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mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2021, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Over the last few days, I have had numerous Ip database errors on Sharescene.
The latest just now after I spent about 15 minutes writing a longish post with a few quotes , gone into the ether when I posted and got the error.
Think its time to retire and move on.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 18 2021, 09:38 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Surely the Kiwis should start favourites.
In their last meeting in 2019, New Zealand beat India 2-0 at home in New Zealand.
Kiwis have just beaten the Poms 1-0 in a series in England.
It was only rain that prevented the scoreline being 2-0.
They have assimilated well.
Due to covid, rescheduling, IPL etc, India have not played any red ball cricket since beating England 2-0 in UAE early in March.
The Indians will be coming off a disjointed IPL T20 series in India, not ideal preparation.
A champion team versus a team of champions will triumph every time.
And we must not forget that the English women's team is making life difficult for the Indian Women's team in a 4 day test match.
Pity it won't get the coverage of the mens test.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 17 2021, 11:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Aahh, DeFi, another new buzzword.

It seems that DeFi may have just had its first "bank Run".
From Zero Hedge

QUOTE
Less than a week ago, billionaire investor Mark Cuban proclaimed:

"Crypto Businesses make more sense than you think and valuing tokens is easier and makes more sense than you think."

He may well be correct, but just a few days later, his investment in TITAN - part of a "multi-chain partial-collateralized algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem" from IRON Finance - has hit an iceberg and sunk like the Titanic.While this collapse is getting a lot of attention due to Mark Cuban's involvement, it is not the first of this breed of so-called algorithmic stablecoins to hit the wall.Rekt.com reports that the incident started when TITAN became overpriced, perhaps due to users purchasing the token in order to farm TITAN pairs at ~50,000% APY. Some large TITAN sales were made and the price became volatile, making investors nervous, and leading them to also sell their tokens.

The IRON stablecoin then lost it's peg due to TITAN dropping so rapidly.This created a situation in which users could now redeem a token worth 90 cents, for 75 cents of stablecoin and 25 cents of TITAN. An incredible arbitrage opportunity which required minting new TITAN tokens each time.

The market was flooded with freshly minted TITAN, and a panic sale began, pushing down the TITAN price and therefore making the IRON stablecoin lose its peg even further.

This vicious cycle could not be stopped until the $1 peg was regained.

Despite briefly regaining the peg, the huge amounts of freshly minted TITAN flooding onto the market caused the price of TITAN to drop again, the peg to be lost, and the arbitrage opportunity to open back up.

As long as IRON is not at peg, TITAN will continue to drop, and as long as TITAN continues to drop, IRON will not be at peg... and everyone ran for the door.

So, did you get all that? Read it five times and still not sure I got it right.
So many ways for shysters to make a buck by scamming the unwary.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 17 2021, 10:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Especially if he keeps making these bloopers.
The latest was when he called Putin "president Trump", but he did quickly correct himself.
(see UK Express )
A Fruedian slip perhaps?
I men the Dems have said all along that Trump was in cahoots with Russia, so I guess we can forgive him that one.
Was interesting to see which news services highlighted the slip up and which did not.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 17 2021, 03:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Nah, Orange man is gone, never to be returned.
He appears to have a heap of supporters, but they are the wrong kind.
He needs supporters who call the shots in the GOP, the grass roots folks, a bit like here in OZ, don't feature in the power games.
I can't imagine that the delegates will select him again.
The best he can hope for is to be a kingmaker, giving someone else the imprimatur.
He could run as an independent, but that would just be as a spoiler role for whoever got the GOP nomination.
Hopefully his wife and kids can convince him not to run and just keep playing the martyr.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 17 2021, 11:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Given we gave Trump a good working over, perhaps it is time we looked at Biden.
I don't know if anyone else bothers to watch some of his Press conferences, but I find I am squirming with embarrassment sometimes.
The poor bastard just loses the thread too frequently for my liking.
Sometimes rambling, sometimes just plain incoherent.
Confusing Libya and Syria is his most recent gaff.
One of a long line of many.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 17 2021, 10:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

RMS started mining at Tampia gold mine.
After the investment in the mining, now is the time to get the returns.
Processing won't be recognised until next Fin year, so won't have any(much?) impact on the this Fin year.
With the overnight crunch in gold, expect the Sp to fall,.
Hope that one of the low ball bids I have had in for a while gets taken out.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 15 2021, 09:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Perhaps Ms Warren (and a few others) needs to read A comparison of proof of work versus proof of stake
However, the one stumbling block in both systems, is the problems with scalability.
So many great ideas t hat work really well in proof of concept mode, fail when it comes time to scale them up to manage massive workloads.
Whether it be proof of work or proof of stake,l that hurdle still exists.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 12 2021, 10:28 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Us senator Elizabeth Warren, failed Presidential candidate, is one of those infuriating politicians for whom about 50% of her utterings, you shakes your head in wonder about the stupidity of the thing.
But for the other 50%, you say in varying degrees, I can't argue with that.
Her most recent railings against Bitcoin is a case of the latter.
From Wall Street on Parade
QUOTE
Cryptocurrencies have turned out to be a fourth-rate alternative to real currency. First, cryptocurrencies are a lousy way to buy and sell things. Unlike the dollar, their value fluctuates wildly depending on the whims of speculative day traders. You know, in just the last two months, the value of Dogecoin increased by more than ten-fold and then declined by nearly 60 percent. Now that may work for speculators and fly-by-night investors, but not for regular people who are looking for a stable source of value to get paid in and to use for day-to-day spending.

Second, crypto is a lousy investment. Unlike, say, the stock market, the crypto world currently has no consumer protection none. As a result, honest investors and people trying to put aside some savings are at the mercy of fraudsters. Pump and dump schemes are outlawed in the case of ordinary stock, but they have become routine in crypto trading. One study found that the level of price manipulation in cryptocurrency is and I quote unprecedented in modern markets.

And third, crypto has become a haven for illegal activity. Online theft, drug trafficking, ransom attacks, and other illegal activity have all been made easier with crypto. Experts estimate that last year more than $412 million was paid to criminals in ransom through cryptocurrencies. And unlike other payment systems that make it tougher to move money illegally, a key feature of crypto is its secrecy. So just in the past few weeks, cryptocurrencies made it possible for hackers to collect a ransom to release the Colonial pipeline hack and to free JBS, the worlds largest meat producer, from paralyzing cyberattacks. And every hack that is successfully paid off with a cryptocurrency becomes an advertisement for more hackers to try more cyberattacks.

Finally, there are the environmental costs of crypto. Many cryptocurrencies are created through proof-of-work mining. It involves using computers to solve useless mathematical puzzles in exchange for newly minted cryptocurrency tokens. Such mining has devastating consequences for the climate. Some crypto mining is set up near coal plants, spewing out filth in return for a chance to harvest a few crypto coins. Total energy consumption is staggering, driving up demand for energy. If, for example, Bitcoin just one of the cryptocurrencies were a country, it would already be the 33rd largest energy user in the world using more energy yearly than all of the Netherlands.

And all those promised benefits the currency that would be available at no cost to millions of unbanked families and that would provide a haven from the tricks and traps of big banks well, those benefits havent materialized.


The arguments could apply to almost all the digital currencies that exist that use mining and proof of mathematical concepts as validation.
However, there are others that do not require mining that also exist, and thus less likely to be blamed for the useless consumption of vast amounts of power.

As an aside, I was reading about the differences between mined versus non mined digital currencies (see Motley fool ), and read the following
QUOTE
Mining bitcoin requires specialized ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) chips and massive servers, which can rack up expensive electrical bills. This means electricity costs come into play, which is a big reason China, a relatively low-cost country for electricity costs on a kilowatt-per-hour basis, is home to four out of five of the world's largest bitcoin mining farms.

I am not a big fan of the motley fool( just ask EB), so I often look for a secondary validation.
According to coinbase, the above statement may not be correct. It has a list of the 5 largest miners, and only one is in China ( see Coinbase
So much to learn about digital currencies, mining, distributed ledgers etc, and so little time.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 11 2021, 04:59 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Exited ALK this week.
Been a good run, but its getting to the fully priced mark (and beyond) with a PE of 41.
ALK has appeared as a 20% (and increasing) shareholder on the register of GMD.
A takeover offer in the wings?
If thats the case, will not help the SP in the short term.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 11 2021, 04:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

ALK has appeared as a 20% (and increasing) shareholder on the register of GMD.
A takeover offer in the wings?
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 11 2021, 10:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

ADN has signed a legally binding offtake agreement with a Chinese firm to take 70,000 tpa of Kaolin from the mine near Ceduna.
Kinda surprising then that SP fell on the open.
Took a small sample at 26 just to see what happens.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 9 2021, 09:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

And to add to the potential woes from South America, from Zero Hedge
QUOTE
In a continuing trend in Latin American politics of Left-wing political movements on the ascendancy which has seen successful attempts to roll back free market friendly policies in favor of "starting from scratch" toward erecting more interventionist socialist states, the next political and electoral earthquake is set to hit Peru, where socialist candidate Pedro Castillo is maintaining a narrow lead over right-wing rival Keiko Fujimori as votes are still being counted and increasingly contested from Sunday's run-off election.

As of early Tuesday it's still being deemed "too close to call", but with Castillo pulling away Fujimori is now alleging election "irregularities". Son of peasant famers and an outspoken union leader, Castillo has "vowed to nationalize Peru's vast mineral resources, to expel foreigners who commit crimes in the country, and to move towards reinstating the death penalty," according to one profile.
Meanwhile Reuters noted that Peru's sol has continued plummeting to new lows, falling another 1% Tuesday after plunging 2.5% on Monday.


Rinstating the death penalty is always a bit of a worry, especially to his enemies, but the real wrecking ball is the nationalisation of all minerals is a worry.
History has shown that nationalisation never works all that well, and I can't see why Peru would be any different.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 8 2021, 12:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Mr market seems not to agree.
The price is down to the low 50's, and yet it has a P/E of 3 and a yield of 5.8%.
The attractiveness of its high content iron ore pellets have not diminished.
Seems like a low risk investment.
The price of high content fines would have to come off a long long way before it starts to lose money.
If that price does drop to loss making territory, it will likely be for a major disaster reason, in which case it won't help whatever you are holding.
Have piled in at these prices.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 5 2021, 10:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Any one who thinks the world is not completely nuts need to look at a few of these.
1. The San Francisco Police department put out a video of a suspect who set fire to a woman's hair on a bus in S.F. They were seeking help in identifying the suspect, but bizarely decided to pixelate the face of the suspect in the video so its blurred. maybe they planned to look for suspects with the same clothes. see Zero hedge

2. From Twitter comes the exciting news that Eleanor Holmes Norton , a Washington DC Democrat rep, announced this week her intention of introducing a bill requiring both male and female car crash test dummies after claiming they are nowhere near achieving equality, regarding safety testing to keep women safe on the road.

3. And just to prove its not just America, from Italy 24 news
An Italian artist has managed to sell a piece of "art" that is invisible.
QUOTE
The artist originally from Santa Giusta has created an immaterial sculpture, completely invisible, entitled I am: if some layman can have doubts about its artistic value, they will have to change their mind. The work was sold for 15 thousand euros in the auction organized by Art-Rite, one of the rare Italian auction houses that deals with sessions dedicated exclusively to contemporary art.

The work must be placed in a private house within a space free from any obstruction, with dimensions of approximately 150 x 150 centimeters. Estimated at the start of 6 thousand euros, it has doubled the base reaching, at the hammer, 12 thousand euros (15 thousand with auction rights).

Physical, the buyer will find only the guarantee certificate in his hands, which testifies to the archiving of the work and represents the only visual element present in the catalog where, instead of the traditional image of a tangible work, a absolute white space.


Thats it, I'm going to Mars.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 1 2021, 11:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

From the country that brought you Corona 19, comes a new gift, a new strain of bird flu that has passed to humans.
From AP News
What may prove to be the first case of the H10N3 strain of bird flu passing to a human has been detected in China, reports said Tuesday, as local health authorities assured the world the risk of large-scale spread is “low.”

Hmm, not sure if the rest of the world is going to take their assurances all that seriously these days.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 1 2021, 11:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Oman, hmmm, not a country that immediately springs to mind when the question about reliability of sovereign risk is brought up.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jun 1 2021, 10:31 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

UK government funded, pity the OZ govt could not have encouraged them to build it in OZ.
Certainly would have been better than stringing up more wind farms and solar panels.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 30 2021, 06:57 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

As a sort of addendum to my post below, it should be pointed out that Peter Daszak was for some strange reason, one of the senior "experts" who made up the WHO investigative team that went to China to conduct its investigation into the origins of the virus. Conflict of interest? Move on, nothing to see here.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 30 2021, 06:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Very Subtle, very Subtle.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 29 2021, 11:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

It seems that the MSM media have suddenly taken on board the view that the whole "the virus escaped from a Wuhan Lab" thing may just have some credence. More than a few people are saying that those same MSM inhabitants were guilty of trump Derangement Syndrome. Namely, that because Trump said it, it must be wrong and we must all agree. Thus anyone who spoke in favour of it was part of the conspiracy theory lunatic fringe. There may be some measure of truth in that , but it would seem that the real reasons are the usual ones. Self interest. Someone covering up because their arse and livlihood were on the line.

For those of you who have sufficient intellect to understand mildly complex biological articles, the article by Nicholas Wade, a science writer, on the origins of Covid 19 make some interesting reading.
Its long, some sections require rereading to get the hang of it (at least it did for me), but takes away a lot of the emotive language that seems to get bandies about.
from Nicholas Wade

Here is one of the passages that support why the original idea was suppressed. Plain old self interest.
QUOTE
From early on, public and media perceptions were shaped in favor of the natural emergence scenario by strong statements from two scientific groups. These statements were not at first examined as critically as they should have been.
“We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin,” a group of virologists and others wrote in the Lancet on February 19, 2020, when it was really far too soon for anyone to be sure what had happened. Scientists “overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife,” they said, with a stirring rallying call for readers to stand with Chinese colleagues on the frontline of fighting the disease.
Contrary to the letter writers’ assertion, the idea that the virus might have escaped from a lab invoked accident, not conspiracy. It surely needed to be explored, not rejected out of hand. A defining mark of good scientists is that they go to great pains to distinguish between what they know and what they don’t know. By this criterion, the signatories of the Lancet letter were behaving as poor scientists: they were assuring the public of facts they could not know for sure were true.
It later turned out that the Lancet letter had been organized and drafted by Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York. Dr. Daszak’s organization funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. If the SARS2 virus had indeed escaped from research he funded, Dr. Daszak would be potentially culpable. This acute conflict of interest was not declared to the Lancet’s readers. To the contrary, the letter concluded, “We declare no competing interests.”

Daszak is connected to Fauci in the under the table promotion of the so called gain of function research. He may yet be Fauci's achilles heel. It also is a black mark against The Lancet, once considered the epitome of unbiased scientific and medical research.

There is a much longer and more technical section on the letter from Nature medcine from a group of Virologists. This was not a technical article, so did not provide any research, just opinion. Wade takes this to task for some poor scientific statements.


These two articles were widely quoted in the MSM as they collectively joined the conspiracy bandwagon. Wade points out that most large MSM orgs have science writers with science quals like himself, but they either did not ask, or chose to ignore the the obvious questions about this second letter.

It highlights the group think that has pervaded so many of our organisations, but what is worse, is the systematic and deliberate cancelling, bullying, ostracising and harrassing of any one who questions the consensus. Who cares if its right or wrong, its the consensus.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 28 2021, 09:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Another Trading halt.
Spending more time halting than trading.
Is it more results, a speeding ticket from the ASX, Covid 19 issues, or a free set of steak knives.
Its so exciting.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 28 2021, 09:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

RRL has been one of my worst performing gold stocks.
On paper it looked great - a very low P/E of 7, forward P/E of 8, div yield of 4.6%, annual production just shy of 400k ounces at an AISC of a tad below 1300 an ounce.
With gold prices consistently above 2300 an ounce, seemed like a pretty good deal.
The devil of course, is in the detail.
One of the problems is their hedge book.
Todays announcement that they have "rationalised" the dreaded book, still shows the co committed to 100,000 ounces per year at the miserly price of $1571 per ounce for the next three and a bit years.
So roughly a third of their production is committed to a sell price below their AISC. Thats not a good look.
The recent announcement that the investors only took up 20% of the shares the Company was hoping for in the raising to pay for the Tropicanna mine should indicate to management that there might be a problem. Todays price shows it below that rights issue price, and unless gold rockets to dizzy heights, its hard to see it rising much.
Perhaps the fact that Tropicanna was scheduled to produce 380 to 430 k ounces in 2021 at an AISC of $1,730 to $1,860 made them think it was not really that much value adding for the dollars being thrown at it. Assuming best case scenario of the lowest AISC and highest production, and gold stays at 2450, they would expect to pick up about 80 mill per year from the third share. When they paid 903 mill to get that third share, it does not look so good. It would take ten years just to break even.
Looks like RRL might have to go the way of DCN, PRX and SBM.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 27 2021, 11:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Amaero cops a mention by Bob Gotliebsen in the OZ today in relation to defence industries cooperation between the US Defence and OZ suppliers.
Of particular interest is the long term aim of US defence to get supplies of Titannium from somewhere other than China.
Its one of those small highly specialised niche activities that Oz seems to do its best work in.
I bought a small parcel today, along with some ILU, the biggest miner of Titannium oxide, to keep in the bottom drawer.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 27 2021, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Spot on EB, if they were so good they would be running a fund management business and investing in all these wonderful stocks.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 27 2021, 09:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Mactrader posted
QUOTE
Definitely the last post

Yep, sometimes it feels like your posting out in the middle of the the Simpson Desert, not a lot of feedback.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 26 2021, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Too late for me Nip, took the loss and ran away.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 25 2021, 11:55 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

There seems to be a few ducks lining up hat may put the brakes on various forms of cryptocurrency, some political, some financial, some moral.
But now a new problem has emerged distributed ledger type currencies.
Google has announce plans for a commercial Quantum computer by 2029.
So, what would that do for crypto currencies among other things?
From Mishtalk

QUOTE
Let's explore quantum computing, problems it might solve, and what it will do to current security protocols and blockchain.What is a Quantum Computer?

The New Scientist answers the question What is a Quantum Computer?

Classical computers, which include smartphones and laptops, encode information in binary “bits” that can either be 0s or 1s. In a quantum computer, the basic unit of memory is a quantum bit or qubit.

For instance, eight bits is enough for a classical computer to represent any number between 0 and 255. But eight qubits is enough for a quantum computer to represent every number between 0 and 255 at the same time. A few hundred entangled qubits would be enough to represent more numbers than there are atoms in the universe.

In situations where there are a large number of possible combinations, quantum computers can consider them simultaneously. Examples include trying to find the prime factors of a very large number or the best route between two places.
Since Google announced that it achieved quantum supremacy there has been an increasing number of articles on the web predicting the demise of currently used cryptography in general, and Bitcoin in particular. The goal of this article is to present a balanced view regarding the risks that quantum computers pose to Bitcoin.

All known (classical) algorithms to derive the private key from the public key require an astronomical amount of time to perform such a computation and are therefore not practical. However, in 1994, the mathematician Peter Shor published a quantum algorithm that can break the security assumption of the most common algorithms of asymmetric cryptography. This means that anyone with a sufficiently large quantum computer could use this algorithm to derive a private key from its corresponding public key, and thus, falsify any digital signature.

The prerequisite of being “quantum safe” is that the public key associated with this address is not public. But as we explained above, the moment you want to transfer coins from such a “safe” address, you also reveal the public key, making the address vulnerable. From that moment until your transaction is “mined”, an attacker who possesses a quantum computer gets a window of opportunity to steal your coins.

In such an attack, the adversary will first derive your private key from the public key and then initiate a competing transaction to their own address. They will try to get priority over the original transaction by offering a higher mining fee.

In the Bitcoin blockchain it currently takes about 10 minutes for transactions to be mined (unless the network is congested which has happened frequently in the past). As long as it takes a quantum computer longer to derive the private key of a specific public key then the network should be safe against a quantum attack. Current scientific estimations predict that a quantum computer will take about 8 hours to break an RSA key, and some specific calculations predict that a Bitcoin signature could be hacked within 30 minutes.

There's much more to the article including some advice for Bitcoin holders about public keys that needs to be addressed now.

But if quantum computers ever become fast enough, the security of the entire blockchain will melt down.

Deloitte notes the only solution is ‘post-quantum cryptography’ to build robust and future-proof blockchain applications.

That caution applies not only to Bitcoin but to any existing application that uses public-private keys.

How Does This Work?

Post Quantum Cryptography

Wikipedia has an excellent discussion of Post-quantum cryptography

One of the simple proposed solutions is to double the key size but there are practical considerations.

A practical consideration on a choice among post-quantum cryptographic algorithms is the effort required to send public keys over the internet.

The Open Quantum Safe project was started in late 2016 and has the goal of developing and prototyping quantum-resistant cryptography. It aims to integrate current post-quantum schemes in one library.

The Open Quantum Safe project currently supports 6 algorithms.

Beyond that, Forward Secrecy allows the use of one-time keys, generated at random.

Forward secrecy protects data on the transport layer of a network that uses common SSL/TLS protocols, including OpenSSL, when its long-term secret keys are compromised, as with the Heartbleed security bug. If forward secrecy is used, encrypted communications and sessions recorded in the past cannot be retrieved and decrypted should long-term secret keys or passwords be compromised in the future, even if the adversary actively interfered, for example via a man-in-the-middle attack.

The value of forward secrecy is that it protects past communication. This reduces the motivation for attackers to compromise keys. For instance, if an attacker learns a long-term key, but the compromise is detected and the long-term key is revoked and updated, relatively little information is leaked in a forward secure system.

