Registered Members Login:
   
Forgotten Your Details? Click Here To Recover +
Welcome To The ShareCafe Community - Talk Shares And Take Stock With Smart Investors - New Here? Click To Register >

A reminder to all members that you agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


731 Pages (Click to Jump) V  « < 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 > »    
 
  
Reply to this topic

MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
apache123
post Posted: Apr 11 2006, 09:24 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,297
Thanks: 153


The Gob has spoken about the looming bust....

QUOTE
Booms go bust when you least expect them to
Robert Gottliebsen
April 01, 2006

THE Australian stock market is enjoying the biggest boom we have seen for half a century. It beats the oil boom of the 1950s; the property boom of the early 1960s; the Poseidon boom of the early 1970s; the 1980s entrepreneurs' takeover boom that ended with the 1987 crash; and the dotcom boom of the late 1990s.

But there are lessons in the end of those booms for Australians who have never experienced a crash. Some of the longer-term warning signs are appearing.

Booms occur when there is virtually unlimited cash available for lending and/or equity investment and that cash is ignited into an optimistic buying frenzy by an event or series of dramatic events. Australia has boomed in 2005 and 2006 because we have again enjoyed the combination of a dramatic event and unlimited cash. The dramatic event was a huge rises in mineral prices caused by the Chinese driving their growth via capital works and export industries. Australia has been the best place to invest in that sort of China growth. Added to that, we have seen much better productivity among major companies. The avalanche of money needed to spark a boom came via the superannuation funds and the willingness of banks to lend large sums secured on houses. In addition, there is an amazing $US4 trillion invested in global hedge funds, many of which are fuelling mineral prices by buying on the futures market....


--------------------
Buyer beware: Do your own research before investing....
 
apache123
post Posted: Apr 8 2006, 04:40 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,297
Thanks: 153


Stirrings of a tired bull market....

QUOTE
Thursday April 6, 2:25 PM
UPDATE: Booming Australian Job Mkt Stokes Rates Concerns

.....All eyes are now on the release of first quarter inflation data on April 26, which could hold the key for a rate hike in either May or June.

Rising fuel costs could see the Reserve Bank upgrade its forecast for headline inflation. The central bank said in February headline inflation would remain close to 3.0% in 2006.

The Reserve Bank will also publish its next quarterly update on economic and policy setting on May 5. Costello will announce the government's budget on May 9.

Stephen Koukoulas said pressure on the job market will only intensify as unemployment drops below 5.0% in coming months.

"The unemployment rate is likely to break below 5.0% in the months ahead, which would be a surefire way to see wages pressures build at a time when inflation is already near the top end of the RBA's (2%-3%) band," Koukoulas said.

The strength of the economy could prompt analysts to predict that any near-term rate hike might not be just a one-off move by the Reserve Bank.

"Who is going to be the first person to call two more rate hikes from the RBA in the months ahead and a 6.0% cash rate by year end?" he asked.

"Could the economy really be that strong? Maybe."

Koukoulas pointed to the interest rate experience in New Zealand in which increases in the official cash rate were triggered by an overly tight labor market.

"Look what happened in New Zealand when the economy ran out of workers," he said. "Wages surged, inflation jumped and the RBNZ hiked rates to levels that no one imagined."

New Zealand interest rates are the highest in the industrialized world at 7.25%.


--------------------
Buyer beware: Do your own research before investing....
 
Smartman_plc
post Posted: Apr 1 2006, 02:40 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 404
Thanks: 17


In reply to: happy2 on Saturday 01/04/06 01:49pm

happy2,

I know that you are only lightening the mood, but for the USA to be exporting problems is highly likely result in them importing poblems too. Countries that are are adversely affected by the US problems are likely to reduce demand for US goods and services thus causing a cycle of decline. sadsmiley02.gif



--------------------
Cheers,
Smartman
 
happy2
post Posted: Apr 1 2006, 02:19 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 3,449
Thanks: 10


In reply to: zac12 on Friday 31/03/06 10:33am

I suppose exporting problems is better than importing problems.



--------------------
Have a good one

Happy 2





"Knowledge is a process of piling up facts; wisdom lies in their simplification".

Caveat Emptor: the above comments are merely opinion, not advice.
 
zac12
post Posted: Mar 31 2006, 09:33 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 98


In reply to: Sandalaphon on Thursday 30/03/06 09:48pm

Trouble is it doesn't just stay with them, it's where it might end up that is the worry. America has a tendency to export its problems. unsure.gif wacko.gif


Zac

 
Sandalaphon
post Posted: Mar 30 2006, 09:48 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 25


In reply to: zac12 on Thursday 30/03/06 06:11am

Well well Bernanke and the Boyz did'nt waste any time with exploiting the M3 data..a round rumor on the net of late that the Fed boyz have printed up 2 trillion $$$, yep 2 trillion.

lmaosmiley.gif

Wonder if this is true, would'nt doubt it!


http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm



 

Featured Stock Stories





zac12
post Posted: Mar 30 2006, 06:11 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 98


Article from English language Al Jazeera:


'Asia must prepare for dollar collapse'
by
Tuesday 28 March 2006 8:33 AM GMT


ADB: Possibility of a dollar collapse small but fallout huge

East Asian economies need to prepare for a possible collapse of the US dollar, the Asian Development Bank says.


