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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
PunkassDerm
post Posted: Dec 5 2019, 08:11 AM
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In Reply To: endymion96's post @ Dec 5 2019, 07:42 AM

The treatment areas can be treated in a focused fashion with Scenesse + NB-UVB laser, excimer. In my mind a great kickstart, followed by topical for maintenance.

 
endymion96
post Posted: Dec 5 2019, 07:42 AM
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I saw something interesting on the google site that Uhohinc mentioned that he found over here. It was a comment, made by Lachlan Hay, related to either Juxtaposer or Madman before the AGM ... and that was that the Scennese "implant" darkens both light and dark areas of the skin in regard to Vitiligo sufferers. This makes total sense since the implant infers a systemic application of the drug. Lachlan also mentioned that it would be much better to apply a surface topical (i.e. CUV9900) to ONLY the light patched skin of Vitiligo sufferers to achieve the best result. So I have digested this information in regard to the competitor's drug. It too effects systemically as the drug is delivered orally. Therefore, they may not have a winning formula when it comes to the Vitiligo market. As we know, this pool is much larger than EPP. Additionally, Clinuvel is looking to apply CUV9900 to children and babies as it may be a better way to go safety-wise because who knows what effect Scennese would have on growing babies and children under 18 and their budding immune system? So that is very positive news.


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Alaaf
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 11:02 PM
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In Reply To: Frogster's post @ Dec 4 2019, 10:06 PM

We do not know if he was successful, you're right.
But if he is a magician as you say in your signature, then you could assume it ;-)


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Frogster
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 10:06 PM
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In Reply To: Alaaf's post @ Dec 4 2019, 08:14 PM

We know he was an analyst. Do we know he was successful? I've known many who weren't.



--------------------
Dr Wolgen is a magician. His end game for Scenesse will impress, or even amaze. En route, along with glimmers of truth, there will be distractions, illusions, sleight of hand and misdirection. Enjoy the ride.

"Our ability to bring this drug to market does not hinge upon its efficacy, but only on our ability to keep deadlines" Philippe Wolgen CEO March 2006. Remember this when the Chair or CEO get aggressive in response to questions about their execution against deadlines.

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IntiRaymi
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 09:54 PM
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In Reply To: Fortescue Bullrout's post @ Dec 4 2019, 09:46 PM

Attention to detail. Cosmetics. Aesthetics.

Although this wasn’t reflected in that silly logo change with the archer (if he allowed that to be signed off). The branding at recent expos has been top notch though 👍


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Fortescue Bullro...
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 09:46 PM
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In Reply To: Alaaf's post @ Dec 4 2019, 08:14 PM

PW was also a successful craniofacial surgeon. What would that add to a skill set?

 

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LegendInMySpareT...
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 08:56 PM
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In Reply To: Verharven's post @ Dec 4 2019, 06:08 PM

Yes, it's something that is worth taking into consideration, but in moderation. What I was lacking in the dialogue on 7117 is what risk adjustment to apply, LH seemed to apply a certain measure of hysteria instead of a, well lets say levelheaded, approach of the risk of competition. (I guess in all industrys competition is a normal threat, so it's a bit fantastic even having to be in a situation where the discussion is whether there will be competition or not, as a starting point).

I had a further look at Sphene Capitals Monte Carlo Simuation valuation analysis from the 10th of October, specifically on what they had added as competitive risk factors.

Interestingly in their Beta (Finance measure of Risk, anybody unfamiliar can check up on Beta here, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/beta.asp ) they have assigned a beta of 1.4 to CUV

TABLE 1: DERIVATION OF FUNDAMENTAL BETA, 2018/19E-2020/21E
Degree of diversification 0.10
Competitive intensity 0.00
Business model maturity 0.00
Regulatory risks 0.10
Financial risks 0.10
Earnings forecast risks 0.10
Liquidity premium for pre-IPO valuation 0.00
Market beta 1.00
Fundamental beta 1.40
SOURCE: SPHENE CAPITAL FORECAST


On the different risks they have rated competitive intensity as 0 (as there the 10th of October was no competition, and there still isn't today), and diversification, regulatory risks, financials risks and earnings forecast risks all assigned 0.1 as a risk factor.

I am curious what additional risk to add with 7117, it seems that it would be inappropriate to apply more than 0.1 to Competitive intensive, as compared to regulatory risks (which we know is a real barrier to CUV, yesterday, today and tomorrow) it is not a risk that has actually materialised yet, and may never materialise. If 7117 was approved, a 0.1 could probably be assigned giving a Beta of 1.5. At this point I think at most an additional Beta would be 0.05 to assign to competition.

The beta is used in calculating the present value of the future cash flows (the higher the risk, the lower the present value).


I don't have the data sets that Sphene Capital has been using to make the simulation, so looking forward to when they are releasing the next forecast, but what I can say with certainty is that the valuation range they provided suggesting present value outcomes between 33 AUD - 116 AUD (and 80% of the outcomes falling within the valuation range of 46.90-73.3 AUD), is not going to be moved much by adding the 0.05 or 0.01 to the Beta of CUV. Even in their worst case scenario the present value is well above the share price of today and a Beta of 1.5 is unlikely to break that math.

I am posting this to highlight that yes, competition is a threat that should always be factored into the risk assessment of any investment, but its just one variable and not a start/end all input. The risk of 7117 being approved in the future should be measured for what it is, a potential risk that there will be competition. The fact that there is no competition today is a great place to be for any company.


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Alaaf
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 08:14 PM
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As we all know, PW was a successful stock analyst in his time before Clinuvel. He has a strong strategic mind and probably knows exactly how to deal with the current situation.
Furthermore we have a financially strong WB on the board. I'm convinced that WB will soon buy another piece of the company, followed by the awaited news and next steps.
The shortys are playing the ugly game pretty well so far, but the ice is getting thinner and PW is going to play it better in the end.
My question at the moment is: What is WB's target SP?
Anyway how and when, I stay long and keep buying back ...


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Dr Wally
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 06:28 PM
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Don’t take it the wrong way but it’s about time you guys woke up to this sneaky, partial truth telling fraud.

The long spoken of “plant” finally has been revealed.

RC, Reality Check, you were right all along! 🤣🤣



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Wishing everyone the best of luck through these testing times. Hopefully we’ll all be getting back on track towards the end of this incredible year 2020.

Understand the reality of this unprecedented situation but don’t panic.

2020. Year of the germ!
 
Verharven
post Posted: Dec 4 2019, 06:08 PM
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In Reply To: schaumelk's post @ Dec 4 2019, 05:36 PM

LH has now been banned. He/she is now moaning about it over on the Yahoo! CLVLY discussion group. We get it, we all agree MT-7117 is something we all need to keep a watch on as it develops but can do without the endless repetition of the same points and God complex attitude that you're the only bearer of the true facts.

 
 


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