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Bonds, Bonds are king
nipper
post Posted: Oct 31 2019, 09:01 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ Jun 4 2019, 08:16 AM

50-year Swiss bond yields have now risen to the salivating yield of minus .007% from minus 53 basis points


- and most yield curves no longer inverted (flat, but no longer doom-laden)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Jun 4 2019, 08:16 AM
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In Reply To: early birds's post @ May 30 2019, 07:33 PM

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/03/stocks-rise...s-in-check.html

US 10 years yield -----2.102%
US 2 years yield-------1.885%

but 200 sma didn't hold stock market
wondering what if 10 years----2 years yield curve inverted ???? that gonna be really ugly i guess!!






















5

 
early birds
post Posted: May 30 2019, 07:33 PM
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US 10 years and 3months yield curve inverted last night---briefly.
but it is not a classic one, even it is acting as a warning shots...

people please focus on 10years/2yearsb curve. if this one inverted -----then RUN not WALK---for your lives IMHO

now US market is holding 200 sma. not so sure how long it can hold it through. see how it goes tonight!! blink.gif




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nipper
post Posted: May 30 2019, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE
the Australian 10-year government bond yield hit a record low on Wednesday of 1.48 per cent to briefly trade below the cash rate.
- so, does a negative yield curve matter, or mean anything, these days? Of course, the likelihood of RBA dropping cash rate next week is odds-on



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

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nipper
post Posted: Apr 15 2019, 12:30 PM
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The Republic of Austria has a bond maturing in 20 September 2117 with a yield of 1.55%.

Yes, that’s 98 years from now.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: mullokintyre  
 
nipper
post Posted: Mar 25 2019, 05:16 PM
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10 year bonds hit 1.77% today. Record low.

Watch out!



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 

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nipper
post Posted: Mar 5 2019, 12:22 PM
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A
QUOTE
Suncorp has unexpectedly declared a residential mortgage bond worth $120 million may not repay all investors.
- some defaults by underlying mortgages.... at least some of the assets in arrears. Not a good sign

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/f...560c6a8001f4602

Complex tranches of subordination. ...not for the faint hearted (or those looking at return but not risk)



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 6 2017, 08:00 AM
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and the flow on effects?
QUOTE
Venezuelan bond prices slumped on Friday after President Nicolas Maduro signalled the cash-strapped country was looking to restructure and refinance its foreign debt, estimated to be about $US150 billion ($200 billion).

Investors – who have earned handsome returns in recent years by betting that Venezuela would continue to meet interest payments on its debt, despite its disastrous economic predicament – dumped bonds issued by Venezuela and its state-owned oil company after Maduro said he was calling a meeting of bondholders in Caracas to discuss a debt restructure. Venezuela's benchmark government bonds due in 2018 fell to 40¢ on the US dollar on Friday from 74¢ a day earlier.

Analysts says it's unlikely Venezuela will be able to reach a debt-restructuring arrangement because of US sanctions, introduced in August, that block US-regulated institutions and investors from buying new Venezuelan bonds, which would typically be issued as part of such a deal.

What's more, analysts say there will likely be tension between creditors, particularly since Venezuela's major allies, Russia and China, which have provided the embattled country with an estimated $US50 billion in oil-backed loans, are expected to jostle to ensure their loans are given priority in terms of repayment.

Without a debt restructure, the cash-strapped country will likely be plunged into a complicated and drawn-out default, that could be even more destabilising for financial markets than Argentina's $US80 billion debt crisis in 2001, which amounted to the biggest government default ever at the time.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/inve...t#ixzz4xb59M8XR



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
early birds
post Posted: Oct 13 2016, 06:54 PM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Oct 13 2016, 10:46 AM

tongue.gif
nipper, have look at US 10y movement last week. it's yield from little over 1.5% to peaked near 1.8%,
i'm guilty to myself that i covered my shorts way too early{ soon it hit 1.7%}
use 1.6% as bench mark, i will short it if it's yield goes to 1.6% handle again. i doubt it aussie 10y yield can move that quick. that is why i think about that pair trade.
to me just short the crap out US 10y might be a really good trade{ safer and make good money}, untill it;s yield hit over 2%. lmaosmiley.gif





 
nipper
post Posted: Oct 13 2016, 10:46 AM
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Even the 10 year holds great danger if you get it wrong, EB

.....over the past six days the 10-year government bond yield has surged from 1.908 per cent last Monday to 2.246 per cent, while the S&P/ASX 200 Index has inched higher.

This October, 10-year Australian bonds have risen 16 per cent and US Treasuries have lifted 14 per cent.

Investors have recently sold out of the bond yield proxies - REITs, utilities and infrastructure stocks - since their July highs



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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