saying he believes they pose a “serious threat.”

Wilson’s order arose from a lawsuit filed in April by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed on behalf on inmates that sought to protect the Orange County Jail’s most vulnerable.

“Public safety does not just mean crime,” ACLU’s Jacob Reisburg said, defending Wilson’s ruling.

“Public safety also means, is there a hospital bed open if you get sick? And if there’s a massive outbreak in the jail, which this depopulation order is trying to avoid, there will not be hospital capacity in Orange County for people on the outside who get COVID.”

Barnes explained that to date, some 1,400 low-level offenders have already been released since March. The remaining inmates are “serious offenders,” he said.

“Of the medically vulnerable, 90 of them are in custody for murder or attempted murder, 94 for child molestation,” Barnes added.

Wilson’s order followed reports of a recent surge in cases in the county jail. The sheriff on Friday announced an outbreak with 138 cases, which jumped to 416 by Monday. Barnes, however, noted that the facility had recently begun to test all individuals, including asymptomatic patients.


Yeah, that should work well.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 17 2020, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Seeing as the China The Monster thread has been turned into a climate thread, I thought I had better stick this here.
China's aim to have the Yuan/renmimbi replace the dollar as the worlds reserve currency will stumble as long as the opaque control mechanisms of the CCP keep fooling with the levers.
From Zero hedge

QUOTE
Beijing has avoided being named a currency manipulator by the Trump administration. But the conclusion comes with a big yellow flag that may come back to haunt China.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday kept China on the watch list in the last currency report of the Trump administration, while slapping the manipulator tag on Vietnam and Switzerland. It urged Beijing to “improve transparency” in its currency management - in particular the role state-owned banks play in the foreign exchange market. It noted state-owned banks have sold the yuan, even as the PBOC appears to have refrained from intervening.

The Treasury pointed out that China’s balance-of-payments number doesn’t seem to add up. China’s goods and service surplus surged to a record $132 billion in the second quarter, and the country also attracted stock and bond inflows. But its foreign reserves added only $18 billion during the period.

“While intervention proxies do not provide definitive evidence that the PBOC intervened in foreign exchange markets over the review period, this issue warrants further investigation,” said the report. “In particular, the small scale of foreign reserve accumulation relative to China’s substantial trade and portfolio inflows in the second quarter of 2020, coupled with the RMB’s relative stability over the same time period, raises concerns.”

It’s not just the Trump administration. The apparent mismatch also caught the eye of Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who was tapped to work on Joe Biden’s transition team last month.

In a report on the CFR website in September, Setser noted that the pace of foreign asset accumulation of China’s state banking system increased “dramatically” in the second quarter.

“The signs of possible hidden intervention are still mostly whispers that speak most loudly only to those who have spent a long time with the data,” Setser wrote. “But if current trends continue, I would expect that they will start to shout when the data for the full year becomes available - as the both the rising Chinese surplus and ongoing bond inflows will raise the size of the offsetting outflow to a level that is going to be hard to hide.”

To be sure, there may be some other explanation for the balance-of-payment puzzle. For instance, Chinese exporters may have parked their dollar revenue overseas, so not all of the trade surplus translates into foreign-currency inflows. The so-called “errors and omissions” also point to capital flight from illegal channels, offsetting the trade surplus.

But the bottom line is that “China’s balance of payments data raise more questions than answers at the moment,” as Mark Williams of Capital Economics puts it. There needs to be a bit more transparency on state banks’ activities in the currency market. On that point, the Trump administration may have a valid argument.


it reinforces the points made in the other thread before it got hijacked about the lack of any semblance of reliability to the statistics put out by CCP.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 16 2020, 04:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

And its happy 250th Birthday to Ludwig van Beethoven.
Arguably the worlds greatest classical composer, but he had afew mates who weere close.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 16 2020, 04:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The problem is, as always, that there are no ready made replacements.
Opening batspersons require a sound technique, good judgement, patience, the ability to cash in on any bad balls that come your way, and the ability to rotate the strike regularly enough to deny the bowlers a rhythm.
It was bad enough having to replace Warner, but then the next best opener gets sconned(again!) , and you are two down.
One of the incumbents is so out of form its not funny.
The only other opener in the squad is Marcus Harris, but although he made some big scores when the tracks were flat, he has hardly set the world on fire.
So where are all the other openers?
Most of them will be playing grade cricket, mainly because of the ridiculous circus that is the BBL.
I have sat thru two games so far, and each time I have had to mute the sound to stop the drivel from so called commentators.
To me they sound like a couple of half pissed blokes at the pub.
Its just manufactured entertainment. Maybe all the colour and movement may be great for some, but for me its just not cricket.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 16 2020, 02:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Pass
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 15 2020, 07:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

For such a large producer, its surprising there is no more commentary on this one.
The upcoming merger with Saracen will make the merged entity one of the biggest in the world, and the second biggest producer in OZ after NCM
I probably need to pay a bit more attention to this one and SAR.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 15 2020, 10:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

As H said
QUOTE
I do give the man credit as one hell of a salesman.


After having given California the Bird and shifting to Texas with a few of his contemporaries (see Musk joins the Exodus to Texas ), he is now asking his workers to volunteer to work rather than be paid.
From CNBC

QUOTE
Tesla will shut down production lines for its high-end, but older, electric vehicles -- the Model S sedan and Model X SUV -- for 18 days beginning on December 24th, according to an email to factory employees seen by CNBC.
In the period ending September 30, 2020, Tesla reported that about 11% of its vehicle deliveries were Model S and X cars, and the rest were Model 3 and Model Y.
Employees working on the lines were told they were being given a full week of pay for the forced time off, but were encouraged to seek shifts working for, or even volunteering in, other parts of the business for the remaining unpaid days.Tesla informed employees in its Fremont, California, factory on Friday that its Model S and Model X electric vehicle production lines will close from December 24th to January 11th, according to an email seen by CNBC.

Employees working on those lines were offered a full week of pay to cover one of the two and a half weeks of the shutdown, along with a few paid holidays. They were asked to take 5 unplanned and unpaid days off, but have the option to try to find work in other areas of the factory during those days.

They were also encouraged to “volunteer” to help make electric vehicle deliveries to customers during the shut down.


Don't know why more companies don't ask their employees to Volunteer to work without pay, gotta be a winner!

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 15 2020, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

There are the odd idea that to some people seem like pure genius, but to others look like a lotential train wreck.
Heres one that springs to mind.
From Judicial Watch
QUOTE
In a curious twist, a “reformed” criminal hired by the District of Columbia’s chief legal officer to help curb violence has been arrested and charged with murder. The case involves a taxpayer-funded public safety program known as Cure the Streets launched by D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine to reduce gun violence by treating it as a disease that can be interrupted and stopped from spreading. Cure the Streets typically hires men and women with criminal histories as violence interrupters because they know first-hand about the challenges that residents of crime-infested communities live with. Racine, who was reelected to a second term in 2018, says the transformed criminals hired by his program perform community-driven public safety work that can avoid using police.

Here is how they carry out the task, according to Racine’s office: By interrupting potentially violent conflicts because they have relationships and influence within targeted neighborhoods. Violence interrupters “engage with the community to learn about brewing conflicts and resolve them peaceably before they erupt in violence,” the program’s website states. Violence interrupters also identify and treat individuals at high risk for involvement with violence by meeting with them and implementing individualized risk reduction plans. “They also help connect participants with needed services, such as housing, counseling and employment assistance, and develop action plans for a positive future.” Finally, the D.C. Attorney General claims violence interrupters mobilize communities to change norms by engaging residents, local businesses, community leaders and faith leaders to work with high-risk individuals to reduce violence. “CTS works with these partners to organize forums and public events where residents can gather and interact safely without fear of conflict and violence,” the D.C. government website claims. It is not clear what impact Cure the Streets is having on violent crime in the District, but the Metropolitan Police Department reports that homicides are up 20% from last year.

I like that phrase, Violence Interrupters.
Has a ring to it.
Mickj
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 15 2020, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Started buying up gold stocks again this morning.
Most of my watched goldies are down over 35%.
The reasons gold took off have not changed, indeed they have probably grown stronger.
Since mid 2019 when things got really strong, more CB's (including Australia) have gone down the QE route, and those who had already done so, piled even further debt on their economy.
The us is heading for further civil unrest, China is flexing its muscles, The EU is going to screw the UK, and of course more and more countries are going down the climate emergency path.
And of course we still have that pesky corona virus making life difficult.
Gold and its producers/explorers may well drop further, but in the long run it will go up.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 15 2020, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The announced closure due to to CVOVID 19 of the worlds biggest Uranium mine Cameco, announced yesterday has caused a spike in Uranium prices, and hence stocks.
It may explain why ERA had a 25% increase yesterday.
Bit surprising considering the co has until January 2021 , a mere two months away, to terminate mining .
at the JAbiru uranium mine.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2020, 10:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Well there ya go.
I didn't know that!
mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2020, 04:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From todays OZ

QUOTE
The use of manual data entry processes until part-way through Victoria‘s second wave of coronavirus “meant that the system for contact tracing and recording of testing was not fit to deal with any escalation of cases and led to significant errors,” a state parliamentary inquiry has found.

The Legislative Council Legal and Social Issues Committee found that “greater transparency” from the Andrews government and ”a willingness to acknowledge and take responsibility for failings” would increase public trust and confidence in Victoria‘s contact tracing and testing regime.Victoria‘s Department of Health and Human Services had just 57 people working in the state’s public health team when the COVID-19 pandemic began, and less funding in the 2019-20 budget than was provided in 2016-17, prompting public health experts to warn in July that Victoria’s was the worst-resourced health system in Australia.


57 people working in the states public health team.
Daniel Andrews at last count had 63 Advisors working for him in his office.
Pity one of them did not advise him to improve the public health department.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2020, 01:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

A fire has been lit under LIT.
Big spike today.
Have no idea why.
Bought some for a whizz.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2020, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Gold,Goats and Guns (what a great moniker).

QUOTE
The big worry among the bitcoin perma-bears is the threat of government "making it illegal"...
The latest bogeyman on this front is none other than U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Rumors float that he’s considering outlawing ‘self-custody wallets,’ in effect confiscating the private keys of everyone’s cryptos.

In a Twitter-thread, the chief executive [of Coinbase Brian Armstrong] said that his firm “heard rumors” about the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s plans to introduce fresh rules for “self-custody wallets” by the end of his term.

The open nature of cryptocurrencies allows anyone to create a private wallet by downloading third-party software on their computers/smartphones or through hardware devices that store digital assets. These types of self-custodial solutions come cheaper than traditional financial services — and they ensure privacy.
Those rumors are apparently valid since Mnuchin received a letter from four Congressmen imploring him not to do such a monumentally stupid thing.
Davidson et.al. make the very salient point that a move like this would be crippling to the burgeoning cryptocurrency, decentralized finance world.

It’s a stunningly well-written letter that shows a level of understanding about crypto that one simply wouldn’t expect from a Congressman. But, hey, I’ll take the pleasant surprise.

Now, by the same token, Davidson is talking to one of the ultimate oligarchs holding one of the most powerful offices in the world. Mnuchin, like the rest of the world-be world governors, sees the threat to central-bank issued currencies and doesn’t like the competition.

So many who have argued that Bitcoin would eventually ‘just be made illegal’ have done so on, at best, sophomoric grounds, ignoring the practicality of how the internet functions, etc.

I’ve already addressed these arguments in the past, c.f. Bitcoin vs. The Man published back in August.

With Stock to Flow rising, meaning the rate of inflation is falling while the total hoarded pile is rising, marginal demand can easily push prices to levels that make even the most ardent bitcoin bull blush.

Governments are, as I said earlier, in a Catch-22. If they ban bitcoin demand goes underground, people simply buy and hold it. They acquire it however they can and new technologies come in (decentralized exchanges) come in to replace current ones (Coinbase).

If they don’t ban it then they allow the demand for it as a store of value and financial asset to flourish. It exists in a gray-area where you can use it but you really don’t want to. That allows another relief valve for capital to exit the dying debt-based system and wait for the storm to pass.

Either way, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies win.

The Davidson Four’s letter acknowledges this basic understanding. Trying to make holding your private keys to your cryptos illegal will simply drive capital away from the U.S.

Now, if Mnuchin is a good little Davos Man than that is exactly what he must do because that’s their plan, man.

If he isn’t and he’s just your garden-variety clueless regulator then making such a move would be another classic case of what I’ll now call the Melinda Gates Syndrome — We Didn’t Think Through the Economic Implications of our Actions.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle, I’m sure.