Things may not be quite as simple as simply saying double the key size.


So, did you get all that??
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 24 2021, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

In a trading halt.
No idea as to why.
Quite a few more buyers than sellers lined up at the indicative opeb price.
Perhaps those in the know have some good oil.
Should know by Wednesday.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 24 2021, 10:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Jan Cameron is fast approaching the point where anything she has an association with needs to avoided at all costs.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 24 2021, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The market obviously unimpressed with the latest drilling results.
Must have expected a larger concentration of mineral returns.
Down 10% today.
Might have to bail.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 24 2021, 10:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The market obviously unimpressed with the atest drilling reults.
Must have expected a larger concentration of mineral returns.
Down 10% today.
Might have to bail.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 21 2021, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Nipper said
QUOTE
Is the recent lift in Gold for real or will it fade (again)?


Have no idea. I have been bying the dips selling the pops for the past two years.
Happy to just keep doing it.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 19 2021, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Don't know how you find these little gems Mac, but you have hit on another one.
Congratulations and thanks.
I bought at 18, sold at 21 two days later, then got back in at 18.
Looking at a nice new 3 phase plasma cutter.
ODY has paid for a good chunk of it.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2021, 04:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

After the "unusual" disruption to earths magnetic fields after the CME last week, we may get a bigger bump tonight.
According to Spaceweather
QUOTE
Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on May 18-19 when a pair of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field.

"The two CMEs left the sun on consecutive days: One from sunspot AR2822 on May 13th, the next from sunspot AR2823 on May 14th.

"Individually, the CMEs appear to be weak and insubstantial; however, they could add up to a geomagnetic storm when they arrive in quick succession this Tuesday."


It appeared the previous one was weak and insubstantial, but the KP index shot to 7.
Whats the chances this will be another "unprecedented" event??
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2021, 10:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Could not have happened to a bigger bunch of bastards.
Hope they never get paid.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 18 2021, 08:51 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Ah, Point Nemo.
Have unhappy memories of that place.
An Indian cold caller tried to sell me some water front acreage there.
Said it was exclusive, great privacy, and only receives a few visitors per year.
Luckily I bought a house in Darwin instead.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2021, 09:47 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Another one of those sciency things where the experts were surprised, ass they did not predict it.
from Electroverse

QUOTE
On May 12, a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) released from the Sun hit Earth. The event was supposed to pass by uneventfully — it would perhaps spark a few auroras, but nothing more. So how did a strong G3 geomagnetic storm ensue?

Nobody was expecting a level 3 event from this CME.

Nobody saw the KP Index hitting 7.
And when I say nobody, I mean nobody predicted this: not NASA, NOAA, ESA or IPS in Australia.
The CME’s speed peaked at just 500 km/s (purple line below).

This is a little stronger than your standard solar wind, but weak in terms of a Coronal Mass Ejection.
It was not dense, and the filament released was hardly cause for concern.

“There is absolutely nothing in the history of space weather that advises the expectation of a strong geomagnetic storm off a mild CME produced by the eruption of a small plasma filament,” says Ben Davidson of SpaceWeatherNews.com.

And while a G3-storm / KP7 reading isn’t scary in of itself, the fact that Earth’s ever-waning magnetosphere couldn’t handle such a weak solar event is a cause for concern, particularly given that our planet’s magnetic field was calm at the time–there were no previous impacts or coronal hole streams which preceded the CME.

“The best explanation,” continues Davidson, “is that Earth’s magnetic field is weaker than we’ve all realized.”

In the year 2000, we knew the field had lost 10 percent of its strength since the 1800s.

Another 5 percent was lost by 2010.

Further accelerations occurred in recent years, 2015 and 2017, but we laymen were not privy to any additional loss data–with guesses on why that might be quickly sending you down a conspiracy rabbit hole.


It once again highlights how little we know about things on a macro scale.

It goes on further

QUOTE
Given the last solid data point we have, that of 2010, our magnetic field should have handled Wednesday’s impact far better.

What happens when the next one hits on the heels of a coronal hole stream?

Or if the filament was bigger?

What happens when that X-class solar flare is launched in our direction?


The earths magnetic field is due for a pole swap, this may be the forerunner of a few scary things.

If the event outlined in that last sentence comes true, it will cause untold interruptions to communications, Electricity grids, transport, the internet, banking, and a few others that we didn't even think of.
Would be interesting to say the least.
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 17 2021, 03:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Gold a smidgin below the 2400 handle.
Should mean that the miners can still get good prices for bullion trades.
Most goldies up big time today, silver not far behind.
Inflation on the march,the universe awash if Central Bank largesse. not surprising there is a retreat to hard assets.
One word on digital currencies.
What happens if the internet goes down?
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2021, 01:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

EB, you are assuming of course that the markets ever had any faith in CB's, or more likely, lost faith in them a long time ago.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 14 2021, 10:04 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

GNC hit an 8 year high yesterday.
After 10 weeks touring around South Australia, noticed that there was still plenty of on farm long bag grain storage around the ag areas.
Also noticed plenty of farmers starting to prep for next years crop, I suspect some are even dry sowing in the hope of some moisture.
Grain growers will be looking for the Autumn break, which does not appear on the immediate horizon. Time yet, but after the last El Nino, drier conditions are expected.
I have sold out of the last of the GNC, the potential downside risk is starting to outweigh potential rewards.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: May 11 2021, 07:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

My wife and daughter, both allied health workers, have had theirs, with no ill effects. I had a sore left leg after mine, but it may have been because I had been hiking the day before.
Perhaps most of your mates colleagues just wanted a few days off.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 17 2021, 12:49 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Sometimes you need @ little perspective.
From Wall Street Journal

QUOTE
SAN FRANCISCO—Mike Enright overdosed three times in December. A longtime heroin user, he said he didn’t know his limit after switching to fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid.
“It just hits you so much harder,” Mr. Enright said, sitting on the sidewalk not far from the tent where he sleeps.
Long a scourge on the East Coast, fentanyl is now driving a rapid increase in overdose deaths in the Western U.S.
In the Seattle area, overdose deaths involving fentanyl were up 57% in 2020 over the previous year, according to data from the county medical examiner. Preliminary data show deaths from synthetic opioids like fentanyl rose 162% in the Las Vegas area last year. In Los Angeles County, a recent report blamed fentanyl for a 26% jump in overdose deaths among the homeless population during the first seven months of 2020.
The problem is particularly acute in San Francisco, where a record 708 people died of drug overdoses in 2020, a 61% increase from the previous year. By comparison, 254 people died of Covid-19 in the city last year.
So far, this year has been worse: 135 died by overdose in January and February, on pace for more than 800 deaths by the end of the year.

Fentanyl can be 50 times more potent than heroin, making it possible to overdose on tiny amounts. As a result, when fentanyl hits the streets in force, more people tend to die. That is what has happened in New England and the Rust Belt, where beginning nearly a decade ago it was often mixed into heroin. In some places in the Eastern U.S. it has all but replaced heroin as a popular street opioid.
Fentanyl in the U.S. is often made by Mexican cartels using precursor chemicals from China, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration. It took off in the East faster, in part because of the region’s longstanding problem with opioids. The West has historically been a bigger methamphetamine market, but the cartels are now aggressively pushing fentanyl there, too, often in the form of fake pain pills, said Wade Shannon, special agent in charge of the DEA’s San Francisco office.
Though fentanyl began to show up in San Francisco around 2015, only since 2018 has it become widely available, according to local officials, nonprofit workers and drug users. Overdose deaths in San Francisco increased 173% between 2018 and 2020.
The pandemic has compounded the overdose crisis, according to public health officials. Isolation, stress and job loss drove many people to drugs; with homeless shelters and other congregant living spaces closed, addicts often used drugs alone. If they overdosed, no one was there to help them.
A projected 88,295 people in the U.S. died from overdoses in the 12-month period that ran through last August, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In all of 2019, there were 70,630 drug deaths, a record that was likely broken last year.
Opioids including fentanyl were involved in about 70% of overdose deaths in 2019, according to the CDC.

Lets hope the war on Covid turns out better than the war on drugs.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 16 2021, 08:30 AM


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Posts: 3,343

Seems that lots of people are starting to jump on the inflation bandwagon.
I would not have previously considered Al Jazera a source of economics 101, but the following article seems like its straight of of semester 1 in first year.


From Al Jazero

QUOTE
Commodities rose to their highest in almost eight years amid booming investor appetite for everything from oil to corn.

Hedge funds have piled into what’s become the biggest bullish wager on the asset class in at least a decade, a collective bet that government stimulus plus near-zero interest rates will fuel demand, generate inflation and further weaken the U.S. dollar as the economy rebounds from the pandemic.

Qatar Petroleum to supply 1.25m tonnes of LNG to Bangladesh
Petrobras shares drop as Brazil’s Bolsonaro slams pricing policy
Copper rises over $9,000 as supply tightens in pandemic recovery
Yellen’s yardstick: US Treasury chief sees unemployment as key
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks price movements for 23 raw materials, rose 1.6% on Monday to its highest since March 2013. The gauge has already gained 67% since reaching a four-year low in March.

The day’s gains were helped by copper, which rose above $9,000 a metric ton for the first time in nine years. Oil also jumped on speculation that global supplies are rapidly tightening, while coffee and sugar advanced.

“Folks who have really ignored commodities for quite a long time are now starting to get positioned,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “The implication is that this could go on for a bit. It’s very much a function of expectations of scarcity.”



JPMorgan Chase & Co. said earlier this month that commodities appear to have begun a new supercycle — an extended period during which prices are well above their long-run trend. That echoes similarly comments from others including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Commodities have seen four comparable cycles over the past 100 years.

The asset class is typically seen as a good hedge against inflation, which has recently become more of a concern among investors. The commodities rally will be a story of a “roaring 20s” post-pandemic economic recovery as well as ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said Feb. 10.

Commodities may also jump as an unintended consequence of the fight against climate change, which threatens to constrain oil supplies while boosting demand for metals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure and manufacture batteries and electric vehicles, they said.

Copper is surging amid a broad rally in metals from iron ore to nickel. The bellwether industrial commodity has doubled since a nadir in March, also boosted by rapidly tightening physical markets and prospects for rebounding economic growth.

“The mega-trends that we see playing out around global population growth, the electrification thematic and the energy transition, all of these bode well for commodity demand over the medium-to-long term,” Mike Henry, the chief executive officer of mining giant BHP Group, said last week in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Commodities swings have huge impact on cost of living since they can encompass the price of fuels, power, food and construction projects. They also help shape terms of trade, exchange rates and ultimately the politics of commodity-dependent nations like Canada, Brazil, Chile and Venezuela.

A surge in silver buying continued Monday with spot silver and futures breaching $30 an ounce [File: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg]
Silver rush: Dealers overwhelmed by demand for coins, bars
Dealers like Money Metals, SD Bullion, JM Bullion and Apmex saw unprecedented demand over the weekend.
1 Feb 2021
Japan's key share index jumped to its highest level since 1990 despite showing a slowing economic recovery from the depths of the coronavirus crisis [File: Noriko Hayashi/Bloomberg]
Asian shares at record highs on global vaccine hopes
Successful global roll-out of vaccines has raised hopes of a rapid economic recovery helped by large US fiscal stimulus.
15 Feb 2021
Analysts expect the cold snap in Texas to lead to continuing disruptions to oil supplies for some time more [File: Matthew Busch/Bloomberg]
Texas’s big freeze pushes oil prices to 13-month highs
Texas oil producers and refiners remain shut due to icy cold weather, cutting output by 1-4 million barrels per day.
18 Feb 2021
Pumpjacks operate in the snow in the Permian Basin in Midland, Texas, the United States, where weather has reduced the nation's refining capacity by one-fifth [File: Matthew Busch/Bloomberg]
Oil prices dip after surpassing $65 a barrel amid Texas cold snap
Brent crude had gained for four straight sessions before Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate had risen for three
.

Mick




  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 13 2021, 07:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Ever since watching back to the future, I have always wanted a Delorean.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Apr 6 2021, 02:13 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

So it appears official now. China has announced that it will create a digital currency,.
From

Wsj

A thousand years ago, when money meant coins, China invented paper currency. Now the Chinese government is minting cash digitally, in a re-imagination of money that could shake a pillar of American power.
It rmight seem money is already virtual, as credit cards and payment apps such as Apple Pay in the US and WeChat in China eliminate the need for bills or coins. But those are just ways to move money electronically. China is turning legal tender itself into computer code.
Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin have foreshadowed a potential digital future for money, though they exist outside the traditional global financial system and aren’t legal tender like cash issued by governments.
China’s version of a digital currency is controlled by its central bank, which will issue the new electronic money. It is expected to give China’s government vast new tools to monitor both its economy and its people. By design, the digital yuan will negate one of bitcoin’s major draws: anonymity for the user.
China has indicated the digital yuan will circulate alongside bills and coins for some time. Bankers and other analysts say Beijing aims to digitise all of its money eventually. Beijing hasn’t addressed that.

I am away with all the other grey nomads, been off the grid for days at a time, so have not taken much notice of markets. Can’t say I have missed it.
Happy to spend this years earnings.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2021, 07:06 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

No, stick with New Zealand, they really need you.
We already have enough lunatics in Canberra.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 16 2021, 02:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Plastic, you really should run for a seat in the NZ parliament.
They could do with someone of your logic and intellect in their house.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 15 2021, 10:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

According to Doug Casey at International Man

The US govt is/has thrown about six times the estimated lost w@ges during the lastvten months of the covid shutdown.


QUOTE
Even if you want to count everything, including losses from the $2.5 trillion of imputed activity in the GDP, the pending $6 trillion of Everything Bailouts is 7.7X the size of the problem!

By contrast, it is well worth looking at the other side of the coin: namely, the surge in transfer payments since last February stemming from a combination of the built-in safety net (principally unemployment insurance, food stamps and Medicaid) and disbursements of stimmy checks, enhanced Federal UI benefits as authorized by the Everything Bailouts.

At the pre-covid level in February, total government transfer payments (including state and local) were running at a $3.165 trillion annual rate or about $265 billion per month. As shown in the chart below, however, that monthly figure skyrocketed by 107% to $546 billion in the month of April alone.

And, no, that latter figure is not the annualized rate: In their infinite generosity, government programs pumped more than one-half trillion dollars into the household sector during April alone. That’s $18.2 billion per day!

Thereafter, the tsunami of transfer payments began to abate but was still running at a level of $400 billion monthly in July and $306 billion in November. Overall, the 10-month total of incremental transfer payments above the February level totaled $1.05 trillion.

You can’t make this up. Transfer payments to households during the past 10 months have exceeded the loss of household wages and salaries ($276 billion) by nearly four times.

Given that the stmmy checks cut out at the rather high level of 200’000 for a married couple, thats a fair bit of middle class welfare.
And its not the end of it, there have been more promises of checks in the future.
This cannot end well.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 12 2021, 06:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Some time ago, WBC got a 1.3 bill fine from AUSTRAC which is the biggest fine in OZ corporate history. See Austrac

Today, APRA announced it is closing th biggest case in corporate history. SeeBusiness daily
So the shareholders of WBC are stung for 1.3 billion, when they did nothing wrong.
The ones who did the wrong? No one went to jail, no one got banned, no one even got fired.
Now thats what I call executive privilege.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 9 2021, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Market though it was ok, up 78%.
Have had some low ball bids in there that look like they are not going to get taken out.
I may have missed this boat.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 9 2021, 11:08 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

WSA sitting at no 9 with a bullet on the shortman most shorted top 100.
Around 7.5 % shorted.
Should I worry??
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 9 2021, 08:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

According to Goldman Sachs, most advanced economies will have acheived herd immunity byJuly/August this year.
Not sure if Goldman Sachs has any expertise at all, much less in pandemic predictions, but they put em out there.
From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
The drop in global new infections has stalled in the past month, in part because more contagious variants are now spreading widely. This pattern can be clearly observed in the US, where the seven-day average of new cases in the US is decreasing albeit at a slowing rate, around 60,000, while the seven day average in Europe remains at around 62,000. As BofA notes, the increasing spread of new, more contagious variants appears to be slowing the effect from restrictions and the vaccine roll-out.

On a more positive note, however, hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline. While some of this improvement probably reflects lags, another reason proposed by Goldman is that the most vulnerable populations in advanced economies such as the US and UK are now largely protected. And as vaccine supply and eligibility broaden, the share of the population with at least some immunity is likely to rise rapidly in coming months.

As shown in the chart below, vaccines administered around the globe continues to rise with BofA calculating that the US administered 15 million vaccines over the past week, increasing the total to 90.4 million; Europe administered 13 million doses this past week, for a total of 73.8m (and according to preliminary data from a study conducted at the University of Oxford, the Covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca/Oxford to be effective against the Brazilian variant of the virus).


This of course gives new meaning to the phrase "Getting the Brazillian".

QUOTE
Putting this all together, Goldman now estimates that most advanced economies should cross the point at which 60-70% of the population are immune by Q2 or early Q3, with continental Europe a few months behind the US and UK. In other words, regardless of the CDC's attempt to provoke a low-burning panic over new virus variants, Goldman believes that herd immunity will be hit in the next 3-4 months.


The final quote from the article was the one I liked best

QUOTE
It was none other than Billionaire Paul Singer, unafraid of being steamrolled by "cancel culture" who said it best: the recovery will be stymied by virus variants and policies “that sometimes seem governed by short-term political pressures rather than what is best for society, short and long term.”

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 8 2021, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Back into LKE at .33 just in case there is another run on lithium.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 8 2021, 09:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Recent drilling results out of Mt Kaiser nothing spectacular, though it probably will increase resources.
Better than the Dud at BLZ.
ALK, along with all the goldies, up today.
Maybe because with so many institutional players on a long weekend, the keyboard warruors like ourselves can see what really goes on.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 7 2021, 09:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Following on from my last post about possible regulatory interference in bitcoin,

from Bloombergs
QUOTE
The Biden administration will soon have to settle a Bitcoin fight it didn’t even start, and its decision could have far-reaching implications for the virtual currency industry.

The battle concerns last-minute rules proposed by the outgoing Trump administration that would create new requirements for financial services firms to record the identities of cryptocurrency holders. The measures are meant to smother attempts to use Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for money laundering or to finance illegal activities. If adopted, they could cause cryptocurrency prices to plummet, according to some analysts.

Heavyweights from both K Street and Wall Street have mobilized against the rule, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, mutual fund giant Fidelity Investments and venture-capital firm Union Square Ventures. Cryptocurrency players like the Winklevoss twins, the Blockchain Association and Coinbase Inc. are also fighting the measures.

After President Donald Trump lost the election, the Treasury Department raced to issue the rules, which fell under its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network or FinCEN. The move generated thousands of negative comments and drew the threat of a lawsuit by a crypto trade group -- prompting a last-minute reprieve that pushed the final decision to the Biden administration and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. There’s no timetable for when a decision will be made.

The proposal threatens what some view as Bitcoin’s strongest feature: the ability to send money without the government watching. Users whose wallets now are only identified with codes would have their true identities recorded with the financial institutions they zealously avoided.

If Yellen moves forward with the rules, crypto proponents say some virtual-currency services will become more costly and some uses of such currencies could disappear completely. If she doesn’t, some fear criminals will be free to circumvent U.S. surveillance to hide money or finance terrorism.

If adopted, the regulations could cause a sharp fall in the prices of virtual currencies like Bitcoin, said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co., adding that he thinks Bitcoin’s price will continue to rise in the long term. On Thursday at 5 p.m. in New York, one Bitcoin cost $47,919, up 5.7% from the end of February, but still nearly 18% below its peak on Feb. 21.

“Bitcoin is very risky and very volatile and it’s going to continue to be that way. If you add something like a new regulation, it’s going to be very vulnerable to a correction,” Maley said.

Regulatory threats haven't dampened Bitcoin's price.
At issue is a FinCEN proposal meant to make it harder for Bitcoin users to hide their identities. One part of the rule would require banks and money services businesses, like cryptocurrency exchanges, to file a report to the Treasury when a customer moves at least $10,000-worth of virtual currency into a wallet not hosted at an exchange. Those so-called unhosted wallets can be kept offline and are hard to track. Banks send such reports under anti-money laundering rules when customers withdraw $10,000 in cash.

The second part of the regulation would require banks and exchanges to keep a record whenever their customers send $3,000-worth of virtual currencies to someone else’s unhosted wallet. The record would have to include the identity of the counterparty, something that Bitcoin advocates said would be expensive and sometimes impossible to verify.

Normally, such rules undergo a lengthy public process that involves months of feedback and revisions. But when FinCEN published the rule on Dec. 18, it said it wanted to move swiftly and allowed only 15 days for comments -- during a time period that included both Christmas and New Year’s Eve. As a rationale, FinCEN officials said the lack of oversight on some transactions was a national security threat.

The truncated comment period took Bitcoin advocates by surprise, said Kristin Smith, who leads the Blockchain Association, a cryptocurrency trade group. Smith said she had expected the Treasury to take several months, but it suddenly became an “all-hands-on-deck situation.” The organization in December threatened to sue Treasury for rushing the process.

Crypto advocates flooded FinCEN with comments, arguing that the process was rushed and the rules were unworkable. FinCEN to date has received about 7,600 public comments.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce wrote that the rule would have “unintended long-term consequences” on the virtual currency industry. Hedge-fund manager Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Holdings LP also submitted comments excoriating the proposal.

Gemini, a crypto exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss -- the twins who settled a long-running dispute with Facebook Inc. founder Mark Zuckerberg over who had the idea for the social media network -- wrote that FinCEN’s proposal could actually increase money laundering by encouraging criminals to move all of their crypto activities to unregulated markets outside the U.S.

