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STOCK PICKS FOR 2018
blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 6 2018, 10:36 AM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Jan 2 2018, 09:48 PM

Jan 5 2018 at 11:00 PM Updated Jan 5 2018 at 11:00 PM
extract - many other companies quoted see link
Australian fund managers reveal best long and short ideas for 2018
QUOTE
Five top short ideas

Karen Towle, Tribeca – Updater (UPD)

"With little in the way of revenue, no earnings in sight and a $700 millions plus market cap, the share price has run too hard."

Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes – Tesla (TLSA:NASDAQ)

"Over-hyped, thematic 'disrupters' are increasingly vulnerable to a fight-back from strong incumbent competitors."

Ben McGarry &Sam Granger, Totus – Get Swift (GSW)

"Promotional partnership announcements not supported by revenue generation."

Chad Slater, Morphic – PRADA (1913:HK)

"It seems something is wrong with the brand. Something is also wrong with the treatment of shareholders."

John Deniz, Paragon – Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

"Pilbara is a highly promoted story, where management are aggressively guiding for Stage 1 first concentrate production by June 2018."

Five top long ideas

Harry Cator, DMP – Syrah (SYR)

"Syrah is in production and fully funded for all current development plans – the only graphite miner ex-China in such a position."

Matthew Ryland, Greencape – Premier Investments (PMV)

"There is no peer globally to Smiggle, and those who have tried have so far failed."

Tim Carleton, Matt Parker, Auscap – Fairfax (FXJ)

"The Domain spinoff has highlighted the undervalued nature of the remaining parts of the business."

David Prescott, Lanyon – Global Construction Services (GCS)

"In a market that is awash with overpriced stocks, GCS is currently trading on a forecast single digit PE multiple."

Steve Black, Ed Prendergast, Pengana – HUB 24 (HUB)

"HUB's platform offer planners far greater functionality than the traditional bank owned legacy platforms."


Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/australian-fund...4#ixzz53MNxnxRt




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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

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blacksheep
post Posted: Jan 2 2018, 09:48 PM
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9 Resources stocks for 2018 - David Coates, Peter Arden & Duncan Hughes
Bell Potter
BELL POTTER
Stockbroker
Aeon Metals (AML)
Pantoro Limited (PNR)
Fortescue Metals Group (FMG)
Gold Road Resources (GOR)
Orocobre Limited (ORE)
Xanadu Mines (XAM)
Danakali Ltd (DNK)
West African Resources (WAF)
Sovereign Metals Ltd (SVM)
More details - https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/9-res...n-duncan-hughes



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The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
nipper
post Posted: Jan 1 2018, 03:14 PM
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Round table. ....
QUOTE
What are some of your top stock picks for this year?

HT: BHP. The company is displaying a new found capital discipline, valuations remain attractive and a moderation in commodity prices should support plenty of free cashflow. Caltex. Eighty per cent of the company's value is derived from its high quality infrastructure assets which can't be replicated. The company has an under leveraged balance sheet and capacity for increased distribution of franking credits. Caltex is a potential target of shareholder activism, which may unlock more value. Qantas. Qantas's loyalty program provides for a long-term source of capital. The company has negative working capital which means it is a beneficiary of rising bond yields. Qantas' strong free cas flow generation suggests further buyback possible.

JT: Boral, James Hardie, Coca-Cola Amatil and, among the smaller names, [waste management firm] Bingo Industries.

DC: We like Origin Energy, with growth now coming from both its upstream LNG venture and its domestic energy markets business. We also like Aristocrat as a still reasonably priced growth stock in Australia's expensive universe of growth stocks. BHP outperformed the market in 2017 but only just, and it underperformed the broader resource sector. We like the miner's cash generation story for 2018 and see it as relatively cheap.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/leading-equity-...0#ixzz52uHgY27P




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"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: early birds  
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 30 2017, 12:27 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 30 2017, 12:02 PM

This author is focused on TSX stocks - mentions sectors to avoid and get into

extract
The one sector you want to own in 2018 (and 3 sectors to avoid)
CEO.CA | about 4 hours ago

QUOTE
AVOID:

Utilities – The utilities sector performs poorly during periods of rising interest rates because utilities stocks are treated similar to bonds by investors (due to their high dividend yields). We have already begun to see investors flee utilities as yields spiked higher this week:

REITs – For essentially the same reason you want to avoid utilities, REITs are also on the avoid list. Real estate valuations are also affected by interest rates, not only because the price of debt (mortgage rates) goes up but also cap rates increase which usually means the denominator (property values) decreases. The market has also begun to dump REITs this week after a relatively strong year for the sector in 2017:

GET INTO:

Commodities – Fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach has recently been vocal in saying that now is the time to own commodities "We're right at that level where in the past you would have wanted commodities instead of stocks." – Gundlach cites the following chart to illustrate how cheap commodities are relative to equities:

There are mounting signs that the uranium market is finally turning a corner; as the global supply/demand balance moves into undersupply sooner than previously expected due to recent supply cuts from Cameco and Kazatomprom

Copper may not seem too sexy to most people, however, make no mistake that copper is a great way to play the looming electric vehicle boom while remaining underpinned by a strong long term supply/demand dynamic (declining mine ore grades and strong global growth)::


read more - http://www.mining.com/web/one-sector-want-...-sectors-avoid/




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 30 2017, 12:02 PM
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Suggestions from today's Australian - remember, DYOR
101 wealth ideas for 2018
How best to invest in 2018? Here, in part 2 of a two-part special, The Weekend Australian has some suggestions.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business
Some of the stocks mentioned are
Battery Boyos - ORE, AJM, KDR, SYR, ARL, RFX, PLS
Gold - ARV, - and fellow conglomerate hopefuls VXR, DEG, DGO, SEG, MZN, KZR - BRB, GOR, CMM,RRL
Base Metals - MLX, OZL,
Coal - UNV,
O&G - WPL,AWE, SGO, TDO,FAR,
Tech Tiddlers - CL8, CAG, CTI
Tech Tyros - XRO, IEL, AYS, WTC, TPM, APX, NXT,MNF, TME
Biotechs - ANR,
Pots of Potential - MNY, AXL, CCP, ECX, PTM
Infrastructure - CIM, LLC
Soft Commodities - ABT, BFC, A2M, BGA, RRF,
Medical Musings - - MVP, VRT,
Healthcare - LHC, IDX, SOM,
Industrials - BXB, BHP, ABC, CCL, BKW, GMG, AGL, QUB
Plus a number of others in Managed Funds, REITS, etc, etc.





--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington

Said 'Thanks' for this post: User  
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 30 2017, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE
The theory is simple. Examine the 30 companies on the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the end of the year, and find the worst-performing 10 stocks. Eliminate those that are not paying dividends, and you've got a group of companies that may well be in line for a big bounce in the following year.

... companies that are still paying dividends should still have a working business model, and may have been sold off due to things outside their control – commodity price, industry conditions or the like.
the Australian context is a bit narrower,
with banks and miners, rather than industrials
QUOTE
which of the local 2017 dogs could bark in 2018?

Domino's Pizza was the worst performer of the year in the ASX 100, down 30 per cent, followed by Telstra (down 22 per cent), Vocus (down 18 per cent), Brambles (down 17 per cent) and Harvey Norman (down 16 per cent).

The next five were GrainCorp (down 12 per cent), Coca-Cola Amatil (down 11 per cent), QBE Insurance (down 10 per cent), Fortescue again (down 9 per cent) and Healthscope (down 8 per cent).




--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne
 


blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 14 2017, 01:39 PM
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A couple of predictions for 2018 - both stocks and commodities - from Fnarena/UBS

QUOTE
A glance through the latest expert views and predictions about commodities. Silver; gold; copper & nickel; 2018 outlook; and miners.

-Potential for silver to rally after lacklustre 2017
-Gold outlook deteriorates, negative backdrop for gold equities
-May be hard for nickel names to recapture 2017 highs
-Moves by China to manage growth may produce headwinds later in 2018
-Morgan Stanley singles out miners with additional options as costs and expenditure likely to rise


QUOTE
2018 Outlook

With a number of commodities trading above long-term forecasts, UBS envisages a risk to the downside as the Chinese winter passes and supply returns to the market. These commodities include alumina, manganese and coal. However, the broker expects China's focus on reforms and pollution to continue through 2018.

UBS retains a preference for BHP Billiton ((BHP)) over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) as BHP is expected to announce capital management. UBS upgrades Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) to Buy, as value is envisaged in these stocks.

Metallurgical coal prices are revised up 16-23% for 2018-19 amid a view that Chinese authorities will manage domestic coal output to target higher-than-market prices in order to help pay for capacity reforms. Demand drivers for thermal coal are expected to ease throughout 2018 but UBS expects ongoing safety issues will keep the Chinese coal market tighter, and prices higher, for another year or two.

The biggest changes to the broker's forecasts are a 16% lift to hard coking coal forecasts, an 11% lift to alumina, 9% lift to oil and 7% lift to iron ore, while platinum and silver are downgraded. Platinum is downgraded by -8-15% across the forecast horizon to reflect a view that it will be weighed down by themes in the automotive sector. This also takes into account are more benign outlook for gold.