But like I said at the outset, this is all a bogeyman in the end. If Mnuchin falls into the authoritarian trap of trying to ban ‘self-custody wallets’ he will set off two firestorms.

The first is to drive even more of the existing stock of bitcoins underground, and likely into privacy coins or onto distributed exchanges where the capital will never be found nor clawed back.

That will ultimately drive the price straight through the $20,000 level and set it on a path to much higher, headline-grabbing levels.

The second will be to re-engage the normies because of this who have already began rushing into this space in a big way especially after the insanity of 2020.


So, while Mnuchin may make it really difficult for people to get their coins off of Coinbase or any other approved KYC/AML-compliant on-ramp, most people really won’t care.

And all he’s doing is making the people who are building the systems to challenge his “Authoritah!” even more well-capitalized.

So, even if the worst comes to pass what will happen will not blunt the rise of the private currency markets.

Remember folks capital flows to where it is treated best. And if Mnuchin treats U.S. savers this poorly, which I expect him to try to do, then he will ensure Davidson’s predictions come true.

It is for this reason that he won’t dare do it. Because while this is being discussed at the highest levels of government everyday another major player on Wall St. takes the plunge into the world of Bitcoin.

This week it was Mass Mutual who put in another $100 million of its treasury into bitcoin. Even J.P. Morgan strategists are admitting what’s happening here.

In a note earlier in the week they noted:
Institutional investors flocking to bitcoin could put downward pressure on gold in the longer-term, according to a group of JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

In a Tuesday note, they said that bitcoin’s near-term price is “skewed to the downside,” while gold looks more positive. However, they see the medium- to longer-term trending in the opposite direction.

“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced,” JPMorgan said. “If this medium to longer term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural flow headwind over the coming years.”

its part of a much longer article that is well worth the read.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2020, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

ASM, the gift that just keeps on giving.
Approaching 5 bucks now.
Just sitting back enjoying the ride.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2020, 08:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Scientists are in some ways like lawyers.
In the same way you can always find a lawyer somewhere to argue that black is white, you can come up with scientists who will argue just about any position.
There are scientists who will argue that the concept of creationism is perfectly ok with science.
It doesn't make any of them right.
You weigh up the evidence and come to a conclusion.
Sometimes your conclusions are incorrect, sometimes your evidence is interpreted incorrectly, and sometimes your evidence is just plain fraud.
And then sometimes new evidence comes along to contradict the first.
But you have to real evidence.
Models aint evidence.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 14 2020, 08:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From OIl Price Newscomes the news that China has joined the Russians, Europeans and Americans in creating plasma conditons hotter than the sun in the search for elusive positive net energy controlled Fusion reactors.

QUOTE
China’s HL-2M Tokamak reactor, located in the southwest of China in Sichuan province, uses ultra-powerful magnets to create and fuse hot plasma at temperature over 150 million degrees Celsius, a mind-blowing temperature “approximately ten times hotter than the core of the sun.” The tokamak that powered up for the first time last week was just the biggest and latest version of a project that China has been working on for almost 15 years now. "The development of nuclear fusion energy is not only a way to solve China's strategic energy needs, but also has great significance for the future sustainable development of China's energy and national economy," said the People's Daily, China’s largest news group and an official news outlet of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party.

Instead of competing with the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), an international nuclear fusion research project located in the south of France which is currently the world’s largest, China plans to work in collaboration with the project. ITER is still under development, and is slated to come online in 2025, when it could very well be the first major step toward commercializing nuclear fusion (despite the project’s whopping $22.5 billion price tag).

While it’s promising for the global energy future that there are so many promising fusion projects underway, and even more promising that there are plans in place for continued international scientific cooperation, it’s likely that China’s forays into fusion are more for the country’s own energy security than a vision of a global green energy utopia. China shocked the world earlier this fall with the scale and ambition of the country’s newest decarbonization goals - President Xi doubled down on China’s previous commitments and proclaimed that his fuel-hungry nation will reach peak emissions in just a decade and go on to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve this goal, China has leaned heavily on nuclear and renewable energies, but it’s more than likely that this, too, is more related to geopolitics and energy security than concerns about global warming. Regardless of the motivation, however, bringing down China’s carbon footprint is a win for all of us, and even more so if it can do that without leaving behind radioactive nuclear waste.


Successful fusion reactors really would be a world game changer.
But we have been waiting a long time for it.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 13 2020, 05:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The good Professor has not as yet provided any proof for his claims.
Indeed, Number of papers have been produced that argue thst it is unlikely that any similarities with HIV are a deliberate input from creative researchers.
The artile HERE
Argues that sections showing similarity are present in many different genomic sequences, are not HIV specific..
It is also important to consider that the initial claims resulted from modelling, not from any physical proof.

QUOTE
Lack of the definite origin of 2019-nCoV has led to speculation that 2019-nCoV might be derived from genetic manipulation or even for the purpose of use as a bioweapon. This notion has been fully debunked in the media. A recent informally presented report, however, showed that 2019-nCoV had four insertions in the spike glycoprotein gene that is critical for the virus to enter the target cells when compared to other coronaviruses [8]. It was claimed that these inserts were either identical or similar to the motifs in the highly variable (V) regions (V1, V4 and V5) in the envelope glycoprotein or in the Gag protein of some unique HIV-1 strains from three different countries (Thailand, Kenya and India). Together with the structure modelling analysis, the authors speculated that these motif insertions sharing similarity with HIV-1 proteins could provide an enhanced affinity towards host cell receptors and increase the range of host cells of 2019-nCoV. This study implies that 2019-nCoV might be generated by gaining gene fragments from the HIV-1 genome.

Current report conducted careful examination of the sequences of 2019-nCoV, other CoV viruses and HIV-1 as well as GenBank database. Our results demonstrated no evidence that the sequences of these four inserts are HIV-1 specific or the 2019-nCoV viruses obtain these insertions from HIV-1. First, the results of blast search of these motifs against GenBank shows that the top 100 identical or highly homologous hits are all from host genes of mammalian, insects, bacterial and others. There are only a few hits on coronaviruses, but none of them are HIV-1 related. Blast against viral sequence database also showed these insertion sequences widely exist in all kinds of viruses from bacteriophage, influenza, to giant eukaryotic viruses (Table 1). More hits were found for coronaviruses and a few also hit on HIV-1 sequences than the search against the entire database (Table 1). However, while the 100% match between the insertion 1 and 2 sequences and the HIV sequences were found in 19 entries, the matches between the insertion 3 and 4 sequences and HIV-1 sequences were rather poor (from 42% to 88%). Moreover, the insertion 4 sequence ambiguously hit multiple different genes (gag, pol and env) in the HIV-1 genome, suggesting that similarities (as low as 42%) between them are too low to be reliable. Search these four insertion sequences against HIV-1 Sequence Database (https://www.hiv.lanl.gov/components/sequence/HIV/search/search.html) yielded similar results. Sequences that completely match the insertion 3 and 4 sequences were not found in any HIV-1 sequences. This clearly shows that these insertioin sequences are widely present in living organisms including viruses, but not HIV-1 specific. All these regions in HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein are highly variable with many large insertions and deletions, indicating that they are not essential for biological functions of HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein. The detection of completely matched sequences of 1 and 2 insertions in only a few HIV-1 strains demonstrated that four insertions are very rare or not present among tens of thousands of natural HIV-1 sequences. This also explains why four insertion homolog sequences could only be independently found in different HIV-1 genomes [8]. Because of their poor identities to and rareness in the HIV-1 sequences, HIV-1 could not be the source for those insertion sequences in the 2019-nCoV genome.


It may well be true that the in the end some proof is found that shows the deliberate insertion of these gene sequences into the "created Virus".
However, the evidence is currently going mostly the other way.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 12 2020, 09:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The decisons by the victorian Government to give carte blanche approval for Big Law firms to be creative with class actions was always a bit of a moot point.
Class actions are one way for the the mums and dads to get back at the big boys is certainly a worthy act to strive for.
But the problem is always the law of unintended consequences.
Janets biggest beef is really that the majority of the big law firms are labour oriented and it just gives the opportunity for more money to roll in as (tax deductible) donations.
But there are just as many firms donating to the liberal side of things, so that really doesn't wash.
But what really took my eye was the way "new financial prioducts" are being created.
the same sort of financial products that the big US banks were pushing that brought on the last financial crisis.

From The OZ

QUOTE
Securitisation of litigation sounds terribly niche, but we have been here before. When investment banks bundled up home mortgages into exotically named collateralised debt obligations, investors couldn’t get enough. Then the market exploded, setting off the global financial crisis.

Securitising lawsuits is in its early stages. In September, UK company Forbes Ventures announced plans to securitise its litigation funding assets. A few years ago, Burford Capital, a big US litigation funder that also operates in Australia, tested the securitisation waters after it acquired, for less than $US18m, a legal claim from a plaintiff against the Argentinian government. Between December 30, 2016, and June 24, 2019, Burford sold 38.5 per cent of its interests in four tranches for a total of $US236m.

Liam Hennessy, a regulatory specialist with Gadens law firm, tells The Australian that “implies an approximate market value of $US613m, and is a multiple of 34 times Burford’s purchase price”.

“It is deeply unsettling when you stop to consider how these sales are being priced … and the lessons that came out from the GFC in relation to the comparatively much simpler mortgage-backed products.”

Just as mortgage-backed securities created dangerous risks, securitisation of this latest asset class of lawsuits will require wiser heads than Hanson-Young, and less conflicted ones than those in the Labor Party, to ensure naive plaintiffs are not pillaged and the economy is not plundered.


Note that in the Burford case, the 18million was a CLAIM.
The case had not been settled, it had not even gone to court.
Talk about creativity!
Lawyers, only one rung above bankers in the scumbags of the earth stakes.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 12 2020, 09:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

And now, a word from the anti BTC folk.
I have no skin in the game, I don't own Virtual Currencies (yet), so don't have an opinion one way or another (yet).
From Zero Hedge

QUOTE
When Bitcoin launched in 2009, it promised to usher in a new era in digital finance. The decentralized nature of the currency offered investors the vision of transparency, security and, above all, profitability. The fact that the chains of onerous regulations and perpetual volatility no longer shackled crypto currency investors, meant freedom to pursue efficiencies on digital exchanges unlike that existing in traditional stock or currency exchanges.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin and many of its peer cryptos have failed to deliver. Perhaps it’s time to take a fresh look at how investors view cryptocurrencies as part of an investment portfolio.
Since their inception, cryptocurrencies have had their share of woes. Misfortunes, misadventure, missteps and regulatory hurdles have all conspired to dissuade investors from making cryptos a mainstream of their portfolios – like ETFs or Mutual Funds.

Several years ago, hackers stole 740,000 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $3 billion today, from one the first Bitcoin exchanges, Mt. Gox. Cryptocurrency hacks and heists haven’t yet stopped since then. Last year (2019) was one of the worst years for cryptocurrency security. Hackers struck 12 major crypto exchanges that year, making away with more than $292 million in investor funds.
Sadly, unlike Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), crypto investors don’t enjoy any form of deposit protection. Once a hacker makes off with your money, more likely than not, it’s gone forever!

In September 2020, Singapore-based KuCoin confirmed that its security had been breached and hackers stole over $150 million worth of ERC-20 tokens. As recently as Nov 2020, a cryptocurrency exchange, Liquid, confirmed that it was hacked. Fortunately for investors, the exchange reported no funds missing – just personal information and “documentation”. Sadly though, the fate of Italian exchange Altsbit was much worse earlier on in the year. It lost 1,066 Komodo tokens and 283,375 Verus coins combined in value of $70,000.

There are other stories that don’t end as badly as those mentioned above – such as the hacking incident with Axion (more on them later), another player in the crypto business. Though the hackers – through an “insider attack” - did steal over $500,000 from the company’s liquidity pool, most of it was recovered shortly through community involvement and the company’s own actions and within a week the community managed to exceed the stolen amount and later used pooled ETH to rebuild liquidity pool and relaunch the project.

Still, traditional crypto exchanges definitely seem to act as hacker magnets!

Because of its decentralized nature, lawmakers and financial regulators aren’t able to monitor or regulate a cryptocurrency the way they do conventional (FIAT) currencies. Keeping that unique trait in mind, in early 2018 the U.S. Federal Trade Commission put out a dire warning to prospective crypto investors. The regulator warned investors that cryptos aren’t backed by the government; they aren’t protected from hacks and scams, and they are highly volatile for cautious investors’ liking.

