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OIL, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Jun 5 2021, 12:20 PM
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The oil industry looks set for a hugely profitable but accelerated decline towards extinction, as mounting climate pressures constrain the supply of capital needed for investment, driving up prices and cash flows for producers.

That is the theory gaining traction in the market after a landmark few months that have ramped up the forces behind the transition to low carbon energy beyond anyone's expectations.

An energy analyst says the perversity for oil markets is that the forces of the energy transition will have a far more profound impact on the supply side than on demand for a number of years.

Respected consultancy FACTS Global Energy estimates global oil demand will still increase by 9 million to 10 million barrels per day from 2019 levels by the time it peaks in the mid 2030s, then declining by just 7 million barrels a day by 2050.

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While net zero 2050 is an admirable aspiration, oil is not going anywhere


The analysts note that capital spending on upstream oil and gas production has in the past always been strongly correlated to changes in the oil price the year before, so the gains in oil prices so far this year should point to spending jumping by more than 30 per cent in 2022.

But nothing like that is expected to eventuate given changing corporate priorities, with international integrated oil companies leaning towards returning cash, paying down debt and directing capital to the energy transition, while upstream producers are focusing on strengthening their balance sheets given the question marks around long-term access to external capital, they said.





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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Apr 24 2021, 04:23 PM
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oil news (winds of head):

Oil prices held on at the end of the week, set to close out mostly flat from a week earlier. Oil prices are trapped between horrific downside risks, mostly in India, offset by growing optimism in the U.S. and to a lesser extent in Europe.

India’s oil demand in doubt. India posted several days of record-setting Covid-19 cases, and Bloomberg reports that demand for fuels could plunge by 20% in April. “Given the grim situation, it’s likely that the lockdowns could be in place for several weeks or even a couple of months,” said Senthil Kumaran, head of South Asia oil at industry consultant FGE. “India’s total key oil products demand will see a significant pullback.”

Biden pledges 50-52% cut in GHG; other countries up commitments. President Biden announced a goal of cutting emissions by 50-52% by 2030 at the climate summit on Thursday. Canada boosted its target from a 30% cut to a 40-45% cut. Japan raised its target to 46%, up from 26%.

Natural gas rally over. Bank of America said that natural gas “throws in the towel,” noting that the month of March saw weaker-than-expected industrial demand and warm weather, leading inventories to end the month at 1.78 trillion cubic feet, higher than anticipated, which erased the inventory deficit relative to the five-year average.

Natural gas production on the rise. Even as demand hit a lull, production in natural gas is ramping back up after a roughly 18-month hiatus. Rystad Energy came out with a note predicting strong production gains for the next three years and beyond. Both Rystad and Bank of America said the Haynesville shale, in particular, is looking strong.

China promises pullback on coal. China’s Xi Jinping said that China would “strictly limit” coal consumption over the next five years and then begin phasing it out after that.

U.S. Senate to repeal methane rollback. The U.S. Senate will repeal the Trump-era pullback on methane regulations next week.

New York sues Big Oil. New York City sued ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) for deceptive ads claiming their products were “emissions-reducing.”

Chevron lobbies U.S. against Myanmar sanctions. The New York Times reports that Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is lobbying the U.S. government to not place sanctions on Myanmar, following the military coup and brutal crackdown that has unfolded in the country since February. Chevron operates a large natural gas project in the country along with Total (NYSE: TOT).

White House reveals climate finance strategy. The White House unveiled its international climate finance strategy, which includes pushing lending arms of the government – U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the Millennium Challenge Corporation and the Export-Import Bank – to virtually eliminate fossil fuel lending, except in extraordinary circumstances.

Small companies buy Big Oil’s assets. The supermajors are pledging billions in low-carbon energy investments and committing to net-zero goals over the next decade. Meanwhile, smaller oil and gas companies are snapping up the shed assets.

Are peak demand forecasts accurate? Goldman Sachs believes oil demand will peak in 2026, while BP Plc believes the highest global demand growth is already over, and International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks the peak could come later, in 2030. However it’s framed, it is clear that the oil and gas industry is facing a turbulent future.

UN-backed climate finance group managing $70 trillion announced. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), a UN-backed group of assets managers, banks, investors, and insurers launched this week. The group's 160-plus members are responsible for over $70 trillion in assets, and “will work to mobilise the trillions of dollars necessary to build a global zero emissions economy and deliver the goals of the Paris Agreement," the announcement states. Participants include Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Munich Re, the Zurich Insurance Group and many others.

California to ban new fracking permits. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to announce a ban on new fracking projects beginning in 2024.

Lithium era just beginning. It’s been a big week for lithium, with a multi-billion-dollar mega-merger, a new major production deal in Chile, and funding for Europe’s first large-scale lithium refinery in Chile. Things are looking up for the vital battery metal.

Halliburton sank on “moderating” fracking forecast. Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) beat the consensus on earnings but saw its share price sink after it said that it expects fracking activity to moderate in the U.S. in the second quarter.

Total terminating contracts in Mozambique. As militant attacks show no signs of going away, Total (NYSE: TOT) is terminating contracts with some companies in Mozambique related to its $20 billion LNG export project. Analysts say the delay on the project could be at least a year.

Biden admin unwinds Trump auto policy. The Biden administration will restore the authority to California to set its own fuel economy standards tighter than federal standards, following the Trump administration’s effort to repeal that authority.

Public lands drilling pause extended. The U.S. Department of Interior extended its drilling pause on federal lands through June, a policy that mostly only affects the southeastern corner of New Mexico.

12 states call for ICE ban. 12 U.S. states called on the federal government to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035.

