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Lizard
Posted on: Aug 26 2012, 05:47 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well done on the arbitrage, Wolvy. smile.gif

I'm on the wrong side of the Tasman, so didn't stay around for the franking credits... but was odd here as woke up morning of the scheme meeting to the news report that the very same day the NZ Teachers Payroll system was finally going to be transferred over to the new system. Didn't mention the vendor name, but we know it is Talent2. They have been advertising locally for quite some time for payroll administrators for their new centre... the whole thing has taken 2 years longer than planned, and apparently at a cost of $30m.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 3 2011, 07:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I'm unsure if there is a logic flaw in that Economic Collapse Blog.... I've wondered for a few years what happens at that point in the "money creation" process where a reserve bank buys government bonds in order to "print money". Presumably, the bonds remain a debt on government books, but are the bond assets also added to the government books to offset them? Which I suppose comes down to whether or not the balance sheet of a reserve bank (or in the US case, the federal reserve) are consolidated in government accounts?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Apr 5 2011, 07:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I think ASIC has to not object to a scheme in order for the court to approve it. In particular, ASIC say they will object if a scheme would deprive shareholders of the benefits or protections under a takeover. The court also has to be satisfied that the scheme has not been proposed to avoid compliance with takeover requirements in Ch 6 of the corporations act.

Some starting points if anyone wants to look into this route.
RG60 - ASIC (pdf)

Though from a quick read, I think case law to date has shown that the regulator just requires that schemes provide the same level of disclosure as in a takeover.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 14 2011, 06:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

77cps - is this the chance to buy more we've been looking for? Or do they own a Japanese power station I missed somewhere in my reading??? ph34r.gif

(Okay, I know some smart cookie is going to point out that I should have been awake for todays 71cps low!)
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 9 2011, 01:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I agree with the blog writer - after going through a pile of HY reports, HSN was one of the few that came in ahead of my expectations (or at least the expectations prior to the forecast upgrade).

I only have a few and tried to grab some more, but missed them. So have been waiting for them to come back a bit to add...

... perhaps other holders are in the same boat and that is why there haven't been more posts! biggrin.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 25 2011, 02:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Looks to me like this could be the year HIT finally recovers from the Tech-wreck sell-down...

At 5cps, market cap is a mere $1.5m, with cash of $536k at last report and no debt. Also other liquid assets including listed securities (unknown), that help to bring the current assets less total liabilities close to market cap.

Better still, they are profitable. Not only did they report a $136k NPAT (almost all from operations) for 2010, they have also indicated that the first quarter alone of 2011 saw revenue up 49% and profits at $200k NPAT for the quarter, plus gains on listed investments. Forecast at agm was for FY NPAT of $500k - $750k. Could be on the light side if the substantial increase in AusTender contracts is any indication.

Downside of course is lack of liquidity which is deterring buyers, while sellers must surely be deterred by the low share price. Some improvement of late, but possibly half year report (likely out early Feb) can help get them to a market cap worth the ink in this post. Given the difficulty of getting in (and perhaps back out), this is only one for the very patient!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 10 2010, 02:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911



Try this:Cash is King for Investors Around the World

oops, sorry arty, looks like you already had it...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 29 2010, 07:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Yes, you are right and he is now gone.

However, the handling of this restructure seems to say it all about GPG... the value is just not there to return!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 28 2010, 07:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I thought it was a directors responsibility to do their best for shareholders - not to avoid conflict with other Board members.

I also don't see a problem with him choosing to change direction on a proposal after having had the chance to receive shareholder feedback.

Personally, I think Tony Gibbs proposal has some sense to it, whereas the previous proposition appeared to be pointless.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 14 2010, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Will the UK emergency budget and a postulated rise in capital gains tax from 18% to 40% affect GPG's net profits from any transactions?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 11 2010, 07:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
Mr Goodson said his favoured option – a view he had expressed to GPG "recently" – was to sell non-core assets and use the cash for a share buyback.


I second that!!!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 10 2010, 05:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Plastic,

You might enjoy reading the Shareholder Proposal on the TUR notice of meeting out today. Funny to see a shareholder attempting to promote the type of asset-stripping play on TUR that would have been a classic Brierley play in his earlier days...

I think it might have been Winner69 that pointed out on another channel that, in GPG, Ron Brierley has created the very type of company he used to love to take on and unwind! Amusing, eh?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 9 2010, 05:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well, the only assumption that can be made is that both the ASX and the company accept the sell-off as being justified by the announcement that started it...
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 8 2010, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

With all this coming out, it is apparent that the "plan" has never really had real substance as far as realising additional value other than just a gradual sell-down (starting with Coats) of non-Australian assets and the spin-off of the Aussie assets into a new vehicle. This raises a whole lot of issues - a spin-off could hardly be value for small holders if it leaves them with unmarketable parcels of shares or units in the new vehicle. Nor is it going to be easy to sell off major assets at a premium price with a market that knows they are a "very willing" seller.

The whole decision-making process seems to be entirely based around Ron's desire to stick to his original plan and retire GPG along with his own retirement - whether it makes sense at this time or not. In my view, they should sell management rights into a UK Investment Trust company to manage and perhaps wind-down (on-market share buyback?) - it could hardly be more expensive than the current management and there would be no need for rushed decisions.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 8 2010, 07:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

As I see it, the problem is the extent of the downgrade leaves it wide-open as to their cash position. Who would have believed that their results were so dependent on one milestone payment - and that the costs associated with that milestone don't seem to have been treated as "work in progress" or capitalised, implying no certainty of payment? Either that, or the entire remainder of the iSoft business is of marginal profitability. Whatever, the answer, we won't really know how things sit until accounts are received.

For once, management aren't providing any reassurance - they appear deliberately vague. Even more concerning, they would no doubt have received urgent phone calls from major institutional holders and don't appear that they have reassured them either...

... all this adds to a dubious scenario - either there is real or imagined risk of financial embarrassment which could lead to massive dilution or complete loss. The silence from management suggests the risk could well be real... and if it isn't, then they owe their shareholders an explanation for not squelching the rumour.

I reluctantly sold out half before the Morecambe Bay announcement and the other half as soon as I got the chance to process the numbers in it.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jun 4 2010, 05:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

This looks like it could be a big coup for Adacel:
Boeing receives $1.7bn FAA contract for NexGen
QUOTE
Boeing (NYSE:BA - News) has won a major research & development support contract worth up to $1.7 billion for the Next-Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.

Prime focus areas of the contract include air traffic management modeling and simulation as well as the full integration of ground and airborne technologies and operations across all vehicle types, including commercial and military aircraft, general aviation, unmanned aerial systems, and rotorcraft. Boeing will perform work that will demonstrate NextGen procedures in real time on a large scale within the current air traffic system.


..and the relevance to Adacel?
QUOTE
The Boeing team also includes Adacel, Ensco, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Harris, Honeywell, Jeppesen, Jerry Thompson & Associates, Mosaic ATM, Spectrum Software Technology Inc., Tetra Tech AMT, and the Washington Consulting Group.



  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: May 8 2010, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Just for you, Plastic:

QUOTE
I think the focal point of this year's Annual Report is the outlook section which refers to the return of value to shareholders and the intention to have a process in place by the time of today's AGM.

That part is literally true insofar as we do have a process in place and which is no mere formality.

GPG shares are listed on 3 different stock exchanges, we have direct investments and businesses (quite apart from Coats) in 4 countries, and most of the shareholders are in New Zealand but there are, in addition, significant institutional holders in the United Kingdom, Australia, Asia and USA.

Also, GPG is incorporated in the United Kingdom, where corporate bureaucracy is simply spiralling out of control.

That is a model which no longer works for GPG but formulating structural changes where what shareholders already own is not eaten up in excessive taxes and other charges is a very complex equation.

However, we are making progress and will continue to do so.

In terms of GPG's 20 year history, a few more weeks, or months, if necessary, is not critical.

Much better to reach the right conclusion rather than anything more precipitate but recognising that, inescapably, substantial changes cannot be indefinitely postponed.

Shareholders will be kept informed, as and when decisions are made.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: May 5 2010, 02:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I don't see how they'll be able to say anything that will satisfy the holders. There is no obvious route to return value to shareholders, unless of course, they plan to delist it and operate as a managed fund, allowing unitholders to redeem at NAV at the end of each month? That at least closes the gap. Then it comes down to their accounting for NAV - and of course, they would have to sell assets each month to redeem. It is always possible they have a buyer lined up for Coats, but that would seem premature given that Coats has not yet conclusively turned around.

There are plenty of other "half-answers" where they could dish out a fraction of the shareholders value, but they risk leaving people with unmarketable parcels if they in specie distribute shares in core holdings or even pay out cash.

On top of that, we have the Euro crisis in full swing and unlikely to be resolved before Friday, so they will have that as a reason to defer on action.

So my assessment is that the agm stands a high chance of disappointing. (Based on past announcements, probably the quickest receipt of agm announcements from NZ will be by searching the LSE announcements on Saturday morning, or possibly the GPG website).
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: May 5 2010, 08:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Seems like a significant contract announcement (via press release).

Ukraine Awards Adacel Contract to Supply MaxSim ATC Simulators

Should also hear something re takeover discussions by Friday, given the exclusivity period due to expire tomorrow?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 13 2010, 05:31 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Daggie,

ISF has been a disappointment - probably my worst one in a while. I apologise to anyone I encouraged in holding this share.

While I still think ISF has huge potential, I have lost the conviction. I used to feel IBA was very close to/aware of their shareholders, trying hard to ensure they were rewarded. Somehow, I feel they lost their way. Perhaps they were driven down this path by necessity. Still, when it takes 3 days to find out from an overseas newspaper what is pushing around the share price (i.e the reported problems at Morecambe Bay), then I feel bemused. When results season brings negative surprises, I feel irritated. And when the company is pushing on into the next big investment phase (US) before delivering for shareholders on the last 3 capital raisings... then I really don't feel like tagging along as a supporter.

...I may still continue to hold some (as part of a diversified portfolio), but I will no longer do so with any enthusiasm. I am sure there will be more good trading in ISF, but I will trade it without trust from here on.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 5 2010, 07:52 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Made it into the All Ords on the latest re-jig.

Nice pick up in FUM in February too.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 24 2010, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

No, they aren't accounting for any benefit from it.

I keep trying to find evidence of any hearing dates, but never get anything. Very unclear on progress. Wouldn't rate their chance of success very highly - there would surely have to be very unusual circumstances?
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 22 2010, 02:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Their last SSH notice was in November when they had sold down to 10.65%. They only have to file for every 1% reduction, so they get to sell another 800k before they need to file another. There's been about 840k through since the last notice, but it's likely not all of them would come from the one seller.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 22 2010, 12:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I get the impression HHL are still selling this stock. If they want to clear the decks, it might be a long wait for this trade to progress.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 22 2010, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Looks like the remains of HNG's holding just cleared through at 50cps. Last chance buy now for the re-rate through cum-div?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 20 2010, 05:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Thanks Anne - it is interesting to look at the eps figures like that. (I often think I need to add something into my spreadsheets that retains the historic info).

Despite the lack of forecast, it looks to me as though it should be able to at least match first half in the current period - I thought there might have been a seasonal effect with better first half, but looking through the pre-GFC era, they actually did quite a bit better in the second half in the 2006/2007 years. There is no sign of one-offs in the first half - revenue is pretty constant but margins up - I'd say probably partly due to AUD strength and partly due to cost control. Would expect these factors to remain in place for most of the second half.

On that basis, and assuming a buyer can get all they want at 50cps, it can be picked up at a forward P/E of 3.8, yield of 14% (plus franking), EV/EBIT of 2.9, with ROIC of 25%, Pr/NTA of 0.82 and net debt/equity of 9%. I honestly can't remember seeing anything this cheap on so many parameters - and the reason for being cheap seemingly just one large seller who has openly stated an intent unrelated to AMO's prospects.

Also a rare case of a Graham-Newman "Working Capital Bargain", where Current Assets net of Total Liabilities ($17.3m) is greater than Market Cap ($15.3m at 50cps). (This is only the third time I've picked up a stock that met this - both the other two times turned out very well).
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 19 2010, 07:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Just another thought on the inventory - looking back over the previous few years, it looks as though they tend to have higher inventory at end of first half, so perhaps a reflection of stock held going into the post Christmas sales.