The message from the government is clear: If you value your savings, stay away from cryptocurrency investments!

Perhaps the wrong evolution of cryptos has finally forced central bankers the world over to sit up and take note of investors’ plight. Even as lawmakers seek to thwart Facebook’s digital currency, many central banks are looking seriously at launching their own. In October 2020, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), in league with seven other central bankers - the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, Sveriges Riksbank, the Swiss National Bank – released their vision for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

The hope is that because CBDC’s are issued under the protection of governments, investors are more likely to flock to a CBDC than ones that aren’t closely regulated. This appears to be a preemptive strike on any plans that tech titans might have to evolve into crypto czars.

Perhaps the last straw was when social media giant Facebook sought to enter the cryptocurrency business. So taken aback were lawmakers of the potential (adverse) influence the tech giant might have on investor’s lives, if they let it go ahead with it’s plan for Libra, that CEO Mark Zuckerberg met a wall of regulatory scrutiny. After intense grilling by the U.S. Senate, Facebook walked-back some of its bold ambitions.

It’s reported that Libra, rebranded to Diem, is now in the works. However, given the stigma that’s already attached to its prior incarnation, and with cryptocurrencies in general, it remains to be seen how Libra.2.0 fares with regulators. Either way, when it comes to safe, stable and credible crypto investing, it would seem as though investors didn’t have too many viable alternatives.

Until now

A new cryptocurrency promises to revolutionize the way investors look at digital investment assets. It’s called Axion, and it’s structured completely differently than the conventional crypto available on crypto exchanges today. And with it, investors don’t need to buy and hold the cryptocurrency, and time their sell decisions – like you would with Bitcoin or its peers. In fact, how this new entrant into the world of cryptos work is remarkably like how Certificates of Deposits (CDs) operate – only with a higher (much higher – 8%) interest rate.

That’s music to the ears of income investors!

Investors buy digital Axion tokens and contract to hold them for a specific period. By penalizing investors for premature withdrawal of their stake, Axion is able to put a damper on the kind of volatility experienced by many of its sister cryptocurrencies. And, it’s built-in “long-term holding bonus” feature encourages (and rewards!) investors who hold on to their tokens over the longer-term. This is exactly how CDs reward long-term holders: The further down the maturity curve you remain, the greater the interest rate is!

Next year (Jan 2021), the new digital exchange will support a credit card feature. By linking a Visa credit card to their crypto accounts, Axion investors may transact just as they would through their regular bank accounts. This gives it an advantage over peer plastic – which are typically prepaid debit cards, and gives investors more of a “regular bank-like” feel.

And that’s yet another crypto rethink that investors are likely to reward, going forward.


It seems that the finance industry knows no bounds when it comes to creative ways of making money (for themselves).

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 12 2020, 08:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

jeez Plastic, do a bit of research will ya.
The reason HIV is a problem because they use a small part of the HIV virus as a vector in the vaccine.
The vector shows up in tests for HIV giving a wrong poitive to the disease.
It was not in the original COVID 19 virus.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 11 2020, 07:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

So, who do they put in as his replacement?
At the moment, Marcus harris is looking more likely to play than Burns, but who else will open?
So they opt for Pucovski, stick with Burns, bring back Marsh or Usman Kawaja or go back to Renshaw??
Decisions, decisions.
Whatever they do, it will be greeted with ridicule by someone.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 11 2020, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From The Age

QUOTE
Uber's sale of its aviation division has raised questions about its plans for up to 1000 commercial flying taxis in Melbourne from 2023.

In an abrupt change of direction the US tech giant this week sold its autonomous driving car division to Aurora and its "aerial mobility" division Uber Elevate (also known as Uber Air) to startup Joby Elevation.

Uber agreed to pay Joby $US75 million ($100 million) to take over its operations that sought to make flying taxis and helicopter rides a reality.


Geez, they pay some startup company $75 million to take it off their hands , then call it a sale???
the PR guys at UBER must have all once worked for a government department.

This was never going to get off the ground anywhere(excuse the pun).

Perhaps in a third world country where are no existing cars or planes to speak of, it may have worked.
But who would need UBER air taxis in a country that poor?

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 11 2020, 07:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

A bit surprised this news did not make a bigger splash in MSM.
'FromYAhoo and Bloombergs

QUOTE
The federal government has canned a deal to buy tens of millions of doses of a potential coronavirus vaccine being developed in Australia.

The decision was made after the University of Queensland and biotechnology company CSL abandoned trials of their COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

CSL said in a statement that while phase 1 trials of the vaccine v451 amongst 216 participants showed it was safe, it had "following agreement with the Australian government" decided not to progress the trials.

The trials were abandoned after some participants returned false positive results for another illness - HIV.

"The phase 1 data showed the generation of antibodies directed towards the 'molecular clamp' component of the vaccine," CSL said on Friday.

"These antibodies interfere with certain HIV diagnostic assays.

CSL said blood samples from study participants were tested after vaccination and it was found that these molecular clamp antibodies did cause a false positive.

"Follow up tests confirmed that there was no HIV virus present, just a false positive on certain HIV tests," CSL said.

"There is no possibility the vaccine causes infection."

Won't help OZ or CSL's share price.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 10 2020, 05:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

So, what on earth would cause an entity to buy a bond with a negative interest yield?
I shakes me head.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Poll: The Banks
mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 10 2020, 04:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Perhaps you should view this video:
Paer from Thin air?

The problem is, with QE etc, there needs to be a counterparty. If it was so easy to just print money, everyone would be doing it.
As it is, when QE takes place, governments sell bonds to the CB to effectively print the money.
But those bonds have an interest component, as well as a capital component that needs to be paid back at maturity.
What is the equivalent in digital cash??
Why does the fact that the "printer" have to go through ever increasing level of difficulty to create each one make them more valuable?
Users have to have a level of intrinsic faith in a currency, either because of limited supply, ready acceptance, backing by some hard asset (gold) or central authority (RBA) for it to be workable.
The beauty of BITCOIN lies in its tamper proof ledger.
I am sticking to hard assets.
Buts thats a purely personal choice.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 10 2020, 12:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

QUOTE
but only for select few (instos and professionals)


Well that cuts me out!.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 06:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Just read this at Bloombergs

QUOTE
China’s state-backed coronavirus vaccine protected 86% of people against Covid-19 in trials conducted in the United Arab Emirates, state media there reported, giving credence to the quickly developed shot that China intends to distribute around the developing world.

The data was from trials that included 31,000 volunteers in the UAE, which found the vaccine was highly effective in preventing moderate and severe cases of Covid-19 and had no serious safety concerns, according to the report, which cited the country’s Ministry of Health and Prevention.


I find this a rather odd statement.
How did the testers know a patient did not get a case of covid that was severe or moderate??
Do they deliberately expose the patient to various strains of the disease that are more virulent?
And if they did, how do they know that a particular patient would have gone through a moderate versus severe case of the disease without the vaccine?

it just does not make sense.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 06:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The question is, what can IGO offer the entity that will (a) make the mine more efficient, and (b) help to fix whatever the "troubles" might be of the so called troubled mine.
Its all very well to "buy at the Bottom", but what can they do to make money out of the deal?
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Good call.
A good slips catcher is almost as important as a good keeper.
The Indians have shown that they are a little susceptible to the short ball, so having someonebehind the wicket who can catch will be paramount.
Probably got enough in the bowling department if we play 3 fast bowlers and Lyon.
Head, assuming he plays will get a few overs as will lambshanks.
Thats why i recon they will play Wade and head before Green.
He's a combatitve bugger, and has also been in good form.
Does not let the pressure get to him.
I would wait a bit before introducing Green.
But Green is the natural replacement for either Wade or head, just not yet.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Indexes should in Theory, give an indication to the market participants on the overall health of that market.
But sometimes, indexes can conceal as much information as they reveal.
Given that so much money (including bonuses) are riding on indeces reaching specific targets, there may be some pressure to "manipulate" the odd index.
From Wall street on Parade
There has been a lot of bullish talk about the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 30,000 for the first time in history. But the underpinnings of the bellwether Dow index look a lot less rosy.

QUOTE
Replacing three of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks on August 31 looked like a desperate move by S&P Dow Jones Indices, the folks that oversee that stock index. One of the stocks replaced, Exxon Mobil, had been a Dow component for 92 years, joining the Dow in 1928 under the name Standard Oil of New Jersey. Exxon was replaced with Salesforce, a company that only went public in 2004. Salesforce describes itself as a “customer relationship management platform,” explaining that “We help your marketing, sales, commerce, service and IT teams work as one from anywhere — so you can keep your customers happy everywhere.” If that sounds a little nebulous to you, it should. But the stock price has been on a rip for the past four years so Wall Street loves it.

The two other stocks in the Dow that were replaced on August 31 were the pharmaceutical giant, Pfizer, replaced with biotech company Amgen; and Raytheon Technologies, replaced by Honeywell International.

What might have prompted that radical shakeup in the Dow in August? As of August 19, five days before the announcement was released to the press, two-thirds of the 30 Dow components were in the red for the year.

We decided to take a look at where things would stand today if the August 31 shakeup in the Dow had not happened. It turns out that 13 of the pre-August 31 Dow 30 stocks, a remarkable 43 percent, are in the red year-to-date.

The declines are as follows, using the closing prices on December 31, 2019 through the closing prices on Monday, December 7, 2020. (The returns are based strictly on share price and do not include the reinvestment of dividends.)

Exxon -41.4

Boeing -26.9

Walgreen’s -28.0

Chevron -24.69

Raytheon Technologies -17.3

Intel -16.1

JPMorgan Chase -12.57

Merck -9.3

Cisco -7.5

IBM -6.96

Coca Cola -4.3

3M -3.6

Travelers -2.2

How have the three replacement stocks done? Salesforce and Honeywell are in the green year-to-date while Amgen is in the red.

The big secret in the Dow being able to march to a record 30,000 while many of its stock components lose serious ground is the share price of Apple, a Dow component. Since December 31, 2019 through its closing price on Monday, December 7, 2020, Apple has seen a 68.57 percent gain.

Unlike the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, which are weighted by the market cap of the individual stock components, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is price-weighted, meaning that the stock components with higher share prices are given greater weight in computing the index.

Apple was one of the highest-priced stocks in the Dow until it completed a 4-for-1 stock split at the end of August.


Another factor of course is how the index is constructed.
Its interesting to note the fact the DOW is price weighted, whereas the other indexes (including the OZ ASX/200) are market cap weighted.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 08:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

My grandkids have the ability to change the appearance of whoever is on your screen during messenger and facetime apps.
They have rabbit ears, wigs, butterflies etc on the faces.
Surely ZOOM would be able to alter the software to do something similar.

But instead of pretty things like fairies and butterflies the kids do, add colour to the cheeks, hide blemishes, take out the grey regrowth of the non dyed hair roots, make your teeth whiter etc etc.

Would have to be a winner!

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 9 2020, 07:59 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The cooking show stock in Trading halt.
Expecting a cap raising.
Wonder how much of a discount it will be at?
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 08:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Ed steer, like Chuck Butler, Ed Casey and quite a few others, have highlighted the manipulation of the Precious metals market by the "big 4" commercial traders.
In his latest blog (found HERE) ed steer highlights the fact that the net short positions in Gold is equivalent to 90 days of world production.
In the case of Silver, its 160 days.
How is it that this level of production can be sold short before the product is even out of the ground??
They must be so confident of an engineered takedown.
All this while virtually all central banks are flooding their markets with liquidity.
These are strange times indeed.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 07:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Maxwell was just reprieved by a noball in the T20.
How on earth does a spinner, a wrist spinner to boot, bowl a noball?
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 07:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Bloombergs

QUOTE
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is inching closer to becoming the first Wall Street bank with 100% ownership of its securities joint venture in China, paving the way for an aggressive expansion as the Asian nation opens its $50 trillion financial market wider to foreign firms.

The New York-based bank has started the process of getting clearance from regulators to take full control of Goldman Sachs Gao Hua and signed a definitive agreement with its partner to buy the 49% of the venture it doesn’t own, according to an internal memo. A Hong Kong-based spokesman at Goldman Sachs confirmed the contents.

The move will end Goldman Sachs’ 17-year collaboration with Beijing Gao Hua Securities and gives the firm free rein to pursue an expansive growth strategy that includes boosting its workforce in China to 600 and ramping up in asset and wealth management. Wall Street giants are rushing to gain a bigger foothold as China’s market opens, jostling to capture a share of profits that are estimated to swell to $47 billion in investment banking alone by 2026.

