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Foreign Currency, Discussion
early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2021, 11:57 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 4 2021, 11:06 AM

Amusingly enough the author, the Peoples Bank of China, then went on to predict that the exchange rate would be stable.

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hi nipper
think of what RBA and Fed and all other major central bankers talk, have you see any difference??? they all the same!! jaw bone !! lmaosmiley.gif

to be honest , NO ONE here can predicting any currency's movement. if someone does, then he/she will be supper rich!! lmaosmiley.gif

best we can do is to do "educated guess" and with stops in hand[ prepare to be wrong]

financial system in china is different to amarica, but every country is different i guess. just need to understand how it works, then place a trade to profit from it!![ if one can profit from it. lmaosmiley.gif

all IMHO. though. without political bias !!



 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 4 2021, 11:06 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 4 2021, 10:06 AM

hi eb . I came across this , which is amusing and sadly too true

QUOTE
The RMB can appreciate or depreciate. No one can accurately predict the exchange rate. No matter if it is short term or long term it is certain that predictions of the exchange rate will not be accurate.

No matter if it is the government, institutions, or individuals, all should avoid being misled by predictions.


Amusingly enough the author, the Peoples Bank of China, then went on to predict that the exchange rate would be stable.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2021, 10:06 AM
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What is driving the US Dollar higher?: DXY

With the possibility of a stronger than expected NFP print for May, the DXY has gone bid on taper hopes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) was on a tear today. The US session began with the DXY selling off after Russia announced that they were exiting US Dollars from their Sovereign Wealth Fund. However, that move later reversed, and the DXY turned sharply higher with a better than expected ADP Employment Change figure for May, as well as, with a better than expected initial Jobless Claims figure for the week ending May 29th. Expectations for tomorrows Non-Farm Payrolls for May are +645,000. ( See Matt Weller’s complete NFP Preview HERE). But if good jobs numbers mean a stronger economy, wouldn’t that mean stronger stocks and a weaker US Dollar?

By now you know the story: better data means there is more of a chance that the Fed may do more than just “Talk about talk about tapering”. The worry is that with a better print, the Fed will announce tapering at their June meeting in 2 weeks. Tapering, or decreasing their $120 billion of bond purchases per month, would mean lower bond prices and higher yields. In addition, less support from the Fed would also mean lower stock prices and a higher DXY.

However, the risk for the NFP print is twofold:

1) it is weaker than expected

2) there is a large revision from the horrible April print (+266,000)

We also need to pay attention to the average hourly earnings figure. With higher inflation data lately, the Fed will want to make sure that inflation is feeding through to the employment data before they do anything. They have consistently said that they want to see a string of months of improvement in the labor market, which includes increases in pay. Expectations are 0.2% for May.

After moving lower for most of 2020, DXY bounced for almost the entire first quarter of 2021. Thus far in the second quarter, the DXY has been moving lower. After hovering around the 200 Day Moving Average near 91 at the end of April/beginning of May, price continued lower in a descending wedge formation. Price broke above the wedge on May 27th, and today, finally accelerated higher away from the wedge. The DXY traded to horizontal resistance today near 90.59.

With the possibility of a stronger than expected NFP print for May, the DXY has gone bid on taper hopes. Of course, the other reason for the bid could simply be profit taking ahead of the data, as the US Dollar has been falling since the first day of Q2. Watch for revisions to the April print, as well as Average Hourly Earnings for a better gauge on market direction ahead of the Fed in mid-June.

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DYOR

 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 3 2021, 08:58 AM
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US Dollar

There continues to be some demand near 90. Given its round number significance and that the zone held twice prior in 2021, this is understandable. But there’s also ample supply up near the 91-91.5 zone, which may slow down any true bounce attempt.

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early birds
post Posted: May 26 2021, 09:58 AM
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https://www.ft.com/content/408d4065-f66d-43...us_yahoo/auddev

The extraordinary stimulus measures in the US could undermine confidence in the greenback if inflation takes off


Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/408d4065-f66d-43...us_yahoo/auddev

Billionaire US fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller delivered an apocalyptic warning earlier this month that the dollar could cease to be the predominant global reserve currency within 15 years.

“I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances,” the chief executive of Duquesne Family Office declared.

He is not alone in expressing concerns about excess US demand, a more inflationary environment and accompanying dollar weakness. Such worries have been a contributory factor in the jittery equity markets of the past two weeks.

..
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i guess a lot of "old time" people here knew this , but USD still standing like strong cowboy....... cool.gif

 
early birds
post Posted: May 20 2021, 09:43 AM
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The US dollar was the strongest major and rose against all its peers during a risk-off session, allowing the US dollar index (DXY) bounce from 89.68 support (the February low) and printed a two-bar bullish reversal pattern (bullish piercing line). This is a scenario we had planned for from a technical perspective, but the tone of the session allowed it to materialise.

EUR/NZD was the strongest pair, and EUR/AUD broke above the resistance level highlighted in yesterday’s Asian Open report after enjoying its most bullish session in six and stopping just shy of our initial 1.5800 target. As prices spent most of the US session retracing, we are now looking for the 1.5700 breakout area to hold as support before its next leg higher.

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early birds
post Posted: May 19 2021, 09:46 AM
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US Dollar: The breakdown target is near 86.5, which would put it below the early 2018 lows.


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it's just TA stuff. i'm focus on geo--plitical events instead for this few days!!



 
early birds
post Posted: May 14 2021, 09:03 AM
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The bounce got a lot of attention, but USD remains in a downtrend… with a large amount of supply above it.

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but there isn't just Fed printing day and night, other central banks all do it. so how do we reserve the purchasing power?????????? unsure.gif

go long stocks, might be the only way!!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 11 2021, 09:48 AM
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The US dollar index (DXY) etched out a fresh low before finding support just above 90.00. Technically it could be due a bounce (however minor) but 90 remains the pivotal level over the coming session/s. Fundamentally there’s little reason to be bullish on the dollar but, technically at least, things are looking stretched down at those lows.
AUD/USD failed to hold onto earlier gains and formed a bearish pinbar which closed back beneath 0.7850 resistance. 0.7800 is the next level for bulls to defend over the near-term.
AUD/NZD saw another failed attempt to break above 1.0800. In yesterday’s report we suggested a daily close above this key level could hint at a bullish breakout, yet the bearish pinbar which closed beneath this key level keeps a break of its bullish trendline (from December’s low) a real possibility.
The Japanese yen caught a bid during a risk-off session on Wall Street, seeing GBP/JPY give bac earlier gains and form a bearish pinbar.

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DYOR !!

 
early birds
post Posted: May 10 2021, 08:55 AM
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The US dollar index printed a bearish engulfing / outside week, suggesting a break below 90.0 could be imminent.

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the chart looks scary as it is, but think it will be hold last support at this stage, worth to keep close eye on it for traders and investors!!



 
 


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