Was also surprised the DRP was not activated, despite low cashflow. Can hardly see them borrowing to fund it (their existing facility is limited to $5.2m according to last annual report), so am hopeful they might be funding out of post-Christmas cashflow from sell-down of inventory.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 19 2010, 07:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Result in as forecast. Wouldn't like to see any more inventory creep in 2h10 without a jump in revenue. Dividend well up. Very cheap on most metrics, but the outlook was pretty neutral. Was hoping that HGL would have managed to quit their remaining holding by now, but must still have over 1m shares left to sell, so will have to see if the divi is attractive enough to clear the overhang.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 26 2010, 07:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
If only you'd bought in 1994 Lizard. Check third to last para.


Have they allowed for 1998 consolidation? The shares listed at 45cps (90cps equivalent current). They've handed out the 10% bonus issue and about a 1% div each year. Unless there has been some other capital return I'm missing, there doesn't look to be 16% pa compound in it. But happy to be corrected.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 24 2010, 02:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I think Brierley is a bit delusional about the extent of his talents and business – I first bought in 1996 at around 81cps.  Since then, they’ve paid out 10% bonus shares every year, but also consolidated 2 for 1 at one stage.  So overall, the returns are minimal to today’s price.  Now there may be “hidden value”, but there could just as easily have been hidden value back then.  It is hard to see that they have really met their objectives.

Originally, Brierley talked like a white knight, out to save poor beleaguered NZ investors by providing them with a single retirement vehicle that they could trust.  He always said the company would have a finite life, although I thought originally he was talking 10 years rather than 20.  However, like all these honourable types (and the MFG team might be another), the reality ends up disappointing.

Still, I think GPG is good value here and he will be able to recognise alot of value beyond book value – it is a pity they want to exit in a hurry as their real expertise is really cyclical recoveries rather than value imo.  So they are in a box seat for that with alot of their holdings.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 11 2010, 05:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Yes, very irritating that, as I had my eye on it. Last month they beat me to CDD, so I am going to have to work out their publication dates and buy sooner! lmaosmiley.gif .

Nevermind, hope it will come off again. The half yearly nothing to get excited about, so might as well wait until that is under the belt now.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

smile.gif Knew I could count on you to recognise me.

Yes, AMO looks good here - though at this rate, it will take HGL 15 months to sell their 1.5m shares. Difficult to know what AMO prospects are over that sort of period.

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 7 2010, 06:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Some good news for iSoft. It appears the FSA (UK Financial Services Authority) is going to charge former iSoft directors rather than the company itself for the misleading accounting practices (prior to acquisition by IBA). They have now discontinued investigations into the company. (It was possible the company could have incurred a significant fine).
iSoft Latest News
QUOTE
6 January 2010
iSOFT welcomes UK FSA decision to discontinue investigation
iSOFT Group Limited (ASX: ISF) – Australia's largest listed health information technology company – today welcomed the decision by the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) to discontinue its investigation into iSOFT Group plc under S397 Financial Services & Markets Act 2000.

iSOFT Group Limited (formerly IBA Group Limited) acquired UK-based iSOFT Group plc in October 2007 post the events that were the subject matter of the investigation.

iSOFT Group Limited cooperated fully with the FSA throughout the investigation, which involved former management of iSOFT Group plc and had no bearing on any of the current management or employees of iSOFT Group Limited.

None of the former iSOFT Group plc directors that were investigated are employed by iSOFT Group Limited or any subsidiary of the company.

“The FSA result brings to a conclusion one of the remaining legacies of the former iSOFT which we acquired in 2007,” said Gary Cohen, iSOFT Group Limited Executive Chairman & CEO. “We cooperated fully with the investigation and welcome the FSA’s decision.”

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 01:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Yes, another good month for MFG. Unless there is another major turmoil on world markets, MFG have several factors working in their favour:
  1. Rise in value of underlying shareholdings within MFF, MGF, MIF
  2. Reduction in discount to NTA for MFF holdings
  3. Increased FUM due to performance, giving increased fee revenue
  4. Re-rating of the value of the funds business to more "normal" levels (i.e. 10-15% of FUM)
  5. Probable entry into S&P 500/(300?) encouraging greater coverage


The growth in FUM is pretty impressive - at this rate, will catch up with HHL by 2011.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jan 6 2010, 06:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Yeti,

If I read it right, it was effectively TAG Pacific that sold the shares - it is possible the ISF director (as a director of TAG) influenced that decision, but TAG will have had their own reasons and I wouldn't put too much weighting on it - more likely they just have other opportunities in their sights and wanted to free up some funds.

Go back and read TAG's agm statement if you want to get a feel - they are very supportive of iSoft but also have other growth initiatives that they may require more cash for.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 27 2009, 05:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Agent Cooper,

I figure net asset value must be about 70cps based on market value of assets - MFF has a 17% discount to NTA (excluding deferred tax assets) which translates to about 5% discount for MFG assets overall. That leaves the funds management business valued at around $25m for $602m of FUM.

Also, as you point out, FUM has grown by more than 50% in five months. Still small, but might have overtaken AEF now (although AEF has a higher fee structure, so will earn more fee revenue - also a higher cost structure).

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 24 2009, 08:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

The NTA for MFF has finally started to break north in the last few weeks, with forex no longer negating the gains in share prices. Good for MFF. Double good for MFG.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think MFG is in the All Ords yet - maybe a candidate in 2010?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

What is really sad is that I sold out at mid-30's a week before the first announcement...

...and that despite believing they were worth 90cps, I didn't re-enter at mid-50's post-ann cos I hate getting AUD cheques in the mail (being in NZ), so didn't bet on there being enough in it. Sigh.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 22 2009, 12:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

This has turned into a good old-fashioned bidding war! All the way from initial offers indicated at 60-70cps up to the current $1.35... and that was from a starting price in the low-mid 30's when they first mentioned it.

Anyone else watching? Seems like a good sign for the tenor of takeovers as a whole in 2010. I'm thinking we might see those large enough to get finance snaffling up the technology and growth companies that aren't (and currently many are still quite cheap).
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 20 2009, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

My understanding of PEB's test is that it IS prognostic (advantage over diagnostic).

While what PEB is achieving is great, there are others operating in the same space with bigger budgets and (seems to me) faster timelines. I don't understand enough to know who controls what parts of the IP, but, on the surface, it doesn't seem there is alot of protection given the number of similar projects developing in parallel.

PEB is a good little company, but their chances of becoming the number one player in this market segment seem remote given those they are up against. I'd hate to suggest they do a GEN and sell their IP for the cost of its development, but I'd be cautious about their odds of actually doing any better through the "commercialisation" route unless they can get themselves aligned with a much larger player.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 20 2009, 08:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Australia might struggle under the weight of production-related emissions, but check out the burden for New Zealand. We have a particularly high level of agricultural production per capita and low use of fossil-fuels in electricity production (well over 70% from renewable sources in 1990) which makes it particularly difficult to make emissions cuts using current technology.

Here's the link to statistics on NZ greenhouse gases at 1990-2007 (refer table 2.2.1):
NZ Greenhouse Gas Inventory

By reference to the table, for New Zealand to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% below 1990 levels yet maintain current agricultural production (represented by methane and NO2 from fertiliser use) appears a practical impossibility without some substantial discovery which would reduce methane production by ruminating animals or some radical improvement in farming practice which would enable elimination of nitrogenous fertiliser. As can be simply calculated, current CO2 production from transport and other sources would need to be reduced by around 75% - suggestions? Plant the country in pine?
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 26 2009, 04:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

A read on LPG cylinder safety issues in parts of China:
Serial Reports on 2009 Gas Safety Investigation
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 24 2009, 07:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Some interesting articles on anti-counterfeiting/2d barcode technology etc:
Fighting Counterfeit - The Boardroom Perspective
Digital Authentication Technology
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 22 2009, 04:55 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Very generous offer Kahuna. Wondering if the portfolio could be done as two threads - one for discussion that everyone can post on and see if SS will provide a separate thread/forum for the portfolio updates and summaries that only you can post on? I can imagine that given the level of interest, a single thread might become too cluttered to follow easily. Just a thought.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 20 2009, 12:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well Austender website shows they've just picked up another $44k of purchase orders for Australian govt organisations if that helps tongue.gif

More seriously though, having kept a lazy eye on Austender for various companies, I'm rather cautious on large-value capital goods. The rush of stimulus orders seems to be waning from government sources and probably dried up even faster from non-government.

Much as I enjoy your posts, FredSmart, I do feel your intuition may be a little too inclined towards wishful thinking.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Thanks Remlif.

Perhaps the major shareholders should consider taking it private.

I still like it alot as a long term business, but as a small shareholder in a publicly listed company, there might be better places to be for a while.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 19 2009, 07:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Okay, I've now pored over the agm releases but appears they added very little over the annual report. I'm guessing from the revenue chart that they're working on about $70m revenue for FY10. However, off the same EBITDA ratio as last year, that only works out at about $4.6m NPAT (tax normal). That's not counting the likely negative impact of forex. Plus, given the lack of announcements this year, the order book going into the second half of this year seems likely to be considerably weaker.

I've pulled my valuation back to 74cps.

Any other views?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 18 2009, 01:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Wasn't the agm this morning? Did anyone go?

I've been keeping half an eye out for an agm speech, but none so far.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 17 2009, 12:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Excuse a dumb question, Ed, but why are they flying a select group of investors or analysts to Nexbis KL this week when they could be providing all interested investors equally with the same strategy presentation and demonstration of technology at the agm next week?

I hope the uninvited 3400-odd investors don't mind subisidising the lucky few being wined and dined.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 11 2009, 07:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Yeti,

As I read it: Lorenzo Primary Care refers to software for your local G.P. vs the Lorenzo Regional Care which has been the major focus of NPfIT development and is for hospitals. Isoft has in place legacy software for G.P's, but hasn't done much to keep developing it, since their development has understandably been focussed on delivering Lorenzo for hospital settings.

Delivering for G.P's is still part of the plan for the CSC/Isoft group, but it is a couple of years away - comes with LRC release 4.0 and they have only delivered 2.0 so far. By delivering Lorenzo Primary Care in the interim, iSoft can help manage the migration from their legacy iSoft systems without losing G.P's to other software providers along the way. This has become more important with the increased likelihood of a revised NPfIT in which systems may not be limited to specified providers, but may be opened up to other systems that can provide interoperability.

So overall, while the admission that they've been losing some of their existing iSoft G.P clients is not great, it is good that they have acknowledged the issue and put in place a plan to manage it. It is also still secondary to the revenue they will earn from secondary care. Once 2.0 goes live in March (she writes with confidence! stun.gif ), the barriers to rolling out Lorenzo will be much reduced.

Having written all this, I am disappointed with the ISF share price and even more disappointed with my reading of where it was heading. I still believe it is worth at least $1.20 - $1.30 and am not at all sure what it is that I've missed. So, yes, am still holding mine too.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 4 2009, 12:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Looks like a bit of "sell the fact" went on today.

Might be value around 50cps. Biggest problem still remains knowing what their capex/working capital needs will be and whether dilution might still stand in the way of a good investment.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 4 2009, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Okay, just to reassure myself, I've taken a look at the list of FSA recent fines.

I can't see that it's likely they'd fine iSoft an amount concomitant with the share price weakness.

Any other suggestions for the recent break in support?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 4 2009, 09:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I've been starting to wonder if the market is counting in a massive fine in relation to the former (pre-IBA) accounting irregularities, currently under investigation. The investigation gets a mention under contingent liabilities in the report, but reads more like an inconvenience (assisting the Financial Services Authority...).

Otherwise, I'm really scratching to see what the market doesn't like.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 30 2009, 08:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Looks like the market is panicking as to whether the November deadline for Lorenzo will be met at Bury. Apparently missed the first target date for go-live, of 26th October, so I guess it was that which has sparked this pull back.
E-Health Insider
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 29 2009, 08:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Can't complain, though I thought directors would have wanted at least 60cps. As you say, sign of the times. Commercial construction only 2 years into the 7 year famine.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 28 2009, 07:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Did you buy it as LRX or ATQ? Either way, I guess it's a completely different beast as the only thing left in it is a piece of RDF. wacko.gif

I wouldn't normally go back to a stock that had as many problems as the former incarnations, but it is starting to look like quite a different beast under Nightingales/Lawrence Case. After abandoning this share a couple of years ago, I bought in again about 3 months ago at 2.1cps and added a few more yesterday at 2.0cps after reading the quarterly. Have to say that today's action finally paid off for the boredom of the last few months!

