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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
kahuna1
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 02:26 PM
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In reply to: spot on Wednesday 23/03/05 01:55pm

Hi,

Yes its all a bet on the future.

My own, for the little it is worth.

Not one normally calling doom and gloom and this is not one that happened one day in the Dow. A few factors in there. Fed, our market stalling, lack of any correction ect.

Plenty willing to keep buying today on dips.

Short term all I am talking about is a correction, nothing more.

My own ..... calls

Oil down rather than up short term. Maybe US$48- before higher later in the year.

Dow to 9,886 short term.

ASX 200 correction to 3964 possibly, however well below the 4180 level at present.

Who knows.

Maybe a one day wonder ........

Long term

OIL gradually higher into 2010 and beyond

A$ to struggle at higher levels and to be a lot lower 2008.

As to the markets longer term, bullish on resource especially energy, bearish on banks and retail sector.

Probably and very possibly wrong on every one of my crystal ball calls.
Thats what makes a market, differening views and actions taken.


Only time will tell the future.

Thanks for your replies. Interesting how we each see the market at present.

Cheers



--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
spot
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 12:55 PM
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there is this obsession with what the DOW did overnight.

for players trying to ride the macro trend in equities, i think they are watching the wrong thing. far more relevent to watch the T-bonds. the reason is because the dominoes fall in a certain order.

witness the crash in the T-bonds in early '87 and the crash of the US equities six months later.
witness the massive bear in the T-bonds in 1999 and the US equity market tops in 2000.
witness how the bonds reacted to the latest rate rise - they didn't fall out of bed.

there is every evidence that the NASDAQ and SP500 are in secular bear markets.
it is my belief that the DOW is in the same secular bull that started in '82. i think it far more likely that the DOW will take out 11000 than 10200 and then work its way to all new all-time highs. we'll see - all you can do is bet on how you see the future.

think 1150-1160 will call the SP500 low.



 
mminion
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 12:41 PM
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In reply to: kahuna1 on Wednesday 23/03/05 01:23pm

In recent years there has always been a "drop" around Easter… in many ways it can be linked back to the chance of a terrorist event

~ 4 day weekend VS 2 day (the longer the time the higher the risk that an "event" will happen on one of these non-trading days (and you'll be caught in the drop)

~ Easter, it's a world wide holiday and also a highly christian event (also security levels are lower due to staff on holidays)

On a side note, I agree with spot point… if you look long term the current rise isn't too alarming

Cheers
Matt




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Don't stall a plane
 
kahuna1
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 12:23 PM
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In reply to: Mookie on Wednesday 23/03/05 12:43pm

Hi Mookie,

Longer term still love HDR on several levels.
Just my own personal view of course.

P/E once Ching come on line will be very low.
P/E when Tiof comes on will bring it even lower.

Confirmation of TIOF at 300 mmboe plus still a positive.

Like the prospects of HDR still finding a lot more Mauritianai.
Like blue sky of other property HDR owns.

Still bullish long tem on oil price.

But I don't own a single HDR share.
Sold into the rally above $2.00 but was sq long before the high average ... not great when it was 2.12 trading ....

My view longer term unchanged.
Just being a trader go in and out all the time.
Looking to buy on dips.
Long term view unchanged.

Run the risk, especially with shares you love they keep going up.

Liked both WPL and CEY. In fact loved WPL, more than HDR, yet sold out too early and had to suffer the rise seen in the last few weeks, Same with CEY.

Hoping and awaiting a decent pullback in both to re enter.
Might not get it, thats the risk you run loosing your core position especially with stocks you like.

Overall long term view unchanged for HDR.
Fact is as the price goes down they become more and more attractive longer term just because they are cheaper. My own long term valuation assumptions have not changed and the lower any stock falls if say I think it goes to $4- ... the more attractive it becomes.

Don't read anything into my selling. Very likely I could be totally wrong and this is a one day correction. The older I get the less I realize I know.

