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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Dec 5 2018, 07:14 AM
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The yield on the three-year Treasury note surpassed its five-year counterpart on Monday. When a so-called yield curve inversion happens — short-term yields trading above longer-term rates — a recession could follow, though it is often years away after the signal triggers.

==============================================

10 year yield is under 3%.

US market will be closed tonight!



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blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 4 2018, 10:39 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 3 2018, 09:53 AM

Excitement didn't last long sadsmiley02.gif
AFR
QUOTE
G20 dinner leaves bad aftertaste on Wall St
The White House's 'cautious optimism' about a ceasefire with China has revived a battered Wall Street, but lingering doubts about a lasting solution have left investors wary of making long-term bets.

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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 3 2018, 10:43 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 3 2018, 10:39 AM

Love Davids Rowe's cartoon - Never bullshit a bullshitter in a China shop - APT get's a plug also biggrin.gif
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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 3 2018, 10:39 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 3 2018, 09:53 AM

I noticed that.... Xmas season is 4-6 weeks max, and that's what I'll give it.

Nice top up to what is generally a "professionals" market, anyhow. (retail being more in holiday mode)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 3 2018, 09:53 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 2 2018, 08:10 PM

QUOTE
yup


Hope people factor in the cease fire is for 90 days and not permanent otherwise they could be left with a hangover in the new year sadsmiley02.gif

Australian market surges on US-China trade ceasefire
QUOTE
By business reporter David Chau
Posted 13 minutes ago

Australian markets surged after China and the United States agreed to a trade ceasefire at the G20 summit over the weekend.

US President Donald Trump agreed to hold off for three months — until March 1 — before he increases tariffs on $US250 billion worth of Chinese imports.

In the meantime, negotiators from Beijing and Washington will attempt to negotiate a deal to de-escalate their trade war, which has plagued global markets for the past year.

The benchmark ASX 200 had lifted by a sharp 1.6 per cent to 5,758 at 10:15am (AEDT).

The broader All Ordinaries index jumped by a similar level to 5,838.

Energy, resources and health care were the best-performing sectors, gaining more than 2 per cent each.

Some of the biggest gains were seen in the share prices of Santos (+4.9pc), Fortescue Metals (+3.8pc), Origin Energy (+3.3pc) and Qantas (+2.7pc).

The Australian dollar had also rebounded 0.6 per cent to 73.6 US cents.

More to come




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 2 2018, 08:10 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 2 2018, 02:12 PM

QUOTE
Santa Claus rally coming
yup.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 2 2018, 02:12 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 2 2018, 01:35 PM

Presidents Trump and Xi Agree Not to Impose Further Tariffs From January
Saleha Mohsin, Jennifer Epstein, Peter Martin and Nick Wadhams
December 2, 2018, 7:57 AM GMT+11 Updated on December 2, 2018, 2:12 PM GMT+11
QUOTE
Leaders’ dinner at G-20 yields 90-day pause in tariffs hike
Investors eager for break in tension between U.S. and China

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...nd=premium-asia

Santa Claus rally coming up?



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 2 2018, 01:35 PM
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Global markets zig, ASX sags
QUOTE
While Wall Street regained its swagger last week — up almost 5 per cent — the ASX fell again, down almost 1 per cent over the five sessions.

It was the best week for US equities since late 2011 and helped float the boats of European and most Asian markets.

The solid finish to the week also put some optimism into ASX futures trading, with a positive start to December priced in.

Markets on Friday's close:
ASX SPI 200 futures +0.4pc at 5,699 ASX 200 (Friday's close) -1.6pc at 5,667
AUD: 72.2 US cents, 64.7 euro cents, 57.3 British pence, 83.0 Japanese yen, $NZ1.06
US: Dow Jones +0.8pc at 25,538 S&P500 +0.8pc at 2,760 NASDAQ +0.8pc at 7,331
Europe: FTSE -0.8pc at 6,980 DAX -0.4pc at 11,257 EuroStoxx50 flat at 3,173
Commodities: Brent oil -1.4pc at $US59.07/barrel, Gold -0.1pc at $US1222/ounce, Iron ore $US64.90/tonne
After a month most big funds would prefer to forget, a soothing speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and the hope some sort of trade rapprochement between the US and China was possible fuelled brisk buying of slabs of shares which had been dumped in previous weeks.

The exception were energy stocks, still blighted by falling oil prices, and individual embarrassments such as Marriott International and the giant conglomerate General Electric.

GE tumbled more than 5 per cent following reports it had not been entirely open about the performance of its struggling insurance business.

Marriott fell by about the same due to the activities of some rather unseemly and uninvited guests.

The hotel chain confessed its Starwood Reservation system had been broken into, with hackers stealing the records of up to 500 million customers.

Commodities were a mixed bag.

Iron ore continued to slide due to falling profitability in the Chinese steel sector, while oil arrested its slump on the belief OPEC would announce another round of production cuts later this week.

US-China trade talks

Much of the markets' trading is balanced precariously on the outcome of talks between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping off to the side at the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires.

Despite some optimism, the consensus view is there will be no agreement, just a pledge to keep working towards one. There were no significant announcements, or tweets, immediately after the private meeting hailing a breakthrough.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch chief china economist, Helen Qiao, said she would be surprised if a deal was brokered.