High cash backing plus profits (and future contracts) is usually a good recipe, although in micro-caps it can be a bit volatile and unreliable - $4m is easily frittered. I'm only lightly hitched to this cart.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 28 2009, 04:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Apparently a small newsletter writer recommended it.
(Actually, I recommended it on another forum yesterday, but it didn't have quite the same effect. lmaosmiley.gif)
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 20 2009, 10:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I didn't factor in the AGM with that comment, did I?

Positive outlook and EBIT $1.37m in first quarter, so looks on track to achieve or better my forecast of $3.5m NPAT. At current 40.5cps, that's a P/E of around 7.2.

CKL moving too though - I think nearly all the value small-caps are having a run at present! (Tends to be the last stage in any major rally before things retreat.)
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 19 2009, 07:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I agree with the potential and still holding mine, though probably needs to consolidate here for a bit.

Our old friend CKL looks like it might be trying to get up some steam for a push north though.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 19 2009, 07:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

One unusual thing in the ISF chart is the way volume completely dried up for almost a month over Christmas/January. That's a lot longer than for most shares.

Other than that period, volume is fairly steady, but lower than might be expected for a company of ISF's market cap - I just ran through a list of the closest 25 stocks by market cap and ISF came in about 5th from the bottom in terms of average daily value turnover (last 3 months vol x current sp).

I agree that it seems to trade oddly - price behaviour seems rarely linked to news or markets as far as I can see. But most likely there's a simple explanation.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 9 2009, 03:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

So TPID says they're marking China's 130m LNG tanks, while Nexbis refers to LPG tanks? Someone is confused.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 1 2009, 04:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I liked this one from a local financial advisor:
QUOTE
Question: If a ‘V’ shaped recovery does not occur (recover on first attempt), and then a ‘W’ shaped recovery does not occur (recover on second attempt) clearly the alphabet should be discounted as an economic theory. So, do we plug in the ECG monitor to estimate a future pattern?

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 30 2009, 11:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
"...without private debt levels again rising relative to GDP..."


Well that seems to be the plan here in New Zealand:
Housing Borrowing Rises in August
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 30 2009, 08:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

A bit late for NLS, but looks like Cavidi still toddling along with more testing approvals and a few $100k sales to Botswana:
Aidsmap article

However, it seems from the recent financials that NLS is pretty much diluted to nothing in respect of Cavidi, bar possible returns from sales in China. At the prices being quoted, it is likely this will be more of a charitable effort than a profitable business.

Have to say, this one was an eye-opener to me as to how a company can simply fail to file a report on time and slither off the boards indefinitely without even a puff of smoke.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 26 2009, 06:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Looks like FUM has increased by another 4% to $500m in the month between prelim report and annual report. Most of the $19m increase seems to have been in the Magellan Global Fund which is up by $17m or about 17%.

I've sold down the short term trade recently, but left enough in the long term holdings to keep interested.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 23 2009, 04:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Lol Arty. And if they're like my mother, they've probably forgotten it's under there. Gee, we're still hunting in the framing for the money my father hid before he died. weirdsmiley.gif

Btw, over here in NZ, I reckon the average oldie only needs to put away about $850k before they're paying more in tax on the interest (in a typical year/portfolio) than they're getting in super. Of course, covering their public health cost might take a bit more...
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 18 2009, 08:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hey, it's generous enough that you're writing quality posts on a fresh air salary - no one expects to proof-read every keyboard slip-up!

Anyway, guess we know who sold the 500k shares now.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 18 2009, 07:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I thought todays presentation was pretty much all "old hat" - they've been tossing those valuations around for 18 months now - I think we all get the point, but just dubious that "mid-cycle" actually exists... particularly while we watch currency pressures building for them.

What would have been nice is some comment as to whether the upturn in housing starts and house sales is showing any sign of translating into sales volume... or perhaps some sign that Armour Wood/Lifespan is moving off the shelves. Since we didn't get that, I'd assume they had nothing positive to report yet - so stuck preaching their message of theoretical hope!

Given the results in second half 09, it looks rather like we'll be wearing a first half NPAT loss this year unless there's a second quarter rush into home decorating... a hard time to be suggesting M & A activity to shareholders, despite the counter-cyclical logic.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 18 2009, 12:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Plastic,
I believe it is on their web-site now - see here

Also, if you are using the NZX "My NZX" to download NZX pdf's, you may find it helps to delete "nzx." out of the url today as that is working for me (can't access files otherwise). You might want to download the RBC presentation which looks worth a read, though not one I'm following at present.

Let me know if it works for you, as nobody else seems to be complaining.

Cheers,
Liz
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 18 2009, 06:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Latest update on NHS project via CSC:
E-health Insider: Andrew Spence Interview
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 15 2009, 06:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Some more reading material for those interested (I think this is new, though undated):
Business News Americas

Contains an interview with Gary Cohen regarding health IT/iSoft business in Latin America.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 14 2009, 07:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

At risk of frustrating you further, daggie, this is a relevant article from the US - and iSoft/Lorenzo scores a mention:
Promise of stimulus money drives up health IT stock prices
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 14 2009, 02:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Daggie,

ISF is one of the more interesting shares in my varied portfolio. I have held it as a long-term "buy and hold" and at the same time, I have also traded it. I have had one small losing trade, but otherwise, it has been extremely good to me. Yet I only have to look at the 5 year chart to appreciate your frustration - the share price really hasn't done much at all, despite the massive growth in scale. Reflects the dilution that has been required to achieve that growth.

I am impressed by what management have been able to achieve for the business. I'd love to see them put more emphasis on achieving that for the share price!

Right now, I'm lucky enough to be sitting on 50-100% gains on all the parcels I hold and am more likely to reduce rather than add in coming months. I still think ISF is a great company, but I like to keep my bets diversified - IMF, MFG, TWO are some I put in a similar category where I trust management and am prepared to just buy the dips, sell the gains.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 12 2009, 06:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Looks like iSoft is in line to pick up this contract in November this year:
DHB wants $4.3m IT system for Lab

While the wording in the article is a bit unclear, the actual DHB proposal and recommendation can be read on-line too:
Proposal
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 11 2009, 05:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

GPG, as always, appear to be making a stingy/conservative offer. Usually pretty stubborn when they want their own way, so I'd say the odds of them getting what they want is quite high. Will be interesting to see what % they actually want, as at 30cps, it looks like they might be happy to pick up just another 5-10%.

I guess if you're a small shareholder, triage, you're unlikely to want to sell half into the offer. Real choice is either sell on-market during the offer, or go along for the ride and an old-fashioned bit of asset-stripping.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 7 2009, 02:00 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Daggie,

I read the Open Briefing from 26 August again and it made more sense. I think they want the $25m from the spp to pay down the contract finance they've inherited and of which $15m is in current liabilities (they've also been paying down the non-current). Cashflows this half are forecast to be on the light side, so I guess the spp deals with this. Also gives them the freedom to pick up bolt-on acquisitions if they see them.

By my calcs, $25m is less than 15% of the maximum they could get under an spp. So this is quite a conservative level of capital raising and priced accordingly.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 2 2009, 10:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Wren,
I didn't think they looked too bad when I went through the report, but not my area of expertise.

Base fees:
MFF - 0.3125%/qtr (roughly equivalent to 1.25% pa)
MGF - 1.26%pa
MIF - 0.96% pa

Performance fees don't look exceptional either - at 10% of the outperformance over the hurdle index plus requirement that return in the period exceeds the Aus govt 10-yr bond rate (so no performance fees last year).

I thought "normal" was around the 1-2% level for most funds, but I confess that I've not really looked at fund fee levels for a few years.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 2 2009, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I finally got around to reading their FY report yesterday and was pretty impressed by the growth in FUM - seem to have increased by 22% between year end and 21 August too. Not sure what the driver for that was - UBS?

I did a few calcs and provided their investment returns run a tad ahead of their benchmarks, I still think they look reasonably cheap here, despite the run up. Probably worth $1+? BUT highly leveraged to the performance of their funds and MFF still seems to be tacking into the wind with the US equity strategy.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 1 2009, 05:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

While I'm checking the news, this one is an infotaining read...
LA Times
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 1 2009, 04:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

FedBizOpps - fbo.gov

Did this trigger the run? US Army looking for an Adacel simulator? Doesn't look huge $'s though?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 31 2009, 12:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Maybe some fund manager just wants to book an end of month paper gain... VWAP 62.5cps, closing price 70cps...voila! Is that how it works?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 28 2009, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
It will be interesting to see if they got their act together in the second half on cost control etc


Yes they did....

QUOTE
..if so it could be a bargain down here.


....and, yes, it was.

Today was a good day.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 28 2009, 06:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Yes, they are one of the few small caps I have seen to achieve what they said they would over the last couple of years. I must admit, looked a bit wacky at the outset - and in some regards, I'm still not "sold" on them. But they're delivering for shareholders, which is what counts for now.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 27 2009, 02:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Good result from MAQ - ahead of forecast EBITDA and ahead of my March projection for NPAT, so that was a good outcome!

Share price has managed to put on near 50% in the last month and yet with $2.14 in cash at the bank and generating another 62cps in free cashflow, $3.70 still seems like a very reasonable price.

Still, based on history, the Tudehope's probably have plans for that cash that doesn't involve divs, but rather involve a 2 or 3 year wait for it to deliver increased returns...
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 22 2009, 05:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Go easy Daggie! It's only about 6 weeks since this was closing in the low 60's. You can expect a bit of profit taking. I'm no T.A.er, but the trend line is probably sitting at around the 77-78cps. I wouldn't be too concerned unless this level gets breached in the next week.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 20 2009, 06:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Further to below, most of the stats in the report are based on 9.5m shares on issue. However, post buyback, should be only 8.6 (the buyback shares not yet cancelled, so I suppose officially still on issue?). That takes cash per share up to $3.26 and eps from continuing operations to 59cps.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 20 2009, 05:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well according to the FY report, their strategy now is to focus on Lemtronics going forward, expansion etc. Hope that works. When I first started following this one back in around 2003 or 04, Lemtronics was a struggler.

Anyhow, prior to ann, sp was $3.85 ish. Then the report showed equivalent of $2.94 ps in net cash, 88cps in earnings (53cps for continuing ops) and a 50cps final div (took annual divs to 79cps). NTA at $4.40 (most of it tied up in liquid assets - cash, inventories and receivables net of payables). Buyers now at $4.40, sellers $5.00. Not too much of that should have been a surprise. Most of it (bar the divi) was in 1H09 and second half only seems to have delivered about $0.5m of that operating profit.

LMC always been dead cheap, but the gains on it have never been spectacular compared to market. However, it's all paid off in a slowdown - which seems to be the time to hold the "deep value but illiquid" stuff.

Trouble is that although it's still cheap, it's unlikely they'll beat this year's report in 12 months time.

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 19 2009, 07:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

By my calcs, the indications provided for FY10 work out at about $86m underlying NPAT in 2010 (around $55m reported NPAT after amortisation of acquired intangibles). In this case, I think it is fair to ignore the amortisation charge, as the acquisition seems to me to be a clear "one-off" event, rather than representative of an ongoing level of required investment.

Based on underlying NPAT, the (fully diluted) forward P/E is 11.2 at 90.5cps. In my view, "fair value" is currently probably somewhere in the $1.20-$1.40 range, though, as a long-term-growth hold, I'd be willing to hold it to considerably higher levels (personally, my discomfort level would be around $2.40 at present).

Overall the financials came in ahead of my back-of-an-envelope projections based on HY announcement, but slightly below what I'd calculated as possible at this time last year. However, there was increased dilution to take into account with the rights issue.

The main difference between this year and last year is that analysts probably will feel reassured by the lower debt levels and also the clear commentary on the NHS contract. For once iSoft directly acknowledged the possibility that NPfIT could be dismantled, but then also pointed out that the consequences, were this to happen, would more than likely be beneficial for iSoft. I think they made a good case in this regard.

I'm wondering if analysts will also take notice of the "compco" valuations based on the competitor stats. Given the data provided by iSoft, a simple analysis of average price/sales ratio for competitors would suggest ISF should be trading at around $1.34. Using average EV/EBITDA data gives a value for ISF of $2.52, but the range of comparatives for this ratio is quite dramatic, so there may be more analysis required of individual EBITDA make-up before seizing on that figure. Comparing directly with Cerner rather than the average gives a value of $1.26 - I'd say ISF growth prospects at EBITDA level might be a little higher than Cerner's, so $1.30+ seems about right.