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
nipper
post Posted: Dec 12 2017, 07:11 AM
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Top five small cap stocks for 2018
QUOTE
Before I get to the "five companies for your Christmas hamper", I thought I would outline the types of small caps I spend time investigating. It's worth noting there are nearly 2500 companies listed on the ASX and more than 2000 fit the definition of a small cap. If you believe diversification is in any way important to investing, you cannot avoid small caps.

There are three types of Australian small cap — the first is like Usain Bolt: hard to catch, but if you can, you've won the gold medal. These are high growth companies, whose earnings are not dependent upon the economy. Examples are infant formula producer Bellamy's and medical technology company ImpediMed.

The second is more like a fallen track star, trying to rebuild his career. You know the talent is there, it's a matter of getting the mechanics together. These are large companies that have fallen on hard times.

The third is the marathon runner. These industrial companies chug along producing double-digit-earnings growth, but are ignored by the market. Their earnings are generally geared towards economic conditions, yet they have an ability to grow across the cycle. Furniture retailer Nick Scali is one such company

The last category is a bolt from the blue: an athlete who wins out of nowhere, like Australia's ice skating gold medallist Steven Bradbury. These companies have a stash of assets that aren't valued by investors and can release this hidden value at any time (not just Christmas). Here are my five

Melbourne IT (MLB)
The IT services firm has made an art form of reinventing itself since we first recommended it some six years ago, and boy has it paid off, having more than trebled in value. It started off as a hidden value play and has transformed f through divestment and acquisition into a growth proposition. And who doesn't want growth these days? It was less than $2 this time last year and now trades at $3.59, and is looking to report 20 per cent growth, much of it due to acquisitions. I've been taking some profits off the table but we're looking to buy back in if there is weakness.

Bentham IMF
The litigation funding group has also been on a tear, having traded this time last year at $1.64 and is now almost 50 per cent higher at $2.44. Again, I'm not buying after such good gains, but this company's management has a long track record of delivering strong return on equity of close to 20 per cent through consistently winning cases.

Elders (ELD)
Five years ago Elders was a faded agribusiness brand at $2.55 but it's recent performance makes it look like a Usain Bolt small cap. Trading at almost $7, it's up 55 per cent in three months and the stock still holds plenty of promise with the deep interest in Australia agri-related companies.

Mayne Pharma (MYX)
The performance of this specialty pharma stock is almost the exact opposite to Elders. It was a growth stock, where management led by Scott Richards had made the first of a series of successful corporate manoeuvres that transformed the stock from a one-trick pony into a global pharma group. Later capital raising showed it had a very wide level of support across the market with some big name investors on board. Now it's a fallen track star, picking itself up off the canvas. It's highly speculative but I'm a believer in Richards and his team.

Cooper Energy (COE)
The energy market is fascinating and it doesn't get more interesting than this company, where the share price has suffered recently from its big issue of shares, which is what happens when you are transforming a company with heavy capital requirements. Cooper is thinking big in its quest to transition from an onshore producer to an offshore operator and project developer. It will be a big beneficiary of climbing domestic gas prices.
Richard Hemming is an independent analyst who edits www.undertheradarreport.com.au



--------------------
"Every long-term security is nothing more than a claim on some expected future stream of cash that will be delivered into the hands of investors over time. For a given stream of expected future cash payments, the higher the price investors pay today for that stream of cash, the lower the long-term return they will achieve on their investment over time." - Dr John Hussman

"If I had even the slightest grasp upon my own faculties, I would not make essays, I would make decisions." ― Michel de Montaigne

Said 'Thanks' for this post: blacksheep  early birds  User  
 
Nopoo
post Posted: Dec 12 2017, 01:24 AM
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$CONE.V Cryptocurrency & Blockchain


https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid...;qm_symbol=CONE




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Nopoo
 
blacksheep
post Posted: Dec 11 2017, 02:38 PM
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In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Dec 10 2017, 08:56 PM

Livewire Christmas Cracker #6: A mid-cap taking the reins on data storage - insight is from Dawn Kanelleas, CFSGAM

QUOTE
We invest in Next DC, Australia’s largest national independent operator of carrier-neutral, energy efficient data centres for three reasons:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/livew...campaign=buffer
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=nxt

Attached File(s)
Attached File  nxt.png ( 89.3K ) Number of downloads: 7

 




--------------------
The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Edgar Fiedler

If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter. George Washington
 
 


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