"The Trump administration will unlikely scale back the tariff measures unless he sees pain in US political support, the economy or stock market. And, so far, the costs for the US are simply too small to motivate a serious negotiation towards a deal," she wrote in a note before the summit.

But "no deal" should not be viewed as particularly alarming, according to Ms Qiao.

"If our base case plays out and no trade deal is agreed at the meeting, we expect Chinese policymakers to roll out more easing measures to shore up growth," she said.

"The Government not only wants to shore up the economy for its own sake, but also to put itself in a better negotiating position.

"We also believe China has the tools, on the monetary, fiscal and property front, to inoculate itself against a further escalation in the trade war."


read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-02/aust...ection=business
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--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 29 2018, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE
During a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Powell said interest rates were “just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy.”

The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy-making body, has raised the federal funds rate three times this year to the current range of 2% to 2.25%, and decided on Nov. 8 to leave the rate unchanged.

The next FOMC rate announcement is expected on Dec. 19.
keep 'em guessing



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 25 2018, 07:33 PM
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In Reply To: bg99's post @ Nov 21 2018, 09:54 AM

Looks like more market pain coming up?

QUOTE
ASX now in a correction for the first time since 2015
By business reporter Stephen Letts

A per cent here, a few per cent there and soon enough you're back in correction territory.

To little fanfare, Australia's benchmark ASX200 this week tumbled down below the 10 per cent peak-to-trough line, condemning it to its first correction since 2015.

It took the ASX more than two-and-a-half years — April 2015 to December 2017 — to clamber back out the last one.

The sell-off earlier this year didn't pass "correction" muster. While dramatic and headline grabbing, the market fell little more than 6 per cent from its January peak to the April bottom.

Over in the US, Wall Street has just slipped into correction mode, again.

It's the second 10 per cent-plus funk the US has tumbled into this year. All up, it has been in correction mode for nine months since January.


QUOTE
However, the futures market has taken its lead from the US and not the ASX's mini-bounce on Friday, pricing in a sharp fall to start the week here.

Markets on Friday's close:

ASX SPI 200 futures -0.6pc at 5,666 ASX 200 (Friday's close) +0.4pc at 5,716

AUD: 72.3 US cents, 63.8 euro cents, 56.4 British pence, 81.6 Japanese yen, $NZ1.07

US: Dow Jones -0.7pc at 25,413 S&P500 -0.7pc at 2,633 NASDAQ -0.1pc at 6,939

Europe: FTSE -0.1pc at 6,953 DAX +0.5pc at 11,193 EuroStoxx50 +0.3pc at 3,137

Commodities: Brent oil -0.5pc at $US59.19/barrel, Gold -0.4pc at $US1221/ounce, Iron ore -2.8pc $US70.13/tonne

Oil's slide continues
The capitulation in equities is small beer compared to the global oil market.

US oil fell almost 8 per cent on Friday, the global benchmark, Brent crude, was down 6.6 per cent.

It is the seventh consecutive week prices have fallen.

Up until the retreat, debate had been about whether $US100 a barrel was in sight. Oil's down below $US60 barrel.

Production is again outpacing demand and a widespread economic slowdown next year is increasingly being factored into the price.

Stockpiles in Asia are building up. Singapore's refineries are reporting the highest inventories in more than three months.

Among the big winners are Australian motorists who have seen the cost of filling up the average tank fall by around $12 in recent weeks.

That fall is likely to accelerate.

The Saudi-led OPEC cartel meets early next month.

On one hand the Saudi's owe Mr Trump a big favour and will be under pressure to keep production up and prices down. On the other, budgetary problems across OPEC states dictate the need to pump prices back up.

The current betting is the meeting in Vienna will deliver cuts of around 1.4 million barrels a day.

"We expect that OPEC will manage the market in 2019 and assess the probability of an agreement to reduce production at around 2-in-3," Morgan Stanley commodities strategists told their clients.

"In that scenario, Brent prices likely recover back into the $70s."

Iron ore looks shaky too
Iron ore is another market looking rather shaky at the moment.

It is still tootling along above $US70 a tonne (just) at the moment, but its future prospects are clouded by a dramatic collapse in the profitability and prices of Chinese steelmakers.

Margins have collapsed from a heady 1200RMB a tonne ($240 per tonne) to barely break even in 18 months.

CBA's mining & energy commodities analyst Vivek Dhar says the crushed margins will affect Australian iron ore prices in two phases.

"First, low margins will see steel mills prioritise affordability over productivity and emission reduction," Mr Dhar said.

"That will see mills move to low-grade ore, a trend that has already resulted in mid-grade (62 per cent content) and high-grade (65 per cent content) iron ore premiums falling.

"Second, low margins will discourage steel mills to produce, weighing on iron ore demand and prices. That appears to be happening now."

Mr Dhar said it was surprising to see steel prices collapse so suddenly, given reforms to reduce capacity and improve air quality had supported healthy operating rates and margins.

"Subdued steel margins will eventually mean weaker iron ore and coking coal prices as mills struggle to stay afloat."


read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-25/asx-...ection=business



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
 


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