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 17 2009, 07:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I just went back and had a look at JMB...

...looking pretty caned and hasn't even managed a bounce.

At last trade (36cps), market cap only $18m ish. Given they had $6.3m cash at Dec HY and made HY NPAT of $2.7m, it will be interesting to see what the FY brings.

Guess people aren't so sure about the mobile content business anymore... does operating cash in become investing cash out just to stay in the game? Or is there still a longer term business model in there?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Aug 3 2009, 01:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

... certainly has been a bargepole job! Now in receivership.

Sad to see it go. Always hoped there might have been a turnaround story in it one day - plenty of revenue, but the margins and capital structure looked unhealthier with every report and left too late for any radical turnaround measures to succeed.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 30 2009, 09:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Great announcement after-market from MAQ - sale of Singapore business (not been a great performer so far) for about $A8.8m. From last report, assets in Singapore were about $4.2m, so probably book a gain on sale. More spare cash, plus a future tie-up with Citic 1616 for calls between Australia and Asia.

It's about another 43cps in cash for MAQ and possibly an increase in net assets of 22cps if my assumptions are correct. Total cash per share must be well over $1.70 unless they've been having another capex spend-up (certainly not the message).

(Current sp $2.72)
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 30 2009, 04:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Yes, very solid result there Crooky. Amazed there are so few following this stock!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 29 2009, 07:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I'm pretty vague on IT, so don't take my info. Best places to follow what is happening are on e-Health Insider and the Tony Collins IT Blog.

I think iSoft have been positioning themselves in the "alternative" spot as well, with the .net platform and ability to integrate existing systems with Lorenzo Studio. However, I'm not certain of the competition in this space. It is possible that iSoft might still have a strong foothold, but there would have to be alot of uncertainty about the outcome of any upheaval in the contracts. (Well, at least there is alot of uncertainty in my mind!)
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 29 2009, 03:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Daggie,

The licence revenue due to iSoft under the UK NPfIT contracts totalled around 300m GBP at the time of acquisition by IBA. Payments are largely received from CSC on a calendar basis and this money is largely funding the development of Lorenzo - in particular the form being implemented within the UK. The installation of Lorenzo at 3 out of the 5 UK clusters should underpin revenue for iSoft from this product going forward. However, there have been many mutinous rumblings from various sectors, including government, about the late delivery of Lorenzo (and poor functionality delivered by the alternative, Cerner Millenium). Most of the delay in Lorenzo occurred prior to IBA involvement. However, so far there have only been a handful of trial installations of the early versions of Lorenzo. To complete the project will require a major roll-out across hospitals in the clusters over 3+ years. There will also be additional functionality added to the system, with some of the main purported advantages not arriving until release 2 or 3.

Earlier this year Christine Connelly, the director general of informatics, said Lorenzo must be implemented in any care-setting by November and “running smoothly” across one acute trust by March next year. These deadlines are indicative of the uncertainty around the project and the consideration being seriously given to a significant change in direction for the UK programme.

Given the size of the revenues involved and the strong position that iSoft stands to achieve in the UK market through this programme, any major change in the programme - particularly one directed at replacing the Lorenzo/Cerner Millenium systems with an alternative solution - would have to be a serious loss to iSoft.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 29 2009, 10:56 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Still one of my larger holdings.

I think there is possibly still alot of concern around the future of NPfIT and what this might mean for Lorenzo. Still more targets to hit and under alot of pressure. Dividends not likely to be very large. And there are alot of beaten up stocks to choose from for those who believe we've begun the economic recovery. However, looking forward has potential for very good cashflows and long term growth/divs.

I'm in ISF for a long term investment - virtually falling asleep holding it, but only real concern at present is keeping watch on NPfIT roll-outs, as I still think they need to succeed in this programme for my investment to perform!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 25 2009, 07:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Been a lonely ride on this one, from the 80cps in August last year when it pressed my "buy" button, through the 50cps low in October and then onwards to where we sit now at $2.52. A bright trade in a dark market. But with so many competing "value" opportunities in the market, I'm considering taking some off the table here and spreading it around a bit. Still value here, but the lack of liquidity has to make for cautious trading.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 25 2009, 07:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Been very quiet in KLM for a while and just a few small buyers to move the price back towards something that approaches "rational". Clearly still a long way off that, but someone cleared the 200k off the offer at 17.5cps yesterday, so on paper that 10cps buying is looking good. Market maybe starting to look through the dull results this year to what should hopefully be a better period next year.

My one caution in this stock is that (in my part of the world), margins for construction sub-contractors are still under increasing pressure and the tail end of the large projects conceived before the GFC is just fading out. So the real trough in sub-contractor profitability within commercial building sector may be about to hit in the coming 6-12 months, keeping the pressure on this stock for a little longer.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 25 2009, 07:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Turned my back on this one for a couple of months and missed the latest leg. Congrats to holders!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 25 2009, 07:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Good recovery last week! There was a good article on FN Arena yesterday re potential for them to be able to supply parts to Lockheed Martin.

I like this company - just hard to know how much capital they might need before they strike the jackpot on cashflow and that will depend very much on the shape of any deals they might strike. A takeover might be more likely, but I haven't checked the register to see if it is feasible. Thoughts?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 19 2009, 11:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Thanks AC. Always enjoy reading your views.

I purchased a few recently at 59-60cps (previously just had a handful acquired with MFF holding). If nothing else, their reports make for a refreshing read. The performance on the Global Fund was pretty impressive in the circumstances. As for MFF - if ever there was a stressful time to have set up an All-American investment fund based in AUD... must love a challenge!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Jul 18 2009, 08:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Another year on and the trend has turned for MFG - now a little up on last year at 62cps. However NTA at 31 Dec was down to 67cps and since then MFF NTA has fallen from 70cps to 66cps (excluding deferred tax assets). Are you still there Agent Cooper?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: May 4 2009, 05:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Plastic,

I'm still here and holding a handful of PEB. Nice to see some positive movement. Would be nicer if I knew the answer to "why now?", but I'll just plump for the "imminent commercialisation" excuse...
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: May 1 2009, 05:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

After first half result, the full year "profit upgrade" was not particularly surprising. Actually forced me to drop my NPAT projection from $7m to $6m. May upgrades are often conservative though.... might yet see another one.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Apr 30 2009, 06:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Sold C10 communications for $3.2m. Had already taken a dividend and capital return of $3.2m from the business prior, but it is not clear whether this was recently generated or existing cash. Compares with recent independent advisor report which came up with a value of $7.25m-$8.7m.

However, suspect transaction leaves them with cash pretty close to asset backing, plus Lemtronics business. Will be interesting to see what they choose to do from here - new acquisitions or exit strategy?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 29 2009, 03:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

No mention of the gastric diagnostic and melanoma?

Was weighing up today whether to throw in a few more $'s, but since 9cps is not a very significant discount to market and since they are perenially poor communicators with no record of commercialisation and unlikely to really have the cash for the required marketing effort....

Well, in this market, there are just too many other real opportunities with real cashflows to be buying dreams.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 25 2009, 01:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

From what I saw, there was about 5% of the company represented by a couple of orders on the offer at 10cps for a few days and hardly anyone else interested in selling. I think buyers were standing back to see how low the seller would go, given they appeared to have decided to quit at any cost. Then a couple of small buyers started munching and the larger watchers decided they'd better move in.

I see someone got near on 2% of the company in a single transaction worth about $120k today. Not a bad price for 2% of a company that has near on $160m annual revenue and no debt.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 20 2009, 06:16 AM


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Posts: 911

Another significant announcement out for NEW this morning, with trading on track for $100m sales in FY09 c.f. $40m in FY08. Share price has bucked the trend since results overcame scepticism in regard to their results forecast. Illiquidity is the nuisance though.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 6 2009, 04:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I'll take $4.36, based on a 10 yr dcf at 18% and the odds of a successful phase 3 (given we're practically contingent on phase 2 anyway).

...then again, $2.50 to be rid of the nausea...

... and I can probably find 25%pa elsewhere if I'm careful...
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 4 2009, 04:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

It is pretty difficult to set a price target from down here without looking like ramping. By my standards, MAQ looks very cheap here, but the low liquidity makes it a big risk and unattractive to institutions. Without (at least the promise of) a dividend, liquidity or takeover prospects then there is no reason for any shareprice to reflect fundamentals.

One unknown is what they might be committed to should the Optus bid win the NBN project. This may be another reason why they are keeping funds aside rather than paying dividends. Certainly their history suggests a preference for growth by investment - and by taking quite a long-term view on investment. In the past, the investment phase hasn't been too kind to holders. However, I haven't followed the NBN bid process particularly closely and the most recent useful information I could find was this article from November:
Terria NBN bid morphs into Optus bid

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 3 2009, 07:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Fairly solid full year result for Cavotec - NPAT up 27% in Euro's and 38% in NZD. Also good to see order book 21% higher at year end (Euro's) than previous year.

Still, disappointed to see the fall in NTA - mostly the result of paying for alot of intangibles/goodwill in their most recent acquisition. Doesn't seem the time to be doing too much of that. Debt also increasing in the face of both acquisition and increased demands for working capital as they build inventory and receivables required to fill recent large contract wins. So despite a strong result, a weaker balance sheet - less acceptable than it might have been a couple of years ago, but I doubt will become problematic...


  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 3 2009, 06:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

First half result came in at NPAT $3.12m (a little below my estimate, but I confess I probably didn't allow correct tax, instead assuming previous tax losses would nix any tax, which of course is no longer correct methodology!).

This was a strong result for MAQ and my main disappointment was that directors failed to make mention of any policy on dividends. I was also interested that the presentation made mention of "additional funding capacity in place". Given investment levels are forecast at fairly normal levels and MAQ have never shown signs of being acquisitive, it would be interesting to know how this cash is utilised. I am wondering if it is less surplus to the business than I had previously considered and that it exists on the balance sheet primarily as a result of timing of payments to creditors (mostly carriers)?

Meanwhile, looking forward, MAQ is forecasting continuing growth trend in EBITDA which is supported by trends in outsourcing IT - see the following article for an explanation: Macquarie Hosting announces a 30% increase in IT Infrastructure Outsourcing during 2008

EBITDA rose from $7.7m in 2H08 to $12m in 1H09. This is a bit of a leap off previous growth, so I'm not expecting it to be repeatable and am going to go with estimate of $14m for 2H09. As a result, I calculate a likely FY NPAT of $7.2m with additional increase in net cash of $6m in the second half. This would bring it to $1.52 per share of net cash at year. Forward (FY09) P/E of 3.4 at current price of $1.18 per share. (Forward Pr/NTA would be about 0.47 at these levels).
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 3 2009, 04:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
If ART621 passes the current clinical trials with any measure of success [and all indications are that it will do so otherwise this predatory takeover move by an American company would not be on the table]...


Whatever the outcome, Cephalon have taken care to cover their bases and timed this offer perfectly. With AAH not announcing results until after Cephalon are positioned (and having cleared the decks for them by removing Chiplin and dumping Promics), they get to offer a 70% premium over recent trading (pre-results). Yet Terms & Conditions clause (b) (ii) © allows them to walk away if the phase II trials, due to be announced while the offer is getting underway, are deemed to reduce the commercial viability of ART621.

Any premium realisable under this offer is only a premium over and above what the price might have been after announcement of a successful trial - unlikely their bid would then have been anywhere close to the "70% premium" they can currently market their bid at.

However, I personally would not be willing to stay in AAH after this bid with directors having shown their support for these tactics.

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Mar 2 2009, 08:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Independent Advisers reports always make amusing reading. It's nice to see the creativity on display as the report comes up with the "right" answer. Only once did I see a report that didn't recommend whatever it was the directors wanted recommended... always wondered what the directors did to rub them up the wrong way - and how much business the Advisers lost as a result...

This time, getting the right answer was never going to be too much of an issue, but was keen to see how they were going to come up with a valuation anywhere close to current market value given the level of cash LMC hold...after all, no adviser likes to come up with a result too far from what the market has already deemed a company to be worth... Answer: subtract 20% of the cash to make up for the fact the shares are illiquid.

I also enjoyed the effort which went into the analysis of the industries involved, only for them to plump (without any justification) on FY08 EBITDA as the sole basis of the earnings for Lemtronics. In fact, if there was a justification, it seemed to be saying that they'd selected this figure because, despite economic conditions, further growth was expected this year. They then selected an industry-average EV/EBITDA ratio to apply to earnings, largely justified by that currently being applied by the market to an unprofitable competitor. Similar sort of process for C10 communications.