Full ownership “of our franchise on the mainland represents a significant commitment to and investment in China,” Chief Executive Officer David Solomon, President John Waldron and Chief Financial Officer Stephen Scherr said in the memo.

The internal announcement comes amid rising tension between China and the U.S., with sanctions being imposed on a string of Chinese officials and restrictions on investments. U.S. lawmakers have also started to question the push by big banks into China, which is counting on investments to help transform its export-led economy.

Others are also gunning for full ownership, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., which last month boosted its stake in its venture to 71%. JPMorgan has already obtained approval to take full ownership of a futures venture in the country.


I find this very instructive.
The mega banks obviously think that they will be able to achieve their aims in China, and that the incoming administration will be far more amenable to China than the Trump administration.
Well you can probably guarantee it. Given the impunity with which the commercial banks have acted in the past, I would fully expect that the ex commercial bankers coming into the administration will serve their previous masters well.
Policies and relationships will change so as to benefit the banks interests.
But then i am probably as guilty as plastic in my conspiracy theories.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 05:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Not too sure about that!
Pucovski has been hit in head (AGAIN), and had to retire hurt.
He was dropped early in the innings, and was damn lucky to survive a very adjacent LBW decision just before he got sconned.
He has been hit at least 5 times by short balls.
the guy has obvious weakness against it, and international players will exploit that weakness unmercifully.
Great technique otherwise, good powers of concentration, but he needs to sit down with someone like Ian Chappel and learn how to handle short pitched bowling.
He has to fix that up before he does permanent damage to his head, if has not done so already.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 03:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Vale Chuck Yeager.
Just heard Chuck Yeager died at the tender age of 97.
The first man to break the sound barrier, and an inspiration to many aspiring pilots.
He was probably more noted for the fact that he was the USAF instructor that taught all astronaust in the Moon landing program how to fly a plane properly.
Was lucky enough to meet the great man about 15 ears ago when I was at the pilot mecca, aka Oshkosh.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 02:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Tyler Durden from ZERO HEDGE
points a starnge oddity in recent trade figures between the USA and China.

QUOTE
Overnight, China reported its latest trade data for the month of November which was, in a word, blockbuster: exports accelerated sharply to 21.1% Y/Y (from 11.4% Y/Y) in October driven by a surge in covid-related exports, with sequential growth up to +5.1% month-on-month; Imports moderated slightly in November and grew 4.5% Y/Y (1.0% month-on-month non-annualized expansion), compared with the 4.7% Y/Y increase in October (although as Rabobank's Michael Every cautions, many of the imports were of soft commodities vs. higher value-added goods).But while the overall trade numbers were impressive, if not for positive reasons since China's export boom continues to be driven by covid-related demand - yes, the same covid that was unleashed by, well, China - what was most remarkable in the latest data set released by China's National Bureau of Statistics is that exports to the US surged 46.1% in US Dollar terms, putting the monthly bilateral surplus ($32.8bn) above levels observed at the end of 2019 (just as the US/China Phase 1 deal was being finalized); as BMO's Stephen Gallo writes, "From the perspective of that agreement, the US/China bilateral balance has been trending in the wrong direction (helped by the effects of COVID-19). Merchandise exports to the US, as a share of total exports, ended 2019 at 13.6%, but they were back to 17.6% as of November 2020."

In short, after the US made some headway in its trade war with Beijing, all that progress and more is now gone as Chinese net exports are steamrolling ahead... thanks to covid.

Yet here an interesting observation emerges: while the trade surplus with the US according to China Customs data indeed hit a record high, US Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows something quite different, and this discrepancy is shown in the chart below:
US TRADE DEFICITThis is, to say the least, strange: after all data is data, and when one using the same nominal amount of trade exports and imports between the two countries engaging in trade, one should - in theory at least - end up with the same trade surplus (and respectively deficit) number.

Alas, as the chart above shows, not only has that has not been the case for the past two decades, but curiously, after years of US data showing a larger bilateral deficit with China than the Chinese data shows a surplus with the United States (largely due to the so-called Hong Kong port effect which explains much of the discrepancy), this has reversed in the past few months when China’s reported exports to the United States have significantly exceeded reported U.S. imports (the exact opposite of the established pattern). This can be seen clearly in the chart below which is a zoomed in portion the bilateral trade balances shown above:
This phenomenon which has escalated drastically in recent months, was first pointed out by former Treasury official Brad Setser who pointed out the data discrepancy in an October blog post , writing that "there is no doubt there is a gap. In July 2018, China said it exported $41.6 billion to the United States, and the United States reported importing $47 billion from China. In July 2019, China said it exported $38.9 billion to the United States (down because of the tariffs), and the United States reported importing $41.4 billion from China. And in July 2020, China said it exported $43.7 billion to the United States, while the United States only reported importing $40.7 billion from China."

As a result, as Setser adds, "the answer to a lot of politically-salient questions—for example, is the bilateral trade deficit with China larger or smaller now than in 2016?—hinges on whether you use the U.S. or the Chinese data. "

If you look at the Chinese data, its current monthly surplus with the United States is at an all-time high for the months of July and August, topping its pre-trade war peaks by substantial margins

In the U.S. data, the July deficit with China and Hong Kong (adding in Hong Kong reduces the size of the deficit as the United States runs a surplus with HK) is only just above its 2016 levels.

Fast-forwarding two months to the latest December data only shows that this divergence has accelerated with the latest Chinese data showing yet another record surplus for the month of November.

To be sure, and as one can easily see in the charts above, the gap between China’s reported exports to the United States - red line - and reported U.S. imports - blue line - plus the larger deficit when reported from the U.S. side than the surplus on the Chinese side, has been a long-standing pattern. It reflects the previously discussed role of Hong Kong in U.S.-China trade, because as Setser explains, "a lot of what China records in its data as an export to Hong Kong historically has ended up in the U.S. data as an import from China, and a lot of what the United States reports as an export to Hong Kong has historically ended up in the Chinese data as an import from the United States."

What is novel here is the change in the pattern - the long established and well-understood discrepancy between the import and export side data has gone away.

The puzzle, as Setser wrote, "is why the sign on the discrepancy looks to be flipping." There are two possible explanations which immediately come to mind.
Chinese exporters might be overstating their exports, in general and to the United States. Overstating exports is a classic way of getting capital into a country with capital controls.

However, a simpler explanation is that the US tariffs have created a strong incentive for firms importing into the United States to go to some lengths to understate their imports from China. Thus, U.S. imports from China are now likely under-counted (which by implication holds the bilateral trade deficit down).

As Setser concludes, while "mapping one country’s import data to a partner’s export data" is a dull but exercise, "sometimes it yields interesting results. A similar exercise back in 2015—the Chinese current account surplus stopped tracking the goods balance—led me to look at whether the reported increase in tourism imports in the Chinese data was matched by a rise in the number of actual tourists (it wasn’t) and ultimately produced quite a good Fed paper." We are confident that economists looking at the growing discrepancy in trade data between the US and China will soon be busy coming up with their own theories, even if the real answer why this most critical trade relationship in a world where the US-China trade war has been the overriding theme for much of the past 4 years, will likely remain a mystery.


It could be a time lag thing, or could be just another example of the sort of bullshit statistics that seem to permeate thru the economic world these days.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 01:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Nah, thats for the FC Tokyo team.
The Scots don't really take Nips, they always have wee drams.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 12:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The mentals front man, Greedy Smith died anbout a year ago, but to everyone's surprise, one of their old hits from the 80's. "live it Up" is pushing Mariah carey into second place on the British Billboard charts.
From Todays OZ
QUOTE
Originally released in 1985, the single’s surprising chart resurgence has been led by fans of the Scottish football club Glasgow Rangers.On October 20, Live It Up was the uplifting soundtrack to a video posted on Twitter by fan group Union Bears celebrating Rangers defender Connor Goldson and goading fans of rival club Celtic.

The clip went viral, attracting nearly 350,000 views on Twitter alone, and the song has since become as an unofficial anthem for Rangers followers.

Since then, a social media campaign led by the hashtag #LiveItUpChristmasNumberOne is calling on Rangers fans to continue buying the song on iTunes in an attempt to reach No 1 on the British pop chart in the week of Christmas Day.


Those of us who watch the perennial Christmas Movie, "Love Actually", might see a parallel with the main theme of the movie as an aging rocker vies with Cliff Richards for the top Christmas song.

mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 12:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Yep, thats not a bad result.
Take the money and run.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 8 2020, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Always thought he was a better songwriter than performer.
Saw him perform twice.
Once in San Francisco in his early days and once at the MCG in his later years.
Neither was a terribly inspiring performance
He always seemed a little disinterested in the whole performance thing.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 7 2020, 04:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

With the Chinese banning coal imports from OZ, the Canadians have quickly stepped into the breach.
From Todays OZ
QUOTE
Canada’s coal miners are ramping up to take advantage of Australia’s poor relationship with its biggest trading partner, as outgoing Glencore boss Ivan Glasenberg says China is getting the coal it needs from other sources during the trade and diplomatic spat between Beijing and Canberra.

China’s informal bans on Australian coal cover both thermal and coking coal, but with energy coal prices rising as global economies rebound from the coronavirus crisis, its ban on coking coal has severely depressed the price of Australian-sourced material.

Industry sources say Chinese domestic prices sat at more than $US217 a tonne for premium coking coal last week, double the benchmark price of Australian coal.
That is probably unsustainable in the long term.

There is little doubt Canadian metallurgical coal miners are the major beneficiaries of the trade war in the short term — and perhaps in the longer term if China looks to develop alternatives to Australia’s Bowen Basin.

Canada’s Teck Resources, which produces about 26 million tonnes of high-grade coking coal from its mines in British Columbia, said late last month it was diverting spot cargoes to China to take advantage of short-term pricing.

Like Most Politicians,Prime Minister Trudeau's climate stance is usually coloured by demanding other countries "do something".
I doubt we will see him demanding that coal not be supplied to China.
Never let your principles get in the way of money.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 7 2020, 02:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Things slowly starting to unravel in a financial sense.
Both Victoria and NSW have lost their prized AAA credit ratings.
The head of the RBA said last week at the parliamentary hearings that the loss of a AAA credit rating “doesn’t concern me”, and maintaining the top debt grade from global agencies had “more political symbolism than economic importance”.

It may not concern him, but I bet it concerns some of the external lenders.

The next interest rate movement will be up.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 7 2020, 01:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Cameon Green won't have done his chances any harm. Got a 50 No so far.
He is batting with current OZ captain, so he will have a chance to impress.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 7 2020, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Australia A, 4 for 68.
The test hopefuls all failed.
Pucovski 1
Burns 4
Head 18
Yadav showing his bowling skills.
Won't be easy for OZ come the test, this Indian side have some quality players and some depth.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 7 2020, 08:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I find the US federal system, its legal structures, its political systems, and to some degree its social structures a fscinating subject.
I cam across this little gem while reading late last night
FromLaw and Crime

QUOTE
In strict theory, the U.S. Supreme Court has no jurisdiction to settle Pennsylvania constitutional issues, such as whether the state statute at question (Act 77) violates the state constitution.