Kinder Morgan $1 billion Texas windfall. Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) said that it took in a $1 billion windfall from the Texas electricity crisis in February. “[W]e view KMI’s large beat as a ‘zero-sum-game,’ meaning someone (i.e. buyers of the gas) had to pay the bill, which could make for some interesting utility earnings calls,” Citigroup said.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Feb 27 2021, 08:24 AM
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Oil prices lost ground on Friday as energy companies in Texas and nearby states began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shut down by freezing weather and power outages.

Brent crude futures ended the session down $US1.02, or 1.6%, at $US62.91 a barrel while in New York, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $US1.28, or 2.1%, to settle at $US59.24. For the week, Brent gained about 0.5% while WTI fell about 0.7%. Last week, both benchmarks climbed to the highest in more than a year with WTI above $US60 a barrel.

The big freeze in Texas and the Plains states curtailed up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil production and 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas, according to US energy analysts.

And on Friday it was revealed that US energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs operating for the first time since November, according to the weekly Baker Hughes survey. US oil rigs in use fell by one to 305 last week, while gas rigs numbers rose one to 91, their highest since April 2020.

Despite rising for six months in a row, the combined count is still 393 rigs, or 50%, below this time last year. The total count is up from hitting a record low of 244 in August. the number of active oil rigs fell to a low of 172.

https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/02/21/com...-copper-copper/



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
cooderman
post Posted: Feb 3 2021, 09:53 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Feb 3 2021, 08:33 AM

Big breakout of sideways movement EB. Faster moving RSI[10] on H4 seems to be in overbought but would
not pay too much attention to that at the moment.
Attached Image




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early birds
post Posted: Feb 3 2021, 08:33 AM
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WTI technical analysis

Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil have responded to the bullish news, breaking out of the 3-week sideways range to hit the highest level in more than a year. From a technical perspective, the commodity has been consistently riding its 21-day EMA higher since mid-November, signaling a healthy uptrend. Meanwhile, the recent sideways consolidation has taken the RSI indicator back out of overbought territory, potentially clearing the way for a continuation higher as we move through February:

In the short term, the bias for WTI will remain bullish as long prices can hold the breakout above $54.00. After providing strong resistance over the last three weeks, this level should serve as support moving forward. To the topside, there’s little in the way of resistance until a minor high and psychological resistance at $60.00.

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just one of the studies , DYOR AS ALWAYS!!




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nipper
post Posted: Nov 25 2020, 09:00 AM
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Oil has surged to an eight month high overnight, with vaccine hopes and the smooth transition to a Biden presidency supporting risk assets across the globe.

A strong rally through November had put the oil market on track to reclaim its highs from late August, with hopes an effective vaccine could be rolled out within the next few months offsetting concerns over lockdowns and rising COVID19.

Brent crude surged 4 per cent to $US47.89 a barrel, its highest level since March 4, while West Texas Intermediate advanced 4.2 per cent to $US44.88 a barrel.

The strong surge has Brent crude up 27.9 per cent for the month, one of its best months on record



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


nipper
post Posted: Sep 6 2020, 12:27 PM
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is this an heroic assumption, or will it come to pass?
QUOTE
Oil companies are risking some $400 billion in stranded assets with their focus on petrochemicals production growth that relies on strong growth in demand for plastics, Carbon Tracker has said in a new report. ....

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-O...ded-Assets.html


QUOTE
While the major displacement of oil demand in the transport sector has yet to materialize as EV penetration has been slower than major projections estimated, the crusade against plastics has begun and will only intensify in the coming years. This would mean more initiatives for banning single-use plastics and more regulation in place for plastics recycling. Without regulation, the crusade will fail.According to Carbon Tracker, however, it will win, not least because of problems inherent in the plastics industry.

Plastics impose a massive untaxed externality upon society which this report estimates is about $1,000 per tonne ($350bn a year) from carbon dioxide, health costs, collection costs, and ocean pollution, the report authors wrote, adding that these can be mitigated through recycling, replacing with alternative materials, and improving the design and regulation.

If demand for plastics falls, then some 80 million tons of new plastics production capacity worth $400 billion will be stranded....




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Aug 12 2020, 09:58 AM
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https://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/lon...20200810-p55kc5

There are also rules that forbid trading with the goal of deliberately affecting the settlement. In 2008, Dutch firm Optiver was sanctioned by the CFTC for abusing the TAS mechanism and boasting about its exploits in emails. And in 2011, the agency introduced a rule prohibiting a practice known as “banging the close”, which it defines as trading heavily during the settlement period in one market to influence a larger position elsewhere.
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bang on close?? for sure , just look at last 10 minutes trade CME can have clues . i guess they just don't want to do it!! grrr.gif



 
early birds
post Posted: Jul 13 2020, 09:17 AM
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https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2020/07/13/ope...-ease-oil-cuts/

OPEC, specifically Saudi Arabia has blinked on global oil production curbs.

Confidence in the current level of global oil prices will take hit from reports that Saudi Arabia wants to slash the 9.7 million barrels a day production cut due to expire at the end of the month.

Media reports at the weekend said the OPEC + group, which includes Russia and several smaller producers will be asked to approve a Saudi move to trim the 9.7 million barrel reduction by 2 million barrels a day, to apply from August 1.

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the big swings already over , not sure at what level people can bet on oil again???? unsure.gif sadsmiley02.gif



 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 29 2020, 11:43 AM
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Chesapeake Energy filing for Ch 11 bankruptcy protection ..... that or a similar company; long awaited. I wonder how many more.

And the debt instruments floating around.; please, FED, do not buy them




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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