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NCZ, NEW CENTURY RESOURCES LIMITED
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 14 2019, 07:19 PM
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Perhaps Tolga Kumova should stop goading shorters, like John Hempton/Bronte Capital, to short more - "happy to give you borrow". He reckons "zinc price about to get squeezed like lemon on oysters" He could be right about "squeezed" but maybe not in the way he hopes sadsmiley02.gif https://twitter.com/KumovaTolga/status/1189000208526409728

Hidden zinc stocks cloud upcoming surge in supply
Eric Onstad
extracts
QUOTE
LONDON (Reuters) - Hidden zinc inventories are helping to keep stocks low in exchange-approved warehouses and prop up prices, but increasing production is due to hit the market in coming months.



QUOTE
Rising output at new mines will eventually find its way to the market and pressure benchmark prices, according to consultancy CRU.

Vanessa Davidson, director of base metals research at CRU, told a presentation that about 900,000 tonnes of zinc were due to come online next year, boosting mine production by 7.3% to 13.37 million tonnes.

We see that the increase in supply next year is both extreme and significant... prices will need to fall significantly from where they are today in order to encourage more price-sensitive cutbacks of production,” Davidson said.


read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-z...y-idUSKBN1XN21B
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NCZ
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
alonso
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 11:36 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 3 2019, 11:13 AM

All in all then I'm glad I took my medicine earlier on.

PS I'd say thanks for your posts but my Say Thanks hasn't worked for months/years?






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"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears this is true"

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Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 11:13 AM
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New Century gets a mention in this article
Zinc sentiment staring into the bear pit
Steve Stakiw – The Northern Miner | September 2, 2019
extract
QUOTE
The closure of three global marquee mines (Lisheen in Ireland, Brunswick in Canada and Century in Australia) between 2013 and 2016, as well as production cuts at some of Glencore’s (LON: GLEN) mines in 2016, precipitated significant tightness in the zinc concentrate supply market, and was the main catalyst of the metal’s 2016 to 2018 bull run. However, this has recently waned, with increasing concentrate supply coming online in 2018, as well as mine output growth anticipated over the next few years. This supply boost could erode the deficits and tip the balance of refined metal back into a surplus scenario this year.

According to TD Securities’ recent “Q2/2019 Preview Equity Research note,” zinc mine supply is increasing. “With a backdrop of weaker refined demand, mine supply growth has been increasing, with several large mines entering production, including Gamsberg (in South Africa) and Dugald River (in Australia),” the bank stated. “The restart of the Century operation (also in Australia) via reprocessing of mine tailings is also adding to supply. Wood Mackenzie is projecting year-over-year mine supply growth of 3.2% in 2019, and 6.7% in 2020. We expect that mine supply growth could turn negative by 2023, with lower prices disincentivizing new projects.”

Additionally, despite more than a decade of strong year-over-year Chinese mine production growth, output dipped from 2016 to 2018 due to more stringent environmental controls. But sentiment now leans back towards incremental production increases from Chinese mines. China is the world’s largest zinc miner, at a third of global supply. Scotiabank’s recent fundamental review of major commodities assumes 2.5%-per-year Chinese mine supply growth from 2019 to 2021.

Turning zinc concentrate from the mines into refined, industry-ready zinc falls on the smelters. While there was surplus global smelting capacity over most of the past several years, more environmental regulations in China over the past couple of years has contracted their capacity and muted refined output, although some modest growth is now modelled. This incremental increase in Chinese refining capacity, plus minor anticipated increases in Western capacity, could help push the refined zinc market into surplus over the next year.

Despite these modest smelter capacity increases, treatment charges (TC) charged by the smelters to the miners to refine their concentrate have gotten higher. Negotiated annually between the smelters and zinc producers, International Benchmark TCs rose from a multi-year low of $147 per tonne of zinc concentrate in 2018 to about $245 per tonne for 2019. Even more dramatic is the soaring increase in the spot TC market that has rallied from a low of $19 per tonne in early 2018 to a high of $275 per tonne earlier this year.

Unfortunately for miners, increasing concentrate supply has swung the advantage in favour of the smelters.


read more - https://www.mining.com/zinc-sentiment-stari...o-the-bear-pit/

total short positions as at 27/8/19 = 6.92%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ncz
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 22 2019, 10:26 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 21 2019, 07:57 PM

Official market notification received this morning. Will help short term but is deferring this debt going to play catch up down the track?.