This correction I feel even if correct might go on for a little while, but longer term I expect the Energy situation to remain the same and eventually over time we see Oil rise.
Short term, pullback may happen, could go to 64 then 48 then higher or from here at 56 to 48 to 75 .......

Trading is my bread and butter so focus is shorter term than say an investors who trades once or twice a year.

Longer term I remain the same. But buying HDR at 192 as opposed to 202 means a 5% return to me .... but run the risk of being square when something you expect to happen at some stage happens.

Sorry long winded ..... usual for me.
So much cash ... it stops me from being tempted to try and pick the lows for today ....

CHeers





--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
dory
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 12:15 PM
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In reply to: spot on Wednesday 23/03/05 12:05pm

nice pull back on low volume
cheers
Attached File(s)
 


 
spot
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 12:05 PM
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doesn't look like a major top to me. looks like one of those a swift sell offs typical of bull markets. there's been no indication of any distribution near the last high.

our market has been one of the strongest equity markets in the world. yet it has not yet doubled the '87 top. i would expect it to go well past that.









 


kahuna1
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 11:58 AM
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In reply to: itucker on Wednesday 23/03/05 12:18pm

Hi Itucker,

Well certainly missed some of the moves over the last 4 weeks.
As the market reaches new highs each time I become more and more nervous.
The cash being over 50% is only since about 4-5 weeks ago.

Have been sitting on my hands.
Being honest I like many sold even stocks I loved too early in hindsight over the last 12 months, but just moved onto another stock I liked and waited for a retracement in the one I loved.

Going to the extreme has been only the last week or so.
Selling everything including the kitchen sink was only today.


Yes I am bullish oil longer term.
However whilst I placed a target on it of maybe $64- for 2005 as more and more were calling it above US$60- this move .... I suspected it would fail in this attempt up.
Who knows, still sitting at US$56-.

Still of the view some oilers not valued at where they should be.
Not calling for a crash or anything so stupid.
Just the upmove in our market seemed to have stalled. US moving if anything downwards.
Last night just another nail in the coffin. Feel the US remains a bit under pressure for the next month.

We on the other hand have moved up as both Matt and Andrew pointed out for very good reasons. One is the resource price boom and the other is demand from this from China. On the P/E side their has been large increases in uderlying profits justifying the rise to date.

Long term, expect it to continue, just my own feeling and actions, time for maybe a pullback of more than 100 points from the high. Not a crash, just a bit of a correction.
Bottom pickers out in force this morning at 4,195 when I typed the original piece.
Market fall stalled for a while, but now back to new lows.

This is just one day and doesn't mean a thing. market still only off 2.4% from all time highs.

I am still looking to buy some of the quality oilers and coalers and other selected stocks, just felt it was time for the correction. Long term energy picture remains unchanged, however felt the US Fed's new stance might cause a harder landing rather than the soft landing all central banks aim for.

Looking for a level to buy, even today seeing some long term stocks I like off by more than the overall market and in some cases by a factor of two.

Myself wrightly or wrongly still sitting on the cash and not tempted even by todays action.

As you have correctly pointed out I may miss this great opportunity to buy on the dip for the correction.

Underlying fundamentals have not changed with any of the companies, just my own view rightly or wrongly US market needs a bit of a shakeout and we will see lower prices across the board, and better buying levels for our favourite stocks.

If this happenes ... even stocks that I love I find get smacked just as hard and in fact they get smacked hardest of all.

On the other hand maybe I am missing the boat again.

Thats life ..... been wrong before and very wrong before .... could be the pullback before 4,500 .......

Thanks for your thoughts guys ... given me some food for thought.

Shall sit pat for now. Patience is a virtue I sometimes lack ...... as I am sure we all do.

Best of luck




--------------------
All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
Mookie
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 11:43 AM
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In reply to: itucker on Wednesday 23/03/05 11:18am

Kahuna

Did you sell out of HDR? If one of the reasons for a correction is the high price of oil wouldn't that go against not holding HDR?