It sort of shows why there are so many different frameworks in each state.
Imagine if the Supreme court or High court were unable to intervene in state based constitutional amendments here in OZ.
I used to think that our States are the biggest problem in OZ, but it can get even more Bizarre in the US.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 6 2020, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Ya gotta be careful of these "comments".
I went searching for the original.
Found it HERE at The guardian
It quotes the cost at a tad over $5,000.
Stuart Roberts, one of the amigos, was at least on official business, but he didn't go to the party.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 6 2020, 04:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Caribbean cricket has sunk a long way from its heady days of the 80's.
WI are in new Zealand with both an A team and the real team.
In the first test, WI First 11 were beaten by NZ first 11 by an innings and 134 runs.within 3 days.
NZ A team beat the WI A tema by an innings and 143 runs inside 3 days.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 5 2020, 01:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

if one looks at the BOM weather maps
BOM MAP
The low on the coast of the Pilbara in WA is forecast to be getting down below 1000 HP sometime towards. wednesday, Thursday of next week.
Given the water temperatures up there, that is perfect conditions for the formation of a cyclone.
Question is, will it continue out to sea towards East Timor, or loop back towards the coast.
Some mining ops may well be curtailed if it does.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 5 2020, 08:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

How lucky are we that despite what France and the French think, it will never be a world power.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2020, 09:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

At my age, it would take a week to get the old body into the thing then a month to get out again!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 4 2020, 04:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

OK, we can stop searching.
The old bloke found some papers he had with the original purchase.
Its actually a UK kit called an Embeesea Charger.
The bloke wants 10k for it, but he not sure if all the bits are there for it.
To paraphrase Mr Keaton, tell him he's dreaming.".
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 3 2020, 08:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I know there will be some people out there with good memories (or at least better than mine), who are interested in cars as more than a means of getting from a to B.
Just recently, I met up with an elderly gentlemen from the boondocks who showed me a fibreglass car he had in his shed.
He told me it was one of the many kit cars that were supplied in OZ, wherby the floor plan, engine and mechanicals were from a VW beetle, with the sleek whizz bang fibreglass shells bolted to the chassis.
The Purvis Eureka was probably the most popular, but there were others .
This one had gull wing doors, recessed pop up headlights and looked very much like an 80's era Lotus Elan or Elite.
He reckons there were only ever two in existence, but after hours of searching the web, cannot find any info about it.
Any one out there got something stirring in the brain cells??
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Dec 1 2020, 06:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I noticed that some parasite called DIMichael has posted some porn on a new thread in off topic chat.
I tried yo report it to the moderators, but as has been the case for some time, the report function comes up with an IPS driver error.
Poor form Moderators.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2020, 01:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Given that the two preferred vaccines for use in the USA (by US pharma companies naturally), and both need to be produced, transported and kept at -70C , the logistics of such a massive vaccination program are starting to be worked out.


According to NEWSMAX
UPS has started the ball rolling.

QUOTE
Global shipping giant UPS on Tuesday said it would start making dry ice in the United States and also distribute ultra-cold temperature freezers as it prepares to handle the logistics of shipping Covid-19 vaccines.

Facing the world's largest coronavirus outbreak, the US government's Operation Warp Speed plans to distribute 6.4 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in the first week after it's cleared for emergency use, which could come as soon as December 10.

That vaccine requires ultra-cold long-term storage of -70 degrees Celsius (-94 Fahrenheit), and the company has developed special containers with dry ice to keep it cool for up to 15 days, while other vaccines may also need dry ice in transport.

In a statement, UPS said it had added equipment in its facilities that can produce up to 1,200 pounds of dry ice an hour for the shipping needs of these vaccines, which can be distributed within 24 hours of production to US and Canadian hospitals.

"Healthcare facilities in Louisville, Dallas and Ontario will ensure we have the capability to produce dry ice to sufficiently pack and replenish shipments as needed to keep products viable and effective," Wes Wheeler, president of medical arm UPS Healthcare, said in a statement.

UPS also announced a partnership with freezer manufacturer Stirling Ultracold to distribute freezers capable of reaching temperatures as low as -80 degrees Celsius to doctors' offices, pharmacies and urgent care facilities where the vaccines may be stored for long periods of time.


Given that the frozen CO2 will sublimate back to gaseous form, how will it be counted in US national CO2 emissions??

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2020, 11:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

A little while back, Scotty from Marketing was scathing about the 3 cartier watches that the (now former) CEO of Australia Post bestowed upon three of her employees that worked a deal that raked in a couple of billion for AUS Post from the banks.
He said it didn't past the pub test. Fair enough probably, but if you are going to use the pub test, ya hafta use it consistently.

It has been revealed that former finance minister Mathias Cormann has been swanning around using a government supplied jet while he pitches for a tax free jobas the OECD.
fromNEWS au

QUOTE
Mathias Cormann “would have contracted COVID-19” if he wasn’t given taxpayer-funded flights to secure a tax-free job, the Prime Minister claims.

The former finance minister quit politics earlier this month, announcing he would bid to become secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Although his income is no longer on the public purse, Mr Cormann has used taxpayer money to fly to several countries across Europe and the Middle East during his campaign.

An RAAF jet, which reports say costs $4000 for every hour it is used, remains on standby for the former finance minister. He has already racked up 20,000 kilometres in the RAAF Dassault 7X.
“This is a very important position, and the OECD is going to play a really important role in the global economic recovery,” he said.

“Mathias would be an upstanding secretary-general of the OECD, standing up for those liberal democratic market-based values which it represents.”

Mr Morrison cited the Rudd government’s campaign for a Security Council seat as proof the investment was worthwhile. Taxpayers spent $25m to secure the seat.

Labor has given bipartisan support for Mr Cormann’s bid for the secretary-generalship, but the Greens are pushing the OECD to reject it over his record on climate change.


What a load of bullshit.

The OECD has proved as ineffective as all the other world Alphabet groupings in solving any problems. They are setup as a gravy train for the self appointed guardians of the world to get even more wealthy.
There is absolutely no guarantee that Australian taxpayers will get anything out of this junket, even if Cormann were to get the gig.
If he wants the job, and he doesn't want to get COVID, hire his own exec jet, it would be Tax deductible!
At the very minimum, he should have to forgo his lavish OZ pension if he gets this new tax free snout in the trough job.

At least in Christine Holgate's case, the rewards were given AFTER the deal was done and the gains for the Aus Post in the bag.

Politicians, hypocrites from the top of their heads to the tip of their toes.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2020, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I had Matty Wade as opener for the last ODI only.
I would not have him open in tests, regardless of his average.
Pucovski is the obvious choice for the tests, as he has already opened for Vics this year with some pretty good success, albeit on flat Tracks.
But you can only play on what you are given, and he has played well.
Still a question mark over him and the short ball.
Anyone who keeps getting hit in the head and suffering concussion will always be tested by lots of short balls.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 30 2020, 08:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Indians did better than last Fridays game, but still lost.
For a while they were still in it, but with 30 overs gone, they still needed 204 off the last 20 with three wickets already down.
204 off 20 in a T20 game is a big score, so they were a bit behind the eight ball already.
Still managed to keep within striking distance for 8 to 10 overs, but the asking rate just got too big.
Their batting has some potency, but their bowling is a bit sus at the moment.
Australia not without its issues.
Starc was better last night, but only marginally.
Warner will be out of action for a while with that groin strain, wouldn't surprise me to see him miss the tests as well.
Despite calls for Green or Pucovski to get a run, matty bWade is the obvious choice as re-placement opener.
Henriques bowled better than I expected, so thats a bonus.
Adam Zampa has continued his recent good form, and is turning out to be a specialist ODI bowler.
Fielding was good, saved a lot of runs, and things generally on the up
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2020, 07:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

From Science Daily

QUOTE
Simon Fraser University professors Paul Tupper and Caroline Colijn have found that physical distancing is universally effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19, while social bubbles and masks are more situation-dependent.

The researchers developed a model to test the effectiveness of measures such as physical distancing, masks or social bubbles when used in various settings.

Their paper was published Nov. 19 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).

They introduce the concept of "event R," which is the expected number of people who become infected with COVID-19 from one individual at an event.

Tupper and Colijn look at factors such as transmission intensity, duration of exposure, the proximity of individuals and degree of mixing -- then examine what methods are most effective at preventing transmission in each circumstance.

The researchers incorporated data from reports of outbreaks at a range of events, such as parties, meals, nightclubs, public transit and restaurants. The researchers say that an individual's chances of becoming infected with COVID-19 depend heavily on the transmission rate and the duration -- the amount of time spent in a particular setting.

Events were categorized as saturating (high transmission probability) or linear (low transmission probability). Examples of high transmission settings include bars, nightclubs and overcrowded workplaces while low transmission settings include public transit with masks, distancing in restaurants and outdoor activities.

The model suggests that physical distancing was effective at reducing COVID-19 transmission in all settings but the effectiveness of social bubbles depends on whether chances of transmission are high or low.

In settings where there is mixing and the probability of transmission is high, such as crowded indoor workplaces, bars and nightclubs and high schools, having strict social bubbles can help reduce the spread of COVID-19.

The researchers found that social bubbles are less effective in low transmission settings or activities where there is mixing, such as engaging in outdoor activities, working in spaced offices or travelling on public transportation wearing masks.


The definitive answer!

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 29 2020, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

And the OZ team goes 15 runs better than the last game, S. Smith another quick century, with 50+ contributions from Warner, Finch Lambshanks and a quick fire 63NO from Maxwell.
India will have to bat significantly better than the first game to overhaul this total, but they have the batsmen to do it.
Should be interesting.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 28 2020, 05:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

If any more proof was needed that Public Service bureacrats live on a completely different plant, surely this pice of news should be the icing on the cake.
From ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Fruit growers and processors say they are crushed by a decision to cut the health star rating (HSR) for 100-per-cent no-added-sugar juices from five stars to as low as two stars.

The trans-Tasman forum has lowered the health star rating of fresh, pure juice
Federal Agriculture Minister David Littleproud was unable to persuade the forum against the move
Devastated farmers fear people will drink less fresh juice, causing more fruit waste
The decision came down to a vote at the Australian and New Zealand Ministerial Forum on Food Regulation, a group made up of state and territory ministers as part of its ongoing response to the five-year HSR review.

Food is rated from half-a-star to five stars depending on how its healthy and risk nutrients compare but the system has come in for criticism.

The Federal Government's aim in developing the ratings is to give shoppers an easy way to identify better choices of packaged and processed foods, something Agriculture Minister David Littleproud asserts is undermined by this decision.

"What I don't accept is the insanity of this decision, which really has no basis on nutritional value — it really just is mind-numbingly dumb," he said.

The forum's July communique revealed Mr Littleproud's initial push — to see 100-per-cent fresh fruit and vegetable juice with no added sugar receive an automatic HSR score of five stars — not supported and the review recommendations were maintained.

The Minister's last chance to improve the rating was Friday's meeting, when he put forward a proposal aiming for an automatic four HSR, a rating he said was supported by the Commonwealth and the farm industry.

"This was it, this was my second crack at it. I had a go in July and got rolled and then rolled again," Mr Littleproud said.

"It would appear that our bureaucrats are working off some other scientific sheet that what reality is."


The world has truly gone nuts.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 28 2020, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The WOW! seti signal is still puzzling scientists even after 40 years.
FromHACK

QUOTE
On a balmy August evening in 1977, an enormous radio telescope in a field in the middle of Ohio sat silently listening to the radio universe. Shortly after 10:00 PM, the Earth’s rotation slewed the telescope through a powerful radio signal whose passage was noted only by the slight change in tone in the song sung every twelve seconds by the line printer recording that evening’s data.

When the data was analyzed later, an astronomer’s marginal exclamation of the extraordinarily powerful by vanishingly brief blip would give the signal its forever name: the Wow! Signal. How we came to hear this signal, what it could possibly mean, and where it might have come from are all interesting details of an event that left a mystery in its wake, one that citizen scientists are now looking into with a fresh perspective. If it was sent from a region of space with habitable planets, it’s at least worth a listen.Understanding the Wow! Signal requires a look at the instrument that produced it. Affectionately known as “The Big Ear”, the Ohio State University Radio Observatory was the vision of John D. Kraus, a physicist at Ohio State. Dr. Kraus was no stranger to big science — during WWII he developed methods for degaussing naval ships to protect them from magnetically detonated mines, and he worked on a massive cyclotron for the University of Michigan.

Dr. Kraus first described his idea for a telescope capable of detecting extraterrestrial radio signals in an article for Scientific American in 1955. The design of the telescope would be extremely simple, especially compared to the more typical fully steerable dish antenna. It consisted of a large, flat reflector section of steel mesh standing across an open space from a wide, stationary paraboloid reflector. Between these two elements lay a large, flat ground plane area of aluminum-covered pavement. At the focal point of the paraboloid reflector was a small shack containing the feed horns, which could move across the width of the telescope on railroad tracks. Although in general the telescope was static and pointed wherever the Earth’s rotation took it, the feedhorn tracking coupled with adjustments to the tilt of the flat reflector gave some control to which part of the sky was being surveyed.

The Big Ear was big: the flat reflector alone was 33 meters tall and 100 meters wide, and the ground plane stretched 150 meters between the two reflectors. But Dr. Kraus had actually designed a much, much bigger antenna.

His original design called for 600-meter-wide reflectors, but when the National Science Foundation grant came through in 1955 at a paltry $48,000, the design was reduced to what was possible. And even then, a great deal of “sweat equity” went into the construction of the Big Ear, with graduate students learning to weld specifically to build the telescope, and with critical equipment such as the parametric amplifiers needed for the receiver being built at cost by an OSU alumnus.


and from Leif Salvberg
QUOTE
As of October 2020, the WOW! Signal remains the strongest candidate SETI signal. It has been suggested that the signal was produced by hydrogen clouds from Comets 266/P Christensen and P/2008 Y2 (Paris and Davies, 2015). However, this hypothesis has been dismissed by the scientific community, and the source of the signal remains unknown.


