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AJL, AJ LUCAS LIMITED
badahur
post Posted: Feb 19 2009, 09:30 AM
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In Reply To: Barra's post @ Feb 3 2009, 06:59 AM

Seems like no one like them at the moment. Despite the buyback they don't seem to be able to put a solid floor on the price. A significant drop over the last few days. They should be happy to pick up a few more of their own shares at this price. Maybe $3.00 will be the low.

Might get some interest when the report comes out. Tomorrow or Monday I think.

All the best

badahur






--------------------
The devil is in the detail.
The writing on the side your gun says "REPLICA" whereas the writing on the side of mine says "0.50 Calibre DESERT EAGLE".
I don't like your chances.
 
Barra
post Posted: Feb 3 2009, 06:59 AM
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They are buying back shares but very very slowly...at the current rate is will take 2 years to complete the 10% bay back .

Been waiting for a quarterly and now I see they usually do half yearly reports..so mid Feb it will be..best guess is EBITDA of
$41- 43 million for the half year (allowing for a little extra throughput for the 2nd qtr from Mitchell drilling and no one off expenses from the pipes division) Add $260m in cash from Gloucester, debt pay down, tax , should leave $100- $140 m at a guess. Not bad going for a company worth $265 m..

Anyone with a different view? Are there some negatives beyond the markets dislike for industrials atm?. I think maybe I have the blinkers on.



 
Sinner
post Posted: Jan 24 2009, 09:22 PM
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I'm 99% sure they are required to announce any shares bought back, e.g. AZZ, VTP and LRF currently. So assume AJL have bought none back.
Cheers!

 
Barra
post Posted: Jan 24 2009, 07:38 AM
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In oct AJL announced they would proceed with a 10% buy back within two months..Its now been three months and we've had no notices.

Can anyone confirm if the daily buyback notices are required by the asx or can a company start buying and keep quiet about it?

Hopefully the next quarterly will confirm what they are doing on this front.

 
Barra
post Posted: Dec 17 2008, 02:35 PM
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In reply to: Col Lector on Wednesday 17/12/08 12:16pm


G'day Col

Just saw this after responding on SGL thread.. We are thinking the same way..

This low price will have to involve some pay back or else its a sham. I note the AJL ann. does not mention the reserves at all whereas the AGK one does!

They set this up at the AGM where they started low balling the project - csg was for the big players ..hah

What happened to the spin off idea, that would have netted this and left them with a substantial slice of stock..

Either there will be some other upside or the advisor stiched em up.

Still have to hold though as I know its undervalued on a p.e basis

Cheers

Barra







 
Col Lector
post Posted: Dec 17 2008, 12:16 PM
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In reply to: Barra on Wednesday 17/12/08 10:01am

G'day Barra..., Happy days....but a bargain for AGL at first view....was hoping AJL would retain some equity in the Gloucester expanded project, (and /or net a few more $...!), .
Alliance with AGK (at Gloucester+Sydney+?) ensures plenty of work but the close matey relationship does bring concerns that top prices/margins are not going to be obtained.
Consolation in the fact that AJL likely to retain Gloucester services contract, & may pickup a bit of paid pipeline work, rather than having to finance it.

..but deal definitely underlines how undervalued AJL is......still.

I hold AJL+SGL+AGK...(& unfort just offloaded MPO) because expected crossbenefits of Gloucester+Sydney Basin's to flow to all parties. Not too concerned therefore at price, but my portfolio does have an AJL bias....

However AJL very strong balance sheet now & well positioned to fully exploit SGL/AGK Sydney Basin tenements as a complementary project. The SGL iinvestment, with Hunter Project projected at >25000PJ GIP could well dwarf Gloucester, & sooth any ongoing doubts about the timing/price of this deal.
wink.gif

 

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Barra
post Posted: Dec 17 2008, 10:01 AM
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QUOTE (Barra @ Wednesday 26/11/08 11:43am)


AJL sells Gloucester to AGL for $259 million ( being its 70%) ..Had a strong feeling that when AGL got the all that money from BG that this would be their next move.

Seems a bit cheap to me.., infact by about half , which is possibly why the market is not doing more with the sp. the 2p has is being sold at little over a $1 a gj..mates rates.

that said it still means they are in a very solid position given the market cap and EBITDA target unchanged at $80 million for 09.

Deal on Qld tenement still pending?

DYOR..but if this doesn't go to $6 when the market wakes up I will eat my hat!

 
Barra
post Posted: Nov 26 2008, 11:43 AM
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In reply to: blueice on Tuesday 11/11/08 10:50am


I don't think the buy back has started as yet or otherwise wouldn't we start to see notices?

Anyway Lucas have today reaffirmed revenues on tract for $600 million and EBITDA of $80 million.., with zero ascribed to Gloucester and Qld csg...whats that a p.e of 4.5?

and what does the market do?

Not surprised though, flip flop logic reigns supreme atm.


 
blueice
post Posted: Nov 11 2008, 10:50 AM
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This has been quite strong lately, especially today - any ideas why?? is it due to the buy back??????????

 
Col Lector
post Posted: Oct 28 2008, 07:21 PM
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QUOTE (Barra @ Thursday 23/10/08 09:44am)

Couldnt agree more Barra...as you have probably gathered. Enough though to check myself out of the psych ward and back into AJL accumulation mode...

 
 


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