Oddly, after then reaching the conclusion that the shares are worth $4.36-$4.92, they explain the current discount at which the shares are trading ($3.03) to be due to the lack of liquidity (wouldn't that already be covered by the subtraction of 20%), small company size (but so were the companies they benchmarked ratio's against) and depressed market conditions (weren't the EV/EBITDA figures selected from the same market conditions?). wacko.gif

Any way it's sliced, LMC looks cheap and the buyback looks good value for holders - provided anyone believes that the cash can be invested responsibly and that Lemtronics won't completely crash and burn.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Feb 2 2009, 02:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

New announcement from MAQ with forecast EBITDA increased to $12m (from $9-$10m). Plus cash in bank at 31st Dec now $27.8m (up from about $19m in June). Progress well exceeding what I'd inferred in November.

Today's ann equates to $1.35 in cash per share and I'd estimate NPAT for first half of at least $3.5m on market cap of about $23m at current price ($1.10). Not sure the market will care though unless they announce a dividend.

  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 27 2008, 07:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

In reply to: skorpian on Friday 26/12/08 03:54pm

Hi Skorpian

Can I chip in with a HY forecast of $4.1m (assuming minimal tax payable this half)?

(I just spent an hour on the calc and came up with the exact same figure as Henrietta, so I'll round up!)

I don't own any CST but it is looking interesting here. I've not had alot of success with pharma/biotech's in the past - but then again, not many are cashflow positive from ongoing operations.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 7 2008, 05:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I think from memory that when Kirk took the job in 2005, James Packer had recently commented that newspapers were "scary stuff" or something along that line. Not lightly said, I'm sure.

Went to a presentation on FXJ recently and came away unconvinced. Sure, it is cheap, but the metropolitans are still 20% of business and said that advertising revenue for the mets can fall by 50% in a slowdown. That's a big chunk of income and, although covenants were brushed over as "easily within", the EBITDA/interest ratio seemed challenging - though I'd guess this just means higher interest rates on more lenient covenants rather than anything catastrophic.

However, long term was my big concern. There didn't seem to be alot of acceptance as to the realities of the move to on-line. It's not so much internet penetration, but laptop and other portable on-line devices that will wreak the most damage to bulky and unwieldy newspapers.

Furthermore - while moving on-line is a sensible strategy, the barriers to competition are small and consumers can change preferred bookmarks quite rapidly. There seems to be minimal defence to competition and the proposed FXJ answer to this was "to have the best content" which to me seems naive as a defence. The Business Spectator and other such sources were referred to as being of limited readership/special interest type enterprises, some of which were set up mainly as a means of eventually on-selling the site (and FXJ didn't see any point in being a buyer - would rather create their own).

Seems to me that management are insulated in their view of the world and missing the real issues they are facing. I'm not sure exactly what the answers are - experienced, quality journalists can now happily avoid the editorial cross-strokes and set their own work schedules due to low entry costs, but eventually this leads to loss of newspapers and loss of the very training grounds that bred these independents. So perhaps a loss to journalism as a whole over the next decade or so as we all just make our own news?

I suppose in the end, I'd reluctantly agree with the McCarthy style.... the best bet left for FXJ is to run the newspapers as a cost-cutting cash cow for the next few years. And then I'd be looking for a completely new string to the bow.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 7 2008, 06:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Thanks PT. It is interesting to track these numbers.

NZX50 chart looks like it might fire off another short term entry signal next week if the market follows Wall St. Previously, using Phaedrus' "when to re-enter the market" charts gave a couple of earlier entries and exits during this downtrend - not providing spectacular gains in index value, but did give some great trades on individual stocks entered at the start of the period and traded on tight stops.

Unfortunately, Phaedrus' chart hosting seems to have timed out for now and the links are broken, so I am reduced to working off memory for the indicators and can only locate a few of them using freebie charts. While there is not yet confirmation from these, it appears possible that 1 or 2 good days this week could trigger the end of the current "no buy" period. Short term trades only and tight stops at this stage would be the go though (as if life wasn't hectic enough this time of year!).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 5 2008, 04:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Tenon agm presentations now available on their website for those who want to beat the NZX.

Forecasting Dec 09 EBITDA of $US6m - down a further $US1m on June 08 half year. Debt aiming for under $US45m by end of June 09 - assumedly achieved by positive cashflow through a combination of lower capex than depreciation and the use of the Bank of America receivables funding arrangement.

Forex hedging seems to be keeping much of the NZD:USD forex positives at bay until first quarter of calendar 09.

Tenon competition suffering badly and TEN wants to be able to pick up cheap acquisitions near the low.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 2 2008, 07:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Had a look at the full documentation. Given the new shares are not going to be listed anywhere and will require permission of the Bermudan Monetary Authority to transfer, the process appears to be designed as the "carrot and stick" approach to getting RPL's public shareholders to hand over shares and therefore transfer increased equity back to REHL.

The purchase price for the shares by RPL is legally required to constitute "fair value", but the means of disputing this may be expensive and are somewhat unclear (NZ arbitration and/or Bermudan Supreme Court). Given the NTA per share of the combined entity must be about $NZ1.70 based on the pro-forma accounts (and the Property Division may well be reported at well below Market Value), this is probably an argument worth having - but not on my account given the small size of my holding.

Besides, no doubt any substantial increase in "fair value" would see RPL using other provisions in law around affordability to avoid buying out holders.

The whole deal appears complex and unfavourable to small shareholders, but I guess that's what most have come to expect from RPL over the years. Perhaps the amalgamation will be voted down - requiring 75% of shareholders approval - but it will still remain unlikely that small shareholders ever receive value for their investment.

  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 1 2008, 04:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well the first two posts on this thread were at a share price of 49cps... and NAP is once again 49cps.

I have, by now, belatedly concluded that NOTHING is worth trading in a bear market. But perhaps more surprising than it should be, is that it has been the "long shot" investments that have often seem to have held up best.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Dec 1 2008, 04:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

For those who like the odd punt on thinly traded stocks, this market minnow is worth keeping on the watchlist. Not irrationally cheap (like so many larger companies), with forward P/E sitting around 8 and yield around 5%. Still, any company with a market cap of $14m which books profits and pays dividends is worth watching.

Bankers have actually extended their available facility by 25% to allow them to make acquisitions. Tourism not exactly a hotbed of activity for now, but is often an early winner when the NZD remains attractively low.

No hurry to buy this one, but one day it might prove interesting.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 29 2008, 06:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Only just noticed that FIN managed to squeeze out a tiny profit for first half and seem not to have suffered too much revenue loss yoy. However, capitalised R&D is ahead of depreciation and amortisation, so perhaps that is all about accounting.

Provisions have increased significantly, perhaps as a result of finance coy failures.

Still reaffirming the view that they will book a small profit this year - though it reads as if the first half may have been more a function of completing RACV (Australia) installation and second half might have to get there by cutting staff and capitalising expenditure i.e. focussing efforts on developing next generation Sovereign software.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 29 2008, 06:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

This is interesting - OncoMethylome Sciences

Don't remember coming across this one before - seem like competition in both colo-rectal and bladder cancer diagnostics, though perhaps running a little behind and not obvious that their technology is advantageous over PEB. Still, interesting that they are also working with Signature and in fact have taken a small equity stake in them. Plus, of course, they have a much larger budget, cash backing and equity value to draw on.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 29 2008, 06:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Half Year report out yesterday.

The good - licencing revenue from Signature Diagnostics, Colo-rectal trial on track for March completion, Bladder cancer trial on track for August Completion. More revenues from Signature then in Mar/April on completion of trial and already in negotiations with "blue chip US company" for licensing of the bladder cancer test post-trial.

The bad - burned through half the cash in six months and won't see new licensing revenue until around April, so is going to be running tight again although directors have previously said they raised enough to get to commercial. 'Twill be a challenge. Then will need a far more significant amount than the $171k revenue of this half to see them through to a post-trial licensing payment from a US blue chip.

Melanoma and Gastric didn't rate a mention - not unusual for PEB to drop mention of things for a while, so I doubt that means anything.

Overall, progress looks steady and a good chance that PEB can start to generate some more serious commercial revenue from April onwards. However, it is still not possible to gauge value - delays are almost compulsory in this field which means more potential dilution and the magnitude of potential revenues is guesswork. Valuation of biotech licensing often appears quite erratic to me!
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 27 2008, 02:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Thanks for the update, PT. I guess those are pretty long time frames that may take weeks rather than days of market optimism to reverse towards anything remotely positive.

From the real economy, I see lending rates falling and the bank is excitedly offering me ridiculous amounts on my credit card. I see finance companies thirst for funds starting to appear satiated. I hear the phonecalls for "quotes on stimulus" are urgently threading their way out into the real world. Given that the thing that seems to separate NZ situation from that of the US is not its absolute level of borrowings so much as the better state of government accounts, available OCR points and bank stability, I'm not sure whether these things signify a recovery or a poisoned chalice. But a hiatus in pessimism must be a minimum?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 27 2008, 02:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

The one sector of the sharemarket I now have my full allocation of is Property Trusts.... APT, PFI, IMP, KIP, NAP with a bit of ASX:CMW and ASX:BJT thrown in for good measure. Oh and I count my few RPL as property too. Share Collector rules apply rolleyes.gif.

The property trusts are a bit of a conundrum - it seems to me their outlook can only be justified by a deflationary outlook, specifically deflation of rent. Sure, capitalisation rates will rise towards more appropriate long-term levels, but should only become an issue for shareholders if it puts companies in breach of their specified debt levels and forces the sale of assets at market lows. The majority of these trusts (BJT excepted!) seem to be operating at levels of debt which would require extreme market conditions for forced sales to occur. Given the yields on property trusts then, the conclusion seems to be that rents will fall and vacancies will increase to the extent that yields are cut heavily. This seems a stark conclusion alongside the inflationary economic stimulus being applied. Additionally, the sharp slow down in property development that has already occurred in recent years should eventually be positive for rental returns.

It seems to me that property trusts are reflecting a far worse view of economic change than share prices in other sectors are implying. But then, it has been suggested that my name should be changed to "Pollyanna"...
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 25 2008, 01:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

NPX now down to $3.82 after forecasting a fairly significant reduction in EBITDA forecast - perhaps as much as 19% below analysts estimates, going off the figure of $130m EBITDA mentioned at the October agm. This sort of dramatic reduction to analysts guidance in the space of 3 weeks is not going to engender much confidence. Neither will the less-than-effusive mention of "remaining in compliance" of banking covenants (although that is probably fair enough since it would be the first question asked in the current environment).

As an aside, it seems crazy to me to discover some of the banking covenants that larger companies have been prepared to agree to in taking on debt for acquisition. Surely execs do a bit of scenario analysis when they take on these things and avoid putting the company at risk in a downturn? One would think so, but in some cases it seems companies have signed up to conditions where one difficult year puts them at the mercy of the sharks on the grounds of some of these ratios - despite being fully solvent and well able to service debt payments.

My forecast NPAT for NPX falls to $43m for current year, putting it on a forward P/E of about 7, but with a negative PEG which would tend to lead me to avoid investing in the current half.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 23 2008, 06:44 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Come back Malmanu, this thread is too quiet!

Did you see this in MAQ newsroom?

10% reduction in power use as number of managed servers grow 30%

I'm not sure if this directly equates to data & hosting revenues, but 30% increase in 6 months seems impressive. Particularly since it looks like this segment has a heavy fixed cost component, so about 35-40% of increase in revenues looks as though it could fall directly to NPBT. That's a substantial amount.

I'm looking forward to the agm presentation on Friday and hoping their guidance gets a little more specific.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 22 2008, 06:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

About 6 weeks since I last checked P/S ratio's - NZX ratios now average 7% below the 1998 low. Would take a 67% rally in stock prices to move us back to the high. Which stocks are at or near their lows for P/S since 1998? Well, it's more a case of picking those that aren't! FBU, FPH, MFT, NZR, PGW, POT, RYM, SAN, STU, TPW.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 21 2008, 03:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

That is a rather complicated announcement out of RPL today - it may take the full documentation before I am completely clear on what they are proposing. At first glance, it appears like amalgamation with REHL followed by separation of the stock into four types (letter stocks?) which trade independently and will pre-sequence the eventual splitting of RPL itself.