Despite the WOW! Signal never repeated, the key aspect was its duration. The signal lasted for 72 seconds, but since this was the maximum amount of time that the Big Ear radio telescope was able to observe, it is likely that the signal would have lasted longer.


The main problem, however, is that the signal never repeated. Follow-up observations of the area conducted by many observatories during several years never detected another signal (Gray and Ellingsen, 2002). Nonetheless, the fact that the signal never repeated, does not necessarily discard that it was produced by extraterrestrial intelligence.


In fact, if we analyse the history of (the few) radio signals that humanity have sent to several targets in the hope of contacting a civilization, none of those transmissions had a long duration or were repeatedly sent for a long time. An extraterrestrial civilization could have opted to behave in a similar manner.


Few attempts have been made to determine the exact location of the WOW! Signal due to the difficulty involved. Despite it was detected in just one of the two feed horns of the radio telescope, the data was processed in a way that does not allow us to determine which of the feed horns actually received the signal.


They are out there all right, but not wanting to get too close to us because of COVID (and Trump)..
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 27 2020, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

So, how many knew there was an ODI on today in Sydney between OZ and India??
I only found out by accident. Not much publicity.
Of course its not on free to air, only on Foxtel, so I guess that explains it.
Watching on the cricinfo network as usual.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 27 2020, 12:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

So for how long do we in OZ put up with the blatant screwing by the CCP.
According to The Australian
QUOTE
The Australian coal flotilla stuck off the Chinese coast has swollen to more than 80 ships carrying blacklisted cargo worth more than $1.1bn, prompting the ­Morrison government to raise concerns about “discriminatory action”.

The Australian can also reveal coal exports to China have plunged by 96 per cent in the first three weeks of November, as a go-slow by Chinese officials crunches the nation’s second biggest export industry.

Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said reports of the growing delays had raised the government’s concerns about the trade practices China was deploying. “We are working closely with the industry as well as seeking assurances and clarity from Chinese authorities that this is not discriminatory action against Australian coal,” he said.

“We reiterate that all terms of our free-trade agreement and world trade obligations between Australia and China should be upheld and respected.”

The widening coal halt comes at a difficult time for the Morrison government, which is ­attempting to reduce tensions with its biggest trading partner after a seven-month spat.

Coal was the biggest export industry on a list of seven Australian products Chinese state media reported were banned in early November. There are now 82 coal vessels carrying 8.8 million tonnes of coal worth an estimated $1.1bn stuck off China, four times the number of ships known to be stranded just two weeks ago, according to industry sources. Up to 1500 seafarers are stranded on the vessels.


And now on ABC NEWS
QUOTE
The Chinese Government has announced it will place tariffs on all Australian wine imports from tomorrow, striking a blow to the multi-billion-dollar industry.

It follows the preliminary findings of a Chinese anti-dumping investigation into Australia's wine exports that found that dumping exists and caused Chinese winemakers "substantial harm".

China has accused Australian producers of selling wine for below the cost of production.

The tariff announcement comes amid souring trading relations that have seen China impose import tariffs on Australian beef and barley.

China is fast becoming public enemy number one.
They sent us covid and blame us for demanding an enquiry as to how the world got infected by the Chinese Virus.
Its only a matter of time before the bastards start putting tariffs on Iron ore as well.
I am sure Vale will be pretty happy about that.

We may as well start selling Iron Ore to Taiwan, Korea, India, and any other country that makes steel.
AUD will start to come under enormous pressure as the rest of the world comes to the realisation that our biggest trading partner by far is slowly screwing us.
Farewell lucky country.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 27 2020, 09:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The Chairman/CEO of Evolution Mining, Jake Klein has warned that the ground is shifting for OZ exploration companies looking to expand in other countries (including in Africa).
From Todays OZ
QUOTE
The global gold sector may have to rethink its production strategy as China’s influence in Africa grows and as the cost of complying with environmental, social and governance standards demanded by major investors increases, according to Evolution Mining executive chairman Jake Klein.

Speaking at Evolution’s annual shareholder meeting on Thursday, Mr Klein warned that the coronavirus crisis was exacerbating the rise of resources nationalism across the developing world, and forcing greater competition for access to gold deposits in Africa and Asia as China flexed its muscles.

“The past playbook of gold companies looking to expand their business has been to seek this growth in developing countries, places where the geology is considered prospective and underexplored, and where labour costs are cheap. This was often a successful strategy in an orderly world,” Mr Klein said.

“Today, an investor must consider not only the discontent and instability that has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic in many developing countries, but also the growing influence of China, both at a government level and as a competitor at a corporate level, particularly in Africa.”

Mr Klein’s comments come against the backdrop of trade tensions between Australia and China that has led to a standstill on coal exports, and as China looks to take the lead in developing the so-called “Pilbara killer” Simandou iron ore deposit in Guinea.

Chinese gold producers have also taken a keen interest in African gold deposits developed by ASX-listed companies, with a takeover battle over ASX-listed Cardinal Resources and its gold projects in Ghana playing out between China’s Shandong Gold and Russia’s Nordgold.“And in that same time it has been developing its own champions of the mining industry, Chinese companies that are now competitive with their peers from other countries — Australia, the US and Canada.”

China’s lending to African ­nations — worth about $US150bn in 2018, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins University, or just over 20 per cent of Africa’s total government borrowings — had helped strengthen those ties, Mr Klein said, with Chinese companies now in a far stronger position to compete with the legion of Australian companies looking to develop the continent’s mineral deposits.

“They have good access to government influence, they’re competitive on the ground, and they have good access to capital,” Mr Klein said.

“So to me, one of the implications for a gold investor is you need to start thinking about country risk much more than you may have in the past, because you either have to apply a bigger premium to safer jurisdictions — like Australia and Canada — or a larger discount to developing countries where there may be unforeseen interference.”

Combined with the difficulty in finding new gold deposits in more stable jurisdictions, and increased pressure from major shareholders to respect the rights of traditional owners and on environmental issues, rising global instability could force gold majors to rethink their long-term production strategy, Mr Klein said.

“The focus on ESG issues is rapidly increasing and I think the industry’s response is pivotal to its long-term future,” he said.

“If you overlay this onto the reality that making major new gold discoveries is becoming increasingly challenging, and gold mines are becoming more expensive to build and operate, in our view the solution should be a sector that is accepting that its future may be best served by producing fewer ounces with a focus on quality rather than quantity.

“Avoiding these risks is at the core of Evolution’s decision to exclusively focus on the tier-one jurisdictions of Australia and Canada, where the rule of law can be relied on.”

Mr Klein told The Australian he had no doubt stable jurisdictions such as Canada and Australia would become steadily more expensive to operate in, partly as a result of the demands of institutional investors for sustainable production.

I will start looking at my gold portfolio and reduce some of the co's that are relying on overseas mines. particularly Africa.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 26 2020, 08:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

One of the very last things that Obama did in office just prior to that Trump bloke taking over, was to leave a little present for him.
In a fit of pique perhaps, with the conniving approval of John Kerry, Obama went against the previous long standing practice of vetoing Arab inspired criticisms of Israel in the UN, and abstained.
Caused a flurry within diplomatic circles, which may well have been aimed just as much at Netanyahu as trump himself.
There was no real imperative to do it, seemed to be no quid pro quo, just a mischievous piece of bastardry for the incoming Republican regime to deal with.
trump, being the sort of angry, vengeful sort of bloke he is, will most likely be thinking up the absolute worst present for the incoming Democrat regime.
Will be interesting to see what he comes up with.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 26 2020, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Now that we have competing vaccines across the world, it will be interesting to see which ones win the race.
It would seem that the Oxford Uni/AstraZeneca version hich the OZ govt has put its faith in, does have some advantages.
Firstly, it will remain viable at 4 degrees centigrade or less, whereas the others need to be kept at -70C or less.
its a lot simpler transporting and keeping stuff using a fridge rather than a cryogenic container.
Secondly, there will be different levels of costing. Pharma companies only exist to make a buck, despite their protestations of helping humanity.
Be interesting to see how much each dose costs in various countries.
Thirdly, the important factor of efficacy. Some claim 90% efficacy, others claim 70%. The reality will be somewhat less than the claims whatever they may be.
Fourthly, there is the dreaded side effects of the vaccine.
FromZero Hedge
QUOTE
European press reports earlier indicated that the EU's pharma regulator is preparing to expedite approval of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, even as the FDA expands its investigation into the COVID-19 vaccine's Phase 3 trials (after a patient was reportedly seriously sickened in the UK, though AZ insists that illness had nothing to do with the trial).

As the WHO, Bill Gates, Dr. Fauci and the global health-care establishment work with their allies in the press to try and convince as many people as possible to agree to take a COVID-19 vaccine once one is approved, more alarming reports are emerging in the mainstream press about issues with the 'Phase 3' trials.

CNBC reported Thursday morning that several patients involved in trials involving Moderna's vaccine candidate and the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine candidate have experienced serious side effects, including "shaking so hard he cracked a tooth after taking the second dose."

As bad as they were, the symptoms typically dissipated within a day or two, and four out of the five subjects interviewed by CNBC said they felt the struggle was "worth it" to gain protection from COVID-19. Then again, the symptoms certaintly sound serious.

At least 41 vaccine candidates are in human trials worldwide, but only four US-backed candidates are in Phase 3: Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson. At least one UK-backed vaccine is also entering Phase 3. While it’s possible some of the symptoms described could have been caused by an unrelated illness, Moderna and Pfizer previously said some participants in their phase one trials experienced mild symptoms. Pfizer emphasized that complications like this were only seen in a small number of cases.

And then theres the problems of patients not returning for the booster dose.

FromZero hedge

QUOTE
Fevers, sweats, migraines and muscle aches that last for days - these are just some of the symptoms reported by various 'Phase 3' trial participants who volunteered for the vaccine trials run by Pfizer, Moderna and others. Though AstraZeneca noted in its preliminary results that its vaccine (which uses the more traditional adenovirus vector) seemed to produce side effects that are less severe than some of its competitors.

As scientists try to ensure the US reaches a 70%+ vaccination rate (the cut-off point at which herd immunity is believed to kick in) a group of doctors just warned that public health officials and drugmakers need to be "transparent" with patients about the potential side effects of vaccination, and ensure precautions are taken to ensure patients don't skip their follow-up visit.

This is a top concern for Dr. Sandra Fryhofer of the American Medical Association, who warned that the side effects might deter many of her patients from receiving the follow-up shot. Dr. Fryhofer expressed her concerns during a virtual meeting on Monday with the CDC and representatives from various vaccine makers

"We really need to make patients aware that this is not going to be a walk in the park," Fryhofer said during a virtual meeting with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, an outside group of medical experts that advise the CDC. She is also a liaison to the committee. "They are going to know they had a vaccine. They are probably not going to feel wonderful. But they've got to come back for that second dose."During the meeting on Monday, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases who frequently participated in CDC press briefings during the early days of the outbreak, said the agency would work to develop guidance if a health-care worker got a vaccine and then felt unwell the following day, since this could "impact planning on a hospital level in terms of which staff gets vaccinated which day?" she said.

Beyond ensuring hospitals aren't left in the lurch because they decided to vaccinate their entire staff at the same time, the doctors also discussed a novel strategy: using "positive" language to talk about the sideeffects. One example would be referring to side effects as a "response" to the vaccine.

Of course that won't actually do anything to mitigate the side effects.

As one might expect, some patients who participated in the study actually got upset when they didn't experience severe side effects post-vaccination, believing it was a sign they had received the placebo not the actual vaccine.


And finally, how long do the effects of the vaccination last? Is it weeks, months or years? What happens if its only a few months, will people keep going abck for repeat treatments??
All very interesting.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 24 2020, 07:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I am not a facebook user, partly due to its toxicity and partly due to the fact that I would never trust that little creep, Zuckerberg.
It seems that FB has now taken on a role similar to the fED, where it becomes a law unto its own. above any mere national governments, and becomes the arbiter of "social acceptance".
From Wired AM
QUOTE
FACEBOOK HAS BROUGHT its might down upon a small but scrappy academic team who've done brilliant work in exposing the company's failures to contain scams, rip-offs, and political disinformation. If the team doesn’t fully dismantle its public-interest research project and delete its data by November 30, Facebook says, it “may be subject to additional enforcement action.” Why? Because the $775 billion company wants to protect our privacy.

