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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 03:18 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 3 2019, 10:41 AM

RBA keeps rates on hold at 1pc despite stalling economy
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Posted 45 minutes ago

QUOTE
The Reserve Bank has kept its official interest rate on hold, despite indications the economy slowed sharply over the June quarter.

The RBA board decided to keep its powder dry, having made consecutive cuts in June and July to the fresh historic low of 1 per cent.

The decision was taken ahead of the release of second quarter GDP figures tomorrow, which are expected to show the economy has slowed to its weakest growth in almost two decades.

It also comes as weak retail sales figures from July, released while the board met, pointed to the previous rate cuts doing little so far to fire up consumer spending.

Retail sales fell 0.1 per cent in July, with discretionary sales down a particularly poor 0.3 per cent, against expectations of a modest rise over the month.

The market had looked through the recent flow of disappointing data and priced in very little likelihood of the RBA cutting again in September.

However, a full 25 basis point cut is expected by November, with a second cut by April next year.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/rba-...conomy/11473456



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 01:54 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 3 2019, 12:10 PM

but GNI is negative
QUOTE
The gross national income (GNI), previously known as gross national product (GNP), is the total domestic and foreign output claimed by residents of a country, consisting of gross domestic product (GDP), plus factor incomes earned by foreign residents, minus income earned in the domestic economy by nonresidents
- this is why we are feeling poorer (on a per capita basis)




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 12:10 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 3 2019, 10:41 AM

QUOTE
Australia records first current account surplus in 44 years
The odds of Australia recording a negative June quarter GDP reading have fallen sharply following the release of Balance or Payments figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Net exports - the differential between export and import volumes - will boost quarterly GDP by 0.6 percentage points, double the amount expected by economists. The result will offset the larger-than-expected decline in business inventories during the quarter, lessening the risk of a negative GDP figure being recorded.

Sarah Hunter, chief economist at BIS Oxford Economics, said the result reflected higher commodity exports and weaker exports.

'The numbers highlight the underlying weakness in domestic demand," Ms Hunter said in a note. "In volume terms, imports fell 1.5 per cent, with a 2.9 per cent fall in consumption goods. This confirms that conditions were challenging for households in [the first half of the year]."

Helped by booming commodity prices during the quarter, Australia recorded its first current account surplus in 44 years in the June quarter. At $5.9 billion, the result was quadruple the level expected by financial markets.


Market responding



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 11:50 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 3 2019, 10:41 AM

QUOTE
Retails are tipped to lift by 0.2 per cent after seasonal adjustments, half the level seen a month earlier.


QUOTE
Australian retail sales go backwards
Australian retail sales fell 0.1 per cent in July after seasonal adjustments, missing economist forecasts for a gain of 0.2 per cent.

According to the ABS, sales fell in all categories except for household goods and food retailing, led by a 0.6 per cent fall in spending at cafes, restaurants and takeaway food outlets.

Sales declined in all states and territories except for Western Australia and the Northern Territory during the month.

After a weak first half of the year, the disappointing July update suggests income tax rebates and interest rate cuts have yet to encourage Australians to splash out at the shops.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 3 2019, 10:41 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 2 2019, 10:03 AM

Data deluge arrives midway through the session
QUOTE
It’s going to be another huge day of economic data releases in Australia with July retail sales and the last of Australia’s June quarter GDP inputs the headline acts. All will be released at 11.30am AEST.

Retails are tipped to lift by 0.2 per cent after seasonal adjustments, half the level seen a month earlier.

Markets will also receive government demand and current account data for the June quarter ahead of the release of Australia’s GDP report tomorrow. Both are large parts of the Australian economy and will influence the final GDP figure. Net exports are tipped to add 0.3 percentage points to quarterly GDP growth. While there is no forecast offered for government demand, economist at the National Australia Bank are looking for it to boost June quarter GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

Rounding off a busy day for investors, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its September interest rate decision at 2.30pm AEST. Cash rate futures put the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at around 13 per cent, suggesting markets will react to the tone of the statement in the absence of a shock move from the RBA.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 2 2019, 10:03 AM
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QUOTE
Markets on Friday's close:
ASX SPI 200 futures -0.1pc at 6,566; ASX 200 (Friday's close) +1.5pc at 6,604
AUD: 67.4 US cents; 61.3 euro cents; 55.4 British pence; 71.6 Japanese yen; $NZ1.08
US: Dow Jones +0.2pc at 26,403; S&P500 +0.1pc at 2,926; NASDAQ -0.1pc at 7,962
Europe: FTSE +0.3pc at 7,207; DAX +0.8pc at 11,939; EuroStoxx50 +0.5pc at 3,427
Commodities: Brent oil -1.1pc at $US60.43/barrel; Gold -0.5pc at $US1,520/ounce; Iron ore $US86.00/tonne
Friday's rally helped drag the ASX into the black over the week, but it still dropped 3 per cent over a month dominated by the release of corporate Australia's full-year results and rising unease of global prospects.

It's difficult to apportion blame, but neither theme was overly positive.

Soft reporting season
Depending on your taste, the reporting season was either blancmange-like (a bit soft) or a curate's egg (partly good, partly bad).

Morgan Stanley strategist Chris Nichol said the results season coughed up one of the weaker growth outcomes for some time, and looking ahead the prospects were "more downdraft than uplift for 2020".