Interestingly, the company is offering to purchase shares from holders not wishing to participate in the new scheme at a price of 45.47cps - a substantial premium over the recent price of 21cps. In addition, holders seem to retain a "put" option to sell the shares back to the company on any of the dates 30 Jan 2009, 30 June 2009 or 31 Dec 2009 - it's not clear whether this is at the same price, but, if so, this should put a floor under the price for some time.

Apart from the inconvenience of having possibly small parcels of each type of share, this appears at first glance to be quite positive for despondent shareholders in RPL.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 21 2008, 03:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

According to Yahoo, the lowest point for the NZX50 ever (since inception in 2004) was 2564.73 on May 14, 2004. It had a bright red bullseye painted on it today but we just couldn't quite bust it - 2568.54. Low-busting is almost an adrenalin-racing sport on the indices of late... interspersed by the odd head fake in the opposite direction, such as the one the one currently underway in overseas markets.

Eventually, this sport will get quite tiring. Possibly quite soon - since it is getting harder to find lows to bust... we all know how hard it is to find a long term chart for the NZX.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 21 2008, 02:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Ryman HY result out today (and I haven't commented since before the quite-impressive FY08 result).

Pleasantly surprised to see that they are still able to book a re-valuation gain on units in the current property slowdown. Although there are several key assumptions in determining fair value that could have changed (e.g. Ryman use considerably higher discount rates than Metlifecare for future earnings).

I have adjusted my valuation range to $1.25 - $1.43, so at current price of $1.40, they are now within range.

Still have some concerns as to effect of slowing property market on both LTO pricing and on the ability of elderly to fund retirement village living.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 21 2008, 01:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well, I have to say that I'm impressed. Always knew in theory that markets could do this, but seeing it up close is like the difference between reading about an avalanche and watching one - or perhaps in my case, standing in the path of one...

I think I will now wait until I can invest in stocks at a fully franked yield of 100%...

... no, hang on....

... I'm not sure if that's safe?


Discl: slightly tongue in cheek
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 21 2008, 06:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

And here it is. It looked in line with my own forward estimates, but I've just checked a couple of recent broker reports and perhaps they will be more disappointed.

(Sorry, you need to be signed into "My NZX" to view that link to the financials and they are only available for 3 months. Alternatively, here is the link to the announcement on Stockness, which should stand the test of time)
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 01:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Now $4.35 offered. Finally starting to see real value in MFT again. smile.gif

Won't be immune to an economic slowdown, but at least it is worth putting on the watchlist now.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Half year result out today - on track for $60m NPAT if exchange rate can hang around at 0.55 levels. (Wow, that is a good bit lower than the levels in my last post of August!)

Okay, it's a good result, but I still feel FPH is priced too generously at current levels ($3.08). Sure the growth is great, but they already have a pretty good ROIC - and since they are paying out profit-and-some in dividends then new invested capital to increase returns is all coming from debt for now, so I'm not certain how much more growth they can keep funding from the balance sheet - although debt isn't excessive.

I guess defensive attributes of healthcare makes them seem a safer pick. And in the mid-term the earnings trend is often more relevant to share price than absolute earnings themselves.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 20 2008, 01:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Paper Tiger,

That sounds like a good idea. Is there a public source for the data or do you have to track it yourself?

It seems today's trading is unlikely to improve your figures...

I find it very sad to see the exchanges crashing to new lows - not because of any money I may have lost, but rather because of the seriousness of the real economic impact this implies. Is it really going to be this bad?
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 19 2008, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Oops - only just saw your question...

Well, you know what they say... if you must predict the sharemarket, you should do so frequently. (That way at least you should have a few correct guesses to point to whenever someone doubts your guru-status...)

Too late to predict for today, so I predict that tomorrow the NZX will be green... might as well stick with my bull suit. biggrin.gif
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 18 2008, 04:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I hadn't looked at NTH for some years, but since Dragonz mentioned it, here's a fairly superficial look...

...I think NTH have done very well (given the circumstances) in extracting value for shareholders over recent years and paying it out to existing shareholders. However, I can't see much of an investment case for holding. At the recent AGM, directors basically admitted that they can't really generate an economic return on their holding in the port and surrounding land. They clearly would like to extract more value from the capital tied up there. However, it appears that their major shareholder - the local council - takes a dim view of selling local strategic assets and cannot be convinced.

Given the market cap of around $124m is not substantially below the $150m the Board suggest the company is worth on liquidation, it is difficult to see what could push the share price upwards. Does not seem like enough in it (particularly during an economic slowdown) to be holding on to NTH in the hope of liquidation. Neither does there seem much point in holding for the predicted revenue of $3m per annum they expect to receive from port dividends and property leases.

The share is illiquid and seems to have range traded since at least 2000 - although the dividends would have provided okay yield. While the directors seem like deserving chaps, the shares don't appear to hold much attraction at these levels ($2.85).

  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 18 2008, 12:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

On the positive side - at least I didn't promise to print out my words and eat them on webcam if I was wrong....
Stuff Blogger Eats Media Lunch
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 18 2008, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Down today Dragonz. The treatment usually merited by predictions! biggrin.gif

Oh well, gets a bit boring if we don't make the odd call along the way!


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 17 2008, 07:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Haha, thanks dragonz. Teach me to assume that no one is reading! laugh.gif

Deposit interest rates now falling fast as the govt guarantee rolls out - starting to run out of options for maturing fixed interest at suitable yields. TEL and aussie banks and Property Trusts all looking comparatively good, even at reduced divs. Goldman Sachs says the NZ recession will be deep:
NZX - NZ Recession Expected to Deepen

Apart from suggesting OCR being slashed again and down to 3.5% by mid-09 (what will that do to my income portfolio!), they also note that the forex and interest rate moves have not been priced into NZ...
QUOTE
"The rates and New Zealand dollar themes are not yet fully priced in markets and are a source of opportunity in our view. "On the NZD, we expect a medium term trend of depreciation punctuated by risk appetite related volatility." On NZ equities, Goldman Sach's strategist recommended tilting portfolios to benefit from exchange rate and interest rate exposure.

This was best achieved through external exposures, especially companies with secular growth, and selective cyclical exposures.

Funding ideas include defensives and weak balance sheet stocks.


I can think of a few stocks they could be referring to here.

Apart from all that, my amateur eye just thinks that support held nicely at around my old 2730 mark the last couple of days and that chart just has that "a rally here would look about right" look to it.

Is it a permanent bottom? Hard to say - but the yield aspect should hold for a while - at least long enough to establish if the recession will be deep enough to erode dividends substantially further.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 17 2008, 01:12 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Can't do any harm putting my balls on the line - since I don't have any...

... so I'm going to do an incredibly dumb thing and make a prediction...

... this is the last day to buy the NZX at the bottom cool.gif
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 15 2008, 06:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Not surprisingly, RNS have announced that the slowdown is hitting them hard. Haven't had a close look, but suspect the forecast means they make minimal or no profit in second half. Hard to see any bright spots on the horizon for RNS at the moment.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 15 2008, 06:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hey, looks like I was beaten to recalling that point by elzephyrus over on HC last night. That was a genuine "snap" thought... not intentionally poaching someone elses comment! ph34r.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 15 2008, 06:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I'm not holding IMD, but still watching and am amazed at how low it has fallen.

Remembered one thing last night - the lower it goes, the more money they have to fork out for final payment on Flex-it on 1 May 2009. From original announcement in April 2007:

QUOTE
Additional consideration of A$10 million will be paid on the second anniversary of the settlement date either by;

• if the Imdex share price is A$2 or greater per share, the issue of 5 million fully paid ordinary shares in Imdex; or

• if the Imdex share price is less than A$2 per share, by the issue of 5 million fully paid ordinary shares in Imdex at the then trading price plus an amount of cash required to bring the market value of shares issued and cash paid at that time to A$10 million.


So about $8m to find based on current. Not a fatal blow by any means, but just something to bear in mind.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 14 2008, 07:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Having now found a couple more analysts reports and pored over their figures, I can only assume that they are basing their figures on all but $20 of the $70m in cost savings from the relocation being passed onto the consumer. And then near on $10m of them going in additional interest expense, with the remaining $10m being subject to tax...

I fail to believe that FPA went through this entire global manufacturing strategy, just to give most of the gains away (and for no greater market share if they do...). But, as should be obvious, I've been wrong before!
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 14 2008, 07:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well that last post was bad advice - should have stuck with my previous one!

Now dipping below $2 after they admitted at the AGM that earnings were down slightly in the first 4 months and things will get worse in the second half. Rationalisation amongst the small NZ retail sales operations probably won't be helping them either, with purchasers banding together to throw their weight around.


  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 14 2008, 07:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Is that you steadily bidding up the price with small buys, Plastic?

Well, at least it's good to see a bit of activity in PEB. Results on second validation of melanoma predictor must be due - was expected completion in October as at Annual Report. Oh and half year report due end of this month. So maybe a bit of newsflow will garner more interest. Then it's back to waiting for the bladder cancer test result in first half of 2009.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 14 2008, 07:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Call me Pollyanna, but I thought that the FPA half yearly contained a lot of positive. Okay, it was hidden behind a $7.3m loss - but that was at the better end of the $7-$10m loss forecast at the August AGM. The dividend was cut from 9cps to 5cps - so that wasn't great news either. But then given the treatment meted out to high debt companies of late, I'm sure most shareholders will be happier with that than with the alternative.

But looking forward - this has to be the low for reported profit for FPA. And we are entering the stage where historical margins will be restored rather than eroded, as exchange rates, interest rates, competitors pricing and materials costs all move in their favour and the financing arm should receive some investor stability from the govt guarantee. Furthermore, the relocation project is now expected to yield more in savings than initially projected - something like $70m per annum rather than the originally mentioned $50m if I read aright. Operating cashflow looks to be being tightly controlled - although the debt covenants may have something to do with this.

On radio, Bongard mentioned that material cost contracts start to rollover from December this year.

All up, with normalised NPAT for the half year of $22.3m annualised as a worst case scenario, then at $1.41, FPA is on a (fully diluted) P/E of 8.9. While revenues are likely to remain under pressure, a 10% fall in appliance revenue would be recovered by a just a 0.5% increase in margins. Just 4 years ago, the appliances business was able to operate with margins of 9.6% (EBIT/sales), c.f. the current 5.3%.

So assuming that going forward, the NPAT can be maintained by margin gains offsetting revenue falls and adding the annual relocation cost savings of $70m (say $50m after tax), the base case earnings assumption for the 09/10 financial year would seem to be at least $95m NPAT. Mind you, the only analysts report I've got to hand forecasts about $58m - a result which would have to assume further margin pressure, despite forex, interest rates and material costs.

At $95m NPAT as per my calcs, the P/E is 4.2. I also think the potential upside from these figures could be larger rather than smaller. FPA has been battered by offshore competitors for years - now the game is turning in their favour. Or at least the playing field is going to be a little more level - and as a result, I'd expect to gradually see FPA getting a more appropriate return on capital and improved margins.

The current pricing for FPA suggests the market thinks they may have bitten off more than they can chew in terms of debt requirements during the current economic conditions. However, while debt (more required to fund relocations of DCS, and Cleveland) is not forecast to peak until second quarter of calendar 09, the improvement in earnings from offshore relocations should keep them free of any convenant issues.

In January 2006, I made a small purchase, looking for a 3 yr investment timeframe and a return of 25% pa. FPA ran fairly quickly after that and within 6 months I gained over half the profit I expected to make in 3 years and suspected it was time to sell. However, I wanted to complete my experiment, so I kept some. I now calculate that to make my original target, FPA would need to trade at $6.24 in Jan 2009!!! Hmmm, I think I can now concede on that one. Yet I still remain convinced there's a $6 stock in there - just maybe a little longer....... laugh.gif

  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 13 2008, 07:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Nice positive announcement from MAQ today, so the sellers turned out in droves at the sight of the odd buy order. Guess they have to wait a while these days for the opportunity to get out at all...

MAQ announced $9-$10m EBITDA forecast for first half 09 and said they would report a profit. Based on figures at FY08 (which won't necessarily be the case!) could give first half NPAT of $1.4m (tax-normal).

It's not the kind of market to get wildly excited in, so I probably should avoid projections like most sensible company CEO's are doing. But in normal times, I'd then extrapolate the growth trend and calculate $2.8m NPAT in second half, giving a $4.2m profit for the year.

