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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: May 20 2021, 09:41 AM
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Indices remained under pressure for a third session
Wall Street was heading towards its third day of declines, although the declines at their heaviest just after the open before they pared losses throughout the session. The Nasdaq 100 etched in a small 0.15% gain, the Dow Jones was down -0.48%, the S&P 500 fell -0.29% whilst the Russell 2000 took a -0.78% hit. The losses were heavier in Europe, with the Euro STOXX 50 leading the declines by -1.6%, the DAX falling -1.55% and the CAC closing -1.2% lower. The FTSE fell by -0.94% to a four-day low.

We were looking for shorting opportunities on the ASX during its three-day pullback and it certainly did not disappoint. The ASX 200 met and blew past our bearish wedge target, finding support just above the 6905 low. With 80% of stocks below their 20-day eMA it points towards a near-term sentiment extreme and minor bounce, and futures are pointing towards a higher open around 6935. But, given the strength of yesterday’s bearish bar, we are again on the lookout for another sign of weakness but this time between the 6966 – 7000 zone. A break above 7,000 invalidates the bearish bias.

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on the fence , as things still murky !! imho



 
early birds
post Posted: May 20 2021, 02:29 AM
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As mentioned last evening, the index’s recent false breakout, quick drop, false breakdown, subsequent bounce and lack of upside follow through, all has created a sloppy looking chart over the last seven days of trading.
All eyes will be on the 50 Day MA again (4,076). Prior to last week, it was successfully tested six times since the March’20 lows.

If we look more closely, it’s clear that three of those times, the INITIAL test was temporary: In September, October and late Feb/ early March, the SPX subsequently undercut the 50 Day MA before true demand reappeared.

Those points lined up with times when the SPX got close to (or breached) the long-term trading channel, too.

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best thing to deal with SPX is to stay aside. imho.

asx200 , both bulls and bears look at 6900. 6875 would be stops for the bulls if one try to have long bet. sit on the fence is the safer way imho

 
early birds
post Posted: May 19 2021, 09:42 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 18 2021, 09:44 AM

one day movement that changed chart for traders
asx200 future is at 6988, my stoploss point. better stay on the fence today, these yo--yo action only suitable for intra--day traders.

for SPX

The SPX’s bearish formation last week (and subsequent support break) pushed the Bear Oscillator to 3, but with its downside target being negated on Friday, the indicator remains in the Tame Zone (0-3).

Three Demark Buy Signals have triggered for ARKK since May 4th. None have mattered yet, but it suggests the selloff could be getting washed out short-term. The issue, of course, is that a rally from here would just put it back to its former breakdown point and its 200-Day MA: more fodder for the bears.

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that is before the US market bell, now , i think marketers got bit scared !!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 18 2021, 09:44 AM
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Among the acute turns and big swings last week, one of the most interesting was that the SPX logged two 1% losses and two 1% gains over the five trading sessions.

While that may seem rare, we’ve now seen four +/-1% moves in a calendar week eight times since the March’20 lows. Of the prior seven, the SPX was higher the next week five times (71% win rate).


Of those previous seven, the SPX finished lower three times DURING the week that it logged at least four 1% absolute moves (like last week). But the NEXT week, the index was higher each of those times.

Zooming out, as is clear on the chart below, none led to major downturns either. This is obvious knowing what has transpired over the last 15 months, but noteworthy, nonetheless.
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so, all is well for the bulls for SPX!!

asx200 holding above 7000, and had shake out action for it's future market last night, it dipped to low of 6992, then went all the way back to 7032 close. looks promising for the bulls today
i would go long at 7025ish with stops at 7010 target 7088 for two days.



 
early birds
post Posted: May 17 2021, 10:03 AM
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A day after enduring its first 1% decline in nearly two months, the SPX logged its first 1% gain in almost three weeks. This clearly has changed the boring feel that we had grown accustomed to since April began



2

The head-fake above 4,220 negated a price target north of 4,300.



3
Yesterday’s bounce back got close to violating the recent downside break, too. And if the early strength holds through the close today, the 4,010-downside objective will be no longer, as well.



4

So far, 2021 has been DEFINED by whipsaw-like trading. In fact, if the most recent breakdown fails to achieve its target, it will be the third unsuccessful bearish formation. We’ve seen three failed bullish patterns, too.



5

In fact, only one breakout (or breakdown) actually played out – the early April edition.



6

If the first four and half months are any indication for the rest of the year, then we could be in for more of the same. More volatile back and forth movement.

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SPX still in the uptrend ,

but my faith in asx200 has been shaken , like to see asx200 to stay above 7000 by the closing bell today!! unsure.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: May 14 2021, 08:41 AM
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After yesterday, a handful of NDX indicators have reached extreme lows, which suggests a near term Tech-led bounce attempt could be imminent.

Only 14% of the NDX components are trading above their 20 Day MAs. It last got close to 10% threshold near the March’21 lows.

Over 40% of NDX stocks are trading BELOW their respective Lower Bollinger Bands, too. That’s the highest % since March, 2020. It has gotten worse than this over the last few years at times, but not often.

