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EHE, ESTIA HEALTH LTD
nipper
post Posted: Nov 24 2016, 05:26 PM
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QUOTE
Aged care operator Estia Health has defended its business model after facing shareholders for the first time since a series of damaging earnings downgrades.

New chief executive Norah Barlow – an industry veteran appointed following the exit of predecessor Paul Gregerson in September after Estia stock had fallen 50 per cent – reaffirmed the company's current guidance at the annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday. That guidance, given last month, forecast underlying earnings before interest tax, deprecation and amortisation to be between $86 million and $90 million.

Even so, both occupancy and earnings are trending down. The October forecast itself was well down from the $105 million forecast less than two months previously. Estia is also in the midst of strategic review, undertaken by Macquarie Capital, that will look closely at the potential impact of government funding cuts to Estia's business.

"I would like to stress that so far, the review has shown that the overall Estia Health business is sound," Ms Barlow told investors.

While the announcement this year that $1.2 billion would be trimmed from the aged care sector affected other listed operators, Japara Healthcare and Regis Healthcare, Estia has been hit the hardest.

Ms Barlow and chairman Pat Grier blamed some of that damage on the bad press the company has received as turmoil hit the sector, while acknowledging fault also lay with the company.

"There has to be an element of that. But I have to say, when we give guidance out, we should meet it. And if we don't meet that guidance, we're hit," Ms Barlow told reporters after the annual meeting.

Ms Barlow said it was too soon to say whether the operator would look at asset sales or a capital raising with the strategic review under way. "It takes a long time to properly evaluate a company. That's the point we're still at," she said..

Estia quickly became a target for hedge funds shorting the stock as it grappled with the funding cuts – another element the aged care operator's trouble this year, according to Mr Grier.

"We more likely over-promised – and the others didn't do the over-promising – and under-delivered," he said. "Not by much, but because we had missed our forecast a couple of times, that was the first thing. "The second thing, we were seen to have grown a bit too fast and the media honed in on us. That's part of life in the financial world but there's been an amazing coverage in the media of us."
AFR ... after yesterday's AGM



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Nov 24 2016, 09:07 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Nov 17 2016, 09:36 AM

UBS is ease to be substantial holder day before and it said it will pay 12.8cps for the final half year.
look at it's balance sheet, it can keep the 25.6/y ff divy, if they keeps pay that the yield will be 10% at it's current price.
time to nib these "defensive" stocks i guess.

ps; i bought some at $2.80ish, bit of ramping from me!! tongue.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Nov 17 2016, 09:36 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 26 2016, 03:33 PM

try to get it at 2.75ish after sold big chunk of S32 , try to find longer term value in this sector. missed it.
so i bought little bit of it this morning. hope it can going down bit more so i can get little more of it.

feed me more info for this one nipper, i really like age care sector for longer term.



 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 26 2016, 03:33 PM
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double dup




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 26 2016, 03:33 PM
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Although Estia Health has been disappointing, [at Argo] we have continued to add to our position at these lower price levels and I will talk to this more fully in a moment..............

QUOTE
Aged Care Sector

I would like to speak about a sector that has fallen from grace as a market darling. The listed Aged Care sector is relatively new, with three companies coming to market via IPO during 2014. From the beginning of calendar year 2016 the three companies, Estia Heath, Japara and Regis Healthcare, have de-rated in price by 40% to 65%. Some of this is deserved, a combination of missing prospectus and investor expectations on earnings, management changes and negative changes to the government funding of the industry. However there remains a lot of confusion and even misinformation as to the health and viability of the industry.

Argo largely avoided these stocks at the time of their IPO's due to their high valuations. However as the company values have continued to fall throughout this year, we have been adding to our holdings in this sector. This is premised on a few key points, which I will quickly highlight; firstly demographics, secondly healthcare funding and the pressure on Government budgets, and thirdly the projected demand growth in aged care places that will be required into the future.

The latest intergenerational report, released in 2015, highlighted a number of demographic trends and changes occurring in Australia which are common across the developed world. The key demographic trend is that people are living longer. By 2035, it is expected that one million people in Australia will be aged over 85. For many of them, at some point in time, Aged Care facilities will not be a choice but a necessity.

This trend is not just impacting aged care but all health spending. There is rising demand and a shortage of supply leading to increased waiting times for hospital beds, retirement alternatives and aged care facilities. The forecast increase in health care spending is a major problem for Federal & State government budgets today and will only get worse in the future. Aged Care expenditure is forecast to rise from 0.9% of GDP in 2015 to 1.7% of GDP by 2055. In today's dollars, that is an additional $80bn.

The government has made some regulatory changes through its "Living Longer, Living Better" reforms, and in July 2014 means-testing and user-pays were proposed as part of the long-term solution. With rising household wealth, there is greater capacity for some participants of the baby boomer generation to pay, with residential housing a potential funding source. While further reforms are still being discussed and debated, it has placed uncertainty over the funding model of the sector.

