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Nickel, Discussion
nipper
post Posted: Dec 9 2019, 10:02 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Dec 7 2019, 10:48 AM

"As Talk Of Legend’s WA Nickel Find Gains Pace, Orion Looks To Be Sitting Pretty Right Next Door"

- funny thing, markets. With LEG announcing, its share price more than doubles, while ORN is flat but the other 2 mentioned in dispatches, BOA and GAL, both slipping 20+%



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 7 2019, 10:48 AM
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As Talk Of Legend’s WA Nickel Find Gains Pace, Orion Looks To Be Sitting Pretty Right Next Door
QUOTE
Excitement is building around the expected release on Monday of the eagerly awaited assay results from the third hole drilled at Legend Mining’s (LEG) Area D prospect at its Rockford project in WA’s Fraser Range. Legend Mining was 4.2c a share ahead of going into a trading halt last week and a trading suspension this week, pending the release of the assay results.

Industry chatter is that Legend has made a significant nickel-copper discovery, with lots of talk about a 16m intersection of massive to semi massive sulphides having been encountered, with 20m of disseminated sulphides on either side.

If the whispers about the intersection being particularly rich - the chatter is for more than 4% nickel - then there will be some fun to be had for the juniors with a presence in the northern reaches of the Fraser. It was of course the 2012 discovery hole drilled by junior explorer Sirius Resources down south which went on to become the Nova nickel-copper deposit/mine, with Sirius taken over by Independence (IGO) in 2015 for $1.8 billion.

Independence has long believed the Fraser has more than one Nova to give up and has almost blanket coverage of the region’s prospective rocks, including an exposure to Legend’s Area D discovery through its 14.2% Legend shareholding.

Private “prospector” Mark Creasy is the other big player in the Fraser, thanks to his early pegging in the district after being impressed by what he saw from some rock kicking during an expedition for space junk from Skylab’s crash to earth in 1979. Creasy has the Silver Knight discovery to his name in the Fraser but because it is privately held, no one is sure if it is going to be another Nova or not. And for good measure, Creasy owns 26.8% of Legend.

Like the rest of us, Legend, Independence and Creasy will have to wait for the assays confirming Area D as something special before celebrating.... In anticipation of the results from Area D confirming a discovery, juniors with Fraser Range exposure have already been enjoying something of a share price celebration.

Galileo Mining (GAL), where Creasy is a 31% shareholder, has shot up from 11c since Legend went into a trading halt on November 28 to 21c, while Boadicea (BOA) has come up from 22c to 26c.

Today’s interest though is in Orion Minerals (ORN) which was trading yesterday at 2.8c to be pretty much were it was before Legend alerted the market to its Area D discovery hole, assays pending.
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2019/12/06/as-...ight-next-door/

- Lots of nearology happening here. one for you, Blackie, to look into/ tear apart?



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 5 2019, 09:58 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Nov 19 2019, 12:45 PM

Vale aims to boost nickel production by 70%
Cecilia Jamasmie | December 4, 2019 |
QUOTE
Brazilian mining giant Vale (NYSE:VALE) said on Wednesday it would hike nickel production by about 70% in coming years to 360,000 tonnes a year, mainly by expanding in Indonesia.

The Brazilian mining giant plans to exit its troubled New Caledonia assets but still aims to ramp up nickel output ahead of rising demand for electric batteries, executives said.


QUOTE
The plan for now is to shut the nickel refinery and stop cobalt production, which will result in a yet to be specified number of job losses, according to RNZ.

Vale said in November that it would write down its New Caledonia mine and incur a non-cash impairment charge of about $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter.

Nickel is the only base metal to have recorded gains this year, but prices for the key ingredient in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries have begun to fall on concerns that an expanded trade war between the US and several countries including China, Brazil, Argentina and France, may dent demand.

Last week, the metal hit its lowest in more than four months and posted its steepest monthly loss (18%) in eight years on faltering steel output from top producer China and waning impact from an Indonesian ore export ban.

https://www.mining.com/vale-puts-new-caledo...on-up-for-sale/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 19 2019, 12:45 PM
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Indonesia hopes for environmental nod soon for battery-grade nickel plants
Reuters | November 18, 2019
QUOTE
Indonesia’s coordinating minister who oversees mining said on Monday he hoped environmental impact studies for factories to produce battery-grade nickel chemicals would be completed by the end of the year.

The studies, known as AMDAL, need to be completed and approved by the environment ministry before investors can proceed, such as China’s stainless steel giant Tsingshan Group which aims to build a high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plant.

Asked whether the AMDAL would be issued before the end of 2019, the minister Luhut Pandjaitan said: “We hope so.”

He said investment plans for plants producing chemicals from nickel laterite were worth $3.2 billion, including the plant planned by Tsingshan and another planned by Indonesia’s Harita Group.

The government was revising a rule on managing waste from HPAL plants, Pandjaitan said, saying that the aim was to have this finalised within a month.

Indonesia wants to become a global hub for producing and exporting electric vehicles (EVs) to Asia and beyond, starting by processing its rich supplies of nickel ore into battery chemicals before it starts building EVs.

