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DoktorBen
Posted on: Dec 19 2019, 05:54 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

They calculated an fair value around 40 AUD - about 8:20 is the graphic.
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 04:03 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

I am not hyperventilating in regards to tanning. Just saying that there are different markets and I do not read that Clinuvel does aim on poeple who LIKE to tan. They aim on people who NEED to tan! and even this is not correct. They fokus on repairing a part of your body and tanning will be a sideeffect - listed in package leaflet.

your mentioned tanning market will be just a small piece in the dna-repair space.

But may I am wrong...
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 05:09 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

You are talking about tanning... Clinuvel ist talking about medical application.
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 04:23 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

Lets dream a bit or just share some relevant numbers...

----
<h3 class="page_heading">How common is skin cancer?</h3>
The incidence of both non-melanoma and melanoma skin cancers has been increasing over the past decades. Currently, between 2 and 3 million non-melanoma skin cancers and 132,000 melanoma skin cancers occur globally each year. One in every three cancers diagnosed is a skin cancer and, according to Skin Cancer Foundation Statistics, one in every five Americans will develop skin cancer in their lifetime.

As ozone levels are depleted, the atmosphere loses more and more of its protective filter function and more solar UV radiation reaches the Earth's surface. It is estimated that a 10 per cent decrease in ozone levels will result in an additional 300,000 non-melanoma and 4,500 melanoma skin cancer cases. The global incidence of melanoma continues to increase �" however, the main factors that predispose to the development of melanoma seem to be connected with recreational exposure to the sun and a history of sunburn. These factors lie within each individual's own responsibility.

Source: https://www.who.int/uv/faq/skincancer/en/index1.html

----

May current thoughts are (I love the 80/20 Pareto principle!):
We have around 7.591.541.000 Humans on our planet.
Lets say the products could have impact to 20% of the population: 1.518.308.200
and ho many of them are living in a country which could afford a creme and/or buy cosmetics (US/Europe/Asia): 303.661.630
okay - not everbody say i will need such a product - 20%: 60.732.328
okay okay... we have a look at another 80/20: who is willing to pay for DNA Skin Repair? 12.146.465

how much can we charge for the product? $ 200 per year? "Good" Sunmilk costs 30...
Sales around - $2.429.293.120,00

weirdsmiley.gif

Okay - was just a joke - who has other numbers? But I don't think so unrealistic the market potential...
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Nov 21 2019, 02:00 AM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

My takeaway:
- Clinuvel will proceed with the Vitiligo Pipeline
- Yes there are other indications as well
- The DNA-Repair will be our big thing (and not Vitilio)
- Relevant patents are registered already

If this is really the case and this is in conjunction with the salary targets from PW. Please go ahead and do whatever is needed to get this done!

With the global emergence of interest in melanocortins, as well as our data generated in patients, we now have a final and principal target left to fulfil to put Australian-based CLINUVEL on a wider global map: It will be the first company to provide evidence that its technology positively affects DNA damage repair caused by UV-radiation,as systemic photoprotection and repigmentation has been proven. The scientific and commercial excitement could only be translated into future commercial reality if and when the FDA would approve SCENESSE®.
I could wait for some more years.... But I assume that if Clinuvel will announce first success in the near future to this topic - nobody of us will be a shareholder any more... Big Pharma opens the wallet and slurp... Reason will be Vitiligo or DNA-Repair. When Vitiligo it will be cheaper... ;-)
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Nov 20 2019, 11:30 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

well I read the same:
STRATEGY II: ALPHA-MSH TO DATE –SCENESSE®IN APPLICATION
The final question is: what role do alpha-MSH or SCENESSE® play in the mitigation, abrogation and prevention of actinic damage leading to increased skin cancer risk? Without reading now the precise mechanism of alpha-MSH and its role, we share with you the evidence to date,provided by the use of SCENESSE®in the first of two steps, in demonstrating that it addresses the risk factors to the genesis of skin cancers:

1.reducing the chances of sunburn in Caucasians (apoptosis);
2.reducing photo products following damage from UV-radiation; and3.increasing DNA reparative efficiency.

The missing link for CLINUVEL to provide through the use of SCENESSE® – and which would have had limited or no value without the acknowledgement of the technology and its scientific data by the most recent FDA approval – is to demonstrate in 20 healthy human subjects and six genetically affected patients (expressed in 104 skin biopsies) that the treatment positively affects photoproducts and DNA repair. CLINUVEL is awaiting ethics approvals before we are allowed to start these smaller trials.These new data,together with the existing label of systemic melanogenesis and systemic photoprotection, are of value to CLINUVELandto its follow-on melanocortin products,and are the principal reason why most of management want to see the endgame of this Company.
....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ

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DoktorBen
Posted on: May 10 2019, 10:37 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

Agree.
Note 1:

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image


 
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Apr 10 2019, 07:18 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

agree - We will only get something to read and interpret in the next newsletter.
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Apr 9 2019, 07:28 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

well - the list hasn't changed much in a year. Hopefully they really press the pedal to the metal as soon as we have the FDA signoff...