Republican lawmakers, including former Representative Cynthia Lummis, who is now a Wyoming senator; Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton and Democratic Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, also reached out to Mnuchin in letters and phone calls to criticize the rule and short comment period.

Fight for the Future, a digital rights advocacy group, set up a website, called “Stop Financial Surveillance,” that said FinCEN’s proposal would “facilitate extremely intense financial surveillance on an unprecedented scale.” The site included a web form for users to easily send a comment to the Treasury, which product director Dayton Young said has been used more than 3,000 times.

Some individual virtual currency owners who didn’t give their names told FinCEN the rule would unfairly expand surveillance of American citizens.

The Treasury Department in January yielded to the pressure and ultimately extended the comment period to the end of March, leaving the matter to the Biden administration, which could make a decision later this year.

That for us was our moment of victory,” said Smith. “Crypto won.”

The Biden administration plans to keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s rise in the market. Gary Gensler, Biden’s pick to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission, at his confirmation hearing on Tuesday said the SEC under his watch would ensure cryptocurrency markets “are free of fraud and manipulation.”

Last week, Yellen echoed some of the fears expressed by her predecessor, Steven Mnuchin.

“I don’t think that Bitcoin -- I’ve said this before -- is widely used as a transaction mechanism,” said Yellen at an online event hosted by the New York Times’s DealBook. “To the extent it’s used, I fear it’s often for illicit finance.”

Regulators have long been wary that virtual currencies are used to skirt sanctions or finance terrorism. Crypto exchange Coinbase in a securities filing last week disclosed that it had responded to subpoenas and voluntarily disclosed information on some transactions to the Treasury’s sanctions enforcement agency.

Mnuchin personally pushed hard to try to ensure that the new rules would be in place before the end of the Trump administration, despite the hesitancy of some staff members inside FinCEN, said two people familiar with the matter. Mnuchin said in response to a request for comment that the interim rule was supported on an interagency basis. He said he briefed Yellen on the proposal as she took over the department. A Treasury spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Now, virtual-currency associations and executives are trying to convince FinCEN staff to eliminate parts of the rule, said the Blockchain Association’s Smith, adding that they are unsure when Yellen or other Biden appointees will decide how to proceed.

Beyond lobbying, organizations like Fight for the Future are holding public events on Reddit and YouTube to try to convince more virtual-currency enthusiasts to weigh in and run up the comment-count at FinCEN even more.

“We’re trying to spread the news so people recognize the gravity of the situation,” said Peter Van Valkenburgh, director of research at Coin Center, a nonprofit virtual currency advocacy organization.


There are obvious ways around this stupid proposal, transfer your money to an offshore account with a non US bank and buy cryptos in a jurisdiction not covered by US law.
But I don't think this is the main game. Its a softening up process to bring in some sort of regulation that they really want.

Mick

  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 7 2021, 09:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Today, as I look at the Chart, the BDI is sitting at 1829, an enormous 450% increase since its lows around 393 back in March 2020.
This is reflected in the market for container ships. Costs for an average size 6800 container ship have gone from less than USD15,000 back in April 2020 to nearly USD38,000 per day this week.
From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
No one predicted that the global shipping container industry would be on fire in the last couple of quarters, considering China's robust economic rebound following the virus-induced downturn. Container rates have soared since last spring as there are few signs of immediate cooling.

Container shipowners are capitalizing on the red hot ocean freight market by flipping older ships. Monaco-based International Maritime Enterprises sold its container ship Crete I for $46 million, more than four times its 2016 value ($11 million), according to Bloomberg, citing a new industry report via TradeWinds. The market for second-hand ships is soaring as the sale of new vessels has sunk in the last couple of years. A typical container ship takes more than one year to build - so boosting new ship supply cannot be readily done - hence why demand increase and value explosions are being observed on the secondary markets.

Clarkson Research Services Ltd. said a 10-year-old container ship with the capacity to haul 6,600 steel boxes fetches about $41 million today - that's a considerable jump from its $9.5 million value back in 2016.
"The recent price increases have happened far more quickly than previous sales and purchase cycles," said Stephen Gordon, managing director at Clarkson Research. "Recent prices trends for 10-year-old vessels have more than doubled in less than six months, whereas in 2016-17 and 2004-2005 it took nearly 18 months for similar percentage price increases."

"February was the second-highest activity on record for transactions measured in ship container capacity," Gordon said.

Time charter rates for a 6,800-box container ship have erupted.
Container shipping data from Freightos and Harper Petersen & Co show container rates have been surging since April-June of 2020.Demand for freight containers and the heavy flows from China to the US East/West Coast has resulted in a shipping container shortage in Asia.

In September, we first noted that demand for ocean freight out of China was "leading to equipment shortages in Asia."

"The surge in volumes is leading to equipment shortages in Asia. Some shippers are paying premiums on top of spiking rates to guarantee containers and space. The imbalance is also putting pressure on overwhelmed US ports and importers to process and return empty containers quickly."

While the buying frenzy for second-hand container ships continues - we suspect this trend will last until the global economic rebound stalls - with China's credit impulse already peaking - this could be in the second half of this year.


The costs of the container shipping is adding to the cost of renting the containers themselves, as a huge shortage of containers as well as long container turn around times are affecting movements.
From Container news
QUOTE
Equipment shortages in Chinese ports, particularly Qingdao, Lianyungang, Ningbo and Shanghai have intensified over the last week with delays to vessels increasing the confusion and container shortages.

According to the Container xChange, US ports on the west coast, and further east in Chicago in particular, have struggled to cope with a surge in imports, putting West Coast facilities “under immense pressure”.

Container xChange reports, “The many containers arriving at the ports must be transported to terminals and warehouses. For that, they need chassis. Chassis that many places are now in shortage, creating congestion issues. Containers stuck at the ports also mean that many operations are put to a halt. Something, that also influences the container availability.”

US West Coast port congestion was confirmed by US transport consultant Jon Monroe, who said, “US importers and trucking companies struggle to work with some of the terminals, especially in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.”

“I understand that this week terminal pick-ups were more problematic as labour took time off on election day. Chassis are still an issue. Most decent sized trucking companies are trying to utilise street turns,” he added.

This will have to start flowing thru to the cost of goods soon, which of course will add a bit of curry to the inflation rockets.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 7 2021, 08:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

GGG cops a mention in This ABC article.

QUOTE
A proposed rare earth mine, which if approved will be the world's second largest, is shaping up as the nation's potential answer.

The mined materials would be used in renewable energy technologies that could slow or reverse climate change.

But it's risky business, environmentally and politically, especially when a superpower is involved, and hoping to mine uranium from the same vein.

That's the case for the proposed Kvanefjeld mine, for which Greenland Minerals, an Australian company with a Chinese partner, has been trying for more than a decade to get approval, spending some $83 million on environmental, safety and feasibility studies.Greenland Minerals' corporate social responsibility manager and geologist Johannes Kyed said studies on the project have been rigorous.

"In my own opinion, this is one of the most comprehensive studies made on a project like this, and [it's] understandable, because there is uranium in the rock," Mr Kyed, who grew up in southern Greenland, said.

But fierce debate among Greenlanders may yet derail the project.

Proponents say profits from the Kvanefjeld mine could speed up Greenland's bid to gain full independence from Denmark rather than its current limited self-rule, by reducing dependence on Denmark's annual subsidy of roughly $800 million.

Opponents say the proposed open-pit mine would deface a pristine and fragile ecosystem in the only part of this mostly ice-covered island, where climate change's warming temperatures allow new farms to provide Greenlanders with lamb, vegetables, strawberries and even honey.


Whats the chances that the Greenland government end up cancelling whatever they have proceeded with for GGG, and some previously unknown company based in China takes over.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 6 2021, 07:02 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Poms in serious trouble at 6 down and still trailing by 70 odd runs.
may well have another three day test, perhaps even quicker than the last one.
Looks like an Indian VS New Zealand test Championship at Lords.
Although, if England can turn it around when the Indians tour this year, they might sneak into the final at Indias expense.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 6 2021, 02:53 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Not a lot of cicketers make a good captain, and very few make a great captain.
Seems Usman fits into neither category.
Just noticed Cameron Green sitting on 112NO.
And against a reasonable bowling attack that includes Starc, Hazelwood, Lyon and Abbot.
3 out of his last four innings have been centuries.
Obviously learnt a thing or two during his stint with the test team.
When you look at the form players in OZ cricket , apart from Green who has three centuries in Shield cricket this year, the other standouts have been Travis Head , Moses Henriques, and Shaun Marsh who also have scored 3 centuries.
Usman sits in 15th place but has two centuries.
However, he has a lower runs aggregate and lower average than pace bowler Sean Abbott who sits at 12th position.

Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 5 2021, 06:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

My apologies, I misread the article.
One of my wayward sons has a collection of Dr Suess books.
Reckons its better than bitcoin now.
Again.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 5 2021, 04:44 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Well, you won't be able to buy any Dr Seuss books at Amazon, they have been banned due to the author being a racist.
However, you can buy one A. Hitlers book called Mein Kampf ( see Amazon)
Seems theres racists,, then theres racism.
Got me stumped.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 5 2021, 04:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Maybe its just purely and simply a total dearth of quality businesses to list.
Mick
  Forum: NZX

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 5 2021, 09:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I think it is Stoinis and Phillipe's turn this match.
With a quickfire 50 from Agar.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 4 2021, 09:21 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

EB, you might be saved yet!
According to ISrael21C

QUOTE
Even with Israel’s world-leading rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations, drugs to treat Covid patients are in desperate need across the world.

Two such drugs developed in Israel show great promise in clinical trials: EXO-CD24 and Allocetra.EXO-CD24, an experimental inhaled medication developed at Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, cured all 30 moderate-to-severe cases in a Phase I clinical trial.

Developed over the past six months at the hospital, EXOCD24 stops the “cytokine storm” – where the immune system goes out of control and starts attacking healthy cells – that occurs in the lungs of 5-7% of Covid-19 patients.

“To date, the preparation has been tried with great success on 30 severe patients, in 29 of whom the medical condition improved within two to three days and most of them were discharged home within three to five days. The 30th patient also recovered but after a longer time,” the hospital reports.

“The drug is based on exosomes, [vesicles] that are released from the cell membrane and used for intercellular communication. We enrich the exosomes with 24CD protein. This protein is expressed on the surface of the cell and has a known and important role in regulating the immune system,” explained Dr. Shiran Shapira, director of the laboratory of Prof. Nadir Arber, who has been researching the CD24 protein for over two decades.

“The preparation is given by inhalation, once a day, for only a few minutes, for five days,” Shapira said.

She said the experimental treatment has two unique characteristics. The first is that it inhibits the over-secretion of cytokines. The second is that it is delivered directly to the lungs and therefore has no systemic side effects that injected or oral drugs can cause.

“Even if the vaccines perform their function, and even if no new mutations are produced then still in one way or another the corona will remain with us,” said Arber, director of the medical center’s Integrated Cancer Prevention Center. “To this end, we have developed a unique drug, EXO-CD24.”

Arber added that this advanced preparation “can be produced quickly and efficiently and at a very low cost in every pharmaceutical facility in the country, and in a short time globally.”

Prof. Ronni Gamzu, CEO of the medical center, said, “Prof. Arber’s results for first-phase research were excellent and gave us all confidence in the method he has been researching [here] for many years. I personally assisted him in further obtaining the approvals from the Ministry of Health for further research.”Meanwhile, Enlivex Therapeutics last week reported positive results from a multi-center Phase II clinical trial of its experimental Covid-19 immunotherapy drug Allocetra in severe and critical Covid-19 patients.

We reported in October that five Covid-19 intensive care patients were discharged from Hadassah University Medical Center in Jerusalem after treatment withAllocetra.

Nine severe and seven critical Covid-19 patients were treated with Allocetra in the Phase II clinical trial. Fourteen of them recovered and were discharged from the hospital after an average of 5.3 days.

The Phase II trial originally was expected to enroll 24 patients but was “completed early in support of anticipated accelerated regulatory filings of the trial’s positive safety and efficacy data,” Enlivex reported.

Altogether, 19 out of 21 Phase II and Phase Ib Allocetra trial patients recovered and were discharged from the hospital after an average of 5.6 days. Most of the patients in both studies had pre-existing risk factors such as male gender, obesity and hypertension.

“The results we have seen from the 12 Covid-19 patients treated to date with Allocetra are exciting,” said Prof. Vernon van Heerden, head of the General Intensive Care Unit at Hadassah and the lead investigator of both clinical trials.

“The Phase II patients who have been discharged from the hospital are currently healthy. We believe that these compelling results have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of Allocetra in these complicated patients, highlighting the potential of Enlivex’s product candidate to benefit severe and critical Covid-19 patients as well as others suffering from cytokine storms and organ dysfunctions across various clinical indications.”

Allocetra is based on the research of Enlivex chief scientific and medical officer Dr. Dror Mevorach, head of internal medicine and of one of Hadassah’s coronavirus wards. It works by restoring balance to the immune system.

Mevorach said Allocetra “may have utility as a safe and efficacious treatment … regardless of the specific coronavirus mutation that afflicted the patients, and across different life-threatening, high mortality clinical indications with high unmet medical needs.”


Both of them are tiiny studies, and it may well end up as being another of those drugs are very effective to only a small subgroup of hunans, but we wait he larger clinical trials.
The problems with drugs that treat the disease as distinct from vaccines that prevent it, is that as te number of cases dryy up, so does the available pool for phase 3 trials.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 4 2021, 08:41 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Gary Gensler, now appearing before the senate confirmation inquisition,
has reiterated his plans to examine the business models that allowed the recent gamestop short squeeze.
From Zero hedge
QUOTE
Incoming SEC Chair Gary Gensler has said at the U.S. Senate confirmation hearing for the nominees to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that he's going to be examining the payment for order flow business model closely.

He committed to looking at the business model that has been at the center of the GameStop controversy for the past several weeks, according to Bloomberg on Tuesday. Critics of the system (including Zero Hedge) have pointed to how frontrunning could be prevalent as a result of the model. This ostensibly could result in clients of zero commission brokerages not getting the best possible execution on trades.

Gensler also said he's going to scrutinize trading apps that encourage "gamification" of trading, according to Yahoo. He is specifically looking at “how to protect investors using trading applications with behavioral prompts designed to incentivize traders to trade more.”


Unfortunately, given his impotence when head of the CFTC, I am am not at all confident he will be able to do anything about it, other than finger Reddit, Robinhood etc, while the big players, nbamely the banks and big hedge who do the paying for front running will once again get off scot free.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 4 2021, 07:54 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

One of the trends in US financial circles that I have only begun to take notice of is the creation of SPAC's, or Special Purpose Acquisition Company. These are not to be confused with that other US creation called SPAC, or Super Political Action Comittee.
They are probably both as corrupt as each other, but that is another story.
From CNBC
QUOTE
A special purpose acquisitions company is essentially a shell company set up by investors with the sole purpose of raising money through an IPO to eventually acquire another company.

For instance, Diamond Eagle Acquisition Corp. was set up in 2019 and went public as a SPAC that December. It then announced a merger with DraftKings and gambling tech platform SBTech. DraftKings began trading as a public company when the deal closed in April.

So a SPAC has no commercial operations — it makes no products and does not sell anything. In fact, the SPAC’s only assets are typically the money raised in its own IPO, according to the SEC.

Usually a SPAC is created, or sponsored, by a team of institutional investors, Wall Street professionals from the world of private equity or hedge funds, while even high-profile CEOs like Richard Branson and fellow billionaire Tilman Fertitta have jumped on the trend and formed their own SPACs.


From The SPACtacle
QUOTE
The special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) craze that started last year is showing no signs of abating, with sponsors of the so-called blank-check companies raising record sums of money so far this year. Investors put $32 billion in new SPACs in February, the largest month of issuance on record. The total of $123 billion raised by blank-check companies in the first two months of 2021 is just under $30 billion short of 2020’s full-year total, according to a recent Goldman Sachs Research note.
And SPAC sponsors are getting more ambitious, targeting larger companies to take public than usual. The amount of activity in the space has raised eyebrows among regulators, some of whom allege that the vehicles lack transparency. Others call it a bubble.

In reality, it’s more a way of reintroducing risks that regulators have taken off the table. The IPO process is long and arduous and requires reams of legal documents and fairness opinions. The laws surrounding IPOs mean that investment banks and lawyers tend to take public companies that have proven track records, while riskier companies are kept private. The much-derided “IPO pop” is partially a result of the risk aversion embedded into the IPO process. SPACs, on the other hand, segregate risks among different parties, and facilitate the public listing of earlier-stage companies.

When a SPAC gets listed, it sells shares for $10 and promises to use the proceeds to merge with a private company. The shareholders can then exchange their SPAC shares for shares in the new company, or ask for $10 back. Each share also carries a warrant that allows investors to buy an additional share at $11.50 after the merger.

The above article is worth a read as it explains who gets what out of this scheme, and how it bypasses many regulations.
Which brings me to the third part of this speech.
In the same way that viewers have spurned Sports and academy awards broadcasts for their overtly one sided political interferences, it seems that investors have spurned overtly political investor schemes.
Colin Kaepernick who started the taking the knee craze and has become the lightning rod for racism in sport and life in general , became major league sponsor for an SPAC called Mission Advancement.
After raisng $300million, shares of the blank-check firm, which boasts of a board made up entirely of “Black, Indigenous and people of color,” were flat at $10.01 at 12:42 p.m. Wednesday.
According to Bloomberg, the company, which is in part run by Jahm Najafi, who heads private-equity firm Najafi Companies, sold 30 million units for $10 apiece Tuesday. Najafi and Kaepernick will "focus on diversity issues and racial justice" and aim to acquire a consumer company with an enterprise value around $1 billion.
At least on its first day of trading, the market is less than excited about the possibility.
It seems the market has little faith in the business acumen of ports stars.
As Bloomberg also notes, today's debut for Kaepernick’s SPAC marked the second former-professional athlete-backed blank check company to go public in the last 10 days. Former Yankee all-star Alex Rodriguez’s Slam Corp. rose 5.1% in its first day of trading on Feb. 23, but has since trimmed gains to just 0.9%.

Never let politcs, religion, or sport get in the way of making a buck.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 4 2021, 07:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

OZ A managed a win against Nuw Zulund.
Maxi and Finch finally fire.
Agar gets a six fer, and thus now as the top two bowling performances by all Australian bowlers in T20's.
For the NZer's, this new bloke Devon Conway is someone to keep an eye on.
His own eye is pretty good and he strikes a mean ball.
Series still alive at 2-1 in best of 5, maybe the OZ boys just peaking slowly.
Have greater faith in OZ Women.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 3 2021, 04:04 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Trump still looms big and mean across the divide of US politics.
But his supporters are just not going away quietly.
According to BloombergsThe NBA Finals were down 61% in ratings and 13% overall from the previous season.
The NFL superbowl TV audience was the lowest in 15 years, and there was a general decline of 11% over the year.
Lots of reasons have been put forward as to why, though the persistent politicisation of sports has not helped.
Recently, the norm has been that those who fail to take the knee, end up taking the boot.
The latest American ritual to take a boot was that cultural peak called the Golden Globes.
The only good part of this spectacular in the past was watching the Hollywood Elites squirming as Ricky Gervais eviscerated them with his pointed take down of their gross hypocrisy.
This obviously white male supremacist has been given the boot for two white female supremacists, who as has become the norm, joined many of the award recipients in giving lectures about how we need more diversity, especially fewer WMS, despite the furore over the WAPO pointing out that the group of people picking winners and losers had not a single person of colour among its dignitaries.
And like the sports, the GG's did not fare to well with audiences, as audience numbers fell by 64% from last year.
The real kicker was that the ratings for the Trump Appearance at the CPAC, which was broadcast at the samme time as the GG's, managed to score 6.7 million TV viewers, almost matching the GG audience of 6.9 million.
All of these figures are despite so many people being forced to stay at home during most of the ratings period.
I missed Ricky, especially his caustic comment from last year, or maybe the year before.

QUOTE
"So, if you do win an award tonight, don't use it as a platform to make a political speech. You're in no position to lecture the public about anything. You know nothing about the real world. Most of you spent less time in school than Greta Thunberg. So, if you win, come up, accept your little award. Thank your agent and your god, and f*** off!"


Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 3 2021, 03:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

RMS up 13% today.
Nothing changed, just the cycling of sentiment between buy and sell.
Few days of heavy selling, then heavy buying.
Take what ever we can get.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 3 2021, 02:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

No one ever went broke taking a profit is my motto.
But yes, it may well go higher, but I have been in and out of this one a few times, so hoping I get another chance to get back in again at a lower price.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 3 2021, 10:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Up 20% today.
Sold half and took my profit.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 3 2021, 10:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The fundamentals for gold have changed little over the past few months.
Last night we saw the PM's gain a bit in the US market, but it has fallen a tad in AUD terms today.
But that has not stopped a big in some PM stocks this morning.
RMS up 10%, PRX up 8%, while others such as SLR, SBM, RRL are up 3%, and others such as DCN and EVN have barely moved.
It looks like the traders have decided that Goldies have fallen enough and are now into another run.
Nothing has changed much in terms of these stocks, its purely sentiment. (aka manipulation).
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2021, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

So, the Korean proposed plant passes the feasibility test.
The real action will be when we find out how much it will cost, and how big the cap raising will be.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2021, 03:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I am a retiree, and most certainly agree.
My wife, a pharmacist, has for years been dealing with the children of elderly parents who put them in the cheapest home they can find, then quibble about any medicines or non prescriptive health related items.
The main reason, being they don't want to see their inheritance go to keeping their parent(s) in comfort.
Taxpayers should not be paying for aged care, at least not if the aged person has assets.
I notice Albo has mooted the idea of a levy on taxpayers to pay for aged care.
Like the Medicare levy, which was supposed to be temporary, it will just be swallowed up into revenue, and the aged care sector will still get screwed.
You only have to look at what happens with the petrol levy was supposed to go to road funding.
Well of course the amount raised in the petrol levy far exceeds the amount spent on roads.
Governments of all persuasions just keep spending money without any chance of ever getting their budgets in order, its in their DNA.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2021, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The conspiracy folk have repeatedly said that giving up freedoms under the blanket of COVID 19 emergency measureb"were just the thin edge of the wedge".
Well, now the WA Premier, Mark McGown has just given them some more ammunition.
From Todays Australian

QUOTE
WA premier Mark McGowan is looking to extend the state’s border controls beyond the pandemic, flagging that approvals and tracking of interstate arrivals may become permanent.