The NDX, itself, is oversold vs. its Bollinger Bands, as depicted by the %B indicator. A short-term bounce resulted after each prior occurrence over the last three years. Again, during the most intense corrections/crashes of 2018 and 2020, this led to more pain before THE low was etched.

The NDX’s 14-Day RSI dropped to 34, which was the indicator’s low from March 5th, too. The other sell off over the last 12 months were never strong enough to push the indicator UNDER 30.

The NDX/SPX ratio now is oversold again for the first time since the March’21 lows. Back then, the indicator got down to 20 – the lowest since 1990

The NDX’s 7.8% drawdown, is NOT extreme compared to recent pullbacks. Thus, we’ll have to see how traders treat the next mean reverting move, whether it happens today or not.
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so judge by last night's action, Daq had rebound. whether it is dead cat, or something meaningful have to see a good follow on action.

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Regarding, the SPX, the bearish target (4,010) will remain in play as long as the breakdown zone isn’t violated. Let’s recall that we’ve only seen ONE successful bearish pattern play out since July, 2020.

The pullback finally has shaken the SPX loose from the top of its trading channel. The drop has put it back in the middle of the pattern. In other words, the damage has been contained.

The drawdown is over 4%, which now is more in line with recent drops.
Using the March lows as the starting point, the SPX got close to the 38.2% retracement yesterday. and, of course, its 50 Day MA.

=====================

SPX had good rebound as well , this index looks a lot stronger than others!!

for asx200

i'd use same strategy as yesterday .


 


early birds
post Posted: May 13 2021, 09:24 AM
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US CPI jumped 4.2% YoY ahead of the 3.6% forecast. Stocks drop as investors anticipate an earlier move by the Fed.

Rising inflation concerns have been stalking the market all week. Today’s CPI data confirmed the markets’ fear that inflation is roaring higher.

US CPI for April came in at 4.2%, well ahead of the 3.6% forecast and up from 2.6% in March. On a monthly basis inflation surged 0.8% versus 0.2% expected and up from 0.6% last month.

Core inflation also shot higher 3% up from 1.6% in March.

The fact that the US Dollar surged and tech look set to take a hit suggests the market it pricing in a sooner move by the Fed to tighten policy. There is still another inflation print due before the Fed trade decision in June, and another jobs report.

However given surging inflation and commodity price the Fed may have to reconsider how transitory it believes inflation will be.

It’s only Wednesday and the tech heavy Nasdaq will want to be drawing a line under this week. After diving -2.5% at the start of the week, the Nadsaq futures are down a further 1.2% today after the inflation data, taking the hardest hit.

=====================
now most of central banks get what they wished for----INFLATION.
but the problem is ----when the beast coming in , it will be like wild fire storm ---fast furious, as all of them pumped in wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much paper cash into eco..

there is a english phrase, "be careful what you wish for"" is that right triage???

asx200 keep eye on 7000 the key level and stops will be at 6988ish if one wants to go long for the index.
by the way WBC NAB will be x--divy today!!



 
early birds
post Posted: May 12 2021, 11:00 AM
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i had few info, but just too busy with other things.

stay out of market if one can sit on the sideline. if still want to investing , might look at commodity related stocks!!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 11 2021, 09:46 AM
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Ominous Signs on the Nasdaq 100
As per usual, it was technology and growth stocks which were the worst hit under the ‘inflationary fears’ scenario. The Nasdaq 100 was down -2.6% and sent several worrying signals to bulls. Closing beneath its 50-day eMA, yesterday’s bearish engulfing candle had no upper or lower wick (meaning it opened at the high and closed at the low of the day) and formed part of a three-bar bearish reversal formation (Evening Star Reversal). Given it now forms part of a lower high, the bias remains bearish beneath 13,815.

The Russell 2000 growth index fell -3.46% and the S&P 500 fell from its record high and closed on its 10-day eMA. The Dow Jones hit (and traded slightly beyond) our 35,000 target before giving back gains to close slightly lower, forming a bearish pinbar and warning of exhaustion at its record high.

European equities were mostly flat, with the Euro STOXX 600 index rising just 0.03%. The DAX was also flat yet held above Friday’s low, so the bullish bias outlined in yesterday’s video remains intact.

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still playing that "sell in May" card!! ohmy.gif


asx200 future looked grim after it just closed at all time high!! really thought it will keeps march higher , blush.gif

stay put for today as picture gets really confused!!!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 10 2021, 08:50 AM
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It was a mixed picture on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closing to at a record high, the Russel 2000 closing flat for the week yet finding support above its 10-week eMA for a fifth consecutive week, and the Nasdaq 100 closing at a four week low yet above its 10-week eMA.

The ASX 200 is making hard work of breaking above 7,100. Given May is usually a bearish month for the index, and that bulls are struggling to take full control, we are mindful of its potential to roll over the coming week/s. Yet defining a bearish entry point is not easy either, with so many overlapping candles at these highs. That said, we would consider a daily close beneath 6993 as a sign that the market has topped, and a daily close above 7100 a sign that perhaps this bull trend still has legs.

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after "shocking" US NFP [ not shock to me] things have little change
not giving up asx200 to march all time high yet!!



 
 


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