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Index Trading, xjo, dow, dax, ftse
early birds
post Posted: Jun 18 2021, 12:45 AM
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The SPX’s current drawdown still is very shallow at only -1.3%. That has come after the slightly bigger 1.6% pullback to begin June. The SPX has maintained its higher lows sequence throughout.

We have seen weeks go by without big drawdowns before. Most recently, this occurred from November through late January.

There are two clear differences now compared to then:



First, the SPX continued to edge higher after making new highs from November through January. The moves weren’t huge, but they were bigger than the tiny movements we've seen recently. The index has had trouble making much headway over the last two months overall.

Secondly, the 14-Day RSI oscillated between overbought territory and the mid range back then – a supportive backdrop. Recently, the RSI just broke above a key downtrend line, but it has yet to move further into to the mid high to 60s. That will be important to see change.

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SPX bounced as i'm typing.. expecting flow into our market !! ohmy.gif smile.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 17 2021, 09:45 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 17 2021, 09:29 AM

yeah nipper
saw USD spike up on this news, but i reckon it is temporary, from chart point of view USD will dive in coming month. it's just TA view!!

think asx200 might be the best bet in next few months. imho [i'm little biased] tongue.gif




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nipper
post Posted: Jun 17 2021, 09:29 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 17 2021, 08:52 AM

Almost half the Federal Reserve’s open market committee expects a rate hike next year while more than half has two hikes by 2023 as the central bank revised up inflation and economic growth forecasts and confirmed it will set out a clear plan for asset tapering.

The more hawkish outlook triggered a sell off in US 10-year bonds, pushing yields up and smashing the Australian dollar which immediately fell 1 per cent to US76.28˘ from US77.07˘ before the announcement



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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early birds
post Posted: Jun 17 2021, 08:52 AM
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1
The SPX comes into Fed Day in a familiar position – fresh off a new all-time high on a less than thrilling day of trading.



2

While the pullbacks in February, March and early May didn’t last long, they at least provided some movement for bearish traders to work with. Not recently…



3
The same frustration has been felt from the long side of late, as a breakout to new highs hasn’t been met with the same kind of upside follow through that we saw in April.



4

Altogether, this presents a market that’s been percolating just above its former trading range…within a few measly points of achieving three upside price targets… still waiting for that next leg higher to solidify the more aggressive upside objective of 4,420…while staying smack dab in the middle of the long-term trading channel… with no 1% gains in 17 days; no 1% declines in 22 days and hardly any +/-1,000 NYSE TICK readings over the last two weeks.
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as Fed signalling tapering SPX had dip last night. buy the weakness still the game in town atm, so if see SPX dip to 4188ish might put little long in to have a quick trade.

asx200 is a lot bullish than others as USD dropped , commodities will do well, and banks will do well as rate rise is in sight .... so asx200 gonna keeps up and up. imho

 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 10 2021, 11:51 PM
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With the SPX flirting with new highs at a less than feverish pace recently, a breakout has been elusive. The index’s potential cup and handle pattern hasn’t changed much this week, but with the May CPI numbers now having been released, we’ll see if one side finally takes the reins.



2

A breakout potential has been a theme in many other areas, too. Some indices and ETFs have been trying to push to new highs (R2k, XLC, PJP), while others have been getting close to completing short-term bullish formations in the face of clear resistance (ARKK, XBI, TAN).



3
We take a look at a host of them below. Seeing which way these resolve will give us a clue about the broader market’s next direction and leadership, as well

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20 minutes into us cash market opening bell, SPX had breakout, as index shoots up so fast......... tongue.gif

might see our market follow it up tomorrow when our cash market opens!! i do think asx200 is a lot bullish than other market....imho though!!

 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 10 2021, 08:50 AM
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Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 33,600

Key resistance: 34,800

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

The oldest US index has been on a tear since the COVID-driven trough last March, though prices have taken a bit of a breather over the past two months. The recent consolidation between support at 33,600 and 34,800 has alleviated the overbought condition in the RSI indicator and allowed the longer-term 200-day exponential moving average time to “catch up” with prices; in other words, the recent price action can be viewed as a healthy pause within the context of a longer-term uptrend. Now, traders will watch for a confirmed break above 34,800 to signal the next leg higher in the uptrend, with only a break below the 50-day EMA and horizontal support at 33,600 calling the bullish bias into question.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Sideways

Key support: 13,000

Key resistance: 14,500

Near-term technical bias: Neutral

Of all four indices we examine here, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is arguably the weakest from a technical perspective. Prices are trading above both the upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs, but only marginally, and the RSI indicator hasn’t hit “overbought” territory yet this year, indicating tepid buying pressure. After months of choppy, inconsistent trade, bulls will need to see a confirmed break above the year-to-date high at 14,050 to renew the longer-term bullish trend and open the door for a move toward 15,000 this year.

