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CUV, CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
xray
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 11:07 AM
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In Reply To: johnnytech's post @ Feb 12 2019, 10:13 AM

The sharks are circling.
They want the SP up as high as possible before the takeover offers come in.


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johnnytech
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 10:13 AM
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In Reply To: Johnny H's post @ Feb 12 2019, 09:51 AM

This is a intriguing release, if not just straight up odd. For one, it's posted via ASX, trying to send the message it's official status, or at least some sort of obligatory release. Maybe I'm not aware of some Australian SEC policy, but this is marketing fluff in America and not released via SEC channels.

Reading it fast, I see little to no direct investor information. This is the sort of stuff we were literally starving for 5 years ago and we'd relish in reading between the lines. But we don't need to read between the lines of investor releases anymore, so a fluff piece like this.... Well it's just kinda not what I was expecting.

Update as I know some of you asked, I finally got back in today after holding a small % of my holdings in cash as I moved money across borders. I calculated I lost about $14K USD in the transaction due to market action. I really thought it was going to go back down to high 13s (clvly) in middle February, before we get the ASX200 announcement. My pricing reads for 2 years have been really good, but the last 2 months I'm just shaking my head in wonder. I agree with Poly's long post. The market is reacting better than what feels right to me so I decided to bite the bullet and get back in. Can't explain the market nor the fluff communique, but it's all pointing to higher post approval numbers than I was expecting.


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Johnny H
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 09:51 AM
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Vitiligo "communique" released:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190212/pdf/...k50n2b46rls.pdf



--------------------
Clinuvel until my bowels release for the last time.

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polyphemus
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 08:49 AM
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In Reply To: investek's post @ Feb 12 2019, 01:48 AM

Trade volumes by exchange on the 11th - Specials are done off market and reported by the broker

Attached Image


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waz
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 06:20 AM
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In Reply To: investek's post @ Feb 12 2019, 01:48 AM

Good guess. Chi-X volume yesterday is listed as 57.34K and ASX 50.2k so total volume on both markets equals the Clinuvel & Bloomberg 107.54K.


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investek
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 01:48 AM
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In Reply To: mrdax's post @ Feb 12 2019, 12:21 AM

My educated guess is that the 50k vol figure is based on the CUV shares traded on the ASX and the 108k vol figure is based on ASX + Chi-X (CXA) trades.
https://amp.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comment...ch_vs_cxa_chix/

The same thing happened when Blijdorp bought his 1.3mil CUV shares mid last year. The massive volume wasn’t reported via Yahoo finance (and other providers that only publish the ASX vol). Fortunately Polyphemus posted news of the large trade. I doubled checked at the time and sure enough the difference was volume traded on Chi-X. It’s not that easy to get access to this info as a retail investor, perhaps someone has an IRESS / IRESS Direct account or similar and can post confirmation of the volumes across both exchanges.
https://www.commsec.com.au/support/frequent...tions/396.html#

It would also be interesting to see which brokers are doing the buying and/or the changes in monthly Top 20 holdings (I believe some holders have asked for monthly top 20 data from CUV in the past but have been met with silence, might be worth asking Mr Bull in his new role as IR Manager). I wonder if an investment bank is trying to quietly build a position before suddenly commencing coverage with a BUY rating and much higher price target just months before a pending FDA decision. (Apologies, I’m getting carried away! Sounds too much like a conspiracy theory wink.gif )


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mrdax
post Posted: Feb 12 2019, 12:21 AM
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In Reply To: sharelooker's post @ Feb 11 2019, 11:14 PM

Dunno which data is right or wrong, but it seems there are a few different data providers.

Bloomberg also lists a Vol of 108k

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CUV:AU


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sharelooker
post Posted: Feb 11 2019, 11:14 PM
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Quite big difference in volumes:

https://www.clinuvel.com/investors/share-prices ->108k


https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/CUV ->50k

Special trade arrangements?





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PunkassDerm
post Posted: Feb 11 2019, 10:16 PM
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I dunno...maybe attempts to manipulate on message boards because lack of communication from corporate?

My guess still undervalued. What is the most recent research (reliable) target price? Makes me feel another breakout imminent.
Again, I am not a sophisticated investor but sounds like shorter speak?

 
polyphemus
post Posted: Feb 11 2019, 09:38 PM
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The strength of this stock and strong volume has me a bit bemused at the moment after a negative cash flow quarter. Just should not be happening.
Sure getting inclusion into the S&P ASX 200 premier index will add to the buy side. That though is March.
But surely if you are a index fund you have no mandate to buy until after the inclusion - so they can not be buying now.If there was a positive US FDA outcome - its not about the potential double in revenue - it will be more about the future 10x revenue once funds are released by management for further trials (apply a future cash flow concept). But that would be a bet on a positive outcome, that does not hit until July.
Getting a NASDAQ listing while nice for exposure, would really be about potential capital raising to fund expansion, but that has to be based off FDA approval. No point being in the states if the company is not expanding.
It is nice to see tweets and statements on topical melanocortins but there is no time line or product and addressable market statement. R&D fell last quarter and bugger all this quarter. I assume these are the over the counter style products that are expressed on the website but never said, like dietary aids, inflammation regulation, sexual function.
Inorganic growth i.e. acquisition would send the stock price down unless it was buying knowledge. The company should not acquire pre FDA as the risk parameters should be too large and cost of finance (which apparently is monitored daily) to expensive.From what I understand (which from the above is little) the company has purchased some software to track financial reporting. That is no reason to buy more of the stock.





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