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Silver, Discussion
mullokintyre
post Posted: Oct 12 2020, 09:14 AM
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Silver up 1.24 on Friday night.
Is the next run up underway??
Kinda hope not, as I am yet to load up fully on SVL and ARD.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 24 2020, 08:26 AM
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Silver pummelled again overnight.
Will stick some low ball buys for ARD and SVL in today in the hope of picking something up a lot cheaper than when I last sold them.
Mick



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bg99
post Posted: Sep 23 2020, 12:16 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 23 2020, 09:41 AM

think you are right Mick, time to wait for lower prices.... have mostly bailed on the PMs for now...forget about what I said about RMS.... saw that you had lightened on these already


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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 23 2020, 09:41 AM
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Silver continuing its fall, now down 16% from its recent high.
Hope the crunch goes further as I sit on the sidelines waiting.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 22 2020, 07:19 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Sep 16 2020, 10:26 AM

Wow, Silver down by 2 bucks overnight.
Thats a pretty good dumping.
Had some low ball bids back in at SVL, but will cancel them until I see a bit of a recovery.
Gold was also smacked, though not as hard.
Given the fall in Dow last night, plus the big jump in the USD index, looks like people running for cover into cash.
Mick



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mullokintyre
post Posted: Sep 16 2020, 10:26 AM
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A most interesting take on the silver supply and demand price ratio.
From Voima gold

Every year the Silver Institute publishes silver supply and demand numbers that suggest the market is in a deficit or surplus, although there is no correlation between their “market balance” and the price of silver.
QUOTE
Investment decisions based on the Silver Institute’s supply and demand data can turn out badly.In a previous article we have discussed that gold trades more like a currency than a commodity. An approach of a gold market balance, which produces a surplus or deficit, is therefore not appropriate nor indicative of price direction. Because silver is both a monetary metal and an industrial commodity its supply and demand dynamics require special attention. My conclusion is that silver, just like gold, trades more like a currency than a commodity.

Silver Is a Currency
In ancient Sumer, roughly 5,000 years ago, silver was a unit of account, a medium of exchange for large purchases, and a store of value. Silver has been used as money in countless civilizations ever since. Because silver is durable and valuable very little gets lost. More than 90% of all silver ever mined is still above ground.

Since the 19th century silver is also being used for industrial applications. Currently, CPM Group estimates that half of all above ground silver is in industrial products, and the other half is in coins, jewelry, silverware and investment bars. The total above ground amount of silver For perishable commodities a market balance, calculated by subtracting demand from supply, is indicative of price direction. This is because annual production is far larger than above ground stocks. When wheat demand rises, wheat supply can’t be quickly expanded—as there are no vast stocks that can enter the market—and the price has to go up. The wheat market balance tells us if there is a surplus or deficit in the market that will either decrease or increase the price of wheat.For monetary metals, however, this approach is not suitable. The reason is the stock to flow ratio (STF), which is calculated by dividing above ground stocks by annual production. Silver’s STF is approximately 30. Annual silver mine production is 26,000 tonnes, and 800,000 tonnes of silver is in jewelry, coins and bars, which comprises the stock (at the right price this can enter the market as supply). For the sake of simplicity I choose not to count above ground silver that is in industrial products as stock.The above shows the difficulty for consultancy firms of presenting a market balance for what is chiefly a currency (monetary metal). My message is not that the Silver Institute’s reports are useless; they contain all sorts of valuable data. I’m just skeptical of any conclusion derived from a silver market balance—surplus or deficit. To me it makes more sense to focus on variables that also drive the price of gold—such as inflation, risk, and interest rates—to get a feel for silver sentiment.


The interesting point is that the supply of silver is huge if the price keeps going up.
At some price point, people holding silver in jewelry or investment form as ingots etc will bring it into the supply side.
The quoted supply demand figures are at best inaccurate, at worst downright misleading.
I had always simply looked at the published demand/supply figures to drive my investment.
Perhaps I have just been lucky in the past.
Mick




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mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 31 2020, 09:08 AM
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Silver on the march again.
Was briefly above 28 early this A.m.
Just below it now.
Its leading ahead of gold for a change.
Mick



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early birds
post Posted: Jul 22 2020, 11:14 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jul 22 2020, 10:41 AM

wish you have more luck Mick.
i said long before [since GFC] i'm not focus on this sectors anymore. just try to translate something send to me by a fiend of mine whom worked at wall st for over 30 years. he seems king on this sector
not blame you guys does that as USA try to lead westen world to corner China, the physical war possibility is increased big time and money printing by all central banks are on the brink of our control
i focus on the other things like oil digital currencies and few other things .
hope you have good reward on this things!!



 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jul 22 2020, 10:41 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jul 22 2020, 10:21 AM

QUOTE
silver benefit from industrial use and expectation off oversea's inflation. expecting better than gold performance . but need to be cautious if the expectation of inflation going down then silver might underperform the gold!!


Silver is far more volatile than gild, but overall has underperformed gold for the last couple of years.
if you look at the gold/silver ratio chart, you can see that for the five years from early 2010 when it was 40, the ratio has doubled to 80's late last year, then in the early part of this year shot up to a peak of 120.
It is now back to the 80's level.
So silver could go higher if it was to revert to the long term trend of the mid 30's to mid 40's.
However, this recent meteroric rise is merely an opportunity to take profits as far as I am concerned.
I could be wrong, but hell, the profits in trading have been huge these past 18 months.
Mick




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early birds
post Posted: Jul 22 2020, 10:21 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jul 22 2020, 09:33 AM

http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-07-22...=none&tr=12

白银受益于工业品板块强势和海外通货膨胀预期,预计能继续获得比黄金更强的市场表现。需要注意的是,一旦海外通胀预期回落,白银将会跑输黄金。

================
silver benefit from industrial use and expectation off oversea's inflation. expecting better than gold performance . but need to be cautious if the expectation of inflation going down then silver might underperform the gold!!

hope it can help Mick!!




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