NUF, NUFARM LIMITED

[blacksheep]

NUF AGM on Thursday 6 Dec - "Will provide an update on the impact of drought. Questions about Glyphosate safety too"

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[nipper]

Things that cause cancer are all around us, if you believe the news — how worried should we be?

The 2015 IARC report on glyphosate concluded that "glyphosate is probably carcinogenic to humans" and placed it in the category Group 2A — along with consuming red meat, drinking very hot beverages, and shift work that disrupts your circadian rhythm.

Glyphosate resurfaced in the news this year when a jury in a US court case declared the weed-killing product Roundup was a factor in causing a man's terminal cancer, and that the company Monsanto (now Bauer) failed to warn of its risks.

Despite the IARC using considered language, stating that there was "limited evidence in humans for the carcinogenicity of glyphosate" and that "a positive association has been observed for non-Hodgkin lymphoma", the looming shadow of a chemical giant can influence how people think about glyphosate and cancer.

Dr Lamberts said when it came to dealing with big corporations like Monsanto, "hardcore tribalism" often kicked in.

"Monsanto is cast as the nasty company that doesn't give a toss about anyone else. Which means that any negative stuff [about glyphosate and cancer] is going to be believed and amplified," he said...

https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v...ncer%2F10386298

[nipper]

Nufarm: Why buy Nufarm?
- Blake Henricks, Firetrail Investments:

Why buy Nufarm? ,..........
......... Industry consolidation and Omega 3.

Nufarm has become undervalued because of the Australian drought and their distribution of a specific weed killer commonly used in crops. The company has had two stumbles, but Mr Henricks believes it presents great value at today's prices. The industry is now more consolidated than the Australian banking market. That means Nufarm can take organic market share as competitors are distracted doing M&A, in short, Nufarm is a beneficiary of industry consolidation.

Nufarm has a technology which earns nothing today but is worth $1 billion according to Firetrail. Humans rely on small fish as a source of Omega 3, growing around 6 per cent per annum. Henricks expects no increase in ocean based supply of Omega 3 because of over-fishing. But it can now be grown from plant-based canola and Nufarm can take 20 per cent market share of that supply gap.

Most of the regulatory approvals have come through, and it is trading on less than seven times EV to EBITDA today because the market has over-reacted to the drought and glyphosate concerns. One of the great strategies is to buy in drought and sell in rain, Mr Henricks said. He strongly believes Nufarm is well placed around all reasonable scenarios related to glyphosate outcomes.

Valuation of $10.40.

... Sohn Hearts and Minds

[blacksheep]

In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 9 2018, 02:57 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Bayer AG failed to persuade a California state judge to set aside a jury’s verdict in the first trial over allegations that its Roundup weed killer causes cancer, but the judge said damages should be slashed to $78.6 million from $289 million.

San Francisco Superior Court Judge Suzanne Ramos Bolanos on Monday rejected Bayer’s arguments that the jury didn’t have any basis to conclude that the herbicide caused a former school groundskeeper’s cancer.

The decision isn’t a legal precedent for thousands of related lawsuits across the U.S., but it will encourage plaintiffs to press forward with their claims. Bayer said it plans to appeal the ruling.

For Bayer, the ruling “is not good news,” said Thomas G. Rohback, a trial lawyer who isn’t involved in the Roundup litigation. “From Bayer’s perspective the bigger concern is it’s saying there was enough science to support the plaintiff’s case.”

read more - https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/bayer-...dict#gs.wB3cJTs

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[blacksheep]

In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 8 2018, 02:45 PM

Calls for inquiry after Four Corners report on Monsanto and glyphosate chemical, Roundup

The Federal Opposition has moved for a Senate inquiry into the independence of Australia's agricultural chemical regulator after Four Corners raised questions over how it is funded.
But the Federal Government said the call was purely political and stands by the independence of the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority (APVMA).

read more - http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2018-10-0...nquiry/10355422

[blacksheep]

In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Oct 3 2018, 02:02 PM

ABC Four Corners story tonight on glyphosate

Cancer Council calls for review of weed killer Roundup
Most home gardeners will have a container of the weed killer Roundup in the shed.

Its active ingredient, glyphosate, is the most commonly used herbicide on the planet.

A Four Corners investigation has revealed the chemical hasn't been formally reviewed by the Australian regulator in more than two decades.

That's despite glyphosate being classified as a "probable human carcinogen" by the World Health Organisation's cancer agency in 2015.

And you can see more on that story tonight on Four Corners.

Duration: 3min 26sec
Broadcast: Mon 8 Oct 2018, 8:04am

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[blacksheep]

In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 26 2018, 10:03 AM

SP continues to head towards $5.85 issue price. Currently @ $6.065. FWIW, yesterday Credit Suisse cut it's target to $8.49 - from a previous $8.96

Two x notable short alerts (indicating the stock has been shorted more than 0.5% on the day) reported on Monday & Tuesday. Current position @ 27 September 2018 = 8.50%

Tue 2nd Oct, 2018 1,880,845 327,704,975 0.57% 3,868,610 48.62%
Mon 1st Oct, 2018 1,644,609 327,704,975 0.50% 4,547,514 36.17%

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=NUF

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[blacksheep]

In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 27 2018, 10:47 PM

According to this article -> More Capital, But Risks Still Pervade For Nufarm

A multitude of risks beset Nufarm and, in downgrading forecasts, several brokers suggest it may take time for the stock to re-rate.

-A return to growth expected as recent initiatives are progressed
-Europe projected to reach 45% of group operating earnings in FY19
-Glyphosate regulatory issues may linger

Sumitomo, the company's largest shareholder, has elected not to participate in the rights issue. Bell Potter suspects this may cause the market to shift its view, to Sumitomo being a seller rather than a suitor for the business, and result in a potential stock overhang. Deutsche Bank agrees the fact Sumitomo did not take up its entitlement could create a dampener for the stock.

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2018/09/2...ade-for-nufarm/

[blacksheep]

In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 26 2018, 10:03 AM

AFR reporting - Nufarm's brokers seek buyers for $75m shortfall - that's a fair chunk and that's just for the institutional portion - retail still to come

[blacksheep]

In Reply To: blacksheep's post @ Sep 25 2018, 02:06 PM

Deal priced at $5.85c/share

Entitlement Offer
Under the Offer, eligible institutional and retail shareholders are invited to subscribe for 3 new Nufarm shares
(“New Shares”) for every 19 existing Nufarm shares(“Entitlement”) held as at 7:00pm (AEST) on Monday, 1
October 2018 (“Record Date”).
All shares offered under the Offer will be issued at a price of $5.85 per New Share, which represents a:
ï‚· 11.9% discount to dividend-adjusted last close price of $6.642
on Monday, 24 September 2018
 10.4% discount to the dividend-adjusted theoretical ex-rights price (“TERP”)3
of $6.53
Approximately 52 million New Shares will be issued under the Offer. New Shares issued will rank pari pasu with
existing shares except that they will not be entitled to the FY18 final dividend of 6 cents per share.