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MARKET OUTLOOK - Technology, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
nipper
post Posted: Sep 5 2019, 02:44 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 10 2019, 11:27 AM

QUOTE
Insane levels': Can a world where profitless companies are flying last?

Stock market experts have been warning of a tech bubble for years now.

This link : https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/value...long-live-value
puts a countervailing argument about value (pe based analysis), growth (with tech and newly minted high fliers) and momentum (worst of both if you miss the bus!) investing.

It's long but a worthy read; not sure the conclusions are watertight. Demonstrably so.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 5 2019, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE
ETFS ROBO Global Robotics and Automation ETF (ASX: ROBO)

History has shown that it’s hard to pick one particular business that will do well out of a group of potential targets, so why not just invest in the entire group? This exchange-traded fund (ETF) aims to give exposure to robotics, automation and AI companies. It has an annual management fee of 0.69%, which is pricey, but cheaper than many active fund managers.

The ETF’s largest positions, which are all have less than a 2% weighting in the ETF, are ones like NVIDIA, Hiwin Technologies, Zebra Technologies, Faro Technologies, YASKAWA Electric, Harmonic Drive Systems, Intuitive Surgical and Rockwell Automation.

Over the past five years, the index which this ETF is tracking has delivered an average return per annum of 15% – but past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

- but hard to escape the index, as maximum 2% implies at least 50 stocks in this ETF, and you'd have to imagine some dross / slippers and sliders dragging numbers down.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 10 2019, 11:27 AM
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'Insane levels': Can a world where profitless companies are flying last?
extract
QUOTE
Stock market experts have been warning of a tech bubble for years now, but this week's ructions have given fresh impetus to the doomsayers.


QUOTE
The local equivalent of the FANG companies: Wisetech, Afterpay, Altium, Appen, and Xero (known collectively as the WAAAX stocks) trade at well over 100 times forecast earnings.

In fact veteran investor, Roger Montgomery, of Montgomery Investment Management, which manages $1.4 billion, calculates the WAAAX stocks are collectively trading at almost 170 times earnings for the 2019 financial year.

He is among the naysayers on WAAAX and other high growth stocks - some with no earnings profile - which have polarised the local investment community like never before.

"Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels," he says.

"When you compare prices to values, they are so divorced from each other that you can only say that we’re at the end stages where dumb money is willing to pay anything for a piece of this growth."

He thinks the local market is in the final stages of the tech bubble.

"When valuations are this stretched it doesn't take much for the bubble to burst."

Wisetech, a logistics software company, is worth as much as Qantas with a $8.5 billion market cap

By way of comparison, Qantas reported revenue totalling $16.6 billion in 2018 and a net profit of $1.14 billion. Wisetech recorded revenue of $221 million and a net profit of $40.8 million.

Another tech darling Altium, which plans to dominate the rather obscure but lucrative world of design software for printed circuit boards, is worth a billion dollars more than JB Hi-Fi.

That is despite Altium reporting a profit roughly one-seventh that of JB Hi-Fi's $234 million.

The long term price to earnings ratio for S&P 500 shares is around the 15 mark. Which means that investors have generally been willing to pay $15 on the share price of a company for every dollar of profit.

Atlassian, the Nasdaq-listed software group founded by tech billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar, reported in July that its revenue had finally exceeded $US1 billion for the financial year just ended.

The company is valued at $US33 billion after the recent share price fall. It means investors are paying $33 for every dollar of revenue it generates.

read more - https://www.theage.com.au/business/companie...808-p52f3d.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Jul 26 2019, 11:14 AM
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Technology

QUOTE
"In a world where every company is a software company, developers will play an increasingly vital role in value creation across every organization."
Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft Corp

QUOTE
"When I look at the kinds of private interactions we can make easier, payments may be the most important for the long term."

"So even if it [virtual reality] has taken longer than we expected to deliver this at scale, I continue to believe that this will be one of the most important contributions we make to the way we all use technology over the long term."
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Facebook Inc

QUOTE
"I believe this WiFi 6 [next generation WiFi] upgrade is significantly more appealing than the previous upgrades. This is akin to replacing a 2-lane freeway with an 8-lane freeway."
Patrick Lo, CEO, Netgear Inc [multinational manufacturer of network hardware]



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 22 2019, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE
The US market is enamoured with loss-making companies. Stocks to have listed in New York in the past few months that don’t make money include ride sharing companies Uber and Lyft and fake meat company Beyond Meat. This week’s new entrant is the loss-making collaboration software house, Slack.

The price-to-sales ratios of these are: Slack 45, Uber 10.5, Lyft 11 and Beyond Meat 113. Beyond Meat is growing so fast its forward price-to-sales ratio is 50
ring that Bell?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
lgrif
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 04:51 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 7 2019, 12:32 PM

How well will "all those tech & it jobs" pay. Carpenters on the" Queens Wharf" project will earn ~ $280000 pa & Sweepers ~ $160000 to $180000 pa. & on agreements due for renewal, apparently the CFMMEU want Queens Wharf conditions to be the standard.


 


mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 12:32 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 7 2019, 11:40 AM

Hopefully, all those tech and It jobs to be created can be taken up by ex construction workers.

T
QUOTE
he construction sector's downturn accelerated last month, with a leading industry survey pointing to the sharpest decline in activity in six years.

