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MARKET OUTLOOK - Healthcare, Pharma & Biotech, Perspectives & General Market Feeling
blacksheep
post Posted: Nov 22 2019, 05:36 PM
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Sohn stock pick: Regal’s Phil King - SHORT PolyNovo (PNV ASX)
QUOTE
There’s a lot of expensive stocks out there and one only has to look at the ASX: If the FAANG stocks look toppy trading on a multiple of 5 times sales, what then to make of the Aussie tech stocks trading on 13 times?

Well, “the biggest bubble in the Australian stockmarket today is Australian biotech,” King says, christening them the PPANCs (PolyNovo, Pro Medicus, Avita Medical, Nanosonics and Clinuvel.)

Regal is actually long Avita, but “we needed the vowel”. Healthcare stocks in Australia are prone to bubbles, King warns. We don’t have the big pharmaceutical companies like Europe, and Australians aren’t that good at valuing them.

Passive investing has surely helped fuel the rally, as four out of five PPANC stocks have joined the ASX 200.

PolyNovo is singled out as having the most downside. “We think the competition’s well established, the company’s still losing money and it’s never delivered on expectations,” King says, adding: “there’s no room for disappointment”.

Mark Twain once said a mining company is a hole in the ground with a liar on top.

An Australian biotech is a medical lab with a good salesperson on top.




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Nov 17 2019, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE
Momentum among stocks in the healthcare sector is tipped to continue in 2020 as a range of small and mid-sized biotech and medical device companies hope for clinical trial results before the year's end.

The healthcare vertical has been the best performer – up 34 per cent – of the ASX 200 indices this calendar year, and the bulk of the gains have come in the second half. The rise has been led by stocks such as CSL, Cochlear and Nanosonics, putting the sector ahead of other top performers such as IT and consumer discretionary stocks.

Morgans senior analyst Scott Power said the rise in the big stocks was filtering down into the mid and small-cap segment, as investors took a renewed interest in the life sciences space.

"In this low growth world, if you can deliver good growth, you're being rewarded. The sector is definitely positioned very well for 2020," Mr Power said. "The smaller end of town is very speculative and it tends to come in cycles. There was a lot of interest in resources 24 months ago, then it moved to technology and anything software-as-a-service (SaaS). Now we're seeing money flowing into these life sciences names.

"We're seeing interest in e-health, anything digital and anything to do with artificial intelligence or medical applications with an SaaS model. Then, companies with near-term catalysts are also being closely watched ... catalysts will attract eyeballs and if they're successful, multiples will go up immediately; if not, they come down pretty quick."

Businesses that have already been re-rated on account of strong clinical trial results or sales growth include Polynovo, Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals, Nanosonics and Opthea.

Among the companies Mr Power expects will release clinical trial results or announce news of regulatory approvals before the end of 2019 are Antisense Therapeutics, Volpara Health Technologies, ResApp and Novita Healthcare...

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20191103-p536zt



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 12:19 PM
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In Reply To: triage's post @ Sep 30 2019, 10:54 AM

yes its nice for a fund manager referring a CEO to a journo to allow them to talk their own book. (Nothing specific or market sensitive, mind you, just the feel good story)



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 10:54 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Sep 30 2019, 09:47 AM

Mark Diamond ... unusual name for a fat opera singer ... (when someone with vested intersts says that their company is at fair value ....)



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE
I have been in the sector for 18 years as a CEO and I don’t think that I have seen this level of significant and sustained value creation across multiple and diverse businesses," Antisense chief executive Mark Diamond said.

"For many years it was felt that local biotechs were chronically undervalued compared to their US peers, and so the only way to get fair value was a move to list on an US exchange, so I think this is really a very exciting development for both local companies and investors alike to see such outcomes on the local bourse."
...



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
nipper
post Posted: Sep 30 2019, 09:47 AM
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Small cap healthcare stocks surge to billion-dollar plays.

https://www.afr.com/companies/healthcare-an...20190929-p52vx1
QUOTE
A series of successful phase two clinical trials and increasing commercial adoption in the US market for Aussie biotech companies have driven the creation of three new billion-dollar healthcare stocks in just a few months.

In the past six months more than $3.25 billion dollars has been added to the valuations of a handful of small and mid cap healthcare stocks like Avita Medical, Opthea, PolyNovo and Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals. The unique momentum in the sector is in stark contrast to a year ago when some significant phase two clinical trial failures resulted in investors turning away from the risky sector.

Speaking to The Australian Financial Review, Bell Potter healthcare and biotech analyst Tanushree Jain said investors were recognising the growth potential of this next wave of biotech success stories, with some like Opthea also considered potential acquisition targets for big pharmaceutical giants on the back of stellar clinical trial results.