For political dirty tricksters, Facebook's self-serve ad platform is a juicy target: If you want to spread disinformation, the platform will help you narrow down the people who'll see it. A canny political actor can use Facebook ads to show lies and vile incitements to people who might act on them, and, just as important, not show those ads to the rest of the world, which would reveal the way politicos talk when they think there's nobody here but us chickens.

Facebook's been fined over this, its execs raked over the coals in Congress and the British Parliament, and it says it has learned its lesson, putting in place measures that will prevent it.

Enter Ad Observer and the Ad Observatory, a project of NYU's Tandon School of Engineering. Ad Observer is a browser plug-in that Facebook users voluntarily install. The plug-in scrapes (makes a copy of) every ad that a user sees and sends it to Ad Observatory, a public database of Facebook ads that scholars and accountability journalists mine to analyze what's really happening on the platform. Time and again, they've discovered gross failures in Facebook's ability to enforce its own policies and live up to its promises.

Facebook has threatened legal action against the Ad Observatory team, claiming that the Ad Observer plug-in violates its terms of service. They want it removed by the Monday after Thanksgiving, or else. In other words, Facebook wants independent, third-party scrutiny of its ad policy enforcement to end at the very moment that its enforcement failures are allowing false claims about the outcome of the 2020 election to spread, challenging the legitimacy of American democracy itself. This deadline also roughly coincides with Facebook’s reinstatement of political advertising. In other words, the company is opening the door to far more paid political disinformation at the very same moment that it is shutting out independent watchdogs who monitor this stuff.

The company swears this action is not driven by a desire to silence its critics. Rather, it says it is acting on its well-known commitment to preserving its users' privacy.

No, really.

Both of these arguments are (to use a technical term) rank bullshit. Facebook's claims that it can enforce its terms of service as though they were laws that had been passed by Congress are based on an anti-competitive suit it brought against a (now defunct) startup called Power Ventures more than a decade ago. In that suit, the company argued that allowing Facebook users to read their messages without logging into Facebook was a crime.

The Power Ventures decision was bonkers, but that's because the law it invoked is even worse. The 1986 Computer Fraud and Abuse Act was rushed into law after Ronald Reagan saw Matthew Broderick in the movie WarGames and panicked (no, really). It's so broadly worded that if you squint right and read every third word, the Power Ventures decision makes a kind of topsy-turvy sense.

But Facebook's legal theories have a serious problem. Over the past decade, the courts have substantially narrowed the precedent from Power Ventures, thanks to a pair of suits: Sandvig v. Barr and HiQ v. LinkedIn. These modern precedents make Facebook's legal arguments a hard stretch.

Even more of a stretch: Facebook's claims that it is only acting to protect its users' privacy. Set aside for a moment the absurdity of the 21st century's worst privacy invaders positioning themselves as privacy champions. Stipulate that Facebook has found privacy religion and is really here to defend its users' privacy.

Facebook does not protect its users' privacy by vetoing their explicit choice to share whatever ads they see with Ad Observatory. Privacy, after all, is not the situation in which no one knows anything about you. (That's secrecy.) Privacy is when you decide who gets to know stuff about you, and what stuff they get to know. As Facebook elegantly puts it in its own policy documents: "What you share and who you share it with should be your decision."


Most of the so called "ads" on the majority of sites are nothing but clickbait, and in some cases, complete scams.
The last thing the big boys (aka FANGS) want is someone not approved by them to be looking at their "ethics".

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 23 2020, 08:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The mighty winged suits have gone green.
Not satisfied with jet packs, rechargeable elctric packs are now the power source.
BMW has spent the last three years developing an electrified winged suit.

From BMW Winged Suit
QUOTE
Base jumper and wingsuit pilot Peter Salzman, a 33-year-old Austrian, was recently outfitted with the suit and leaped from a helicopter. The 15 kW battery pack, powering two carbon impellers, spinning at 25,000 rpm, allowed Salzman to reach 186 mph.Salzmann's first flight was a wild success. Next, it appears the daredevil wants to fly the wingsuit between skyscrapers.

There's no word if the wingsuit will be commercially available from BMW. Powered wingsuits and jetpacks could be the future of private flight, or perhaps quickly adopted by the military for the modern battlefield. Either way, these alternative forms of flight appear to be maturing in a way that could be commercially available by the midpoint of the decade.


I am still trying to get my head around how the two impellers propel the guy at those speeds, I would have thought that the tips would exceed the speed of sound and lose all effectiveness.
The videos are amazing, Who would have thought that the Swiss have developed a wind tunnel just for testing winged suits!

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 23 2020, 08:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

A week or so ago, I commented on some questionable comments and activity from Brett Sutton, Victoria Chief Health Officer.
But today he has taken out the gold medal for blame shifting.
From Todays OZ
QUOTE
When reflecting on the state’s handling of the second wave, Prof Sutton said the greatest frustration was the lack of national support mechanisms to trace cases when clusters emerged.

He said the health department was struggling to keep up with administrative responsibilities.

“Additional support has been straightened out, and it’s run much more smoothly,” Prof Sutton told the inquiry.

He said South Australia was able to call upon multiple jurisdictions for help handling its outbreak last week but enough hadn’t been done to help Victoria during its second wave.


Is this the same org that accepted and then rescinded the offer of help from the ADF?

Is it the same org that decided to not follow what the other states were doing after the national gabfest of all the premiers, the so called national cabineT?
The same org that according to D Andrews had "a world class tracing system" that used pencil and paper when other states were using tablets.
What resources was he lkooking for, more pencils, paper and erasers??
The same org that did not have a QR code ready system, despite being shown how effective it was in other states?


The bloke has no concept of responsibility. Its always someone elses' fault.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 23 2020, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Anyone who was still under the impression that the US elected officials and their underlings run anything except a publicity machine, should read the following.

FromWall strrt on Parade
QUOTE
Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stunned markets by demanding in a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the Fed return Treasury funds that are backstopping the bulk of its emergency lending programs and wind down these programs by year’s end. Adding further shock, the Fed rebuked the idea with its own statement, saying this:

“The Federal Reserve would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.”

At issue in this newly-emerged war between Treasury and the Fed is $454 billion, $340 billion of which has yet to be accounted for. The process has played out as follows:

On March 27, 2020 President Trump signed the CARES Act emergency stimulus plan into law. That law instructed the Treasury Secretary to make $454 billion available to the Federal Reserve for emergency lending facilities. The funds were to make $10 of Fed emergency funding available for each $1 from the taxpayer. The taxpayers’ money was to be used as loss-absorbing capital. The $454 billion would have supported up to $4.54 trillion in lending by the Fed.

But according to the Fed’s H.4.1 balance sheet statements that are released weekly on Thursday afternoon, the Fed has only used the following amounts of money from the Treasury: $10 billion for the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; $37.5 billion for the Corporate Credit Facilities to buy up corporate bonds and Exchange Traded Funds; $37.5 billion for the Main Street Lending Facilities for loans to small and mid-size businesses; $17.5 billion for the Municipal Liquidity Facility that buys up municipal bonds; $10 billion for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility; and $1.5 billion for the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility which bailed out toxic waste in money market mutual funds to keep them from breaking a buck. All of this adds up to just $114 billion out of the $454 billion that Congress allocated.

Wall Street On Parade has been repeatedly asking for an explanation as to what has happened to the balance of $340 billion that Congress intended to be used to help American families and businesses during the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. (See As 98,000 Businesses Permanently Closed, the Fed and Treasury Have Sat on $340 Billion of Untapped Money from the CARES Act.)

Not only does the American public not know what happened to that $340 billion but as we pointed out previously “despite regular promises from the Fed Chairman that the Fed will be transparent about its lending programs, there are four programs for which the Fed has yet to provide transaction level data – meaning the names of the borrowers and how much they borrowed. Those programs include: the Primary Dealer Credit Facility; the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility; and the Fed’s Repo Loan facility that sluiced over $9 trillion cumulatively to the trading houses on Wall Street beginning on September 17, 2019 – months before the first case of COVID-19 appeared anywhere in the world.”

Three of the programs that the Fed has operated in the dark are the very programs that Mnuchin has asked in his letter to be extended for 90 days: the Primary Dealer Credit Facility; the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility. In addition, Mnuchin would like the Fed’s Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, which provided more than $3 billion to Citigroup, to also be extended for 90 days.



Love the response, the US sec ton treasury issues and order to the US fed to return funds and the U FED (A private organisation, not an arm of the government or president), basically gives him the bird.
The real power is with the Banks via the US FED. So much for transparency. Its a weird country.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 23 2020, 01:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

It seems that not even China is exempt from financial problems when banks are allowed to do things free of any proper oversight.
from Caixin
QUOTE
The wave of financial distress flooding China’s corporate sector, which has seen a furious selloff in bonds following the unexpected default of several state-owned enterprises, is spilling over into a key financing conduit used by China's giant shadow banking sector — the trust industry.

As Caixin reports, Huaxin Trust Co. one of 68 companies licensed to conduct trust business in China and one of the largest "shadow banks" in the mainland , is trying to raise as much as 6.8 billion yuan ($1 billion) from strategic investors as it faces a growing liquidity squeeze that’s already forced it to skip repayments on dozens of investment products over the past few months.

The Dalian, Liaoning province-based institution announced last Tuesday that it is seeking one or more strategic investors to inject 3.4 billion yuan to 6.8 billion yuan into the firm, which would increase its registered capital to 10 billion yuan to 13.4 billion yuan.

But, as Caixin's Timmy Shen writes, what drew the market’s attention was a condition stipulated by Huaxin that any investor would need to agree to "support the company’s liquidity before the completion of their investment to allow the firm to protect the interests of investors in its trust products." And while this is tantamount to a pledge to backstop a bailout of the core shadow banking pillar, one veteran trust-industry source told Caixin that it can be difficult to persuade strategic investors to provide liquidity support before even making their investment, although investors can use this as leverage to get better terms


From Zero hedge

QUOTE
Even before the current episode of corporate bond turmoil triggered by the sudden defaults of state owned Yongcheng Coal and Brilliance Auto, China’s regulators had already become increasingly concerned about the hidden risks in the trust sector which plays an key role in the shadow banking sector by providing loans to higher-risk companies and those who have difficulty getting credit from traditional banks. The loans are packaged into high-yielding products which are then sold to retail investors and institutions.

For half a year, China's Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has been preparing regulations to put the country’s $3.1 trillion trust industry under closer oversight. The draft rules, which were put out for public comment in May, will govern how trust companies manage client funds, clarify requirements on trust products and toughen regulation of their loan-related investments.

Then in June, as part of a wave of wholesale systemic deleveraging which hammered such real-estate development firms as China Evergrande and nearly brought it to the edge of insolvency, the CBIRC told some trust firms to downsize their trust financing business according to tailored specifications provided by the regulator. The unofficial orders from the regulator followed a surge in demand for loans as companies scrambled for cash to help them weather the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak or to repay maturing loans. We detailed China's regulatory push to limit debt in October in "China Crackdown On Property Developer Debt Sparks Fears About Systemic Crisis" when we laid out the new "Three red lines" policy espoused by Beijing limiting the amount of new debt issuance.
In short, Huaxin Trust is the latest trust firm and "shadow bank" to run into trouble in a sector already reeling from the effects of a crackdown on shadow banking and an economic slowdown exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. Among them are Sichuan Trust Co. which has failed to repay investors more than 20 billion yuan, and Shanghai-listed Anxin Trust Co. once the darling of the trust sector, which collapsed last year and was found to have a "modest" 50 billion yuan black hole on its books.
The total assets in China's shadow bank sector have shrunk consistently since peaking in early 2018 as Beijing focused on aggressively limiting the amount of high-yielding debt issued by the sector.
However, with tens of trillions in yuan-denominated debt still outstanding within this loosely regulated offshoot of China's financial system, which still represents a last-ditch option for liquidity-challenged companies, as China's economy continues to shrink from the consequences of the pandemic regardless of the rosy and goalseeked data that Beijing is publishing on a monthly basis to convince the world - and China's massive depositor base - that all is well, we expect after the initial round of early tremors to hit China's trust companies such as Huaxin, the real shock to China's financial system is yet to come.