Meanwhile, based on similar investment flows, I'd estimate potentially going to be another $5m-$10m cash in the coffers by year end.

In a good year, I'd be thinking that at last sale of 70.5cps, the cash in bank could be twice current market cap by year end and the forward P/E could be 3.5.

Only it's not a normal year and these comments are probably way too bullish!
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 12 2008, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Another piece in the puzzle from e-health insider....

QUOTE
There are early indications that iSoft is seeking to sell the less complex Lorenzo Studio platform into the NHS market, possibly in direct competition to its main customer CSC. The test ground is likely to be the so-called iSoft seven trusts in London and in areas of southern England such as Kent and Medway.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 12 2008, 01:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I have to admit that most of the "lego block" structure and "service oriented architecture" bit is easy to picture but a little meaningless in terms of significance for me!

Yesterday, the Tony Collins Blog quoted a Guardian column (requires registration to read directly) which suggested that the NHS project could be under serious threat.

QUOTE
The word on the health street is that, whatever they cautiously say for public consumption, ministers and senior officials are seriously worried about their ambitious NHS Connecting for Health IT plans.......

Outside Westminster a well informed source tells me he hears it's 'in real trouble' - not just in the South either - not least because the technology has moved on.

That translates as meaning that software to allow previously incompatible systems to talk to each other now exists to render the centralised CfH vision unnecessary. But, as so often in such chats, my source adds 'I don't understand the technology.' Few do.


However, in the context of IBA, it is difficult to decide whether in fact that last statement could in fact be referring to the same thing that Gary Cohen referred to, including in both yesterdays launch and in the Open Briefing today:
QUOTE
There’s a growing need for systems to integrate and enable connectivity across the  different care settings but with most records saved in silos that don’t share a common system, replacement and starting again is very costly and involves the loss of intellectual property (IP) built up over many years.

Because LORENZO is a service oriented solution, it’s designed to allow users to retain their existing investments and their existing IP.  LORENZO incorporates clinical knowledge in thousands of modules which means it’s highly configurable and highly adaptable to many different types of clinical services.  The modules can also be installed progressively.  This means that LORENZO will be very affordable to implement and use and will at the same time give clinicians the tools to deliver safer and higher quality care.


So how to read that? iSoft could see NPfIT chopped? I guess there are other providers of SOA healthcare applications out there, but I have no idea whether they could do what the NHS would need or whether LORENZO could still be in demand if the model changed?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 6 2008, 01:20 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

"The Board and John" seems a telling phrase... is this a surprising indication of a degree of dissatisfaction from the Board?
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 6 2008, 01:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I just read through the agm presentation and it is pretty much what I've come to expect from IBA - ambitious but with a sense that they will continue to achieve their goals.

If they can get to their indicated $1000m revenue by 2012, I estimate that even stuck on a P/E of 10 and excluding divs, long-term investors would still make 20% pa on a purchase at 67cps. With divs and a P/E re-rate, the numbers get a bit better... wink.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Nov 6 2008, 04:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Some interesting articles out there this morning:

Morecambe Bay Pilots NPfIT Lorenzo Version 1

Sounds positive - it's all still happening, despite the scorn that has been heaped on NPfIT by media and medical professionals alike. Let's hope Lorenzo can achieve the impossible and solidify the NPfIT dream!

Also:

IT Braces for Crunch

Which notes IBA's likely defensive position relative to the rest of the IT sector.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 31 2008, 12:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Another acquisition for Cavotec - Meyerinck. Sounds like a good fit with existing business and adds around 5% to sales. No indication on purchase price, but would seem a good time to be making suitable acquisitions and unlikely to stretch the balance sheet.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 30 2008, 01:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well from comments at the agm, they don't look to be sustaining second half after all... reported most of their trading businesses to be suffering from toughest conditions in 10-20 years. First quarter behind that of last year (excluding or including the impact of BBQ factory last year?).

Not encouraging with HBY debt levels, despite recent achievements... too high risk for my taste.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 30 2008, 01:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Tidy half year result from Methven given market conditions. However, at $1.40, they are not as cheap as many other shares - my valuation $1.56. Since they also have a reasonable amount of debt and are affected by construction, it would not be a natural choice of company in current market. However, they seem to remain positive on outlook - though growth in first half was partly due to $600k tax gain and last years acquisition of Deva in second half.

On a rolling HY basis, this half appears lower than 2H08.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 29 2008, 02:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well, since my last post, I am very happy to say the NZX have now turned over a new leaf and can download the presentations and reports from their site as they come in...

Today was SKL agm and they reconfirmed guidance for $13.4m NPAT. This is better growth than it appears, since divestment of profitable businesses was made close to year end in prior year. At 80cps, it is also on a P/E of 8.5 (historical) with growth outlook (unusual for now!) and gross yield of 10.7%... it's going to take a serious downturn to wipe the value here.

Despite caution around the global outlook, there were some strong positives in the presentation - personal favourite was this one:
QUOTE
We have a number of products that are quickly gaining market shares off relatively low bases


Also noted some reduction in raw material prices and the point about exchange rates being fairly neutral for them - despite the recent rapid changes.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 29 2008, 02:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Rally on the Dow last night has to be a picture for the old scrapbook...

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 29 2008, 01:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Good quarterly report from CCC out this morning. Order book at record levels (up 24% on same period last year and that's in Euro's, not declining NZD's). Rolling 12 months order intake is up 9.7% on a year ago - despite sale of Gantrex in Oc
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 28 2008, 07:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Plastic, No more levels!

Well the NZ market hasn't fallen as far as it did in 1987... but then we never had that kind of stockmarket bubble beforehand (resource stocks were perhaps looking like a bubble, though it was hard to foresee that bubble popping quite as resoundingly as it has!).

What makes this worse than 1987 is that so few asset classes are unaffected in some way. I run a "balanced portfolio" which would usually have seen one asset class perform better, but virtually every tradeable asset class has suffered except cash. At least in 1987, after the initial crash, overseas markets provided opportunities for big gains.

NZ started off in worse shape and with fewer options in 1987. Private debt levels are the scariest part right now, but I have the impression most people can hold in there provided we don't see significant redundancies. The scarey part of 1987 was the way in which the economy spiralled into collapse, with earnings, jobs and asset values all sucked into the vortex. But the focus on tight monetary conditions and controlling inflation may have been overly detrimental. Central banks and governments walk a tightrope in this regard - if they can maintain their balance, we will all be wondering in 12 months time what we were so worried about... probably need a degree in Chaos Theory to be able to gauge the likelihood we fall off the rope!

One thing of interest I read today was this Forbes article on the NZ bond market (skip intro). The bond markets are often more intelligent than equity markets. I'm seeing the first signs of firming amongst bonds, notes and prefs I hold. If rates on bonds fall another 2% or so, I'd expect the listed property sector to start looking more appealing. Then the flow on to other high yield shares. This is usually a months-years process, but all cycles are getting a bit compressed at present.

In the meantime - markets look well overdue for a serious attempt at a rally. Maybe we need to make it through the end of month redemptions, or maybe the last of them are nearly cleared out.


  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 25 2008, 11:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Another order for Cavotec: Marketwatch

You can check here if you're wondering what a panzerbelt is! (Looks like the cost would be measured in $k's rather than $m's, though the project total is probably still significant)

Should be a quarterly sales report from them in the coming week. Will be interesting to see how they are holding up - no doubt feeling the global pinch a little, but would think USD:Euro exchange rate would be helpful for now as I would assume some orders are made in USD. Also, Moormaster deliveries were underway during the quarter I think.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 23 2008, 12:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Rather unconvincing AGM speech about their ability to survive until the next upturn in property markets... yawn...
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 23 2008, 12:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

AGM speech mentions that first quarter revenue was $17.1m (up 73% - but at least partially due to intervening acquisition) and NPAT was over $2m, with FY revenue forecast to be at least $50m (against $39m for FY08 and $2.2m profit). Profit margins have improved due to changes in exchange rates and a decrease in raw material costs. This looks like an excellent year for NEW, though they may not be a full 30% tax payer yet?

Market cap $39m and about $1m of net debt.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 21 2008, 02:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

The September RBNZ Bulletin made mention of the amount of hot money flowing into Chinese banks in anticipation of a revaluation of the Renimbi. Ultimately, this adjustment has to happen. Maybe not great for the tanning business, but should boost the value of Chinese property and rentals relative to the NZ dollar.

I don't trust RPL management particularly, but I still hold a few RPL on the basis that it is the easiest exposure to the China on the NZX - my only other exposure is via "Henderson TR Pacific Investment Fund" (HRP) and I've never been a big fan of funds either.

RPL's NTA per share has grown while its share price has shrunk. It wouldn't pay to count on a re-rate, but if it ever gains a whiff of investor confidence, the share price could have a long way to run up. A gamble but probably with better odds than a Macau casino at current levels of 24/25cps?
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 16 2008, 12:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Watching the levels with interest - given we went back and touched the 2950 in the bounce, I would normally expect to see 2730ish as the next stop. It wasn't a perfect level though, so I should probably re-check based on latest moves.

Levels make interesting guidance - they sometimes help me to delay a buy or sell decision until a better moment, but I don't use them too religiously - partly because keeping them up to date across indices and stocks is not always the best use of time.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 16 2008, 04:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

With a BBB- rating already for Marac, PGC now looks in a strong position to obtain a government guarantee. PGW (in which PGC has a substantial holding) also has a finance arm to their business though and I don't think this is rated.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 16 2008, 04:30 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

A credit rating of at least BB is now required to participate in the government guarantee or pay a fee to the government of 3%. Makes good sense, but I don't think FPA have actually bothered to get rated in the past? Will want to move quickly, as otherwise might see a drop off in renewals with any delay.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 15 2008, 07:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Having received a 13cps dividend, my investment in PGC would be one of the few sitting in the black right now, with the s.p. at $3.40.

While the market for PGC was spooked by the problems facing PGW and analysts fail to believe they can match last years profit (against company guidance for a small increase), the "government guarantee" affecting the Marac business may have ensured PGC has halted it's decline.

As ever, it's a mixed case for PGC, with farming once again feeling the pinch of over-investment and high agri-credit, while Perpetual may face some claims against trustees relating to their role in finance company supervision. For now, it's a range trade with support at $3.05 and resistance at $3.78 closing price until direction is established. But fundamentally, I'd still hope to see a break to the upside.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 15 2008, 07:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

All the way back down to $1.30 in the recent slide and now at around $1.50 on the bounce. Apart from being very cheap on most metrics, FPA may also be a beneficiary of the recent "government guarantee" in strengthening the finance arm. This should enable them to keep borrowing money at low cost while having the edge on consumer lending which might be expected to stay more selective and highly priced. While people may temporarily make greater effort to repair broken appliances, I would still expect most to borrow to replace a broken-down fridge or washing machine rather than attempt to live without. Potentially good for both arms of FPA business.

Falling commodities will eventually impact on raw material costs for the appliance side - although this is going to be a common factor. While appliance sales will be tougher in US/Eur/NZ/Aust, there may perhaps be more opportunity in Asia as the market for appliances grows there. FPA still have a wide range of brands and models to call upon to target various markets and sectors.

While precise timing for a recovery is still not clear, I think FPA is well under-priced at current levels. And, judging by interest in PGC (and to a lesser extent FPA which is also being influenced more by offshore selling of NZ inc), I would say the potential for gains from the government guarantee have not been overlooked by analysts now they have finally recovered from their stunned disbelief.

(I left a bid in when I went away at where I thought "bottom" would be and got given at $1.56... so I'm still underwater this trade, but still believe it stands a good chance of a profitable exit! Watching for around $1.78-$1.82 this move.)
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 12 2008, 07:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
So is this it?


I think it may be... for the markets. Massive globally coordinated moves over the next 24 hours to restore confidence and interbank lending. Starting with the guarantee of NZ & Australian bank deposits. For the real economy, the recovery will take a bit longer.

Still not sure how much money is sitting on the sidelines to propel a V-bounce. But eventually liquidity measures will work and the money will return.

There will still be some flow on to the real economy and there is often a second wave down in 12 - 18 months when that arrives. But whether it is weaker or stronger than the recent sell-off is not possible to gauge. One aspect closely tied in with this is what resources do from here - the world needs at least a middling-sized slow down to digest the changes in demand. Could be a see-saw till we find a new equilibrium.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 12 2008, 01:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well just ran that check and yes, the average P/S ratio on NZX50 stocks which have remained listed since 1998 fell to 1.77 - 1.7% below the figure at the 1998 low when the market had corrected by around 30% due to the Asian crisis and NZ drought.