Mr McGowan said he was in discussions with the state’s police commissioner over whether the ‘G2G’ system - under which the entry of visitors into the state is logged - could remain indefinitelyHe said the border rules had had a dramatic impact on the importation of drugs into the state.

‘We have obviously had a significant reduction in meth usage in Western Australia, part of that is the measures we’ve already taken, our meth action plan but also the border measures,’ he said at a press conference on Tuesday.

‘The police commissioner and I will continue to talk about what can be done to protect the state from the scourge of meth and other drugs and if necessary we will look at measures we can bring in should we be re-elected.’

He said drug use in WA had reduced markedly over the course of the pandemic due to disruptions of supply, and expanding the border restrictions could help maintain that progress.

‘If civil libertarians and the like don’t like that, my argument would be that keeping meth out of Western Australia is very very important,’ he said.

The High Court ruled last year that WA’s border restrictions were constitutional due to the pandemic, and Mr McGowan said he would seek legal advice as to whether stopping the import of drugs would be similarly valid.

‘Meth is a threat to people’s health and we’ve had a 25 per cent or thereabouts reduction in meth usage, so some of the measures we’ve put in place have worked so we will continue to look at what can be done to keep the people safe from meth across WA.’

He said vehicles crossing the border into WA were already searched for fruit and vegetables, and searches could be expanded to illicit drugs.

The comments come ahead of the March 13 state election.


Looks like the power of incumbency and almost universal approval rating has gone to his head.
I would not cross the border if I am to be treated like an alien.
Mick


  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2021, 11:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Statistics never cease to offer surprises in areas you might not expect.
COVID has had a profound effect on the world, but one of the surprising outcomes is the level of savings in the US.
from Zero Hedge
QUOTE
U.S. personal incomes soared in January as Americans received another batch of pandemic-relief checks, resulting in a spike of total excess personal savings.

According to the Commerce Department report, incomes increased by 10% MoM, the largest gain in nine months. The January jump came after the $900 billion pandemic aid package passed in December. As a reminder, the bill included $600 stimulus checks per American, including adults and children. However, the size of the payment decreased for people who earned more than $75,000 in the 2019 tax year. The check disappeared altogether for those who earned more than $99,000. In addition, the legislation supplemented jobless benefits with an extra $300 a week payment.

Meanwhile, purchases increased 2.4% MoM, pushing personal saving rate up to 20.5%, the highest since May 2020. In this context, U.S. personal savings as a share of nominal GDP will rise again in 1Q21, after reaching a post-war high at the end of 2020 on a 4-quarter moving average basis.


That is fairly signifcant. A post war high of US personal savings was not something most people would have picked.
The question is, will this keep going, or will US cits revert to the "norm".
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 2 2021, 07:53 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Yes.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2021, 03:22 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Mate of mine who has a C182 in Canberra, says it costs him 15,000 a year to keep it at Canberra Airport.
For him its a tax deduction, so it eases the pain a little, but for someone just doing private/recreational ops it would not be feasible.
The next nearest airports are Tumut and Goulburn, hardly just around the corner.
But most airports eventually go the same.
I used to fly into Cairns every couple of years or so, but about 10 years ago the costs went astronomically high.
I then switched to landing and parking at Mareeba and getting a hire car from there.
Last time I was at Mareeba, virtually the entire GA fleet from Cairns had shifted to Mareeba, and the council got funds from the Regional Airports boondoggle n(may have been run by Bidget Mac, not sure). New Taxiways, larger parking and tiedown areas, bigger terminals, clean toilets etc.
Thriving hub of GA at the time. Not sure how its faring now.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2021, 01:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

And in a surprise outcome of COVID that nobody saw coming.
From The Australian Business review

QUOTE
COVID-19 has rearranged Aus­tralia’s aviation landscape in a way no airline could have imagined, with regional centres being courted by carriers seeking new revenue streams.

As capital city gateways continue to struggle in the face of state and international border closures, airports at Orange, Ballina ­and Sunshine Coast have returned to or exceeded pre-COVID passenger numbers.

Sunshine Coast Airport went into COVID with two domestic routes to Sydney and Melbourne but has increased that to seven, with the addition of Adelaide, Canberra, Cairns, Emerald and Newcastle.
Airport chief executive Andrew Brodie said it was a staggering turnaround after having no flights at all for several months last year. “It’s quite amazing. The airlines are definitely thinking differently and for the first time we’re getting Qantas main line from Melbourne in the morning and afternoon,” Mr Brodie said.

“It gives people the opportunity to do business and come back at the end of the day.”

In the case of Ballina Byron Airport, new connections to Canberra and Dubbo plus added ­capacity out of Sydney and Melbourne saw passenger numbers exceed pre-COVID figures between November and January.

The airport also benefited from state border closures, with northern NSW residents who would have normally used Gold Coast or Brisbane Airports flying out of Ballina instead.

“Since the return of capital city services, Ballina has witnessed strong demand for air services to this region as an attractive coastal destination,” said airport chief executive Julie Stewart. “We can expect that with the permanent easing of border restrictions, passenger growth will continue but at a more measured rate.”

Orange was another regional centre reaping the benefits of the “COVID effect”, with the local council extending the airport carpark to help meet demand.

Deputy mayor Sam Romano, chairman of the Orange Airport community committee, said the “whole game had changed” as a result of the pandemic.
“The city has gone gangbusters and the airlines have a lot to do with that. I’m very grateful we’ve got Link Airways and Qantas flights every day to Brisbane, and two or three days to Melbourne,” Mr Romano said.

“These airlines aren’t here just because Orange is a nice place — they’re making money, the business is here.”

Coffs Harbour Airport was also in line for a boom, with an extra 200,000 airline seats scheduled to operate into the town this year on flights from Melbourne, K Brisbane and Sydney.

Qantas Group chief Alan Joyce said the airline was adding regional routes and increasing cap­acity in response to demand.

Since COVID struck, the carrier had announced 26 new routes, and Mr Joyce said all were generating a positive cash flow.

“We’ve had Sydney-Ballina double in size from where it was pre-COVID, and new routes from Canberra to Maroochydore and Canberra to Cairns booming as well. People are going where they see borders are open and they can travel.”

Regional Express airlines (Rex), which will launch its first Sydney-Melbourne services on Monday, is also adding the Gold Coast to its network.

From March 29, Rex will operate two return flights a day between Melbourne and the Gold Coast, and will do the same from Sydney as of April 1.

Not to be left out, Virgin Australia has partnered with Alliance Aviation to operate an expanded regional network, with Tamworth, Mildura and Port Macquarie in its sights.

The carrier, which emerged from administration late last year, currently flies to 28 regional destin­ations in addition to ­Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.


The big question is, is this a transient thing or the way of the future.

I sit on an advisory committee for our local airport (which by the way does not (yet) have any RPT services), and we have been grappling for some time with short medium and long term strategy plans. Most of the short and medium strategy plans have gone out the window, and even the long term (as in 25 years out ) , are looking decidedly obsolete.
Kinda hard to plan when the ground rules are so shaky.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2021, 11:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

MKR had some good drill results out that further extends the MT Boppy resource area.
Another bit added to the value.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2021, 10:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

ASM in trading halt, have no idea why.
Half yearly came out today, and I couldn't see anything that was out of the ordinary for this stock.
I would expect a bit of a capital rating some time in the future, as they have about 15 mill in cash, about another 18 months based on the first six months of trading.
A few buyers have popped high bids in, so perhaps those who are in the know or think they are in the know, have got in early.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2021, 09:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Had the rest of of my ZIM taken out at 18 this morning.
Didn't think it would reach hat for weeks.
But I will take the profit.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2021, 09:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

QUOTE
This time its different.

One of the great untruths of the world, along with the following
"I'm from the government, I am here to help you"
"of course I will still respect you in the morning"
"The cheque's in the mail"
"Only while stocks last".
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Mar 1 2021, 08:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Yikes, this issue has become mainstream.
Even Our ABC is reporting on it.
And they don't hold back on the genius that runs the RBA either.
QUOTE
In the past fortnight, and especially last week, global money markets have cratered and interest rates have soared. For many, it's a shrug-your-shoulders incident, an obscure and esoteric event that has little bearing on everyday life.

What has just occurred could have a profound impact on our future. It has the potential to delay and possibly derail the economic recovery now underway across the developed world. And, if it continues, it will wreak havoc with global stock markets during the next few months.

It also is a direct assault on the power and authority of central banks, including our own Reserve Bank. For the past year, across the globe, they've acted in unison, throwing everything at their disposal at an unseen enemy in a desperate effort to stave off the most serious economic collapse in more than a century.

Suddenly, they've been left bruised and bloodied, run down by a growing mob that has flagrantly ignored their predictions and overturned their view of the world and our future.Central bankers like America's Jerome Powell, our very own Philip Lowe and their counterparts from Japan, Europe, Canada and the UK have for the past month been on message.
nterest rates would not rise for years, they've decreed in unison. The economy is in the early stage of recovery but we have a long way to go.

But money market traders, who buy and sell the $US90 trillion odd worth of government debt swirling around on global markets, decided they were wrong. All of them.

As new US President Joe Biden finalised his plan to splash around $US1.9 trillion on a stimulus package — the biggest on record — the market decided that all this stimulus, both monetary and fiscal, could only lead to one thing; inflation.

And that meant central banks would have to abandon their ultra-loose interest rate policies earlier than expected. The trickle of selling on bond markets suddenly swelled. By late last week, it was a tsunami. Bond prices collapsed forcing the yields — market interest rates — to soar.

Last November, if you bought an Australian government 10-year bond (essentially a government IOU) on the open market, you'd have been lucky to get an interest rate of 0.8 per cent.

A fortnight ago, you could get a touch above 1.2 per cent. By Friday, it was just shy of 2 per cent. To put that into perspective, that's the equivalent of almost five official RBA interest rate hikes in four months, with two and a bit just last week.

You'd expect rates to move higher as the economy recovered. But it was the speed and the severity of the movements, the likes of which haven't occurred for decades, that stunned onlookers.

If sustained, it will lead to higher borrowing costs because banks will have no option but to pass those rate hikes on. And should Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg need to raise more debt, to extend JobKeeper for instance, he'll suddenly be confronted with a much higher bill.

Then there are the follow-on effects. Stock markets hate higher interest rates. Suddenly, the boom that has been underway ever since central banks cut rates to zero last year has been knocked sideways.

The article is one of the better explanations for the problem, and for once, somebody at the Our ABC has a better than basic understanding of macro economics.
So, to be on the safe side and protect my capital, I will be returning to 75/25 bias towards cash.
Those stocks I do own will be mostly commodity driven (especially gold).
What this will do in the medium to long term is always open to debate.
Powell, Yellen and the other crims that run the US economy will wait too long to raise rates, as (a) it would admit defeat and the acknowledgement of failure (b) because it will give them time to back out of the stock market they artificially inflated, thus preserving their own wealth.
AUD will go up, as RBA, despite their denials will be one of the first to raise rates, and we will return to that interest rate differential that supported the AUD for so long. AUD will also be supported by the commodity increases that we have already seen, especially for foodstuffs. Putin putting an export tax on wheat to keep the price down in Russia has already caused wheat prices to soar on the back of an excellent harvest in OZ this year. As the inevitable push to more and more EV's, prices for copper, Zinc, silver, Cobolt, Lithium are only going to increase, further strengthening the AUD.
Of course, there is every possibility I may be completely wrong (again).
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2021, 09:29 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Further to yesterday Post on bond yields, Wall street on Parade highlights just what happens when the bubble starts to deflate.

QUOTE
The action in the U.S. Treasury market yesterday reminded us of the classic “I Love Lucy” episode at the chocolate factory. As the conveyor belt churns out chocolate balls faster than Lucy and Ethel can handle them, they resort to stuffing them in their mouths, their hats, and their shirts. Lucy remarks: “I think we’re fighting a losing game.” (See video clip below.)

That was the scene in the Treasury market yesterday – too much supply and no where to stuff it, causing a sharp spike in yields which set off a stock market selloff that left the Dow down 559.8 points or 1.75 percent on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fared far worse, losing 478.5 points or 3.52 percent.

That the Treasury market is now projectile vomiting T-notes should come as a surprise to no one. As the chart above indicates, yields on the 10-year note have been rising sharply since early August, with the yield more than tripling from 0.50 percent to an intraday spike yesterday of 1.61 percent. The 10-year note opened this morning at 1.52 percent.

The sharp and persistent rise in yields have left those who bought the T-notes at dramatically lower yields licking their wounds from heavy losses. (Prices of notes and bonds move inversely to their yields.) That has also dramatically lessened the appetite to buy more Treasuries at the current yields when the supply is expected to continue to increase as a result of rising government deficits and stimulus spending.

Another catalyst for yesterday’s selloff in Treasuries was a very sloppy Treasury auction where the government attempted to stuff $62 billion of a 7-year Treasury note into an already over-supplied market.


That in itself is not a good sign, but then on top of the over supply

QUOTE
The spike in yields comes despite the fact that the Federal Reserve itself has been buying $80 billion each month in various maturities of Treasury notes and bonds. That started in June of last year. As of this past Wednesday, the Fed owned $4.8 trillion of Treasury securities, part of that resulting from its purchases of Treasuries (QE programs) after the 2008 Wall Street crash.

In an additional effort to hold overall interest rates down, the Fed is also buying $40 billion each month in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). It owns $2.18 trillion of those, much of that also resulting from the aftermath of the 2008 crash.

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has also directed the New York Fed’s trading desk “to increase holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS by additional amounts and purchase agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as needed to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities.”

Aside from the Fed, the other big domestic buyers of Treasury securities are the mega Wall Street banks. These banks are known as “Primary Dealers” and are contractually bound to have to buy at Treasury auctions.
On top of the problem of a supply glut is the fact that these mega banks/Primary Dealers have been allowed to gobble up other banks over the years, leading to a dramatic decline in the number of Primary Dealers available to bid at Treasury auctions. In 1988 there were 46 primary dealers. By 1999, there were only 30. Today, there are just 24.


So, if as seems highly likely that the US treasury is going to have to create somewhere in excess of 1.9 trillion more bonds to pay for the Biden administration's covid stimulus package, things are not going to get better any time soon.
Welcome to NMT.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 27 2021, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Plastic, why not go full conspiracy and make the pertinent point that images of various people with needles close to or in the arm means nothing.
For all we know they could be getting injections of saline solution.
Mick the master conspiracist.
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2021, 08:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
Three weeks after Australia's central bank announced on Feb 1 an extension to its QE program by a further A$100 billion (when it also said it doesn’t expect to increase interest rates until 2024) in the pursuit of the central bank's yield curve control - as a reminder Governor Philip Lowe had previously set the three-year yield target at 0.10% - overnight the RBA purchased a whopping (for Australia) $3BN in three-year government bonds in the secondary market on Thursday – triple the amount it bought on Monday and the most since the bond market turbulence during the COVID-19 panic last March.And all in the name of preserving the RBA's credibility and keeping the 3Y yield around 0.10%.

Unfortunately, it increasingly appears that the RBA's Yield Curve Control is failing as the market is pressuring the central bank's commitment to the point of failure. When the RBA announced to the market at 11:15am on Thursday that it would purchase $3 billion of three-year bonds, the yield on the April 2024 bond declined slightly from 0.13 per cent to 0.125 per cent. But yields soon after jumped as high as 0.14 per cent, before settling back at 0.13 per cent.

According to ANZ economist David Plank, the RBA had been “unsuccessful” in dampening bond yields at the short and long end of the curve and the RBNZ’s move had made the RBA’s task more difficult. “There is upward pressure on market interest rates and that will flow through into quite a bit more expensive borrowing rates for states and corporates for 10-year money compared to the start of the year” (mortgage rates are not priced off the long-term, 10-year bond yields).

Similar to his Fed peers, RBA governor Philip Lowe has said he doesn’t expect the cash rate to rise until at least 2024, but his guidance is being challenged by bond traders who are observing the scorching inflation everywhere and are convinced it is only a matter of time before Australia yields.

As shown below, the yield on the three-year government bond remained stubbornly elevated at 0.13%, 3 basis points above the RBA’s 0.10 per cent target.But the biggest shock, according to Bill Bovingdon, ALTIUS Asset Management’s chief investment officer, is that the market “barely moved on what should have been a pretty positive surprise."

“I think they might need to intervene at the longer-end with more QE because otherwise this will have unhelpful spillover effects in the currency and start to impact on things like property trusts and a broader contagion into equities.”

Australia's 10-year borrowing cost has jumped to 1.72% – a doubling of the yield since the RBA officially unveiled its QE program last November. ANZ’s Plank said the rise in global long-term yields was a “good news story” about the success of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.

“But there has been a lift in Aussie rates quite a bit higher than US yields and that means that there will be more buying of Australian bonds and push up the Australian dollar.” As a result, “The market is confused about the RBA’s messaging.”

The Australian 10-year yield has jumped 0.31 of a percentage point (31 basis points) about the equivalent US Treasury rate, higher than the gap of 0.16 of a percentage point (16 basis points) when deputy governor Guy Debelle began signalling last September that QE was coming. Then, soon after officially announcing an initial $100 billion QE program in November, the Australian long-term bond yield fell 0.07 of a percentage point (7 basis points) below the US Treasury.

A big reason for the lift higher in yields is surging commodity costs: iron ore prices have surged to above $US175 a tonne - the highest level in a decade which has contributed to upward pressure on the local exchange rate.

Meanwhile, with virtually all RBA ammo used, the Australian dollar is on the cusp of breaking above US80¢, despite renewed ultra-easy monetary policy commitments by all central banks. This is becoming a major headache for export-heavy Australia.

And as it watches its policy have less and less impact, the RBA now owns $18.5 billion of the $33 billion April 2024 bond. The market is pricing in a jump in rates, with the yield on the November 2024 bond blowing out to 0.36 of a percentage point (36 basis points).

A market participant quoted by Financial Review, said there was not huge selling of local government bonds in recent days, but there was not a lot of buying. When there is less demand for bonds, bond prices fall and yields rise.

Ultimately, there is just one "solution" - the RBA will have to step in and buy much more bonds... which incidentally is how the surge in US Treasury yields will also end, with the Fed capitulating and realizing it too has to join the rest of the world in (at least trying to) control the entire yield curve. At that point, capital markets will officially die.


What is not unusual is that the RBA govenor has no more clue than the rest of us, he just gets paid more and gets more attention.
What is most unusual about this is that for once, OZ is leading the US.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2021, 12:27 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Powered thru 16 bucks to $17,50, up 15% today.
Almost zero sellers, seems everyone is hanging on for bigger gains.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2021, 12:24 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

All of my goldies opened at low prices almost down to the early March covid dips.
I had a number of lowball bids in, but only one of them, for RMS, was filled.
Since this mornings open, there has been a massive turn around.
Gold and silver prices barely moved in that time, yet there have been intraday swings of 5 and 15 %.
Not sure what is going on apart from the usual manipulation, will have to wait and see what happens in US markets tonite.
Micik

  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2021, 09:18 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I find it laughable that in times of inflation, Gold gets crunched.
Bonds can be created out of thin air, there is no limit as to how many can be issued, presuming there is someone willing to buy at the price offered,
Gold on the other hand, gets more and more difficult every year to extract.
The people who distrust the west (and there are a lot of em!), would prefer to hold hard assets and commodities rather than govt or private bonds.
And these institutions are not trading.
The bull shit COT reports that come out every week are prime examples of the corruption of the western (mainly American/UK) financial systems.
If we can believe what the likes of JPM. Ctibank and Goldman Sachs say in relation to there always being a couneterparty to their paper trading in commodities(particularly gold and silver), then there can only be one culprit, and thats the Central Banks of the West. The refusal of the UK authorities to release gold bullion owned by Venezuela because "the Venezuelan government was illegitimate" is another prime example. Hypocrisy at its finest.
Russia, China, have both been increasing their holdings of gold. let the holders of worthless fiat money backed bonds play their games, but it will all end in tears.
Mick (just getting down off the high horse, its a big drop).
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2021, 08:37 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

ALK half yearly out.
Lots of increases from June EOY.
Production up 90%.Sales up 91%.
Profit after tax up 117%.
A chunk of profit was due to the demerger of ASM, which in itself was a big bonus for shareholders of ALK.
Like all gold producers of late, it has taken a fair hit.
Will still keep holding, waiting for the next gold run.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 26 2021, 07:05 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

All over in two days.
Shortest test since the uncovered pitches days of 1935.
One player from either side managed to get past 50.
Of the thirty wickets to fall, only 2 came from fast bowlers.
Joe Root and Jack Leach opened the bowling in the last innings. (not something I expected to see!).
Indians who won naturally thought the pitch was fine, the Poms naturally think otherwise.
Bet the cateres are pissed off.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2021, 08:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Crikey, must be an absolute minefield!.
India have lost 5/27!.
Jack lEach now four wickets, but the star is Joe Root, 3 overs, 3 maidens, 3 wickets!
Weird as.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2021, 04:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Poms faring about as well as OZ boys.
All out for 112.
India 3/99 only 13 behind.
The really interesting thing is the english team selection.
In the spin friendly subcontinent, they picked Anderson, Broad Archer and Stokes as their fast bowling attack, with the lone spinner Jack Leach.
In the English first Innings, the two off spinners took nine wickets between them.
So far, Leach has taken two of the three wickets.
In the first test, Englands two spinners took 11 out of twenty wickets, and Indian spinners took 13 out of twenty.
In the second test, Englands spinners took 15 out of twenty wickets, Indian spinners took 17 out of twenty.
What were they thinking dropping a spinner in favour of a fast bowler?
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 25 2021, 02:16 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

A dearth of sellers has sent ZMP to 52 week high.
Profit so far 22%, so will sell half if it hits 16 buks.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 24 2021, 01:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

How Corrupt is Wall Street?
About as corrupt as you can get.
From Wall Street on Parade
QUOTE
Better Markets and Public Citizen, two of the most informed Wall Street watchdogs, provided written testimony for last Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the structure of Wall Street. And, to put it mildly, their assessment of the state of affairs on Wall Street does not align with what hedge fund titan Ken Griffin of Citadel told lawmakers at the same hearing. Griffin testified, under oath mind you, that: “The U.S. capital markets are the envy of the world. Our nation’s ability to allocate capital to its best and highest use cr­­­­­eates jobs, drives innovation and fuels our economy.”

