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The top of this cycle for ASX200, cash is king ?
nipper
post Posted: Jun 22 2020, 12:33 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jun 22 2020, 10:32 AM

and this
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Monetary and fiscal shock and awe saved the financial system and markets have rallied dramatically from the lows seen on 23 March. The world's governments and central banks built a bridge across the chasm as we were herded into hibernation. Now we are being allowed out and the great reopening is upon us. There is no turning back. The economy would not survive a return to lockdown and hibernation. The economic damage has already been colossal and it will take many months before we can quantify, and understand, the scale of the scarring. Sadly, some businesses will not have survived. Some sectors such as international travel and tourism, aviation, conventions and event management will be on life support, not to mention much of the hospitality sector.

Unemployment levels will remain high for some time, and youth unemployment will be even worse.

The most adversely impacted, as always, will be those on low-incomes and inequality will worsen even further.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2019/...a-facts-figures?

This is why there can be no turning back of the reopening or the extraordinary fiscal and monetary policies.

We need, as a matter of urgency, to get back to something approaching normality before it is too late and the defaults, both personal and corporate, start skyrocketing.

We already know that corporate insolvencies, loan, mortgage and rental defaults will soar once all the government support measures taper off.

We don't know how bad it will be, but we know that's what is coming.




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 22 2020, 10:32 AM
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here's a bit of a tale of our times. From a newsletter:

QUOTE
Can anyone, with a straight face, say that U.S equity valuations are not expensive?

Can they get more expensive?

Of course they can.

On 22 May Hertz filed for bankruptcy and the share price closed at $2.84 and 43,779 Robinhood (RH) investors held shares.

On 3 June Hertz opened at 80 cents and 63,000 RH investors held shares.

On 8 June Hertz traded at $6.25 and 142,000 RH investors held shares.


You can see for yourself. http://www.robintrack.net/symbol/HTZ

And if you wish to read more on this astonishing saga read the story below...it gets even better.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/business...stock-sale.html?




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  rlane  Pendragon  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jun 9 2020, 09:22 AM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Jun 9 2020, 09:09 AM

that's the nub of it
QUOTE
Arvidsson said there had been a growing backlash to the move among hard-hit communities, particularly the elderly and disabled, who have struggled with the transition to a predominantly digital model.
The assumption is that everyone has the skills and settings, physical or mental or just locational.

Any change tends to marginalise those who aren't in a situation to be able to cope (and then the clumsy provision of services to them comes at a disproportionate cost).



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Jun 9 2020, 09:09 AM
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The idea of removing cash completely from society has always been a very attractive aim of the financial institutions mand particularly the guvmint.
Firstly, the it costs the banks lots mulah to maintain the cash, keep it safe, distrbute it to ATM's etc, and they don't make any money out of hard cash. They could also cut down on security at branches, and maybe even cut the branches out completely. So naturally the bank would like to see its end
Secondly, the RBA has to physically print and mint the hard currency as well as maintain whats in circulation. So they would be happy to see the end of Cash.
Thirdly, the mandarins in the ATO and treasury see cash as a means of avoiding taxes and guvmint charges, so anything that gives them moreto spend has to be a winner.
Finally, the guvmint can put the onus on the private sector to do all their tax collecting, accounting, and get it on a more timely basis.
It also limits what the private citizen can do outside the all encompassing arms of the system.
However, perhaps the examples of whats happened in Sweden might be a warning to us all.
From ABC NEWS

QUOTE
As Australia flirts with the idea of a cashless society after coronavirus, Sweden has a warning: be careful what you wish for.
Key points:
A report predicts Australia could be cashless within two years
500,000 Australians still have a bank account with no linked debit card
A Swedish expert says moving too fast can have unintended consequences
Sweden is often cited as the most cashless country in the world.

It was already well on the way to digital-only payments before the pandemic was declared, and the virus has only served to hasten the demise of cash.