"We're now getting companies that are moving out of the research development phase, starting to generate revenue and having commercial products in the US market," Ms Jain said. "Then for companies like Opthea, its re-rating came on the back of a phase 2b clinical trial done out of large centres in the US, Australia and Europe and the results were spectacular. "It reflects a trend that more of the listed life sciences companies are maturing. The more risk that's taken off the table in terms of investment, the more reward you get."

This, Ms Jain said, had flow on effects for the sector as a whole, with positive results improving the perception of the industry. "It's a function of the fact that this is a bit of a specialty field and it's quite technical, so there's not that many people that really understand biotech," she said.

....Post-phase two trials is considered a sweet spot for big pharma companies looking to make acquisitions, as the new therapies or products have already had some rigorous testing and there's data suggesting its likelihood of success. Once stage three trials have been completed, the assets are much more expensive to buy.

There is also another wave of small cap biotech stocks going through stage two trials at the moment which investors could look at closely in the next few years, including Dimerix, Immutep, Starpharma and Antisense Therapeutics....




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: triage  
 

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nipper
post Posted: Apr 5 2019, 07:49 PM
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QUOTE
Shorten’s $2.3 billion Medicare plan has boosted Australia’s imaging and diagnostic companies, with share prices rising on the back of his funding commitment.

The Labor leader last night revealed healthcare will be the centre of his election campaign, with cancer treatment the focus of his Medicare plan.

The plan includes a $600 million investment to expand access to MRI machines and boost Medicare rebates for diagnostic imagining.

Integral Diagnostics was up almost 7 per cent on the Labor promise, while Capitol Health rose 4.5 per cent at 23c. Healius was up over one per cent at $2.89.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
triage
post Posted: Jan 21 2019, 10:49 AM
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In Reply To: nipper's post @ Jan 21 2019, 06:51 AM

Sounds a bit like buying a lottery ticket: you know someone is going to make a killing from the venture but what numbers do you need for that someone to be you. (like the car industry in the US in the early 20th century - there were hundreds of start-ups but only a handful came through).



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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." John Maynard Keynes

"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." Rudiger Dornbush

Mozart fixes everything and Messi is a dog

Said 'Thanks' for this post: nipper  mullokintyre  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 21 2019, 06:51 AM
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QUOTE
A new generation of healthcare providers, including international technology and retail giants, is expected to ramp up competition in Australia this year, as the digital health sector matures.

It comes as the aged care royal commission, which kicked off last Friday, shines a light on health carer shortfalls, poor record keeping and a lack of support for medical staff — problems digital technologies are designed to address.

But investors and industry insiders have warned Australian digital health companies are being forced offshore by red tape and anachronistic regulation, meaning local patients cannot reap the full rewards of the industry’s know-how, even as the value of the global market soars towards $US200 billion ($280bn).

Chris Nave, managing director of Brandon Capital — Australia’s largest healthcare investor — said it was certain that technology and data would be the mainstay of healthcare and patient management in five to 10 years’ time. “As an investor, the unknown is trying to work out where the opportunities are to support innovation that truly does change patients’ lives and generates an investment return,” Mr Nave said. "I think we are all still trying to figure that out and no one has cracked the code yet, including in the US. I think it will be an important space and it would be a foolish healthcare investor not to take the sector seriously and to try to find opportunities to invest in.”

The digital health market is expected to reach $US206bn globally by 2020, driven mainly by the mobile and wireless health market, and the Asia-Pacific is tipped to become a key region. In his top predictions for the health sector for 2019, Shane Evans, head of Minter Ellison’s national health industry group, said that the technology giants were set to lead disruption. He said a new wave of care providers, including international technology and retail giants, would enter the market and compete at a more sophisticated level.

But despite plenty of activity in Australia from start-ups in digital health, investment and regulation in the space is not keeping pace and a wide-ranging report has argued for increased support to help the industry grow. The report, Digital Health: Creating a New Growth Industry for Australia, also argues that the sector is not attracting the venture capital it needs in Australia.

It says one reason is that Australia is proportionately well behind other nations investing in this area. “Many digital health start-ups are departing Australia and moving directly into investment-readiness programs in major markets due to the perceived lack of capital for digital health companies,” the report warned. The new report, released by digital health business accelerator ANDHealth, revealed that the September quarter in 2018 saw more funding pour into digital health than any previous quarter on record, with funding exceeding $US4.5bn globally.

“The opportunity for Australia to capture significant investment, become a destination for inbound digital health research and development, alongside becoming a world-leading exporter of digital health products, is significant,” the report concludes.

Digital health represents a technological change that covers every aspect of the healthcare paradigm from prevention to diagnosis, management and treatment. It is also transforming the way frontline healthcare services are created, delivered and measured. There are five main areas of digital health: telehealth, medical records, patient management, mobile health and connected devices.

ANDHealth chief executive Bronwyn Le Grice said that for Australia to succeed in digital health, there needed to be widespread understanding that the sector went beyond health information technology and infrastructure, and that digital health was not a subset of the medical devices sector.