In reality, foreign regulators have repeatedly filed enforcement actions against the largest banks on Wall Street for engaging in fraud and rigging markets. As for allocating capital “to its best and highest use,” Better Markets describes the prospects for GameStop, one of the hot meme stocks today, as follows:

“A rudimentary review of GameStop’s financial and business prospects (before the meteoric rise of the stock price) would have yielded the following unmistakable conclusions: GameStop was bleeding revenue in 2019 and 2020; it was closing stores with little to no prospects of re-opening them (even before the COVID-19 pandemic kept people away from shopping malls where many of GameStop’s stores are located); and its most basic business—that of selling and renting hard-disk video games—was under threat from the new generation video game consoles that were no longer equipped with hard-disk readers and instead required gamers to digitally download or stream the games. Yet, none of this prevented millions of investors who were hyped, misled, or manipulated into pouring their hard-earned money into GameStop and similar stocks. And none of this seems to have mattered to Robinhood (and others) who peddled, facilitated, and enabled leveraged and margin investing that some now believe has become so widespread as to have systemic risk implications.”

Better Markets goes on to explain that only the particular context for last Thursday’s hearing is new, but the “trading practices, and obvious vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system are not.” Better Markets points out the following areas where ongoing abuses are occurring:

“Market participants at the center of these events have for years taken advantage of market fragmentation, order routing schemes, questionable execution practices, and leveraged trading strategies. And even in the current saga, there are reports that some sophisticated participants made hundreds of millions of dollars momentum trading (exacerbating volatility both as the price went up and as it crashed). And yet, for years, the financial regulators have failed to fully and properly examine, much less remedy and responsibly limit, these questionable if not abusive, predatory or illegal practices.

“Furthermore, for years, a handful of Wall Street’s biggest banks have ‘danced while the music was playing.’ They have facilitated many of the trading practices at the center of the events and bent the rules of the markets to their advantage using their roles in the governance, operation, and resiliency of clearinghouses, exchanges and trading venues, data repositories, and more. Those banks also remain (a) the prime brokers for most sizable hedge funds, including those involved in the GameStop events; (b) the dominant derivatives dealers with 87.3% of U.S. derivatives exposures; and © significant lenders in various capacities, including as securities lenders.”

Public Citizen’s written testimony also challenged the idea that the structure of today’s markets are conducive to prudent capital allocation on Wall Street. Public Citizen made the following points on the issue of high-frequency trading:

“Most trading today is executed not by individuals making deliberate decisions about the value of a stock based on fundamental analysis of a firm’s prospects, but by computers programed with algorithms that detect patterns…

“Globally, high-frequency trading has been shown to increase costs for investors by $5 billion annually…

“Public Citizen has long called for a financial transaction tax that would bridle high frequency trading that otherwise acts as a tax on average investors without providing any of the societal benefits that would come from the government taxing trades. A financial transaction tax of just 0.1% (10 cents per $100 traded) would raise nearly $777 billion over 10 years that could be reinvested in American communities through increased funding for health care, education, infrastructure or other priorities.”

Both Better Markets and Public Citizen criticized the preposterously stalled rollout by the Securities and Exchange Commission of the Consolidated Audit Trail. Better Markets wrote as follows on the subject:

“The SEC must have access to timely, accurate, and complete information on trading activities across markets to effectively supervise and police markets as well as to consider policy improvements in light of trading activities, developments and anomalies, such as those we witnessed in recent weeks. This common sense proposition has been understood since at least the ‘Flash Crash’ in May 2010, after which the SEC commenced plans to create a consolidated audit trail (‘CAT’) on all trading-related activities in the securities markets. Once fully operationalized—with needed upgrades and appropriate oversight— the CAT will collect granular order, cancellation, modification, and trade execution information and enable the SEC and other regulators to reduce, manage, and better understand market disruptions, distortions, and crashes—including anomalous trading events like the GameStop frenzy—and identify, deter, and punish manipulative, disruptive, or other illegal trading activities.”

For our take on what’s holding up the CAT, see Technological Incompetence Appears to be Intentional at Wall Street’s Top Cop.

Both nonprofit watchdogs also criticized the ability of Wall Street to run its own private justice system called “mandatory arbitration” or “pre-dispute arbitration,” which effectively closes the nation’s courthouse doors to customers and employees. Better Markets wrote as follows:

“…it is well-established that arbitration is a biased forum that favors industry respondents and affords wronged investors very little meaningful relief. Moreover, it is highly secretive, providing neither the public nor regulators any insight into the nature of the claims being lodged or the manner in which they are resolved. And it lacks the procedural protections provided in court proceedings, including the right to appeal an erroneous decision or to even have a written decision stating the facts found and the basis for the decision. Accordingly, these recent events represent yet another occasion for examining the pressing need to ban or limit mandatory pre-dispute arbitration clauses in financial services agreements.”

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 23 2021, 06:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

AAARRRRGGGGGHHHH TELSTRA I HATEE YOU!!
Got a text message on my phone today from an unknown mobile number to say that one of the email mailboxes attached to my account had been compromised. Telstra had decided to suspend my account pending it being fixed by me linking to a non secure URL (as in using HTTP versus HTTPS) that just read HTTP://tel.st/reactivate.
Everything about it screamed scam, especially when I did a whois lookup on the URL to find it was a server serviced by a company in Singapore specialising in VPN. It was however owned by Telstra.
When I contacted the Telstra suggesting it was a scam, I got an email back from one of their cyber security folk who said it was actually legitimate.
Quelle Surprise!
So , after countless exhortations from so many people warning them not to click on URL links from unidentified sources to "fix" their broken accounts, this is exactly what telstra did.
I have had a very entertaining email exchange with the Telstra cyber security employee about the rather poor methodology, but he is probably just an underling.
In the end I spent about 45 minutes on the phone to a Filipino lady trying to get things sorted. We will have to wait and see if there are any further "compromised" accounts.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 23 2021, 10:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Four years ago, Wall street on Parade wrote the following
QUOTE
When we created the website for Wall Street On Parade, it took us about 30 minutes to add a free plug-in function so that our readers could search the text of every article we have ever written. (See Search box in upper right-hand corner of our menu at the top of this website.) But at Wall Street’s top cop, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), if one wants to search corporate filings, one is limited to a four-year text search. This bizarre restriction inhibits investigative journalists from capably doing their job and connecting dots.

This might sound like a small complaint were it not part of a larger pattern of technological failures by the SEC which have allowed Wall Street firms to run amok for decades.

The biggest technological failure, of course, is the SEC’s inability to launch a Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) over the 83 years of the SEC’s existence in order to spot manipulative or illegal trades by some of the most highly sophisticated trading houses in the world. While JPMorgan brags about having “more software developers than Google, and more technologists than Microsoft,” and Goldman Sachs is hiring the best Russian coders, Wall Street’s top cop is still driving a horse and buggy.

The CAT, if it is ever implemented, would show every trade in U.S. stock and option markets, including when it occurred and at what firm it originated. But don’t hold your breath.

Adding to the evidence that the SEC is technologically incompetent by design is what its own attorneys have said about its seemingly intentional failure to prosecute.

James Kidney retired from the SEC in 2014 following a quarter century as a trial lawyer there. He delivered a blistering speech at his retirement party on how SEC leadership functions. Not long thereafter, American Lawyer published excerpts from 2,000 pages of documents it had obtained from the SEC under a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, which indicated that Kidney had pushed the SEC to investigate up the chain of command in the Goldman Sachs Abacus 2007-AC1 investment scam. (Goldman Sachs had allowed a hedge fund, John Paulson & Co., to bet against the Abacus deal despite knowing that Paulson had helped to select investments in the deal that were likely to fail. Goldman then recommended Abacus to its own clients without disclosing this information.) The SEC only went after a mid-level employee in the matter, Fabrice Tourre, while settling with Goldman Sachs for $550 million.

In the documents obtained by American Lawyer, Kidney is quoted as stating that “This was not a case where there was only one low-level vice president involved.”

In April of 2014, Kidney spoke with NPR on the demoralization of public servants at the SEC. Kidney said: “Washington has become — and I think everybody knows it — a bathtub full of cash. As long as you just go in the bathtub you’re going to come out with cash stuck on you – if you’re at least a certain, have certain jobs and have certain roles. And that’s why the revolving door is such a problem. It’s cultural, it’s the culture of Washington, it’s the culture of Wall Street and it hollows out the civil service…”

Before Kidney, there was SEC attorney Darcy Flynn. In 2011, Flynn had explained to Congressional investigators and the SEC Inspector General that for at least 18 years, the SEC had been shredding documents and emails related to its investigations — documents that it was required under law to keep. Flynn told investigators that by purging these files, it impaired the SEC’s ability to see the connections between related frauds.

The SEC knows that since the late 1920s, the biggest Wall Street firms have been engaging in collusion and cartel activity with each other. What possible honorable motive would there be for shredding the history of these crimes? In fact, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has taken just the opposite position. It has archived on its website known as Fraser the thousands of pages of hearing transcripts and exhibits from Wall Street’s prior crime of the century, the collusive corruption that led to the 1929 crash and the Great Depression.

Before Darcy Flynn there was Gary Aguirre, also a former SEC attorney. On June 28, 2006, Aguirre testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary. Aguirre explained that during his final days at the SEC, he had pushed to serve a subpoena on John Mack, the powerful former official at Morgan Stanley, to take testimony about his potential involvement in insider trading. Mack was protected; Aguirre was fired via a phone call while on vacation — just three days after Aguirre had contacted the Office of Special Counsel to discuss the filing of a complaint about the SEC’s protection of Mack.


So four years later, we still have no CAT, the Wall street firms are still screwing everyone and everything, and still the regulators drag their collective feet. And we still have the toxic bipartisan useless political class baying for each others throats while 75% of their constituents wallow in comparative poverty. Bring on the revolution.

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 23 2021, 10:36 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

AUD hit and Intraday high of 79.35.
Off a bit now, but still holding above 79.
A bit more of this and it will start to have an impact on the exporting revenues.
On the other hand, it will help to keep the lid on some of the items that contribute to the basket that makes up the CPI.
AUD may be seen as one of the currencies with the least amount of QE, sort of lesser of all evils type of thing.
Mick


  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 23 2021, 09:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

A little while ago i wrote about the potential of various authorities deciding that digital currencies were likely to be become regulated, and thus ripe for manipulation by the wealthy.
From KITCO
QUOTE
Could increased scrutiny from the U.S. officials trigger even a bigger selloff?

Recently, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been speaking about the importance of bitcoin regulation while focusing on illicit financing risks. Yellen has also been referring to bitcoin as a very volatile and "highly speculative asset."

"I think it's important to make sure that it is not used as a vehicle for illicit transactions and that there's investor protection. And so regulating institutions that deal in bitcoin, making sure that they adhere to their regulatory responsibilities, I think is certainly important," Yellen told CNBC last week.

Earlier in February, Yellen told the Treasury's innovation policy roundtable that the "misuse" of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin is "a growing problem."

"I see the promise of these new technologies, but I also see the reality: cryptocurrencies have been used to launder the profits of online drug traffickers; they've been a tool to finance terrorism," she said.


This sounds suspiciously like the groundwork being laid for some sort of interference by regulators into what is really the only truly free market investment area left.
Don't say you were not warned.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 23 2021, 08:19 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

RMS produced another pretty good Half yearly.
Gold production up 57%
AISC up by a miserly 2%
NPAT up 297%
Cash and gold up 32%.
EPS up 223%
Higher gold sales on higher gold price and reduction of hedgbook.
Penny project looks nicely profitable after Feasability study.
More than happy to buy more at that rate.
Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2021, 02:05 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Bought back into DCN at .37 today Triage, the announcements of drilling results today and the decline in all gold stocks was enough to take a punt.
May fall further, but thats ok, I will buy more if it does.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 19 2021, 08:02 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Flattery will get you nowhere.
Why not just answer one of the questions I posed.
Theres more chance of Apple taking over Merck than CSL doing so.
This sub topic would have been more appropriate in "plastics Conspiracy Theories"..
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2021, 06:56 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Not a bad bowling attack from NSW, all five of their bowlers have played test cricket, some more than others.
Lyon was the main instigator of the sudden collapse. Vics lost 8/48, with Lyon taking 6/21.
This on the same ground where he took 2/201 against India.
Perhaps the Vics are not as good as the Indians.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2021, 05:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

So, what are number 7 and no 32 from most popular google searches in the world.
No 7 Is how to delete an Instagram account.
No 32 is How to delete a Facebook account.

reckon No 32 will be pretty high on the OZ list.

It is most unfortunate that I deleted my FB about 7 years ago, other wise today I would have had great delight in telling that little shit Zuckerberg to shove it, just prior to deleting my account.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2021, 04:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

QUOTE
Merck looks wounded by Covid. Could be a takeover target for CSL.

But why would they bother?
What are the synergies?
What part of the CSL business will it bolster?

Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2021, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Don't know why RMS is being hammered by the market.
Since the 2.50 highs in September when the gold price was AUD2750, its share price has fallen to 1.29 today, near enough to half what it was.
The gold price today is AUD2300, a 16% fall, so some of the price action can be explained.
If the market thought that gold was going into continue its fall, you would expect all the gold miners to have fall by similar amounts.
Most of them have fallen, but to the 50 percentile mark that RMS has done.
Something is going on, so will hold back on buying more, but will be in like flint if it does get to a buck.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2021, 09:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Half yearly out, makes reasonable reading under the covid circumstances.
Most important, Div's reduced a bit due to the increase in AUDvUSD, but that was always on the cards.
Market seems to like it, up another 3% post announcement.
mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 18 2021, 08:40 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Gammastop has an article Here
Going through the timeline of the recent short squeeze on GME.
Some of it is speculating, but seemingly well researched speculating, and it does not take sides.
It is too long with too many relevant images that sharescene will not me to paste, so if anyone is interested in a well researched timeline, this is a good starting point.
Its important to remember however, that Gammastop themselves are part of the big elite players to seek to extract some money from customers, so keep that in mind.
One of the truisms is that this sort of gamma squeese is not the first occurrence, and you can guarantee it won't be the last.
mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 03:33 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Finally found a non political Trump Joke.

President Trump was walking outside on the Lawn heading for his Limo, when gunman steps out and takes aim.
One of the secret service agents seem and screams "Mickey mouse".
The gunmen is so startled that he fumbles the gun and drops it by which time he is jumped on by other agents and hauled away for interrogation.
Later his superiors were going through what happened , and they asked the agent " What on earth possessed you yell out Mickey Mouse?"
The secret service agent in question blushed, and admitted that he had got confused and actually meant to shout "Donald, Duck".

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 02:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The market has decided that the mid year was just poor, and it has tanked.
Cut my losses and got out, the dividend won't help much given the fall.
Moving on.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 02:34 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

In another sign that the rich are getting richer while everyone else is being screwed, it seems that the use of private/corprate jets has soared during the pandemic.
From Bloombergs
QUOTE
A rebound in the luxury-jet market is gaining steam as more well-heeled customers turn to private flying because of the coronavirus pandemic, said the bankers who cater to buyers of business aircraft.

A pick up in demand for used planes in the second half of 2020 is carrying over into this year, powered in part by first-time purchasers, said executives from Credit Suisse Group AG, BNP Paribas SA and other lenders. New gains are likely later this year as vaccination efforts spur corporate demand, bolstering the outlook for an industry that was bracing for the worst less than a year ago.

“Looking back we had a very good year and much, much better than expected,” Werner Slavik, chief of aviation for the equipment-finance unit of Societe Generale SA, said at a virtual Corporate Jet Investor conference last week. “We saw, especially in the smaller jet market, quite strong demand.”

Travel restrictions have reduced the need for larger jets that can cross oceans. Meanwhile, an uptick of first-time purchasers ventured into private-aircraft ownership at the lower end of the market, which is where they usually start, the bankers said. Leisure trips are driving demand in the pandemic, as more of the world’s wealthy travelers opt for private flights instead of premium seating on jetliners.

QUOTE
JetHQ, which brokers aircraft sales and has its U.S. headquarters in Kansas City, Missouri, was “cranking out” deals in the fourth quarter, said Rebecca Johnson, president of the broker’s operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The momentum has carried forward into this year, with the U.S. driving most of the sales.

“We have a lot of first-time buyers,” Johnson said. “Covid has just seemed to drive most people over the edge.”

I really loved this last bit, the US economy is tanking, its effectively in Civil war, but the biggest problem for some is getting to their holiday house without having to come into contact with the great unwashed.
And think of the greenhouse gasses they will be spewing out while doing so.

QUOTE
For now, buyers are mostly motivated by leisure travel rather than business trips. That will change as countries open up, said Robert Gates, chief of international sales for Global Jet Capital Inc. Commercial airlines are expected to take years to rebound to the number of pre-Covid flights and the well-heeled aren’t willing to wait.

“You can’t go on vacation on Zoom,” Gates said. “You need to get to your vacation house some way.”

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 01:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

For anyone who invested in the Nikkei index in early 1981, they would be more than a little dissapointed that it has taken 30 years to return o those same heady heights. Thats no return for 30 years!
From Sovereign man
QUOTE
Property in Tokyo became more expensive than comparable property in London or New York. And within a few years, Japanese real estate was worth five times more than all the property in the United States combined.

Meanwhile, the Japanese stock market went through the roof, with the Nikkei reaching an all-time high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989– more than 5x higher than it was at the beginning of the decade.

But eventually the Japanese central bank grew concerned about the rising debt levels, inflation, and the multiple negative effects that cheap interest rates were having on the economy.

So they slowly began to increase rates.

The stock market dropped almost immediately in response to higher rates.

By October 1990, the market had fallen by nearly half. And then it essentially stagnated for twenty years, finally hitting rock bottom in 2011 when the Nikkei index fell to a level it hadn’t seen since 1982.

In other words, Japanese investors who bought stocks in 1982 and held for 29 years would have realized ZERO return on investment.

Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the Japanese government tried desperately to reinflate the bubble. They slashed rates, provided direct subsidies to business, created tax incentives… but nothing worked.

Finally, literally today, the Nikkei stock index cross a major milestone– 30,000. This is a level that it had not seen since the bubble started to burst in 1990.

Long time to wait for a return
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 08:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Half yearly out, not as good as I would have expected.
Growth in OZ sales, but export earnings "uncertain".
EPS down 25%
Profit after tax down 20%
Warning that 2nd half fin year 2021 will be below 2020, does not inspire great confidence.
The good bits, debt reduced to only 3.5 million, small change in this market.
Higher than expected dividend of 3.5 cents fullly franked, gives a gross dividend yield over 10%.
I'll take that.
Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 08:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Half yearly looks good,
Net profit up 55%
Net cash boomed to 419 mill (from 190 mill last quarter).
Debt reduced to 525 mill , so net debt down to 86 mill.
7 CPS dividend giving 5% gross yield.
And a 49% increase in ore reserves.
And I'll take that too.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 08:32 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Half yearly looks good,
Net profit up 55%
Net cash boomed to 419 mill (from 190 mill last quarter).
Debt reduced to 525 mill , so net debt down to 86 mill.
7 CPS dividend giving 5% gross yield.
And I'll take that too.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 17 2021, 08:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

SBM half yearly out, slightly up net profit after tax, production improved, 4 cps dividend fully franked giving div yield of 5%.
Cash on hand now higher than outstanding debt.
Not bad, i'll take that.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 16 2021, 01:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

AUD now at 78 cents vs USD.
Who would have guessed that when it hit 70 back in November, with China making it obvious it was going to punish Oz for its intransigence.
Or even March 2020, not yet a year ago when its intraday low was 55.20.
This was the nadir of the COVID panic.
Given that not a lot has changed in terms of OZ, its kinda surprising that it has gobne this far, though perhaps its more of a case of the USD performing poorly.
Will probably keep slowly rising until the next disaster hits and/or sentiment changes.
Fundamentals went out the window long ago.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 16 2021, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I second the thanks, bought a few to put away in the draw.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 16 2021, 09:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

ALK drilling results has increased the inferred resources at Tolmingly with further returns at depth suggesting the lode may continue for some distance yet.
Good long term prospects for life of mine.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 16 2021, 09:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Back into ZIM for the platinum, Rhodium and iridium (all up and in big demand).
Not exactly a liquid stock, but having a small go anyway.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 16 2021, 08:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

About the only thing that seems to generate little argument over the Covid pandemic is the fact that the biggest threat to Oz is the entry of travellers from overseas, particularly from countries where the virus has gone on unchecked, or where the new strains of the disease have become more virulent.
We have also heard from countless people about how the Oz government is not trating its own citizens well by not allowing for their safe and swift return to our beloved shores.
Yes, there are logistical difficulties over getting flights, managing quarantine, contact tracing etc, but it would be good to get as many of our citizens back here as quickly as possible.
Imagine my surprise then when I read in The Australian
QUOTE
Foreign nationals have made up almost one-third of Australia’s international arrivals since March last year, with more than 73,000 citizens of other countries and transit visa holders arriving since the hotel quarantine regime was introduced.