The warning comes as the US trade deficit reaches a record high and global interest rates continue to rise.



Masahiro Kawai, the ADB's head of regional economic integration, said on Tuesday: "Any shock hitting the US economy or the global market may change investors' perceptions given the existing global current account imbalance.



"Our suggestion to Asian countries is: Don't take this continuous financing of the US current account deficit as given. If something happens then East Asian economies have to be prepared."



He said because of the highly interdependent nature of East Asian economies, if countries worked together to allow their currencies to collectively appreciate against a tumbling dollar then the cost of adjustment would be spread.



"The possibility of a US dollar collapse or sharp decline may be small at this point but it would generate very significant turmoil so East Asian economies ... ought to be ready for that."



The Manila-based ADB is working on several indices of Asian currencies that could be helpful to monitor exchange rate movements in the case of a sharp dollar decline, although its main intention is to help develop regional bond markets.



Political sensitivities



However, the ADB is still trying to decide which currencies to include in this Asian Currency Unit (ACU) amid political sensitivities about the inclusion of the Taiwan dollar given China's claim over the island.



The ADB had apparently been aiming to launch the ACU - a weighted basket of Asian currencies - before the bank's annual meeting in May, but Kawai said this would not be possible.



He said there was no specific launch date yet but hopefully it would be unveiled "in the next few months".



But Kawai played down suggestions that the ACU could foreshadow a single Asian currency like the European Currency Unit (ECU), which existed for two decades before the creation of the euro in 1999.



He said: "The ECU had an official status but the ACU has no such official status. We are not in the position to decide whether this should become a real currency or not."


AFP
By

You can find this article at:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/50B...42CB3280A4F.htm


 
Sandalaphon
post Posted: Mar 29 2006, 01:47 PM
  Quote Post


Posts: 25


Looks like my timing was out by 1 month, oh well..scroll down to my last few posts


http://www.ken-welch.com/



So got your BloomBerg screens turned on and Popcorn ready..seems like the fireworks are being primed..God Yaweh help us if HE allows it.

I hope we are agian given more time.


sad.gif

 
apache123
post Posted: Mar 29 2006, 04:12 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,297
Thanks: 153


Its only a matter of time before the US interest rates begin to bite....

15 increases in interest rates in 15 months must be giving US/global investors something to think about.

QUOTE
Reserve warns on good-time market risks
March 29, 2006

THE Reserve Bank has warned investors that good economic times could be leading them to underestimate the risks they are taking, saying global financial markets are developing a degree of "myopia".

The warning, in the half-yearly Financial Stability Review, comes on the eve of another expected rise in US interest rates.

Economists forecast that the Fed would increase interest rates for the 15th time in 15 meetings since mid-2004, lifting the baseline rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent.

Speculation of another rate rise has driven the Australian dollar to an 18-month low against the US dollar.....


--------------------
Buyer beware: Do your own research before investing....
 
apache123
post Posted: Mar 28 2006, 07:33 AM
  Quote Post


Posts: 5,297
Thanks: 153


This is good for unhedged miners but may put pressure on non export orientated stocks as overseas investors may attempt to sell now and buy back near the dollars bottom...

QUOTE
Dollar far from a dazzler as slump continues
March 28, 2006

THE Australian dollar dropped to near an 18-month low as losses in the New Zealand dollar spurred concern that overseas investors were about to sell.

The Australian and NZ dollars are closely tied because both economies depend on the exports of commodities. The NZ dollar fell to a 22-month low after a government report showed exports had fallen for a fourth month in five.

The currencies move almost in lock-step, with data over the past five years showing they have a correlation of 0.98.

"The Australian dollar is being dragged down by the New Zealand dollar," said Commonwealth Bank senior currency strategist Richard Grace. Investors were growing nervous about further drops, he said.

At the 5pm close, the Aussie was trading at US70.44, down more than half a US cent from Friday's close of US71.04.

Mr Grace said he believed it would drop to US68¢ within a month.


--------------------
Buyer beware: Do your own research before investing....
 
 


731 Pages (Click to Jump) V  « < 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 > » 

Back To Top Of Page
Reply to this topic


You agree through the use of ShareCafe, that you understand and accept the TERMS OF USE.


TERMS OF USE  -  CONTACT ADMIN  -  ADVERTISING