Does NCZ need to find funds to cover future mine closure/rehabilitation and is the financial assurance bond provided by the previous owners MMG sufficient? Economic Rehabilitation is covered on the NCZ website - https://www.newcenturyresources.com/century-mine-project/
An interesting read - the Century Zinc Mine got a mention - Note the report written by Lock The Gate so could be biased - Mine Rehabilitationand Closure Cost J u l y 2 0 1 6 A Hidden Business Risk
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/lockt....pdf?1520385686

extract from today's announcement

QUOTE
“Since taking over the operation in 2017, New Century has focussed on enhancing
benefits for the local community, including Traditional Owners, local industry, the
Burke and Carpentaria Shires, and to Queensland more broadly.

The achievements of the New Century team to date have set the benchmark in
demonstration of the potential for economic mine rehabilitation in Australia. We
appreciate the Queensland Government’s strong support in highlighting how this
innovative model can successfully achieve sound mine rehabilitation practices for the
industry into the future.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190822/pdf/...q6b17n6sly4.pdf



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 21 2019, 07:57 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 14 2019, 08:37 PM

No official announcement from NCZ (that I could see) today but AFR are quoting

Palaszczuk backs New Century with royalty deferral
QUOTE
The Queensland government has given the operator of the Century zinc mine permission to defer payment of royalties for at least three years, in the first deployment of a controversial strategy to encourage development of remote resource basins.

QUOTE
Deferral of those payments are timely for the company, which is struggling through lower metal prices and the challenges of commissioning the equipment required to profitably extract the zinc, silver and lead contained in the tailings dam left at the mine by its former owner, MMG Limited.

read more - https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/palasz...20190821-p52je7

Looks like some in the know got the memo - SP up 7.55% - volume 25.9million. A late,after market close, large transaction recorded as follows
1 410 4:17:15 pm 28.5 24,621,463 $7,017,116 Crossed,Special Crossing >= T3 < T2

Macquarie borrowed 41.3 mil shares 9 August - returned 26.6mil borrowed stock on 15/8 - perhaps large late transaction is the balance of their total borrowed stock?
15-Aug-19 MBL Collateral Receive Return AUD 0.31 -26,130,000 FPO 26,130,000
15-Aug-19 MBL Collateral Receive Return AUD 0.31 -500,000 FPO 500,000

Total short positions as at 15/8/19 = 6.02%
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ncz
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 08:37 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 14 2019, 07:35 PM

QUOTE
recent SPP at 31c
- typo. Should read 33c



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 14 2019, 07:35 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 1 2019, 10:51 AM

QUOTE
Odd the company announcement did not mention Credit Suisse was doing the CR (unless I missed it). AFR reporting - Credit Suisse raising for zinc play New Century Resources https://www.afr.com/content/afr/street-talk/


I wonder when it was that Credit Suisse got the tap on the shoulder to do another CR? According to today's 603 they sold two large parcels - the first 5mil shares (at 44c) on 26 July and the second 16 mil shares (at 42c) on 29 July. NCZ called a TH on 1 August announcing the CR They became a substantial holder on 8 August taking up 13 mil and 37 mil shares in the recent SPP at 31c

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190814/pdf/...gsq800g5nkh.pdf

Macquarie also became a substantial holder on 9 August. Their 603 indicates they've been a seller for some time (since 11 April) and also a borrower. 41.3 mil shares appear to have been borrowed 9 August - "Collateral Received". They don't appear to have taken up any shares in the recent CR.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190814/pdf/...gw4bt8v4nq9.pdf

Total short positions as at 8th August 2019 = 6.19%. SP currently 31c
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=ncz
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 9 2019, 04:04 PM
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In Reply To: Marana's post @ Aug 9 2019, 03:35 PM

Another SYR



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
Marana
post Posted: Aug 9 2019, 03:35 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 9 2019, 03:09 PM

The last time i looked, this company has not yet issued a profit & loss statement however their quarterly cash-flow give the impression of making losses.



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blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 9 2019, 03:09 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 1 2019, 10:51 AM

Updated chart. SP now 30c currently up 7.14% but below the 33c SPP

Short positions also up - as at 5th August 2019 = 6.03%. Now sitting at #42 on Shortmans Top 100
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NCZ
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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