Australian Border Force data shows more than 253,000 citizens, residents and visa holders have travelled to Australia by air and sea since the hotel quarantine system was set up on March 28.

In total, more than 461,000 Australians have returned home since Scott Morrison first urged them to come back on March 13 and 41,000 Australians registered with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade are still waiting to return home from overseas.The Australian can also reveal Labor states have raised concerns that some foreign arrivals are not being properly vetted, as NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg on Monday hit back at Victorian leader Daniel Andrews’ criticism of the national hotel quarantine system.

The ABF figures show NSW continued to carry the burden of international arrivals since March 28, taking in nearly the same number as all other states and territories combined. Victoria had 35,666 international arrivals compared with NSW at almost 125,000.

Apart from a few actors and other celebrities, the biggest influx would have been for the open, with a few more form the Indian cricket entourage.
So what the hell were the rest of them doing coming here?
What was so important that we needed to bring in 70,000 foreigners in?
Governments obviously give them permission, so how about they explain why so many?
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 16 2021, 07:43 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Iridium prices have shot up these past 18 months as new industrial uses pop up.
At the end of 2018, the metal went for a tad over 900USD an ounce, somewhat less than gold.
Today at over USD$4,400 and ounce, its twice as expensive as gold.
Its a very rare metal, about 45 times less abundant than gold.
Iridium has had use often as a catalyst, being extremely reactive in salt form.
With the scaling up in Hydrogen production as a fuel source, iridium, which is used as a catalyst in newer processes, has become far more in demand
85% of Iridium comes out of Africa(the country not the film), often as a byproduct from platinum and palladium mining/refining.
We have already seen these two metals go for a runner, so anyone ming/producing the metals should make a buck or two.

So the question is, how do I invest in it??
Anglo American is right up there at the top of the list, but I have a big problem investing in these arrogant thieving bastards who have screwed South Africa and Zimbabwe for years.
Implats, also South African based is the next biggest.
Sibanye is no 3, Northam no4 are also South African.
Then theres the Russians with Norlisk.
Hardly a glowing endorsement for these metals, none of them get even close to model citizens.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 09:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

India heading for victory at stumps.
England 3 down already and still need another 429 runs.
Don't see how Stokes can work another miracle on this pitch.
Ashwin has six wickets so far in the match to go with his second innings century.
If he manages to get another 4 wickets , he will become the first Indian, and only the fifth player in all tests to get the 10 wicket/100 runs Double.
Was good of Australia to get him back in batting form after a lean couple of years.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 06:01 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Poms in deep deep trouble.
400 behind.
Batting last on the fourth and fifth days of a test in India has never been an easy task.
When you have to make the highest Innings of the match makes it just that little bit more difficult.
Kohli followed his 1st innings duck by scoring 62 and steering India to a position of virtual impregnability.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 03:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Hmmm, 420,000 quid.
I would be happy to get 10% of that (in pounds anyway).
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 02:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Wrong again, the 50 over stuff is happening before the shield.
Steven smith another century in the 50 over format as NSW makes 318.
Vics already 3 down and miles behind in the run rate.
Pat Cummins, 2/12 off 5 overs to go with his 49 runs.
Quality always rises to the top.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 02:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Baby Bunting up 10% today.
Unlike its namesake, been a quiet sleeper.
Up 200% since the the March Covid lows.
High PE, though reasonable grossed up yield of 4\ around 4%.
With so many Covid babies expected, they might get a baby boost.
Should have bought them when I first looked at them last year.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Sudden intraday switch in sentiment for gold stocks.
After being down for most of the day, a sudden 2% jump in virtually all the ones I have an interest in.
Could it be that the word has got out that the Plunge protection Team will be having a holiday?
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 11:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Sudden intraday switch in sentiment for gold stocks.
After being down for most of the day, a sudden 2% jump in virtually all the ones I have an interest in.
Could it be that the word has got out that the Plunge protection Team will be having a holiday?
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

They probably heard a rumour that the Reddit subgroup were going to target RBC.
Mick
  Forum: NZX

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 09:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

SVL comes out of trading halt after raising 30Mill to those ever present "sophisticated investors" at 13% discount to VWAP.
SP still holding at 25, which is a little surprising.
I have tried swapping my footy shorts and AC/DC black T-shirt for a dinner suit while investing, playing Mahler or Debussey in the background instead of John Lee Hooker, and swapped my Vic Bitter for Heineken special, but just can't seem to make the sophisticated set.
Maybe some advice from you sophisticates out there might help.
Probably now buggered up the great trading ranges this share has offered me over the years.
Oh, well, might shift to something else.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 08:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Well, I ended up buying the Charger.
It needs a bit of work after sitting in shed for 30 odd years, but has kept me occupied for the first two days of the Victorian lockdown.
Not a lot of body to fix, but the interior is pretty much trashed.
The real question is the engine and running gear.
Do I spend months and lots of money looking for a 1.7 litre turbo engine and disc brake running gear form a Porsche 914, or maybe larger engine from a 944?
Or do I trash the engine and turn it into an electric powered rocket?
There are a number of orgs (one in Brisbane) who do complete conversion swaps for beetles with all electrics from tesla.
The down side is that I would be giving money to Elon Musk, something that goes against the grain.
Either way is going to cost a fair bit of money, so will need to sharpen my trading skills for a while.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 15 2021, 07:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Poms now in more trouble than Tim Tyler.
All out 134, India 249 in front with 9 wickets in hand on a likely to be deteriorating wicket.
On the other hand, the Windies have won the second test by the narrow margin of 17 runs too take an historic 2-0 series win in Asia.
Bangladeshis almost got there, but there senior players let them down, left to much for the new boys.
Best news is, now we have finished the toy cricket, the proper games can get under way.
Sheffield Shield starts again today.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2021, 11:33 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

A couple of interesting issues on China popping up.
1. According to the South China Morning Post
QUOTE
Concerns over the outlook for China’s population have grown after the number of newborns recorded in the country’s household registration system declined 15 per cent during a coronavirus-hit 2020.
Last year, a total 10.035 million of newborns were recorded in the household registration system, known as hukou in China, down from 11.79 million in 2019, according to figures released by the Ministry of Public Security on Monday.
The figure is not China’s official birth rate for 2020 as the hukou system does not include the entire population, but adds to data released by some Chinese provinces for last year, which showed in some regions that birth rates declined more than 30 per cent in 2020 from a year earlier.
The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline after Chinese mothers gave birth to 14.65 million babies in 2019, which was the lowest level since 1961 and down from 15.23 million in 2018.

China already has a skewed demographic where it has more males than females, largely thanks to the one child policy introduced in 1979, and the two child policy in place for the decade prior to that. It already has 12.6% of its population over the age of 65, and with n expected lifespan of 77 years, that percentage will only get higher.
2. The Chinese economy has shown a distinct slowdown ahead of the Lunar New year. Some of this may have been expected due to factory closures, restrictions on travel in some areas due to Covid etc. But as Zero Hedge has pointed out (there are a lot of graphs associated with the article that I cannot post here due to sharescene restrictions )

QUOTE
Naturally, it was Beijing's prerogative to halt any local outbreak ahead of the Lunar New Year week which begins this Friday, and which would have made any containment during the peak travel period impossible.On the other hand, tightened travel controls will adversely affect nationwide economic activities around the LNY time.

And so, whether it is due to partial covid-linked lockdowns, due to China's ongoing attempts to contain and deleverage the country's massive debt load, or simply as a byproduct of China's credit impulse which as we discussed last December, is now rapidly shrinking, but most real-time indicators of China are showing a sharp slowdown across the economy which appears to be rolling over in everything from traffic and mass transit, to manufacturing even as prices of many goods (especially food) rose sharply, in what some may call a pre-stagflationary outcome
First, a look at traffic volumes, subway and migration which have clearly slowed down.
Perhaps the most interesting chart is one tracking the recent liquidity squeeze which sent overnight and 7-day repo rates soaring in late January, only to ease substantially after the PBOC resumed net OMO injections, which have been in line with recent years. Meanwhile, both government and corporate bond issuance have picked up in the days ahead of the LNY.
Putting the above data together, Nomura's China economist Ting Lu writes that "the latest Covid-19 wave should be brought under control in coming months, but at the cost of a slower services sector recovery and a pause in policy normalization." The bank lowered its 2021 real GDP growth forecast to 8.8% (from 9%), trimming Q1, but raising Q2 on the resurgence of Covid-19 and government countermeasures, while also trimming forecasts for activity, inflation and credit indicators. This is why:

Activity: To fight the worst wave of Covid-19 since the initial outbreak, central and local governments have tightened social distancing measures, reimposed some lockdown measures and travel bans, and encouraged migrant workers to stay in their workplace cities for the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday. We believe these measures will impair the recovery in the services sector, but may provide a small boost to industrial production and construction in South China, as workers would remain at their workplaces. To reflect this, we recently cut our Q1 real GDP growth forecast to 18.0% y-o-y from 19.0%, but raised our Q2 forecast to 8.1% from 7.9%, as we expect some pent-up demand to be released once these restrictions are eased. Our Q3 and Q4 growth forecasts remain nchanged. As a result, we lowered our 2021 annual growth forecast to 8.8% from 9.0% earlier.
Policy: Due to the resurgence of Covid-19 and the related growth slowdown, we believe Beijing will maintain its pledge to avoid any sharp shift in policies and its pace of normalisation will thus be highly contingent on the Covid-19 situation. We expect the PBoC to maintain its “wait-and-see” approach in the near term before resuming its gradual policy normalisation. We believe the recent surge in interbank rates was partly due to some special factors linked to RMB appreciation and cross-border RMB settlement, and expect the PBoC to ramp up short-term liquidity injections to keep interbank rates largely stable around the LNY holidays, though it may not inject as much liquidity as in previous years as the new Covid-19 wave also reduces liquidity demand.

3. China's bans on Australian Coal may end up being an own goal.
From The Australian

QUOTE
China’s ban on Australian coal imports is intensifying a crisis in its coal market, which is battling surging prices, supply shortages, conflicting policy goals and a cold winter.

Locked in a diplomatic brawl over Canberra’s call for an independent global inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, Beijing imposed an informal ban around September that forced boatloads of Australian coal to languish at sea. China’s central government made the embargo official at a mid-December meeting with major Chinese electricity producers, who are big buyers of thermal coal.

The ban complicated a supply crunch that the meeting was convened to solve, government and state media reports show. China was short of thermal coal and officials urged the companies to import more--from anywhere except Australia, China’s biggest supplier. To comply, buyers in China have had to pay steep premiums for imports from farther afield, on top of prices that have risen 84 per cent since mid-year.

“Coal buyers are on tenterhooks watching the import market,” the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, which represents importers, said in a statement. “It’s been hard to replenish low coal inventory and shortages, while demand is unabated."

Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2021, 10:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Hey EB, where do you think Telstra is headed short term??
I have a heap at a price of 2.96 and a bit.
Usually if I make above 10% on something in a relatively short time, I offload half and take the profits.
But the 5 cps div is coming up, which with franking makes it attractive to retired old coots like me.
But the big question is, how far will it fall after the it goes ex div?
Its up 1% today.
If it adds another 3% before the 24th , I may have to take the chance that many buyers are in for the divvy, and it will fall at least 5% after it goes ex div.
So many difficult choices.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2021, 10:15 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
Did Powell give everyone the green light to just keep buying stocks for the next two years?

Just hours after the latest CPI number came in lower than expected, with core inflation printing unchanged, and sparking a 10Y Treasury short squeeze which sent yields sharply lower, the Fed’s Powell then said that we will probably see an increase in inflation readings in coming months... but “that won’t mean much.” So, as Rabo's Michael Every says "getting hotter – but please let’s focus on the colder parts."

But here is the punchline: Powell explained that the latest 6.3% unemployment rate is not indicative of the economic reality, and underlined that the US economy is 10 million jobs down from where it was a year ago.

So, as Every notes, to replace all these lost workers by end-2022 - when consensus expects the first rate to take place - and accounting for natural labor-market growth, means we will need an average payrolls figure of over 500,00 every month through to next December
As the Rabo strategist notes, "that’s an awful lot of heating up."

And since it is virtually assured that the US economy won't be adding half a million people per month for a long time, it is safe to assume that the Fed's rate hikes - as per Powell's guidance - have been put on indefinite hold.

Which is why Every concludes that "markets will continue to do all the heating for the labor market, and very happily. Like a microwave meal, we are overheating some parts and leaving others cold: no central-bank rhetoric is capable of stirring things - is the government?".


So, with no rates increase, its game on. t
The stock market will keep going up, which of course is inhabited by the rich, so their already bulging pockets will be even "bulgier" (is that a word???). As I have said before, doesn't matter who is the POTUS, who runs the two houses, who runs the media, in the end the elites who have the power and the wealth only get more of each.
As for the poor, well they will continue to rely on government handouts, so of course will continue to vote for whoever promises them the most.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2021, 09:34 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The continuing problems of semiconductor supply may not ease any time soon according to Nikkei Asia
QUOTE
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is rushing to try and build new facilities through the Chinese New Year in order to meet demand.

TSMC is one of the biggest suppliers of chips to company like Apple, Google and Qualcomm. As a result of a worldwide shortage in chips that was brought on due to the pandemic, they are now rushing to try and get a new factory in the southern Taiwanese city of Tainan built. It'll be "the world's most advanced 3-nanometer chip production plant," according to Nikkei. The company is also building a research and data center in Hsinchu.

Construction the new facility will take place throughout 2021, with completion expected in 2022.

In addition to the 3nm plant, the company is also preparing to boost its capacity to make 5nm chips. These chips are using in the latest 5G iPhone 12s and new Mac core processors. TSMC wants to boost production by 70% from the end of last year.

It'll be resuming construction "a few days earlier" than most coming out of the Lunar New Year in southern Taiwan. TSMC is also boosting capex by $25 billion, to $28 billion, this year.
Car manufacturers have already reported halts in car production due to chip shortages for ECU's and other electronic management systems.
(see Here )
With Taiwan becoming the epicentre of nano chips, it makes even more sense for China to stocks up on these chips and then start the "soft invasion" process of Taiwan. Blockade the Island, patrol the skies with Chinese Military attack aircraft so nothing gets in or out , and by saying they are merely protecting their renegade province, not calling it an invasion or declaration of war. Having obseved how meekly the west rolled over when Russia took over Crimea, they will think its a done deal.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 12 2021, 07:12 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

One of the other highlights of this half years results was the debt was reduced by almost half from 700mill at the end of 2020 Fin year to 375mill.
Despite debt being as cheap as any form of funding, they are still smashing it down.
The more I look into it, the more I like it.
Don't know how I missed this in my search for gold stocks to play with.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2021, 07:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I have never been a big fan of the ABC in general and Michael Rowland in particular, but in this instance he was perfectly legit.
Rowland asked Mr Hunt “why did he feel the need to attach a Liberal Party logo to an Australian government announcement” last week that it had secured an additional 10 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine.
This was a perfectly legitimate question, but Hunt merely accused Rowland of being a typical leftie.
That may well be true, but it is irrelevant.
The coalition needs to ask themselves why was the logo attached?
Now they have two problems instead of one.
Who said Pollies are dumb?
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2021, 05:17 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Just follow up on the failed Silver short squeeze.
Next time the kids at WSB decide they are going after something, they may think twice about telegraphing their intentions.
After effectively telling everyone that they were going after the short squeeze on Silver, it comes as no surprise that the COT reports show that the big bullion banks added an astounding 6,672 new short contracts for 33.4 million ounces ounces) in the same week that the squeeze started. Talk about contempt for for your "opponents".
There is still big markups on physical in the form of small bars and coins.
However, you would think that bullion companies would be keen buyers to retail back to the punters.
However, the mark up is one way
With the spot price of silver at$35.93 an ounce,
ABC Bullion are selling 1 OZ silver rat coins at $56.29., quite a markup, even allowing for the costs of manufacturing the coins.
However, if you have one to sell to them, they are only offering #33.13, a staggering margin of $23.16, or over %41 under the sell price.
A 5kg silver bar will set you back $6,137.88, which surprisngly is equivalent to $34.84 an ounce, a 3% discount to spot.
However, if you were to turn around nd sell it back to them , the offer price is$4,991.33, $1136.55 or around18% discount.
But the all of these pale into insignificance compared to the 1oz PAMP minted silver bar which retails at almost twice the spot price of silver at $70.35.
However, to sell it back to them you will get a mere #33.17.
That's a 100% markdown kids.
Nice work if you can get it.
Is it surprising that folks shun physical for paper trades and ETF's etc.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2021, 02:29 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Glad I took the losses on this last year.
Always had faith in the technology, but they just never seemed to be able to scale it up to big sales.
Got sick of waiting.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2021, 11:25 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

NST quarterly results show revenue was in line with expectation.
The good news was the earnings increase of approx 20% ahead of the consensus views, largely achieved via the continued high gold price and improved operational procedures.
The upcoming merger with SAR should further provide synergies at the Kalgoorlie super pit and reduce costs further.
Managements aim is to improve the operational efficiencies by 10% over the next three years.
As it nears becoming a 2mill OZ producer , it will come to the attention of the bigger investors, which may also be good for medium term prospects.
Was going to offload my NST once the SAR merger is complete, but have decided this will become a long term portfolio hold (unless the price rockets of course).
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2021, 10:20 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Without getting into any pro vs anti trump rhetoric,I found the headline from ABC NEWS interesting.
QUOTE
US Senate votes Donald Trump's second impeachment trial is constitutional and should continue

I am always open to correction, but I was always under the impression that the US supreme Court was the only body able to determine the validity of something under constitutional Law.
Having the senate or House of reps determine it as such has about as much weight as Pauline Hanson.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2021, 09:14 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

SAR reported for the last time before being swallowed by NST, and not a bad report it was.
I bought some mainly for the special dividend of 3.8 cents, which ifpproval from the tax dept will be worth 16 cents in tax benefit.
Everything up, NPAT up 85%, EBIT up 44%, gold production up 43%, net cash up 12%.
Would be very happy if this was a standalone op, lets see what happens when they convert to NST.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 10 2021, 09:01 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

We now have 5 cases in Vic from the Hotel Quarantine system. This very same system that Daniel Andrews claims has much higher standards.
I suppose that technically it has if you compare it to the balls up that was hotel quarantine back in July when we had 800 deaths.
The bloke has a hide thicker than an entire herd of elephants.

QUOTE
Earlier on Tuesday, Mr Andrews declared Victoria would never take as many overseas return travellers as NSW because his state has “higher standards” in the hotel quarantine program than its northern neighbour.

From Monday, weekly overseas arrival limits will increase, with Victoria’s cap to lift from 1120 people to 1310, while NSW and Queensland will each double to 3010 and 1000 respectively.

South Australia’s cap will rise from 490 to 530, while Western Australia will remain at 512.

“I can foreshadow for you that we’re not going to go anywhere near the capacity that NSW has,” Mr Andrews said.

“We have less capacity because we have a different model and I believe higher standards … I can say that because it’s true.

“There’s not 3500 private security working in our system. Do I need to go any further than that?” Mr Andrews said.

But Gladys Berejiklian dismissed the criticism and said her state “continues to do the heavy lifting”. “Until Victoria is prepared to increase its intake, more Victorians will inevitably have to return through the NSW system, and we are ready to do what we must in the national interest,” the NSW Premier said on Tuesday.


Gladys takes the high moral ground.
Plenty of people clamouring to take it from her.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 9 2021, 02:11 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Kinda surprised no one has had anything to say about CCP over the past two and a half years.
Its a major player in credit markets.
The price had risen to high of 37 before the Covid panic in march.
It then plunged to a low of $6, one hell of a fall.
Since then it has risen almost back to where it was, trading at a recent high of $34.
Still seems a bit pricey to me, even allowing for the improved expectation of earnings.
PE at 130, forecast next year at a more modest 38.
Would have been a good bet back in March with over a 400% increase.
Hindsight, what a great way to invest.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 9 2021, 11:11 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Somebody thinks the SAR - NST merger will not be upwards mover.
FromShortman I see that the shorting of NST has gone from 1% back in November last year to over 8% today.
Given that the merger of SAR and NST will be complete in the next few days, maybe they are thinking that all the SAR holders will take the special dividend from SAR before the merge then desert NST once the new NST shares are issued.
I have to admit that this was my plan. May rethink it.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 9 2021, 08:39 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Got back into ALK, PE down to low 30's is still a bit high.
But it does produce gold, is profitable, and has fallen a fair way from highs.
Gold price creeping up, so looking for a quick scalp.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 9 2021, 07:45 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

And according to Zero Hedge , Apple is going to go a bit larger than Musk to buy some bitcoin.
QUOTE
Which will be the next top 20 company to convert (some) cash to cryptoConveniently, just as we were scratching out heads over this critical question - which also answers how Bitcoin will hit $100,000 next - RBC published an initiating coverage report on AAPL (with a street-high price target of $171), in which analyst Mitch Steves explained why he believes that AAPL should focus on developing an "Apple Wallet" concept first (and leave the Apple car for later), in order to leverage its 1.5 billion installed user base and to unveil a Coinbase-like Apple Exchange later which allows bitcoin transactions and which would add about $50 billion in value.