"If you walk in the city in Stockholm nowadays, most of the stores will have signs saying they don't accept cash anymore," says Niklas Arvidsson, an associate professor at Sweden's Royal Institute of Technology.

If you are one of the many Australians who now prefer to use a card over cash, this might not sound like such a bad thing.

But as Mr Arvidsson explains, there are now concerns Sweden went too hard too early and the rapid switch can have unintended consequences.Sweden has undergone a remarkable and comparatively rapid shift away from cash as its government and central bank left it to the market to decide what worked best.

Banks had no interest in keeping physical currency alive as they make no profit on cash purchases, and ATMs are costly to operate.

In fact, Mr Arvidsson said it was now difficult to even find an ATM outside a major city in Sweden.While the majority of Swedes are happy to trash the cash, Mr Arvidsson said there had been a growing backlash to the move among hard-hit communities particularly the elderly and disabled, who have struggled with the transition to a predominantly digital model.

He said there was even evidence some people were having to forego buying things because they couldn't access cash.

Such was the problem, the Swedish government was forced to step in and pass a new regulation that came into effect on January 1 and required banks to provide a minimal level of cash services.

Going cashless: who loses?
Money is taken out of a wallet
Small business owners and people relying on cash-in-hand jobs will be hardest hit as Australia goes cash-free.

Read more
The issue, Mr Arvidsson said, was the speed at which Sweden moved. And he urged Australia to learn from this.

"[Australia should] prepare people for a digital society in all its aspects, including payments," he said.

"That is something that the government in Sweden did not do.


Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
kahuna1
post Posted: May 10 2020, 08:03 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ May 10 2020, 07:56 PM

Sorry ...
American Pie the movie .... gym sock is being polite.




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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: May 10 2020, 07:56 PM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ May 9 2020, 07:42 PM

The pair of you guys make little sense.

Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 

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plastic
post Posted: May 9 2020, 07:42 PM
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In Reply To: kahuna1's post @ May 9 2020, 06:33 PM

If someone else can explain what the hell you are talking about I'll get it, otherwise you are quite welcome to keep your "secret" and feed the need to be the knuckle dragging alpha if that is where you draw your comfort from.

However, I am sure it will translate to something rather base when all said and done. And if that is the benchmark needed to attain dominance in a conversation that started off about downloading a privacy invading app under the pretence of healthcare then it is not a very high one and quite off the mark.

It even sounds a bit like losing sorely.






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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
kahuna1
post Posted: May 9 2020, 06:33 PM
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Plastic ....
You missed the pun ... time and time again ... now after 24 hours with your sock, your back ? With a quip ?


Ho ho ho ho .... obviously I had shingles not anything else. Bit hard to be concerned about an unborn child if it wasn't that.'
Possibly check inside your gym sock and see it there are any there among your efforts ?


Still amazed you think this virus is the Flu. Only goes to show the nuns were right about excessive gym sock use.



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All views expressed are my own opinions. While I take every care when posting no guarantee to the absolute veracity of the postings is given or implied. Please do your own reseach and consult a professional investment advisor before investing.
 
plastic
post Posted: May 9 2020, 02:20 PM
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Yes. But it's a recent thing. Back when Kahuna was a boy it wasn't around. Hence his susceptibility. However, as he alluded to he's probably being a bit modest as it was more likely to be herpes and his good conscience comes from not wanting to give that to anyone.



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What did Uncle Mel do to us?
 
myshares
post Posted: May 9 2020, 12:47 PM
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In Reply To: plastic's post @ May 8 2020, 07:26 PM

I am coming in to this a bit late... but

There is a vaccine for Chicken Pox in Childhood...

https://www.nps.org.au/australian-prescribe...ricella-vaccine

and a vaccine for Herpes zoster (shingles ) in adulthood. An even better vaccine for this indication was released in the USA 18 months ago and will get to Australia when they have enough supply !

https://www.nps.org.au/australian-prescribe...nd-who-benefits



Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  kahuna1  mullokintyre  nipper  rog  
 
 


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