We are now about 18% below the P/S ratio where the bull market started in 2003 and 34% below the 2007 peak.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 11 2008, 03:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

In reply to: rene in geneva on Saturday 11/10/08 05:07pm

Don't lose sight of the fact that behind the economy are real productive assets, real land, real people with real labour. All the legislation, pieces of paper and electronic numbers are a means to an end - and alterable with sufficient will and lateral thinking.

Provided we don't abandon the real economy, the pieces of paper will eventually be sorted out - no doubt unfairly to some - but it is not at all a hopeless situation.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 11 2008, 01:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

In reply to: flower on Saturday 11/10/08 03:09pm

So do we take it that the G20 meeting is an admission that the, mainly debtor, G7 nations can't do this without negotiating "re-financing" with the creditor nations?

It has occurred to me that what is needed to really end this panic phase is a strong statement of leadership from a major creditor nation, showing a willingness to work in tandem with debtors rather than attempt to fruitlessly hang them out to dry.

As Paulson says, "Never have all of us been so dependent on the other and so interdependent. We need to work together."
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 10 2008, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

The good news is that it appears the Financial Controllers partner has acquired more shares...

... the bad news is that it appears the Financial Controller may not be good at maths...

(217,560 shares plus 100,000 shares would not normally make 417,560 shares)
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 10 2008, 08:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
... we are still 9% above the low of 1998. A fall of this proportion would take the NZX to around 2890.


Well that didn't take long! Through to about 2868 this morning. Not sure if that actually hit the P/S level - I might check on the weekend.

Meanwhile, levels are being broken with regularity. We're heading towards the final one I've set (or have any plans to set) of 2730. I'm still hoping we might bounce once again today to finish close to the 2950 level as we did yesterday - a much "stronger" level for me and one I'd like to see hold for now. Though the move on the Dow last night doesn't suggest the odds are high.

My target for the Dow has been around 8500 - and unbelievably, it nearly got there last night. The Dow and FTSE have really made a massive effort to catch up with the falls on other markets this week!

I am really tempted to say "this is it!", but there is also a real chance that it is NOT it and we all have to face the nightmare scenario. So risk-taking may be rewarded, but keep it at manageable levels!
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 10 2008, 05:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Didn't get the 20% gain on RBD that my last post predicted - the most that ended up being available was a quick 10.8% from 82cps to 92cps before the plummet continued and now only 63cps.

Not a great half year in some respects, but the accounts are still solid with cash flow remaining steady. Dividend retained giving a total dividend of 6.5cps, franked to 30%. At 63cps, gross yield is therefore 14.7%.

At this point, the company looks to be in a sustainable position. Short term, they have the ability to slow capex to maintain cashflow, but I would be wary if investment was reduced below depreciation for more than 12-18 months.

Worth keeping on the watchlist for a possible TA entry.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 9 2008, 01:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Wow, just been away for a few days and missed all the fun! Though it doesn't quite seem to be over yet...

Well, so far today, it is looking like we might close below the 2950 level which is somewhat worrying... there are some very long term levels that I've had in mind hovering into view and yet at this point, if we don't turn shortly, the flow on to the real economy is quite worrying. This is particularly true given that this is a real global meltdown.

This is a time to watch closely but keep enough powder dry until the ultimate shake-out is over. And be aware that after an initial bounce, the market will then need to assess the real prospects for companies.

One thing that may provide direction from here is the upcoming round of AGM speeches - depending on what sort of guidance is given and the level of confidence that can be engendered.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 6 2008, 07:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

And the RPL share price continues to slide...

Less of a risk that this company will completely self-destruct - simply more likely that it will slide cheaply into the waiting hands of REHL who can then attempt to vigorously extract the underlying asset value from it.
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 6 2008, 07:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Caution! The break down in TEN's share price today could only be viewed as disturbing. When a share this cheap starts getting suddenly cheaper, it generally only means one thing - and it is quite imaginable that the pressure on TEN is about to c
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 6 2008, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

In reply to: kiril on Monday 06/10/08 09:44am

I think that they will want to direct funds towards paying down debt and maximising the roll-out speed of Lorenzo, so I am guessing they actually mean we'll see a dividend (2cps?) declared in the August FY report and paid in about 12 months time.

However, they may well use the HY to announce the amount they are intending to pay at FY. I wouldn't expect divs to be more than about 30% of eps in the current year, but probably ramp up fairly steadily after that.

Just my feeling.


  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 6 2008, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Hi Dragonz and welcome!

GEN is pretty speculative, but I guess you know that. Biotech research is a very slow and capital intensive process which NZ has trouble supporting. GEN's main function often seems to be to sell off good-great
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 6 2008, 04:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Well interestingly, we've twice attempted the 3000 level on extreme days and buyers have stepped in. The first occasion turned out to be a good time to buy. The second time is still playing out - and it looks like we may well penetrate that 3000 level shortly.

Meanwhile, have just analysed the P/S ratio's again, since denominators have changed once again following the most recent results season. The average, as measured previously, is now nearly 10% below the levels at the start of the last bull market (now 2.06). However, the smaller pool of shares compared against 1998 have not fallen as much, hence we are still 9% above the low of 1998. A fall of this proportion would take the NZX to around 2890.

Particularly cheap relative to historical data at this time are TEL, HBY, GPG, EBO, NPX, FPA, AIR, KIP, WHS.

Meanwhile, SAN has recovered from its extreme lows to be back near historical highs.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Oct 3 2008, 12:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Confirmation given at the annual meeting of 6cps dividend yield per quarter for the next two years. By my calcs, at current prices around $2.86, that's a near on 12% yield. Given the differential pricing between fixed and indexed bonds at prese
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 30 2008, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

I bought PGC at $3.35 recently on the basis of emerging uptrend, low forward P/E, strong yield, growth forecast and key position in the decimated finance sector. So far, that position hasn't been in the money and the bid was looking sadly thin u
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 29 2008, 09:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

And takeover offer at $4.00 cash from OneSteel. I'd hate to see this one go through and another mid-tier disappear from the NZX and not a great price in my books - I'd normally hope for a 20% premium to valuation, or around $5.40. But
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 26 2008, 02:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

You must have awakened the bidders there plastic - back at 8cps.

Not too worried - there won't be much to t
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 26 2008, 02:09 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

In reply to: blueice on Friday 26/09/08 11:20am

More complex shorting and investment activities between Merrills various hands. Earlier in the year, they seemed to be shorting IBA to the disadvantage of their own Blackrock Discretionary funds management. This time it looks more as though the shorting was used to bring the price back to where Blackrock wanted in at 58cps.

I know the arguments about shorting not being used for manipulation and perhaps there are reasonable explanations for the various activities, but it does look a little odd.
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 25 2008, 12:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE (kahuna1 @ Thursday 25/09/08 01:28pm)

Thanks Kahuna.

Not sure if you caught the transcript of the Buffett interview on CNBC:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26867866

Much as I prefer not to join the hoardes of Buffettophiles, invoking him as the expert on all things financial, it's still interesting to hear his positive (in a "better than the alternative" sense) opinion on the bail-out and on Paulson. However, more relevant to what you were saying is his comments regarding what price should be paid for distressed assets.


QUOTE
Like I said, it wouldn't be a bad idea, if you're buying ten billion of a security and you're the Treasury,  to have them sell five-hundred million, or something like that into the market, so you find out what the real market price is and then buy the other 9-1/2 billion at that price.  I really think, I really think the Treasury will make -- I think they'll pay back the 700 billion and make a considerable amount of money, if they approach it in that manner.   But I don't believe in trying to write that into some legislation.  I think it gets so unworkable.  I think you have a smart person in charge, and have them treat it like it's their own money,  and the taxpayers' money, in terms of behavior, and I think it will work out very well.  I think it's not comparable to the RTC.....


........I don't think that Uncle Sam should be in the business of paying somebody a whole lot more than it's worth in the market today.  And if the guy that bought it doesn't like it, he doesn't have to sell it, and it was his problem, he bought it in the first place.  I think a market price will enable people to be leveraged.  The problem they have now is that some of the institutions, they're loaded with this stuff, they're having trouble funding, and they're worried about being able to sell a ton of it.  But take the Merrill Lynch deal.  Merrill Lynch had to take back 75 percent of the sales price.  Well, they didn't want to take back that 75 percent.  I would let 'em sell it for the same price, but I'd pay them the whole thing in cash.   So they'd be a lot better off if they could have sold the whole thing at that same price but gotten paid a hundred percent in cash instead of having to take back 75 percent.  And I see the government fulfilling that kind of a function.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 25 2008, 12:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

In reply to: davidbee on Thursday 25/09/08 12:21pm

I'm still a bit stuck on how M0 is created.

That aside, do we get too hung up on how money enters the system? In the end, all we want is a trusted means of exchange for labour. And, we want the amount x velocity to stay proportional to national productivity so that there is generally stable pricing which doesn't lead to a preference for either saving or spending.



  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 21 2008, 05:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

In reply to: hungry on Sunday 21/09/08 06:52pm

Hi Hungry,

On 17 September, the SEC issued an Emergency Order to prevent "abusive short selling" specifying penalties for "fail to delivers". I think Emergency Orders are limited to 30 days, but not sure about that?

On 18 September, the SEC moved to no short selling at all on 799 financial stocks until 2 October.

SEC Emergency Orders

This does not seem to prevent holding existing positions, but just opening new ones. In addition, the "sweeping investigation of market manipulation" is to be expanded.

The FSA in the UK orders also appear to be against opening new short positions in financial stocks, applying till 16 January but reviewable after 30 days.

FSA Statement on Short Positions in Financial Stocks

During the period until 16 January, the FSA intends to review short-selling regulation and practice.

Hope this helps.
  Forum: Macro Factors

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 19 2008, 06:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Here's another nice easy-reading one:


Australian Health Information Technology

I'm about as far as it gets from being an I.T. specialist, so I find it really helpful to keep reading the tone of reviews from those with more knowledge in regard to IBA progress with Lorenzo. Of late, the tone seems to be steadily improving. smile.gif
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 18 2008, 05:50 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

QUOTE
Gold index looks a bit oversold, with accelerating downtrend and would have been my pick for counter-trend rally "trade of the week", but am a bit too busy elsewhere to have attempted it.


XGD index bounced near on 13% since I wrote that two and a half days ago. So pity I didn't find the time to run a trade in gold shares!

Would expect it needs to consolidate or fall back here - but who knows in this crazy market where the only thing that can be counted on is short term extremes.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 17 2008, 05:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

More good stuff...


iSoft wins award for Laboratory Information Systems

Includes more interesting comments on iSoft/IBA strategies.

Also e-health insider reports CSC as saying Lorenzo will go live at Morecambe Bay by end of September - it's first acute trust.

It's also worth taking a look at the healthcare sector index - now that commodities and oil are fading, it is perhaps the best performing sector index of late. (Excuse poor quality chart).
Attached image(s)
Attached Image

 
  Forum: By Share Code

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 16 2008, 08:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Plastic, given the recent out-performance of the asx:xhj (healthcare index), you may perhaps turn out to be on the right track with biotechs (which are included - though the constituents are only drawn from the ASX200, so that would be a fairly limited contribution from biotechs I suspect).

The only other indices which look even vaguely uptrending here are the consumer staples, information tech and (perhaps surprisingly) consumer discretionary - maybe property trying to sneak in. Healthcare the definite winner for now.

Gold index looks a bit oversold, with accelerating downtrend and would have been my pick for counter-trend rally "trade of the week", but am a bit too busy elsewhere to have attempted it.
  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 16 2008, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

We are in the zone for that first target and I don't think it's likely to hold - a big move generally needs at least 4 or 5 days to play out. So I've re-checked my levels and have the following approximate points in mind to look for a buying opportunity - 3055, 2950 and 2730.

  Forum: Investment Discussion

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 12 2008, 07:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

Comparing my notes on NZF listing versus DFH listing (both listed in 2004), I seem to have clearly preferred NZF:
QUOTE
New Zealand Finance Holdings is planning to list on t
  Forum: NZX

Lizard
Posted on: Sep 12 2008, 07:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 911

With the recent announcement of receivership and today's announcement of regulatory enquiries, I went back to find my notes I'd kept from the DFH IPO in 2004. I noted at the time that the prospectus seemed deliberately confusing and vague in plac
  Forum: NZX

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