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MARKET OUTLOOK - Global & Local, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
early birds
post Posted: Mar 8 2019, 09:02 AM
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...eory-is-garbage

BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said he’s not a proponent of modern monetary theory.

“That’s garbage,” Fink said in an interview with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television Thursday. “I’m a big believer that deficits do matter. I’m a big believer that deficits are going to be driving interest rates much higher and it could drive them to an unsustainable level. ”

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i tent to agree with him. people need to understand what is the "live with your means" these days.




Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 11:03 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 7 2019, 10:43 AM

QUOTE
Camry in the coal mine
... it is very plausible that new car sales are an early warning sign of impending doom. Buying a brand new car is generally the biggest discretionary purchase a household makes.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:43 AM
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US trade deficit hits a 10-year high amid Donald Trump's trade war
By business reporter Stephanie Chalmers, wires
QUOTE
US stocks lost ground after the country's trade deficit widened in December and the shortfall with China worsened, despite US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

The trade deficit increased by nearly 19 per cent in December, leading to a $US621 billion gap for 2018 — the largest since 2008.

Despite Washington imposing tariffs on $US250 billion worth of Chinese goods, the goods deficit with China rose to all-time high last year.

"Perhaps Donald Trump will now discover that tweets and bluster alone won't dramatically shrink the trade deficit. The administration's fiscal policies have helped to boost the trade deficit," the Alliance for American Manufacturing president Scott Paul told Reuters.

Markets are struggling for direction as traders await any update on negotiations between the US and China on a trade agreement.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book, its regular report on economic conditions.

The Fed said slowing global growth and the government shutdown weighed on the US economy at the start of the year but that it continued to grow.

However, the central bank said the manufacturing sector cited concerns about the trade tensions, including "weakening global demand, higher costs due to tariffs, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty".

read more - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/us-t...ection=business

On the home front.......

Australia's GDP shows we're in a type of 'recession' and car dealers are bearing the brunt
By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated about 3 hours ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/car-...ection=business



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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nipper
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:36 AM
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People are struggling to define the New Normal. Probably because it's all abnormal, uncharted territory. Scary.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
early birds
post Posted: Mar 7 2019, 10:31 AM
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It's hard to think of a scenario where interest rates would need to go up this year. The inflation pressures are very benign, wage growth remains low and the current rate of wage growth is unlikely to generate an inflation rate of 2.5 per cent," Dr Lowe said.

"There are quite a lot of things weighing on the rate of inflation at the moment so I think it's quite unlikely that inflation is going to be a problem any time soon. And if it's not, then we can keep with the current setting of monetary policy for some time."

He also disputed that low rates fuelled the growth of property prices to unsustainable levels, conceding that while interest rates played a small part this was overshadowed by the inflexibility of housing supply to meet the groundswell of demand supported by population growth.

Supply eventually caught up, but arrived later, he said.

https://www.afr.com/markets/rba-defies-the-...y_Sent=07032019

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rate is too low -----so. no plan to cut it RBA
wondering .what if housing price down another 15% this year?? don't think rate cut will help much IMHO.



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early birds
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 03:01 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 6 2019, 10:52 AM

Please loosen monetary policy before things get even worse.
==================

the rate already at historic low, how you gonna loosen it???? HOW??

RBA screwed the rates up alright. they should raise it when they had chance two years ago. now RBA almost run out bullets.

i guess we have to whethering this down tern without the medicine from RBA----witch will running longer and deeper i'm afraid !! cool.gif



 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 11:27 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Mar 6 2019, 10:52 AM

For anyone interested, here is the RBA's - The Australian Economy and Financial Markets Chart Pack | March 2019
https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart...-03-06-12-24-40




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 10:52 AM
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Posts: 6,791
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Australia's economy is cooling rapidly, growing at just 2.3pc last year
QUOTE
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Posted 12 minutes ago

Australia's economy hit the brakes at the end of last year, growing at just 0.2 per cent over the fourth quarter.

The weak result dragged down Australia's economic growth over 2018 to 2.3 per cent, well below the Reserve Bank's optimistic call of 2.8 per cent and beneath even the more pessimistic analyst forecasts.

More to come.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/gdp-q4-2018/10874592

Some interesting comments from Stephen Koukoulas - https://twitter.com/TheKouk

"I wonder if Mr Morrison and Mr Frydenberg will still bang on about the "strong" economy?"
"These are the weakest back to back GDP figures since 2006 - dreadful"
"Annualised GDP growth in second half of 2018 a dismal 1%..."
"Bye bye budget surplus"
"Per Capita GDP last 2 quarters: -0.1% and -0.2% - Ouch!"
"Whoops - absolutely horrible GDP data"
"Big hint from Lowe - get set for upside: AUD 0.7085 +++"
"So we have a per capita GDP recession:
Two quarters were GDP per capita goes backwards:
A rare event:
Other times:
2006
2000
1991"
"Dear RBA
You screwed up.
Economy on cusp of a very hard landing; inflation below target; record wealth destruction; labour underutilisation just off record highs.
Please loosen monetary policy before things get even worse.
Sincerely, TheKouk"
Attached File(s)
Attached File  D074q9lVAAAk3GY.png ( 38.13K ) Number of downloads: 2

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 07:42 AM
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Posts: 6,450
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QUOTE
"If we have another five years where workers don’t get their normal share of productivity growth [that is, if wages don’t return to growing a per cent or so faster than prices each year], we’ll have all sorts of economic, social and political problems".

Dr Phillip Lowe, Governor, RBA.



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
plastic
post Posted: Mar 6 2019, 03:43 AM
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Last time I saw headlines like this Australia went in to a 20-30 year mining boom. Must be about due for similar in biotech.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/ar...jectid=12209714

QUOTE
Experts share grim warning over Australia's economic future







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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
 


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