However - "Label extension Rxfrom 4 to 6 doses" in europe is missing in your list.
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 04:48 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

As long as they pay me the "punishment fee" for the take-over.... devilsmiley.gif
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Jul 13 2018, 06:43 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

well... actually the world is removing money from emerging markets...
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Jun 7 2018, 06:35 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

To clarify here:

F. Homm says since his recommendation in 2012 in his book "rogue financier" or the german title "Kopf Geld Jagt" Clinuvel did well till now - 12 AUD or 1000%. But he still recommend Clinuvel with the possibility for another multiple of 10 till 30 (between 120 and 360 AUD).

---

Who get the additional 89.200 shares and for what? Does anybody know that now?
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DoktorBen
Posted on: May 24 2018, 05:42 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

Okay - when Clinuvel make the decision to research and develop in the EPP direction... onebody had an idea of the outcome years later. But you need now money for all thoses steps and ask me as an investor:

"I need 200 Million for the next 10 years for research and development - approval for the drug not guaranteed. Could you give me 200 Million and I will give you 220 Million in 10 years back?"

Mr. Market will say: No - I will give you 200 Million but you will give me at least 2 billion back in case you have success. I have to compensate my other investments with unknown outcome...

And yes - initial research was not done and founded by the company - but show me the government and country who is willing to pay for unlimited research - development and distribution?
The capitalism has won...
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DoktorBen
Posted on: May 24 2018, 04:39 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

What is your fair price for the drug?

When you sell such an drug for just few hundred/thousand of patients for few dollars - all biotech companys will immediately stop their research as no investor will spend/bet some money.

I agree - if you just look at the only one biotech company itself, the price of the drug and future options - wow what an return for the company and shareholders. But what about the other 99 companys and their research and trails going bankrupt and ending in nirvana? The market must provide the option to have an massive return otherwise no one will do and invest in research for small groups...

The problem is not with EU... It is with the insurance companys (public or private) and about budget, money, profit and laws. The EMA already said - yes sell it but control the rollout and distribution it in case your drug have some unknown side effects. Now you have to search for someone who will pay it - the patients themself could not afford it even if you sell it for half of the price...
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 05:21 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

Good evening/morning...

Well - I have 2 findings here...

First - FDA Validation could start after CUV send the "2nd Annual Report EMA –2017 analyses" together with "2017-18 - Safety Data".
---
With some pride and utmost modesty, we can state that the second PASS Annual Report and latest six-monthly Periodic Safety Update Report have both been submitted to the European Medicines Agency (EMA).
-
The EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) is issuing its Joint Assessment Report between 27 March and 05 April, after which time the safety dossier update will be complete.
---
So we have date where we expect the start of the FDA validation phase.

Other important point - not for now - not for next year but for the next decade:

Page 5 - REPOSITIONING AND EXPANSION

---
Our teams are in preparation to initiate a pilot study exploring the use of SCENESSE ® in a new indication, whereby the support of the medical community will be required for the use of the drug in a new domain.
---

Looks like they do a follow up on the results from the Münster Study results.
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DoktorBen
Posted on: Feb 22 2018, 03:07 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

That sounds good!

Also this is from October 2017? Then I would say Clinuvel really initiated last year the approval - but not as we understand - send the hole application... more like please set our product on the VIP list for next year...?

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DoktorBen
Posted on: Dec 20 2017, 05:36 PM


Group: Member
Posts: 17

Hello,

the noizz.de article is more or less boring. It just another story of an EPP patient while mentioning the issue we have with the EPP centers. The traveling every two months from Germany to Switzerland as they have an "approved/licensed" EPP center.

And F. Homm promised to do an update every six months (+/- 2) on Clinuvel. In the Video he talks about his target - 42AUD and then do some maths around numbers and metrics.

I cant transcript the hole video but here are my notes translated:

EPP expected cashflow 60Million - 47Million shares - 350Million Marketcap = 5.6 times Cashflow /his conclusion: shareprice already to low compared to other (Thyssen, Gold Mines and others)
+ on mid-term (2-4Years):
Vitiligo - 1.2 Million treatments - possible 1-2-3-4Billion sales - sales=(more or less)revenue

+ a quick brainstorming about the technology and the possibility in regards to other diseases.

summary
+ current shareprice in relation the (expected) european sales is to low
+ expected US market goes on top
+ mid-term Vitiligo
+ technology

why is the shareprice so low?
* Clinuvel did a poor IR the last 5 years
* no professional coverage from analysts
* as long as they are still in the pricing negotiation phase and Clinuvel would not like to be on the radar
* F.Homm expect twice the cashflow as PWolgen is underpromise and will overdeliver as he see him as a very good CEO
* Lack of EPP centers

last but not least: Vallauris is working on "simplified" Vitiligo creams. if this is working he expect a complete new valuation.

win/loss ratio = 20:1 (40AUD vs 2.5 AUD) - there is no speculation - keep calm - accumulate - send an email to get his research-paper and tell how many shares you have - in 6 (+/- months) he will tell you/us what he will do with the information about the sharecount.
between april - august he will do an update.

other generic risks...
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