Key points:
Construction activity has been contracting for nine consecutive months
50,000 jobs were lost last year and another 9,000 in the first three months of 2019
Falling forward orders across most sectors, but particularly residential building, points to ongoing weakness
The Australian Industry Group/Housing Industry Association Australian Performance of Construction Index (PCI) dropped deeper into contractionary territory in May.

It is the ninth consecutive month of contraction and points to more jobs being lost across the sector.

Last year around 50,000 construction jobs were shed. The figures point to another 9,000 being lost in the first three months of 2019.

"This marked a tenth consecutive month of contraction in employment, consistent with the more subdued readings on activity from mid-2018," the survey found.

"It indicates that construction businesses are responding to the ongoing weakness of overall demand conditions by exerting greater caution in terms of their labour recruitment."

Figures from job ad website Seek show that the number of construction positions available fell 16.6 per cent in the March quarter 2019, compared to a year earlier, albeit that was coming off record high levels.

Construction employs around 1.1 million workers and accounts for 9 per cent of total Australian jobs.


Despite that, BLD is up today.
Sometimes markets are weird.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 7 2019, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE
"We can continue to be optimistic on the long-term view of the market that IT growth is going to outpace GDP growth. Enterprise and software growth will outpace IT growth."
- Pat Gelsinger, CEO, VMware Inc [NYSE Global Listed Software Company]

QUOTE
“What I have learned in the last seven years during my time at Telstra is that almost every industry, every leader, every government is underestimating the level of technological change that is coming."
- Andy Penn, CEO, Telstra

QUOTE
"I'm so enthusiastic about 5G for reasons I don't read much about because I think it's going to transform the enterprise. And so that wireless growth will obviously do some things that are going to be a challenged in the marketplace. It's likely to be the WiFi killer. It's likely to be the next-generation local area network. So it's going to be a disruptive thing."
- John Donovan, CEO, AT&T Communications

QUOTE
"Today, if you look at the servers that are being deployed in hyperscale and in enterprises now, they're compute-rich. They often have four, eight or 16 GPUs [Graphics processing units] per server because the more compute that you put inside the box, the more performance that you get for your dollar. And they're starting to really dial up the interconnect."
- Ian Buck, VP Accelerated Computing Business Unit, NVIDIA Corporation



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
plastic
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 04:38 AM
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The latest shift by Facebook to embrace privacy as the number one issue for his company to restructure around suggests its maybe already too late. Should've been done a long time ago. Gotta feeling this is going to collapse like a house of cards. Outfits like Mega are way ahead of that curve. No wonder they wanted to take down Kim Dotcom.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 1 2019, 12:52 PM
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QUOTE
Here are seven tech stocks currently favoured by Regal Funds Management and the reasons why the fund manager likes them.

Bigtincan Holdings.
It sells a software product that enables sales and service organisations to engage with customers. Regal likes it because of consistent 35 to 40 per cent organic revenue growth from both new client wins and expanded contracts with existing customers. "It generates software as service revenue, with low churn and high lifetime customer value," Regal says.

"Recently achieved cashflow break even on a normalised basis. We believe it is undervalued, trading at only three times current recurring revenue base of $21 million."

Credible Labs.
Operates a consumer finance marketplace to help customers make better financial decisions. Regal likes it because of strong loan origination momentum and record volumes in the second half of 2018 of more than $US700 million, up 80 per cent on the previous corresponding. It now has more than 1.3 million user accounts.

"Recently launched mortgage origination platform across 34 US States, expanding addressable market to the $US1.6 trillion US mortgage market, which is 80 times larger than it's core student loan market that it currently plays in," Regal says.

Livetiles.
It sells subscription software licenses to IT providers delivering cloud computing services. Regal likes it because it recently completed an acquisition of a highly complementary, fast growing software business – Wizdom, for an attractive price (3.5 times recurring revenue). This was substantially funded by scrip via the issuance of Livetiles shares.

"It has pro-forma recurring revenue of more than $30 million across more than 800 customers, with line of sight to cashflow breakeven," Regal says.

"Livetiles alone achieved more than 230 per cent growth year on year in annualised recurring revenue to $23 million at December 2018."

iSignthis.
It is a deposit taking financial institution or neo bank providing transactional banking services in Australia and the European Union.
Regal believes iSignthis is at an inflection point for volumes and margin. It has obtained an ECB banking license in Europe, which now means the business is no longer reliant on third party operators to process transactions.

"Within this €1 trillion market, ISX has a leading anti-money laundering tool and a full range of banking products, which should see its customer base expand significantly," Regal says.

"iSingthis anticipates being granted a banking license by APRA in the second quarter of 2019, which would enable it to provide transactional banking services in Australia, and make it the first wholesale/B2B neobank to receive APRA approval since PayPal."

King says Regal has also invested in three unlisted tech companies which have the potential to join the ASX through initial public offerings. These are: Life360, Whispir and Damstra.

Life360 is a US-based company that has developed a location sharing and driver safety smartphone app that seeks to protect and connect families. Ranks in the top 5 most downloaded social media apps in the US.

Whispir has developed software that assists businesses in managing their communications workflows between people, devices and systems. It operates in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and the US.

Damstra has developed an integrated, software as a service, cloud based software and hardware workforce management solution to facilitate safer workplaces and increased business efficiency.




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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