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Palladium, Discussion
post Posted: Jul 4 2005, 11:11 AM
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Posts: 34

Still in the dog house it seems and for a while yet.

MARKET TALK: Palladium Looks Like Risky Play-Analyst 04/07/05 10:38:00

  0038 GMT [Dow Jones] Analyst with big Japanese trading house says palladium
has been riding on coattails of other precious metals, making it look
'deceptively solid'. Warns palladium market still oversupplied, may remain so
for several years to come. Palladium quoted at $178 vs $180 late Friday in New
York. (JSH)

post Posted: Mar 19 2005, 03:16 PM
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Posts: 492
Thanks: 13

The last resources dog left in the pound?

- Charts



- Background



- Direct Trading

(1) Futures or Contracts for Difference

- Dampeners



(3) Mine production PGM

Platinum Palladium Reserves Reserve base
2003 2004e 2003 2004e
World totals 205,000 218,000 182,000 190,000 71,000,000 80,000,000

- Potential catalysts

(1) "Platinum is the catalyst used by fuel cells to convert hydrogen and oxygen to electricity. Palladium will likely also play a role in the fuel cell as well."


Palladium Reaches 3-Month High on Russia: World's Biggest Mover

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Palladium in Tokyo rose 9.5 percent, the
biggest fluctuation of any commodity today, on speculation that Russia, the
world's top producer, is holding less of the metal than some analysts have

Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday approved the release of
production and inventory figures for platinum-group metals and diamonds.
Soviet-era laws had treated the data as state secrets. Palladium is used to
make autocatalysts, which reduce emissions from cars and trucks, and

``It is possible someone knows Russian disclosures on palladium stocks
might be more bullish than anticipated,'' said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach,
a precious metals analyst with Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Frankfurt.
``There is some industrial buying going on. Prices are relatively low.''

Palladium for delivery in February 2006, the most actively traded
contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, rose 60 yen, the most allowed
under exchange rules, to 693 yen a gram, or 21,552 yen ($204) an ounce. It
was the highest for a most active contract since Dec. 7.

In London, palladium for immediate delivery was up $10.75, or 5.4
percent, to $209.25 an ounce as of 3:46 p.m. The metal's two-day gain of 11
percent is the most since January of last year. Palladium touched a 13-month
low of $176.50 in December and still costs less than one-fourth as much as
platinum, a rival precious metal.

Shares of Stillwater Mining Co., the only U.S. producer of palladium
and platinum, jumped as much as 13 percent, the most since April 30. They
traded up $1.17, or 11 percent, at $11.97 in New York at 11:12 a.m.

OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the Russian producer of about half the world's
palladium, owns 56 percent of Columbus, Montana-based Stillwater. Norilsk
spokesman Dmitry Usanov was away until March 9 and couldn't be reached to
comment on when the Moscow-based company plans to release any data, said his
assistant, who declined to be identified.

Russian Inventory

Decrees signed by Putin enact changes approved by the government in
2003, the Kremlin said in a statement. The Soviet Union, which broke apart
in 1991, had barred disclosure of the data because of the metals' use in the
defense industry.

``Russia had up to now classed inventories as a state secret and its
pending abolishment is expected to show low supplies,'' Hiroyuki Kikukawa,
deputy general manager of research at Tokyo- based commodities trader Nihon
Unicom Corp., said in a telephone interview.

Norilsk's palladium stockpiles may stand at about 500,000 ounces, or
less than 10 percent of annual consumption, said Maxim Matveev, senior
equity analyst at Alfa Bank in Moscow. The company last built up inventory
in 2002, after prices collapsed from a record $1,125. Russia had curbed
exports, prompting buyers to turn to platinum.

``In 2003, they sold all production,'' Matveev said in an interview.
``In 2004, we don't think they stockpiled.''

Inventory in Switzerland may be more than 6 million ounces after four
years of global production surpluses, according to trade data cited by
London-based Johnson Matthey Plc, the world's biggest distributor of
platinum and palladium. South Africa is the world's second-largest palladium
producer, accounting for 39 percent of supply.

Slumping Yen

The yen's three-day slump against the dollar helped boost palladium in
Tokyo, Kikukawa said. Commodities are priced in dollars on international
markets, making the contracts an attractive proxy for the U.S. currency when
it strengthens.

The dollar bought 105.37 yen today, up from 104.39 yen on March 1,
according to EBS, an electronic currency dealing system. The euro was up
against the dollar after a four-day slide, trading at $1.3149.

Chinese jewelry buyers who couldn't afford platinum turned to
palladium last year, boosting their consumption of the metal 24-fold to more
than 600,000 ounces, Johnson Matthey said on Feb. 15. Palladium is used in
white gold, an alloy made with gold and silver.

Diesel Demand

Catalysts in gasoline-fueled cars can use either platinum or
palladium. Vehicles using diesel fuel, which this year may account for about
half of Europe's car market, have needed catalysts manufactured with

Brussels-based Umicore SA, the world's biggest recycler of precious
metals, said last year it developed technology that will allow as much as a
quarter of the platinum in diesel catalysts to be replaced by palladium.

Platinum was unchanged at $866 an ounce in London.

Palladium prices will rise as high as $300 an ounce this year and fall
as low as $135, Virtual Metals predicted on Jan. 12. The metal will average
$187, down from $231 last year, the London-based consultant said.

Virtual Metals had the most accurate palladium price forecast during
the past two years in the London Bullion Market Association's annual survey.

The world's biggest movers are based on changes in price and screened
for the size of the market and amount of daily trading.

post Posted: Dec 29 2003, 09:58 PM
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Posts: 554
Thanks: 3

Great info HappyChappy,

Just what I needed to know.


People who follow me are bigger fools than I.
post Posted: Dec 29 2003, 06:55 PM
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Posts: 702
Thanks: 5

Hi Muns,

I used to take a passing interest in the palladium price when I held Platinum Australia shares (for the Panton Sill palladium/platinum project).

Simplistically, platinum and palladium are essential and interchangeable components of the pollution control systems in new cars (catalytic converters). They tend to have a see-saw price relationship, when one becomes expensive, factories re-tool and substitute the other metal in the manufacturing process. One could expect that substitution of palladium will accelerate with such a marked price differential.

The price spike in 2000 was primarily due to Russia. Russia (via the Norilsk mine) is a major supplier of the worlds palladium, and in 2000 it was unable to export the metal due to a delay in receiving central government authority. This played merry havoc with the futures market, and futures trading in palladium had to be suspended for a while as the market went into meltdown.

There are not many ASX opportunities for speculating on the palladium price, PLA and RML would be the two that come to mind.


post Posted: Dec 28 2003, 11:32 PM
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Posts: 554
Thanks: 3

Guys and Girls,

Looking at the historical charts on this metal, it seems to of bottomed out and could be on the start of an upward trend.
Seeing its last peak during the dot com boom years and hopefully IT budgets are set to improve over the next few years, I wondering if anyone had some good information on this metal, the reason for such a large spike over 2000.

Thanks in Advance


People who follow me are bigger fools than I.

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