More importantly, the RBC analyst then says that should Apple purchase just $1 billion in bitcoin, or "4 days of cash flow", it would send even more users to "Apple Exchange". To be sure, in the aftermath of Tesla's announcement today, which validates the so-called "use case" and confirms that rising adoption of bitcoin among some of the most advanced companies is just a matter of time, such an outcome is even more likely.

Below we lay out some of the key highlights from Steves' note, in which he first discusses the "low risk, high reward" Apple Wallet opportunity...

When we think of the Apple Wallet, there is a clear opportunity in our view to create a buying and selling mechanism for crypto currencies (in addition to standard payment processing – although not necessary). To be clear, we do not believe Apple needs to hold bitcoin as a balance sheet asset (although it would likely help – more on this later), but rather allow users to buy and sell crypto assets.

Taking a big picture view of this, if we look at recent articles from The Block, which suggest Coinbase will be valued at ~$50B (at $200/share), this means Apple could potentially generate a similar or higher amount of value. Why? The firm already has a robust software ecosystem and install base to take significant and sudden market share from crypto currency exchanges (others include Binance, Kraken, and Gemini – all private companies but would be competitors in this situation). Looking at PayPal, for example, the firm now allows for buying and selling of crypto assets but does not allow for crypto assets to be sent off the system to a hardware wallet (individual custody). While many users/customers would not like this aspect, it has not stopped PayPal from generating additional revenue in a closed ecosystem.

In fact, if we think about a closed ecosystem, it removes the risk of the asset being removed from an exchange. According to Glassnode, exchange balances are falling and this would disrupt the exchange business model as there would be no assets to buy and sell for a fee.
Which will be the next top 20 company to convert (some) cash to crypto

The important thing here is that apple is not just "diversifying financial assets", but positioning the apple Wallet software to become the defacto banking system for bitcoin.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 9 2021, 07:27 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Broad not playing this test.
Its been the spinners that have done the damage for England so far.
Bess and Leach got six between them in the first dig, and Leach has the only wicket in the second dig so far.
The fast bowlers are just there to taken the shine off the new ball and patrol third man/fine leg.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2021, 09:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

So, Pakistan have knocked off the Saffas 2 zip in the two match series.
Just need for India to score the 420 odd runs required in the fourth innings to knock off the poms, and all will be well again.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2021, 03:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I said the on Feb 3
QUOTE
Bought back into LKE, has fallen a long way back from the silly highs.
Hopefully it will stabilise around these levels.


After buying back in at 26, got taken out again at 37.
Around 42% in less than a week.
Have no idea why they jumped back to this level, but its a great way to make money.
Now sit around and wait for the next pull back.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2021, 10:35 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Been looking at OZl as an entry back into copper.
Since the covid induced low, copper prices have increased nearly 50%.
OZL has increased by in that time by 122%.
Its on a PE of 37, forecast PE next year still high at 32.
Just can't seem to get enough good vibes out of it at the moment.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2021, 10:26 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Congratulations, hope you make a motza.
mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 8 2021, 08:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Not sure how plastic can replace much copper.
Plastic does not conduct electricity or heat very well.
At best it might be replaced by other cheaper but less conductive metals, but then you need larger amounts of the less conductive material to conduct the same amount of energy.
For instance , there has always been a tradeoff between using copper and aluminium in High Voltage transmission lines.
Copper is stronger and a better conductor than aluminium.
Aluminium is much cheaper however, but also more brittle and less conductive. So they wrap the aluminium wire with steel cables to take the tension and carry some of the electricity. But this increases both the weight and cost. At some point the costs outweigh the advantages.
Perhaps in non conductive uses, such as in replacing copper pipes with plastic might be the go.
But even then, there are limitations.
Gas transmission for instance must be transported by copper or steel or some other chemically inactive material.
Even my Gas BBQ had to have copper delivery.
And finally, plastic generally comes from fossil fuels, and we are not allowed to use them.
Perhaps more food producing land will be taken up by growing plants to produce organics which must be converted to oil lke substances to produce the plastics etc.
Life just becomes a big circle.
Silver is a great conductor and is already consumed in industry.
However, it is almost as heavy as gold, so conductive silver tends to be plated on a lighter metal substrate.
Heavily used in anti bacterial applications and in solar panels.
Mick


  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 7 2021, 08:40 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The Windies, after looking well beaten over four days, have turned around and scored their second highest ever fourth innings score to win the first test against Bangladesh, mainly thanks to the double century by the wicket keeper Kyle Mayers on debut.
Surprisingly, he is the third person to have done so
Pakistan have looked all over South Africa and have set them 370 in the last innings to win that test, and have already lost a wicket in the chase..
India down to the last four wickets and still 345 runs behind.
Might be a little difficult to win from here for the Indians.
Lucky we aren't playing the poms in England!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 7 2021, 03:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

From Tavi Costa
QUOTE
Crescat's Tavi Costa points out something remarkable which many may have missed amid the short squeeze and "growth" stock frenzy: oil, that "value" age relic, has had its best YTD performance in 30 years. As Costa puts it "commodities are leading the way and the inflationary thesis keeps building up" (incidentally none of this is lost on those long XOM which is not only the most levered - for better or worse - way to bet on rising oil prices but pays a generous 7%+ dividend while waiting for Warren Buffett to announce that he has amassed a 10% stake).


In any case, those following the reflation theme better pay attention, because with crude oil prices joining their commodity cousins in repairing the pandemic damage, inflation rumblings are getting a little louder which means that the day central banks may be forced to tighten financial conditions (perish the thought) is nearing once again.

Of course, with every major developed economy still printing headline and core inflation below 2%, this is not today’s problem, but there is a reason for that: metrics such as CPI and PCE are politically convenient measures that strip away virtually all basket components whose prices are surging to give central banks leeway to pursue politically acceptable policies of reflating all assets (until the bubble bursts, but by then that will be some other politician's problem).

Still, as BMO's Doug Porter shows, the year-over-year rise in a basket of commodity prices (and they mostly all show a similar pattern) is now a bit above 25%. This is a problem because in the past 20 years, that’s been consistent with headline inflation of just under 4%... or rather, it would be a problem if government headline inflation data actually reflected the reality of prices.



That said, Porter notes some caveats and cautions that some of the biggest misses (where commodities popped and inflation didn’t) were immediately after recessions. That’s because there is still so much slack in the economy that cost increases don’t get fully passed along. (Note especially 2010/11.)

Still, as the BMO strategist concludes, "barring a fast fall in resource prices, it looks like the days of sub-1% inflation are rapidly drawing to a close."


Need to look at some of the commodities with a greater level of detail.
Costa talks about oil and silver, but there are other commodities that may be in for a jump.
The two for me are Copper and Lithium.
Both are going to be in great demand for transport needs of the future as Internal combustion engines are phased out.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 7 2021, 10:52 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

And it only gets better for the POMS.
8/555 after two days.
Joe root goes on to his third century in a row, two of which were double centuries.
I think all that talk about him not being able to convert 50's to 100's might be starting to wane.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 6 2021, 05:58 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

From Wall street on parade
QUOTE
This morning we decided to take a look to see if the SEC was potentially aware of naked short selling in the shares of GameStop – the subject of House and Senate investigations and a hastily called meeting of regulators yesterday by U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, who also holds the position as Chair of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

It turns out that GameStop shows up on the SEC’s list of “Fails-to-Deliver,” a report that raises suspicions (but not conclusive proof) that somebody was engaging in naked short-selling in the shares of GameStop.

GameStop’s market cap spiked from $2 billion to $22.6 billion in a matter of days in January. Along the way, a large hedge fund, Melvin Capital, which was short the stock (a bet that the price would decline) had to be bailed out by Ken Griffin’s Citadel hedge fund, while a related company, Citadel Advisors, was also net short the stock. This week GameStop shares have been plunging back to earth. Adding to the cries of foul play, devotees of a Reddit message board, WallStreetBets, who had been hawking GameStop’s future prospects and buying the stock, had restrictions placed on their ability to buy any sizeable number of shares by their favored trading app, Robinhood, which directs the bulk of its trades to Citadel Securities for execution.

In order to sell a stock short, your brokerage firm has to loan you the stock. The stock is typically borrowed from the brokerage firm’s own inventory, the margin account of other brokerage firm clients, or another lender. If the price of the stock declines, the short seller can buy the stock back at the lower price and make a profit. If the price of the stock rises, the short seller will lose money. Because there is no cap on how high the price of a stock can go, the short seller is taking on unlimited risk.

In a naked short sale, the broker handling the trade for the customer does not borrow or arrange to borrow the securities in time to deliver the shares to the buyer on the other side of the trade within the standard three-day settlement period. This is what is meant by Fails-to-Deliver, also known as simply “fails,” which can be a red flag of naked short-selling.

According to the latest Securities and Exchange Commission data for Fails-to-Deliver, GameStop has been experiencing huge fails to deliver since at least December 18, when an aggregate of 872,523 shares had failed to deliver on their settlement date. The figure of fails had been 10,874 just two days earlier, on December 16.

The SEC reports the fails to deliver data twice a month. The most recent data runs through January 14 of this year. On that date, GameStop still had an aggregate of 621,483 shares that had failed to deliver.

The SEC explains the following about how persistent fails to deliver are to be dealt with under its rules:

“Rule 203(b)(3) of Regulation SHO requires that participants of a registered clearing agency must immediately purchase shares to close out failures to deliver in securities with large and persistent failures to deliver, referred to as ‘threshold securities,’ if the failures to deliver persist for 13 consecutive settlement days. Threshold securities are equity securities that have an aggregate fail to deliver position for five consecutive settlement days at a registered clearing agency (e.g., National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC)); totaling 10,000 shares or more; and equal to at least 0.5% of the issuer’s total shares outstanding.”

According to Yahoo Finance, GameStop has 69.75 million shares outstanding, meaning that it has not only far exceeded the 10,000-share threshold but that it has also exceeded the 0.5 percent of outstanding shares threshold.

It’s time for Sherrod Brown, the new Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and Maxine Waters, the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, to do far more than whisper to the SEC, “Do something.”


So, we have a new regime in the White House.
But really nothing changes.
Biden made more executive orders in his first 15 days than the last four presidents put together.
No 22, Eliminating the use of Private Run prisons is probably the only one that might hep the poor.
nothing about governance of Banks, Hedge funds , dark pools, and tax avoidance.
In the meantime, the wealthy scions just keep right on screwing everyone else with the connivance of the governance bodies.
Welcome to the 'New" America.
Mick
Nothing about
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 6 2021, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Not sure if I agree with the best bowling attack in the world.
This same attack failed twice to dismiss the Indian team in the last innings of a five day test.
One draw, one loss.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2021, 08:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

England touring India.
You would think that after making OZ look second rate in our own backyard , India with Sharma and Bumrah back to lead the attack that they bwould make life difficult for the POMS.
Well, into the third session on then opening day, the Poms are 2/227.
Makes OZ team performance look even worse.
Joe root currently on 100 NO, scored in his 100th test.
Prior to this test the Poms played two in Sri Lanka and won both easily.
Joe Root scored 228 and 186 in those two.
So thats three in a row, away from England, in Asia.
Looks like a bloke in form.
Lucky that tour of SA was cancelled, otherwise we would be well down the list of test playing nations.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2021, 03:46 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

ARD up today, which kinda puzzles me.
Ignoring the recent crazy highs due to Reddit squeese play, it is sitting only just below the previous 52 week high.
Plenty of buyers over sellers.
Thought it would go back to around 48-50 which was my previous buys, but looks like my lowball buys are a bit off the mark.
Not keen on chasing it too much higher, so will sit this one out.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2021, 03:41 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

MKR, like SVL and ARD, had a big run up during the great silver queese last week.
However, unlike SVL it has not fallen too far after the 15% drop in silver, and closed the week at 46 , up 12% for the day.
Will keep holding onto these for a while I think.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2021, 03:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Kinda surprised that SVL closed at 25.
I would have though that after the action of the past week with the Reddit experts trying and failing miserably to repeat the squeeze on Silver that they put on GME, the punters would have raced for the exits.
Silver now down nearly 15% from its recent high, but still a queue of buyers for VL, albeit at lower prices than the 25 offered.
However, enough changed hands at at that price later in the day to put a bit of a floor under it.
I guess its ok given the 52 week high during the week was 36.5, but SVL has had much bigger swings during the year.
Was looking to repurchase under 20, but I may miss out on that one.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2021, 02:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Despite the fall in gold overnight that continued during the Asian trading session, most of goldies are well up today.
This suggests to me that those in the know will see gold go up in US markets tonite heading into the weekend.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2021, 12:45 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

From Nikki Asia
QUOTE
OSAKA -- Panasonic will withdraw from solar cells and panel production, Nikkei has learned, as the former leading maker now faces fierce competition from Chinese rivals that can produce the items at a lower cost.

Panasonic will quit manufacturing as early as March 2022 at factories in Malaysia and Japan's Shimane Prefecture. The move marks a complete exit from the solar manufacturing business after the Osaka-based company scrapped a partnership with Tesla that produced solar cells last year.

Panasonic will procure solar panels from other manufacturers to stay in the power industry through such businesses as installing generation systems for residential use.

According to the International Energy Agency, the amount of new solar power generation this year is expected to reach 117 million kilowatts, up 10% from the previous year. Due to the increased production by Chinese manufactures, the price of solar panels has fallen to about a third of 2012 prices.

The lower prices from Chinese rivals forced Japanese manufacturing out of production. Panasonic's solar cell and panel business has been in the red.


The takeover by China of all things tech continues.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 5 2021, 09:22 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I'll pass on Warren. The vid shows just how ineffectual congress really is.
Warren rightly highlighted that the scumbags at Wells Fargo should have been removed, and Yellen had the power, and did not do so.
It also highlighted the fact that Yellen would not reveal "confidential information to congress"'.
The fed is a private organisation run by the big banks for the benefit of the big banks.
She presided over some of the biggest scandals of the US banks post GFC , yet did nothing.
Her reward, Treasury Head in the Biden Administration.
Elizabeth Warren is too old, has been found out too many times spouting bullshit (like being part native American) , and is part of the establishment.
In short, another extremely wealthy well connected insider pretending to care about "the poor", but never actually wants to mix with them.
But her biggest failing is that like Kamala Harris, ran for the Dems nomination and was knocked back in the earliest rounds of voting.
If the majority of Dems think that Biden, Sanders, Buttigeg etc el are better bets than those two, it hardly shows them in a great light.
AOC might be a fruitcake, and be totally impractical, but she is at least not "owned" by the establishment.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2021, 06:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Riane said
QUOTE
There are a few videos of her on Youtube
Heres Katie going to work on JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon.(he looks like the professor on Gilligans Island)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WLuuCM6Ej0

Just spent an hour or so watching that video, plus the one where she decimated that low life Zuckerberg.
I also thoroughly enjoyed her taking apart the CEO of Wells Fargo. And the one where she asks about the lack of independence of Fed Chair Powell.
Delicious.
Hope she eventually runs for higher office.
She has a forensic accountants ability to use the existing stats to point out the criminality of those at the top.
More power to her.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2021, 02:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

But those congress grillings just make good current affairs fodder.
Nothing gets done about it.
Jamie Dimon is as big a crook as Al Capone.
The difference is we currently lack the Elliot Ness's to put the little shit in the slammer where he belongs.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2021, 11:06 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The so called experts in the fin world, the media aparatchiks that tell you what goes on, don't really have a clue.
AS always, follow the money.
From Wall Street on parade

QUOTE
Politico reported yesterday that the House Financial Services Committee plans to call Vlad Tenev to testify on February 18. That’s the CEO of the online trading app known as Robinhood that has played a role in the controversy surrounding the bull raid (now turned bear raid) in the shares of GameStop. If that’s to be the only witness, you might as well call Ken Griffin’s personal shopper to testify.

Griffin is the billionaire founder, CEO and majority owner of Citadel, which has been operating in the GameStop saga like a maestro from an orchestra pit. (For our previous profile of Griffin and Citadel, see here.)

As Melvin Capital, a major short seller in the shares of GameStop was about to collapse as the stock soared, Griffin and Citadel’s hedge fund rode to the rescue, injecting $2 billion in cash into Melvin to save its hide. The first question for the House Financial Services Committee is exactly what was the motivation for Griffin to prop up a competing hedge fund.

Then there is the fact that as all of those millennials and Gen-Zers at Reddit’s WallStreetBets message board were strategizing on their bull raid against the short sellers, Griffin’s Citadel Execution Services had a telescopic view of what was happening because Citadel Execution Services executes a big chunk of both stock and option trades for Robinhood. That unit of Citadel can see both the direction and the dollar volume of money heading to push a stock up or down. And, it gets to see all of that before it executes the trades, raising speculation that it might be tempted to front-run these trades for its own account.

This is known as payment-for-order-flow and it’s probably not a comforting thought that this is what Bernie Madoff’s broker-dealer was doing while Bernie was running the largest Ponzi scheme in history.

According to Robinhood’s 606 form that it filed with the SEC for the final quarter of last year, Citadel Execution Services paid it tens of millions of dollars a quarter for the privilege of executing its stock and option trades. The really big bucks resulted from Robinhood’s option trades, not its stock trades. The 606 form shows that in just the month of December 2020, Citadel Execution Services paid Robinhood $28 million for directing its option trades to Citadel.

Now we have just learned that Citadel Advisors LLC (one of the sprawling tentacles of Citadel) had a large net short position in GameStop but also stood to make money as the stock whipsawed up and down. According to Citadel Advisors LLC’s most recent 13F form filed with the SEC for the quarter ending September 30, 2020, it owned puts on 2.5 million shares of GameStop (which are option bets that the stock price will decline); it owned calls on 2 million shares of GameStop (option bets that the price will rise); and it owned 111,805 shares outright of GameStop. Unfortunately, the 13F does not provide the strike prices or expiration dates of the puts and calls. (That information is missing on all 13F forms and the SEC needs to include that information in the interest of transparency.)

Here is where things get very interesting about Citadel Advisors LLC. Its Form ADV which was filed on January 15 of this year, shows that it has just 19 clients for which it manages a total of $234,679,962,503. That’s $12.35 billion per client. So let’s get this straight: Citadel Execution Services is allowed by the SEC to pay for order flow so that it can trade against the dumb money coming in from Robinhood while another tentacle of Citadel is managing money for 19 clients who can cough up $12.35 billion each. Welcome to the most lop-sided playing field in the history of markets.

It’s also quite interesting that while Citadel is headquartered in Chicago, the capital of options and futures trading, the tentacles of Citadel Advisors LLC spread to three continents. It has offices in London, Hong Kong, Edinburgh, U.K. and numerous cities in the U.S. including Chicago, New York City and Greenwich, Connecticut (the town that hedge fund titans call home).

Maxine Waters, Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, needs to put Ken Griffin under oath and unravel all of the moving parts of Citadel. The unflappable Katie Porter and her Harvard Law degree should do the grilling of Griffin.

Waters also needs to call all of the other high stakes players who had big long or short positions in GameStop and put them under oath. That’s Gabe Plotkin of Melvin Capital, a former trader at Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital. (In 2013 four of SAC Capital’s businesses pled guilty to a sprawling insider trading case brought by the U.S. Department of Justice and paid $1.8 billion in fines and restitution.)

Then there is Ryan Cohen of RC Ventures that ramped up its purchases of GameStop to 9 million shares as of January 10 of this year; Richard Mashaal’s Senvest Management which showed ownership of 3.6 million shares of GameStop at the end of the third quarter of 2020; and John Broderick’s Permit Capital and Kurt Wolf’s Hestia Capital, that held big stakes in GameStop and frequently acted together in advocating change at GameStop.

Another indispensable voice on the panel of witnesses is Michael Burry, who owned 2.8 million shares of GameStop through his company, Scion Asset Management. Burry is one of the guys that bet big against subprime debt in the leadup to the 2008 Wall Street crash. His character was played by Christian Bale in the movie, The Big Short. Business Insider reports that Burry was Tweeting about GameStop and then deleted his Tweets. One of the Tweets by Burry stated this, according to Business Insider:

“There really can’t be another GME [stock symbol for GameStop]. Nothing else is/was even close to as shorted (100+% of float), so small (microcap), and so hated/ignored/dismissed prior to the #thebigshortsqueeze.”

Then there is billionaire Jeffrey Yass, a founder and now Managing Director at the stealthy Susquehanna International Group (SIG). The company filed a 13F with the SEC for the third quarter of 2020 that listed the following position in GameStop: 4.44 million shares owned outright; puts on 2.8 million shares; calls on 697,700 shares; giving it a net long (bullish) stance on GameStop.

Donald Foss, a Michigan billionaire who founded subprime auto lender, Credit Acceptance Corp, also held a large stake in GameStop. As of February 2020, Foss owned 3.5 million shares of GameStop, representing at that time approximately 5.3 percent of the company.

In addition to ferreting out whether there was any coordinated actions among the big players in GameStock (both long and short) the House Financial Services Committee needs to find out how such a high percentage of GameStop’s shares were in the hands of sophisticated investors and yet 140 percent of its outstanding shares were reportedly shorted. Exactly which Wall Street firms or Prime Brokers were loaning GameStop shares to be shorted, in excess of the total shares in existence.