Hmm, shadow banking. It seems wherever the word is used there will be trouble forthcoming.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 23 2020, 12:38 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Cancel that cyclone, the upperlevel trough has weakened.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 23 2020, 12:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Geez, up another 15% today.
Must be some pretty good drill results!.
mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 21 2020, 06:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Well, theres ya second mistake.
Watching game of Thrones?
C'mon man, get a hold of yourself.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 21 2020, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

A reasonable possibility that come the middle to end of next week we will get the seasons first cyclone forming in the gulf off Burketown.
Be nice if it drops into a rain depression over the channel country.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 20 2020, 03:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Anything with the name Poseidon in it is to be avoid ed at all costs.
The film of same name was terrible.
There is a mob touting forex trades called Poseidon international (PSFXGROUP.COM) that repeatedly comes up on scam watch.
Its 50n yeass ago since the Poseidon Nickel announced the BIGGEST EVAH Nickel find in WA.
It drove the poor bloke who started it to an early death before he was even 40.
Nothing good ever came out of the name.
Micki
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 20 2020, 09:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Were ex sharescene great Arty still alive, I am sure he would love to get some of these for his cats.
FromCocunuts

QUOTE
Do you wear the hijab and would love the idea of twinning with your beloved feline friends? Look no further than your favorite online marketplace to find a matching purr-etty costume for your cats.Twitter account @txtdarionlshop, which is dedicated to document the strange and often hilarious world of online shopping, recently posted photos taken from a shop on Shopee that sells sharia-compliant costumes for cats. One of the items is named “Ukhti character costume for cats,” referring to the Arabic word meaning “my sister” but has come to be associated with modestly-dressed Muslim women.


The costume is sold for IDR85,000 (around US$6) and it can be found HERE.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 20 2020, 08:57 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

The problem with all the global fund managers is that everything they say is geared towards conning more suckers to put money into their funds "to Manage". This of course means more money for the fund managers, not always the clients.
The best you can do is to look at what the big boys are actually doing, rather than what they are saying.
This of course, does not guarantee that what they do will make any more money than what they say will do.
From Wall street on Parade


QUOTE
According to the 13F filing that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway made with the Securities and Exchange Commission for the quarter ending December 31, 2019, it held 59.5 million shares of JPMorgan Chase with a total value at that time of $8.29 billion. By June 30 of this year, that position had been trimmed by more than half, to 22.2 million shares. By September 30, one day after JPMorgan Chase had just admitted to its fourth and fifth felony count in the past six years, brought by the U.S. Department of Justice, Berkshire Hathaway’s position in JPMorgan Chase tallied up to just under 1 million shares, a 98 percent reduction from the beginning of the year, according to the SEC filing Berkshire Hathaway made on Monday.

And it’s not like Buffett is simply getting out of all big bank stocks. According to the same 13F filing for September 30, Berkshire Hathaway still held a whopping $24 billion in Bank of America stock; $4.7 billion in U.S. Bancorp; $3 billion in Wells Fargo; and $2.5 billion in Bank of New York Mellon.
Now the smart money seems to be saying it’s had enough. In addition to Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, George Soros’ investment arm, Soros Fund Management LLC has dumped all of its shares of JPMorgan Chase according to its 13F filing of September 30. That compares with the 258,252 shares it owned on June 30, 2020.


So from that, I would suggest that the smart money is rotating out of JP Morgan.
Not that anyone had been suggesting that would be a good play before they started doing it. That would have dropped the prices and they would have made less money.

Am I a cynical bastard?
You Bet!!!

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 19 2020, 09:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

IPL still going up, now near the post covid highs.
Still a long way to go to pre covid 52 week high, which is a little surprising since the big increases in mining activity should keep the explosives side going going, and the really good Autumn and spring breaks should boost the fertiliser side of things.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 19 2020, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I seem to be the only person interested enough in ASM to post anything ,on ASM, which is a little surprising given its meteoric rise.
On October 13 I said
QUOTE
If Scotty from Marketing were an investor/trader, he would be saying "how good is ASM".


Well, things just keep getting better.
F
QUOTE
rom todays ASX release
Australian Strategic Materials (ASX:ASM) (ASM) has successfully confirmed the commercial
scalability of its innovative metallisation process with the production of 120kg of titanium
copper alloy (99.5% purity) at its facility in Korea.
ASM’s Ziron Tech team produced two 60kg runs of the titanium copper alloy at a rate
equivalent to approximately 1,000kg per day. This result is significantly above the targeted
250kg per day production rate, outlined in the agreement between ASM and Dongkuk
Refractories and Steel Co Ltd (DK R&S), announced on 2 November 2020.ASM Managing Director, David Woodall said “The successful commercial production run of
titanium metal alloy is a significant result for the ASM team in Korea. What is even more
pleasing is that this result was achieved using a newly registered patented improvement to
our metallisation process, which has more than doubled the metal yield. We continue to
discuss with DK R&S how we can accelerate the development of a metal processing plant in
Korea.
“In addition to producing metal products from our Dubbo Project in central west NSW, ASM
now has the potential to develop a significant business unit around titanium and other
metals. This provides a tremendous foundation for ASM and its shareholders.”


Still wish the commercialisation of the plant was happening in OZ, but I guess the costs of here versus Kore would a big factor.
perhaps a little political play as well.

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 19 2020, 08:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Any country can decide to confiscate the assets of another country.
Australia did it to Japan and Germany in WW2, as did UK, Canada, New Zealand etc.
Its much easier selling down treasuries than bricks and mortar, so that is the obvious place to start.
There is always a reciprocal to this, lots of US companies have invested in China, but they will have no chance of selling those assets down.
China would just take them, including any intellectual Property rights.
You can see whats happening in OZ with plenty of business people , industry leaders, lobbyists etc bleating that the Fed govt should be fixing the problem with China.
That just aint gunna happen unless we become completely subservient to the CCP, which is also impossibly unlikely.
We are just going to have to live with a crude, aggressive, xenophobic military dictatorship on our region.
Just like many other nations in Asia have had to do with Western nations, without the military dictatorship part.
The question they have to ask themselves iis this: is being subservient to western imperialist culture better or worse than being subservient to Chinese Imperialist Culture??

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 19 2020, 08:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

As China moves out of foreign reserves, others move in a little, but nowhere near enough to cover the change.
From ZERO HEDGE

QUOTE
Some relatively positive news in the latest TIC data shows that the last 12 months purchases of Treasuries by foreign central banks surged by $59 billion to $221.6 billion - its highest since Jan 2019.
Total Long-Term Treasury Purchases: $22.5BN, sharp reversal from $33BN in sales in August

Purchases of Agencies $46.2BN, highest since Feb 2020

Foreigners sold a total of $28.7BN in corporate bonds, after $2.3BN in purchases in August

Stock purchases by foreigners $38.2BN, up from $26.6BN in August and most since May 2020.
While that is all bright and shiny news for the US Government's massive deficits, one trend continues - China is dedollarizing, dumping more of its Treasury holdings to the lowest since Jan 2017.Other high- (and low-) lights include:

Japan holds $1.28t, a decrease of $2.2b from last month

China holds $1.06t of U.S. Treasuries, a decrease of $6.3b from last month

Belgium holds $218.1b of U.S. Treasuries, an increase of $3.1b from prior month

Cayman Islands hold $231.6b, an increase of $2.7b from last month

Saudi Arabia holds $131.2b, an increase of $1.2b from last month

What is more interesting is that foreign official institutions bought for 2nd month in a row, something they haven't done since March 2018.

But the trend is clear.


The link below shows a chart showing the decline, but Sharescene admins in its great wisdom, do not allow IMG files, only TIF format.


https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-i...g?itok=UvCC67I5

Cayman Islands , a tiny Island with a GDP in the low millions, has more treasuries than Saudi's.
Tax evasion anyone??

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2020, 10:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

You may be right.
I wrote this in Feb 09 2009 in this forum

QUOTE
The perth Mint has gold certificates called PMG's , issued by its subsidiary, Gold Corporation. Hidden in one of its reports is the following Gem:

QUOTE


Gold Corporation continues to be the owner of the gold bullion backing the PMG [ie, certificate]. However,
even though Gold Corporation holds gold bullion in order to back the PMGs, it is not required
to do so and does not hold gold bullion for the benefit of the Holder."

QUOTE



The PMG's are a call Warrant, and "backed by the WA Government". However, if there is no gold to buy, tough titties.


I was thinking of the gold certs rather than the newer GOLD ETF.
My appologies.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2020, 09:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Damn, missed it again!
Was washing my hair.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2020, 06:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

I think I may have mentioned this in the long distant past (around 2012 I think), but it remains as warning.
From Chuck Butlers newsletter

QUOTE
Speaking of Gold… The good folks at GATA sent me this quote from Egon Von Greyerz, so here goes: “The ETF market is primarily a paper market or at best a market which consists of gold leased from central banks. When there is major buying of the biggest gold ETF, GLD, the Swiss refiners seldom see an increase in sales. Instead the bullion banks are lending central bank gold to the ETF. For that reason, anyone who buys gold for wealth preservation should never buy a gold ETF but real physical gold."

The gold certificates from perth Mint fit this characteristic. There may or may not be sufficient physical gold to back them up in case of a liquidity crisis.

And then there was this gem from Blacklist News
QUOTE
The global elites' techno-fantasy of a completely centralized future, The Great Reset, is addressed as a future project. Too bad it already happened in 2008-09. The lackeys and toadies tasked with spewing the PR are 12 years too late, and so are the critics listening to the PR with foreboding.

Simply put, events outran our understanding of them. The future already manifested while we were trying to cram the present arrangement into an obsolete conceptual framework.

In broad-brush, the post-World War II era ended around 1970. The legitimate prosperity of 1946-1970 was based on cheap oil controlled by the U.S. and the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Everything else was merely decoration.

The Original Sin to hard-money advocates was America's abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, but this was the only way to maintain hegemony. Maintaining the reserve currency is tricky, as the nation issuing the reserve currency has to supply the global economy with enough of the currency to grease commerce and stock central bank reserves around the world.

As the global economy expanded, the only way the U.S. could send enough dollars overseas was to run trade deficits, which in a gold standard meant the gold reserves would go to zero as trading partners holding dollars would exchange the currency for gold.

So the choice was: give up the reserve currency and the hegemony of the U.S. dollar by jacking up the dollar's value so high that imports would collapse, or accept that hegemony was no longer compatible with the gold standard. It wasn't a difficult decision: who would give up global hegemony, and for what?


I would recommend the reading of the full article. It has some devastating charts on how the richest elites have taken even greater shares of the wealth of the world.

Whether Trump or Biden/Harris end up in the white house is completely irrelevant.
The mega rich continue to get mega richer.
Tough shit for everyone else.

Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2020, 02:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Up to 0.155 today. Up nearly 30% in a little over a week.
As is my normal policy, sold half today and keep the rest.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2020, 02:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Thanks for this one Nip, added some as a speccy today.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 18 2020, 08:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Much has been written (particularly by one D Trump) about voter fraud in the US.
There is almost always a rider at the end that says something like "without any proof".
Well, they may have some now.
From NBC

QUOTE
A man who tried to run for mayor in Hawthorne is among two people charged in a voter fraud case in which thousands of fraudulent voter registration applications were allegedly submitted on behalf of homeless people, the Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office announced Tuesday.

Carlos Antonio De Bourbon Montenegro -- also known as Mark Anthony Gonsalves -- was set to be arraigned Tuesday in a downtown Los Angeles courtroom on 18 felony counts of voter fraud, 11 felony counts of procuring a false or forged instrument, two felony counts of perjury and one felony count of conspiracy to commit voter fraud, along with nine misdemeanor counts of interference with a prompt transfer of a completed affidavit, according to the District Attorney's Office.

Montenegro, 53, allegedly submitted more than 8,000 fraudulent voter registration applications between July and October, as well as allegedly falsifying names, addresses and signatures on nomination papers under penalty of perjury to run for mayor in Hawthorne.


Now before anyone jumps down my throat about being a right wing Trump supporter, as I have said before, I have no skin in this game.
I am not supporting one side or the other.
I am merely pointing out that the US voting system has more holes than a colander.
In this instance, its highly unlikely that this would overturn the results in CA, its a 40 million plus state, that has consistently been pro democrat in most recent times.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2020, 10:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

This you tube has a young nine year old Dutch girl singing Opera.
Quite amazing voice.
Just skip over the intro stuff till you get to her singing.
Brought tears to me eyes.
Talent

mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Nov 17 2020, 04:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,106

Land tax is a politicians dream. Instead of only getting stamp duty on a sale, the gov gets something every year.
And they can index it!
So then it does not matter if there is a housing boom or ust, they can budget on a fixed amount every year.
Don't know why they have not done this already!
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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