Morgan Stanley's key observations included:

Earnings "beats-to-misses" were below expectations
Revenue growth was below expectations with 10 per cent of companies exceeding forecasts and 18 per cent falling short
Healthcare, industrials, telecoms and info tech on average performed strongly in terms of market reaction, while miners and consumer staples disappointed the most
Of companies that provided earnings guidance, only 18 per cent provided upgrades for next year compared to 39 per cent guiding down
Dividends were broadly in line with estimates, although miners disappointed and financials gave more positive surprises
"The current stimulus has certainly stabilized some of the downside from a domestic perspective. But to get a credible recovery in motion we continue to call for additional stimulus — and not just rate cuts," Mr Nichol said.

Iron ore rout
Iron ore has just suffered its worst month on record with prices dropping about 30 per cent.

There are a number of factors:

Increasing supply as Brazil re-enters the market
Falling profitability in Chinese steel mills
And concerns about the slowing global economy.

Veteran UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock said that despite the unprecedented volatility this year prices may be stabilising.

"Record Chinese steel output [in the first half of the year] has been principal in keeping prices at elevated levels and fundamentals tight. Is it topping out though? Potentially," Dr Lawcock said.

"Official output in July slowed, while traders' steel inventory has lifted and rebar [construction steel] and hot-rolled coil [manufacturing steel] prices have slipped.

"Trade war headwinds have dampened short-term sentiment, but we maintain that any prospective Chinese stimulus will favour bulks [such as iron ore and coal] over base metals."

The UBS house view is iron ore is oversold with its fourth-quarter price forecast at $US90 per tonne, well above the current spot price of about $US82 to $US85 per tonne.

Going into 2020, Dr Lawcock says, the market will come back into balance and the price will slide down to the UBS long-term target of $US55 a tonne.

That's a fair trek down, but still offering a pretty hefty margin for the miners on production costs of around $US15 a tonne.

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-01/gdp-...ection=business



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 2 2019, 09:56 AM
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Last day reporting laggards August 30 2019
September 1, 2019
QUOTE
This list tracks the 348 last day laggards who waited until Friday August 30, 2019 to release their results to the ASX. We're comparing it with what happened 10 years ago in the August 2009 reporting season at the peak of the GFC wipe-out when 275 companies reported on the last day possible.


QUOTE
The worst hour for reporting losses to the @ASX on Friday occurred from 4-5pm when their were 44 losses and just 8 profits. See the full last day laggards list here

http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2019/0...-2150-9231.html



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Sep 1 2019, 05:19 PM
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Fake news Rally?
Attached File  YU7NDgfQ.png ( 64.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


China, U.S. kick off new round of tariffs in trade war

QUOTE
Ben Blanchard, Shivani Singh
BEIJING (Reuters) - China and the United States began imposing additional tariffs on each other’s goods on Sunday, the latest escalation in a bruising trade war, despite signs that talks would resume some time this month.

A new round of tariffs took effect from 0401 GMT, with Beijing’s levy of 5% on U.S. crude marking the first time the fuel has been targeted since the world’s two largest economies started their trade war more than a year ago.

The Trump administration will begin collecting 15% tariffs on more than $125 billion in Chinese imports, including smart speakers, Bluetooth headphones and many types of footwear.

In retaliation, China started to impose additional tariffs on some of the U.S. goods on a $75-billion target list. Beijing did not specify the value of the goods that face higher tariffs from Sunday.

The extra tariffs of 5% and 10% were levied on 1,717 items of a total of 5,078 products originating from the United States. Beijing will start collecting additional tariffs on the rest from Dec. 15.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trad...r-idUSKCN1VM0V9
Attached File  EDI2F1gXUAAWNB_.jpg ( 129.69K ) Number of downloads: 0




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Aug 28 2019, 12:29 PM
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Construction recession deepens and spreads across all sectors
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Updated 7 minutes ago

QUOTE
Key points:
Construction work has fallen 11pc over the past twelve months and, in terms of value, it has retreated to levels reported at the start of 2017
Home building has fallen for four consecutive quarters to be down 10pc over the year
The "ugly" result is expected to have a material impact on second quarter GDP, slicing around 0.4ppt off growth

The slowdown in Australia's construction industries has intensified, with a far sharper than expected contraction over the second quarter.

In seasonally adjusted terms, overall construction work fell by 3.8 per cent over the three months, well short of the more optimistic, but still weak, market forecast of a 1 per cent decline.

Over the year, construction work has fallen by more than 11 per cent, with the total level of work done down to a level last seen more than two years ago.

As expected, residential construction was the biggest drag, down 5.1 per cent for the quarter and almost 10 per cent for the year.

It is the fourth consecutive quarter housing construction has fallen.

Engineering construction, which takes in big infrastructure projects, failed to offset the housing slowdown and fell 1 per cent for the quarter to be down 16 per cent over the year.

Construction in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT fell for the third consecutive quarter, but thing were worse elsewhere.

South Australia has been going backwards for four quarters. It is five quarters in Queensland, six in Western Australia and seven in the Northern Territory.

Tasmania is relatively healthy, having reported just two successive quarters of falling activity.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-28/cons...2-2019/11455886



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Aug 25 2019, 05:13 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Aug 24 2019, 11:21 AM

Trumps attack on Powell is misguided, but not for the reasons that he is Trump.
The US Fed has always done what it thinks is best for the big end of town.
Whether it thinks that by making the powerful and the wealthy(usually an intersecting set) even more powerful and wealthy, then some of the wealth (but never the power) t will trickle down to the less well off, or it just doesn't give a F$*^ about the folk below it is a moot point.
I am inclined to latter view.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
 


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