As usual, the rich get richer and F$#@^ the rest.
The various alphabets that are supposed to keep watch on all of these guys just never seems to be able rto pin them down.
Don't know if its a lack of ability or lack of resources, or the fact that so many in the govt watchdogs are ex employees of the crims.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 4 2021, 10:03 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Up 15% on news that REE has signed an MOU with a Chinese rare earth company.
Non binding MOU - even if it was binding, the CCP will drop it should it desire to do so.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2021, 03:32 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

At last, some good news comes out thanks to China.
From ABC news

QUOTE
The price of red wine is set to plummet as the effects of trade tariffs take hold, with new data from China showing Australian wine imports there down by about 75 per cent since trade tensions began.

Might put some speccy orders in for cheap grange.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2021, 03:25 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

ASIC may have let WBC off the hook, but the High Court has not.
From ABC NEWS

QUOTE
Westpac is facing fines in the tens of millions of dollars after the High Court ruled it broke the law in offering advice to superannuation customers.

Westpac's campaign to drive membership of its superannuation subsidiary overstepped financial laws
The High Court found an average person would have expected Westpac to take account of their individual needs
The banking giant could be facing penalties stretching into the tens of millions of dollars
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) pursued the banking giant over a campaign in which it advised customers to roll all of their superannuation accounts into Westpac's investment management subsidiary, BT.

As a result of the campaign, the bank increased the funds under its management by almost $650 million between January 1, 2013 and September 16, 2016.

The advice, which was provided to customers by letter and phone, included the statement that "if you combine your super into one account, you could save on administration fees and enjoy the convenience of having all your super in one place".

The case centred on whether an ordinary person would have expected Westpac to have considered their personal financial circumstances before advising they take up the offer.

Under the law, the bank is required to consider those individual issues, if it offers "personal" advice.

"Was the advice given or directed to the member in circumstances where a reasonable person might expect that Westpac had considered one or more of the member's objectives, financial situation and needs?" Justice Michelle Gordon said, summarising the key issue.

Justice Gordon said the tone and tenor of the telephone calls had a repeated emphasis on helping customers in relation to superannuation, which meant customers could have expected their personal situation had been considered.

"Westpac gave financial product advice to each member … in circumstances where a reasonable person might expect Westpac to have considered one or more of the member's objectives, financial situation and needs," she said.


Happy to not be owning any bank shares at the moment.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2021, 03:19 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Perhaps one of the reasons for the recent surge in LKE might be because of the price increases of Lithium carbonate.
From Kito News
QUOTE
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence released a report today showing carbonate prices increasing by over 40% within China in January 2021 on the back of continued surging lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery demand.

Benchmark said that the midpoint, prevailing transacted price of the Benchmark Lithium Carbonate, Technical Grade, EXW China, ≥99.0% Li2CO3, increased by 41.35% to $8,375/tonne (RMB54,000/tonne). Meanwhile, the midpoint, prevailing transacted price of the Benchmark Lithium Carbonate, Battery Grade, EXW China, ≥99.5% Li2CO3, rose by 41.04% to $9,450/tonne (RMB61,000/tonne).

“Lithium ion battery related policy incentives in China are geared towards subsidising shorter-range vehicles, public transport fleet electrification, 5G power stations, all of which encourage LFP consumption.
“It’s back to the future for lithium in China," said lithium analyst, George Miller, at Benchmark.
“Demand for durable, improved, and low cost LFP cathode material has become rejuvenated in China – a very similar story to what we saw in lithium’s last price run of 2016 but with a much improved product for the 2020s."

A 40% increase in January alone.
That is hardly sustainable.
Fully expect China to start leaning on those Governments in the Lithium triangle of South America to make those price increases come down to "more sutainable" levels.

Mick

  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2021, 01:26 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Bought back into LKE, has fallen a long way back from the silly highs.
Hopefully it will stabilise around these levels.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 3 2021, 08:24 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Could be wrong Mac, but I reckon you posted this in the wrong thread.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 2 2021, 03:08 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Here is a better explanation of the differences between Gameplay and SIlver.
From Kitco
QUOTE
The silver market is seeing a historic run with price pushing to an eight-year high as organized retail investors buy the precious metal en masse; however, some analysts note that the surging price action might not be sustainable.

In a report published on Monday, Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis said that the new interest in silver could harm the precious metal ’s long-term potential. While the silver is holding on to strong gains Monday, the market is well off its highs above $30 an ounce. March silver futures last traded at $29.04 an ounce, up nearly 8% on the day.

Dahdah noted that there are a lot of misconceptions as retail investors, organized through social media, try to force the silver price higher. He added that unlike some stocks that were targeted last week, the silver market does not have a significant short position.

“There is a misunderstanding from the proponents on Reddit that the bullion banks are outright short, when in reality they are only trading the spread. There are two risks that the bullion banks face, but which retail investors can ’t reasonably influence: 1) Dollar funding issues 2) physical delivery problems. he said. “Banks will make a profit from commissions taken on processing the requests of physically-backed ETFs (ironically those attacking them are indirectly handing them their own money), hedging the mining companies and a general uptick in business on the back of volatility.”

Dahdah added that the fallout from higher silver prices is that the CME might be forced to raise its margins for the precious metal. This move could force some investors out of the marketplace, he added.

“In 2011, when silver prices rallied, initial and maintenance requirements at the CME rose by 84% in eight days. This, in turn, led to a 20% drop in silver prices as some speculators were unable or unwilling to bear the costs of holding positions,” he said.

Lots of people have already gone broke in the past trying to unload on the bullion banks.
Can't see how this one will be any different.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 2 2021, 01:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I had a look at rentpay a while back, but I did not understand their business model.
Initially I assumed that they were just another "rent seeker" (excuse the pun) whereby they insert themselves between the tennant and the landlord and clip the money as it transferred between the two.
But then when you look at the website, it states on the front page that for Agents at least, "there are no ongoing subscription fees".
However, when you go into their FAQ, I see the following statement:
QUOTE
When do I pay my fees?
RentPay levy your fees via direct debit from your nominated bank account on the first business day of each month. The amount will be made up of your membership fee plus any additional transaction costs that may apply to you. Please note this could take up to 3 days to process.

So there are obviously fees, but for the life of me, I could not find out what they were on the website.
When you look at the "advantages" they offer, I am even less impressed.
I don't know why you need their assistance to set up automatic deductions for rent - you can do that through your bank.
They talk about "worlds best practice" security so the agents and tennants details are secure.
Well they are even more secure if you don't give those details to a third party.

I would need a lot more info before giving them any of my money.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 2 2021, 10:17 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Think it may be all over.
Most of the silver plays have now come back.
The main issue is that the biggest manipulator (i.e. shorter) of the silver market, J.P. Morgan, has almost unlimited supplies of Silver at its disposal to satisfy the short squeeze. People can buy the rights for delivery at high prices, and JPM can deliver, and make a squillion bucks in the process.
While the CFTC allows the big boys to write contracts for tens of times the global supply, they will win.
And I cant see that changing anytime soon.
There is suspicion that either the Fed or the Treasury or both are the counterparty to so many of these knock the price down contracts.
This allows the bastards at JPM to put their hands on their hearts and say that they do not engage in creation of contracts to control the price, but that every contract they enter into is for a "customer". And it allows the FED/Treasury to control prices in a so called free market. If the people thought that Gold and or silver were going up due to inflationary pressures, it might things intolerable for the FED/Treasruy.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 2 2021, 08:58 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Yeah well, out of the cities we have such shit roads that most rice burners fall apart in no time.
Still wouldn't mind having an electric truck, but it would need some more range than whats on offer right now.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 2 2021, 07:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

The spot price for silver in AUD this morning is $37.25.
However, if you check with OZ bullion companies, they are quoting much higher retail figures.
For instance, ABC bullion quotes a 10OZ bar at $433.530, oor 43.30 per ounce, assuming you can get some.
There is a shortage of smaller coins. small bars etc at the physical. so it is adding a $6 premium to the spot price for retail.
This shortage is not demonstrated in the larger Physical bars- 1 kg or 1/2 kg, at least not yet.
The way people are buying physical in big quantities might suggest large investment grade bars will become in short supply.
The mount of paper trades in silver far outweighs annual production, so a little bit of momentum can swing it either way.
Might be some run in Silver yet!
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 08:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

From Unsealed 4X4
QUOTE
General Motors in the U.S. has just announced it will scrap petrol- and diesel-powered Silverado models before 2035 in a move to make the company carbon neutral by 2040.
General Motors (GM) has become the first big U.S. vehicle manufacturer to effectively scrap fossil-fuelled vehicles such as the Silverado 1500, confirming overnight that it is making the move to electric vehicles only, in its car, SUV and truck (light-duty) markets. According to a report in the Washington Post, GM has confirmed this will happen before 2035, making the company the next major auto manufacturer to join the likes of Toyota with a carbon-neutral standpoint by putting an end to fossil-fuelled vehicles by that year.

A GM executive, who asked for anonymity to describe details of the GM shift, said that the company would spend $US27 billion on electric vehicles and associated products between 2020 and 2025, outstripping spending on conventional gasoline and diesel cars. That figure includes refurbishing factories and investing in battery production in conjunction with LG Chem, a South Korean battery maker.


The fine print might be interesting. They have not said they will phase out ICE's all together. They still have the HD and large truck division which might still be populated by ICE's after that date. It just means they will have to purchase carbon credits, or maybe plant trees where the staff car park used to be.

I wonder whether RAM trucks and Ford (Ranger, F150-250-350-450) will follow suit.
They might just decide to keep them running to satisfy the need of all those redneck farm boys in the mid west.
mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 08:14 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Seeing as I only paid 12 for them barely a week ago, getting 18 on the open match was fine by me.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 01:10 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Obviously needs more practice, does not seem to be very good at it!
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 10:07 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Well, talk bout a rush.
TMZ, ARD and half my SVL all taken out on the match on the open.
Still got the cooking show ones, reckon there might still be more in them yet.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 10:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Gold sliding quietly up in AUD.
Now firmly entrenched above the 2400 handle.
I have started rotating out of my silver stocks back into gold.
Most of the gold stocks I am interested in actually produce gold, whereas most of the silver ones were speccies that didn't produce much.
ALK, SBM, RRS are my preferred ones this time around.
Will add a new one when SAR merges with NST.
SAR going to issue a special divvy before the merger, so pretty happy with that.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 09:50 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Well that didn't last long.
Taken out at the open again.
SIlver stocks very kind to me today.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 09:49 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Looks like the money has been made on LKE.
People rotating out of Lithium into silver.
REMS also falling out of favour.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 08:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Kinda Surprised that no one has a made a post on this one in over 5 years.
As a maker of vehicle parts, I would have thought it would be up there with ARB in terms of popularity.
Used car prices have gone up, more people driving instead of taking Public Transport, more people holidaying at home.\
All of the above should have given it a bit of a boost, but its still sort of muddling along at the 12$ mark.
PE is still a bit high for my liking, but would probably did my toe in if it got below 10.50.
Divvy yield not bad for us older retired blokes and blokesses.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 08:16 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Some big vols of buying lined up on TMZ this morning.
May be a very short lived investment for me if gets to 18.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 08:13 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

I recently bought into MCP as a longer term dividend investment.
Like most stocks , it got crunched in the March covid fall out, falling by over 50%, but then recovered almost all of it shortly after.
However, in December, the relatively poor results from the Chinese singles day, saw the company downgrade its indicative earnings by 30%.
The stock was crunched back below those March lows.
On a PE of only 9, and a grossed up divvy of 8%, it still looked fairly attractive.
Recent announcements that its main drivers in OZ Dr Lewins products are ahead of last year, so a recovery may well be on the cards.
The shift to a more online environment from retail stores (was a big seller in the Pharmacy), and thus ability to move smoothly into international markets should underpin a recovery.
Not a recommendation, merely an observation.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Feb 1 2021, 07:48 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

MKR quarterly out.
Makes for some significantly good reading.
1. Poised to become the biggest primary silver producer in OZ starting mid 2021. Given the millenial keybooard warriors call to push the silver price up, this would be a positive.
2, Sold 3600 ounces of gold at an average price 150 bucks above the current spot price. (Has zero hedging).
3. Current trends suggest full year production an cash income will be well ahead of the IPO forecasts from June 2020.
4. Recent in fill drilling has extended the Mount Boppy resource by 20%, with further below level drilling to increase it further.
All in all, a pretty good result.
Hope to see a spike today.
Mick
  Forum: By Share Code

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2021, 04:23 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

What a laugh, Goldman Sachs reckons the whole market could crash!. Its ok for them to rig the market and screw everyone else, but if some bunch of Amateurs do it, its bad news.
b
QUOTE
"Unsustainable excess in one small part of the market has the potential to tip a row of dominoes and create broader turmoil.
Pockets of the market have recently appeared to demonstrate investor behavior consistent with bubble-like sentiment,” the team wrote. “But these excesses present low systemic risk to the broader market given their modest share of market cap.”"


Others think that its a bit of storm in a teacup.
From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
This is a big deal to the shorting community, but to the other 99% of the financial world, nobody gives a shit.

As much as young people on the internet like to imagine this as an epic, David vs Goliath, Wall Street vs Main Street showdown for the history books; from a bird's eye view its actually just a brief dumpster fire where a couple hedge funds lost their shirts betting on one little small cap stock. It has happened before, and it will happen again.

In 6 months, nobody will remember or care, except that (maybe) it will become more difficult for retail investors to trade options.

And not because the greedy hedge fund oligarchs forced the SEC to crack down on retail investors.

But rather because, when this is all said and done, there is going to be a black hole where most of these retail investors' brokerage accounts used to be, and the SEC and brokerage community will be lambasted for failing to protect unsophisticated investors from a bubble.

I have been monitoring the WSB threads, and while the WSB veterans know that they're making a suicide charge for the memes, they have brought thousands of naive, new investors with them - who predominantly think that they're going to somehow come out on top, not realizing that they're cannon fodder for the more savvy WSB users to exit with gains.


Each of them has their own agenda, and tailor their response to suit.

Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2021, 12:15 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Maybe the OZ govt could set up its own equivalent of FB, Twitter or instagram.
The biggest expenses would be in setting up the data centres.
Forget about apple, not in a million years could we develop and manufacture a phone that gets even close to apples functionality.
Mick
  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2021, 07:46 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

House buyers might need to shift to Denmark.
FromBloombergs

QUOTE
The country with the longest history of negative central bank rates is offering homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero.

Customers at the Danish home-finance unit of Nordea Bank Abp can, as of Tuesday, get the mortgages, which will carry a lower coupon than benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasuries. At least two other banks have since said they’ll do the same.


I sort of scratches me head as to where they get the capital to lend.
I mean, why on earth would you put your money into a bank when you have to pay for the priviledge of keeping it there??
Mick

  Forum: Off Topic Chat

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2021, 07:42 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Following on from the stunning short position obliteration activity in GME on wall street, there is some talk that Silver may follow in the same direction.
From Zero Hedge

QUOTE
While all eyes have been focused on GameStop and a handful of other heavily-shorted stocks as they exploded higher under continuous fire from WallStreetBets traders igniting a short-squeeze coinciding with a gamma-squeeze, the last few days saw another asset suddenly get in the crosshairs of the 'Reddit-Raiders' - Silver.

On Thursday, we asked "Is The Reddit Rebellion About To Descend On The Precious Metals Market?" ... One WallStreetBets user (jjalj30) posted the following last night:

Silver Bullion Market is one of the most manipulated on earth. Any short squeeze in silver paper shorts would be EPIC. We know billion banks are manipulating gold and silver to cover real inflation.

Both the industrial case and monetary case, debt printing has never been more favorable for the No. 1 inflation hedge Silver.

Inflation adjusted Silver should be at 1000$ instead of 25$. Link to post removed by mods.

Why not squeeze $SLV to real physical price.

Think about the Gainz. If you don't care about the gains, think about the banks like JP MORGAN you'd be destroying along the way.

...
Tldr- Corner the market. GV thinks its possible to squeeze $SLV, FUCK AFTER SEEING $AG AND $GME EVEN I THINK WE CAN DO IT. BUY $SLV GO ALL IN TH GAINZ WILL BE UNLIMITED. DEMAND PHYSICAL IF YOU CAN. FUCK THE BANKS.
Disclaimer: This is not Financial advice. I am not a financial services professional. This is my personal opinion and speculation as an uneducated and uninformed person.

...and judging by the unprecedented flows into the Silver ETF (SLV) they just got started...
SLV saw inflows of almost one billion dollars on Friday, almost double the previous record inflow for this 15 year-old ETF.

The link to the chart is HERE
The rest of the rather long article goes on to quote some of the reddit users and the call to arms of the next big squeese.
I guess this explains the nearly $ increase in Silver prices since last Thursday.
The problem with Reddit etc, is that its anonymous, could just as easily be the same con men and spivs that inhabit the hedge funds pretending to be the milenial warriors sucking money out of the unsuspecting.
I hope that indeed this is another real short squeeze and that they succeed for two reasons.
1. I will benefit financially is a significant way.
2. It will be another dagger into the cold hearts of the greedy instos.
Mick
  Forum: Macro Factors

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 31 2021, 07:10 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Terry McRann adds a little Tax background to the short selling saga in Australia,
From the Weelend OZ
QUOTE
As with most implosions on Wall Street — think Bernie Madoff, think Lehman Bros, indeed think the whole goddamned GFC — there’s always major components of market and regulatory failure and just good-old fashioned stupidity. The greed, of course, is taken as read.

It seems clear that the basic rules of shorting were ignored. It appears that over 100 per cent, perhaps as much as 150 per cent, of GameStop was sold.

This means there’s been naked short-selling — when you sell a stock without having borrowed scrip — as you self-evidently cannot borrow more than 100 per cent of a company’s issued stock, and naked short-selling is illegal, even on Wall Street.

Apart from anything else, this “over-shorting” superchargers the power of counter-buying, as it means there’ll be buyers desperately trying to buy well over 100 per cent of a stock. This in turn was instantly leveraged into even more buying power because of the digital dynamics.

We saw exactly the same thing happen in Australia nearly 50 years ago, in a much more primitive (both regulatory and operational) context when shorters sold close to 150 per cent of the stock in a penny-dreadful called Antimony Nickel. It led to the banning of naked short-selling, but so-called “covered” short-selling is allowed. This is where the seller borrows the stock from an institution.

Except the stock isn’t borrowed. It is not well known — and those, seemingly few, who do know don’t want to talk about it for obvious financial self-interest — but short-selling is only possible in Australia because in 1990 the (Hawke Labor) government specially changed the Tax Act.

When you sell a share, you have to be able to deliver title in that share to the buyer; and you can only do that if you “own” the share. You can’t sell a “borrowed” share on the ASX; and a short-seller doesn’t. They sell a share they have acquired from an insto — albeit in a complicated “form” contract where they are obliged to sell it back. But there’s the problem: the insto has disposed of the share to the short-seller; it has disposed of an asset and has thereby triggered a tax event.

Enter the — happy to scratch the big end of town’s collective backs — government to change the Tax Act. So when an insto disposes of a share under a buyback contract, it is generously and uniquely deemed not to have disposed of the share. Thus, apart from anything else, is how we get a Tax Act passing 100,000 pages.


When it comes to Governments, even ones that are generally considered at the better end of the spectrum, ya always gotta look after your mates.
People with lots money always have influence and power.
Bad luck about the ret of the citizens.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

mullokintyre
Posted on: Jan 30 2021, 09:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 3,343

Ok, get ready for a rocky time.
Has Robinhood become the new Lehman bros?
From Zero Hedge
QUOTE
Something bad is about to go down at Robinhood.

One day after the company drew down on its bank lines and obtain a $1 billion rescue capital investment, the company found itself in lockdown mode, allowing just a handful of shares to be bought at a time, effectively shutting down in all but name (it couldn't risk another day of furious public outcry and massive client departures if it blocked trading completely).

However, just before the close, things got downright surreal when in a blog post the broker - which should probably change its name from Robinhood to Suit - made a shocking announcement: going forward, customers will be subject to maximum aggregate limits in 51 securities of which 14 are capped at position limits of just 5 shares, while allowing total holdings in 36 securities to be just one share!

In other words, as of this moment, no client is allowed to one more than 1 share in names like GME, AMC, AG, BBBY, BYND, WKHS and many others. Even boring, low vol names like GM and SBUX are limited to just one share.

This is what the blog post said:

"The table below shows the maximum number of shares and options contracts to which you can increase your positions. Please note that these are aggregate limits for each security and not per-order limits, and include shares and options contracts that you already hold. These limits may be subject to change throughout the day."
Why is this happening? The most likely reason is that between DTC, clearinghouses and other regulatory entities, Robinhood was found to be in another capital deficiency position - even with the billions raised overnight - and it is being forced to delever.

This likely means that Robinhood is as of this moment, scrambling to obtain even more capital, although we somehow doubt it will be just as easy to "take from the rich" as it was late last night especially since the client exodus is surely accelerating.

It also means that we may have to have another "Lehman Weekend" situation on our hands, only this time it will be a "Robinhood Weekend", and an urgent acquisition from a strategic buyer may be required to prevent the worst case outcome. We only hope that the billions in funds held in custody for clients is segregated should the company collapse (pinging Jon Corzine here).

In any case, expect a lot of Robinhood related news over the weekend.And as a postscript, while we expect that the turmoil will be contained at Robinhood, whether in the form of new capital infusion, a takeover, or bankruptcy, there is the possibility that the liqudity shortfall goes as far as the clearinghouses. What happens then?

This will not end well.
It will make the little rebellion in the Capitol buildings look like a kindergarten. There are literally millions of Robinhooders, and they won't be happy.
Mick
  Forum: Investment Discussion

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