The country will stop exporting nickel ore from January 2020, two years earlier than originally planned, in order to handle processing at home.

Pandjaitan said the government would also issue a new rule to allow the import of used lithium battery components to be recycled into a new batteries in Indonesia.

(By Wilda Asmarini and Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by Edmund Blair)

https://www.mining.com/web/indonesia-hopes-...-nickel-plants/



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE
NICKEL TO DRIFT
The nickel price has been the best performer so far this year with 59% gains, spiking after top producer Indonesia brought forward a ban on ore exports by two years to Jan. 1.

But prices have largely absorbed the bullish news and aside from possible short-term spikes due to speculative moves are unlikely to settle higher next year, analysts said.

“The impact of the ore ban won’t really be felt until the second half of next year, and the reason for that is the Indonesian government has given ore exporters four months’ notice of the ban,” said analyst Jim Lennon at Macquarie.

Indonesian exporters are due to ship out an additional 80,000-100,000 tonnes of contained nickel before the end of the year, keeping Chinese producers well supplied during the first half of 2020, Lennon added.

The LME cash price of nickel, mainly used to make stainless steel, is expected to average $16,500 a tonne next year, down 2% from the current price.

The market deficit is expected at 30,000 tonnes next year, a rise from 26,000 tonnes forecast for 2019, according the poll, but still minimal when compared to 144,000 tonnes in 2018, according to the International Nickel Study Group.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-metals-b...l-idUSKBN1X717V



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 29 2019, 01:14 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 25 2019, 09:53 AM

Previously it was reported (see prior post) the ban would come into effect on 1 January 2020 - now it's immediately

Indonesian nickel miners to stop ore exports immediately
Bernadette Christina, Wilda Asmarini
3 MIN READ

QUOTE
JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia’s nickel miners agreed on Monday to stop nickel ore exports immediately, the country’s investment agency chief Bahlil Lahadalia said, after Jakarta last month brought forward a ban on shipments to January 2020 from 2022.


QUOTE
Expectations of the Indonesian ban have pushed nickel CMNI3 prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) up nearly 40% to around $17,000 a tonne now. In September, they hit a five-year high of $18,850 a tonne.


read more - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ts-im...f-idUSKBN1X7106



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 

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blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 25 2019, 09:53 AM
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QUOTE
Indonesian nickel ore ban: who will fill the supply gap?

in Freight News 25/10/2019

QUOTE
On 30 August 2019 the Indonesian government announced that a ban on nickel ore exports would come into effect on 1 January 2020 – two years ahead of its planned date.

The news caused an immediate price spike. And while this retreated as the market took a more measured view of the nickel outlook, there is little doubt that the ban will have significant implications for NPI supply in the coming years.

Let’s look at some of the immediate questions resulting from the expedited ban.


QUOTE
What does this mean for Chinese NPI production?
Chinese NPI production in 2019 will not be disrupted by the ore ban – we maintain our forecast at 570 kt Ni. But while current ore stockpiles provide a temporary cushion, we do expect to see cutbacks in Chinese NPI production from H2 2020.

And as Chinese NPI production declines, Indonesian NPI is ramping up. We expect Indonesian NPI output to achieve 36% year on year growth in 2019, reaching 360 kt Ni.


read more - https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/indone...the-supply-gap/



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 20 2019, 01:30 PM
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In Reply To: mullokintyre's post @ Oct 19 2019, 05:32 PM

If I recall rightly, there have been a couple of broker revised targets - on the downside - for IGO recently. This might explain them coming off the boil. Don't follow MCR that closely si not sure what's happening there.

This recent article appearing in FT might also explain - Can this year’s nickel rally keep going? a couple of extracts below

QUOTE
Traders point to large withdrawals of nickel from warehouses run by the London Metal Exchange. Stocks on the LME have fallen almost 50 per cent since August. The exchange is supposed to be a last resort for consumers of the metal when supplies are short.


QUOTE
Another reason for a fall: there is a surplus of stainless steel in China, which is reflected by a weaker premium for prices of nickel in China compared with global benchmarks, according to Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong.


read more - https://www.ft.com/content/12336556-ea9c-11...f4-d00e5018f061



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
mullokintyre
post Posted: Oct 19 2019, 05:32 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 19 2019, 12:18 PM

And yet both IGO and MCR my two nickel stocks have come off the boil; in recent times.
Obviously local players have not read the report by Tim Serjeant.
Mick



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sent from my Olivetti Typewriter.
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Oct 19 2019, 12:18 PM
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There’s more to nickel than just batteries
QUOTE
Tim Serjeant, Portfolio Manager/Analyst, Eley Griffiths Group

The supply side equation for Nickel as it stands today presents a bullish outlook.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) is ~950kt of the ~2.35Mt nickel market, so call it 40% of total supply. It has been a feature of the market since 2007 (all the incremental supply) where China has featured prominently, tapping cheaper ore sources, power and capital intensity advantages to drive down the cost of production for stainless steel. Forgive the history lesson, but the context is important.


read more - https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/recha...y-minerals-boom



--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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