Mookie.

 
itucker
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 11:18 AM
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Hi,

It is difficult to fault most of the logic applied in your view except to ask how much of the upward correction did you miss waiting for the downward correction?

As you infer, the virtually inevitable rise in interest rates coupled with higher fuel costs will be feeding into total costs and eroding margins. Higher interest rates will demand a higher yield on stocks placing downward presure on SP's.

I think the banks have about topped out and I don't think I would buy one this year, even after a correction.

What I did find difficult to reconcile is your regular postings on oil with a 90% cash position. We know that most analysts have not yet plugged in anything like a realistic oil price and stocks like WPL, HDR, ROC etc have tremendous upside if the oil price averages say US$45 over the next few years. I personally find it very hard to believe it won't trade in a range of US$35 to US$70. I won't stop filling my car but I may have a bit less for grog.

Will any of this slow the development explosion in China & India. Perhaps a little but not much.

I see the next year as a stock and sector picking one but am certainly cautious and expect some correction in the June quarter. Perhaps a combination of buying things like oil and shorting banks could be the ticket?

I am pretty fully invested because I am expecting things to happen on most stocks I hold. Even though a correction will push those prices down I can't predict the timing of announcements either.

You are punting (on a very informed basis) there will be a major correction but maybe a bit more each way with selected stocks would be more balanced.

regards



 
Marnice
post Posted: Mar 23 2005, 10:54 AM
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In reply to: mminion on Wednesday 23/03/05 10:34am

From AIR today, recent analysts report on China - "stronger for longer" commodites sector is their take:

Don't You Worry About China, GSJB Were Says
March 23 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)

GSJB Were has recently returned from China, with the visit having reinforced the broker’s belief that Chinese demand for raw materials remains robust, and that growth in Chinese demand remains sufficient to keep key commodities markets in global deficit.

During the last visit (November) the analysts were unsure of the outcome of administrative tightening implemented by the government in April last, but this visit has improved confidence that the economy has stabilised, and that acceleration in growth now exceeds the risk of a slow-down.

Of course, an acceleration could spark further action from the government, but Weres does not believe this is of immediate concern. Rather, the visit has reinforced Weres’ "stronger for longer" commodities theme, such that its overweight resources sector recommendation remains.

Turning to commodity specifics, Weres noted that China’s oil storage program has barely begun. Coupling this with the Russian decision to send a pipeline to Japan and not China, increased Chinese future import demand is clear.

The steel industry maintains a very positive outlook, the analysts report, despite iron ore price rises. There is confidence that higher prices for steel can be passed on. Wuhan Iron and Steel has a surplus of long products, and will remain an exporter in the short term. However, the company believes China will remain a net importer of hot rolled coil for 2-3 years, and cold rolled steel for 5-10 years.

Information collected by the analysts has done little to settle their uncertainty regarding the volume of aluminium exports to be expected from China this year. However, they sense an increasing resolve from the government to curb growth in smelting capacity and metal exports.

>50% of copper consumption is going into the power industry, the analysts report, and this will continue to be a major source of growth in demand for copper in 2005. Fabricators, particularly in air-conditioning, are having difficulty passing on higher copper prices, and as such inventories have risen in finished products.

The analysts note that power shortages remain a key issue, with the situation little improved. A substantial number of power projects have progressed without government approval, leading to concerns that cancelled projects could have a negative impact on raw materials consumption growth. However, with the national power shortage, the analysts don’t expect net capacity addition to be reduced.

The massive Three Gorges Dam hydro-electric project will take more than a decade to build and fully commission, the analysts report, and then the annual additional capacity will be less than one tenth of China’s annual power demand growth. The analysts believe coal will be the mainstay for incremental power generation capacity for the foreseeable future.

All in all, positive feedback for the resources sector.

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=1582

cheers
marnice



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Patience is the companion of Wisdom
 
 


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