DAX (GE 30) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 15,500

Key resistance: 15,750

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

In contrast, Germany’s benchmark bourse is clearly in the strongest technical position of the major indices. The DAX set a fresh record high just last week and pulled back to bounce off previous-resistance-turned-support at 15,500 in today’s trade, signaling that the breakout is more likely legitimate. The RSI is not in overbought territory, signaling the potential for more upside in the short term as long as the key 15,500 level holds.

FTSE 100 (UK 100) Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Up

Key support: 6,800

Key resistance: 7,150

Near-term technical bias: Bullish

Looking at its chart, the UK’s FTSE 100 index is a middle-of-the-road amalgamation of the other indices we’ve examined so far. The medium-term trend is clearly still bullish, with prices holding above their upward-trending 21- and 50-day EMAs and the RSI indicator consolidating after touching overbought territory last month. As with the Dow, the month-to-date sideways consolidation should be viewed as a healthy development for the longer-term trend unless near-term support in the 7,000 is broken, whereas a strong breakout above 7,150 would strengthen the bullish case for a retest of record highs in the upper-7,000s later this year.

=================it is one of the many TA studies
DTOR as always !!

as for asx200- the index looks bullish , but keep eye on commodity , bit of smoke atm!!

 


early birds
post Posted: Jun 8 2021, 09:21 AM
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As the performance grid shows, the index has four bullish patterns at its back. A breakout through its 5/17 highs would produce an upside target of 4,420.
The Value Sectors’ outperformance last week produced a fresh new high for the SPX’s Cumulative Adv-Dec Line, a positive divergence.
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chart of SPX still on the solid bullish case for the near term

asx200 is consolidating the major breakout , bullish as well!!




 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2021, 10:36 PM
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Nonfarm payrolls in May were expected to increase by 671,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

future popped up , because market expecting Fed to keep current extreme loosen monetary policy!! lmaosmiley.gif

money money money , keep printing , it's rich man's world!! ABBA lmaosmiley.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2021, 10:01 AM
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The SPX’s “quiet streak” of six straight moves of 25 bps or less could be threatened today given the early weakness.

Things surely have slowed in the second quarter, but not like we’ve seen recently. As noted last evening, this has been especially striking given the renewed interest in meme stocks.

We can choose to ignore the meme-stock wackiness, monstrous moves and acute reversals all we want, but not when they are affecting the broader indices. Needless to say, up to this point, they have NOT affected the broader indices

The same scenario played out in the very early stages of GME spiking in January. Eventually, of course, the SPX and others took a hit.

While the SPX is not extended from an RSI perspective right now, other areas have gotten short-term stretched. As noted last night, 27 ETFs we track up at least five straight days. Some sort of pause would not be a surprise.
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think SPX will holds 4185 ---the short term support.. keep eye on it

ASX200 is bullish as ever, esp AUD DROPPED big time last night's session.

 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2021, 08:46 AM
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Since 1928, the SPX has been higher in June 53/93 years (57% of the time), with an average move of +0.77%.
But those numbers are a bit skewed given that 8 of the top 10 happened between 1929 and 1955, and those were sizable up-moves.
The most recent big June advance occurred in 2019 (+6.89%).
Looking more closely, the SPX has advanced in June 11/20 years, with an average move of -0.6%. But it’s been a lot better lately, with the index having been higher in June five straight years starting in 2016.
The 20 Year track shows a jagged, but higher, first half… followed by a big dip late in the month… that has tended to mark a multi-month low. A key low was etched in June last year, too, of course.
With the SPX marginally higher in May, the index logged its fourth consecutive monthly advance. At least four straight monthly gains coming into June have happened only four prior times since 1992 (1995,1996, 2013 and 2014). The index was up in June three times (down in 2013).
On AVERAGE, the R2k has etched a bottom vs. the SPX in late May over the last 20 years, which has tended to last through June.
Over the last 20 years, VIX seasonality has displayed intra-month spikes after etching a low in May. Last June, the index shot higher by nearly 90% mid-month as the SPX cratered 5.9% on 6/10. It then dropped 54% through early August…
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still bullish on SPX. from chart point of view, SPX gonna go higher, more likely. imho

as for asx200 it looks really bullish from the chart [as it clear the 7200 again] expecting it to march higher. tongue.gif

 
 


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