“It encompasses much more than health software and electronic medical records and has greater economic impact potential than medical technology alone,” the ANDHealth report outlines.

Brandon Capital’s Mr Nave said Australia’s digital health sector was in its infancy. He said a lot of people were talking a big game around digital health, with lots of noise and activity. Brandon Capital is seeing about two digital health businesses a week. “We are seeing bright, enthusiastic teams with interesting ideas but no real understanding about implementation in the healthcare setting,” he said.

Mr Nave said for him as an investor to be attracted to a digital health company or product, it had to improve patient outcomes, provide information that changed a doctor’s treatment decision or lower the cost of healthcare. [He] added that one of the fundamental challenges for the emerging sector was getting paid. Government and insurer systems were not set up to reimburse for the use of these new innovations.

The ANDHealth-commissioned report raises concerns about historic reimbursement frameworks and regulatory guidelines not being originally set up to mould to new emerging technologies.

“Across many sectors, including healthcare, existing regulation often fails to keep pace with new technologies, leading to regulatory grey areas and limiting the rate at which the digital health sector can deliver transformative solutions,” the report said. “Feedback from Australian digital health entrepreneurs suggests it is easier to access customers and sell their products and services overseas than in Australia, due to perceived regulatory, reimbursement and market implementation barriers.”

Healthcare is seen as one of the last remaining major industries to be significantly disrupted by advanced technology but it is certain that such disruption will happen at some stage in the future.

Minter Ellison’s Mr Evans said the emergence of digital healthcare solutions was a key sector driver.

“We are on the cusp of a new frontier in the healthcare sector as digital service delivery to patients and care recipients becomes a much bigger day-to-day reality,” he said. “In healthcare, the customer is increasingly in charge, demanding personalised, convenient care. They want the doctor, or even the healthcare provider, in their home, and they can because technology is an enabler.”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/t...44eb5b1feec8359

((as a footnote; Brandon Capital work in lifesciences area, hardly the full range of healthcare. http://www.brandoncapital.com.au/ ))



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  triage  
 
nipper
post Posted: May 22 2018, 08:53 PM
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AI will expand the work of radiologists, not replace them
QUOTE
Recent advances in artificial intelligence have led to speculation AI might replace human radio­logists one day. Researchers have ­developed deep learning neural networks that can identify pathologies in radiological images such as bone fractures and potentially cancerous lesions, in some cases more reliably than an average radiologist. For the most part, though, the best AI systems are on par with human performance and are used only in research settings.

That said, deep learning is rapidly advancing, and it is a much better technology than previous approaches to medical image analysis. This portends a future in which AI plays an important role in radiology. What does this mean for radiologists? We’re confident most radiologists will continue to have jobs in the decades to come — jobs that will be ­altered and ­enhanced by AI. We see several reasons radiologists won’t disappear from the labour force.

First, radiologists do more than read and interpret images. Like other AI systems, radiology AI systems perform single tasks. For example, the deep learning models we previously mentioned are trained for image recognition, such as detecting a nodule on a chest CAT scan or a haemorrhage on a brain MRI. But thousands of such recognition tasks are necessary to identify all potential findings in medical images, and only a few of these can be done by AI today. Furthermore, image inter­pretation represents just one set of tasks that radiologists perform.

Radiologists also consult with other physicians, treat diseases, perform image-guided medical ­interventions, relate findings to other medical records and discuss procedures with patients, among other activities. Even if AI were to take over image reading, most ­radiologists would turn their focus to these other essential activities.

Second, clinical processes for employing AI-based image work are a long way from being ready for daily use. Even among deep learning-based nodule detectors that are approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, there were different priorities: the probability of a lesion, the chances of cancer, a nodule’s location. These distinct focuses make it very difficult to embed deep learning systems into current clinical practice.

Third, deep learning algorithms for image recognition must be trained on “labelled data”. In radiology, this means images from patients who have received a ­definitive diagnosis of cancer, a broken bone or other illness. In other types of image recognition where deep learning has achieved success, AI has been trained on millions of labelled images, such as cat photos on the internet. But there is no aggregated repository of radiology images. They are owned by vendors, physicians and patients, and collecting enough data for AI training will be challenging and time-consuming.

Finally, changes will be ­required in medical regulation and health insurance for auto­mated image analysis to take off. Who’s responsible, for example, if a machine misdiagnoses a cancer case — the physician, the hospital, the imaging technology vendor or the data scientist who created the algorithm? And how will healthcare payers reimburse an AI diagnosis? All these issues need to be worked out, and it’s unlikely that they will see fast progress. AI radiology machines may need to ­become substantially better than human radiologists — not just as good — to drive regulatory and health insurance changes.
Harvard Business Review

Thomas H. Davenport is the president’s distinguished professor in management and information technology at Babson College. Keith J. Dreyer is vice-chairman of radiology and chief data science officer at Massachusetts General Hospital.



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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 
 


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