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Zinc, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Apr 4 2016, 09:42 AM
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...if you are looking for bullish forecasts, go no further that Christopher Ecclestone of London-based Hallgarten & Co. He has looked not so much at demand but at future mine production capacity and made some interesting calls. Zinc will be the big winner in Ecclestone's view, nearly doubling by 2019 to $US3306 tonne (against Friday's $US1846), copper will hit $US7053/tonne ($US4831 on Friday), and tin $US22,800/tonne ($US16,665). He sees Tungsten more than doubling in price and antimony rising from $US5100/tonne in January 2016 to $US10,450 by 2019.

The zinc forecast will be of interest to those responsible for the sudden (and on no news) 28.6 per cent rise price and huge leap in trading volume on Wednesday in zinc hopeful Marindi Metals (MZN). This was queried by the ASX but the company could not account for the sudden interest in its stock.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Oct 9 2015, 05:35 PM
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Zinc is everywhere. It helps protect steel from corrosion and our skin from the sun. It makes fireworks sparkle and is even used to treat an upset stomach.

Like many commodities, it's got a lot cheaper because there's more of it than we need. That may be about to change after Glencore Plc, the world's largest producer of the mined metal, said it's going to cut output by a third. Zinc prices jumped the most in more than four years Friday in response.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...screen-to-steel



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
frodo
post Posted: Jul 17 2014, 11:17 AM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Jul 17 2014, 11:15 AM

Who needs another reason to buy smile.gif

 
arty
post Posted: Jul 17 2014, 11:15 AM
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In Reply To: frodo's post @ Jul 17 2014, 11:07 AM

KDR has got some Zinc smile.gif
and I've got some KDR smile.gif



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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)
 
frodo
post Posted: Jul 17 2014, 11:07 AM
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In Reply To: arty's post @ Jul 17 2014, 08:46 AM

dumb ole me noticed zinc Arty now I have to try and remember the zinc coy's rolleyes.gif

 
arty
post Posted: Jul 17 2014, 08:46 AM
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In Reply To: Twobees's post @ Jul 17 2014, 03:15 AM

Since the Low in March, the zinc price has gained over 10%. Surely the Market has noticed?

Attached Image



As to mine profitability, any price gain will improve the bottom line of a producer by a multiple of that %-age.
Consider a mine with All-in costs of $1900 per ton. In March, their profit margin would have been as low as 5%, now closer to 20%.
In cases of high production costs, e.g. $2000, it can even mean a turnaround from uneconomical to profitable.

But as Andy Home cautions, if the recent rally is only or mainly speculative, the calculation can just as quickly change; should that happen, zinc miners will again feel the pinch. Compare the charts of your favourite zinc producer to Zinc's weekly:

Attached Image





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I trade daily, but I am not a licensed adviser. Whether you find my ideas reasonable or not: The only person responsible for your actions is YOU.
I follow two rules: (1) There are no sacred truths. All assumptions must be critically examined. Arguments from authority are worthless. (2) Whatever is inconsistent with observed facts must be discarded or revised. We must understand the Market as it is and not confuse how it is with how we wish it to be. (inspired by Carl Sagan)

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Twobees
post Posted: Jul 17 2014, 03:15 AM
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In Reply To: mercury's post @ Dec 26 2013, 10:22 AM

http://www.gulf-times.com/Mobile/Eco.-Bus....r-false-dawn%3F

Not easy trying to figure out the Zn outlook. My guess is that if there is a window, it will be brief, maybe 2 years max, from maybe next year? And you will need to be in a producer.

 
mercury
post Posted: Dec 26 2013, 10:22 AM
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who of you out there have noticed that Lead and Zinc have risen somewhat recently in value.

why is this? Any ideas?

Merc




 
jeeves
post Posted: Sep 3 2012, 06:16 PM
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A killer of a commodity with the likes of KZL, TZN, BSM all dead or dying.



jeeves

 
veeone
post Posted: Jul 18 2011, 07:10 PM
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There's an oversupply now, but a looming shortage is expected to change the game.

ZINC has long been runt in the litter of base metals, notwithstanding its multitude of uses. But the tide may be turning, with some big-name mine closures in the years ahead getting analysts thinking about the day when the oversupplied market goes into deficit.
Goldman Sachs made the point in a recent research note, which posed the question of whether unloved zinc could be the ''next copper,'' given the prospect of a possible shortage from 2013.
Now if zinc was going to take off like copper has done it would be a cause for some real celebration among the base metals producers. But we are looking at a slow burn when it comes to zinc lighting up. However, the potential for a decent price performance is there all right.
''Since 2007, zinc's cumulative surplus has been in the order of 1.3 million tonnes, and we expect the market to remain oversupplied both this year and next,'' Goldman said.
It then pointed out that a series of large mine closures (including Century in Queensland) on reserve bases being exhausted, a shortage of new projects, and expectations that China's internal mine production is levelling out suggest ''significant annual deficits in the zinc market from 2013''.
Goldman said all that would lead to ''growing pricing tension'' justifying significantly higher prices. ''Building some exposure to zinc over the next 12 months should be rewarding on a two-to-three-year view,'' it said.
Having said that, the broker was not moved enough to upgrade its zinc price forecasts. From the US98¢ a pound average for 2010 and the current $US1.06 a pound, Goldman expects a boring old $US1.03 a pound in 2011, US99¢ a pound in 2012 and $US1.07 a pound in 2013.
Then comes the expectation of some fun, with prices tipped to get to $US1.18 a pound in 2014 and $US1.25 a pound.
Given the delay in zinc prices taking off, investors are probably best advised to match zinc exposure to copper where they can. Kagara Ltd does just that from its north Queensland operations, with (Queensland) gold and (Western Australian) nickel and base metal exposure thrown in for good measure.
While zinc's improving price outlook is doing no harm for Kagara, the big hope is that its new managing director, former Newcrest man Geoff Day, can enforce a lasting reduction in production costs.
The recently released June quarter production report showed Day has been kicking some early goals, with Kagara's cash operating costs reduced by 3.2 per cent to $US1.70 a pound for copper and 16 per cent to US74¢ a pound for zinc (net of credits).
Day's target is for more reductions, with $US1.60 a pound for copper and US60¢ a pound for zinc the target.
More on his plans for the group are to be unveiled at a strategy briefing to brokers and fund managers at Chillagoe in north Queensland in September.
Meanwhile, the cost reduction trend and expectation that Day is not inviting the investment community to little old Chillagoe for just a cold beer, has prompted analysts who follow the stock to reaffirm aggressive share price targets on the stock, which closed at 62¢ on Friday.
Wilson HTM was one of those. It did trim the target a shade in its latest note on the company, but at $1.31 a share the target still a suggested 111 per cent premium to the market price. ''We retain our buy recommendation and expect further performance improvements and additional resource announcements in the company months,'' the broker said.
www.smh.com.au/business/zinc-or-swim-when-the-tide-turns-20110717-1hk1j.html#ixzz1SRjOZMyq



 
 


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