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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Yesterday, 08:23 AM
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With the SPX still close to its highs, last week’s price action hardly was damaging. All it did was put the index back near the middle of its two-month upward sloping trading channel.

The SPX’s Breadth only was slightly negative last week, which allowed the SPX’s Cumulative Adv-Dec Line to stay close to its highs. While countless other indicators suggest the market is overheated, the A-D line has been the most trustworthy of which to follow since last spring.
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SPX closed up last session , looks it gonna try that 3850 again . sorta think it will roll over at 3800-------it might turn out to be "wishful thinking" like i did many times before!! weirdsmiley.gif


for asx200 it showing supper bullish sign , if it can over come 6775 within two session then it open big upside space . shorts beware that level!!
i'm still long those defensive high yields names.



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jan 19 2021, 07:57 AM
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Well, looks like the tops in.
Dow bin struggling to make headway for aw hile now, dropped a bit last night.
The next big move is down.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Jan 15 2021, 08:10 AM
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Warning signs do persist:

One that's been with us for a while is the historically low equity put-call ratio. Many have pointed this out; let's be honest, it's hard to miss. Even smoothing it out via a short-term moving average can't hide how depressed the read on options activity has been since last June.

It made a new low in December, but that has yet to matter. In fact, the bounce from that point created a lower high. This, too, won't last... but that has been true seven for months now, and it has yet to change.

While we rely on the SPX's Cumulative-Advance Line for a tell on Breadth, we should keep tabs on the number of stocks making new 52 Week Highs, as well. Not surprisingly, the number has been moving higher as the SPX has gained ground.

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as bullish as SPX goes, bit of cautious here. if 3850 been hit and SPX still point to the upside, then next upside target will be at 3890ish, that is far i can see.

asx200 will follow US market higher at this stage!! target upside would be at 6850ish...imho think of banks [or those of high yields ] will do better in short term!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 13 2021, 08:28 AM
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The 10 Year Yield is s/t extended. Its six day rate of change now is +28%, which lines up with the best six day runs since late April. They all faded. The Yield's RSI is up to 78 as of this morning, too. That's the HIGHEST since November, 2016 (as yields were ripping post the 2016 Presidential Election).

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For the 10 Year Note, a Demark TD Combo Buy Signal has been triggered for the first time since April, 2018.

3
The TLT Bond ETF endured its sixth straight decline on Monday. It logged six consecutive losses twice in 2020: Its last 7 day losing streak happened in the period ending 4/26/16.

4
The TLT’s 14 Day RSI is near 27 now, as well, which obviously makes it oversold… that’s the lowest reading since 10/08/18.

5
While we're not expecting a major turning point in Bonds, the odds suggest the pace needs to slow over the near term. Once it does, we'll get a better idea of how willing traders are to return to the prevailing trend.

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all about 10 years yields ?? looks" risk on" again to me.
i know i0 years note is at oversold level, but i think pull back will be little if any. i for one won't go long for the medium term. only for the short term trading i guess!!

SPX ----think of 3850 in near term.

asx200, ---seems banks going for another leg of run up as aussie economy performed far better than feared !!

long banks / short big miners??? unsure.gif


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early birds
post Posted: Jan 10 2021, 08:35 AM
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Regarding the SPX, the 3,850 target is getting closer.
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i got out 3750 end of last year!!

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Japan
The Nikkei continues to garner demand. While extended short-term, the long term breakout shows what's really happening.
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keep eye on that market, looks bullish breakout will sustained !!

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asx200 refused to go down, so got to think of upside. if one long some stocks, keep it for a while i guess!!



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 7 2021, 07:54 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/...20210106-p56s6w

despite chaotic at white house SPX still be able to holds chunk of gain, so freaking amazing !!
this market is just so bullish , seems nothing can stop it.
expecting asx200 to follow wall street. swing trade for today, i won't commit longer term today, it's just too risk for me!! weirdsmiley.gif

keep eye on asx200 , think that 6725 might be as high as it can go [ personally i reckon it will peaked under 6710], down side [ roughly at 6650ish]



 


early birds
post Posted: Jan 6 2021, 08:20 AM
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https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/virus-...20210105-p56rzd
cool.gif

range for SPX [swing, 3657-----3756] as some TA studies. would be news driven today [tonight] as volume still thin.

for asx200, seems bullish than others, but as aud rallied last's session, that might put little pressure on the large stocks that affect index.
keep eye on 6675, then 6700 for the upside, and stops at 6625 for the longs for intra--day traders, imho



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 5 2021, 12:49 PM
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market had little pop up for this news
NYSE no longer plans to delist chinese teleco giants !! no sure they can against Trump's order?? unsure.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jan 5 2021, 08:51 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 4 2021, 10:19 AM

will asx200 follows US market ----going lower today??
as volume still thin, it could be the case as asx200 rallied up yesterday!! unsure.gif
keep eye on two levels, 6625, then 6600 for me!

saw people try to get out of US market last night to avoid 6th/jan potential chaos in US election results!!

from TA point of view market still in bullish trend but a lot of longer term indicators near or in overbought zoon.



 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 4 2021, 10:19 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jan 4 2021, 08:51 AM

QUOTE
ASX futures down 80 points or 1.2%

Huh?

The S&P/ASX200 has taken a lead from the Wall Street year end rally to climb 0.6 per cent higher in morning trade, with every sector except energy in the black.

The biggest contributors to the market by index weighting were Commonwealth Bank, Wesfarmers, and Fortescue Metals leading the 50 point rally. Tech giants Xero and Afterpay also opened higher, with Woolworths also enjoying a good day in anticipation of renewed lockdowns in Australia.

On the other side of the ledger, travel stocks Flight Centre, Webjet, and Corporate Travel were among the biggest losers, as the COVID19 spread grows globally. Financial administrator Link Holdings is down 10 per cent on news PEXA has pulled a $3 billion takeover offer for one of its operating units.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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