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post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 10:02 PM
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Fantastic News - the way it should have been done in the first place.
Lets look at the math and I will be conservative.

1 /2 Yr figures has NTA at 11c
Remove the $4m in intangible assets and the correct figure is 10.3m /128m share = 8c per share
Share Price has been running at multiples of 8-10 versus assets.

A conservative issue ar 50c AUD to raise $37m AUD needs 74million shares.
New shares on Issue 202 million New Tangible Assets $37m AUD + Existing $8m or $45m AUD

Now applying the same price to asset model that EPT has been running at say 8:1
8*45m = $360m valuation devide the number of shares 202 and you get a share price of $1.78

Now I was told the issue was in May - so a $1 rise in price is pretty good.

Move on 3 years. Sales of 4billion with a 50% cut not the 5-10% a pharma would offer. Earnings of $2billion AUD. Minus tax avg Aust coy tax paid is 27% = 1.5Billion AUD
Pay 60% or 900million in dividend = $4.45 fully franked Use a 5% yield market average so multiply your $4.45*20 = $89 AUD - now these figures are conservative and it all starts with an issue to raise money and phase 3 trials being dine in Europe. We can sell to the americans over the internet as the topical formulation may work.

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 09:54 PM
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Something just occurred to me. Going by Epitan's history, they have a tendancy to release groups of announcements together....sometimes 3 in a single day spaced apart.

On this occassion they only released this one bomb shell and must know the market would be putting a microscope over it tonight.

It would not surprise me at all if they announce something else of a positive nature just before open tomorrow morning to help mellow out the market's cynical feelings.... cool.gif

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 09:26 PM
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Well, I've given it some thought and I'm still a little confused about how the market will see this announcement.

Whatever happens tomorrow morning I'd say the only thing I'm comfortable in predicting will rise is the volume. The market is always cynical and at the moment very bearish.

I think initially there is more chance for down side then up side. Later on this could be a very good move by Epitan.

I have half a mind to sell half my holdings on open.

Still mulling it over....

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 09:26 PM
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In reply to: skorpian on Wednesday 30/03/05 08:54pm

I see this as a medium to long term positive announcement!!

The recent decline may have been due to the apparent dilution to occur, but it appears it certainly had nothing to do with anything negative about the drug itself.

I believe Epitan could easily get a pharma on board, but why if all they need is 30-40 million to go it themselves and get a better deal.

In addition they will be killing 2 birds with one stone - so to speak, by openning up the stock to a larger pool of shareholders which hopefully should balance out the dilution.

I reckon they will have some more positive announcements leading up to April 29th in order to bolster the share price and get share holder approval.

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 08:54 PM
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In reply to: WHISTLER7 on Wednesday 30/03/05 06:35pm

Perhaps they are going to use the "March study release" as a trump card ...

if that can push the SP up then it is to their advantage and might explain why they havent released it.

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 08:35 PM
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In reply to: wiland on Wednesday 30/03/05 08:16pm

The fund managers might get in and some big investors.I think the SP will go up as Epitan will want it as high as possible.


post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 08:16 PM
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In reply to: Klomp on Wednesday 30/03/05 07:45pm

With the EGM at end of April I'm sure there'll be some positive announcements around the corner to keep us shareholders happy.

Otherwise it will be some meeting better than a game of footy

I'm for sure attending the meeting.

Where do you guys see the shareprice heading tomorrow but most importantly in the next couple of weeks before the EGN

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 08:14 PM
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In reply to: WHISTLER7 on Wednesday 30/03/05 07:54pm

Well evryone is a bit quiet.If the SP is say 85c average over the 5 days that would be ok and does anyone agree that Epitan would want the SP to be as high as possible over that period so they might feed the market good news from here on in to get it up there.

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 07:54 PM
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QUOTE (Klomp @ Wednesday 30/03/05 07:45pm)

Page 12 of the announcement is the key.IF we get good news and the SP jumps back up then the issue of shares will be at a higher price am i right as i am confused at the moment.37 mill could mean 37 mill shares if the SP is over $1 so they might hit us with good news so it goes up and remember Millens shares are free as of the 30/6/05 so he will want it to be higher as well.I think we will see a fall in price then a very big jump as Millen has to much riding on this.

post Posted: Mar 30 2005, 07:49 PM
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Hi Skorpian,

I believe the issue is that you will never get Melanotan passed through the FDA/TGA based on cosmetics. The drug will only be approved if Epitan can prove melanotans efficacy in protecting the skin from UV.

Of course the cosmetic market will be infinetely larger than 'uv market' but there is only one way through the regulators and that's with a medically proven drug rather than a "barbie doll" compound...



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