The current Aged Care industry structure is largely a mix of not for profit and private operators, with a small percentage run by government. Smaller not for profit and private operators have limited capacity to fund new facilities or expansions, and the consolidation of small unprofitable operators while necessary, will not provide additional supply. The private sector has been encouraged to invest, and this has led to the emergence of the ASX-listed operators.

It is projected that over 6,500 additional places annually will be required in Australia out to 2022 and beyond, to meet the increasing demand of an ageing population. Only a small number of private sector operators will have sufficient capital to be able to provide these places.

However, to incentivise the private sector operators, they and their shareholders will need a stable Government funding policy, which allows them to make reasonable returns on capital invested or it will simply not be allocated to the sector. We remain hopeful that a reasonable compromise can be reached between all parties.

from the AGM of Argo (ARG) - one of the bigger LICs. Slides, also, in the presentation





--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
balance
post Posted: Sep 8 2016, 11:24 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 8 2016, 08:14 AM

Nothing to see here nipper. Move along...

How is that ethical or even legal?



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Day Trader: Lowest form of life in the known universe.
Shorter: Can limbo under a day trader.
Investor: Salt of the Earth.Sits to the right of God (Warren Buffet)
Share prices are only ever manipulated down.
Paper losses are not really losses.
Chat site posters always know better & know more than anyone about anything.
I'm 29.
The cheque is in the mail.

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nipper
post Posted: Sep 8 2016, 08:14 AM
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Would you buy a used apartment from these guys?
QUOTE
Last year [Estia] purchased a private aged care group called Nobel Life, located within a high rise development called Victoria Towers at Southport on the Gold Coast. Part of the purchase included Estia buying 10 apartments in the tower at prices ranging from $605,000 to $645,000.

Land titles searches show two apartments 1102 and 1402 with views over the glitter strip were purchased by Estia for $625,000 and $640,000 respectively and then sold to Mr Boggiano* for $375,000 and $384,000 respectively just three months later. The company said it offered the apartments internally at the same time it offered them to the broader market. It said there was nothing untoward. Some others of the 10 apartments have also been resold for prices equal to what Estia paid or at lower prices.

One Estia shareholder, who declined to be named, wanted a reason as to why the company had sold at such a discounted price. He said he hoped for "a response and justification from Estia that demonstrates how these transactions have been beneficial to the financial interests of all their shareholders." "There may be some valid and acceptable reason for the way the pricing of the acquisition and disposal of these units has been structured and the transactions may not involve any impropriety or avoidance of stamp duty."

Herron Todd White valuer Luke Nichols said it was "odd" that Estia sold at such a steep discount on what the company paid. "Prices for units in Southport have risen about 5 to 10 per cent in the last 12 months," Mr Nichols said. "The new unit product often attracts a premium typically sold to investors and the prices often appear high compared to their resales. But the discounts are only usually about 5 to 10 per cent."

Colliers National Director for Healthcare and Retirement Living Transactions Philip Smith whose agents sold the apartments said on Wednesday that: "Units were sold at fair market value."

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/estia-healt...2e#ixzz4Jbv3vYL
* Mr Boggiano was an employee and is now CFO of Estia Health



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
arty
post Posted: Jun 8 2016, 11:42 AM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Jun 8 2016, 09:29 AM

QUOTE
My guess at the immediate direction for today is therefore Northerly.

Wrong! The Shorters are still winning.

Attached Image





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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
arty
post Posted: Jun 8 2016, 09:29 AM
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In Reply To: batikit's post @ Jun 7 2016, 11:36 PM

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Initially, I treat a gap simply as a target, the time frame being determined by the distance - both in time and price difference.
Once a gap has been closed, the next direction depends on the trading action immediately following the gap closure.

The two gaps in question (Jan and Feb last year) may indeed be considered closed, even though a strict purist will argue about the last cent at the bottom, where yesterday's Low stopped at $4.61 instead of hitting (or undercutting) the High of $4.60 on the day before the gap-up on Jan 28. I tend to still make it a gimme smile.gif

As to future direction, I shall watch today's course of trades very closely. Yesterday's candle shows all the hallmarks of a bottom reversal/ support structure which suggests a strong bounce continuing. Psychologically, that ties in with the initial sell-off looking like panic-selling after Nervous Nellies (and speculating Short-Sellers) reacting to media allegations.

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The 1-minute chart above supports that idea. Look how, during the first 2 hours, several attempts recovery attempts were stopped by more selling (shorting??) until the bottom was reached at mid-day. Lastly, yesterday's Intraday High of $5.25 left the tiniest of gaps open to Monday's Low. My guess at the immediate direction for today is therefore Northerly.



--------------------
I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

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batikit
post Posted: Jun 7 2016, 11:36 PM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Jun 7 2016, 02:40 PM

both gaps closed - what does this usually mean ? north or south ? graduated.gif

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